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000
FXUS61 KGYX 202303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
352 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
352 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201824
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
124 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE IS PROBABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE TEMPORARILY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS MAY HIT 35 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
FORT KENT AFTER 5 PM AND SWEEP TOWARDS CARIBOU AFTER 6 PM. THE
LINE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201824
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
124 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE IS PROBABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE TEMPORARILY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS MAY HIT 35 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
FORT KENT AFTER 5 PM AND SWEEP TOWARDS CARIBOU AFTER 6 PM. THE
LINE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201809
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
109 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1PM UPDATE... INCREASE WINDSPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GUSTS
HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
CONTINUE THOUGH TOMORROW AND WILL BE CONSIDERING HEADLINES WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE.

9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A
BIT COLDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201809
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
109 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1PM UPDATE... INCREASE WINDSPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GUSTS
HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
CONTINUE THOUGH TOMORROW AND WILL BE CONSIDERING HEADLINES WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE.

9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A
BIT COLDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE MAY SET UP AND CREATE TEMPORARILY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...MUST LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE MAY SET UP AND CREATE TEMPORARILY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...MUST LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT COLDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS IN
ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT COLDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS IN
ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT COLDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS IN
ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT COLDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS IN
ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 201121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
621 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
621 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWING UP A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING. IN FACT THE HRRR AND RUC NOW HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MAINE AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MAIN UPDATE WAS
TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND TO BUMP UP THE POPS
A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINICZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...THE KCBW (HODGDON, MAINE) RADAR WENT DOWN AROUND 0100
EST THIS MORNING. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RETURN TO
SERVICE.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...CB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200826
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
326 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTRW DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200826
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
326 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTRW DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 200739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINICZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINICZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 200429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1129 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1129 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS AS OF 11 PM...AND AS LOW AS 2F AT ESTCOURT
STATION. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.
CLOUDS ARE THICKENING UP ALONG THE COAST...AND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TOWARD
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK
FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED
TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM THIS CLIPPER AND ITS
PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO THE COASTAL REGION
TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THAT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND UP THE EASTERN
BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST SOME 5 OR 6
HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS A
HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED OUT
OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION AS
WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT SNOW ENDS BUT
CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. THE
ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD RESULT IN A
SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TOWARDS PRESQUE
ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD LAY DOWN A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/OKULSKI/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
917 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 2120 EST: A FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. NO CHANGES IN THOUGHT TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

UPDATE 1835 EST: OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING ACROSS NY STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FLAT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO MAINLY
DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
917 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 2120 EST: A FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. NO CHANGES IN THOUGHT TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

UPDATE 1835 EST: OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING ACROSS NY STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FLAT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO MAINLY
DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
917 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 2120 EST: A FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. NO CHANGES IN THOUGHT TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

UPDATE 1835 EST: OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING ACROSS NY STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FLAT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO MAINLY
DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
917 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 2120 EST: A FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. NO CHANGES IN THOUGHT TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

UPDATE 1835 EST: OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING ACROSS NY STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FLAT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO MAINLY
DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 192332
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 1835 EST: OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING ACROSS NY STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FLAT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO MAINLY
DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 192332
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 1835 EST: OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING ACROSS NY STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FLAT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO MAINLY
DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 192332
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 1835 EST: OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING ACROSS NY STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FLAT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO MAINLY
DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 192332
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE 1835 EST: OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING ACROSS NY STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FLAT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO MAINLY
DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...OKULSKI/MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192027
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
REMAINING MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO RECORD SETTING SNOWBANDS
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE IN NORTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BACKS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACTED BY
ADVANCING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY
DRY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT TO CONTINUE TO TRIGGER A FEW MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES IN THE N/MOUNTAINS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE
MODEL RUNS FROM THE 12Z SUITE.

