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000
FXUS61 KGYX 301354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...IT SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP A BIT...SOME DIURNAL CU MAY CAUSE SKIES
TO GO BKN AT TIMES IN SPOTS.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...IT SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP A BIT...SOME DIURNAL CU MAY CAUSE SKIES
TO GO BKN AT TIMES IN SPOTS.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE


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000
FXUS61 KCAR 301318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/






000
FXUS61 KCAR 301318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/






000
FXUS61 KCAR 301318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/






000
FXUS61 KCAR 301318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/






000
FXUS61 KGYX 301001
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
601 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 301001
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
601 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300955
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT AND ADDED JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST WEST OF WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 300955
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT AND ADDED JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST WEST OF WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS












000
FXUS61 KCAR 300857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS













000
FXUS61 KGYX 300716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300708
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300708
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES AND SHOULD SLOW THEIR PRECIPITOUS DROP AND
DROP SLOWER THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EVENING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS
SAT NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP
FORECAST. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES AND SHOULD SLOW THEIR PRECIPITOUS DROP AND
DROP SLOWER THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EVENING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS
SAT NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP
FORECAST. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1135 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11:35 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR OVERNIGHT UPDATE. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DROP IN TEMPS WILL SLOW DOWN AS HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE BEGINS BEHIND THE HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1135 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11:35 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR OVERNIGHT UPDATE. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DROP IN TEMPS WILL SLOW DOWN AS HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE BEGINS BEHIND THE HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1135 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11:35 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR OVERNIGHT UPDATE. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DROP IN TEMPS WILL SLOW DOWN AS HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE BEGINS BEHIND THE HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1135 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11:35 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR OVERNIGHT UPDATE. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DROP IN TEMPS WILL SLOW DOWN AS HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE BEGINS BEHIND THE HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN







000
FXUS61 KGYX 300208 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1008 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES AND SHOULD SLOW THEIR PRECIPITOUS DROP AND
DROP SLOWER THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EVENING OUT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED A FEW WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NH AND PORTIONS OF MAINE AS JUICIER AIRMASS
AND A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE
FOG...PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THIS
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS
SAT NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP
FORECAST. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 300131
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
931 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS ARE COOLING OFF PRETTY FAST THIS EVENING, BUT
EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO SLOW DOWN, AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 300131
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
931 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS ARE COOLING OFF PRETTY FAST THIS EVENING, BUT
EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO SLOW DOWN, AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN







000
FXUS61 KGYX 292326 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED A FEW WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NH AND PORTIONS OF MAINE AS JUICIER AIRMASS
AND A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE
FOG...PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THIS
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH
PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL GUARANTEE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL DUE TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS
SAT NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP
FORECAST. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 292326 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED A FEW WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NH AND PORTIONS OF MAINE AS JUICIER AIRMASS
AND A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE
FOG...PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THIS
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH
PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL GUARANTEE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL DUE TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS
SAT NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP
FORECAST. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 292326 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED A FEW WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NH AND PORTIONS OF MAINE AS JUICIER AIRMASS
AND A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE
FOG...PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THIS
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH
PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL GUARANTEE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL DUE TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS
SAT NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP
FORECAST. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 292326 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED A FEW WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NH AND PORTIONS OF MAINE AS JUICIER AIRMASS
AND A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE
FOG...PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THIS
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH
PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL GUARANTEE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL DUE TO THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS
SAT NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP
FORECAST. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 292242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
642 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
635 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP, ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 292242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
642 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
635 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP, ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 292242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
642 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
635 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP, ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 292242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
642 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
635 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP, ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN






000
FXUS61 KGYX 291901
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL GUARANTEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL DUE TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
S/WVS THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHWRS OR TSTMS SAT NIGHT
AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP FCST.
TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHWRS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291901
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL GUARANTEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL DUE TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
S/WVS THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHWRS OR TSTMS SAT NIGHT
AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP FCST.
TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHWRS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291846
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 291846
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/VJN











