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000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIP UP BY 3 HRS PER THE
LATEST RADAR. THE NAM12 WAS DOING QUITE WELL W/THE TIME ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIP CHANCES NEEDED TO RAISED SOME. SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS
THE ST. VALLEY INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. STATED W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LESS THAN AN INCH ATTM. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIP UP BY 3 HRS PER THE
LATEST RADAR. THE NAM12 WAS DOING QUITE WELL W/THE TIME ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIP CHANCES NEEDED TO RAISED SOME. SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS
THE ST. VALLEY INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. STATED W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LESS THAN AN INCH ATTM. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIP UP BY 3 HRS PER THE
LATEST RADAR. THE NAM12 WAS DOING QUITE WELL W/THE TIME ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIP CHANCES NEEDED TO RAISED SOME. SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS
THE ST. VALLEY INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. STATED W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LESS THAN AN INCH ATTM. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIP UP BY 3 HRS PER THE
LATEST RADAR. THE NAM12 WAS DOING QUITE WELL W/THE TIME ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIP CHANCES NEEDED TO RAISED SOME. SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS
THE ST. VALLEY INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. STATED W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LESS THAN AN INCH ATTM. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 190424
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1224 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...UPDATED POPS AND P-TYPE OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TREND. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS AND SUPREMELY DRY LOW TO MID-LVLS NOTED IN
00Z GYX AND ALY RAOBS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS JUST A BIT...BUT ALSO
REMOVED ANY PL/FZRA. GIVEN THE DRY LYR ALOFT...WET BULB TEMPS
SUGGEST EITHER SN OR RA BASED ON BL TEMPS. SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHC
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PL RIGHT AT THE START...BUT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED. QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE AT BEST A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
NRN ZONES...SO SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS COULD OCCUR THERE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE COAST
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
HIGHER CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FETCH OF POTENTIAL
MOIST INFLOW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIR...COOL...AND WINDY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SAT TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 190424
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1224 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...UPDATED POPS AND P-TYPE OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TREND. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS AND SUPREMELY DRY LOW TO MID-LVLS NOTED IN
00Z GYX AND ALY RAOBS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS JUST A BIT...BUT ALSO
REMOVED ANY PL/FZRA. GIVEN THE DRY LYR ALOFT...WET BULB TEMPS
SUGGEST EITHER SN OR RA BASED ON BL TEMPS. SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHC
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PL RIGHT AT THE START...BUT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED. QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE AT BEST A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
NRN ZONES...SO SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS COULD OCCUR THERE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE COAST
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
HIGHER CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FETCH OF POTENTIAL
MOIST INFLOW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIR...COOL...AND WINDY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SAT TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 190424
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1224 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...UPDATED POPS AND P-TYPE OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TREND. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS AND SUPREMELY DRY LOW TO MID-LVLS NOTED IN
00Z GYX AND ALY RAOBS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS JUST A BIT...BUT ALSO
REMOVED ANY PL/FZRA. GIVEN THE DRY LYR ALOFT...WET BULB TEMPS
SUGGEST EITHER SN OR RA BASED ON BL TEMPS. SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHC
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PL RIGHT AT THE START...BUT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED. QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE AT BEST A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
NRN ZONES...SO SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS COULD OCCUR THERE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE COAST
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
HIGHER CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FETCH OF POTENTIAL
MOIST INFLOW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIR...COOL...AND WINDY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SAT TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 190424
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1224 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...UPDATED POPS AND P-TYPE OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TREND. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS AND SUPREMELY DRY LOW TO MID-LVLS NOTED IN
00Z GYX AND ALY RAOBS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS JUST A BIT...BUT ALSO
REMOVED ANY PL/FZRA. GIVEN THE DRY LYR ALOFT...WET BULB TEMPS
SUGGEST EITHER SN OR RA BASED ON BL TEMPS. SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHC
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PL RIGHT AT THE START...BUT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED. QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE AT BEST A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
NRN ZONES...SO SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS COULD OCCUR THERE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE COAST
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
HIGHER CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FETCH OF POTENTIAL
MOIST INFLOW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIR...COOL...AND WINDY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SAT TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190139
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
939 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
939 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST.
DID INCREASE THE POPS JUST A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT. ALSO INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE STRATUS HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190139
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
939 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
939 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST.
DID INCREASE THE POPS JUST A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW QPF EVENT. ALSO INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE STRATUS HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 182230
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TON INTO SAT MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
WOULD INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS FROM HOULTON NORTH WITH A MIX
TO THE SOUTH. THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH ANY
SNOWFALL AN INCH OR LESS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...KHW





