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000
FXUS61 KGYX 160145
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
945 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FCST. DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT WE ARE IN
WARNING MODE FOR MOST INTERIOR ZONES DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. THE FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN SINCE THERE IS LIMITED RAINFALL IN THAT AREA AND NO SNOW
MELT.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADV
WHICH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THRU
THE NGT. STILL SHOULD CONT TO BE WINDY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
THAN EXPECTED, EXCEPT NRN NH INTO ADJACENT WRN ME WHERE FLOOD
WARNINGS WERE POSTED FOR SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS. STILL SHOULD
SEE ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE NGT. ALREADY BACKED OFF ON QPF
AMOUNTS THRU THE NGT. COLD FNT MOVING INTO WRN ME AT THIS TIME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W NW. STEADIER PRCP WILL EASE UP A
COUPLE HOURS OR SO AFTER THE FNT MOVES THRU AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FNT. PRCP WILL BE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEHIND THE
FNT WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE SN AND SLEET WILL
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LGT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. OVER
DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND CHANGE OVER WILL BE BRIEF AS DRIER AIR AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHUT OFF THE PRCP. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT
HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER WRN ZONES
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR ERN MOST ZONES.

BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE N/MT ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING...AND INTO THE 20S IN MANY OF
THESE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER TNGT TO VFR WITH HIE HOLDING ON TO MVFR CIG/VSBY THE
LONGEST. GUSTY W NW WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FNT THAT WILL MOVE E OF
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA. WILL CONT THE GLW WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONG S WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W NW AS A COLD FNT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. GALES CONT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. ALSO AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS
NRN NH INTO ADJACENT WRN ME. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS...
PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE
ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED...
SEE PWMFFAGYX FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 160145
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
945 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FCST. DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT WE ARE IN
WARNING MODE FOR MOST INTERIOR ZONES DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. THE FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN SINCE THERE IS LIMITED RAINFALL IN THAT AREA AND NO SNOW
MELT.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADV
WHICH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THRU
THE NGT. STILL SHOULD CONT TO BE WINDY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
THAN EXPECTED, EXCEPT NRN NH INTO ADJACENT WRN ME WHERE FLOOD
WARNINGS WERE POSTED FOR SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS. STILL SHOULD
SEE ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE NGT. ALREADY BACKED OFF ON QPF
AMOUNTS THRU THE NGT. COLD FNT MOVING INTO WRN ME AT THIS TIME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W NW. STEADIER PRCP WILL EASE UP A
COUPLE HOURS OR SO AFTER THE FNT MOVES THRU AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FNT. PRCP WILL BE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEHIND THE
FNT WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE SN AND SLEET WILL
FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LGT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. OVER
DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND CHANGE OVER WILL BE BRIEF AS DRIER AIR AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHUT OFF THE PRCP. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT
HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER WRN ZONES
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR ERN MOST ZONES.

BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE N/MT ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING...AND INTO THE 20S IN MANY OF
THESE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER TNGT TO VFR WITH HIE HOLDING ON TO MVFR CIG/VSBY THE
LONGEST. GUSTY W NW WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FNT THAT WILL MOVE E OF
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA. WILL CONT THE GLW WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONG S WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W NW AS A COLD FNT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. GALES CONT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. ALSO AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS
NRN NH INTO ADJACENT WRN ME. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS...
PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE
ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED...
SEE PWMFFAGYX FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 160142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE: BASED ON RAW MODEL TEMP OUTPUT THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE NGT INTO WED MORN...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SPCLY ACROSS WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA. OBS
FROM QB PROV AND NW NEW ENG SUPPORT THIS TREND. ALSO...A FEW LCTNS
ALSO REPORTED A BRIEF PD OF SLEET WITH THE TRANSITION TO SN AS
LLVL COLD AIR INITIALLY UNDERCUTS ABV FREEZING AIR IN THE 850 TO
900MB LAYER NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO WE
INCLUDED SLEET MSLY ACROSS WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHGS TO THE CURRENT HDLNS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FA
WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND
GUSTY S WINDS OVR NE AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION. FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON UPDATED FCST LOWS POSTED LATE AT 8 AM
STARTING FROM 8 PM THIS EVE.

ORGNL DISC: MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED
OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY
THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER
TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES
ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO...

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF
SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK
UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY
FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND
HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS
HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL
AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO
CONT INTO WED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&


$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 160142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE: BASED ON RAW MODEL TEMP OUTPUT THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE NGT INTO WED MORN...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SPCLY ACROSS WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA. OBS
FROM QB PROV AND NW NEW ENG SUPPORT THIS TREND. ALSO...A FEW LCTNS
ALSO REPORTED A BRIEF PD OF SLEET WITH THE TRANSITION TO SN AS
LLVL COLD AIR INITIALLY UNDERCUTS ABV FREEZING AIR IN THE 850 TO
900MB LAYER NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO WE
INCLUDED SLEET MSLY ACROSS WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHGS TO THE CURRENT HDLNS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FA
WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND
GUSTY S WINDS OVR NE AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION. FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON UPDATED FCST LOWS POSTED LATE AT 8 AM
STARTING FROM 8 PM THIS EVE.

ORGNL DISC: MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED
OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY
THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER
TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES
ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO...

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF
SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK
UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY
FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND
HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS
HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL
AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO
CONT INTO WED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&


$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KGYX 152258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
658 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST. DROPPED THE WIND ADV SINCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA AND WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THRU
THE NGT. STILL SHOULD CONT TO BE WINDY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
THAN EXPECTED BUT STILL SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE NGT.
BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS THRU THE NGT. COLD FNT MOVING THRU NH AT
THIS TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W NW. STEADIER PRCP WILL
EASE UP A COUPLE HOURS OR SO AFTER THE FNT MOVES THRU AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT HAVE
LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER WRN ZONES TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR ERN MOST ZONES.

MANY RIVERS IN NH AND WRN MAINE ARE IN FLOOD OR RISING TO FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS ARE ESCAPING THE BRUNT
OF ANY FLOODING DUE TO LACK OF SNOW MELT AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH UP ALL AREAS DUE TO FLOODING
OR THE POTENTIAL THAT THE LARGER RIVERS MAY SWELL TO BANKFUL AS
CRESTS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BRINGING THE RAIN
AND SNOW MELT FED WATERS.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT EXPECT PRCP TO MIX WITH THEN
CHANGE TO SN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET. BEST CHC FOR SN/SLEET WILL
BE ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES WHERE SOME LGT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE N/MT ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING...AND INTO THE 20S IN MANY OF
THESE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY
TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA. WILL CONT THE GLW WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONG S WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W NW AS A COLD FNT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. GALES CONT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 152258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
658 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST. DROPPED THE WIND ADV SINCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA AND WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THRU
THE NGT. STILL SHOULD CONT TO BE WINDY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
THAN EXPECTED BUT STILL SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE NGT.
BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS THRU THE NGT. COLD FNT MOVING THRU NH AT
THIS TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W NW. STEADIER PRCP WILL
EASE UP A COUPLE HOURS OR SO AFTER THE FNT MOVES THRU AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT HAVE
LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER WRN ZONES TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR ERN MOST ZONES.

MANY RIVERS IN NH AND WRN MAINE ARE IN FLOOD OR RISING TO FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS ARE ESCAPING THE BRUNT
OF ANY FLOODING DUE TO LACK OF SNOW MELT AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH UP ALL AREAS DUE TO FLOODING
OR THE POTENTIAL THAT THE LARGER RIVERS MAY SWELL TO BANKFUL AS
CRESTS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BRINGING THE RAIN
AND SNOW MELT FED WATERS.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT EXPECT PRCP TO MIX WITH THEN
CHANGE TO SN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET. BEST CHC FOR SN/SLEET WILL
BE ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES WHERE SOME LGT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE N/MT ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING...AND INTO THE 20S IN MANY OF
THESE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY
TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA. WILL CONT THE GLW WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONG S WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W NW AS A COLD FNT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. GALES CONT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 152258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
658 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST. DROPPED THE WIND ADV SINCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA AND WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THRU
THE NGT. STILL SHOULD CONT TO BE WINDY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
THAN EXPECTED BUT STILL SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE NGT.
BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS THRU THE NGT. COLD FNT MOVING THRU NH AT
THIS TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W NW. STEADIER PRCP WILL
EASE UP A COUPLE HOURS OR SO AFTER THE FNT MOVES THRU AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT HAVE
LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER WRN ZONES TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR ERN MOST ZONES.