INSOLATION FROM THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF
FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLIP ACROSS THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TRIGGER
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE 3RD PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(THURSDAY NIGHT)....SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BRINGING COLD TEMPS TO THE REGION. WHILE 850MB TEMPS
START OFF AT -15C ON FRIDAY... THEY WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY BEGINS WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SAME FLOW WILL KEEP WIND
GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS.... WITHOUT MUCH
DECREASE UNTIL WE FINALLY START TO SEE THE WAA KICK IN SATURDAY
MORNING. OVER LAND... THE CLEAR SKIES WILL WORK IN OUR FAVOR...
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS A NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETS UP AND
GENERALLY DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER LAND.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF SHORE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT... AND DECREASING THE WINDS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH.... RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES BUT A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH A FAIRLY LARGE AND CLASSIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE... THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY
MORNING... AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO PUT
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE DAY.
TEMPS THAT WARM ARE TOO GOOD TO LAST AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING US TO OUR
REGULARLY SCHEDULED EARLY WINTER TEMPERATURES.

THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AN LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK
INTO PLACE. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
CERTAINLY HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE
ON THE EXISTENCE OF THE FEATURES WHICH IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THIS LONG A TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING STORM WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE IFR RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL GO UP ONCE AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CANNON/CURTIS
MARINE...CANNON/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192027
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
REMAINING MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO RECORD SETTING SNOWBANDS
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE IN NORTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BACKS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACTED BY
ADVANCING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY
DRY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT TO CONTINUE TO TRIGGER A FEW MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES IN THE N/MOUNTAINS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE
MODEL RUNS FROM THE 12Z SUITE.

INSOLATION FROM THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF
FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLIP ACROSS THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TRIGGER
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE 3RD PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(THURSDAY NIGHT)....SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BRINGING COLD TEMPS TO THE REGION. WHILE 850MB TEMPS
START OFF AT -15C ON FRIDAY... THEY WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY BEGINS WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SAME FLOW WILL KEEP WIND
GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS.... WITHOUT MUCH
DECREASE UNTIL WE FINALLY START TO SEE THE WAA KICK IN SATURDAY
MORNING. OVER LAND... THE CLEAR SKIES WILL WORK IN OUR FAVOR...
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS A NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETS UP AND
GENERALLY DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER LAND.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF SHORE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT... AND DECREASING THE WINDS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH.... RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES BUT A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH A FAIRLY LARGE AND CLASSIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE... THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY
MORNING... AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO PUT
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE DAY.
TEMPS THAT WARM ARE TOO GOOD TO LAST AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING US TO OUR
REGULARLY SCHEDULED EARLY WINTER TEMPERATURES.

THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AN LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK
INTO PLACE. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
CERTAINLY HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE
ON THE EXISTENCE OF THE FEATURES WHICH IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THIS LONG A TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING STORM WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE IFR RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL GO UP ONCE AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CANNON/CURTIS
MARINE...CANNON/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192027
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
REMAINING MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO RECORD SETTING SNOWBANDS
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE IN NORTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BACKS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACTED BY
ADVANCING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY
DRY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT TO CONTINUE TO TRIGGER A FEW MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES IN THE N/MOUNTAINS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE
MODEL RUNS FROM THE 12Z SUITE.

INSOLATION FROM THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF
FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLIP ACROSS THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TRIGGER
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE 3RD PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(THURSDAY NIGHT)....SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BRINGING COLD TEMPS TO THE REGION. WHILE 850MB TEMPS
START OFF AT -15C ON FRIDAY... THEY WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY BEGINS WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SAME FLOW WILL KEEP WIND
GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS.... WITHOUT MUCH
DECREASE UNTIL WE FINALLY START TO SEE THE WAA KICK IN SATURDAY
MORNING. OVER LAND... THE CLEAR SKIES WILL WORK IN OUR FAVOR...
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS A NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETS UP AND
GENERALLY DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER LAND.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF SHORE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT... AND DECREASING THE WINDS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH.... RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES BUT A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH A FAIRLY LARGE AND CLASSIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE... THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY
MORNING... AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO PUT
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE DAY.
TEMPS THAT WARM ARE TOO GOOD TO LAST AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING US TO OUR
REGULARLY SCHEDULED EARLY WINTER TEMPERATURES.

THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AN LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK
INTO PLACE. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
CERTAINLY HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE
ON THE EXISTENCE OF THE FEATURES WHICH IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THIS LONG A TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING STORM WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE IFR RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL GO UP ONCE AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CANNON/CURTIS
MARINE...CANNON/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192027
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
REMAINING MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO RECORD SETTING SNOWBANDS
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE IN NORTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BACKS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACTED BY
ADVANCING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY
DRY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT TO CONTINUE TO TRIGGER A FEW MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES IN THE N/MOUNTAINS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE
MODEL RUNS FROM THE 12Z SUITE.

