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000
FXUS61 KCAR 262258
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
555 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR WEST CENTRAL REGION, SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH WIND GUSTS CONTG TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NW
AND FAR NE PTN OF THE FA THIS MID AFTN...WE DROPPED THE REMAINING
PTN OF THE WIND ADV. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE TIL 5 PM EST OVR OPEN...HIGHER TRRN LCTNS SUCH
AS KFVE AIRPORT... BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HIGHER WINDS ALF AFTR SUNSET AS THE BL BECOMES
DEEPER AND BETTER ESTABLISHED. WINDS SHOULD EVEN BECOME RELATIVELY
LGT LATER TNGT OVR BROAD VLY AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO FOR SIG
LOWER OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WITH TO LITTLE INVSN POTENTIAL ATTM. IN
ADDITION TO LGT WIND...SC CLDNSS WILL SPREAD WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
N HLF OF THE FA OVRNGT...RESULTING IN CURRENT CLR SKIES TO BECOME
PTLY TO MSLY CLDY AND LMTG THE SFC BASE INVSN POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...THE SRN HLF OF THE FA WILL REMAIN CLR TO PTLY CLDY.
OVRNGT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NGT...BUT STILL WELL ABV AVG
FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

PTLY TO MOSTLY CLDY CONDITIONS WILL CONT SAT...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF LGT OVRRNG SNFL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES ADVCG ENE
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS JUST GETTING TO NRN SOMERSET COUNTY BY
ERLY SAT EVEN. HI TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN
FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTERNOON DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
THE LOW QUICKLY HEADS EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM HOULTON NORTHWARD. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST.
MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING MONDAY MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE START OF THE PERIOD FIND THE EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. AN AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN CANADA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAG A TROUGH INTO NW MAINE WED MRNG. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY WED AFTERNOON...BY EARLY THURS MRNG A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW THIS AREA MOVING EAST
EARLY FRI MRNG...THE ECMWF FRI AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ANTICIPATED TNGT THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
IN ANY SCT SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS CONT OVR OUTER MZS050-051 THRU TNGT...
BUT WINDS AND WVS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVR INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052...WHERE WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS AND WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVR THE OUTER MZS ON SAT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 262258
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
555 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR WEST CENTRAL REGION, SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH WIND GUSTS CONTG TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NW
AND FAR NE PTN OF THE FA THIS MID AFTN...WE DROPPED THE REMAINING
PTN OF THE WIND ADV. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE TIL 5 PM EST OVR OPEN...HIGHER TRRN LCTNS SUCH
AS KFVE AIRPORT... BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HIGHER WINDS ALF AFTR SUNSET AS THE BL BECOMES
DEEPER AND BETTER ESTABLISHED. WINDS SHOULD EVEN BECOME RELATIVELY
LGT LATER TNGT OVR BROAD VLY AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO FOR SIG
LOWER OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WITH TO LITTLE INVSN POTENTIAL ATTM. IN
ADDITION TO LGT WIND...SC CLDNSS WILL SPREAD WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
N HLF OF THE FA OVRNGT...RESULTING IN CURRENT CLR SKIES TO BECOME
PTLY TO MSLY CLDY AND LMTG THE SFC BASE INVSN POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...THE SRN HLF OF THE FA WILL REMAIN CLR TO PTLY CLDY.
OVRNGT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NGT...BUT STILL WELL ABV AVG
FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

PTLY TO MOSTLY CLDY CONDITIONS WILL CONT SAT...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF LGT OVRRNG SNFL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES ADVCG ENE
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS JUST GETTING TO NRN SOMERSET COUNTY BY
ERLY SAT EVEN. HI TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN
FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTERNOON DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
THE LOW QUICKLY HEADS EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM HOULTON NORTHWARD. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST.
MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING MONDAY MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE START OF THE PERIOD FIND THE EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. AN AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN CANADA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAG A TROUGH INTO NW MAINE WED MRNG. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY WED AFTERNOON...BY EARLY THURS MRNG A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW THIS AREA MOVING EAST
EARLY FRI MRNG...THE ECMWF FRI AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ANTICIPATED TNGT THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
IN ANY SCT SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS CONT OVR OUTER MZS050-051 THRU TNGT...
BUT WINDS AND WVS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVR INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052...WHERE WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS AND WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVR THE OUTER MZS ON SAT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 262035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH WIND GUSTS CONTG TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NW AND FAR NE PTN OF THE
FA THIS MID AFTN...WE DROPPED THE REMAINING PTN OF THE WIND ADV.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE
TIL 5 PM EST OVR OPEN...HIGHER TRRN LCTNS SUCH AS KFVE AIRPORT...
BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HIGHER
WINDS ALF AFTR SUNSET AS THE BL BECOMES DEEPER AND BETTER
ESTABLISHED. WINDS SHOULD EVEN BECOME RELATIVELY LGT LATER TNGT
OVR BROAD VLY AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO FOR SIG LOWER OVRNGT
LOW TEMPS...WITH TO LITTLE INVSN POTENTIAL ATTM. IN ADDITION TO
LGT WIND...SC CLDNSS WILL SPREAD WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE N HLF OF
THE FA OVRNGT...RESULTING IN CURRENT CLR SKIES TO BECOME PTLY TO
MSLY CLDY AND LMTG THE SFC BASE INVSN POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THE
SRN HLF OF THE FA WILL REMAIN CLR TO PTLY CLDY. OVRNGT TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER THAN LAST NGT...BUT STILL WELL ABV AVG FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON.

PTLY TO MOSTLY CLDY CONDITIONS WILL CONT SAT...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF LGT OVRRNG SNFL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES ADVCG ENE
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS JUST GETTING TO NRN SOMERSET COUNTY BY
ERLY SAT EVEN. HI TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN
FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTERNOON DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
THE LOW QUICKLY HEADS EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM HOULTON NORTHWARD. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST.
MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING MONDAY MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE START OF THE PERIOD FIND THE EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. AN AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN CANADA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAG A TROUGH INTO NW MAINE WED MRNG. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY WED AFTERNOON...BY EARLY THURS MRNG A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW THIS AREA MOVING EAST
EARLY FRI MRNG...THE ECMWF FRI AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ANTICIPATED TNGT THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
IN ANY SCT SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS CONT OVR OUTER MZS050-051 THRU TNGT...
BUT WINDS AND WVS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVR INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052...WHERE WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS AND WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVR THE OUTER MZS ON SAT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 262035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH WIND GUSTS CONTG TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NW AND FAR NE PTN OF THE
FA THIS MID AFTN...WE DROPPED THE REMAINING PTN OF THE WIND ADV.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE
TIL 5 PM EST OVR OPEN...HIGHER TRRN LCTNS SUCH AS KFVE AIRPORT...
BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HIGHER
WINDS ALF AFTR SUNSET AS THE BL BECOMES DEEPER AND BETTER
ESTABLISHED. WINDS SHOULD EVEN BECOME RELATIVELY LGT LATER TNGT
OVR BROAD VLY AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO FOR SIG LOWER OVRNGT
LOW TEMPS...WITH TO LITTLE INVSN POTENTIAL ATTM. IN ADDITION TO
LGT WIND...SC CLDNSS WILL SPREAD WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE N HLF OF
THE FA OVRNGT...RESULTING IN CURRENT CLR SKIES TO BECOME PTLY TO
MSLY CLDY AND LMTG THE SFC BASE INVSN POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THE
SRN HLF OF THE FA WILL REMAIN CLR TO PTLY CLDY. OVRNGT TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER THAN LAST NGT...BUT STILL WELL ABV AVG FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON.

PTLY TO MOSTLY CLDY CONDITIONS WILL CONT SAT...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF LGT OVRRNG SNFL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES ADVCG ENE
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS JUST GETTING TO NRN SOMERSET COUNTY BY
ERLY SAT EVEN. HI TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN
FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTERNOON DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
THE LOW QUICKLY HEADS EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM HOULTON NORTHWARD. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST.
MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING MONDAY MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE START OF THE PERIOD FIND THE EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. AN AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN CANADA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAG A TROUGH INTO NW MAINE WED MRNG. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY WED AFTERNOON...BY EARLY THURS MRNG A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW THIS AREA MOVING EAST
EARLY FRI MRNG...THE ECMWF FRI AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ANTICIPATED TNGT THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
IN ANY SCT SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS CONT OVR OUTER MZS050-051 THRU TNGT...
BUT WINDS AND WVS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVR INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052...WHERE WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS AND WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVR THE OUTER MZS ON SAT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 262035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH WIND GUSTS CONTG TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NW AND FAR NE PTN OF THE
FA THIS MID AFTN...WE DROPPED THE REMAINING PTN OF THE WIND ADV.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE
TIL 5 PM EST OVR OPEN...HIGHER TRRN LCTNS SUCH AS KFVE AIRPORT...
BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HIGHER
WINDS ALF AFTR SUNSET AS THE BL BECOMES DEEPER AND BETTER
ESTABLISHED. WINDS SHOULD EVEN BECOME RELATIVELY LGT LATER TNGT
OVR BROAD VLY AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO FOR SIG LOWER OVRNGT
LOW TEMPS...WITH TO LITTLE INVSN POTENTIAL ATTM. IN ADDITION TO
LGT WIND...SC CLDNSS WILL SPREAD WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE N HLF OF
THE FA OVRNGT...RESULTING IN CURRENT CLR SKIES TO BECOME PTLY TO
MSLY CLDY AND LMTG THE SFC BASE INVSN POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THE
SRN HLF OF THE FA WILL REMAIN CLR TO PTLY CLDY. OVRNGT TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER THAN LAST NGT...BUT STILL WELL ABV AVG FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON.