000
FXUS61 KCAR 182230
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TON INTO SAT MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
WOULD INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS FROM HOULTON NORTH WITH A MIX
TO THE SOUTH. THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH ANY
SNOWFALL AN INCH OR LESS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...KHW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 182013
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
413 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING AND
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM.  THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO...
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR... &&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KCAR 182013
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
413 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING AND
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM.  THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO...
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR... &&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KCAR 182013
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
413 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING AND
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM.  THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO...
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR... &&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KCAR 182013
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
413 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING AND
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM.  THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO...
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TROF OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH LATE TNGT AND CROSS THE
AREA BY ERLY SAT AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWERING CLDNS AND LGT PRECIP
TO LOWER CONDS FROM VFR TO PSBL MVFR LATE TNGT INTO SAT AM. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR PER VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE TIMING/DURATION.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF ICE REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER BTWN GRAND ISLE
AND HAMLIN - ALTERNATING FROM ICE TO OPEN AREAS. LATEST RPTS
INDICATE NO PROBS ATTM... THE GAGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL
REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABV 16 FT (MAJOR FLOOD CAT) BUT
CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG RPT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. HYDRO
FP IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO SORT THIS OUT. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO
ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY
MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM
POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR... &&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 181853
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE COAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HIGHER
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FETCH OF POTENTIAL
MOIST INFLOW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIR...COOL...AND WINDY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SAT TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
SATURDAY MAY APPROACH METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING. PLEASE CONSULT
THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER










000
FXUS61 KCAR 181710
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS W/ WEAK WAA ASSOCIATED W/ AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT. HIGH CLDS THICK ENUF ACROSS THE W AND N SO STILL SOME
QUESTION THAT FCST HIGHS ACROSS THESE AREAS CAN BE REACHED. AT
BEST WILL ONLY FALL A A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT SO WILL HOLD THE
COURSE FOR NOW. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE DETAILED
BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181710
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS W/ WEAK WAA ASSOCIATED W/ AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT. HIGH CLDS THICK ENUF ACROSS THE W AND N SO STILL SOME
QUESTION THAT FCST HIGHS ACROSS THESE AREAS CAN BE REACHED. AT
BEST WILL ONLY FALL A A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT SO WILL HOLD THE
COURSE FOR NOW. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE DETAILED
BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181710
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS W/ WEAK WAA ASSOCIATED W/ AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT. HIGH CLDS THICK ENUF ACROSS THE W AND N SO STILL SOME
QUESTION THAT FCST HIGHS ACROSS THESE AREAS CAN BE REACHED. AT
BEST WILL ONLY FALL A A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT SO WILL HOLD THE
COURSE FOR NOW. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE DETAILED
BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181710
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS W/ WEAK WAA ASSOCIATED W/ AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT. HIGH CLDS THICK ENUF ACROSS THE W AND N SO STILL SOME
QUESTION THAT FCST HIGHS ACROSS THESE AREAS CAN BE REACHED. AT
BEST WILL ONLY FALL A A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT SO WILL HOLD THE
COURSE FOR NOW. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE DETAILED
BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181628
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1228 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1225 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE PRESENT MESONET.

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 181628
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1228 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1225 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE PRESENT MESONET.

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181327
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
927 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS... WEAK WAA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. MAIN WX FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE
TEMPS AND SKY COVER. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE
DETAILED BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181327
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
927 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME MAINLY
HIGH CLDS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN AREAS... WEAK WAA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TNGT
AND SAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. MAIN WX FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE
TEMPS AND SKY COVER. A FEW HYDRO ISSUES PERSIST AND THESE ARE
DETAILED BLO... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAY CREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JET LET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: APPEARS THERE IS STILL SOME ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM GRAND
ISLE TO HAMLIN THO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT JAMMING
AND PROBLEMS ATTM.  WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL PROBS...