MANY RIVERS IN NH AND WRN MAINE ARE IN FLOOD OR RISING TO FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS ARE ESCAPING THE BRUNT
OF ANY FLOODING DUE TO LACK OF SNOW MELT AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH UP ALL AREAS DUE TO FLOODING
OR THE POTENTIAL THAT THE LARGER RIVERS MAY SWELL TO BANKFUL AS
CRESTS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BRINGING THE RAIN
AND SNOW MELT FED WATERS.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT EXPECT PRCP TO MIX WITH THEN
CHANGE TO SN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET. BEST CHC FOR SN/SLEET WILL
BE ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES WHERE SOME LGT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE N/MT ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING...AND INTO THE 20S IN MANY OF
THESE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY
TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA. WILL CONT THE GLW WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONG S WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W NW AS A COLD FNT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. GALES CONT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 152258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
658 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST. DROPPED THE WIND ADV SINCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA AND WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THRU
THE NGT. STILL SHOULD CONT TO BE WINDY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
THAN EXPECTED BUT STILL SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE NGT.
BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS THRU THE NGT. COLD FNT MOVING THRU NH AT
THIS TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W NW. STEADIER PRCP WILL
EASE UP A COUPLE HOURS OR SO AFTER THE FNT MOVES THRU AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT HAVE
LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER WRN ZONES TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR ERN MOST ZONES.

MANY RIVERS IN NH AND WRN MAINE ARE IN FLOOD OR RISING TO FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS ARE ESCAPING THE BRUNT
OF ANY FLOODING DUE TO LACK OF SNOW MELT AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH UP ALL AREAS DUE TO FLOODING
OR THE POTENTIAL THAT THE LARGER RIVERS MAY SWELL TO BANKFUL AS
CRESTS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BRINGING THE RAIN
AND SNOW MELT FED WATERS.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT EXPECT PRCP TO MIX WITH THEN
CHANGE TO SN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET. BEST CHC FOR SN/SLEET WILL
BE ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES WHERE SOME LGT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE N/MT ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING...AND INTO THE 20S IN MANY OF
THESE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY
TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA. WILL CONT THE GLW WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONG S WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W NW AS A COLD FNT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. GALES CONT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCAR 152140
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
540 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: RAIN HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALL BUT THE FAR SERN THIRD OF OUR
FA... THIS UPDATE CYCLE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT
AND EXPECTED TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FCST ON TRACK...

PREV DISC: MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED
OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY
THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER
TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES
ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO...

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF
SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK
UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY
FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND
HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS
HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL
AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO
CONT INTO WED...&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW/DUDA
MARINE...KHW/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 152140
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
540 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: RAIN HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALL BUT THE FAR SERN THIRD OF OUR
FA... THIS UPDATE CYCLE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT
AND EXPECTED TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FCST ON TRACK...

PREV DISC: MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED
OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY
THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER
TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES
ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO...

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF
SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK
UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY
FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND
HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS
HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL
AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO
CONT INTO WED...&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW/DUDA
MARINE...KHW/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 151959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL
CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM
AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF
AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE
FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO...

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF
SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK
UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY
FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND
HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS
HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL
AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO
CONT INTO WED...&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...











000
FXUS61 KCAR 151959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL
CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM
AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF
AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE
FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO...

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF
SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK
UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY
FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND
HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS
HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL
AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO
CONT INTO WED...&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...











000
FXUS61 KCAR 151959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL
CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM
AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF
AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE
FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO...

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF
SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK
UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY
FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND
HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS
HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL
AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO
CONT INTO WED...&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...











000
FXUS61 KCAR 151959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL
CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM
AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF
AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE
FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO...

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF
SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK
UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY
FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND
HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS
HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL
AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO
CONT INTO WED...&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...











000
FXUS61 KGYX 151858
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN MAINE AT 230 THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL COMING IN WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF WHICH
LIKELY CAUSE MOST AREA RIVERS TO REACH BANK FULL OR HIGHER.
NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH MORE LIKELY TO
COME DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS OF 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW AS IT
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. BLACK ICE MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE IN NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS DIP BELOW
FREEZING. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE 20S FROM THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETEORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAINFALL IS THE KEY TO THE WHOLE FORECAST. RIVER
ARE ALREADY HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELT AND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE COMING IN QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS WILL HELP TO TEMPER THE RUNOFF TOMORROW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ022-025>028.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KGYX 151858
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN MAINE AT 230 THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL COMING IN WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF WHICH
LIKELY CAUSE MOST AREA RIVERS TO REACH BANK FULL OR HIGHER.
NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH MORE LIKELY TO
COME DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS OF 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW AS IT
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. BLACK ICE MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE IN NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS DIP BELOW
FREEZING. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE 20S FROM THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETEORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAINFALL IS THE KEY TO THE WHOLE FORECAST. RIVER
ARE ALREADY HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELT AND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE COMING IN QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS WILL HELP TO TEMPER THE RUNOFF TOMORROW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ022-025>028.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KCAR 151637
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: SHOWERS CONT TO BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR WRN AND CENTRAL AREAS
AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY XTNDG NNE-SSW FROM SRN QUEBEC
DOWN THRU ERN NYS AND THE MID ATLC STATES CONTS TO PUSH E.
HEAVIER PRECIP REMAINS BACK ACROSS WRN/NWRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ERN HALF OF NYS BUT THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING SLOWLY E AS WELL AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HYDRO
ISSUES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AND THESE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL
BLO. OUR RCVG SOME RPTS OF MINOR FLOODING ON SOME OF OUR SECONDARY ROADS
AS WATER POOLS UP IN FARM FIELDS AND SPILLS OVER THE ROADS BUT NO
RPTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING YET. ATTM...CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON
TRACK W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED...

PREV DISC:  A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP
THIS FRONT TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY.
WINDS AT 925 MB ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A
COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT
AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 151637
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: SHOWERS CONT TO BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR WRN AND CENTRAL AREAS
AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY XTNDG NNE-SSW FROM SRN QUEBEC
DOWN THRU ERN NYS AND THE MID ATLC STATES CONTS TO PUSH E.
HEAVIER PRECIP REMAINS BACK ACROSS WRN/NWRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ERN HALF OF NYS BUT THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING SLOWLY E AS WELL AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HYDRO
ISSUES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AND THESE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL
BLO. OUR RCVG SOME RPTS OF MINOR FLOODING ON SOME OF OUR SECONDARY ROADS
AS WATER POOLS UP IN FARM FIELDS AND SPILLS OVER THE ROADS BUT NO
RPTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING YET. ATTM...CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON
TRACK W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED...

PREV DISC:  A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP
THIS FRONT TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY.
WINDS AT 925 MB ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A
COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT
AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 151637
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: SHOWERS CONT TO BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR WRN AND CENTRAL AREAS
AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY XTNDG NNE-SSW FROM SRN QUEBEC
DOWN THRU ERN NYS AND THE MID ATLC STATES CONTS TO PUSH E.
HEAVIER PRECIP REMAINS BACK ACROSS WRN/NWRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ERN HALF OF NYS BUT THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING SLOWLY E AS WELL AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HYDRO
ISSUES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AND THESE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL
BLO. OUR RCVG SOME RPTS OF MINOR FLOODING ON SOME OF OUR SECONDARY ROADS
AS WATER POOLS UP IN FARM FIELDS AND SPILLS OVER THE ROADS BUT NO
RPTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING YET. ATTM...CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON
TRACK W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED...

PREV DISC:  A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP
THIS FRONT TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY.
WINDS AT 925 MB ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A
COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT
AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 151637
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: SHOWERS CONT TO BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR WRN AND CENTRAL AREAS
AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY XTNDG NNE-SSW FROM SRN QUEBEC
DOWN THRU ERN NYS AND THE MID ATLC STATES CONTS TO PUSH E.
HEAVIER PRECIP REMAINS BACK ACROSS WRN/NWRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ERN HALF OF NYS BUT THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING SLOWLY E AS WELL AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HYDRO
ISSUES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AND THESE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL
BLO. OUR RCVG SOME RPTS OF MINOR FLOODING ON SOME OF OUR SECONDARY ROADS
AS WATER POOLS UP IN FARM FIELDS AND SPILLS OVER THE ROADS BUT NO
RPTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING YET. ATTM...CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON
TRACK W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED...

