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000
FXUS61 KCAR 110257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOPRES CNTRD OVR THE NRN PART OF THE STATE WITH SFC TROF MVG
THRU WRN PORTIONS WL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO AREA THRU 06Z. HV
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH JUST SLGT CHC FOR -SHSN ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT THIS TIME. EXCEPTION WL BE ACRS DOWNEAST AREAS ON THE
NB BORDER. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 110257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOPRES CNTRD OVR THE NRN PART OF THE STATE WITH SFC TROF MVG
THRU WRN PORTIONS WL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO AREA THRU 06Z. HV
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH JUST SLGT CHC FOR -SHSN ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT THIS TIME. EXCEPTION WL BE ACRS DOWNEAST AREAS ON THE
NB BORDER. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 110257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOPRES CNTRD OVR THE NRN PART OF THE STATE WITH SFC TROF MVG
THRU WRN PORTIONS WL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO AREA THRU 06Z. HV
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH JUST SLGT CHC FOR -SHSN ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT THIS TIME. EXCEPTION WL BE ACRS DOWNEAST AREAS ON THE
NB BORDER. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 110011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO CWA FM THE WEST. WK SFC TROF WL BE SLIDING
ACRS AREA TONIGHT AND ENUF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXISTS TO WRING OUT
LGT -SHSN AT ANY POINT DRG THE NIGHT. UPDATED HRLY T/TD VALUES BUT
THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHGS TO FCST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 110011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO CWA FM THE WEST. WK SFC TROF WL BE SLIDING
ACRS AREA TONIGHT AND ENUF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXISTS TO WRING OUT
LGT -SHSN AT ANY POINT DRG THE NIGHT. UPDATED HRLY T/TD VALUES BUT
THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHGS TO FCST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 110011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO CWA FM THE WEST. WK SFC TROF WL BE SLIDING
ACRS AREA TONIGHT AND ENUF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXISTS TO WRING OUT
LGT -SHSN AT ANY POINT DRG THE NIGHT. UPDATED HRLY T/TD VALUES BUT
THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHGS TO FCST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE
A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE
A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 102312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE
A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 102152
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
452 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 102040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102030
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 101814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TNGT...BRINGING
HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION
WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND
INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO
FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH ONE LAST
RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 101814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TNGT...BRINGING
HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION
WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND
INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO
FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH ONE LAST
RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 101814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TNGT...BRINGING
HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION
WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND
INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO
FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH ONE LAST
RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 101615
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1115 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NOONTIME HIGH TIDE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS LOW END EVENT.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 101615
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1115 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NOONTIME HIGH TIDE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS LOW END EVENT.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 101615
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1115 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NOONTIME HIGH TIDE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS LOW END EVENT.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 101608
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1108 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 101533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE
LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TNGT...BRINGING
HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION
WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND
INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO
FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH ONE LAST
RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 101045 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
545 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KGYX 101045 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
545 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 101037
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
537 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
525 AM UPDATE: SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR
OVR PTNS OF THE FA...RESULTING IN AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURE. THIS IN TURN RESULTED IN A SIG CHG IN THE CURRENT
OVRNGT LOW AND THE HRLY UPWARD FCST CURVE OF TEMPS FOR LATER THIS
MORN. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM WX ELEMENTS REMAIN THE
SAME FROM THE PREV UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: WITH LEFT OVR LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK S/WV ENERGY
PROPAGATING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WE KEEP CLD AND SCT
FLURRIES MENTION THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SIG S/WV
ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT...BRINGING HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS
OF THE REGION WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL
AROUND AND INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST
OF TWO FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH THE SECOND
ARCTIC FRONT APCHG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VLY OF ERN QB ATTM. HI
TEMPS TDY WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON...WITH ONE LAST RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CLGS WITH BRIEF VFR INTERVALS CAN BE XPCTD FOR THE
TAF SITES TODAY INTO TNGT. MVFR VSBYS AND EVEN BRIEF IFR VSBYS CAN
BE XPCTD WITH SN SHWRS ATTMS...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES DURG THE
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE OPTD TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA HDLNS GIVEN THAT
4-5FT WVS ARE LONG PD SWELL. WITH LARGER WVS XPCTD BY LATE TNGT...
THE DAY CREW CAN ISSUE AN SCA IN A LATER FCST UPDATE. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 101037
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
537 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