INSOLATION FROM THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF
FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLIP ACROSS THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TRIGGER
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE 3RD PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(THURSDAY NIGHT)....SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BRINGING COLD TEMPS TO THE REGION. WHILE 850MB TEMPS
START OFF AT -15C ON FRIDAY... THEY WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY BEGINS WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SAME FLOW WILL KEEP WIND
GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS.... WITHOUT MUCH
DECREASE UNTIL WE FINALLY START TO SEE THE WAA KICK IN SATURDAY
MORNING. OVER LAND... THE CLEAR SKIES WILL WORK IN OUR FAVOR...
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS A NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETS UP AND
GENERALLY DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER LAND.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF SHORE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT... AND DECREASING THE WINDS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH.... RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES BUT A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH A FAIRLY LARGE AND CLASSIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE... THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY
MORNING... AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO PUT
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE DAY.
TEMPS THAT WARM ARE TOO GOOD TO LAST AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING US TO OUR
REGULARLY SCHEDULED EARLY WINTER TEMPERATURES.

THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AN LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK
INTO PLACE. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
CERTAINLY HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE
ON THE EXISTENCE OF THE FEATURES WHICH IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THIS LONG A TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING STORM WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE IFR RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL GO UP ONCE AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM... FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CANNON/CURTIS
MARINE...CANNON/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191934
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
234 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191934
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
234 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE AND TOWARDS THE 20F MARK FOR BANGOR. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POSTED TONIGHT`S LOWS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS. ENERGY FROM
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS PARENT LOW IN ONTARIO WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE COASTAL REGION TONIGHT AS A CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS DOWN EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
UP THE EASTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST
SOME 5 OR 6 HOURS IN PARTS OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK...AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS A HALF INCH. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPEED OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION AS WELL AS BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE LIGHT
SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO NW AROOSTOOK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND COULD
RESULT IN A SNOW SQUALL TRAVELING OUT OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A SQUALL COULD
LAY DOWN A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY WILL THEN
BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST BUT
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST
COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CARRYING WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT PULLS AN OCCLUSION NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY BUT MILD WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE OCCLUSION SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE AND A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. MODERATELY COOLER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY DEPENDING HOW CLOSE
IT TRACKS TO THE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. BHB WILL BECOME MVFR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL END
TOWARDS MID-MORNING. THIS SAME SNOW COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF IFR AT BGR EARLY MORNING BEFORE BOTH BHB AND BGR BECOME VFR.
FURTHER NORTH...ALL SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING VFR
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS AND REMAIN MVFR EARLY SUNDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEARLY GALE LEVELS.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS LATER.

SHORT TERM:  AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING A GALE EARLY FRIDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191729
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191729
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191729
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191729
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 191711
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1211 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO BAND CONTINUES TO RIDE ACROSS
NRN NYS THRU VT AND NH AND INTO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS IN MAINE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGION FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE BAND DISSIPATES AND RIDGING OCCURS
IN THIS REGION. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONCUR WITH THIS SCENARIO...DRYING UP THE PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WIND
FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.


PREV DISC...
555 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING IN THE
NH/WRN ME MTNS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN
THE MTNS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW PSBL IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO REST OF FCST.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191500
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0945AM UPDATE...REDUCED CLOUDS TODAY AND INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO BASED ON ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191500
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0945AM UPDATE...REDUCED CLOUDS TODAY AND INCREASED HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO BASED ON ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191427
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO BAND CONTINUES TO RIDE ACROSS
NRN NYS THRU VT AND NH AND INTO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS IN MAINE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGION FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE BAND DISSIPATES AND RIDGING OCCUR IN
THIS REGION. COULD SEE UP TO ANOTHER INCH BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONCUR WITH THIS SCENARIO...DRYING UP THE PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WIND
FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.