PREV DISC: THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE
W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE
EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS
ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...KHW/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 181103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
703 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY AND TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS AND WHAT SATELLITE WAS INDICATING. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PULL OUT LATER THIS MORNING W/WEAK WAA ALOFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND AROOSTOOK
EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER LEVELS ARE
RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
703 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY AND TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE
LATEST CONDITIONS AND WHAT SATELLITE WAS INDICATING. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PULL OUT LATER THIS MORNING W/WEAK WAA ALOFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND AROOSTOOK
EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER LEVELS ARE
RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KGYX 181038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC THIS MORNING. CT RIVER WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 181038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC THIS MORNING. CT RIVER WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 180950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
545 AM UPDATE: COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
AND AROOSTOOK EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER
LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 180950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
545 AM UPDATE: COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
AND AROOSTOOK EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER
LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 180950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
545 AM UPDATE: COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
AND AROOSTOOK EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER
LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 180950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
545 AM UPDATE: COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
AND AROOSTOOK EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER
LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST
READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 180751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN
BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE
WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP
AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING
UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER
10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS.
MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR
THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET
OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A
10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY.  THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK.  THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER
QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH
RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT
BEST INTO TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ATTM THROUGH 8 AM WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FOR THE ST. JOHN RIVER. DOWN INTO SW PENOBSCOT COUNTY
NEAR DEXTER, CONCERNS EXIST FOR MORE PROBLEMS W/MELTING TODAY W/AREAL
FLOOD WARNING IN PLACE. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD
STAGE W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.12 FT AND STILL RISING. THE
MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT
INTO THE EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK
RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS REPORTEDLY
IMPROVING. WE WILL ASSESS THE FLOOD WATCH AND AREAL FLOOD WARNING
LATER ON THIS MORNING W/THE 7 AM UPDATE.

NOW FOR THE ST. JOHN RIVER: THE ICE JAM IN ST. FRANCIS BROKE
OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED DOWN THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN BUREN. WATER
LEVELS DROPPED DRAMATICALLY FROM ST. FRANCIS DOWN TO FORT KENT. WE
ARE TALKING 2-4 FT WITHIN ONE HOURS TIME. THIS IS A GOOD EXAMPLE
HOW WATER LEVELS REACT W/ICE JAMS. LATEST REPORTS FROM LAW
ENFORCEMENT, EMA AND DOT ARE THAT THE ICE IS MOVING WELL, BUT IN
TACT. THE THICKNESS WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 18-24". THE AREAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE ST. FRANCIS REGION WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-
     011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT










000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KCAR 180447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. HRLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS AS THEY
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: ICE JAM HAS RELEASED IN ST. FRANCIS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER
PER THE EMA AND WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT
REGION. THE MDOT IS HEADING OUT TO ASSESS THINGS. THE ICE WAS
HEADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE FORT KENT REGION W/WATERS LEVELS
RISING AS OF 12AM(22.0 FT) WHICH IS ACTION STAGE. THE AREAL FLW
WILL REMAIN UP IN THIS REGION. WILL MONITOR THE FORT KENT REGION
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. ICE HAD BROKEN UP IN VAN BUREN W/ICE
MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND RIVER NOW OPEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR ALL BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED
TO CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-
     011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 180447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. HRLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS AS THEY
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: ICE JAM HAS RELEASED IN ST. FRANCIS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER
PER THE EMA AND WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT
REGION. THE MDOT IS HEADING OUT TO ASSESS THINGS. THE ICE WAS
HEADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE FORT KENT REGION W/WATERS LEVELS
RISING AS OF 12AM(22.0 FT) WHICH IS ACTION STAGE. THE AREAL FLW
WILL REMAIN UP IN THIS REGION. WILL MONITOR THE FORT KENT REGION
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. ICE HAD BROKEN UP IN VAN BUREN W/ICE
MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND RIVER NOW OPEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR ALL BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED
TO CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-
     011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 180447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. HRLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS AS THEY
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: ICE JAM HAS RELEASED IN ST. FRANCIS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER
PER THE EMA AND WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT
REGION. THE MDOT IS HEADING OUT TO ASSESS THINGS. THE ICE WAS
HEADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE FORT KENT REGION W/WATERS LEVELS
RISING AS OF 12AM(22.0 FT) WHICH IS ACTION STAGE. THE AREAL FLW
WILL REMAIN UP IN THIS REGION. WILL MONITOR THE FORT KENT REGION
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. ICE HAD BROKEN UP IN VAN BUREN W/ICE
MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND RIVER NOW OPEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR ALL BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED
TO CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-
     011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 180447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. HRLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS AS THEY
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: ICE JAM HAS RELEASED IN ST. FRANCIS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER
PER THE EMA AND WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT
REGION. THE MDOT IS HEADING OUT TO ASSESS THINGS. THE ICE WAS
HEADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE FORT KENT REGION W/WATERS LEVELS
RISING AS OF 12AM(22.0 FT) WHICH IS ACTION STAGE. THE AREAL FLW
WILL REMAIN UP IN THIS REGION. WILL MONITOR THE FORT KENT REGION
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. ICE HAD BROKEN UP IN VAN BUREN W/ICE
MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND RIVER NOW OPEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR ALL BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED
TO CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-
     011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KGYX 180430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1230 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM...HAVE BACKED OFF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COMING IN
BEFORE DAWN...AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF THEM OFFSHORE ATTM...AND
COLUMN REMAINS VERY DRY. OTHERWISE JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 180430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1230 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM...HAVE BACKED OFF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COMING IN
BEFORE DAWN...AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF THEM OFFSHORE ATTM...AND
COLUMN REMAINS VERY DRY. OTHERWISE JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 180232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1032 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WRNG FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE
STILLWATER RIVER IN ORONO. CALLS TO THE U MAINE CAMPUS POLICE AT
ORONO AND ONE OF THE RESIDENTS WHO EARLIER REPORTED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING YIELDED REPORTS OF JUST MINOR NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING ATTM.

