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000
FXUS61 KCAR 200418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES.


AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE






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000
FXUS61 KGYX 200350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS CLOUDS AND WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST... BUT IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPS TO
FALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SO HAVE LEFT FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.

9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KGYX 200102
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
902 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 192200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...ADDED A FEW SPRINKLES IN EASTERN AREAS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
HOUR. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA






000
FXUS61 KCAR 192200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...ADDED A FEW SPRINKLES IN EASTERN AREAS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
HOUR. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KGYX 191911
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
907 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 191307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
907 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 191153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KGYX 190654
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LINE
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE
NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR. FURTHER
SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
MC/JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1016 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KCAR 190216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1016 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KCAR 190216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1016 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KCAR 190216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1016 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KGYX 190159
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST. SHOWERS
HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
LGT SHWRS WERE NOTED.

645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190159
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST. SHOWERS
HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
LGT SHWRS WERE NOTED.

645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER










000
FXUS61 KCAR 182339
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
739 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE: BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF STRONGER RADAR REF INTO NE
PTNS OF THE FA...WE ADDED ISOLD TSTMS TO ERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND
ADJUSTED FCST QPF FOR THE 00-06Z TM FRAME BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KGYX 182258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
658 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 182216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW TSTMS OVR
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY JUST NW TO SW OF KMLT...MOVG NE AT
25 MPH. THE TREND OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
TO SHWRS OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE SFC COMPONENT OF CAPE
FALLS TO ZERO. ELEVATED CAPE COULD KEEP SOME CNVCTN RNFL RATES
GOING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS...BUT THE TREND OVRNGT SHOULD BE
FOR MSLY LGT TO MOD OVRRNG RNFL TO CONT AFFECTING THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. HRLY POPS AND TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THE OVRNGT
BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 182216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW TSTMS OVR
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY JUST NW TO SW OF KMLT...MOVG NE AT
25 MPH. THE TREND OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
TO SHWRS OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE SFC COMPONENT OF CAPE
FALLS TO ZERO. ELEVATED CAPE COULD KEEP SOME CNVCTN RNFL RATES
GOING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS...BUT THE TREND OVRNGT SHOULD BE
FOR MSLY LGT TO MOD OVRRNG RNFL TO CONT AFFECTING THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. HRLY POPS AND TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THE OVRNGT
BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 182216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW TSTMS OVR
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY JUST NW TO SW OF KMLT...MOVG NE AT
25 MPH. THE TREND OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
TO SHWRS OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE SFC COMPONENT OF CAPE
FALLS TO ZERO. ELEVATED CAPE COULD KEEP SOME CNVCTN RNFL RATES
GOING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS...BUT THE TREND OVRNGT SHOULD BE
FOR MSLY LGT TO MOD OVRRNG RNFL TO CONT AFFECTING THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. HRLY POPS AND TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THE OVRNGT
BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 182216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW TSTMS OVR
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY JUST NW TO SW OF KMLT...MOVG NE AT
25 MPH. THE TREND OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
TO SHWRS OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE SFC COMPONENT OF CAPE
FALLS TO ZERO. ELEVATED CAPE COULD KEEP SOME CNVCTN RNFL RATES
GOING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS...BUT THE TREND OVRNGT SHOULD BE
FOR MSLY LGT TO MOD OVRRNG RNFL TO CONT AFFECTING THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. HRLY POPS AND TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THE OVRNGT
BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REALITY IS JUST A
COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KCAR 181913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REALITY IS JUST A
COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KCAR 181913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REALITY IS JUST A
COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KCAR 181913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REALITY IS JUST A
COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KGYX 181828
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
228 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 181828
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
228 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 181625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...DECREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...DECREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 181405
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1005 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. THE 12Z KCAR SOUNDING INDICATED
THAT THIS LAYER WAS RATHER SHALLOW SO WE SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUD
LAYER BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS NYS WILL START TO FILL IN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NYS
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON FORECAST
MAINLY WITH REGARD TO SKY COVER THE REST OF THE DAY. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL
OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181405