PREV DISC...
555 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING IN THE
NH/WRN ME MTNS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN
THE MTNS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW PSBL IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO REST OF FCST.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 191427
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO BAND CONTINUES TO RIDE ACROSS
NRN NYS THRU VT AND NH AND INTO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS IN MAINE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGION FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE BAND DISSIPATES AND RIDGING OCCUR IN
THIS REGION. COULD SEE UP TO ANOTHER INCH BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONCUR WITH THIS SCENARIO...DRYING UP THE PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WIND
FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.


PREV DISC...
555 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING IN THE
NH/WRN ME MTNS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN
THE MTNS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW PSBL IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO REST OF FCST.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191107
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLENDED INTO
FORECASTED AFTERNOON MAX. INCREASED CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191107
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLENDED INTO
FORECASTED AFTERNOON MAX. INCREASED CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191059
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
559 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING IN THE
NH/WRN ME MTNS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN
THE MTNS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW PSBL IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO REST OF FCST.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191059
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
559 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING IN THE
NH/WRN ME MTNS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN
THE MTNS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW PSBL IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO REST OF FCST.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191059
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
559 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING IN THE
NH/WRN ME MTNS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN
THE MTNS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW PSBL IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO REST OF FCST.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191059
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
559 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
555AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING IN THE
NH/WRN ME MTNS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN
THE MTNS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW PSBL IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO REST OF FCST.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190840
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 190840
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
BY MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS 12Z THU WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SW QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.  A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF UP THE BAY OF FUNDY BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.  THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THU
MORNING.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.  ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A GUSTY WIND FRI WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. HIGHS FRI WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ST LAWRENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW STREAMERS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A P/SUNNY DAY
DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRI NIGHT
WILL LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE
COAST. IF THE SKY CAN CLEAR AND IF THE WIND CAN GO CALM...SOME OF
THE NW VALLEYS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. SAT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE REAL COLD DAYS WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 20S
NORTH TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP SAT NIGHT AND SUN USHERING THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. COLDER AIR SHOULD SWEEP BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR LCL MVFR CIGS KFVE/KCAR
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR THU IN SCT -SHSN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IFR THU MORNING IN A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW AT
KBHB...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF KBHB. MAINLY VFR FOR THU PM AND THU NIGHT...EXCEPT
CONTINUED POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THROUGH NOON TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES...MAINLY IN
GUSTS FRI AS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190814
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190814
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190814
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190814
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS OTRW DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OVER DOWNSLOPING AREAS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
S/WV MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS SUNDAY.
MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALES TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