525 AM UPDATE: SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR
OVR PTNS OF THE FA...RESULTING IN AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURE. THIS IN TURN RESULTED IN A SIG CHG IN THE CURRENT
OVRNGT LOW AND THE HRLY UPWARD FCST CURVE OF TEMPS FOR LATER THIS
MORN. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM WX ELEMENTS REMAIN THE
SAME FROM THE PREV UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: WITH LEFT OVR LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK S/WV ENERGY
PROPAGATING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WE KEEP CLD AND SCT
FLURRIES MENTION THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SIG S/WV
ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT...BRINGING HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS
OF THE REGION WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL
AROUND AND INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST
OF TWO FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH THE SECOND
ARCTIC FRONT APCHG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VLY OF ERN QB ATTM. HI
TEMPS TDY WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON...WITH ONE LAST RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CLGS WITH BRIEF VFR INTERVALS CAN BE XPCTD FOR THE
TAF SITES TODAY INTO TNGT. MVFR VSBYS AND EVEN BRIEF IFR VSBYS CAN
BE XPCTD WITH SN SHWRS ATTMS...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES DURG THE
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE OPTD TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA HDLNS GIVEN THAT
4-5FT WVS ARE LONG PD SWELL. WITH LARGER WVS XPCTD BY LATE TNGT...
THE DAY CREW CAN ISSUE AN SCA IN A LATER FCST UPDATE. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
427 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH LEFT OVR LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK S/WV ENERGY PROPAGATING WSW
TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WE KEEP CLD AND SCT FLURRIES MENTION THRU
THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...BRINGING HIGHER POPS OF
MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE WE WENT WITH
LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND
LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK THU...WITH THE SECOND ARCTIC FRONT APCHG THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VLY OF ERN QB ATTM. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH ONE LAST RELATIVELY MILD
NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CLGS WITH BRIEF VFR INTERVALS CAN BE XPCTD FOR THE
TAF SITES TODAY INTO TNGT. MVFR VSBYS AND EVEN BRIEF IFR VSBYS CAN
BE XPCTD WITH SN SHWRS ATTMS...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES DURG THE
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE OPTD TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA HDLNS GIVEN THAT
4-5FT WVS ARE LONG PD SWELL. WITH LARGER WVS XPCTD BY LATE TNGT...
THE DAY CREW CAN ISSUE AN SCA IN A LATER FCST UPDATE. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 100851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING
UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA ON THE WAA SIDE...AND
COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE LARGER FLOW...WX WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1019 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR UPDATES TO BUMP POPS UP THRU 06Z AS IR ENHANCEMENT IS
OCCURRING OVR FAR NE ZONES AS ONE LAST REMNANT S/WV SCOOTS THRU.
NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM AS HRLY T GRIDS STILL LOOK TO BE
REASONABLE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 100251
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPS
HAVE PLUMMETED SO MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
MANY OF THE CURRENT TEMPS WERE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DROP DOWN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH A FEW MORE
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH READINGS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT AS A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH
SHARPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE SNOWFALL THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IT WILL STILL BE A DRY SNOW
BUT NOT AS DRY AS MONDAYS SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A 35 DEGREE READING ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FIRMLY UNDER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE
HORIZON... BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT INTERESTING THOUGH AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ITS LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MINUS TEN TO MINUS TWENTY DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING AS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
UP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN`T GONE ANYWHERE SO
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS AT TAF SITES IN THE LONG
TERM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT LARGE WAVES IN LONG PERIOD
SWELL ARE STILL A THREAT. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN OUT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES. THE BAYS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WILL THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
STATEMENT GOES THROUGH ONLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER A SMALL CRAFT OR GALE WARNING
ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 35-40KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SPLASH-OVER
ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE BEACHES OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IN
PORTLAND WILL OCCUR AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 100251
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPS
HAVE PLUMMETED SO MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
MANY OF THE CURRENT TEMPS WERE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DROP DOWN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH A FEW MORE
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH READINGS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT AS A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH
SHARPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE SNOWFALL THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IT WILL STILL BE A DRY SNOW
BUT NOT AS DRY AS MONDAYS SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A 35 DEGREE READING ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FIRMLY UNDER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE
HORIZON... BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT INTERESTING THOUGH AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ITS LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MINUS TEN TO MINUS TWENTY DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING AS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
UP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN`T GONE ANYWHERE SO
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS AT TAF SITES IN THE LONG
TERM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT LARGE WAVES IN LONG PERIOD
SWELL ARE STILL A THREAT. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN OUT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES. THE BAYS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WILL THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
STATEMENT GOES THROUGH ONLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER A SMALL CRAFT OR GALE WARNING
ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 35-40KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SPLASH-OVER
ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE BEACHES OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IN