PENOBSCOT SO AND AROOSTOOK EMA CONFIRM CONTG CONCERNS AT DEXTER
(CULVERT FLOODING) IN SRN PENOBSCOT CNTY AND THE ST FRANCIS AREA
(ICE JAM) IN NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY RESPECTIVELY SO WILL CONT BOTH
THESE WRNGS ATTM.

WILL CONT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AS WELL...

PREV DISC:  THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING
FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO
CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...KHW/CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 180232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1032 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WRNG FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE
STILLWATER RIVER IN ORONO. CALLS TO THE U MAINE CAMPUS POLICE AT
ORONO AND ONE OF THE RESIDENTS WHO EARLIER REPORTED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING YIELDED REPORTS OF JUST MINOR NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING ATTM.

PENOBSCOT SO AND AROOSTOOK EMA CONFIRM CONTG CONCERNS AT DEXTER
(CULVERT FLOODING) IN SRN PENOBSCOT CNTY AND THE ST FRANCIS AREA
(ICE JAM) IN NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY RESPECTIVELY SO WILL CONT BOTH
THESE WRNGS ATTM.

WILL CONT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AS WELL...

PREV DISC:  THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING
FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO
CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...KHW/CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 180232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1032 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WRNG FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE
STILLWATER RIVER IN ORONO. CALLS TO THE U MAINE CAMPUS POLICE AT
ORONO AND ONE OF THE RESIDENTS WHO EARLIER REPORTED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING YIELDED REPORTS OF JUST MINOR NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING ATTM.

PENOBSCOT SO AND AROOSTOOK EMA CONFIRM CONTG CONCERNS AT DEXTER
(CULVERT FLOODING) IN SRN PENOBSCOT CNTY AND THE ST FRANCIS AREA
(ICE JAM) IN NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY RESPECTIVELY SO WILL CONT BOTH
THESE WRNGS ATTM.

WILL CONT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AS WELL...

PREV DISC:  THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING
FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO
CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...KHW/CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 180232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1032 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WRNG FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE
STILLWATER RIVER IN ORONO. CALLS TO THE U MAINE CAMPUS POLICE AT
ORONO AND ONE OF THE RESIDENTS WHO EARLIER REPORTED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING YIELDED REPORTS OF JUST MINOR NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING ATTM.

PENOBSCOT SO AND AROOSTOOK EMA CONFIRM CONTG CONCERNS AT DEXTER
(CULVERT FLOODING) IN SRN PENOBSCOT CNTY AND THE ST FRANCIS AREA
(ICE JAM) IN NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY RESPECTIVELY SO WILL CONT BOTH
THESE WRNGS ATTM.

WILL CONT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AS WELL...

PREV DISC:  THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
BUT AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING
FLOOD WARNINGS. CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO
CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...OKULSKI/MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...KHW/CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 180139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 180139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 172348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
748 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 172348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
748 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCAR 172322
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
722 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL BUT
AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING FLOOD
WARNINGS.  CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO CANCELING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 172322
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
722 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE: HIGH PRES CNTRD JUST E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CLDS CROSSING THE AREA. OTHER THAN HYDRO ISSUES AS DETAILED
BLO...WX PTRN APPEARS QUIET THRU FRI.  NO CHANGES ATTM...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL BUT
AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING FLOOD
WARNINGS.  CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO CANCELING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/RB
HYDROLOGY...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 171931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL BUT
AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING FLOOD
WARNINGS.  CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO CANCELLING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...RB/RB
MARINE...RB/RB
HYDROLOGY...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 171931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER
20S DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND A WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER
50S NORTH WHERE FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE DENSER. AS THE PARENT
LOW FILLS IN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND STALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN LATER THURSDAY AND
BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO WELL OVER
AN INCH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP HYDRO
CONCERNS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS AND KEEPS
RIVERS ELEVATED. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE
CONCERN THAT THE GFS MOVES THE CUT-OFF EASTWARD TOO RAPIDLY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA DUE TO DRY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN MAIN. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG SO HAVE LET THE SCA FROM THIS
MORNING EXPIRE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HSA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL BUT
AROOSTOOK AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE THERE ARE STILL ONGOING FLOOD
WARNINGS.  CALLS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND GAGES LED TO CANCELLING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES.