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1005 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. THE 12Z KCAR SOUNDING INDICATED
THAT THIS LAYER WAS RATHER SHALLOW SO WE SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUD
LAYER BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS NYS WILL START TO FILL IN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NYS
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON FORECAST
MAINLY WITH REGARD TO SKY COVER THE REST OF THE DAY. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL
OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 181336
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
936 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE CHC TSTMS FOR THIS MORNING IN
WESTERN ZONES AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING PRODUCT SHOWING A FEW STRIKES IN SULLIVAN
COUNTY NH AT 930 THIS MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC...
HAVE BLENDED MESOSCALE MODELS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AROUND 18Z OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH 00Z OVER
THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STRONG
FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FORM...BRINGING PRECIP TO SEVERAL
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG EARLY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -4C ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
COAST...EXPECT ONLY LOWER 50S DESPITE STRONG DOWNSLOPING
SIGNATURES DURING THE DAY AND ADIABATIC WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. STILL CONCERNED THOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
STAY UP TOO MUCH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITHOUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
AT THE COAST. SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED IN THESE
AREAS A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AND FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
THE EAST. HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAKING
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INITIALLY BE WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MOVES
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. BUT IT WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE GENERALLY
BEING A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM... THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR TRANSPORT OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS STREAMING UP INTO THE SYSTEM... ULTIMATELY DEPOSITING IT
AS RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT PULLS IN EVEN
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM... THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN
OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT 4-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PRIMARILY ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS. THIS RIVER FLOODING SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE
ECMWF VERSION OF EVENTS UNFOLDS WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND
GREATER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED... DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 5OS) WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY IN
THE 40S).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DURING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN UP ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT REMAINS GUSTY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BUT THERE COULD BE A
RETURN TO STRONGER WINDS (THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST) FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 181336
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
936 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE CHC TSTMS FOR THIS MORNING IN
WESTERN ZONES AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING PRODUCT SHOWING A FEW STRIKES IN SULLIVAN
COUNTY NH AT 930 THIS MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC...
HAVE BLENDED MESOSCALE MODELS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AROUND 18Z OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH 00Z OVER
THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STRONG
FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FORM...BRINGING PRECIP TO SEVERAL
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG EARLY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -4C ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
COAST...EXPECT ONLY LOWER 50S DESPITE STRONG DOWNSLOPING
SIGNATURES DURING THE DAY AND ADIABATIC WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. STILL CONCERNED THOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
STAY UP TOO MUCH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITHOUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
AT THE COAST. SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED IN THESE
AREAS A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AND FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
THE EAST. HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAKING
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INITIALLY BE WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MOVES
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. BUT IT WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE GENERALLY
BEING A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM... THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR TRANSPORT OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS STREAMING UP INTO THE SYSTEM... ULTIMATELY DEPOSITING IT
AS RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT PULLS IN EVEN
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM... THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN
OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT 4-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PRIMARILY ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS. THIS RIVER FLOODING SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE
ECMWF VERSION OF EVENTS UNFOLDS WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND
GREATER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED... DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 5OS) WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY IN
THE 40S).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DURING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN UP ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT REMAINS GUSTY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BUT THERE COULD BE A
RETURN TO STRONGER WINDS (THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST) FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
754 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 181154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
754 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
754 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 181154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
754 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181033
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
633 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW
CROSSED THROUGH BINGHAMTON...SYRACUSE AND WATERTOWN. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ENTER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE BY MID
MORNING OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
COME INTO PLAY. ONLY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

HAVE INCREASED WIND GRIDS FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE ALIGNED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES.