PREV DISC:  A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP
THIS FRONT TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY.
WINDS AT 925 MB ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A
COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT
AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 151447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1047 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: WARM MOIST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY XTNDG NNE-SSW FROM SRN QUEBEC DOWN THRU
ERN NYS AND THE MID ATLC STATES. A FEW LGT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WRN
AREAS W/ HEAVIER PRECIP BACK ACROSS WRN/NWRN NEW ENGLAND AND NYS.
THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REACH OUR WRN AREAS THIS AFTN
THEN SPREAD EWRD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN
AND EVE. HYDRO ISSUES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AND THESE ADDRESSED
IN MORE DETAIL BLO. ATTM....CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON TRACK W/ NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED...

PREV DISC:  A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP
THIS FRONT TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY.
WINDS AT 925 MB ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A
COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT
AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 151447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1047 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: WARM MOIST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY XTNDG NNE-SSW FROM SRN QUEBEC DOWN THRU
ERN NYS AND THE MID ATLC STATES. A FEW LGT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WRN
AREAS W/ HEAVIER PRECIP BACK ACROSS WRN/NWRN NEW ENGLAND AND NYS.
THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REACH OUR WRN AREAS THIS AFTN
THEN SPREAD EWRD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN
AND EVE. HYDRO ISSUES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AND THESE ADDRESSED
IN MORE DETAIL BLO. ATTM....CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON TRACK W/ NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED...

PREV DISC:  A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP
THIS FRONT TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY.
WINDS AT 925 MB ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A
COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT
AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...KHW






000
FXUS61 KGYX 151253
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
853 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z UPDATE...
ISSUING WIND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
WILL MIX DOWN BUT ALREADY GUSTING TO NEAR 30 AND SHOULD NOT HAVE
MUCH PROBLEM REACHING GUSTS TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH CARVED OUT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE COUNTRY BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO EVEN THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IMPACTS FOR NEW ENGLAND WILL COME IN THE LIQUID FORM FOR
THE MOST PART AS WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. CURRENTLY
THE BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE VERMONT/ NY STATE BORDER AND ORIENTED
NNE TO SSW.

LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON WITH THE REAL RAIN NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT ITSELF CROSSES INTO
NH AND THEN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
INTENSIFY AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 55-65 KTS ACTS ON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
TRIGGERING FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. DID NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
SKIES ARE ALREADY BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST AND ROBBING NEW
ENGLANDERS OF A NICE LUNAR ECLIPSE. IN ADDITION SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN TODAY. INVERSION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE REASSESSED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
BRIEFLY AND DROP BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AROUND 2" OF SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR CATCHES UP TO THE MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARY WITH LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY
THERE WILL BE A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES... BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM CHILLY
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AND VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE... CALM WINDS... AND A LIKELY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO FALL OFF EASILY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REACH THE TEENS AND 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE AT PORTLAND ON THURSDAY IS 24 DEGREES SET IN 2003.
THE RECORD AT CONCORD IS 18 SET IN 1908. BOTH RECORDS ARE WITHIN
REACH OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST COLDER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS (AND THE MOS IN PARTICULAR) HAVE
BEEN INCREDIBLY BAD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER AND SPRING
SO FAR. SO SOME SKEPTICISM OF EXTREME COLD MAY BE WARRANTED. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE RECORD
LOWS AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COOL AIR FLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATHER A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL MOSTLY
FALL AS RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY MVFR AT THE MOMENT AND WILL
DROP PRECIPITOUSLY ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z AS RAIN BEGINS. HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD START BETWEEN 17 AND 20Z AND BRING MOST TERMINALS TO IFR
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR AROUND 16/4-6Z.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 151253
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
853 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z UPDATE...
ISSUING WIND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
WILL MIX DOWN BUT ALREADY GUSTING TO NEAR 30 AND SHOULD NOT HAVE
MUCH PROBLEM REACHING GUSTS TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH CARVED OUT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE COUNTRY BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO EVEN THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IMPACTS FOR NEW ENGLAND WILL COME IN THE LIQUID FORM FOR
THE MOST PART AS WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. CURRENTLY
THE BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE VERMONT/ NY STATE BORDER AND ORIENTED
NNE TO SSW.

LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON WITH THE REAL RAIN NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT ITSELF CROSSES INTO
NH AND THEN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
INTENSIFY AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 55-65 KTS ACTS ON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
TRIGGERING FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. DID NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
SKIES ARE ALREADY BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST AND ROBBING NEW
ENGLANDERS OF A NICE LUNAR ECLIPSE. IN ADDITION SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN TODAY. INVERSION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE REASSESSED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
BRIEFLY AND DROP BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AROUND 2" OF SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR CATCHES UP TO THE MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARY WITH LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY
THERE WILL BE A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES... BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM CHILLY
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AND VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE... CALM WINDS... AND A LIKELY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO FALL OFF EASILY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REACH THE TEENS AND 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE AT PORTLAND ON THURSDAY IS 24 DEGREES SET IN 2003.
THE RECORD AT CONCORD IS 18 SET IN 1908. BOTH RECORDS ARE WITHIN
REACH OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST COLDER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS (AND THE MOS IN PARTICULAR) HAVE
BEEN INCREDIBLY BAD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER AND SPRING
SO FAR. SO SOME SKEPTICISM OF EXTREME COLD MAY BE WARRANTED. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE RECORD
LOWS AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COOL AIR FLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATHER A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL MOSTLY
FALL AS RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY MVFR AT THE MOMENT AND WILL
DROP PRECIPITOUSLY ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z AS RAIN BEGINS. HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD START BETWEEN 17 AND 20Z AND BRING MOST TERMINALS TO IFR
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR AROUND 16/4-6Z.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 151253
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
853 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z UPDATE...
ISSUING WIND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
WILL MIX DOWN BUT ALREADY GUSTING TO NEAR 30 AND SHOULD NOT HAVE
MUCH PROBLEM REACHING GUSTS TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH CARVED OUT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE COUNTRY BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO EVEN THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IMPACTS FOR NEW ENGLAND WILL COME IN THE LIQUID FORM FOR
THE MOST PART AS WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. CURRENTLY
THE BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE VERMONT/ NY STATE BORDER AND ORIENTED
NNE TO SSW.

LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON WITH THE REAL RAIN NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT ITSELF CROSSES INTO
NH AND THEN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
INTENSIFY AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 55-65 KTS ACTS ON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
TRIGGERING FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. DID NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
SKIES ARE ALREADY BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST AND ROBBING NEW
ENGLANDERS OF A NICE LUNAR ECLIPSE. IN ADDITION SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN TODAY. INVERSION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE REASSESSED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
BRIEFLY AND DROP BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AROUND 2" OF SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR CATCHES UP TO THE MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARY WITH LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY
THERE WILL BE A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES... BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM CHILLY
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AND VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE... CALM WINDS... AND A LIKELY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO FALL OFF EASILY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REACH THE TEENS AND 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE AT PORTLAND ON THURSDAY IS 24 DEGREES SET IN 2003.
THE RECORD AT CONCORD IS 18 SET IN 1908. BOTH RECORDS ARE WITHIN
REACH OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST COLDER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS (AND THE MOS IN PARTICULAR) HAVE
BEEN INCREDIBLY BAD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER AND SPRING
SO FAR. SO SOME SKEPTICISM OF EXTREME COLD MAY BE WARRANTED. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE RECORD
LOWS AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COOL AIR FLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATHER A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL MOSTLY
FALL AS RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY MVFR AT THE MOMENT AND WILL
DROP PRECIPITOUSLY ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z AS RAIN BEGINS. HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD START BETWEEN 17 AND 20Z AND BRING MOST TERMINALS TO IFR
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR AROUND 16/4-6Z.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 151253
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
853 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z UPDATE...
ISSUING WIND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
WILL MIX DOWN BUT ALREADY GUSTING TO NEAR 30 AND SHOULD NOT HAVE
MUCH PROBLEM REACHING GUSTS TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH CARVED OUT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE COUNTRY BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO EVEN THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IMPACTS FOR NEW ENGLAND WILL COME IN THE LIQUID FORM FOR
THE MOST PART AS WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. CURRENTLY
THE BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE VERMONT/ NY STATE BORDER AND ORIENTED
NNE TO SSW.

LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON WITH THE REAL RAIN NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT ITSELF CROSSES INTO
NH AND THEN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
INTENSIFY AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 55-65 KTS ACTS ON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
TRIGGERING FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. DID NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
SKIES ARE ALREADY BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST AND ROBBING NEW
ENGLANDERS OF A NICE LUNAR ECLIPSE. IN ADDITION SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN TODAY. INVERSION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE REASSESSED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
BRIEFLY AND DROP BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AROUND 2" OF SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR CATCHES UP TO THE MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARY WITH LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY
THERE WILL BE A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES... BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM CHILLY
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AND VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE... CALM WINDS... AND A LIKELY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO FALL OFF EASILY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REACH THE TEENS AND 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE AT PORTLAND ON THURSDAY IS 24 DEGREES SET IN 2003.
THE RECORD AT CONCORD IS 18 SET IN 1908. BOTH RECORDS ARE WITHIN
REACH OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST COLDER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS (AND THE MOS IN PARTICULAR) HAVE
BEEN INCREDIBLY BAD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER AND SPRING
SO FAR. SO SOME SKEPTICISM OF EXTREME COLD MAY BE WARRANTED. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE RECORD
LOWS AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COOL AIR FLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATHER A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL MOSTLY
FALL AS RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY MVFR AT THE MOMENT AND WILL
DROP PRECIPITOUSLY ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z AS RAIN BEGINS. HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD START BETWEEN 17 AND 20Z AND BRING MOST TERMINALS TO IFR
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR AROUND 16/4-6Z.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCAR 151005
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
605 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE OCCURING IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS NEAR THE
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY STALLED IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE WEST THROUGH MIDDAY, AND THEN
PRESS EAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH WESTERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THIS FRONT TODAY.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY. WINDS AT 925 MB ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE
COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR
WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 151005
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
605 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE OCCURING IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS NEAR THE
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY STALLED IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE WEST THROUGH MIDDAY, AND THEN
PRESS EAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH WESTERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THIS FRONT TODAY.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY. WINDS AT 925 MB ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE
COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR
WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 150920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
520 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH WESTERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THIS FRONT TODAY.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY. WINDS AT 925 MB ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE
COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR
WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/NORCROSS















000
FXUS61 KCAR 150920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
520 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH WESTERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THIS FRONT TODAY.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY. WINDS AT 925 MB ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE
COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR
WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/NORCROSS















000
FXUS61 KCAR 150920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
520 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH WESTERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THIS FRONT TODAY.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY. WINDS AT 925 MB ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE
COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR
WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/NORCROSS















000
FXUS61 KCAR 150920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
520 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH WESTERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THIS FRONT TODAY.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW TO OUR WEST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST WILL CREATE A WARM WINDY DAY. WINDS AT 925 MB ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 KT LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE
COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
KT DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS LOW TO OUR
WEST LIFTS NORTH, A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY, WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD EXIT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND REMAIN IFR
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WARM HUMID AIR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: COULD STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE IS MOVING
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. A WARM WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT AND ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RISES ON
THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW MELT...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN NEARBY NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RISK OF ICE JAMS AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURGE FROM RAIN AND
SNOW MELT RAISES RIVER LEVELS AND CAUSES MOVEMENT OF ICE. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/NORCROSS















000
FXUS61 KGYX 150750
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH CARVED OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. A COLD
FRONT BISECTED THE COUNTRY BRINGING FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
TO EVEN THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IMPACTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND WILL COME IN THE LIQUID FORM FOR THE MOST PART AS WARM
MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. CURRENTLY THE BOUNDARY WAS NEAR
THE VERMONT/ NY STATE BORDER AND ORIENTED NNE TO SSW.

LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON WITH THE REAL RAIN NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT ITSELF CROSSES INTO
NH AND THEN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
INTENSIFY AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 55-65 KTS ACTS ON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
TRIGGERING FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. DID NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
SKIES ARE ALREADY BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST AND ROBBING NEW
ENGLANDERS OF A NICE LUNAR ECLIPSE. IN ADDITION SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN TODAY. INVERSION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE REASSESSED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
BRIEFLY AND DROP BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AROUND 2" OF SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR CATCHES UP TO THE MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARY WITH LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY
THERE WILL BE A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES... BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM CHILLY
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AND VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE... CALM WINDS... AND A LIKELY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO FALL OFF EASILY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REACH THE TEENS AND 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE AT PORTLAND ON THURSDAY IS 24 DEGREES SET IN 2003.
THE RECORD AT CONCORD IS 18 SET IN 1908. BOTH RECORDS ARE WITHIN
REACH OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST COLDER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS (AND THE MOS IN PARTICULAR) HAVE
BEEN INCREDIBLY BAD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER AND SPRING
SO FAR. SO SOME SKEPTICISM OF EXTREME COLD MAY BE WARRANTED. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE RECORD
LOWS AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COOL AIR FLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATHER A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL MOSTLY
FALL AS RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY MVFR AT THE MOMENT AND WILL
DROP PRECIPITOUSLY ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z AS RAIN BEGINS. HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD START BETWEEN 17 AND 20Z AND BRING MOST TERMINALS TO IFR
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR AROUND 16/4-6Z.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF RAPID SNOW MELT DUE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC RAINFALL WILL KEEP RIVERS RUNNING HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK.
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ICE
HAS BEEN MOVING ON THE CARRABASSETT RIVER AND SANDY RIVER IN
MAINE. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE MOST
RAIN FALLING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 150750
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH CARVED OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. A COLD
FRONT BISECTED THE COUNTRY BRINGING FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
TO EVEN THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IMPACTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND WILL COME IN THE LIQUID FORM FOR THE MOST PART AS WARM
MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. CURRENTLY THE BOUNDARY WAS NEAR
THE VERMONT/ NY STATE BORDER AND ORIENTED NNE TO SSW.

LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON WITH THE REAL RAIN NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT ITSELF CROSSES INTO
NH AND THEN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
INTENSIFY AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 55-65 KTS ACTS ON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
TRIGGERING FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. DID NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
SKIES ARE ALREADY BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST AND ROBBING NEW
ENGLANDERS OF A NICE LUNAR ECLIPSE. IN ADDITION SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN TODAY. INVERSION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE REASSESSED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
BRIEFLY AND DROP BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AROUND 2" OF SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR CATCHES UP TO THE MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARY WITH LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY
THERE WILL BE A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES... BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM CHILLY
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AND VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE... CALM WINDS... AND A LIKELY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO FALL OFF EASILY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REACH THE TEENS AND 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE AT PORTLAND ON THURSDAY IS 24 DEGREES SET IN 2003.
THE RECORD AT CONCORD IS 18 SET IN 1908. BOTH RECORDS ARE WITHIN
REACH OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST COLDER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS (AND THE MOS IN PARTICULAR) HAVE
BEEN INCREDIBLY BAD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER AND SPRING
SO FAR. SO SOME SKEPTICISM OF EXTREME COLD MAY BE WARRANTED. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE RECORD
LOWS AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COOL AIR FLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATHER A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL MOSTLY
FALL AS RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY MVFR AT THE MOMENT AND WILL
DROP PRECIPITOUSLY ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z AS RAIN BEGINS. HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD START BETWEEN 17 AND 20Z AND BRING MOST TERMINALS TO IFR
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR AROUND 16/4-6Z.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF RAPID SNOW MELT DUE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC RAINFALL WILL KEEP RIVERS RUNNING HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK.
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ICE
HAS BEEN MOVING ON THE CARRABASSETT RIVER AND SANDY RIVER IN
MAINE. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE MOST
RAIN FALLING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 150338
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1138 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11:40 PM UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL AS A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS AS A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 840 PM UPDATE...NO SIGN OF LESS THAN VFR CLGS
THIS HR AT ANY TAF SITES...NEVER MIND VSBY REDUCING FOG...SO WE MAY
NEED TO BACK THE ARRIVAL TMG OF LOW CLDNSS AND FOG ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES AT THIS POINT. HI/MID DECK CLDNSS FROM THE SHWR BAND
CURRENTLY SLOWLY CROSSING INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA IS LIKELY
KEEPING SFC-LLVL TEMP-DWPT DEPRESSIONS FROM DECREASING...INITIALLY
KEEPING LOW CLDNSS FROM FORMING OR SPREADING NWRD. STILL THINK
AT LEAST LOW ST DECK AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATE TNGT BASED ON SREF CLG/VSBY CAT PROBABILITIES...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR BY THE LATER ARRIVAL OF SHWRS.

