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000
FXUS61 KCAR 030401
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1201 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 0000 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 030401
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1201 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 0000 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 030332
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1132 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1130PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST POP TO REFLECT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AREAS AND MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... BUT STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

7 PM...UPDATED POPS TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR...EXCEPT ALONG THE MID- COAST WHERE MARINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. SHRA/TSRA JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WILL WORK THEIR WAY EWD
AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT VLY 01-02Z...EARLIEST IN THE FAR N.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR BULK OF THIS PRECIP TO
SHIFT ACROSS MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE LKLY/CAT POPS OVERNIGHT TO THIS AREA AND
JUST WENT WITH CHC POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

PREVIOUSLY...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030332
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1132 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1130PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST POP TO REFLECT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AREAS AND MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... BUT STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

7 PM...UPDATED POPS TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR...EXCEPT ALONG THE MID- COAST WHERE MARINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. SHRA/TSRA JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WILL WORK THEIR WAY EWD
AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT VLY 01-02Z...EARLIEST IN THE FAR N.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR BULK OF THIS PRECIP TO
SHIFT ACROSS MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE LKLY/CAT POPS OVERNIGHT TO THIS AREA AND
JUST WENT WITH CHC POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

PREVIOUSLY...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030332
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1132 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1130PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST POP TO REFLECT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AREAS AND MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... BUT STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

7 PM...UPDATED POPS TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR...EXCEPT ALONG THE MID- COAST WHERE MARINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. SHRA/TSRA JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WILL WORK THEIR WAY EWD
AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT VLY 01-02Z...EARLIEST IN THE FAR N.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR BULK OF THIS PRECIP TO
SHIFT ACROSS MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE LKLY/CAT POPS OVERNIGHT TO THIS AREA AND
JUST WENT WITH CHC POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

PREVIOUSLY...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030332
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1132 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1130PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST POP TO REFLECT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AREAS AND MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... BUT STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

7 PM...UPDATED POPS TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR...EXCEPT ALONG THE MID- COAST WHERE MARINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. SHRA/TSRA JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WILL WORK THEIR WAY EWD
AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT VLY 01-02Z...EARLIEST IN THE FAR N.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR BULK OF THIS PRECIP TO
SHIFT ACROSS MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE LKLY/CAT POPS OVERNIGHT TO THIS AREA AND
JUST WENT WITH CHC POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

PREVIOUSLY...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 030140
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT THE FIRST WAVE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS HAS MOVED E ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA AS OF MID EVE. ONE
NARROW BAND OF TSTMS OVR CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY
NORTHEAST OF THE N END OF MOOSEHEAD LK MAY BE RESULTING IN LCLZD
STREAM FLOODING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE RNFL HAS BEEN LGT. BOTH
3-6 HR SYNOPTIC AND HRRR (HRLY) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE GENERAL
RNFL MOVG ACROSS ALL OF THE FA LATER TNGT...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED CNVCTN RE-ALIGNING OVR WSW AND DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA WHERE MUCAPES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1000 J/KG WELL INTO
THE LATE NGT.

OTHERWISE...WE INCREASED CVRG OF FOG OVRNGT ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST OBS ALREADY SHOWING MORE DENSE FOG THERE.
OTHERWISE...HRLY FCST TEMPS TO POSTED OVRNGT LOWS AT 5 TO 6 AM
WERE MODIFIED SLGTLY BASED ON TRENDS FROM 9 PM OBS FROM THE PREV
FCST OF TEMPS AT 9 PM.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY









000
FXUS61 KCAR 030140
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT THE FIRST WAVE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS HAS MOVED E ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA AS OF MID EVE. ONE
NARROW BAND OF TSTMS OVR CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY
NORTHEAST OF THE N END OF MOOSEHEAD LK MAY BE RESULTING IN LCLZD
STREAM FLOODING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE RNFL HAS BEEN LGT. BOTH
3-6 HR SYNOPTIC AND HRRR (HRLY) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE GENERAL
RNFL MOVG ACROSS ALL OF THE FA LATER TNGT...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED CNVCTN RE-ALIGNING OVR WSW AND DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA WHERE MUCAPES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1000 J/KG WELL INTO
THE LATE NGT.