PTLY TO MOSTLY CLDY CONDITIONS WILL CONT SAT...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF LGT OVRRNG SNFL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES ADVCG ENE
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS JUST GETTING TO NRN SOMERSET COUNTY BY
ERLY SAT EVEN. HI TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN
FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTERNOON DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
THE LOW QUICKLY HEADS EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM HOULTON NORTHWARD. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST.
MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING MONDAY MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE START OF THE PERIOD FIND THE EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. AN AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN CANADA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAG A TROUGH INTO NW MAINE WED MRNG. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY WED AFTERNOON...BY EARLY THURS MRNG A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW THIS AREA MOVING EAST
EARLY FRI MRNG...THE ECMWF FRI AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ANTICIPATED TNGT THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
IN ANY SCT SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS CONT OVR OUTER MZS050-051 THRU TNGT...
BUT WINDS AND WVS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVR INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052...WHERE WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS AND WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVR THE OUTER MZS ON SAT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 262035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH WIND GUSTS CONTG TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NW AND FAR NE PTN OF THE
FA THIS MID AFTN...WE DROPPED THE REMAINING PTN OF THE WIND ADV.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE
TIL 5 PM EST OVR OPEN...HIGHER TRRN LCTNS SUCH AS KFVE AIRPORT...
BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HIGHER
WINDS ALF AFTR SUNSET AS THE BL BECOMES DEEPER AND BETTER
ESTABLISHED. WINDS SHOULD EVEN BECOME RELATIVELY LGT LATER TNGT
OVR BROAD VLY AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO FOR SIG LOWER OVRNGT
LOW TEMPS...WITH TO LITTLE INVSN POTENTIAL ATTM. IN ADDITION TO
LGT WIND...SC CLDNSS WILL SPREAD WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE N HLF OF
THE FA OVRNGT...RESULTING IN CURRENT CLR SKIES TO BECOME PTLY TO
MSLY CLDY AND LMTG THE SFC BASE INVSN POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THE
SRN HLF OF THE FA WILL REMAIN CLR TO PTLY CLDY. OVRNGT TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER THAN LAST NGT...BUT STILL WELL ABV AVG FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON.

PTLY TO MOSTLY CLDY CONDITIONS WILL CONT SAT...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF LGT OVRRNG SNFL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES ADVCG ENE
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS JUST GETTING TO NRN SOMERSET COUNTY BY
ERLY SAT EVEN. HI TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN
FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTERNOON DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
THE LOW QUICKLY HEADS EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM HOULTON NORTHWARD. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST.
MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING MONDAY MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE START OF THE PERIOD FIND THE EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. AN AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN CANADA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAG A TROUGH INTO NW MAINE WED MRNG. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY WED AFTERNOON...BY EARLY THURS MRNG A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW THIS AREA MOVING EAST
EARLY FRI MRNG...THE ECMWF FRI AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ANTICIPATED TNGT THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
IN ANY SCT SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS CONT OVR OUTER MZS050-051 THRU TNGT...
BUT WINDS AND WVS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVR INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052...WHERE WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS AND WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVR THE OUTER MZS ON SAT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 262018
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND
WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WE WILL SEE WINDS DROPPING
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS MADE A DEFINITIVE
LINE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST CLEAR SKIES IN
THE DOWNSLOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH AREAS
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE THE GREATEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH T850 CLIMBING TO +5C BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. SINCE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL
STILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AND
EVEN A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN THESE AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS STARVING FOR MOISTURE
HOWEVER...AND NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN JUST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUN COLD FNT CROSSES THE REGION. FLOW IS FAST AND FORCING
LOOKS FAIRLY SHEARED OUT...SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PCPN WITH THE FROPA.

IT WILL USHER IN A STABLE AND MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE HIGHLIGHTS ARE RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
BUILDING THRU AK AND INTO THE ARCTIC. ALSO PERSISTENT TROFFING IS
FORECAST IN THE SWRN CONUS. ALL THE WHILE SERN CONUS RIDGING TRIES
TO HOLD FIRM...WITH LITTLE BLOCKING IN THE NRN ATLANTIC. THE
-EPO /RIDGING THRU AK/ SHOULD PROVIDE CANADA AND THE NRN TIER
STATES WILL PLENTY OF COLDER AIR. CERTAINLY MUCH COLDER THAN THE
CURRENT PERIOD. THEREFORE TEMPS ARE MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
THRU THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
THERE...AND IT EXTENDS INTO PCPN CHANCES AS WELL. THE -PNA
/TROFFING IN THE WRN CONUS/ WILL KEEP S/WV TROFS EJECTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. THE SERN RIDGE AND LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS CANADA WILL
KEEP FLOW PROGRESSIVE. AND FINALLY LACK OF BLOCKING WILL ALLOW ANY
STORM SYSTEMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF CUTTING
TO THE W. THIS COULD FIRSTLY SNEAK SOME WARMTH INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SECONDLY...THIS WILL CREATE A BIT OF HAVOC IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING KEY S/WV TROFS AND TIMING. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE TIMING DIFFERENCE OF A DAY OR TWO BETWEEN MODELS...AS
WELL AS DIFFERING DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. TRIED TO KEEP SOME
POP IN THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FAST MOVING S/WV FEATURES. IN
ADDITION...I DID KNOCK DOWN POP IN THE FAR RANGES OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIGH CHANCE...AS DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY THE ECMWF AND GFS
WILL LIKELY WAFFLE ON SOLUTIONS BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE COMING DAYS.

IN SHORT THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH PLENTY OF PCPN
CHANCES THRU THE NEW YEAR. COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT THAT
DOESN/T MEAN SLAM DUNK SNWFL IN EVERY SYSTEM EITHER. BASICALLY A
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL WINTER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE PERSISTENT NW
FLOW CAUSING UPSLOPING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
MAY BRING A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...FROPA OCCURS SUN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ISOLD MVFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING SHRA OR SHSN...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT WLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MTNS THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING SCA
CONDITIONS DUE TO MOSTLY TO SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FROM THE
LONG WESTERLY FETCH TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT WE WILL
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FNT
SUN...IN WLY FLOW. AFTER THAT HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KISTNER
SHORT TERM...KISTNER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KISTNER/LEGRO
MARINE...KISTNER/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262018
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND
WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WE WILL SEE WINDS DROPPING
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS MADE A DEFINITIVE
LINE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST CLEAR SKIES IN
THE DOWNSLOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH AREAS
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE THE GREATEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH T850 CLIMBING TO +5C BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. SINCE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL
STILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AND
EVEN A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN THESE AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS STARVING FOR MOISTURE
HOWEVER...AND NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN JUST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUN COLD FNT CROSSES THE REGION. FLOW IS FAST AND FORCING
LOOKS FAIRLY SHEARED OUT...SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PCPN WITH THE FROPA.

IT WILL USHER IN A STABLE AND MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE HIGHLIGHTS ARE RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
BUILDING THRU AK AND INTO THE ARCTIC. ALSO PERSISTENT TROFFING IS
FORECAST IN THE SWRN CONUS. ALL THE WHILE SERN CONUS RIDGING TRIES
TO HOLD FIRM...WITH LITTLE BLOCKING IN THE NRN ATLANTIC. THE
-EPO /RIDGING THRU AK/ SHOULD PROVIDE CANADA AND THE NRN TIER
STATES WILL PLENTY OF COLDER AIR. CERTAINLY MUCH COLDER THAN THE
CURRENT PERIOD. THEREFORE TEMPS ARE MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
THRU THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
THERE...AND IT EXTENDS INTO PCPN CHANCES AS WELL. THE -PNA
/TROFFING IN THE WRN CONUS/ WILL KEEP S/WV TROFS EJECTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. THE SERN RIDGE AND LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS CANADA WILL
KEEP FLOW PROGRESSIVE. AND FINALLY LACK OF BLOCKING WILL ALLOW ANY
STORM SYSTEMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF CUTTING
TO THE W. THIS COULD FIRSTLY SNEAK SOME WARMTH INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SECONDLY...THIS WILL CREATE A BIT OF HAVOC IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING KEY S/WV TROFS AND TIMING. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE TIMING DIFFERENCE OF A DAY OR TWO BETWEEN MODELS...AS
WELL AS DIFFERING DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. TRIED TO KEEP SOME
POP IN THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FAST MOVING S/WV FEATURES. IN
ADDITION...I DID KNOCK DOWN POP IN THE FAR RANGES OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIGH CHANCE...AS DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY THE ECMWF AND GFS
WILL LIKELY WAFFLE ON SOLUTIONS BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE COMING DAYS.

IN SHORT THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH PLENTY OF PCPN
CHANCES THRU THE NEW YEAR. COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT THAT
DOESN/T MEAN SLAM DUNK SNWFL IN EVERY SYSTEM EITHER. BASICALLY A
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL WINTER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE PERSISTENT NW
FLOW CAUSING UPSLOPING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
MAY BRING A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...FROPA OCCURS SUN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ISOLD MVFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING SHRA OR SHSN...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT WLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MTNS THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING SCA
CONDITIONS DUE TO MOSTLY TO SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FROM THE
LONG WESTERLY FETCH TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT WE WILL
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FNT
SUN...IN WLY FLOW. AFTER THAT HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KISTNER
SHORT TERM...KISTNER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KISTNER/LEGRO
MARINE...KISTNER/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262018
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND
WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WE WILL SEE WINDS DROPPING
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS MADE A DEFINITIVE
LINE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST CLEAR SKIES IN
THE DOWNSLOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH AREAS
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE THE GREATEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH T850 CLIMBING TO +5C BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. SINCE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL
STILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AND
EVEN A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN THESE AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS STARVING FOR MOISTURE
HOWEVER...AND NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN JUST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUN COLD FNT CROSSES THE REGION. FLOW IS FAST AND FORCING
LOOKS FAIRLY SHEARED OUT...SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PCPN WITH THE FROPA.