PREV DISC...
HAVE BLENDED MESOSCALE MODELS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AROUND 18Z OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH 00Z OVER
THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STRONG
FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FORM...BRINGING PRECIP TO SEVERAL
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG EARLY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -4C ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
COAST...EXPECT ONLY LOWER 50S DESPITE STRONG DOWNSLOPING
SIGNATURES DURING THE DAY AND ADIABATIC WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. STILL CONCERNED THOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
STAY UP TOO MUCH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITHOUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
AT THE COAST. SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED IN THESE
AREAS A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AND FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
THE EAST. HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAKING
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INITIALLY BE WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MOVES
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. BUT IT WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE GENERALLY
BEING A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM... THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR TRANSPORT OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS STREAMING UP INTO THE SYSTEM... ULTIMATELY DEPOSITING IT
AS RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT PULLS IN EVEN
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM... THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN
OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT 4-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PRIMARILY ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS. THIS RIVER FLOODING SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE
ECMWF VERSION OF EVENTS UNFOLDS WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND
GREATER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED... DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 5OS) WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY IN
THE 40S).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DURING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN UP ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT REMAINS GUSTY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BUT THERE COULD BE A
RETURN TO STRONGER WINDS (THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST) FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 181033
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
633 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW
CROSSED THROUGH BINGHAMTON...SYRACUSE AND WATERTOWN. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ENTER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE BY MID
MORNING OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
COME INTO PLAY. ONLY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

HAVE INCREASED WIND GRIDS FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE ALIGNED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES.