OTHERWISE...WE INCREASED CVRG OF FOG OVRNGT ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST OBS ALREADY SHOWING MORE DENSE FOG THERE.
OTHERWISE...HRLY FCST TEMPS TO POSTED OVRNGT LOWS AT 5 TO 6 AM
WERE MODIFIED SLGTLY BASED ON TRENDS FROM 9 PM OBS FROM THE PREV
FCST OF TEMPS AT 9 PM.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KGYX 022314
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
714 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM...UPDATED POPS TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR...EXCEPT ALONG THE MID-COAST WHERE MARINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. SHRA/TSRA JUA=ST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WILL WORK THEIR WAY
EWD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT VLY 01-02Z...EARLIEST IN THE FAR
N. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR BULK OF THIS PRECIP TO
SHIFT ACROSS MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE LKLY/CAT POPS OVERNIGHT TO THIS AREA
AND JUST WENT WITH CHC POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

PREVIOUSLY...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ENW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 022314
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
714 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM...UPDATED POPS TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR...EXCEPT ALONG THE MID-COAST WHERE MARINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. SHRA/TSRA JUA=ST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WILL WORK THEIR WAY
EWD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT VLY 01-02Z...EARLIEST IN THE FAR
N. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR BULK OF THIS PRECIP TO
SHIFT ACROSS MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE LKLY/CAT POPS OVERNIGHT TO THIS AREA
AND JUST WENT WITH CHC POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

PREVIOUSLY...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ENW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 022314
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
714 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM...UPDATED POPS TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR...EXCEPT ALONG THE MID-COAST WHERE MARINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. SHRA/TSRA JUA=ST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WILL WORK THEIR WAY
EWD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT VLY 01-02Z...EARLIEST IN THE FAR
N. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR BULK OF THIS PRECIP TO
SHIFT ACROSS MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE LKLY/CAT POPS OVERNIGHT TO THIS AREA
AND JUST WENT WITH CHC POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

PREVIOUSLY...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ENW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 022314
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
714 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM...UPDATED POPS TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR...EXCEPT ALONG THE MID-COAST WHERE MARINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. SHRA/TSRA JUA=ST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WILL WORK THEIR WAY
EWD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT VLY 01-02Z...EARLIEST IN THE FAR
N. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR BULK OF THIS PRECIP TO
SHIFT ACROSS MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE LKLY/CAT POPS OVERNIGHT TO THIS AREA
AND JUST WENT WITH CHC POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

PREVIOUSLY...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ENW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 022159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
550 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LN OF SHWRS AND SCT
TSTMS OVR NW ME MOVG E...WITH THE STRONGEST OF TSTMS (A FEW)
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL...ALONG WITH GENERALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AN SPS WAS ISSUED
INTO ERLY EVE HIGHLIGHTING THESE ELEMENTS...BUT FCSTS OF SBCAPE
OVR NERN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE NEXT COUPLE HRS WHERE THIS LN IS
MOVG TOWARD IS FCSTNG LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO THE OVRALL TREND OF
THIS LN SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING BY 7 PM OR SO.
OTHERWISE...BASED ON THE CURRENT PSN OF SHWRS...WE NEEDED TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF POPS INTO THE REST OF THE FA BY A COUPLE OF HRS USING
THE TM SHIFT TOOL. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD CVR AND
HRLY TEMPS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND HRLY SFC OBS.
NO CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY






000
FXUS61 KCAR 022159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
550 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LN OF SHWRS AND SCT
TSTMS OVR NW ME MOVG E...WITH THE STRONGEST OF TSTMS (A FEW)
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL...ALONG WITH GENERALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AN SPS WAS ISSUED
INTO ERLY EVE HIGHLIGHTING THESE ELEMENTS...BUT FCSTS OF SBCAPE
OVR NERN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE NEXT COUPLE HRS WHERE THIS LN IS
MOVG TOWARD IS FCSTNG LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO THE OVRALL TREND OF
THIS LN SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING BY 7 PM OR SO.
OTHERWISE...BASED ON THE CURRENT PSN OF SHWRS...WE NEEDED TO SLOW
THE ONSET OF POPS INTO THE REST OF THE FA BY A COUPLE OF HRS USING
THE TM SHIFT TOOL. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD CVR AND
HRLY TEMPS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND HRLY SFC OBS.
NO CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE
A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 021932
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS
DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE A HIGH THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO
DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST
NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR
DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE
DRY FOR SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE
PROTECTED VALLEYS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR
ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT.



SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS
CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.


SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KGYX 021849
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS
AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS HEATING CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT AND FREEZING
LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ENW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 021849
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS
AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS HEATING CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT AND FREEZING
LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ENW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 021849
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS
AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS HEATING CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT AND FREEZING
LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ENW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 021849
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY KICKING OFF LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS
AREA TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MARINE LAYER IN SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE POPPING UP IN HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS AS HEATING CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR AT THE MOMENT AND FREEZING
LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

MAIN EVENT WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. WILL LIKELY BE GETTING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. WILL SEE
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR A BREEZY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE DAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

CLEAR AND COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DIPS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION THU BUT MOVES E ON FRI. COOLER
AND DRIER WITH BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH UNTIL LATE FRI. ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY SAT
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ENW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS, WX AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. BECOMING MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FRI
NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT NIGHT.  CONDS RETURN TO VFR SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SAT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM S-SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 021642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW ZONES WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT JUST A BIT FURTHER EAST OF WHERE
THESE SHOWERS ARE. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTH BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON DOWNEAST WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS IN
AREAS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 021642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW ZONES WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT JUST A BIT FURTHER EAST OF WHERE
THESE SHOWERS ARE. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTH BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON DOWNEAST WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS IN
AREAS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 021642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW ZONES WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT JUST A BIT FURTHER EAST OF WHERE
THESE SHOWERS ARE. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTH BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON DOWNEAST WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS IN
AREAS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 021642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW ZONES WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT JUST A BIT FURTHER EAST OF WHERE
THESE SHOWERS ARE. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTH BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON DOWNEAST WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS IN
AREAS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 021412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...SOME MIST AND FOG CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN PLACES
ALONG WITH A STRATUS DECK HOWEVER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
IMPROVING SO ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ONE AREA
THAT HAS STARTED TO CLEAR OUT IS THE NW SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO
SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER A LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT HAS
FORMED OVER S QB AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE NW BY
AROUND MIDDAY. FOR THIS REASON RAISED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR
TODAY DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER DOWNEAST AREAS DUE TO STRATUS
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 021412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...SOME MIST AND FOG CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN PLACES
ALONG WITH A STRATUS DECK HOWEVER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
IMPROVING SO ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ONE AREA
THAT HAS STARTED TO CLEAR OUT IS THE NW SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO
SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER A LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT HAS
FORMED OVER S QB AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE NW BY
AROUND MIDDAY. FOR THIS REASON RAISED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR
TODAY DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER DOWNEAST AREAS DUE TO STRATUS
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 021047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 021047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 021046
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION WESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH VSBYS BELOW A HALF MILE OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION...WITH
GOOD COLLABORATION WITH WFO CAR. VSBYS HAVE JUST TURNED LOWER AS
WELL IN THE PORTLAND AREA. THIS FOG IS IN A VERY SHALLOW LAYER AND
SHOULD MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT
WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003>006-
     009.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 021046
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION WESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH VSBYS BELOW A HALF MILE OVER THE
REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION...WITH
GOOD COLLABORATION WITH WFO CAR. VSBYS HAVE JUST TURNED LOWER AS
WELL IN THE PORTLAND AREA. THIS FOG IS IN A VERY SHALLOW LAYER AND
SHOULD MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT
WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003>006-
     009.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 021025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION WITH VSBYS BELOW A
HALF MILE OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION...WITH GOOD COLLABORATION WITH WFO CAR. VSBYS HAVE
JUST TURNED LOWER AS WELL IN THE PORTLAND AREA. THIS FOG IS IN A
VERY SHALLOW LAYER AND SHOULD MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT
WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ020>022-
     025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 021025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION WITH VSBYS BELOW A
HALF MILE OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION...WITH GOOD COLLABORATION WITH WFO CAR. VSBYS HAVE
JUST TURNED LOWER AS WELL IN THE PORTLAND AREA. THIS FOG IS IN A
VERY SHALLOW LAYER AND SHOULD MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT
WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ020>022-
     025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 020902
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 020902
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 020902
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 020902
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE
LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KGYX 020814
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
414 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION WITH VSBYS BELOW A
HALF MILE OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION...WITH GOOD COLLABORATION WITH WFO CAR.

NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT
WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ020>022-
     025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 020814
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
414 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION WITH VSBYS BELOW A
HALF MILE OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION...WITH GOOD COLLABORATION WITH WFO CAR.

NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT
WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ020>022-
     025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 020814
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
414 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION WITH VSBYS BELOW A
HALF MILE OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION...WITH GOOD COLLABORATION WITH WFO CAR.

NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT
WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ020>022-
     025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 020814
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
414 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDCOAST REGION WITH VSBYS BELOW A
HALF MILE OVER THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION...WITH GOOD COLLABORATION WITH WFO CAR.

NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT
WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ020>022-
     025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 020709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION.

COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY
TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT
OF THE AREA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH
WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 020501
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH FOG. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY TODAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/WND/SKY/POP
TUESDAY. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25
PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE
STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER
NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE
TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A
WARM SW FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A
LATE DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING TUESDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 020501
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH FOG. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY TODAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/WND/SKY/POP
TUESDAY. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25
PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE
STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER
NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE
TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A
WARM SW FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A
LATE DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING TUESDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 020226
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CANCELLED AS SHOWERS WIND DOWN AND
EXIT THE CWA. OVERNIGHT POPS GENERALLY BROUGHT DOWN TO 10 PERCENT
IN OR LESS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LOW LVL MOISTURE AND A FEW BOUNDARIES
LURKING AROUND FORM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHRA POPPING UP. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG MOST
EVERYWHERE...WITH MORE LOCALLY DENS VLY FOG AND PERHAPS ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

840 PM...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE LAST HOUR
TO COVER THE SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND REGENERATING ON
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JAY...LIVERMORE FALL REGION EAST INTO
THE BELGRADE LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THESE DO FALL APART OR
MOVE ON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS RADAR EST RAINFALL RATES AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS...MINS A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AND
HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 020226
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CANCELLED AS SHOWERS WIND DOWN AND
EXIT THE CWA. OVERNIGHT POPS GENERALLY BROUGHT DOWN TO 10 PERCENT
IN OR LESS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LOW LVL MOISTURE AND A FEW BOUNDARIES
LURKING AROUND FORM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHRA POPPING UP. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG MOST
EVERYWHERE...WITH MORE LOCALLY DENS VLY FOG AND PERHAPS ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

840 PM...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE LAST HOUR
TO COVER THE SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND REGENERATING ON
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JAY...LIVERMORE FALL REGION EAST INTO
THE BELGRADE LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THESE DO FALL APART OR
MOVE ON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS RADAR EST RAINFALL RATES AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS...MINS A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AND
HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 020226
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CANCELLED AS SHOWERS WIND DOWN AND
EXIT THE CWA. OVERNIGHT POPS GENERALLY BROUGHT DOWN TO 10 PERCENT
IN OR LESS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LOW LVL MOISTURE AND A FEW BOUNDARIES
LURKING AROUND FORM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHRA POPPING UP. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG MOST
EVERYWHERE...WITH MORE LOCALLY DENS VLY FOG AND PERHAPS ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

840 PM...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE LAST HOUR
TO COVER THE SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND REGENERATING ON
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JAY...LIVERMORE FALL REGION EAST INTO
THE BELGRADE LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THESE DO FALL APART OR
MOVE ON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS RADAR EST RAINFALL RATES AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS...MINS A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AND
HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 020226
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CANCELLED AS SHOWERS WIND DOWN AND
EXIT THE CWA. OVERNIGHT POPS GENERALLY BROUGHT DOWN TO 10 PERCENT
IN OR LESS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LOW LVL MOISTURE AND A FEW BOUNDARIES
LURKING AROUND FORM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHRA POPPING UP. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG MOST
EVERYWHERE...WITH MORE LOCALLY DENS VLY FOG AND PERHAPS ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