IT WILL USHER IN A STABLE AND MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE HIGHLIGHTS ARE RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
BUILDING THRU AK AND INTO THE ARCTIC. ALSO PERSISTENT TROFFING IS
FORECAST IN THE SWRN CONUS. ALL THE WHILE SERN CONUS RIDGING TRIES
TO HOLD FIRM...WITH LITTLE BLOCKING IN THE NRN ATLANTIC. THE
-EPO /RIDGING THRU AK/ SHOULD PROVIDE CANADA AND THE NRN TIER
STATES WILL PLENTY OF COLDER AIR. CERTAINLY MUCH COLDER THAN THE
CURRENT PERIOD. THEREFORE TEMPS ARE MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
THRU THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
THERE...AND IT EXTENDS INTO PCPN CHANCES AS WELL. THE -PNA
/TROFFING IN THE WRN CONUS/ WILL KEEP S/WV TROFS EJECTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. THE SERN RIDGE AND LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS CANADA WILL
KEEP FLOW PROGRESSIVE. AND FINALLY LACK OF BLOCKING WILL ALLOW ANY
STORM SYSTEMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF CUTTING
TO THE W. THIS COULD FIRSTLY SNEAK SOME WARMTH INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SECONDLY...THIS WILL CREATE A BIT OF HAVOC IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING KEY S/WV TROFS AND TIMING. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE TIMING DIFFERENCE OF A DAY OR TWO BETWEEN MODELS...AS
WELL AS DIFFERING DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. TRIED TO KEEP SOME
POP IN THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FAST MOVING S/WV FEATURES. IN
ADDITION...I DID KNOCK DOWN POP IN THE FAR RANGES OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIGH CHANCE...AS DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY THE ECMWF AND GFS
WILL LIKELY WAFFLE ON SOLUTIONS BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE COMING DAYS.

IN SHORT THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH PLENTY OF PCPN
CHANCES THRU THE NEW YEAR. COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT THAT
DOESN/T MEAN SLAM DUNK SNWFL IN EVERY SYSTEM EITHER. BASICALLY A
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL WINTER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE PERSISTENT NW
FLOW CAUSING UPSLOPING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
MAY BRING A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...FROPA OCCURS SUN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ISOLD MVFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING SHRA OR SHSN...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT WLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MTNS THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING SCA
CONDITIONS DUE TO MOSTLY TO SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FROM THE
LONG WESTERLY FETCH TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT WE WILL
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FNT
SUN...IN WLY FLOW. AFTER THAT HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KISTNER
SHORT TERM...KISTNER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KISTNER/LEGRO
MARINE...KISTNER/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262018
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND
WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WE WILL SEE WINDS DROPPING
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS MADE A DEFINITIVE
LINE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST CLEAR SKIES IN
THE DOWNSLOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH AREAS
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE THE GREATEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH T850 CLIMBING TO +5C BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. SINCE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL
STILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AND
EVEN A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN THESE AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS STARVING FOR MOISTURE
HOWEVER...AND NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN JUST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUN COLD FNT CROSSES THE REGION. FLOW IS FAST AND FORCING
LOOKS FAIRLY SHEARED OUT...SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PCPN WITH THE FROPA.

IT WILL USHER IN A STABLE AND MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE HIGHLIGHTS ARE RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
BUILDING THRU AK AND INTO THE ARCTIC. ALSO PERSISTENT TROFFING IS
FORECAST IN THE SWRN CONUS. ALL THE WHILE SERN CONUS RIDGING TRIES
TO HOLD FIRM...WITH LITTLE BLOCKING IN THE NRN ATLANTIC. THE
-EPO /RIDGING THRU AK/ SHOULD PROVIDE CANADA AND THE NRN TIER
STATES WILL PLENTY OF COLDER AIR. CERTAINLY MUCH COLDER THAN THE
CURRENT PERIOD. THEREFORE TEMPS ARE MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
THRU THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
THERE...AND IT EXTENDS INTO PCPN CHANCES AS WELL. THE -PNA
/TROFFING IN THE WRN CONUS/ WILL KEEP S/WV TROFS EJECTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. THE SERN RIDGE AND LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS CANADA WILL
KEEP FLOW PROGRESSIVE. AND FINALLY LACK OF BLOCKING WILL ALLOW ANY
STORM SYSTEMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF CUTTING
TO THE W. THIS COULD FIRSTLY SNEAK SOME WARMTH INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SECONDLY...THIS WILL CREATE A BIT OF HAVOC IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING KEY S/WV TROFS AND TIMING. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE TIMING DIFFERENCE OF A DAY OR TWO BETWEEN MODELS...AS
WELL AS DIFFERING DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. TRIED TO KEEP SOME
POP IN THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FAST MOVING S/WV FEATURES. IN
ADDITION...I DID KNOCK DOWN POP IN THE FAR RANGES OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIGH CHANCE...AS DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY THE ECMWF AND GFS
WILL LIKELY WAFFLE ON SOLUTIONS BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE COMING DAYS.

IN SHORT THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH PLENTY OF PCPN
CHANCES THRU THE NEW YEAR. COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT THAT
DOESN/T MEAN SLAM DUNK SNWFL IN EVERY SYSTEM EITHER. BASICALLY A
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL WINTER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE PERSISTENT NW
FLOW CAUSING UPSLOPING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
MAY BRING A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...FROPA OCCURS SUN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ISOLD MVFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING SHRA OR SHSN...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT WLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MTNS THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS EASED THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING SCA
CONDITIONS DUE TO MOSTLY TO SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FROM THE
LONG WESTERLY FETCH TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT WE WILL
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.

LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FNT
SUN...IN WLY FLOW. AFTER THAT HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KISTNER
SHORT TERM...KISTNER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KISTNER/LEGRO
MARINE...KISTNER/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261817
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE: WIND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 45 MPH OVR THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND NRN PENOBSCOT/SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY PTNS OF
THE WIND ADV THRU MIDDAY...SO WE DROPPED THIS AREA FROM THE WIND
ADV. OTHERWISE...OVR THE NW AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA...WIND GUSTS
COULD APCH OR REACH 45 MPH...SPCLY OVR OPEN...HIGHER TRRN AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.

OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM LATEST SFC OBS AT NOON EST FROM
THE PREV FCST OF HRLY TEMPS AT NOON. THIS RESULTED IN RAISING HI
TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY A COUPLE OF DEG F...WITH MOST
LCTNS ALREADY EXCEEDING THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT
MILLINOCKET NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A
COUPLE EVEN TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME
POWER OUTAGES FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN
NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1250 PM UPDATE...WE BUMPED UP WV HTS BY A FOOT OR TWO
FOR THE AFTN FROM THE PREV FCST GIVEN LATEST BUOY OBS. WE TREND
BACK CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FCST WV HTS BY SAT.

ORGNL DISC...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261817
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE: WIND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 45 MPH OVR THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND NRN PENOBSCOT/SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY PTNS OF
THE WIND ADV THRU MIDDAY...SO WE DROPPED THIS AREA FROM THE WIND
ADV. OTHERWISE...OVR THE NW AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA...WIND GUSTS
COULD APCH OR REACH 45 MPH...SPCLY OVR OPEN...HIGHER TRRN AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.

OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM LATEST SFC OBS AT NOON EST FROM
THE PREV FCST OF HRLY TEMPS AT NOON. THIS RESULTED IN RAISING HI
TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY A COUPLE OF DEG F...WITH MOST
LCTNS ALREADY EXCEEDING THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT
MILLINOCKET NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A
COUPLE EVEN TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME
POWER OUTAGES FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN
NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1250 PM UPDATE...WE BUMPED UP WV HTS BY A FOOT OR TWO
FOR THE AFTN FROM THE PREV FCST GIVEN LATEST BUOY OBS. WE TREND
BACK CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FCST WV HTS BY SAT.

ORGNL DISC...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1149 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...HAD TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS
DOWNSLOPING AND CLEAR SKIES HAS BOOSTED TEMPS TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DECREASED SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING.

9 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING JUST A BIT WARMER IN A FEW
SPOTS THIS MORNING DUE TO BKN CLOUDS SO UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON
THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. OTHER THAN THAT THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CLEAR SKIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE RANGE WITH THE DOWNSLOPING.

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SC DECK HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST PER LATEST OBS
AND STLT IMAGERY WITH BKN CLOUDS OVER KCON...KIZG AND KWVL. HAVE
UPPED CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO UPPED MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE
FORECAST HIGHS THIS MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1149 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...HAD TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS
DOWNSLOPING AND CLEAR SKIES HAS BOOSTED TEMPS TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DECREASED SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING.

9 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING JUST A BIT WARMER IN A FEW
SPOTS THIS MORNING DUE TO BKN CLOUDS SO UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON
THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. OTHER THAN THAT THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CLEAR SKIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE RANGE WITH THE DOWNSLOPING.

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SC DECK HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST PER LATEST OBS
AND STLT IMAGERY WITH BKN CLOUDS OVER KCON...KIZG AND KWVL. HAVE
UPPED CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO UPPED MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE
FORECAST HIGHS THIS MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261455
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
955 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: WILL KEEP THE WIND ADV UP OVR THE CURRENT ADV AREA
THRU 21Z...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BY AFTN SOMEWHAT NEGATING A
10 KT DROP OFF OF 0.5 TO 1.0 KM AGL WINDS FROM 50KT THIS MORN TO
40 KT THIS AFTN. ONLY NRN PTNS OF ZONES 5 AND 6 ARE AFFECTED BY
THIS POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN SOME POWER OUTAGES THAT OCCURRED LAST
NGT OVR PTNS OF THE N...RATHER BE SAFE THAN SORRY ATTM.

OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM LATEST SFC OBS AT 9 AM FROM THE
PREV FCST OF HRLY TEMPS AT 9 AM. SKY CVR FCST FOR TDY LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT
MILLINOCKET NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A
COUPLE EVEN TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME
POWER OUTAGES FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN
NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261455
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
955 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: WILL KEEP THE WIND ADV UP OVR THE CURRENT ADV AREA
THRU 21Z...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BY AFTN SOMEWHAT NEGATING A
10 KT DROP OFF OF 0.5 TO 1.0 KM AGL WINDS FROM 50KT THIS MORN TO
40 KT THIS AFTN. ONLY NRN PTNS OF ZONES 5 AND 6 ARE AFFECTED BY
THIS POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN SOME POWER OUTAGES THAT OCCURRED LAST
NGT OVR PTNS OF THE N...RATHER BE SAFE THAN SORRY ATTM.

OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM LATEST SFC OBS AT 9 AM FROM THE
PREV FCST OF HRLY TEMPS AT 9 AM. SKY CVR FCST FOR TDY LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT
MILLINOCKET NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A
COUPLE EVEN TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME
POWER OUTAGES FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN
NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261407
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
907 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING JUST A BIT WARMER IN A FEW
SPOTS THIS MORNING DUE TO BKN CLOUDS SO UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON
THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. OTHER THAN THAT THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CLEAR SKIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE RANGE WITH THE DOWNSLOPING.

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SC DECK HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST PER LATEST OBS
AND STLT IMAGERY WITH BKN CLOUDS OVER KCON...KIZG AND KWVL. HAVE
UPPED CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO UPPED MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE
FORECAST HIGHS THIS MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SC DECK HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST PER LATEST OBS
AND STLT IMAGERY WITH BKN CLOUDS OVER KCON...KIZG AND KWVL. HAVE
UPPED CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO UPPED MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE
FORECAST HIGHS THIS MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SC DECK HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST PER LATEST OBS
AND STLT IMAGERY WITH BKN CLOUDS OVER KCON...KIZG AND KWVL. HAVE
UPPED CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO UPPED MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE
FORECAST HIGHS THIS MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SC DECK HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST PER LATEST OBS
AND STLT IMAGERY WITH BKN CLOUDS OVER KCON...KIZG AND KWVL. HAVE
UPPED CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO UPPED MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE
FORECAST HIGHS THIS MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SC DECK HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST PER LATEST OBS
AND STLT IMAGERY WITH BKN CLOUDS OVER KCON...KIZG AND KWVL. HAVE
UPPED CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO UPPED MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE
FORECAST HIGHS THIS MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
547 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY OUT TO 10 AM INSTEAD OF ALLOWING IT TO
END AT 6 AM. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE COME DOWN JUST A BIT,
THE GUST FACTOR IS VERY HIGH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
OCCURRING. HAD BEEN THINKING OF ALLOWING IT TO EXPIRE UNTIL A
LOUD SUDDEN GUST SLAMMED INTO OUR WINDOW HERE AT NWS CARIBOU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET
NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A COUPLE EVEN
TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES
FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR SET A NEW RECORD ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A HIGH OF 54
DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51 FROM 2003. ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, CARIBOU AND HOULTON TIED RECORD HIGHS WITH 48 AND 53 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TIEING THEIR RECORDS FROM 2003.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
547 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY OUT TO 10 AM INSTEAD OF ALLOWING IT TO
END AT 6 AM. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE COME DOWN JUST A BIT,
THE GUST FACTOR IS VERY HIGH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
OCCURRING. HAD BEEN THINKING OF ALLOWING IT TO EXPIRE UNTIL A
LOUD SUDDEN GUST SLAMMED INTO OUR WINDOW HERE AT NWS CARIBOU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET
NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A COUPLE EVEN
TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES
FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR SET A NEW RECORD ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A HIGH OF 54
DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51 FROM 2003. ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, CARIBOU AND HOULTON TIED RECORD HIGHS WITH 48 AND 53 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TIEING THEIR RECORDS FROM 2003.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
547 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY OUT TO 10 AM INSTEAD OF ALLOWING IT TO
END AT 6 AM. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE COME DOWN JUST A BIT,
THE GUST FACTOR IS VERY HIGH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
OCCURRING. HAD BEEN THINKING OF ALLOWING IT TO EXPIRE UNTIL A
LOUD SUDDEN GUST SLAMMED INTO OUR WINDOW HERE AT NWS CARIBOU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET
NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A COUPLE EVEN
TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES
FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR SET A NEW RECORD ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A HIGH OF 54
DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51 FROM 2003. ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, CARIBOU AND HOULTON TIED RECORD HIGHS WITH 48 AND 53 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TIEING THEIR RECORDS FROM 2003.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
547 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY OUT TO 10 AM INSTEAD OF ALLOWING IT TO
END AT 6 AM. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE COME DOWN JUST A BIT,
THE GUST FACTOR IS VERY HIGH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
OCCURRING. HAD BEEN THINKING OF ALLOWING IT TO EXPIRE UNTIL A
LOUD SUDDEN GUST SLAMMED INTO OUR WINDOW HERE AT NWS CARIBOU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET
NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A COUPLE EVEN
TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES
FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR SET A NEW RECORD ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A HIGH OF 54
DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51 FROM 2003. ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, CARIBOU AND HOULTON TIED RECORD HIGHS WITH 48 AND 53 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TIEING THEIR RECORDS FROM 2003.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261004
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
504 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET
NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A COUPLE EVEN
TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES
FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR SET A NEW RECORD ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A HIGH OF 54
DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51 FROM 2003. ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, CARIBOU AND HOULTON TIED RECORD HIGHS WITH 48 AND 53 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TIEING THEIR RECORDS FROM 2003.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261004
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
504 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET
NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A COUPLE EVEN
TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES
FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR SET A NEW RECORD ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A HIGH OF 54
DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51 FROM 2003. ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, CARIBOU AND HOULTON TIED RECORD HIGHS WITH 48 AND 53 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TIEING THEIR RECORDS FROM 2003.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261004
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
504 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET
NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A COUPLE EVEN
TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES
FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR SET A NEW RECORD ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A HIGH OF 54
DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51 FROM 2003. ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, CARIBOU AND HOULTON TIED RECORD HIGHS WITH 48 AND 53 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TIEING THEIR RECORDS FROM 2003.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261004
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
504 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET
NORTH. SEVERAL PLACES HAVE HAD GUSTS TOP 45 MPH WITH A COUPLE EVEN
TOPPING 50 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES
FROM MILLINOCKET TO CARIBOU. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
POWERFUL DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STILL WILL BE A WINDY DAY, HOWEVER. BECAUSE OF THE WINDS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE TONIGHT. RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A TOUCH. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. YOU KNOW IT WAS REALLY WARM WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST THANKS
TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE A WESTERLY BREEZE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EARLY TODAY. THE BREEZE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND LEAD TO
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...NEAREST THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF WARMER AIR DRAWN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN JUST
A BIT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR, THOUGH,
MAINLY TOWARD FRENCHVILLE, AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO WEST 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 10 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 2 TO 5 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR SET A NEW RECORD ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A HIGH OF 54
DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51 FROM 2003. ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, CARIBOU AND HOULTON TIED RECORD HIGHS WITH 48 AND 53 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TIEING THEIR RECORDS FROM 2003.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...FOISY



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260756
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A STRONG GUSTY
WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY
WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS
HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260756
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A STRONG GUSTY
WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY
WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS
HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260756
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A STRONG GUSTY
WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY
WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS
HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260756
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DESPITE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YESTERDAY ON A STRONG GUSTY
WESTERLY GRADIENT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR THIS MORNING. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY
WILL BE REPLACED BY READINGS IN THE MID 3OS NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY IN EXPOSED AREAS
HOWEVER.

ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
HIGH TERRAIN.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS H850 TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS TIPPING OUT NEAR 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS FROM AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY
TO CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM WEATHER FINALLY COMES TO AN END NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AS MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH IN CANADA.
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS
ABLE TO TAKE HOLD. COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...HOWEVER
THEY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SCAS THIS MORNING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONG FETCH IN
A WESTERLY GRADIENT...SO SCAS WILL BE CONTINUING EAST OF CAPE
ELIZABETH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KT. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260557
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1257 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO END THE CURRENT GALE WARNING AND ADD A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

1150 PM UPDATE...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY SOUTH TO HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. HOULTON
JUST HAD A GUST TO 40 KNOTS, AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT INDICATES
POWER HAS BEEN OUT AT TIMES IN MILLINOCKET. ALSO, PATTEN IS
PRESENTLY RECORDING WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH. ALSO, EXTENDED WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT, AS DON`T SEE WINDS LETTING
UP UNTIL MAYBE LATE TONIGHT. FINALLY, RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260557
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1257 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO END THE CURRENT GALE WARNING AND ADD A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