ORGNL DISC...STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVE AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 150338
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1138 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11:40 PM UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL AS A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS AS A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 840 PM UPDATE...NO SIGN OF LESS THAN VFR CLGS
THIS HR AT ANY TAF SITES...NEVER MIND VSBY REDUCING FOG...SO WE MAY
NEED TO BACK THE ARRIVAL TMG OF LOW CLDNSS AND FOG ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES AT THIS POINT. HI/MID DECK CLDNSS FROM THE SHWR BAND
CURRENTLY SLOWLY CROSSING INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA IS LIKELY
KEEPING SFC-LLVL TEMP-DWPT DEPRESSIONS FROM DECREASING...INITIALLY
KEEPING LOW CLDNSS FROM FORMING OR SPREADING NWRD. STILL THINK
AT LEAST LOW ST DECK AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATE TNGT BASED ON SREF CLG/VSBY CAT PROBABILITIES...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR BY THE LATER ARRIVAL OF SHWRS.

ORGNL DISC...STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVE AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW






000
FXUS61 KGYX 150232 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS A LITTLE LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY WELL MIXED. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 150232 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS A LITTLE LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY WELL MIXED. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KCAR 150106
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
906 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
840 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE LEADING EDGE
OF SHWRS CROSSING INTO XTRM NW ME FROM ERN QB PROV...CLOSE TO THE
TMG OF FCST GRIDS...SO NO CHGS ARE NEEDED WITH REGARD TO POPS OVR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT HRS. AGAIN...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS
TO UNCHGD FCST OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM FROM 8 PM OBSVD TEMPS WITH
NO LARGE DEPARTURES AT THIS HR FROM THE PREV FCST.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 840 PM UPDATE...NO SIGN OF LESS THAN VFR CLGS
THIS HR AT ANY TAF SITES...NEVER MIND VSBY REDUCING FOG...SO WE MAY
NEED TO BACK THE ARRIVAL TMG OF LOW CLDNSS AND FOG ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES AT THIS POINT. HI/MID DECK CLDNSS FROM THE SHWR BAND
CURRENTLY SLOWLY CROSSING INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA IS LIKELY
KEEPING SFC-LLVL TEMP-DWPT DEPRESSIONS FROM DECREASING...INITIALLY
KEEPING LOW CLDNSS FROM FORMING OR SPREADING NWRD. STILL THINK
AT LEAST LOW ST DECK AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATE TNGT BASED ON SREF CLG/VSBY CAT PROBABILITIES...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR BY THE LATER ARRIVAL OF SHWRS.

ORGNL DISC...STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVE AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 150106
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
906 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
840 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE LEADING EDGE
OF SHWRS CROSSING INTO XTRM NW ME FROM ERN QB PROV...CLOSE TO THE
TMG OF FCST GRIDS...SO NO CHGS ARE NEEDED WITH REGARD TO POPS OVR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT HRS. AGAIN...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS
TO UNCHGD FCST OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM FROM 8 PM OBSVD TEMPS WITH
NO LARGE DEPARTURES AT THIS HR FROM THE PREV FCST.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 840 PM UPDATE...NO SIGN OF LESS THAN VFR CLGS
THIS HR AT ANY TAF SITES...NEVER MIND VSBY REDUCING FOG...SO WE MAY
NEED TO BACK THE ARRIVAL TMG OF LOW CLDNSS AND FOG ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES AT THIS POINT. HI/MID DECK CLDNSS FROM THE SHWR BAND
CURRENTLY SLOWLY CROSSING INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA IS LIKELY
KEEPING SFC-LLVL TEMP-DWPT DEPRESSIONS FROM DECREASING...INITIALLY
KEEPING LOW CLDNSS FROM FORMING OR SPREADING NWRD. STILL THINK
AT LEAST LOW ST DECK AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE
LATE TNGT BASED ON SREF CLG/VSBY CAT PROBABILITIES...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR BY THE LATER ARRIVAL OF SHWRS.

ORGNL DISC...STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVE AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW










000
FXUS61 KGYX 150045 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
845 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. POP LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR. TWEAKED TEMP...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 150045 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
845 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. POP LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR. TWEAKED TEMP...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 150045 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
845 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. POP LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR. TWEAKED TEMP...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 150045 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
845 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. POP LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR. TWEAKED TEMP...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 142246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS IN TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY. TIMING OUT THE SQUALL LINE
ACROSS NY STATE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SHRA WITHIN
THE NEXT 4 HOURS. HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE FIZZLES THE
LINE WITH TIME...AS IT ENTERS MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF NH AND ME. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO RAMP UP IN WRN ZONES
THIS EVENING...THEN DROP OFF OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 142246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS IN TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY. TIMING OUT THE SQUALL LINE
ACROSS NY STATE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SHRA WITHIN
THE NEXT 4 HOURS. HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE FIZZLES THE
LINE WITH TIME...AS IT ENTERS MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF NH AND ME. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO RAMP UP IN WRN ZONES
THIS EVENING...THEN DROP OFF OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 142246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS IN TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY. TIMING OUT THE SQUALL LINE
ACROSS NY STATE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SHRA WITHIN
THE NEXT 4 HOURS. HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE FIZZLES THE
LINE WITH TIME...AS IT ENTERS MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF NH AND ME. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO RAMP UP IN WRN ZONES
THIS EVENING...THEN DROP OFF OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 142246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS IN TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY. TIMING OUT THE SQUALL LINE
ACROSS NY STATE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SHRA WITHIN
THE NEXT 4 HOURS. HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE FIZZLES THE
LINE WITH TIME...AS IT ENTERS MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF NH AND ME. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO RAMP UP IN WRN ZONES
THIS EVENING...THEN DROP OFF OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KCAR 142222
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
622 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE: MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR E
A BAND OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL SHWRS REACH INTO OUR FA LATER TNGT. OF
THE MODELS...THE 18Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING QPF
VALUES OF 0.10-0.25 AS FAR E AS W CNTRL TO NE PTNS OF THE FA.
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF HARDLY BRINGS ANY RNFL EVEN
INTO THE NW PTN OF THE FA. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL SIMULATED
FCST RADAR REF SUGGESTS BRINGING UPWARDS OF ARND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO NW PTNS OF THE FA AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...RESULTING
IN INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY CAT OVR THE NW LATER TNGT AND
KEEPING CHC OR LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE.

REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL...BASED ON INITIAL NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF
FOG...WE DELAYED THE ONSET TIL 10 PM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS TIL
PROGRESSIVELY AS LATE AS 2 AM OVR THE NW AND FAR NE...THINKING
THAT SATURATION OF THE LLVL AIR MASS WILL WORK NW FROM THE
COAST...BUT WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THIS TMG WITH IT POSSIBLE
THAT FOG COULD BREAK OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY OVR RELATIVELY LARGE PTNS
OF THE FA ANYTIME AFT 9 PM. LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS TO
UNCHGD FCST OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS EVE
AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 142222
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
622 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE: MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR E
A BAND OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL SHWRS REACH INTO OUR FA LATER TNGT. OF
THE MODELS...THE 18Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING QPF
VALUES OF 0.10-0.25 AS FAR E AS W CNTRL TO NE PTNS OF THE FA.
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF HARDLY BRINGS ANY RNFL EVEN
INTO THE NW PTN OF THE FA. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL SIMULATED
FCST RADAR REF SUGGESTS BRINGING UPWARDS OF ARND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO NW PTNS OF THE FA AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...RESULTING
IN INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY CAT OVR THE NW LATER TNGT AND
KEEPING CHC OR LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE.

REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL...BASED ON INITIAL NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF
FOG...WE DELAYED THE ONSET TIL 10 PM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS TIL
PROGRESSIVELY AS LATE AS 2 AM OVR THE NW AND FAR NE...THINKING
THAT SATURATION OF THE LLVL AIR MASS WILL WORK NW FROM THE
COAST...BUT WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THIS TMG WITH IT POSSIBLE
THAT FOG COULD BREAK OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY OVR RELATIVELY LARGE PTNS
OF THE FA ANYTIME AFT 9 PM. LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS TO
UNCHGD FCST OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS EVE
AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 142222
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
622 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE: MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR E
A BAND OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL SHWRS REACH INTO OUR FA LATER TNGT. OF
THE MODELS...THE 18Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING QPF
VALUES OF 0.10-0.25 AS FAR E AS W CNTRL TO NE PTNS OF THE FA.
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF HARDLY BRINGS ANY RNFL EVEN
INTO THE NW PTN OF THE FA. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL SIMULATED
FCST RADAR REF SUGGESTS BRINGING UPWARDS OF ARND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO NW PTNS OF THE FA AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...RESULTING
IN INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY CAT OVR THE NW LATER TNGT AND
KEEPING CHC OR LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE.

REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL...BASED ON INITIAL NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF
FOG...WE DELAYED THE ONSET TIL 10 PM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS TIL
PROGRESSIVELY AS LATE AS 2 AM OVR THE NW AND FAR NE...THINKING
THAT SATURATION OF THE LLVL AIR MASS WILL WORK NW FROM THE
COAST...BUT WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THIS TMG WITH IT POSSIBLE
THAT FOG COULD BREAK OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY OVR RELATIVELY LARGE PTNS
OF THE FA ANYTIME AFT 9 PM. LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS TO
UNCHGD FCST OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS EVE
AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 142222
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
622 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE: MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR E
A BAND OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL SHWRS REACH INTO OUR FA LATER TNGT. OF
THE MODELS...THE 18Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING QPF
VALUES OF 0.10-0.25 AS FAR E AS W CNTRL TO NE PTNS OF THE FA.
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF HARDLY BRINGS ANY RNFL EVEN
INTO THE NW PTN OF THE FA. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL SIMULATED
FCST RADAR REF SUGGESTS BRINGING UPWARDS OF ARND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO NW PTNS OF THE FA AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...RESULTING
IN INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY CAT OVR THE NW LATER TNGT AND
KEEPING CHC OR LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE.

REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL...BASED ON INITIAL NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF
FOG...WE DELAYED THE ONSET TIL 10 PM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS TIL
PROGRESSIVELY AS LATE AS 2 AM OVR THE NW AND FAR NE...THINKING
THAT SATURATION OF THE LLVL AIR MASS WILL WORK NW FROM THE
COAST...BUT WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THIS TMG WITH IT POSSIBLE
THAT FOG COULD BREAK OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY OVR RELATIVELY LARGE PTNS
OF THE FA ANYTIME AFT 9 PM. LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS TO
UNCHGD FCST OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS EVE
AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 141952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM ICE
JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT...&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS EVE
AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...KHW/DUDA
MARINE...KHW/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW











000
FXUS61 KCAR 141952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM ICE
JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
HYDRO SECTION BLO...

AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT...&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS EVE
AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.

TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...KHW/DUDA
MARINE...KHW/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW










000
FXUS61 KGYX 141913
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
313 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER
SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.



&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELEVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETEORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUTNY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EALRIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KGYX 141913
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
313 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER
SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM
SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET
SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH.



&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND
SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY.

LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELEVES
ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO
NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION AT 222 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETEORATING
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUTNY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS
ISSUED EALRIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS
RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KGYX 141745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
145 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...LEAVING THE
COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED FOR 12 HOURS AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAITS ON A KICKER SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA. DURING
THIS TIME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FLOODING.

THIS SETUP...ALONG WITH RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND EXISTING ICE
JAMS... WILL CAUSE THE STILL SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MELT AND POSSIBLY FLOOD AREA RIVERS. THEREFORE A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WERE RAISED
TO OVER AN INCH FOR ALL AREAS WITH THIS PACKAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING WAS INCLUDING ALL DAY TUESDAY AS THIS IS WHEN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS
(COLD FRONT) AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS
INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARMISH DAY DESPITE THE FRONT AS WE GET
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS COLD
AIR WILL HAVE BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY
DAM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WE MAY SEE LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SUCH AS TEENS OVER NORTHERN NH AND MID
30S IN PLACES LIKE AUGUSTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS COLD AIR CATCHES UP THE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH
COLD ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE. THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
BY REGIONAL STANDARDS... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE AVERAGE
GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR PROVIDING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND A WIND SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.

THE STORY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...
SO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR AREAS WITH THE BEST COASTAL INFLUENCES ON
FRIDAY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR COASTAL REGIONS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INLAND... ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S AGAIN.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
LOW APPROACHES. SO EXPECT THE COOL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE... WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
AVAILABLE FOR SOME SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY RAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND... PUSHING THE
MARINE AIR BACK OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
AGAIN BACK INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CURRENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME HAS FOSTERED FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS WEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY. EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE ROCKLAND AND PERHAPS CONCORD WHICH SEEM MORE
ENTRENCHED IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO 20G30KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO START CLOSER TO 12Z TUE FOR
ALL SITES EXCEPT MAYBE KRKD WHICH MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER ON.


LONG TERM...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS
QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS... BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING MARINE
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM
TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
AM WEDNESDAY....AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. EXPECT
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO BE ROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KT BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
MAINE WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 141745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
145 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...LEAVING THE
COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED FOR 12 HOURS AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAITS ON A KICKER SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA. DURING
THIS TIME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FLOODING.

THIS SETUP...ALONG WITH RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND EXISTING ICE
JAMS... WILL CAUSE THE STILL SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MELT AND POSSIBLY FLOOD AREA RIVERS. THEREFORE A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WERE RAISED
TO OVER AN INCH FOR ALL AREAS WITH THIS PACKAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING WAS INCLUDING ALL DAY TUESDAY AS THIS IS WHEN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS
(COLD FRONT) AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS
INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARMISH DAY DESPITE THE FRONT AS WE GET
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS COLD
AIR WILL HAVE BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY
DAM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WE MAY SEE LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SUCH AS TEENS OVER NORTHERN NH AND MID
30S IN PLACES LIKE AUGUSTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS COLD AIR CATCHES UP THE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH
COLD ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE. THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
BY REGIONAL STANDARDS... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE AVERAGE
GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR PROVIDING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND A WIND SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.

THE STORY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...
SO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR AREAS WITH THE BEST COASTAL INFLUENCES ON
FRIDAY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR COASTAL REGIONS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INLAND... ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S AGAIN.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
LOW APPROACHES. SO EXPECT THE COOL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE... WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
AVAILABLE FOR SOME SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY RAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND... PUSHING THE
MARINE AIR BACK OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
AGAIN BACK INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CURRENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME HAS FOSTERED FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS WEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY. EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE ROCKLAND AND PERHAPS CONCORD WHICH SEEM MORE
ENTRENCHED IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO 20G30KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO START CLOSER TO 12Z TUE FOR
ALL SITES EXCEPT MAYBE KRKD WHICH MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER ON.


LONG TERM...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS
QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS... BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING MARINE
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM
TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
AM WEDNESDAY....AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. EXPECT
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO BE ROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KT BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
MAINE WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCAR 141720
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: TEMPS WARMING NICELY ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NERN AREAS W/ 60+
NOW RPTD ACROSS OUR WRN AND SRN AREAS. FCST MAXES SHOULD EASILY BE
REACHED THESE AREAS... HAVE ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS ACROSS NERN AREAS WHERE
COLD HAS HAS BEEN HARD TO ROOT OUT. STILL THINK FCST MAXES WILL BE
REACHED THESE AREAS JUST MAY OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THAN FCST...

PREV DISC: LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
DOWNEAST AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND
WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...MB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 141720
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: TEMPS WARMING NICELY ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NERN AREAS W/ 60+
NOW RPTD ACROSS OUR WRN AND SRN AREAS. FCST MAXES SHOULD EASILY BE
REACHED THESE AREAS... HAVE ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS ACROSS NERN AREAS WHERE
COLD HAS HAS BEEN HARD TO ROOT OUT. STILL THINK FCST MAXES WILL BE
REACHED THESE AREAS JUST MAY OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THAN FCST...

PREV DISC: LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
DOWNEAST AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND
WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...MB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 141409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT MOST AREAS SO HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE
FOG ADV TO EXPIRE.  NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM...

PREV DISC: LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
DOWNEAST AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND
WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...MB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 141409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT MOST AREAS SO HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE
FOG ADV TO EXPIRE.  NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM...

PREV DISC: LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
DOWNEAST AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND
WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...KHW/BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...MB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 141303
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: FOG REMAINS RATHER DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADV FOR ANOTHER HR - THRU 14Z. REMAINDER OF
THE FCST APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM...

PREV DISC: LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
DOWNEAST AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND
WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...MB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 141303
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: FOG REMAINS RATHER DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADV FOR ANOTHER HR - THRU 14Z. REMAINDER OF
THE FCST APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM...

PREV DISC: LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
DOWNEAST AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND
WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...MB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 141054
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER COOLER DAMP AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MIXING
SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG LATER THIS MORNING.

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 141054
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER COOLER DAMP AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MIXING
SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG LATER THIS MORNING.