THE HIGHLIGHTS ATTM INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE STILLWATER
RIVER IN ORONO WHERE SOME HOUSES HAD THEIR BASEMENTS FLOODED THIS
MORNING AND WATER FLOWED OVER A PORTION OF THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.  A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DEXTER AREA WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN FLOODING IN TOWN AND A CULVERT LET GO.  A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT ALONG THE ST JOHN RIVER IN THE ST FRANCIS AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT <0.25"...AND IN MOST AREAS
< 0.10" WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR
A MORE CONTROLLED RELEASED OF SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE.

PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOOD WARNINGS
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-005-006-011-
     015.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...RB/RB
MARINE...RB/RB
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 171856
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.




&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL...RIVERS
ARE RECEDING BECAUSE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED SNOWMELT.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE
DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/JENSENIUS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 171856
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.




&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL...RIVERS
ARE RECEDING BECAUSE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED SNOWMELT.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE
DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/JENSENIUS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 171645 AAC
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN DECREASING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-002-005-
     006-011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...BOGEL








000
FXUS61 KCAR 171645 AAC
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN DECREASING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-002-005-
     006-011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...BOGEL








000
FXUS61 KCAR 171645 AAC
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN DECREASING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-002-005-
     006-011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...BOGEL








000
FXUS61 KCAR 171645 AAC
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN DECREASING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-002-005-
     006-011-015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...BOGEL








000
FXUS61 KGYX 171603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...QUIET AND COLD SPRING DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 171603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...QUIET AND COLD SPRING DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 171346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RESULTING
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 171346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RESULTING
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 171346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RESULTING
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 171346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RESULTING
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...CB





000
FXUS61 KGYX 171319
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 171319
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 171146
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
746 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
740 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND
KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: DECIDED TO LET THE AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRE AS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE RECEDING. STILL SOME ROAD CLOSURES BUT CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED TO BE IMPROVING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER- FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING
SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
     011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 171146
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
746 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
740 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND
KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: DECIDED TO LET THE AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRE AS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE RECEDING. STILL SOME ROAD CLOSURES BUT CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED TO BE IMPROVING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER- FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING
SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
     011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 171146
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
746 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
740 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND
KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: DECIDED TO LET THE AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRE AS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE RECEDING. STILL SOME ROAD CLOSURES BUT CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED TO BE IMPROVING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER- FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING
SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
     011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 171146
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
746 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
740 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND
KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: DECIDED TO LET THE AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRE AS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE RECEDING. STILL SOME ROAD CLOSURES BUT CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED TO BE IMPROVING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER- FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING
SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY
LATER THIS MORNING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
     011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA






000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA






000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA






000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA






000
FXUS61 KGYX 170711
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170711
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 170706
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
306 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND
KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AS FLOODING STILL BEING REPORTED IN
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS REGION. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE SET TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM. WILL ADDRESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING AS REPORTS
COME IN. SOME RIVERS STILL RUNNING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE
MATTAWAMKEAG AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-
FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW
RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE
ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY LATER THIS MORNING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 170706
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
306 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND
KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AS FLOODING STILL BEING REPORTED IN
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS REGION. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE SET TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM. WILL ADDRESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING AS REPORTS
COME IN. SOME RIVERS STILL RUNNING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE
MATTAWAMKEAG AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-
FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW
RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE
ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY LATER THIS MORNING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 170706
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
306 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND
KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AS FLOODING STILL BEING REPORTED IN
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS REGION. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE SET TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM. WILL ADDRESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING AS REPORTS
COME IN. SOME RIVERS STILL RUNNING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE
MATTAWAMKEAG AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-
FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW
RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE
ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY LATER THIS MORNING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 170706
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
306 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND
KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AS FLOODING STILL BEING REPORTED IN
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS REGION. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE SET TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM. WILL ADDRESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING AS REPORTS
COME IN. SOME RIVERS STILL RUNNING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE
MATTAWAMKEAG AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-
FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW
RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE
ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY LATER THIS MORNING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...









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