PORTLAND WILL OCCUR AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 100251
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPS
HAVE PLUMMETED SO MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
MANY OF THE CURRENT TEMPS WERE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DROP DOWN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH A FEW MORE
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH READINGS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT AS A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH
SHARPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE SNOWFALL THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IT WILL STILL BE A DRY SNOW
BUT NOT AS DRY AS MONDAYS SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A 35 DEGREE READING ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FIRMLY UNDER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE
HORIZON... BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT INTERESTING THOUGH AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ITS LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MINUS TEN TO MINUS TWENTY DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING AS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
UP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN`T GONE ANYWHERE SO
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS AT TAF SITES IN THE LONG
TERM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT LARGE WAVES IN LONG PERIOD
SWELL ARE STILL A THREAT. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN OUT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES. THE BAYS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WILL THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
STATEMENT GOES THROUGH ONLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER A SMALL CRAFT OR GALE WARNING
ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 35-40KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SPLASH-OVER
ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE BEACHES OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IN
PORTLAND WILL OCCUR AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 100016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
716 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
LGT SNOW CONTS TO WIND DOWN AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST INTO CANADA.
EXPECT JUST VRY LGT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO BE GENERATED WITH ACCUMS
HVG A HARD TIME APPCHG THE INCH MARK. JUST QUICK UPDATE TO DROP
FINAL ADVISORIES AND UPDATE T/TD HRLY GRIDS WHICH WERE ON TRACK.
NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
716 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
LGT SNOW CONTS TO WIND DOWN AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST INTO CANADA.
EXPECT JUST VRY LGT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO BE GENERATED WITH ACCUMS
HVG A HARD TIME APPCHG THE INCH MARK. JUST QUICK UPDATE TO DROP
FINAL ADVISORIES AND UPDATE T/TD HRLY GRIDS WHICH WERE ON TRACK.
NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
716 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
LGT SNOW CONTS TO WIND DOWN AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST INTO CANADA.
EXPECT JUST VRY LGT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO BE GENERATED WITH ACCUMS
HVG A HARD TIME APPCHG THE INCH MARK. JUST QUICK UPDATE TO DROP
FINAL ADVISORIES AND UPDATE T/TD HRLY GRIDS WHICH WERE ON TRACK.
NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 092132
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
432 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING W/AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE AT MVFR THIS
EVENING W/IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING, BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR LATER IN THE DAY LOOKS TO BE HIGH PROBABILITY W/SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW. VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB TO START OUT
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DROPPING TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON W/THE
PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 092132
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
432 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING W/AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE AT MVFR THIS
EVENING W/IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING, BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR LATER IN THE DAY LOOKS TO BE HIGH PROBABILITY W/SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW. VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB TO START OUT
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DROPPING TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON W/THE
PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 092132
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
432 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING W/AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE AT MVFR THIS
EVENING W/IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING, BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR LATER IN THE DAY LOOKS TO BE HIGH PROBABILITY W/SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW. VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB TO START OUT
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DROPPING TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON W/THE
PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 092017
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FLURRIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE
AREA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD
PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DROP DOWN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH A FEW MORE RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH READINGS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT AS A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH
SHARPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE SNOWFALL THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IT WILL STILL BE A DRY SNOW
BUT NOT AS DRY AS MONDAYS SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A 35 DEGREE READING ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FIRMLY UNDER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE
HORIZON... BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT INTERESTING THOUGH AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ITS LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MINUS TEN TO MINUS TWENTY DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING AS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
UP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN`T GONE ANYWHERE SO
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS AT TAF SITES IN THE LONG
TERM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT LARGE WAVES IN LONG PERIOD
SWELL ARE STILL A THREAT. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN OUT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES. THE BAYS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WILL THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
STATEMENT GOES THROUGH ONLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER A SMALL CRAFT OR GALE WARNING
ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 35-40KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SPLASH-OVER
ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE BEACHES OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IN
PORTLAND WILL OCCUR AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...POHL