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KGYX 141046 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO LOWER POPS AS SHOWERS END OVER
PORTIONS OF MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
EVERYWHERE AND HAVE RE-INTERPOLATED DIURNAL CURVE TO BETTER MATCH
THIS TREND.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS KEPT NH AND MAINE IN STRATUS AND FOG ALL
NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING UP UNTIL GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. TODAY LOOKS WARM BUT GUSTY WITH WINDS
IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AGAIN...THIS WILL HELP WITH WARMING AS WE ARE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THUS
THE RAIN...HOLDING IT OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING FOR NH
AND MAINE.

THAT LEAVES US WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR MID 70S
SOUTHWEST (!)...INCREASING CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF WIND. WE ARE OUT
OF RANGE FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE WOULD HAVE TO BEAT 77
IN PORTLAND AND 84 IN CONCORD...BUT STILL SHOULD BE QUITE LOVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...LEAVING THE
COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED FOR 12 HOURS AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAITS ON A KICKER SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA. DURING
THIS TIME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FLOODING.

THIS SETUP...ALONG WITH RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND EXISTING ICE
JAMS... WILL CAUSE THE STILL SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MELT AND POSSIBLY FLOOD AREA RIVERS. THEREFORE A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WERE RAISED
TO OVER AN INCH FOR ALL AREAS WITH THIS PACKAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING WAS INCLUDING ALL DAY TUESDAY AS THIS IS WHEN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS
(COLD FRONT) AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS
INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARMISH DAY DESPITE THE FRONT AS WE GET
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS COLD
AIR WILL HAVE BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY
DAM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WE MAY SEE LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SUCH AS TEENS OVER NORTHERN NH AND MID
30S IN PLACES LIKE AUGUSTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS COLD AIR CATCHES UP THE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH
COLD ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE. THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
BY REGIONAL STANDARDS... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE AVERAGE
GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR PROVIDING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND A WIND SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.

THE STORY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...
SO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR AREAS WITH THE BEST COASTAL INFLUENCES ON
FRIDAY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR COASTAL REGIONS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INLAND... ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S AGAIN.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
LOW APPROACHES. SO EXPECT THE COOL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE... WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
AVAILABLE FOR SOME SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY RAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND... PUSHING THE
MARINE AIR BACK OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
AGAIN BACK INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CURRENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME HAS FOSTERED FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS WEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY. EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE ROCKLAND AND PERHAPS CONCORD WHICH SEEM MORE
ENTRENCHED IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO 20G30KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO START CLOSER TO 12Z TUE FOR
ALL SITES EXCEPT MAYBE KRKD WHICH MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER ON.


LONG TERM...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS
QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS... BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING MARINE
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM
TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
AM WEDNESDAY....AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. EXPECT
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO BE ROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KT BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
MAINE WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW MELT CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...
CAUSING ELEVATED LEVELS IN JUST ABOUT ALL THE MAJOR RIVERS. THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE WATER LEVELS IN THE RIVERS
AND INCREASE THE SNOW MELT... LIKELY CAUSING SOME RIVERS TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW RIVERS FLIRTING WITH FLOOD STAGE. THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND WEST LEBANON HAVE BOTH HAD DAILY
CRESTS CORRESPONDING TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF SNOW MELT. THE CRESTS
HAVE GOTTEN HIGHER EACH EVENING AND BOTH LOCATIONS COULD BE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN ON TUESDAY COULD CAUSE BOTH
LOCATIONS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON BOTH LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND ISSUE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS WHEN FLOODING APPEARS IMMINENT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 140955
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS TRACKING ALONG THE WARM FRONT REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD SLIP EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS OF FOG AS
WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT.

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 140955
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS TRACKING ALONG THE WARM FRONT REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD SLIP EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL BE MILD WITH AREAS OF FOG AS
WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT.

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 140952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
552 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 140952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
552 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 140952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
552 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 140952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
552 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 140930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/NORCROSS



















000
FXUS61 KCAR 140930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/NORCROSS



















000
FXUS61 KCAR 140930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/NORCROSS



















000
FXUS61 KCAR 140930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND
PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN
ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE
TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED
ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW
MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN
VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT
ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL
THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/NORCROSS



















000
FXUS61 KGYX 140823
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
423 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS KEPT NH AND MAINE IN STRATUS AND FOG ALL
NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING UP UNTIL GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. TODAY LOOKS WARM BUT GUSTY WITH WINDS
IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AGAIN...THIS WILL HELP WITH WARMING AS WE ARE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THUS
THE RAIN...HOLDING IT OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING FOR NH
AND MAINE.

THAT LEAVES US WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR MID 70S
SOUTHWEST (!)...INCREASING CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF WIND. WE ARE OUT
OF RANGE FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE WOULD HAVE TO BEAT 77
IN PORTLAND AND 84 IN CONCORD...BUT STILL SHOULD BE QUITE LOVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...LEAVING THE
COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED FOR 12 HOURS AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAITS ON A KICKER SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA. DURING
THIS TIME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FLOODING.

THIS SETUP...ALONG WITH RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND EXISTING ICE
JAMS... WILL CAUSE THE STILL SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MELT AND POSSIBLY FLOOD AREA RIVERS. THEREFORE A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WERE RAISED
TO OVER AN INCH FOR ALL AREAS WITH THIS PACKAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING WAS INCLUDING ALL DAY TUESDAY AS THIS IS WHEN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS
(COLD FRONT) AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS
INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARMISH DAY DESPITE THE FRONT AS WE GET
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS COLD
AIR WILL HAVE BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY
DAM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WE MAY SEE LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SUCH AS TEENS OVER NORTHERN NH AND MID
30S IN PLACES LIKE AUGUSTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS COLD AIR CATCHES UP THE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH
COLD ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE. THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
BY REGIONAL STANDARDS... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE AVERAGE
GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR PROVIDING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND A WIND SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.

THE STORY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...
SO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR AREAS WITH THE BEST COASTAL INFLUENCES ON
FRIDAY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR COASTAL REGIONS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INLAND... ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S AGAIN.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
LOW APPROACHES. SO EXPECT THE COOL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE... WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
AVAILABLE FOR SOME SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY RAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND... PUSHING THE
MARINE AIR BACK OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
AGAIN BACK INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CURRENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME HAS FOSTERED FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS WEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY. EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE ROCKLAND AND PERHAPS CONCORD WHICH SEEM MORE
ENTRENCHED IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO 20G30KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO START CLOSER TO 12Z TUE FOR
ALL SITES EXCEPT MAYBE KRKD WHICH MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER ON.


LONG TERM...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS
QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS... BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING MARINE
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM
TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
AM WEDNESDAY....AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. EXPECT
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO BE ROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KT BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
MAINE WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW MELT CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...
CAUSING ELEVATED LEVELS IN JUST ABOUT ALL THE MAJOR RIVERS. THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE WATER LEVELS IN THE RIVERS
AND INCREASE THE SNOW MELT... LIKELY CAUSING SOME RIVERS TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW RIVERS FLIRTING WITH FLOOD STAGE. THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND WEST LEBANON HAVE BOTH HAD DAILY
CRESTS CORRESPONDING TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF SNOW MELT. THE CRESTS
HAVE GOTTEN HIGHER EACH EVENING AND BOTH LOCATIONS COULD BE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN ON TUESDAY COULD CAUSE BOTH
LOCATIONS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON BOTH LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND ISSUE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS WHEN FLOODING APPEARS IMMINENT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE






000
FXUS61 KGYX 140823
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
423 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS KEPT NH AND MAINE IN STRATUS AND FOG ALL
NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING UP UNTIL GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. TODAY LOOKS WARM BUT GUSTY WITH WINDS
IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AGAIN...THIS WILL HELP WITH WARMING AS WE ARE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THUS
THE RAIN...HOLDING IT OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING FOR NH
AND MAINE.

THAT LEAVES US WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR MID 70S
SOUTHWEST (!)...INCREASING CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF WIND. WE ARE OUT
OF RANGE FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE WOULD HAVE TO BEAT 77
IN PORTLAND AND 84 IN CONCORD...BUT STILL SHOULD BE QUITE LOVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...LEAVING THE
COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED FOR 12 HOURS AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAITS ON A KICKER SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA. DURING
THIS TIME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FLOODING.