000
FXUS61 KCAR 291642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, SKY
COVER, AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT AS WE WILL JUST BE SEEING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT FOR
INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS WHERE WINDS WILL DROP OFF WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE
BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR FROM KMLT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 291642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, SKY
COVER, AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT AS WE WILL JUST BE SEEING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT FOR
INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS WHERE WINDS WILL DROP OFF WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE
BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR FROM KMLT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KGYX 291405
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS DATA...OTRW
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
3-5 FT ATTM BUT IN LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS WHICH DOES NOT
CONSTITUTE THE NEED FOR AN SCA SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA OVER THE
MIDCOAST OUTER WATERS. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291405
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS DATA...OTRW
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
3-5 FT ATTM BUT IN LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS WHICH DOES NOT
CONSTITUTE THE NEED FOR AN SCA SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA OVER THE
MIDCOAST OUTER WATERS. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291405
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS DATA...OTRW
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
3-5 FT ATTM BUT IN LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS WHICH DOES NOT
CONSTITUTE THE NEED FOR AN SCA SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA OVER THE
MIDCOAST OUTER WATERS. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291405
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS DATA...OTRW
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
3-5 FT ATTM BUT IN LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS WHICH DOES NOT
CONSTITUTE THE NEED FOR AN SCA SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA OVER THE
MIDCOAST OUTER WATERS. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER, TEMPERATURE,
AND WINDS GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR FROM KMLT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 291318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER, TEMPERATURE,
AND WINDS GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR FROM KMLT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 291318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER, TEMPERATURE,
AND WINDS GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR FROM KMLT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 291318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER, TEMPERATURE,
AND WINDS GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR FROM KMLT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KGYX 291025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

624 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET.

AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS EARLY TODAY THEN AGAIN EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...BUT DEEP WATER
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INTO THE DAY ON
FRI...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA
CRITERIA LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

624 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET.

AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS EARLY TODAY THEN AGAIN EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...BUT DEEP WATER
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INTO THE DAY ON
FRI...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA
CRITERIA LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 291011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
611 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
610 AM...A COOL START TO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH 31F
AT ESTCOURT STATION AS OF 6 AM. THIS IS THE FIRST FREEZING TEMP
SINCE JUNE 1ST. THERE IS ONE LAST BATCH OF STRATOCU FROM JUST
SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET TO THE COAST THAT IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE
AND WILL DISSIPATE AND PUSH OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR FROM KMLT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 291011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
611 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
610 AM...A COOL START TO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH 31F
AT ESTCOURT STATION AS OF 6 AM. THIS IS THE FIRST FREEZING TEMP
SINCE JUNE 1ST. THERE IS ONE LAST BATCH OF STRATOCU FROM JUST
SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET TO THE COAST THAT IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE
AND WILL DISSIPATE AND PUSH OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR FROM KMLT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 290718 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TO SOUTH OF KHUL EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290718 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TO SOUTH OF KHUL EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290718 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TO SOUTH OF KHUL EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290718 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TO SOUTH OF KHUL EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290716
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
316 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TO SOUTH OF KHUL EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290716
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
316 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL
BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN
TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR
EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TO SOUTH OF KHUL EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290634
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
234 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS EARLY TODAY THEN AGAIN EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...BUT DEEP WATER
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INTO THE DAY ON
FRI...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA
CRITERIA LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290634
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
234 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS EARLY TODAY THEN AGAIN EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...BUT DEEP WATER
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INTO THE DAY ON
FRI...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA
CRITERIA LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290634
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
234 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS EARLY TODAY THEN AGAIN EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...BUT DEEP WATER
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INTO THE DAY ON
FRI...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA
CRITERIA LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290634
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
234 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WITHOUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUD. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE CRESTING SURFACE
HIGH...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...A SUNNY START AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PREFER
THE EURO/GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING HUNG UP AND STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AS
EXIT OUR DRY PERIOD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS EARLY TODAY THEN AGAIN EARLY SAT.

.LONG TERM...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...BUT DEEP WATER
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INTO THE DAY ON
FRI...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA
CRITERIA LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 290432 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1232 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1231 AM UPDATE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES. A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE...MAINLY EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE NOW IN MUCH OF NW MAINE AND THE AREA OF CLEARING WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS TO BE CLEAR OR AT LEAST
P/CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE
MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE WEATHER TONIGHT. ESTCOURT STATION IS DOWN TO 42F AS
OF MIDNIGHT AND WILL LOWER TEMPS SOME ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FRENCHVILLE TO
HOULTON. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS AS
FAR WEST OF BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR. THE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHEAST MAINE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VFR FOR FRI.

SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290432 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1232 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1231 AM UPDATE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES. A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE...MAINLY EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE NOW IN MUCH OF NW MAINE AND THE AREA OF CLEARING WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS TO BE CLEAR OR AT LEAST
P/CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE
MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE WEATHER TONIGHT. ESTCOURT STATION IS DOWN TO 42F AS
OF MIDNIGHT AND WILL LOWER TEMPS SOME ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FRENCHVILLE TO
HOULTON. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS AS
FAR WEST OF BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR. THE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHEAST MAINE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VFR FOR FRI.

SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 290428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1228 AM UPDATE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES. A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE...MAINLY EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE NOW IN MUCH OF NW MAINE AND THE AREA OF CLEARING WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS TO BE CLEAR OR AT LEAST
P/CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE
MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE WEATHER TONIGHT.

CHILLY, RAW EVENING OVER NORTHERN MAINE WITH
DRIZZLE, LIGHT SHOWERS, A DECENT NORTH BREEZE, AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S AND FIXING TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR
THIS. ALSO TWEAKED SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS, WHICH IS
CLOUDY NORTH OF MILLINOCKET AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET
AS OF 920 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE MAIN PUSH BEING OVER FAR
EASTERN MAINE EAST OF BANGOR AND LINCOLN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 630 PM, SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER,
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MAINE THIS
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. RIMOUSKI
HAD A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, AND PER WEBCAMS, THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE REACHED ST QUENTIN IN NORTHWEST NEW BRUNSWICK.
EXPECT THE LIGHT SHOWERS TO REACH NORTHEAST MAINE BY MID EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DROPPING IN A HURRY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE
GET A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. FRENCHVILLE IS DOWN TO 55
DEGREES AS 6 PM.

LATER TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COOL AS THEY COULD BE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FRENCHVILLE TO
HOULTON. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS AS
FAR WEST OF BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR. THE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHEAST MAINE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VFR FOR FRI.

SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1228 AM UPDATE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES. A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE...MAINLY EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE NOW IN MUCH OF NW MAINE AND THE AREA OF CLEARING WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS TO BE CLEAR OR AT LEAST
P/CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE
MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE WEATHER TONIGHT.

CHILLY, RAW EVENING OVER NORTHERN MAINE WITH
DRIZZLE, LIGHT SHOWERS, A DECENT NORTH BREEZE, AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S AND FIXING TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR
THIS. ALSO TWEAKED SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS, WHICH IS
CLOUDY NORTH OF MILLINOCKET AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET
AS OF 920 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE MAIN PUSH BEING OVER FAR
EASTERN MAINE EAST OF BANGOR AND LINCOLN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 630 PM, SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER,
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MAINE THIS
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. RIMOUSKI
HAD A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, AND PER WEBCAMS, THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE REACHED ST QUENTIN IN NORTHWEST NEW BRUNSWICK.
EXPECT THE LIGHT SHOWERS TO REACH NORTHEAST MAINE BY MID EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DROPPING IN A HURRY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE
GET A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. FRENCHVILLE IS DOWN TO 55
DEGREES AS 6 PM.

LATER TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COOL AS THEY COULD BE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FRENCHVILLE TO
HOULTON. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS AS
FAR WEST OF BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR. THE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHEAST MAINE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VFR FOR FRI.

SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 290256 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1056 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ADJUSTED POPS FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
AND DIMINISHES THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. CLOUDS ARE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THIS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NW WINDS STILL
GUSTING INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEP WATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL
FRI MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290256 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1056 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ADJUSTED POPS FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
AND DIMINISHES THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. CLOUDS ARE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THIS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NW WINDS STILL
GUSTING INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEP WATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL
FRI MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 290132
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
932 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
CHILLY, RAW EVENING OVER NORTHERN MAINE WITH DRIZZLE, LIGHT
SHOWERS, A DECENT NORTH BREEZE, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
FIXING TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR THIS. ALSO
TWEAKED SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS, WHICH IS CLOUDY NORTH
OF MILLINOCKET AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET AS OF 920
PM. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE MAIN PUSH BEING OVER FAR EASTERN
MAINE EAST OF BANGOR AND LINCOLN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 630 PM, SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER,
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MAINE THIS
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. RIMOUSKI
HAD A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, AND PER WEBCAMS, THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE REACHED ST QUENTIN IN NORTHWEST NEW BRUNSWICK.
EXPECT THE LIGHT SHOWERS TO REACH NORTHEAST MAINE BY MID EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DROPPING IN A HURRY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE
GET A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. FRENCHVILLE IS DOWN TO 55
DEGREES AS 6 PM.