000
FXUS61 KCAR 091908
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
208 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
207 PM...DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AS STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED W/JUST SOME FLURRIES
BEING REPORTED. ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST-
EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT
1415Z. BROAD REGION OF SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER
NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED
BY DEEP SATURATION IN DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z
CARIBOU SOUNDING.

MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. BACK EDGE OF ANY
REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY UNDER
OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...AND MID
20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS DOWN BELOW 20 KTS BUT SEAS STILL UP ABOVE 6 FT
ESPECIALLY OVER ANZ050(44027). DECIDED TO GO W/A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVES W/WINDS & SEAS BELOW SCA INTO WED.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 091908
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
208 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
207 PM...DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AS STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED W/JUST SOME FLURRIES
BEING REPORTED. ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST-
EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT
1415Z. BROAD REGION OF SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER
NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED
BY DEEP SATURATION IN DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z
CARIBOU SOUNDING.

MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. BACK EDGE OF ANY
REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY UNDER
OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...AND MID
20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS DOWN BELOW 20 KTS BUT SEAS STILL UP ABOVE 6 FT
ESPECIALLY OVER ANZ050(44027). DECIDED TO GO W/A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVES W/WINDS & SEAS BELOW SCA INTO WED.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 091908
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
208 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
207 PM...DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AS STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED W/JUST SOME FLURRIES
BEING REPORTED. ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST-
EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT
1415Z. BROAD REGION OF SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER
NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED
BY DEEP SATURATION IN DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z
CARIBOU SOUNDING.

MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. BACK EDGE OF ANY
REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY UNDER
OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...AND MID
20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS DOWN BELOW 20 KTS BUT SEAS STILL UP ABOVE 6 FT
ESPECIALLY OVER ANZ050(44027). DECIDED TO GO W/A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVES W/WINDS & SEAS BELOW SCA INTO WED.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 091820
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
117 PM...TRANSITIONED SCA TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEE MARINE
SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST-
EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT
1415Z. BROAD REGION OF SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER
NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED
BY DEEP SATURATION IN DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z
CARIBOU SOUNDING.

MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ATTM...FOR EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ACROSS NRN AREAS AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1"
OR SO FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR OBSERVED SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED THRU 815AM. BACK EDGE OF
ANY REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14Z...WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY...AND MID 20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS DOWN BELOW 20 KTS BUT SEAS STILL UP ABOVE 6 FT
ESPECIALLY OVER ANZ050(44027). DECIDED TO GO W/A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVES W/WINDS & SEAS BELOW SCA INTO WED.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE....SMALL SCARFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 091820
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
117 PM...TRANSITIONED SCA TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEE MARINE
SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST-
EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT
1415Z. BROAD REGION OF SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER
NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED
BY DEEP SATURATION IN DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z
CARIBOU SOUNDING.

MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ATTM...FOR EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ACROSS NRN AREAS AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1"
OR SO FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR OBSERVED SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED THRU 815AM. BACK EDGE OF
ANY REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14Z...WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY...AND MID 20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS DOWN BELOW 20 KTS BUT SEAS STILL UP ABOVE 6 FT
ESPECIALLY OVER ANZ050(44027). DECIDED TO GO W/A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVES W/WINDS & SEAS BELOW SCA INTO WED.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE....SMALL SCARFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 091820
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
117 PM...TRANSITIONED SCA TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEE MARINE
SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST-
EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT
1415Z. BROAD REGION OF SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER
NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED
BY DEEP SATURATION IN DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z
CARIBOU SOUNDING.

MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ATTM...FOR EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ACROSS NRN AREAS AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1"
OR SO FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR OBSERVED SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED THRU 815AM. BACK EDGE OF
ANY REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14Z...WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY...AND MID 20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS DOWN BELOW 20 KTS BUT SEAS STILL UP ABOVE 6 FT
ESPECIALLY OVER ANZ050(44027). DECIDED TO GO W/A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVES W/WINDS & SEAS BELOW SCA INTO WED.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE....SMALL SCARFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 091705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1205 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1202PM...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...AS TIDE
GAUGES SHOW RECEDING WATER LEVELS FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE AND LOW-
LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY OFFSHORE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST-
EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT
1415Z. BROAD REGION OF SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER
NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED
BY DEEP SATURATION IN DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z
CARIBOU SOUNDING.

MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ATTM...FOR EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ACROSS NRN AREAS AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1"
OR SO FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR OBSERVED SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED THRU 815AM. BACK EDGE OF
ANY REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14Z...WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY...AND MID 20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA HDLNS FOR OUR WATERS INTO
THIS MORN. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY AFTN...THE DAY SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 AND
RE-ISSUE FOR JUST HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR OUR OUTER MZS LATER TDY. ANY
LGT FZY SPY SHOULD END THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE
NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WFO BTV
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 091554
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1054 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1053AM...QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
ON TIME FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND COASTAL WASHINGTON. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST-
EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT
1415Z. BROAD REGION OF SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER
NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED
BY DEEP SATURATION IN DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z
CARIBOU SOUNDING.

MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ATTM...FOR EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ACROSS NRN AREAS AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1"
OR SO FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR OBSERVED SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED THRU 815AM. BACK EDGE OF
ANY REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14Z...WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY...AND MID 20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA HDLNS FOR OUR WATERS INTO
THIS MORN. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY AFTN...THE DAY SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 AND
RE-ISSUE FOR JUST HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR OUR OUTER MZS LATER TDY. ANY
LGT FZY SPY SHOULD END THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE
NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WFO BTV
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 091506 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1006 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1010 AM...
AREA OF LIGHT TO SNOW NOW MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE IS BRINGING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR A MILE OR TWO. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN NH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
WARMING WILL OCCUR AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST
TROUGH ARE THE MAIN REASONS PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH UP TO
AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.



630 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST METARS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 091437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST-EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT 1415Z. BROAD REGION OF
SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED BY DEEP SATURATION IN
DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z CARIBOU SOUNDING.

MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ATTM...FOR EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ACROSS NRN AREAS AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1"
OR SO FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR OBSERVED SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED THRU 815AM. BACK EDGE OF
ANY REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14Z...WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY...AND MID 20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA HDLNS FOR OUR WATERS INTO
THIS MORN. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY AFTN...THE DAY SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 AND
RE-ISSUE FOR JUST HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR OUR OUTER MZS LATER TDY. ANY
LGT FZY SPY SHOULD END THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE
NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WFO BTV
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 091131
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
631 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST METARS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 091131 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
631 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST METARS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 091131 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
631 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST METARS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 091131 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
631 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST METARS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 091041
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
541 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530 AM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF
BANDING OVR NE PTNS OF THE FA THIS HR...AND LIKELY WE ARE NEAR
HE HEIGHT OF THIS EVENT OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH LATEST HRRR
HRLY SIM RADAR OUTPUT SHOWING A GRADUAL DECLINE IN REF OVR THIS
PTN OF THE FA. FURTHER S...DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA HAVE BEEN IN A
RELATIVE BREAK IN REF...WITH NE REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING A WEAKER
BAND OF SN OVR SW ME LIFTING INTO SRN PTNS OF THE FA...SO WE WILL
KEEP THE ADV GOING HERE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO
THE LATE MORN WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 AM.