1150 PM UPDATE...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY SOUTH TO HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. HOULTON
JUST HAD A GUST TO 40 KNOTS, AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT INDICATES
POWER HAS BEEN OUT AT TIMES IN MILLINOCKET. ALSO, PATTEN IS
PRESENTLY RECORDING WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH. ALSO, EXTENDED WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT, AS DON`T SEE WINDS LETTING
UP UNTIL MAYBE LATE TONIGHT. FINALLY, RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260452
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1150 PM UPDATE...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY SOUTH TO HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. HOULTON
JUST HAD A GUST TO 40 KNOTS, AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT INDICATES
POWER HAS BEEN OUT AT TIMES IN MILLINOCKET. ALSO, PATTEN IS
PRESENTLY RECORDING WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH. ALSO, EXTENDED WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT, AS DON`T SEE WINDS LETTING
UP UNTIL MAYBE LATE TONIGHT. FINALLY, RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260452
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1150 PM UPDATE...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY SOUTH TO HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. HOULTON
JUST HAD A GUST TO 40 KNOTS, AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT INDICATES
POWER HAS BEEN OUT AT TIMES IN MILLINOCKET. ALSO, PATTEN IS
PRESENTLY RECORDING WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH. ALSO, EXTENDED WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT, AS DON`T SEE WINDS LETTING
UP UNTIL MAYBE LATE TONIGHT. FINALLY, RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260452
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1150 PM UPDATE...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY SOUTH TO HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. HOULTON
JUST HAD A GUST TO 40 KNOTS, AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT INDICATES
POWER HAS BEEN OUT AT TIMES IN MILLINOCKET. ALSO, PATTEN IS
PRESENTLY RECORDING WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH. ALSO, EXTENDED WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT, AS DON`T SEE WINDS LETTING
UP UNTIL MAYBE LATE TONIGHT. FINALLY, RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260452
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1150 PM UPDATE...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY SOUTH TO HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. HOULTON
JUST HAD A GUST TO 40 KNOTS, AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT INDICATES
POWER HAS BEEN OUT AT TIMES IN MILLINOCKET. ALSO, PATTEN IS
PRESENTLY RECORDING WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH. ALSO, EXTENDED WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT, AS DON`T SEE WINDS LETTING
UP UNTIL MAYBE LATE TONIGHT. FINALLY, RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260236
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
936 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS ARE
COMING DOWN SLOWLY AND THAT SHOULD BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT. WE DID
BOOST TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND WHAT WIND WE HAVE SHOULD KEEP
THE PBL STIRRED UP IN MANY AREAS. CAA REALLY NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE.

610 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. RELATIVELY MILD EVENING CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF OF OUR RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS.

PREVIOUSLY...

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPS EDGING ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SEES A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST AS
RIDGING ALOFT IS REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT.

A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY AND HELP CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS POSSIBLY GETTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WARMER
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH TEENS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. A CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN STREAM. IN GENERAL
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
THIS WEEK... AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS NEVER REALLY
PHASE WELL... THEREFORE KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM
DEVELOPING NEAR US. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR AS
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE FOG MONDAY MORNING FOR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KMHT AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN IS A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS 25-30 KTS FOR
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260236
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
936 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS ARE
COMING DOWN SLOWLY AND THAT SHOULD BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT. WE DID
BOOST TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND WHAT WIND WE HAVE SHOULD KEEP
THE PBL STIRRED UP IN MANY AREAS. CAA REALLY NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE.

610 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. RELATIVELY MILD EVENING CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF OF OUR RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS.

PREVIOUSLY...

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPS EDGING ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SEES A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST AS
RIDGING ALOFT IS REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT.

A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY AND HELP CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS POSSIBLY GETTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WARMER
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH TEENS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. A CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN STREAM. IN GENERAL
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
THIS WEEK... AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS NEVER REALLY
PHASE WELL... THEREFORE KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM
DEVELOPING NEAR US. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR AS
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE FOG MONDAY MORNING FOR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KMHT AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN IS A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS 25-30 KTS FOR
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260236
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
936 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS ARE
COMING DOWN SLOWLY AND THAT SHOULD BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT. WE DID
BOOST TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND WHAT WIND WE HAVE SHOULD KEEP
THE PBL STIRRED UP IN MANY AREAS. CAA REALLY NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE.

610 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. RELATIVELY MILD EVENING CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF OF OUR RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS.

PREVIOUSLY...

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPS EDGING ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SEES A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST AS
RIDGING ALOFT IS REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT.

A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY AND HELP CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS POSSIBLY GETTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WARMER
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH TEENS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. A CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN STREAM. IN GENERAL
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
THIS WEEK... AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS NEVER REALLY
PHASE WELL... THEREFORE KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM
DEVELOPING NEAR US. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR AS
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE FOG MONDAY MORNING FOR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KMHT AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN IS A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS 25-30 KTS FOR
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
853 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 2100 EST: WEATHER OBSERVING STATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WERE REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS GUSTS OVER COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUED TO BE AROUND MINIMAL GALE WARNING CRITERIA. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST OR HEADLINES.

UPDATE 1830 EST: SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT OF UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN EFFECT.

OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
853 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 2100 EST: WEATHER OBSERVING STATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WERE REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS GUSTS OVER COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUED TO BE AROUND MINIMAL GALE WARNING CRITERIA. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST OR HEADLINES.

UPDATE 1830 EST: SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT OF UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN EFFECT.

OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
853 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 2100 EST: WEATHER OBSERVING STATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WERE REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS GUSTS OVER COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUED TO BE AROUND MINIMAL GALE WARNING CRITERIA. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST OR HEADLINES.

UPDATE 1830 EST: SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT OF UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN EFFECT.

OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
853 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 2100 EST: WEATHER OBSERVING STATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WERE REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS GUSTS OVER COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUED TO BE AROUND MINIMAL GALE WARNING CRITERIA. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST OR HEADLINES.

UPDATE 1830 EST: SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT OF UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN EFFECT.

OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 252325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 1830 EST: SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT OF UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN EFFECT.

OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 1830 EST: SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT OF UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN EFFECT.

OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 1830 EST: SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT OF UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN EFFECT.

OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 1830 EST: SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT OF UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO MIX DOWN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN EFFECT.

OFFSHORE WINDS GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS AT MOST BUOYS. WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 AM
FRIDAY...SINCE SOME GUSTS WERE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 252311
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
610 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. RELATIVELY MILD EVENING CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF OF OUR RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS.

PREVIOUSLY...

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPS EDGING ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SEES A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST AS
RIDGING ALOFT IS REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT.

A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY AND HELP CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS POSSIBLY GETTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WARMER
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH TEENS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. A CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN STREAM. IN GENERAL
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
THIS WEEK... AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS NEVER REALLY
PHASE WELL... THEREFORE KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM
DEVELOPING NEAR US. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR AS
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE FOG MONDAY MORNING FOR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KMHT AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN IS A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS 25-30 KTS FOR
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252100
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
400 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252100
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
400 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE WILL CONT WITH THE WIND ADV FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FEW SITES
REPORTING WIND GUSTS MUCH PAST 35 MPH ATTM. WITH STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT AT THE 925 MB LVL XPCTD TO CONT WELL INTO THE
OVRNGT PD...THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AT LEAST
TO THE END OF THE CURRENT ADV WINDOW. WHAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS IS
THAT A BL IN THE LOWEST 250M INITIALLY SETS UP ARND SUNSET...THEN
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST ABV THIS SHORTLY AFT SUNSET...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER LATER IN THE EVE...
ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SFC AFT A BREAK IN
GUSTS ARND SUNSET. IF WIND GUSTS DO REACH 40 MPH+ BY 9 PM OR SO...
IT LIKELY WILL NOT HAPPEN...AND THE ADV COULD BE CANX ERLY. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL CONT BRISK INTO FRI WITH A MDTLY STRONG PRES GRAD
AND WINDS ALF PERSISTING OVR THE FA.

OTHERWISE...PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO FRI WITH ISOLATED RN CHGNG TO SN SHWRS
TNGT... AND MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES OVR THE SE HLF. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD OVRNGT AND FRI...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS LAST NGT
AND TDY...SPCLY SO FOR THE SE HLF OF THE FA WHICH HAD RISING TEMPS
LAST NGT AND REACHED NEARLY 60 DEG F THIS PAST LATE MORN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO
OUR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS START TO INCREASE DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO FRI...XCPT NRN MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD RUN MVFR SC CLGS ATTMS...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU 06Z ATTM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE PRES GRAD WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
TRACKING WELL N OF ME. AFTWRDS...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT
PRETTY CLOSE WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251911
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
211 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPS EDGING ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SEES A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST AS
RIDGING ALOFT IS REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT.

A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY AND HELP CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS POSSIBLY GETTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WARMER
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH TEENS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. A CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN STREAM. IN GENERAL
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
THIS WEEK... AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS NEVER REALLY
PHASE WELL... THEREFORE KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM
DEVELOPING NEAR US. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR AS
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE FOG MONDAY MORNING FOR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KMHT AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN IS A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS 25-30 KTS FOR
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251911
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
211 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPS EDGING ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTH WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SEES A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST AS
RIDGING ALOFT IS REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT.