THIS SETUP...ALONG WITH RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND EXISTING ICE
JAMS... WILL CAUSE THE STILL SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MELT AND POSSIBLY FLOOD AREA RIVERS. THEREFORE A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WERE RAISED
TO OVER AN INCH FOR ALL AREAS WITH THIS PACKAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING WAS INCLUDING ALL DAY TUESDAY AS THIS IS WHEN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS
(COLD FRONT) AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS
INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARMISH DAY DESPITE THE FRONT AS WE GET
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS COLD
AIR WILL HAVE BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY
DAM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WE MAY SEE LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SUCH AS TEENS OVER NORTHERN NH AND MID
30S IN PLACES LIKE AUGUSTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS COLD AIR CATCHES UP THE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH
COLD ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE. THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
BY REGIONAL STANDARDS... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE AVERAGE
GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR PROVIDING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND A WIND SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.

THE STORY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...
SO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR AREAS WITH THE BEST COASTAL INFLUENCES ON
FRIDAY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR COASTAL REGIONS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INLAND... ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S AGAIN.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
LOW APPROACHES. SO EXPECT THE COOL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE... WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
AVAILABLE FOR SOME SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY RAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...
EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND... PUSHING THE
MARINE AIR BACK OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
AGAIN BACK INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CURRENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME HAS FOSTERED FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS WEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY. EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE ROCKLAND AND PERHAPS CONCORD WHICH SEEM MORE
ENTRENCHED IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO 20G30KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO START CLOSER TO 12Z TUE FOR
ALL SITES EXCEPT MAYBE KRKD WHICH MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER ON.


LONG TERM...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS
QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS... BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING MARINE
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM
TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
AM WEDNESDAY....AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. EXPECT
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO BE ROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KT BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
MAINE WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW MELT CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...
CAUSING ELEVATED LEVELS IN JUST ABOUT ALL THE MAJOR RIVERS. THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE WATER LEVELS IN THE RIVERS
AND INCREASE THE SNOW MELT... LIKELY CAUSING SOME RIVERS TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW RIVERS FLIRTING WITH FLOOD STAGE. THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND WEST LEBANON HAVE BOTH HAD DAILY
CRESTS CORRESPONDING TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF SNOW MELT. THE CRESTS
HAVE GOTTEN HIGHER EACH EVENING AND BOTH LOCATIONS COULD BE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN ON TUESDAY COULD CAUSE BOTH
LOCATIONS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON BOTH LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND ISSUE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS WHEN FLOODING APPEARS IMMINENT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 140558
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 AM...RAIN IS MOVING AWAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR FAR
NORTHERN MAINE. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRES CURRENTLY CNTRD OVR THE ERN
GRT LAKES W/ A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN ONT AND NRN NYS
THEN SEWRD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ACROSS OUR REGION TO THE N OF
THIS WARM FRONT...VERY CHILLY AIR W/ OVERRUNNING SNOW AND RAIN.
SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE NRN AREAS
THIS AFTN AND THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS BEFORE
MILD AIR BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT UP ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE
INITIAL SURGE OF OVERRUNNING SNOW AND RAIN PASSES NXT FEW
HRS...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY NRN AREAS LATER THIS EVE BEFORE IT SLIDES E
OF THE AREA ERLY MON AM. THIS SECOND SLUG SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN BUT COULD STILL BE SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N FOR
A PD THIS EVE...

OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WARM FRONT IS FCST TO LIFT NEWRD UP ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TNGT INTO MON AM. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH
WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MON AFTN. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE W/ TEMPS ON MON TO BURST INTO THE 60S
MOST AREAS AND PSBLY EVEN TOUCH 70 IN A FEW AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE RAPID RATE OF SNOW MELT WHICH
WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FLOODING CONCERNS AND THESE ARE ADDRESSED
IN MORE DETAIL IN THE HYDRO SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AS SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
SNOW MELT AND CONTINUED ICE MOVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND ICE MELT/MOVEMENT ON AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS ON AREA RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION REGRADING HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASING
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THEN
MODELS BEGIN FALLING OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WE GET OUT TOWARD SATURDAY.
GFS IS INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT PROGRESSING EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STAYING SPLIT AND GENERALLY GIVING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. SINCE WE HAVE PLENTY TIME TO
CONTINUE TO LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH LITTLE NEED FOR MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FAR N W/ SOME SNOW W/ MVFR
CENTRAL/SRN AREAS ATTM... IFR SHOULD DVLP SRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN/EVE W/ IFR CONDS DVLPG AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY THE LATE EVE
HRS. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR THE THRU TNGT INTO MON AS A VERY WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW DVLPS ACROSS THE AREA...

SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN DEVELOPING RAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A BRISK SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCA CONDS GOING
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TUE...

SHORT TERM: GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY LATER SHIFTS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM AT TIMES IN
RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL CONT FLOOD WATCHES... MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
HAS SLOWED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF BUT AREA RIVERS/STREAM CONT TO SLOWLY
RISE. THIS TREND SHOULD ONLY INCREASE OVER THE NXT SEVERAL DAYS.

COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VERY MILD CONDS ON MON AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY S OF THE AREA LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA AS
WARM FRONT ERLY MON. IN ADDITION...RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TNGT WILL ADD ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF .25-.75 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION BY ERLY MON AM. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN THREAT
PD FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING REMAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MILDER TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
MELT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISING RIVER
LEVELS WHICH COULD CAUSE ICE TO MOVE AND POSSIBLY JAM.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES
AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT CONTINUING. ALL THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS AND RISING RIVER LEVELS THROUGH
MID WEEK...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 140558
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 AM...RAIN IS MOVING AWAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR FAR
NORTHERN MAINE. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRES CURRENTLY CNTRD OVR THE ERN
GRT LAKES W/ A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN ONT AND NRN NYS
THEN SEWRD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ACROSS OUR REGION TO THE N OF
THIS WARM FRONT...VERY CHILLY AIR W/ OVERRUNNING SNOW AND RAIN.
SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE NRN AREAS
THIS AFTN AND THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS BEFORE
MILD AIR BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT UP ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE
INITIAL SURGE OF OVERRUNNING SNOW AND RAIN PASSES NXT FEW
HRS...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY NRN AREAS LATER THIS EVE BEFORE IT SLIDES E
OF THE AREA ERLY MON AM. THIS SECOND SLUG SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN BUT COULD STILL BE SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N FOR
A PD THIS EVE...

OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WARM FRONT IS FCST TO LIFT NEWRD UP ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TNGT INTO MON AM. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH
WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MON AFTN. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE W/ TEMPS ON MON TO BURST INTO THE 60S
MOST AREAS AND PSBLY EVEN TOUCH 70 IN A FEW AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE RAPID RATE OF SNOW MELT WHICH
WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FLOODING CONCERNS AND THESE ARE ADDRESSED
IN MORE DETAIL IN THE HYDRO SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AS SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
SNOW MELT AND CONTINUED ICE MOVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND ICE MELT/MOVEMENT ON AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS ON AREA RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION REGRADING HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASING
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THEN
MODELS BEGIN FALLING OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WE GET OUT TOWARD SATURDAY.
GFS IS INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT PROGRESSING EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STAYING SPLIT AND GENERALLY GIVING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. SINCE WE HAVE PLENTY TIME TO
CONTINUE TO LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH LITTLE NEED FOR MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FAR N W/ SOME SNOW W/ MVFR
CENTRAL/SRN AREAS ATTM... IFR SHOULD DVLP SRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN/EVE W/ IFR CONDS DVLPG AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY THE LATE EVE
HRS. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR THE THRU TNGT INTO MON AS A VERY WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW DVLPS ACROSS THE AREA...

SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN DEVELOPING RAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A BRISK SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCA CONDS GOING
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TUE...

SHORT TERM: GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY LATER SHIFTS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM AT TIMES IN
RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL CONT FLOOD WATCHES... MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
HAS SLOWED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF BUT AREA RIVERS/STREAM CONT TO SLOWLY
RISE. THIS TREND SHOULD ONLY INCREASE OVER THE NXT SEVERAL DAYS.

COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VERY MILD CONDS ON MON AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY S OF THE AREA LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA AS
WARM FRONT ERLY MON. IN ADDITION...RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TNGT WILL ADD ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF .25-.75 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION BY ERLY MON AM. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN THREAT
PD FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING REMAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MILDER TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
MELT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISING RIVER
LEVELS WHICH COULD CAUSE ICE TO MOVE AND POSSIBLY JAM.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES
AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT CONTINUING. ALL THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS AND RISING RIVER LEVELS THROUGH
MID WEEK...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER








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