LATER TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COOL AS THEY COULD BE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING FROM FRENCHVILLE TO HOULTON,
WITH LOCALIZED EMBEDDED IFR. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR WEST OF BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR. THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MAINE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TONIGHT.
VFR FOR SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290132
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
932 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
CHILLY, RAW EVENING OVER NORTHERN MAINE WITH DRIZZLE, LIGHT
SHOWERS, A DECENT NORTH BREEZE, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
FIXING TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED FOR THIS. ALSO
TWEAKED SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS, WHICH IS CLOUDY NORTH
OF MILLINOCKET AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET AS OF 920
PM. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE MAIN PUSH BEING OVER FAR EASTERN
MAINE EAST OF BANGOR AND LINCOLN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 630 PM, SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER,
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MAINE THIS
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. RIMOUSKI
HAD A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, AND PER WEBCAMS, THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE REACHED ST QUENTIN IN NORTHWEST NEW BRUNSWICK.
EXPECT THE LIGHT SHOWERS TO REACH NORTHEAST MAINE BY MID EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DROPPING IN A HURRY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE
GET A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. FRENCHVILLE IS DOWN TO 55
DEGREES AS 6 PM.

LATER TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COOL AS THEY COULD BE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING FROM FRENCHVILLE TO HOULTON,
WITH LOCALIZED EMBEDDED IFR. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT AREAS AS FAR WEST OF BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR. THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MAINE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TONIGHT.
VFR FOR SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 282336 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
736 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND DIMINISHES
THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. CLOUDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THIS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NW WINDS STILL GUSTING INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SOME
PATCHY LATE NIGHT RIVER VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEP WATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL
FRI MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282336 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
736 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND DIMINISHES
THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. CLOUDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THIS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NW WINDS STILL GUSTING INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SOME
PATCHY LATE NIGHT RIVER VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEP WATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL
FRI MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282336 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
736 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND DIMINISHES
THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. CLOUDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THIS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NW WINDS STILL GUSTING INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SOME
PATCHY LATE NIGHT RIVER VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEP WATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL
FRI MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282336 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
736 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND DIMINISHES
THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. CLOUDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THIS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NW WINDS STILL GUSTING INTO THE 15-25
MPH RANGE BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SOME
PATCHY LATE NIGHT RIVER VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEP WATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL
FRI MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 282242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
642 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM, SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MAINE THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. RIMOUSKI HAD A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, AND PER WEBCAMS, THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
REACHED ST QUENTIN IN NORTHWEST NEW BRUNSWICK. EXPECT THE LIGHT
SHOWERS TO REACH NORTHEAST MAINE BY MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO DROPPING IN A HURRY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE GET A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOL AIR. FRENCHVILLE IS DOWN TO 55 DEGREES AS 6 PM.

LATER TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COOL AS THEY COULD BE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING FROM
HOULTON NORTH, IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 282242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
642 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM, SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MAINE THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. RIMOUSKI HAD A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, AND PER WEBCAMS, THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
REACHED ST QUENTIN IN NORTHWEST NEW BRUNSWICK. EXPECT THE LIGHT
SHOWERS TO REACH NORTHEAST MAINE BY MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO DROPPING IN A HURRY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE GET A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOL AIR. FRENCHVILLE IS DOWN TO 55 DEGREES AS 6 PM.

LATER TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COOL AS THEY COULD BE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING FROM
HOULTON NORTH, IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 282242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
642 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM, SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MAINE THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. RIMOUSKI HAD A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, AND PER WEBCAMS, THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
REACHED ST QUENTIN IN NORTHWEST NEW BRUNSWICK. EXPECT THE LIGHT
SHOWERS TO REACH NORTHEAST MAINE BY MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO DROPPING IN A HURRY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE GET A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOL AIR. FRENCHVILLE IS DOWN TO 55 DEGREES AS 6 PM.

LATER TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COOL AS THEY COULD BE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING FROM
HOULTON NORTH, IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 282242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
642 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM, SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MAINE THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. RIMOUSKI HAD A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER, AND PER WEBCAMS, THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
REACHED ST QUENTIN IN NORTHWEST NEW BRUNSWICK. EXPECT THE LIGHT
SHOWERS TO REACH NORTHEAST MAINE BY MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO DROPPING IN A HURRY EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE GET A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOL AIR. FRENCHVILLE IS DOWN TO 55 DEGREES AS 6 PM.

LATER TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COOL AS THEY COULD BE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING FROM
HOULTON NORTH, IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...FOISY/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
RIVER VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEPWATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL FRI
MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
RIVER VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEPWATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL FRI
MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
RIVER VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEPWATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL FRI
MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
RIVER VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TEMPS BUT STILL
USED A BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAA PATTERN WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG.

THIS FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
AREA AND MAY MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT EXPECT RIVER VLY
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT
DEEPWATER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ERN OUTER WATERS UNTIL FRI
MORNING. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA FRI AND
FRI NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD GROUNDSWELLS.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$



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