A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY AND HELP CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS POSSIBLY GETTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WARMER
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH TEENS IN THE NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. A CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN STREAM. IN GENERAL
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
THIS WEEK... AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS NEVER REALLY
PHASE WELL... THEREFORE KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM
DEVELOPING NEAR US. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PASSES BY IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR AS
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE FOG MONDAY MORNING FOR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KMHT AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN IS A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS 25-30 KTS FOR
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251753
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ICE
MOVEMENT AND MINOR JAMMING OVR AREA STREAMS AND RVRS...WE FEEL THE
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FA AS A WHOLE TO LOWER THE
FLOOD WATCH AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE RN ATTM. OTHERWISE...
WINDS WILL CONT TO SLOWLY RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SPCLY
ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN. LATEST OBS SHOW
TEMPS FALLING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO ERLY THIS EVE HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

ORGNL DISC: VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE
50S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO
54, SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40
AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE
RAIN. EXPECT RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THEN END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME
OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY
NEAR THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE
THIS CAN BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE... AS HIGH SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED...THOUGH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251753
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1253 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ICE
MOVEMENT AND MINOR JAMMING OVR AREA STREAMS AND RVRS...WE FEEL THE
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FA AS A WHOLE TO LOWER THE
FLOOD WATCH AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE RN ATTM. OTHERWISE...
WINDS WILL CONT TO SLOWLY RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SPCLY
ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN. LATEST OBS SHOW
TEMPS FALLING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO ERLY THIS EVE HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

ORGNL DISC: VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE
50S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO
54, SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40
AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE
RAIN. EXPECT RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THEN END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME
OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY
NEAR THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE
THIS CAN BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE... AS HIGH SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED...THOUGH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251539
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1039 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

16Z UPDATE...
UPDATING ZONES TO DROP FLOOD WATCH. PRECIP CURRENTLY EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. SOME MINOR RISES NOTED ON AREA RIVER
BUT NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED. OTHER THAN A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251539
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1039 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

16Z UPDATE...
UPDATING ZONES TO DROP FLOOD WATCH. PRECIP CURRENTLY EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. SOME MINOR RISES NOTED ON AREA RIVER
BUT NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED. OTHER THAN A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251539
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1039 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

16Z UPDATE...
UPDATING ZONES TO DROP FLOOD WATCH. PRECIP CURRENTLY EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. SOME MINOR RISES NOTED ON AREA RIVER
BUT NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED. OTHER THAN A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251521
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1021 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE: WINDS HAVE NOT RISEN TO WIND ADV LVLS ALG THE COAST
AND THE LLVL JET AXIS IS NOW E OF THE REGION...SO WE DROPPED THE
WIND ADV THERE. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW STRONG WINDS ALF TO 55 TO
60 KT AT 925 MB AND STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO NW
ME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEREFORE WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADV OVR
FAR NRN ME TO INCLUDE THE NW. OTHERWISE...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY
TEMPS THRU THE AFTN BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TEMPS AND SLGTLY
MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE
50S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO
54, SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40
AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE
RAIN. EXPECT RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THEN END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME
OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY
NEAR THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE
THIS CAN BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER
THE RAIN ENDS AROUND MIDDAY...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL RESPONSE OF SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, AS BUILDING SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED, THOUGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR ALREADY SET A RECORD HIGH WITH 54F IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003.
AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 47F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251521
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1021 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE: WINDS HAVE NOT RISEN TO WIND ADV LVLS ALG THE COAST
AND THE LLVL JET AXIS IS NOW E OF THE REGION...SO WE DROPPED THE
WIND ADV THERE. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW STRONG WINDS ALF TO 55 TO
60 KT AT 925 MB AND STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO NW
ME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEREFORE WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADV OVR
FAR NRN ME TO INCLUDE THE NW. OTHERWISE...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY
TEMPS THRU THE AFTN BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TEMPS AND SLGTLY
MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE
50S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO
54, SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40
AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE
RAIN. EXPECT RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THEN END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME
OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY
NEAR THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE
THIS CAN BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER
THE RAIN ENDS AROUND MIDDAY...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL RESPONSE OF SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, AS BUILDING SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED, THOUGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR ALREADY SET A RECORD HIGH WITH 54F IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003.
AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 47F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE JUST TO ADJUST TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE ALL
THE PLACE. BANGOR ROSE FROM 39 TO 54 JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN
DROPPED TO 40, AND NOW HAS RISEN BACK UP TO 52! TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY SENSITIVE TO WHERE THE WARM WIND ALOFT IS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. STEADIER RAIN IS REDEVELOPING NOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR A RAINY MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING ABRUPTLY AROUND
MIDDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO 54,
SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40 AS
THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN. EXPECT
RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN
END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY NEAR
THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE THIS CAN
BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER
THE RAIN ENDS AROUND MIDDAY...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL RESPONSE OF SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, AS BUILDING SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED, THOUGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR ALREADY SET A RECORD HIGH WITH 54F IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003.
AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 47F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FOISY
CLIMATE...FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE JUST TO ADJUST TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE ALL
THE PLACE. BANGOR ROSE FROM 39 TO 54 JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN
DROPPED TO 40, AND NOW HAS RISEN BACK UP TO 52! TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY SENSITIVE TO WHERE THE WARM WIND ALOFT IS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. STEADIER RAIN IS REDEVELOPING NOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR A RAINY MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING ABRUPTLY AROUND
MIDDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO 54,
SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40 AS
THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN. EXPECT
RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN
END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY NEAR
THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE THIS CAN
BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER
THE RAIN ENDS AROUND MIDDAY...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL RESPONSE OF SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, AS BUILDING SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED, THOUGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR ALREADY SET A RECORD HIGH WITH 54F IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003.
AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 47F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FOISY
CLIMATE...FOISY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
507 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY MOIST AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO 54,
SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40 AS
THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN. EXPECT
RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN
END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY NEAR
THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE THIS CAN
BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.75 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER
THE RAIN ENDS AROUND MIDDAY...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL RESPONSE OF SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, AS BUILDING SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED, THOUGH.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR ALREADY SET A RECORD HIGH WITH 54F IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003.
AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 47F AT CARIBOU.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FOISY
CLIMATE...FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
507 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY MOIST AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO 54,
SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40 AS
THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN. EXPECT
RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN
END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY NEAR
THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE THIS CAN
BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.75 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER
THE RAIN ENDS AROUND MIDDAY...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL RESPONSE OF SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, AS BUILDING SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED, THOUGH.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR ALREADY SET A RECORD HIGH WITH 54F IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003.
AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 47F AT CARIBOU.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FOISY
CLIMATE...FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
507 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY MOIST AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO 54,
SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40 AS
THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN. EXPECT
RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN
END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY NEAR
THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE THIS CAN
BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.75 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER
THE RAIN ENDS AROUND MIDDAY...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL RESPONSE OF SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, AS BUILDING SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED, THOUGH.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR ALREADY SET A RECORD HIGH WITH 54F IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003.
AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 47F AT CARIBOU.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FOISY
CLIMATE...FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
507 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY MOIST AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO 54,
SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40 AS
THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN. EXPECT
RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN
END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY NEAR
THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE THIS CAN
BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING,
BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN
COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL
THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN
CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.75 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER
THE RAIN ENDS AROUND MIDDAY...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL RESPONSE OF SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, AS BUILDING SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT
VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED, THOUGH.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR ALREADY SET A RECORD HIGH WITH 54F IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003.
AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 47F AT CARIBOU.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FOISY
CLIMATE...FOISY



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
210 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
210 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250508
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND BRING PLEASANT
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1205 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED TO DEPICT BREAK IN RAIN SHIELD
NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE. NH IS MOSTLY RAIN FREE AT THE
MOMENT AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN 4-6 HOURS AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STALL OR
SLOWLY INCREASE ENSURING P TYPE IS RAIN. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RAIN
SHIELDS DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AND BECOME A NUISANCE BEFORE
DAYBREAK... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT OR OCCLUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NH. NOT REALLY SURE HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES
IT...BUT IT MAY JUST REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NH BEFORE
AN OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...30S AND 40S WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM OCCLUSION MOVES
THROUGH AND PERHAPS PUSHES TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE FALLING BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO THE MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE AND
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY. A FEW 50 MPH GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.

CONTINUED CLEARING AND BREEZY THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A LARGE RIDGE IS SET UP
OVER THE REGION. WEATHER WILL BE QUITE NICE AS TEMPS SHOULD PEAK
OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE
STARVED AND ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS TO POP UP FROM IT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAIN STATES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
ADVERTISING A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE...BUT THE 12Z RUNS HAVE COMPLETELY LOST THIS
FEATURE NOW. THE PATTERN IS CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THE MODELS MAY PICK THIS FEATURE UP AGAIN AS
WE ARE STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. IT CAN BE NOTED THAT A FEW OF THE
EURO/GGEM ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING A STORM...SO FOR NOW I JUST
WENT WITH SLIGHT POP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KHIE WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS AT MVFR OR
BETTER. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALOFT...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW AND PUSH OUT THE MOISTURE...BRINGING ALL
SITES BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WE PUSHED THEM BACK TIL LATER TONIGHT AS THEY
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY GUSTING AROUND 40 KT
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY
PRESENT SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AS
WELL AS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
UP AS IS DUE TO A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT THE THREAT
IS DIMINISHING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. TONIGHT/S MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE IS
THE LOWER OF THE CYCLE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISSUES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON
RECORD ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250508
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND BRING PLEASANT
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1205 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED TO DEPICT BREAK IN RAIN SHIELD
NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE. NH IS MOSTLY RAIN FREE AT THE
MOMENT AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN 4-6 HOURS AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STALL OR
SLOWLY INCREASE ENSURING P TYPE IS RAIN. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RAIN
SHIELDS DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AND BECOME A NUISANCE BEFORE
DAYBREAK... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT OR OCCLUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NH. NOT REALLY SURE HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES
IT...BUT IT MAY JUST REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NH BEFORE
AN OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...30S AND 40S WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM OCCLUSION MOVES
THROUGH AND PERHAPS PUSHES TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE FALLING BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO THE MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE AND
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY. A FEW 50 MPH GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.

CONTINUED CLEARING AND BREEZY THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A LARGE RIDGE IS SET UP
OVER THE REGION. WEATHER WILL BE QUITE NICE AS TEMPS SHOULD PEAK
OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE
STARVED AND ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS TO POP UP FROM IT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAIN STATES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
ADVERTISING A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE...BUT THE 12Z RUNS HAVE COMPLETELY LOST THIS
FEATURE NOW. THE PATTERN IS CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THE MODELS MAY PICK THIS FEATURE UP AGAIN AS
WE ARE STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. IT CAN BE NOTED THAT A FEW OF THE
EURO/GGEM ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING A STORM...SO FOR NOW I JUST
WENT WITH SLIGHT POP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KHIE WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS AT MVFR OR
BETTER. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALOFT...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW AND PUSH OUT THE MOISTURE...BRINGING ALL
SITES BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WE PUSHED THEM BACK TIL LATER TONIGHT AS THEY
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY GUSTING AROUND 40 KT
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY
PRESENT SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AS
WELL AS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
UP AS IS DUE TO A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT THE THREAT
IS DIMINISHING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. TONIGHT/S MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE IS
THE LOWER OF THE CYCLE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISSUES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON
RECORD ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250504
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1204 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING NOW, THOUGH MANY AREAS
NOT BY MUCH. HAD TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST,
WHERE TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EXCEPT TEMPS TO
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND
WARM THINGS UP.