ORGNL DISC: KEPT WNTR WX ADV HDLNS THE SAME FROM LAST UPDATE.
RADAR CONTS TO SHOW SNOW ROTATING SLOWLY SE TO NW INTO NRN
ME...WITH THE NW LAST TO GET UNDER THE SN CANOPY. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOW THE BEST LIFT FOR THE HIGHEST SN RATES (UP TO 0.5 TO
1 INCH PER HR) BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z...BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORN...RESULTING IN LESSER SN RATES.
OTHERWISE...THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY SN WILL LIFT NWRD FROM
DOWNEAST AREAS BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORN INTO MIDDAY
HRS...REACHING THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY EVE. GREATEST SNFL TOTALS
STILL LOOK TO BE OVR THE FAR SE WITH FCST TOTAL QPF AOA 0.60
INCHES...WHERE A FEW LCTNS IN SE WASHINGTON COUNTY COULD GET UP TO
9 INCHES OR SO. WITH LESSER FCST QPF XPCTD TO THE NW...SN TOTALS
WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY LESS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FEW LCTNS IN
THE NW AND XTRM NE GETTING PERHAPS AS LITTLE AS 3 INCHES.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA HDLNS FOR OUR WATERS INTO
THIS MORN. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY AFTN...THE DAY SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 AND
RE-ISSUE FOR JUST HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR OUR OUTER MZS LATER TDY. ANY
LGT FZY SPY SHOULD END THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE
NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORN. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 11 AM THIS MORN. TIDES ARE RUNNING NEAR
ASTRONOMICAL MAXIMUM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURGE AND WAVES OF 6 TO
10 FT...SOME SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 090833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
     009-013-014-020>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 090833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
     009-013-014-020>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 090833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
     009-013-014-020>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 090833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
     009-013-014-020>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 090833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
     009-013-014-020>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 090822
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEPT WNTR WX ADV HDLNS THE SAME FROM LAST UPDATE. RADAR CONTS TO
SHOW SNOW ROTATING SLOWLY SE TO NW INTO NRN ME...WITH THE NW LAST
TO GET UNDER THE SN CANOPY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE BEST LIFT
FOR THE HIGHEST SN RATES (UP TO 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HR) BETWEEN NOW
AND 12Z...BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORN...RESULTING IN LESSER SN RATES. OTHERWISE...THE BACK EDGE OF
STEADY SN WILL LIFT NWRD FROM DOWNEAST AREAS BEGINNING IN THE LATE
MORN INTO MIDDAY HRS...REACHING THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY EVE.
GREATEST SNFL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE OVR THE FAR SE WITH FCST
TOTAL QPF AOA 0.60 INCHES...WHERE A FEW LCTNS IN SE WASHINGTON
COUNTY COULD GET UP TO 9 INCHES OR SO. WITH LESSER FCST QPF XPCTD
TO THE NW...SN TOTALS WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY LESS IN THIS
DIRECTION WITH A FEW LCTNS IN THE NW AND XTRM NE GETTING
PERHAPS AS LITTLE AS 3 INCHES.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA HDLNS FOR OUR WATERS INTO
THIS MORN. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY AFTN...THE DAY SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 AND
RE-ISSUE FOR JUST HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR OUR OUTER MZS LATER TDY. ANY
LGT FZY SPY SHOULD END THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE
NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORN. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 11 AM THIS MORN. TIDES ARE RUNNING NEAR
ASTRONOMICAL MAXIMUM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURGE AND WAVES OF 6 TO
10 FT...SOME SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 090541
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1241 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS UPDATE INCLUDE MINOR CHGS TO
6 HRLY SNFL AND STM TOTAL SNFL AND TO PROVIDE BETTER ENDING TMG OF
WNTR WX ADVS FROM S TO N...RANGING FROM 11 AM ALG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...TO 3 PM FOR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AND THE ORGNL 7 PM ENDING
FOR NRN ZONES...MORE IN LN WHEN POPS DROP TO CHC WHEN STEADY SN
TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS...CLD CVR AND HRLY/LOW
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT. WITH REGARD TO LOW
TEMPS...WE RAISED THEM A FEW DEG...THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY
FALL A FEW DEG DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING FROM SNFL.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS TERM. THE MAIN THING IN
QUESTION IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP.

LATEST 20Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD INTENSE SFC LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA
BOMBING OUT AND FILLING. REGIONAL RADAR, INCLUDING THE LATEST MRMS
SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM WERE DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT PER THE LATEST
RADAR ALONG W/THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED
80-100 KT JET DIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER TROF TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS E. THE
TIMING FOR SNOW FURTHER N HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AS WELL AS CUTTING
BACK ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. THE GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INTENSE LOW PULLS AWAY.
LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A DEVELOPING UPPER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING W/SOME
BRIEF HEAVY BANDS. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING
THE MT. KATAHDIN REGIONAL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FORECAST
TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS(16-19:1) WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLUFFY SNOW. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL FOR A
TIME. OVERALL ATTM, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST TOTALS(4-8 INCHES) ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS
PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN. FURTHER N ACROSS
HOULTON ON UP THROUGH CARIBOU INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.

SNOW WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT A NNE WIND ACROSS THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY HAS HISTORY OF LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE AND FORECAST QPF OF
AROUND 0.25", DECIDED TO ADD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY W/SNOW FORECAST OF UP TO
4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL W/20S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MOISTURE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. ONE LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE SMALL LOW ON THURSDAY MAY
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY GIVING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SMALL LOW WHISKING OUT
TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST BREEZE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CURRENTLY DIFFER WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW IN MONDAY AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING IT IN LATE TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH HUL/PQI/CAR BECOMING MVFR
AFTER 03Z WITH FVE HOLDING ONTO VFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 08Z. IFR
SNOW EXPECTED AT HUL AT 03Z, PQI AT 05Z, CAR AT 06Z AND FVE AT
09Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT CAR, PQI AND HUL BY 22Z TUE.

SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR IN SN AND BLSN
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARIABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COAST IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW IF IT
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HV ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR INTRACOASTAL
WATERS AT 03Z AND EXTENDED FOR COASTAL WATERS THRU 05Z AS WINDS
RMN BTWN 35-40KTS. HV ISSUED SCA FOR INTRACOASTAL WATERS THRU 18Z
TUESDAY AND AS GALE WARNING EXPIRES FOR RMNG ZONES WL NEED TO
ISSUE SCA THRU THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP BACK TO 8-10 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SWELL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY W/PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LATE THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON FRIDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1-1.5 FT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS AROUND 11
PM AND AROUND 11 AM ON TUESDAY. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SURGE AND THE WAVES OF 10-13 FT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MORE SO ON TUESDAY.
COLLABORATED W/GYX AND DECIDED TO GO W/A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-
     003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 090541
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1241 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS UPDATE INCLUDE MINOR CHGS TO
6 HRLY SNFL AND STM TOTAL SNFL AND TO PROVIDE BETTER ENDING TMG OF
WNTR WX ADVS FROM S TO N...RANGING FROM 11 AM ALG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...TO 3 PM FOR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AND THE ORGNL 7 PM ENDING
FOR NRN ZONES...MORE IN LN WHEN POPS DROP TO CHC WHEN STEADY SN
TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS...CLD CVR AND HRLY/LOW
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT. WITH REGARD TO LOW
TEMPS...WE RAISED THEM A FEW DEG...THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY
FALL A FEW DEG DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING FROM SNFL.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS TERM. THE MAIN THING IN
QUESTION IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP.

LATEST 20Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD INTENSE SFC LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA
BOMBING OUT AND FILLING. REGIONAL RADAR, INCLUDING THE LATEST MRMS
SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM WERE DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT PER THE LATEST
RADAR ALONG W/THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED
80-100 KT JET DIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER TROF TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS E. THE
TIMING FOR SNOW FURTHER N HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AS WELL AS CUTTING
BACK ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. THE GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INTENSE LOW PULLS AWAY.
LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A DEVELOPING UPPER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING W/SOME
BRIEF HEAVY BANDS. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING
THE MT. KATAHDIN REGIONAL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FORECAST
TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS(16-19:1) WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLUFFY SNOW. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL FOR A
TIME. OVERALL ATTM, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST TOTALS(4-8 INCHES) ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS
PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN. FURTHER N ACROSS
HOULTON ON UP THROUGH CARIBOU INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.

SNOW WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT A NNE WIND ACROSS THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY HAS HISTORY OF LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE AND FORECAST QPF OF
AROUND 0.25", DECIDED TO ADD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY W/SNOW FORECAST OF UP TO
4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL W/20S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MOISTURE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. ONE LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE SMALL LOW ON THURSDAY MAY
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY GIVING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SMALL LOW WHISKING OUT
TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST BREEZE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CURRENTLY DIFFER WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW IN MONDAY AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING IT IN LATE TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH HUL/PQI/CAR BECOMING MVFR
AFTER 03Z WITH FVE HOLDING ONTO VFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 08Z. IFR
SNOW EXPECTED AT HUL AT 03Z, PQI AT 05Z, CAR AT 06Z AND FVE AT
09Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT CAR, PQI AND HUL BY 22Z TUE.

SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR IN SN AND BLSN
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARIABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COAST IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW IF IT
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HV ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR INTRACOASTAL
WATERS AT 03Z AND EXTENDED FOR COASTAL WATERS THRU 05Z AS WINDS
RMN BTWN 35-40KTS. HV ISSUED SCA FOR INTRACOASTAL WATERS THRU 18Z
TUESDAY AND AS GALE WARNING EXPIRES FOR RMNG ZONES WL NEED TO
ISSUE SCA THRU THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP BACK TO 8-10 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SWELL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY W/PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LATE THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON FRIDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1-1.5 FT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS AROUND 11
PM AND AROUND 11 AM ON TUESDAY. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SURGE AND THE WAVES OF 10-13 FT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MORE SO ON TUESDAY.
COLLABORATED W/GYX AND DECIDED TO GO W/A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-
     003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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