FRI...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WIND AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST AS IT IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ISOLATED EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAST-MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INITIALLY...BUT A FAST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STORY FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AM CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR
CYCLOGENESIS AROUND THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST DURING THURSDAY AS
THE PARENT LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. THIS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND HANCOCK COUNTY. PREFER THE NAM
AND SREF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WILL BE THE SPEED AND
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A
RATHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE.
IT WILL START TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. IF THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS...DIGS SOUTHWARD AND ALLOWS THE UPPER FLOW TO
BACK...IT WILL ALLOW THE SECONDARY LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. IF THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND SPEEDS ACROSS
QUEBEC...THEN THE SECONDARY LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK INTO THE
MARITIMES AND DEVELOP WELL EAST OF MAINE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
LATTER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE IMPACTING
COASTAL DOWN EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD
GENERATE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN EAST WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ON THE
COAST AS HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIPE OUT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE  AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FRESH
ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE A VERY BRISK FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE VERY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE LOW-TOPPED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE AN ISSUE IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS FRIDAY MORNING.. ST LAWRENCE RIVER MOISTURE AND SO-CALLED
STREAMERS COULD IMPACT THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH WITH
SOME MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEP AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING SOME VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
THEN BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WARMER MOIST AIR
CIRCULATING IN AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST,
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WEST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL THEN PULL MUCH
MILDER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MVFR AT BHB BY
LATE EVENING. BY LATE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE`S A
CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE RISK IS
HIGHEST AT BHB. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HUL. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH OF HUL ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN RETURN TO VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND THE RISK OF A
LOW END GALE FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 190507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST AS IT IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ISOLATED EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAST-MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INITIALLY...BUT A FAST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STORY FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AM CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR
CYCLOGENESIS AROUND THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST DURING THURSDAY AS
THE PARENT LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. THIS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND HANCOCK COUNTY. PREFER THE NAM
AND SREF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WILL BE THE SPEED AND
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A
RATHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE.
IT WILL START TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. IF THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS...DIGS SOUTHWARD AND ALLOWS THE UPPER FLOW TO
BACK...IT WILL ALLOW THE SECONDARY LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. IF THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND SPEEDS ACROSS
QUEBEC...THEN THE SECONDARY LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK INTO THE
MARITIMES AND DEVELOP WELL EAST OF MAINE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
LATTER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE IMPACTING
COASTAL DOWN EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD
GENERATE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN EAST WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ON THE
COAST AS HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIPE OUT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE  AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FRESH
ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE A VERY BRISK FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE VERY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE LOW-TOPPED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE AN ISSUE IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS FRIDAY MORNING.. ST LAWRENCE RIVER MOISTURE AND SO-CALLED
STREAMERS COULD IMPACT THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH WITH
SOME MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEP AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING SOME VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
THEN BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WARMER MOIST AIR
CIRCULATING IN AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST,
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WEST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL THEN PULL MUCH
MILDER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MVFR AT BHB BY
LATE EVENING. BY LATE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE`S A
CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE RISK IS
HIGHEST AT BHB. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HUL. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH OF HUL ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN RETURN TO VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND THE RISK OF A
LOW END GALE FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190238
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
938 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 2140 EST: WINDS HAVE EASED UP A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF MAINE BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MAINE
WOODS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE 1855 EST: BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE AT 7 PM WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE WINDS
APPEARED TO BE DECOUPLING...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW
BREEZES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ISOLATED EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAST-MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INITIALLY...BUT A FAST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STORY FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AM CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR
CYCLOGENESIS AROUND THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST DURING THURSDAY AS
THE PARENT LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. THIS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND HANCOCK COUNTY. PREFER THE NAM
AND SREF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WILL BE THE SPEED AND
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A
RATHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE.
IT WILL START TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. IF THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS...DIGS SOUTHWARD AND ALLOWS THE UPPER FLOW TO
BACK...IT WILL ALLOW THE SECONDARY LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. IF THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND SPEEDS ACROSS
QUEBEC...THEN THE SECONDARY LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK INTO THE
MARITIMES AND DEVELOP WELL EAST OF MAINE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
LATTER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE IMPACTING
COASTAL DOWN EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD
GENERATE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN EAST WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ON THE
COAST AS HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIPE OUT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE  AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FRESH
ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE A VERY BRISK FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE VERY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE LOW-TOPPED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE AN ISSUE IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS FRIDAY MORNING.. ST LAWRENCE RIVER MOISTURE AND SO-CALLED
STREAMERS COULD IMPACT THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH WITH
SOME MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEP AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING SOME VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
THEN BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WARMER MOIST AIR
CIRCULATING IN AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST,
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WEST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL THEN PULL MUCH
MILDER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MVFR AT BHB BY
LATE EVENING. BY LATE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE`S A
CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE RISK IS
HIGHEST AT BHB. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HUL. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH OF HUL ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN RETURN TO VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND THE RISK OF A
LOW END GALE FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 190238
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
938 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 2140 EST: WINDS HAVE EASED UP A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF MAINE BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MAINE
WOODS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE 1855 EST: BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE AT 7 PM WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE WINDS
APPEARED TO BE DECOUPLING...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW
BREEZES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ISOLATED EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAST-MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INITIALLY...BUT A FAST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STORY FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AM CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR
CYCLOGENESIS AROUND THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST DURING THURSDAY AS
THE PARENT LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. THIS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND HANCOCK COUNTY. PREFER THE NAM
AND SREF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WILL BE THE SPEED AND
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A
RATHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE.
IT WILL START TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. IF THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS...DIGS SOUTHWARD AND ALLOWS THE UPPER FLOW TO
BACK...IT WILL ALLOW THE SECONDARY LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. IF THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND SPEEDS ACROSS
QUEBEC...THEN THE SECONDARY LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK INTO THE
MARITIMES AND DEVELOP WELL EAST OF MAINE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
LATTER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE IMPACTING
COASTAL DOWN EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD
GENERATE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN EAST WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ON THE
COAST AS HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIPE OUT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE  AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FRESH
ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE A VERY BRISK FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE VERY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE LOW-TOPPED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE AN ISSUE IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS FRIDAY MORNING.. ST LAWRENCE RIVER MOISTURE AND SO-CALLED
STREAMERS COULD IMPACT THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH WITH
SOME MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEP AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING SOME VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
THEN BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WARMER MOIST AIR
CIRCULATING IN AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST,
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WEST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL THEN PULL MUCH
MILDER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MVFR AT BHB BY
LATE EVENING. BY LATE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE`S A
CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE RISK IS
HIGHEST AT BHB. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HUL. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH OF HUL ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN RETURN TO VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND THE RISK OF A
LOW END GALE FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 190238
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
938 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 2140 EST: WINDS HAVE EASED UP A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF MAINE BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MAINE
WOODS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE 1855 EST: BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE AT 7 PM WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE WINDS
APPEARED TO BE DECOUPLING...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW
BREEZES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ISOLATED EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAST-MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INITIALLY...BUT A FAST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STORY FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AM CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR
CYCLOGENESIS AROUND THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST DURING THURSDAY AS
THE PARENT LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. THIS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND HANCOCK COUNTY. PREFER THE NAM
AND SREF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WILL BE THE SPEED AND
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A
RATHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE.
IT WILL START TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. IF THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS...DIGS SOUTHWARD AND ALLOWS THE UPPER FLOW TO
BACK...IT WILL ALLOW THE SECONDARY LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. IF THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND SPEEDS ACROSS
QUEBEC...THEN THE SECONDARY LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK INTO THE
MARITIMES AND DEVELOP WELL EAST OF MAINE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
LATTER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE IMPACTING
COASTAL DOWN EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD
GENERATE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN EAST WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ON THE
COAST AS HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIPE OUT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE  AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FRESH
ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE A VERY BRISK FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE VERY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE LOW-TOPPED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE AN ISSUE IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS FRIDAY MORNING.. ST LAWRENCE RIVER MOISTURE AND SO-CALLED
STREAMERS COULD IMPACT THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH WITH
SOME MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEP AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING SOME VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
THEN BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WARMER MOIST AIR
CIRCULATING IN AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST,
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WEST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL THEN PULL MUCH
MILDER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MVFR AT BHB BY
LATE EVENING. BY LATE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE`S A
CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE RISK IS
HIGHEST AT BHB. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HUL. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH OF HUL ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN RETURN TO VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND THE RISK OF A
LOW END GALE FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 190238
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
938 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 2140 EST: WINDS HAVE EASED UP A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF MAINE BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MAINE
WOODS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE 1855 EST: BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE AT 7 PM WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE WINDS
APPEARED TO BE DECOUPLING...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW
BREEZES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ISOLATED EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH...TO THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAST-MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INITIALLY...BUT A FAST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STORY FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AM CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR
CYCLOGENESIS AROUND THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST DURING THURSDAY AS
THE PARENT LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. THIS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND HANCOCK COUNTY. PREFER THE NAM
AND SREF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WILL BE THE SPEED AND
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A
RATHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE.
IT WILL START TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. IF THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS...DIGS SOUTHWARD AND ALLOWS THE UPPER FLOW TO
BACK...IT WILL ALLOW THE SECONDARY LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. IF THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND SPEEDS ACROSS
QUEBEC...THEN THE SECONDARY LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK INTO THE
MARITIMES AND DEVELOP WELL EAST OF MAINE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
LATTER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE IMPACTING
COASTAL DOWN EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD
GENERATE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN EAST WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ON THE
COAST AS HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIPE OUT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE  AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FRESH
ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE A VERY BRISK FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE VERY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE LOW-TOPPED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE AN ISSUE IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS FRIDAY MORNING.. ST LAWRENCE RIVER MOISTURE AND SO-CALLED
STREAMERS COULD IMPACT THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH WITH
SOME MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEP AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING SOME VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
THEN BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WARMER MOIST AIR
CIRCULATING IN AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST,
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WEST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL THEN PULL MUCH
MILDER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MVFR AT BHB BY
LATE EVENING. BY LATE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE`S A
CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE RISK IS
HIGHEST AT BHB. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HUL. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH OF HUL ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN RETURN TO VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND THE RISK OF A
LOW END GALE FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW



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