A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY RAIN IS PRESENT ON RADAR, WITH
RAIN PRESENTLY LIGHTENING UP IN BANGOR AND GREENVILLE AND THE BACK
EDGE ADVANCING EAST. WE HAVE 100 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE NIGHT, AND OPTED TO KEEP THE 100 PERCENT CHANCES GIVEN THAT
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST. EXPECT THE STEADIER RAIN TO MOVE BACK IN
AROUND DAYBREAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DID, HOWEVER, REMOVE HEAVY
AT TIMES WORDING FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE DID DROP THE REMAINING PTN OF THE FZRA ADV. MOST LCTNS OVR THE
NW AND FAR NE WERE ABV FZG. LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCRETION IS BEING
OBSVD WITH THE FEW LCTNS AOB FZG...WITH FCST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A VERY LARGE ABV FZG LAYER XTNDG UPWARDS TO 750-800MB
OVR A NEAR FZG LAYER XTNDG ONLY 100-200FT ABV THE SFC. OVR THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS...EVERY LCTN OVR THE OLD ADV AREA WILL BE ABV FZG
AT THE SFC. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH FCST QPF
OVRNGT INTO THU WITH RNFL...SO NO CHGS IN EARLIER ISSUED FLOOD
WATCH.

OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS FCSTG A LLVL JET TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
INTERSECTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST BEGINNING LATE
TNGT WE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES. INITIALLY...
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE TNGT WILL BE LMTD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND SPCLY HIER TRRN LATE TNGT OVR THE WIND ADV AREA...WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DESCENDING TO LOWER TRRN DURING THE DAY THU
AS LLVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND GUSTS OVR THE REST OF THE FA COULD
APCH WIND ADV CRITERIA LATER THU INTO THU EVE...SO WE CANNOT RULE
OUT EXPANDING THE WIND ADV NWRD DURG THIS TM.

LASTLY...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY SLOWLY RISE THRU THE OVRNGT...WITH
MAX TEMPS THU MORN INTO MIDDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALG THE E SLOPES OF HIER TRRN XTNDG NE TO SW
ACROSS THE FA WHERE VERY SHALLOW LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING COULD HOLD
ON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FALL PRIOR TO SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS LABRADOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DOWN EAST
AREAS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DOWN EAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S
NORTH AND UPPER 20S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SRN QUEBEC. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE
ERN SEABOARD INTO SRN MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE INTO ERN
QUEBEC/NW MAINE...THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WRN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY SUN EVNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF MAINE. A LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC. BY MON MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
NRN MAINE. BY MON EVNG THE GEM/ECMWF INDICATE A LOW MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE NC COAST...THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF SC AND A
WEAK LOW OVER NRN NY. TUES MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW FROM OVER
NRN NY TO SW NOVA SCOTIA. THE GEM/ECMWF SHOWS THEIR LOWS IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NJ. BY TUE EVNG THE GFS SHOWS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT OVER MAINE...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING
SW FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH IT PCPN BAND EXTENDING INTO CNTRL
MAINE. WED MRNG THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...AND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF DEEPENS ITS LOW AND MOVES IT NORTH TO NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING INTO
NRN MAINE. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT EAST BY WED EVNG...BUILDS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AC ACROSS MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO
NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH WRAP AROUND PCPN EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MAINE.
BY THE OF THE PERIOD...BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY IFR TONIGHT IN RAIN, DRIZZLE, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. LOCAL MVFR, BUT PREDOMINANTLY WE WILL BE SEEING IFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR AT MOST LOCATIONS.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR MOST PLACES BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES, HOWEVER, HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME UP SO
FAR, AND HAVE LOWERED THEM A BIT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE. STILL EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT, THOUGH.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES ON TOP OF A
MELTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG SRLY WIND FETCH AND BUILDING WV HTS XPCTD WITH THE
JUST AFT MDNGT HI TIDE TNGT...WE DID ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WV WASH-
UP ABV THE MAX ASTRO TIDE MARK...WHICH COULD AFFECT A FEW LOW
LYING ROADS ALG THE DOWNEAST COASTLINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR BANGOR IS 54F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE
RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS
48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR
48F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN
CLIMATE...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 250504
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1204 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING NOW, THOUGH MANY AREAS
NOT BY MUCH. HAD TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST,
WHERE TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EXCEPT TEMPS TO
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND
WARM THINGS UP.

A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY RAIN IS PRESENT ON RADAR, WITH
RAIN PRESENTLY LIGHTENING UP IN BANGOR AND GREENVILLE AND THE BACK
EDGE ADVANCING EAST. WE HAVE 100 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE NIGHT, AND OPTED TO KEEP THE 100 PERCENT CHANCES GIVEN THAT
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST. EXPECT THE STEADIER RAIN TO MOVE BACK IN
AROUND DAYBREAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DID, HOWEVER, REMOVE HEAVY
AT TIMES WORDING FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE DID DROP THE REMAINING PTN OF THE FZRA ADV. MOST LCTNS OVR THE
NW AND FAR NE WERE ABV FZG. LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCRETION IS BEING
OBSVD WITH THE FEW LCTNS AOB FZG...WITH FCST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A VERY LARGE ABV FZG LAYER XTNDG UPWARDS TO 750-800MB
OVR A NEAR FZG LAYER XTNDG ONLY 100-200FT ABV THE SFC. OVR THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS...EVERY LCTN OVR THE OLD ADV AREA WILL BE ABV FZG
AT THE SFC. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH FCST QPF
OVRNGT INTO THU WITH RNFL...SO NO CHGS IN EARLIER ISSUED FLOOD
WATCH.

OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS FCSTG A LLVL JET TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
INTERSECTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST BEGINNING LATE
TNGT WE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES. INITIALLY...
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE TNGT WILL BE LMTD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND SPCLY HIER TRRN LATE TNGT OVR THE WIND ADV AREA...WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DESCENDING TO LOWER TRRN DURING THE DAY THU
AS LLVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND GUSTS OVR THE REST OF THE FA COULD
APCH WIND ADV CRITERIA LATER THU INTO THU EVE...SO WE CANNOT RULE
OUT EXPANDING THE WIND ADV NWRD DURG THIS TM.

LASTLY...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY SLOWLY RISE THRU THE OVRNGT...WITH
MAX TEMPS THU MORN INTO MIDDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALG THE E SLOPES OF HIER TRRN XTNDG NE TO SW
ACROSS THE FA WHERE VERY SHALLOW LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING COULD HOLD
ON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FALL PRIOR TO SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS LABRADOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DOWN EAST
AREAS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DOWN EAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S
NORTH AND UPPER 20S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SRN QUEBEC. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE
ERN SEABOARD INTO SRN MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE INTO ERN
QUEBEC/NW MAINE...THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WRN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY SUN EVNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF MAINE. A LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC. BY MON MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
NRN MAINE. BY MON EVNG THE GEM/ECMWF INDICATE A LOW MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE NC COAST...THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF SC AND A
WEAK LOW OVER NRN NY. TUES MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW FROM OVER
NRN NY TO SW NOVA SCOTIA. THE GEM/ECMWF SHOWS THEIR LOWS IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NJ. BY TUE EVNG THE GFS SHOWS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT OVER MAINE...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING
SW FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH IT PCPN BAND EXTENDING INTO CNTRL
MAINE. WED MRNG THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...AND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF DEEPENS ITS LOW AND MOVES IT NORTH TO NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING INTO
NRN MAINE. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT EAST BY WED EVNG...BUILDS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AC ACROSS MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO
NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH WRAP AROUND PCPN EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MAINE.
BY THE OF THE PERIOD...BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY IFR TONIGHT IN RAIN, DRIZZLE, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG. LOCAL MVFR, BUT PREDOMINANTLY WE WILL BE SEEING IFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR AT MOST LOCATIONS.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR MOST PLACES BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES, HOWEVER, HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME UP SO
FAR, AND HAVE LOWERED THEM A BIT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE
MIDNIGHT UPDATE. STILL EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT, THOUGH.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES ON TOP OF A
MELTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG SRLY WIND FETCH AND BUILDING WV HTS XPCTD WITH THE
JUST AFT MDNGT HI TIDE TNGT...WE DID ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WV WASH-
UP ABV THE MAX ASTRO TIDE MARK...WHICH COULD AFFECT A FEW LOW
LYING ROADS ALG THE DOWNEAST COASTLINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR BANGOR IS 54F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE
RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS
48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR
48F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN
CLIMATE...VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250315 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATE TODAY INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED TO DEPICT BREAK IN RAIN SHIELD
NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE. NH IS MOSTLY RAIN FREE AT THE
MOMENT AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN 4-6 HOURS AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STALL OR
SLOWLY INCREASE ENSURING P TYPE IS RAIN. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RAIN
SHIELDS DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AND BECOME A NUISANCE BEFORE
DAYBREAK... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG COLD FRONT OR OCCLUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NH. NOT REALLY SURE HOW FAR NORTH IT MAKES
IT...BUT IT MAY JUST REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NH BEFORE
AN OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...30S AND 40S WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WARM OCCLUSION MOVES
THROUGH AND PERHAPS PUSHES TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE FALLING BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO THE MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE AND
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY. A FEW 50 MPH GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED. JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.