PREV DISC...
HAVE BLENDED MESOSCALE MODELS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AROUND 18Z OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH 00Z OVER
THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STRONG
FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FORM...BRINGING PRECIP TO SEVERAL
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG EARLY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -4C ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
COAST...EXPECT ONLY LOWER 50S DESPITE STRONG DOWNSLOPING
SIGNATURES DURING THE DAY AND ADIABATIC WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. STILL CONCERNED THOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
STAY UP TOO MUCH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITHOUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
AT THE COAST. SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED IN THESE
AREAS A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AND FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
THE EAST. HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAKING
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INITIALLY BE WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MOVES
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. BUT IT WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE GENERALLY
BEING A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM... THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR TRANSPORT OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS STREAMING UP INTO THE SYSTEM... ULTIMATELY DEPOSITING IT
AS RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT PULLS IN EVEN
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM... THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN
OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT 4-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PRIMARILY ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS. THIS RIVER FLOODING SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE
ECMWF VERSION OF EVENTS UNFOLDS WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND
GREATER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED... DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 5OS) WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY IN
THE 40S).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DURING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN UP ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT REMAINS GUSTY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BUT THERE COULD BE A
RETURN TO STRONGER WINDS (THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST) FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 180913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO
THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL
USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9
FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH
THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KGYX 180702
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
HAVE BLENDED MESOSCALE MODELS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
AROUND 18Z OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH 00Z OVER THE
PENOBSCOT VALLEY AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STRONG FRONT...A
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FORM...BRINGING PRECIP TO SEVERAL
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG EARLY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -4C ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
COAST...EXPECT ONLY LOWER 50S DESPITE STRONG DOWNSLOPING
SIGNATURES DURING THE DAY AND ADIABATIC WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. STILL CONCERNED THOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
STAY UP TOO MUCH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITHOUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
AT THE COAST. SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED IN THESE
AREAS A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AND FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
THE EAST. HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAKING
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INITIALLY BE WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MOVES
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. BUT IT WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE GENERALLY
BEING A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM... THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR TRANSPORT OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS STREAMING UP INTO THE SYSTEM... ULTIMATELY DEPOSITING IT
AS RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT PULLS IN EVEN
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM... THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN
OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT 4-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PRIMARILY ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS. THIS RIVER FLOODING SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE
ECMWF VERSION OF EVENTS UNFOLDS WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND
GREATER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED... DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 5OS) WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY IN
THE 40S).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DURING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN UP ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT REMAINS GUSTY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BUT THERE COULD BE A
RETURN TO STRONGER WINDS (THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST) FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180702
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
HAVE BLENDED MESOSCALE MODELS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
AROUND 18Z OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH 00Z OVER THE
PENOBSCOT VALLEY AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STRONG FRONT...A
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FORM...BRINGING PRECIP TO SEVERAL
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG EARLY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -4C ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
COAST...EXPECT ONLY LOWER 50S DESPITE STRONG DOWNSLOPING
SIGNATURES DURING THE DAY AND ADIABATIC WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. STILL CONCERNED THOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
STAY UP TOO MUCH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITHOUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
AT THE COAST. SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED IN THESE
AREAS A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AND FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
THE EAST. HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAKING
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INITIALLY BE WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MOVES
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. BUT IT WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE GENERALLY
BEING A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM... THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR TRANSPORT OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS STREAMING UP INTO THE SYSTEM... ULTIMATELY DEPOSITING IT
AS RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT PULLS IN EVEN
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM... THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN
OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT 4-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PRIMARILY ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS. THIS RIVER FLOODING SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE
ECMWF VERSION OF EVENTS UNFOLDS WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND
GREATER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED... DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 5OS) WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY IN
THE 40S).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DURING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN UP ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT REMAINS GUSTY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BUT THERE COULD BE A
RETURN TO STRONGER WINDS (THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST) FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180702
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
HAVE BLENDED MESOSCALE MODELS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
AROUND 18Z OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH 00Z OVER THE
PENOBSCOT VALLEY AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STRONG FRONT...A
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FORM...BRINGING PRECIP TO SEVERAL
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG EARLY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -4C ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
COAST...EXPECT ONLY LOWER 50S DESPITE STRONG DOWNSLOPING
SIGNATURES DURING THE DAY AND ADIABATIC WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. STILL CONCERNED THOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
STAY UP TOO MUCH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITHOUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
AT THE COAST. SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED IN THESE
AREAS A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AND FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
THE EAST. HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAKING
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INITIALLY BE WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MOVES
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. BUT IT WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE GENERALLY
BEING A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM... THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR TRANSPORT OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS STREAMING UP INTO THE SYSTEM... ULTIMATELY DEPOSITING IT
AS RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT PULLS IN EVEN
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM... THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN
OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT 4-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PRIMARILY ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS. THIS RIVER FLOODING SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE
ECMWF VERSION OF EVENTS UNFOLDS WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND
GREATER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED... DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 5OS) WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY IN
THE 40S).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DURING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN UP ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT REMAINS GUSTY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BUT THERE COULD BE A
RETURN TO STRONGER WINDS (THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST) FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180702
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
HAVE BLENDED MESOSCALE MODELS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
AROUND 18Z OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH 00Z OVER THE
PENOBSCOT VALLEY AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STRONG FRONT...A
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL FORM...BRINGING PRECIP TO SEVERAL