840 PM...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE LAST HOUR
TO COVER THE SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND REGENERATING ON
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JAY...LIVERMORE FALL REGION EAST INTO
THE BELGRADE LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THESE DO FALL APART OR
MOVE ON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS RADAR EST RAINFALL RATES AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS...MINS A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AND
HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 020046
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
846 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
840 PM...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE LAST HOUR
TO COVER THE SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND REGENERATING ON
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JAY...LIVERMORE FALL REGION EAST INTO
THE BELGRADE LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THESE DO FALL APART OR
MOVE ON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS RADAR EST RAINFALL RATES AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS...MINS A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AND
HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020046
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
846 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
840 PM...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE LAST HOUR
TO COVER THE SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND REGENERATING ON
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JAY...LIVERMORE FALL REGION EAST INTO
THE BELGRADE LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THESE DO FALL APART OR
MOVE ON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS RADAR EST RAINFALL RATES AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS...MINS A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AND
HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020046
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
846 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
840 PM...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE LAST HOUR
TO COVER THE SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND REGENERATING ON
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JAY...LIVERMORE FALL REGION EAST INTO
THE BELGRADE LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THESE DO FALL APART OR
MOVE ON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS RADAR EST RAINFALL RATES AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS...MINS A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AND
HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020046
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
846 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
840 PM...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE LAST HOUR
TO COVER THE SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND REGENERATING ON
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JAY...LIVERMORE FALL REGION EAST INTO
THE BELGRADE LAKES. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THESE DO FALL APART OR
MOVE ON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS RADAR EST RAINFALL RATES AROUND
2 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS...MINS A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH AND
HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 020018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
818 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TSTMS DISSIPATED
LEAVING ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHWR ACTIVITY MSLY ACROSS WRN AND SRN
PTNS OF THE FA. TSTMS WERE ELIMINATED FROM THE FCST GRIDS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVE AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS CVRG. OTHERWISE
HRLY FCST CLD CVR AND TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE OVRNGT BASED ON
LATEST SAT AND SFC OBS. FCST OVRNGT LOWS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH
MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A
WARM SW FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A
LATE DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 020018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
818 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TSTMS DISSIPATED
LEAVING ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHWR ACTIVITY MSLY ACROSS WRN AND SRN
PTNS OF THE FA. TSTMS WERE ELIMINATED FROM THE FCST GRIDS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVE AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS CVRG. OTHERWISE
HRLY FCST CLD CVR AND TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE OVRNGT BASED ON
LATEST SAT AND SFC OBS. FCST OVRNGT LOWS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH
MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A
WARM SW FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A
LATE DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 012159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE ADDED AN HR OR TWO OF ENHANCED TSTM WORDING ERLY THIS EVE FOR THE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVR SE ME...AFT WHICH...WE XPCT DISSIPATION OF AT
LEAST THE THUNDER ASPECT OF THESE SHWRS AS SBCAPE CURRENTLY NEAR
1000 J/KG OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HRLY CLD CVR AND FCST TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND OBSVD TEMPS OVR THE THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH
MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 012159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE ADDED AN HR OR TWO OF ENHANCED TSTM WORDING ERLY THIS EVE FOR THE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVR SE ME...AFT WHICH...WE XPCT DISSIPATION OF AT
LEAST THE THUNDER ASPECT OF THESE SHWRS AS SBCAPE CURRENTLY NEAR
1000 J/KG OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HRLY CLD CVR AND FCST TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND OBSVD TEMPS OVR THE THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID
DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH
MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO
BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY
SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 011948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY TOMORROW. THE
GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE
PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
THAT TRACKED THROUGH MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND
THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY TOMORROW. THE
GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE
PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
THAT TRACKED THROUGH MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND
THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY TOMORROW. THE
GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE
PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
THAT TRACKED THROUGH MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND
THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY TOMORROW. THE
GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE
PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
THAT TRACKED THROUGH MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND
THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW
FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE
DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY
MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR
AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG
FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID
MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO
FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORTON/FITZSIMMONS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 011855
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
255 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SINSABAUGH/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UDPATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS ZONES
1...3 THROUGH 5...10...AND 31. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
SEEN AS WELL ACROSS SW ZONE 5. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 011625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UDPATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS ZONES
1...3 THROUGH 5...10...AND 31. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
SEEN AS WELL ACROSS SW ZONE 5. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 011625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UDPATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS ZONES
1...3 THROUGH 5...10...AND 31. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
SEEN AS WELL ACROSS SW ZONE 5. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 011625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UDPATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS ZONES
1...3 THROUGH 5...10...AND 31. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
SEEN AS WELL ACROSS SW ZONE 5. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 011305
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UDPATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS. MAINLY CLOUDY THE
REST OF THE MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO BURN OFF.
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO START POPPING UP AS A SMALL WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 011305
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UDPATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS. MAINLY CLOUDY THE
REST OF THE MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO BURN OFF.
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO START POPPING UP AS A SMALL WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 011040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO SOME OF THE GRIDS. LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS WELL.

PREV DISC...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO SOME OF THE GRIDS. LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS WELL.

PREV DISC...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO SOME OF THE GRIDS. LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS WELL.

PREV DISC...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO SOME OF THE GRIDS. LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS WELL.

PREV DISC...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UDPATE...DECREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS RAIN FREE. SOME SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN MAINE. SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THERE.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 011016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UDPATE...DECREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS RAIN FREE. SOME SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN MAINE. SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THERE.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KGYX 010716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED TO OUR
EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED TO OUR
EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED TO OUR
EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED TO OUR
EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE




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