CONTINUED CLEARING AND BREEZY THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A LARGE RIDGE IS SET UP
OVER THE REGION. WEATHER WILL BE QUITE NICE AS TEMPS SHOULD PEAK
OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE
STARVED AND ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS TO POP UP FROM IT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAIN STATES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
ADVERTISING A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE...BUT THE 12Z RUNS HAVE COMPLETELY LOST THIS
FEATURE NOW. THE PATTERN IS CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THE MODELS MAY PICK THIS FEATURE UP AGAIN AS
WE ARE STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. IT CAN BE NOTED THAT A FEW OF THE
EURO/GGEM ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING A STORM...SO FOR NOW I JUST
WENT WITH SLIGHT POP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KHIE WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS AT MVFR OR
BETTER. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALOFT...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW AND PUSH OUT THE MOISTURE...BRINGING ALL
SITES BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WE PUSHED THEM BACK TIL LATER TONIGHT AS THEY
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY GUSTING AROUND 40 KT
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY
PRESENT SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AS
WELL AS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
UP AS IS DUE TO A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT THE THREAT
IS DIMINISHING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. TONIGHT/S MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE IS
THE LOWER OF THE CYCLE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISSUES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON
RECORD ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 250218
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 2120 EST: BASED ON 9 PM OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
REMAINING COLD SPOTS IN THE ST JOHN RIVER VALLEY WILL SWITCH TO
RAIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE FORECAST FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING ARE ON TRACK BASED ON
RADAR/SATELLITE DATA. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE 1840 EST: SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ST JOHN RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUE TO REPORT FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE 30-32F RANGE.
THE REST OF EASTERN MAINE REPORTED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED DUE TO FOG GENERATED BY RAIN FALLING ON A
DEEP SNOW PACK. HEADLINES REMAIN UP FOR GALE CONDITIONS OVER
COASTAL WATERS AND FLOOD AND WIND CONCERNS INLAND.

WE DID DROP THE REMAINING PTN OF THE FZRA ADV. MOST LCTNS OVR THE
NW AND FAR NE WERE ABV FZG. LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCRETION IS BEING
OBSVD WITH THE FEW LCTNS AOB FZG...WITH FCST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A VERY LARGE ABV FZG LAYER XTNDG UPWARDS TO 750-800MB
OVR A NEAR FZG LAYER XTNDG ONLY 100-200FT ABV THE SFC. OVR THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS...EVERY LCTN OVR THE OLD ADV AREA WILL BE ABV FZG
AT THE SFC. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH FCST QPF
OVRNGT INTO THU WITH RNFL...SO NO CHGS IN EARLIER ISSUED FLOOD
WATCH.

OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS FCSTG A LLVL JET TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
INTERSECTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST BEGINNING LATE
TNGT WE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES. INITIALLY...
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE TNGT WILL BE LMTD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND SPCLY HIER TRRN LATE TNGT OVR THE WIND ADV AREA...WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DESCENDING TO LOWER TRRN DURING THE DAY THU
AS LLVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND GUSTS OVR THE REST OF THE FA COULD
APCH WIND ADV CRITERIA LATER THU INTO THU EVE...SO WE CANNOT RULE
OUT EXPANDING THE WIND ADV NWRD DURG THIS TM.

LASTLY...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY SLOWLY RISE THRU THE OVRNGT...WITH
MAX TEMPS THU MORN INTO MIDDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALG THE E SLOPES OF HIER TRRN XTNDG NE TO SW
ACROSS THE FA WHERE VERY SHALLOW LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING COULD HOLD
ON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FALL PRIOR TO SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS LABRADOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DOWN EAST
AREAS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DOWN EAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S
NORTH AND UPPER 20S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SRN QUEBEC. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE
ERN SEABOARD INTO SRN MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE INTO ERN
QUEBEC/NW MAINE...THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WRN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY SUN EVNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF MAINE. A LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC. BY MON MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
NRN MAINE. BY MON EVNG THE GEM/ECMWF INDICATE A LOW MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE NC COAST...THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF SC AND A
WEAK LOW OVER NRN NY. TUES MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW FROM OVER
NRN NY TO SW NOVA SCOTIA. THE GEM/ECMWF SHOWS THEIR LOWS IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NJ. BY TUE EVNG THE GFS SHOWS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT OVER MAINE...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING
SW FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH IT PCPN BAND EXTENDING INTO CNTRL
MAINE. WED MRNG THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...AND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF DEEPENS ITS LOW AND MOVES IT NORTH TO NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING INTO
NRN MAINE. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT EAST BY WED EVNG...BUILDS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AC ACROSS MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO
NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH WRAP AROUND PCPN EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MAINE.
BY THE OF THE PERIOD...BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TNGT AND THU MORN WILL FEATURE VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ALL TAF SITES IN LOW CLGS...FOG AND RN...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTN.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH ONGOING GLW WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT LATE
TNGT AS SE TO S WINDS INCREASE AND REMAINS SO THRU ALL OF THU
DAY AS WINDS VEER FROM S TO WSW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THU AFTN. WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE THRU THU FOR THIS
FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES ON TOP OF A
MELTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG SRLY WIND FETCH AND BUILDING WV HTS XPCTD WITH THE
JUST AFT MDNGT HI TIDE TNGT...WE DID ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WV WASH-
UP ABV THE MAX ASTRO TIDE MARK...WHICH COULD AFFECT A FEW LOW
LYING ROADS ALG THE DOWNEAST COASTLINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR BANGOR IS 54F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE
RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS
48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR
48F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 250218
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 2120 EST: BASED ON 9 PM OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
REMAINING COLD SPOTS IN THE ST JOHN RIVER VALLEY WILL SWITCH TO
RAIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE FORECAST FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING ARE ON TRACK BASED ON
RADAR/SATELLITE DATA. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE 1840 EST: SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ST JOHN RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUE TO REPORT FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE 30-32F RANGE.
THE REST OF EASTERN MAINE REPORTED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED DUE TO FOG GENERATED BY RAIN FALLING ON A
DEEP SNOW PACK. HEADLINES REMAIN UP FOR GALE CONDITIONS OVER
COASTAL WATERS AND FLOOD AND WIND CONCERNS INLAND.

WE DID DROP THE REMAINING PTN OF THE FZRA ADV. MOST LCTNS OVR THE
NW AND FAR NE WERE ABV FZG. LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCRETION IS BEING
OBSVD WITH THE FEW LCTNS AOB FZG...WITH FCST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A VERY LARGE ABV FZG LAYER XTNDG UPWARDS TO 750-800MB
OVR A NEAR FZG LAYER XTNDG ONLY 100-200FT ABV THE SFC. OVR THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS...EVERY LCTN OVR THE OLD ADV AREA WILL BE ABV FZG
AT THE SFC. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH FCST QPF
OVRNGT INTO THU WITH RNFL...SO NO CHGS IN EARLIER ISSUED FLOOD
WATCH.

OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS FCSTG A LLVL JET TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
INTERSECTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST BEGINNING LATE
TNGT WE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES. INITIALLY...
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE TNGT WILL BE LMTD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND SPCLY HIER TRRN LATE TNGT OVR THE WIND ADV AREA...WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DESCENDING TO LOWER TRRN DURING THE DAY THU
AS LLVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND GUSTS OVR THE REST OF THE FA COULD
APCH WIND ADV CRITERIA LATER THU INTO THU EVE...SO WE CANNOT RULE
OUT EXPANDING THE WIND ADV NWRD DURG THIS TM.

LASTLY...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY SLOWLY RISE THRU THE OVRNGT...WITH
MAX TEMPS THU MORN INTO MIDDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALG THE E SLOPES OF HIER TRRN XTNDG NE TO SW
ACROSS THE FA WHERE VERY SHALLOW LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING COULD HOLD
ON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FALL PRIOR TO SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS LABRADOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DOWN EAST
AREAS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DOWN EAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S
NORTH AND UPPER 20S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND SRN QUEBEC. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE
ERN SEABOARD INTO SRN MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE INTO ERN
QUEBEC/NW MAINE...THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WRN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY SUN EVNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF MAINE. A LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC. BY MON MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
NRN MAINE. BY MON EVNG THE GEM/ECMWF INDICATE A LOW MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE NC COAST...THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF SC AND A
WEAK LOW OVER NRN NY. TUES MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW FROM OVER
NRN NY TO SW NOVA SCOTIA. THE GEM/ECMWF SHOWS THEIR LOWS IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NJ. BY TUE EVNG THE GFS SHOWS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT OVER MAINE...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING
SW FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH IT PCPN BAND EXTENDING INTO CNTRL
MAINE. WED MRNG THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...AND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF DEEPENS ITS LOW AND MOVES IT NORTH TO NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING INTO
NRN MAINE. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT EAST BY WED EVNG...BUILDS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AC ACROSS MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO
NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH WRAP AROUND PCPN EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MAINE.
BY THE OF THE PERIOD...BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT
FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TNGT AND THU MORN WILL FEATURE VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ALL TAF SITES IN LOW CLGS...FOG AND RN...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTN.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH ONGOING GLW WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT LATE
TNGT AS SE TO S WINDS INCREASE AND REMAINS SO THRU ALL OF THU
DAY AS WINDS VEER FROM S TO WSW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THU AFTN. WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE THRU THU FOR THIS
FCST UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES ON TOP OF A
MELTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG SRLY WIND FETCH AND BUILDING WV HTS XPCTD WITH THE
JUST AFT MDNGT HI TIDE TNGT...WE DID ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WV WASH-
UP ABV THE MAX ASTRO TIDE MARK...WHICH COULD AFFECT A FEW LOW
LYING ROADS ALG THE DOWNEAST COASTLINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR BANGOR IS 54F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE
RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS
48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR
48F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




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