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG EARLY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -4C ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
COAST...EXPECT ONLY LOWER 50S DESPITE STRONG DOWNSLOPING
SIGNATURES DURING THE DAY AND ADIABATIC WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. STILL CONCERNED THOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
STAY UP TOO MUCH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITHOUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
AT THE COAST. SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED IN THESE
AREAS A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AND FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
THE EAST. HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... MAKING
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INITIALLY BE WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MOVES
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. BUT IT WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE GENERALLY
BEING A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM... THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
ALLOW FOR TRANSPORT OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS STREAMING UP INTO THE SYSTEM... ULTIMATELY DEPOSITING IT
AS RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT PULLS IN EVEN
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN. WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM... THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN
OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT 4-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PRIMARILY ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS. THIS RIVER FLOODING SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IF THE
ECMWF VERSION OF EVENTS UNFOLDS WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND
GREATER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED... DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 5OS) WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY IN
THE 40S).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DURING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN UP ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT REMAINS GUSTY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BUT THERE COULD BE A
RETURN TO STRONGER WINDS (THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST) FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180555
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
155 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD
ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MILD WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SOME
MUCH CHILLIER AIR IS COMING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH,
ESPECIALLY UP IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BEGIN
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A WET SNOW
SHOWER IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
IN MANY SPOTS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50
DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE DOWNEAST REGION EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY ON SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE. A LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. WED MRNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS IT ALONG THE COAST
OF NJ...ECMWF ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH A SECONDARY LOW SE
OF CAPE COD...THE GEM OFF THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITIONS REFLECT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPICTION OF THE EXTEND TO THE PRECIP BANDS. THE GFS BRINGS PCPN
INTO THE PORTLAND AREA...THE ECMWF AND GEM INTO THE BAR HARBOR
AREA. BY WED EVNG THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
WITH PCPN SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE CROWN OF MAINE. ALL THREE SHOW
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS A SUPPORTING
CLOSE LOW AT 500 MB. ALL ARE SHOWING A SFC LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO
GO COLD CORE. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI...COLD CORE LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW...ACROSS MAINE. BY FRI EVNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS
THE BAY OF FUNDY. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD CORE LOW WILL
BE OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
WITH ANY PATCHY FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MVFR TO VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE GUSTY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOSTLY FOR A SOUTH SWELL IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS GUSTY COLD WEST
WINDS MOVE IN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 180555
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
155 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD
ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MILD WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SOME
MUCH CHILLIER AIR IS COMING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH,
ESPECIALLY UP IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BEGIN
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A WET SNOW
SHOWER IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
IN MANY SPOTS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50
DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE DOWNEAST REGION EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY ON SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE. A LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. WED MRNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS IT ALONG THE COAST
OF NJ...ECMWF ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH A SECONDARY LOW SE
OF CAPE COD...THE GEM OFF THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITIONS REFLECT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPICTION OF THE EXTEND TO THE PRECIP BANDS. THE GFS BRINGS PCPN
INTO THE PORTLAND AREA...THE ECMWF AND GEM INTO THE BAR HARBOR
AREA. BY WED EVNG THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
WITH PCPN SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE CROWN OF MAINE. ALL THREE SHOW
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS A SUPPORTING
CLOSE LOW AT 500 MB. ALL ARE SHOWING A SFC LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO
GO COLD CORE. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI...COLD CORE LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW...ACROSS MAINE. BY FRI EVNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS
THE BAY OF FUNDY. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD CORE LOW WILL
BE OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
WITH ANY PATCHY FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MVFR TO VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE GUSTY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOSTLY FOR A SOUTH SWELL IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS GUSTY COLD WEST
WINDS MOVE IN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 180555
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
155 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD
ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MILD WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SOME
MUCH CHILLIER AIR IS COMING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH,
ESPECIALLY UP IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BEGIN
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A WET SNOW
SHOWER IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
IN MANY SPOTS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50
DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE DOWNEAST REGION EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY ON SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE. A LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. WED MRNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS IT ALONG THE COAST
OF NJ...ECMWF ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH A SECONDARY LOW SE
OF CAPE COD...THE GEM OFF THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITIONS REFLECT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPICTION OF THE EXTEND TO THE PRECIP BANDS. THE GFS BRINGS PCPN
INTO THE PORTLAND AREA...THE ECMWF AND GEM INTO THE BAR HARBOR
AREA. BY WED EVNG THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
WITH PCPN SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE CROWN OF MAINE. ALL THREE SHOW
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS A SUPPORTING
CLOSE LOW AT 500 MB. ALL ARE SHOWING A SFC LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO
GO COLD CORE. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI...COLD CORE LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW...ACROSS MAINE. BY FRI EVNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS
THE BAY OF FUNDY. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD CORE LOW WILL
BE OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
WITH ANY PATCHY FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MVFR TO VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE GUSTY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOSTLY FOR A SOUTH SWELL IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS GUSTY COLD WEST
WINDS MOVE IN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 180555
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
155 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD
ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MILD WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SOME
MUCH CHILLIER AIR IS COMING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH,
ESPECIALLY UP IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BEGIN
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A WET SNOW
SHOWER IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
IN MANY SPOTS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50
DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE DOWNEAST REGION EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY ON SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE. A LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. WED MRNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS IT ALONG THE COAST
OF NJ...ECMWF ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH A SECONDARY LOW SE
OF CAPE COD...THE GEM OFF THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITIONS REFLECT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPICTION OF THE EXTEND TO THE PRECIP BANDS. THE GFS BRINGS PCPN
INTO THE PORTLAND AREA...THE ECMWF AND GEM INTO THE BAR HARBOR
AREA. BY WED EVNG THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
WITH PCPN SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE CROWN OF MAINE. ALL THREE SHOW
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS A SUPPORTING
CLOSE LOW AT 500 MB. ALL ARE SHOWING A SFC LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO
GO COLD CORE. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI...COLD CORE LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW...ACROSS MAINE. BY FRI EVNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS
THE BAY OF FUNDY. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD CORE LOW WILL
BE OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
WITH ANY PATCHY FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MVFR TO VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE GUSTY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOSTLY FOR A SOUTH SWELL IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS GUSTY COLD WEST
WINDS MOVE IN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER








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