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000
FXUS61 KGYX 251916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
A SUNNY PLEASANT DAY IS IN PROGRESS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EVEN AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DENSE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NH/ME BORDER ALONG A WARM FRONT...AND A LARGE SWATH OF
CLOUDS FROM NY STATE WEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTH INTO
CANADA. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST BOUNDARY.

DP DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE 10-20 DEGREES SO IT MAY TAKE
A LITTLE BIT FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO MOSTLY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE CAN INTERACT WITH FRONTAL FORCING. OVERNIGHT
WE MAY GET A STRAY SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AS A PLYMOUTH TO WATERFORD
TO AUGUSTA LINE BUT IT WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS AS READINGS DROP BELOW 32...
BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. CLOUD COVER STICKS
AROUND FOR THE MOST PART HELPING KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRISK WITH GUSTY WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE OUT OF THE MID 40S
THE NORTH WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND READINGS
IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MORE LIGHT FLURRIES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK STARTS OUT WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE UPSLOPE SHOWERS COME TO AN END AS
THE SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO CALM AND THE HIGH
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH AND SHOULD RESULT IN FROST BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TOO LOW.
TUESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. FOR COASTAL REGIONS...THIS MEANS FLOW RIGHT OFF THE
WATER.. RESULTING IN A MARINE STRATUS LAYER MOVING IN BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM... WITH 850MB TEMP
AT +13C...MEAN WHILE, ON THE BACKSIDE BY 12Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS
ARE AT -5C. THIS QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE A BIT TRICKY... MORE WESTERN AREAS MAY
SEE A SUNRISE HIGH AS THE FRONT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FLAT AND DOWNWARD. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST ALONG THE
COAST THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
FINAL LAST HURRAH FOR THE FALL.

BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SITS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG FIRST A WARM FRONT AND
THAN A COLD FRONT AS THEY NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES. GUSTY WNW WINDS DEVELOP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AS
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD
OF IFR WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT HIE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL SEAS WILL SKIRT THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS
SHOULD REACH 25 KTS WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...WEEK WILL START OUT CALM. AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN SCA
CRITERIA FOR 12-18HRS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COASTAL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY HAVE NOT YET HAD A
FREEZE OR KILLING FROST THIS FALL. THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE FIRST
FALL FREEZE BASED ON 30 YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGY IS OCTOBER 11 FOR THE
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COASTLINES. IT IS NOW TWO WEEKS AFTER
THIS DATE...THEREFORE WE WILL NO LONGER ISSUE PRODUCTS FOR FREEZES
OR KILLING FROSTS FOR THIS AREA. THIS WILL CONCLUDE THE
FROST...FREEZE PROGRAM FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE FALL
SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
A SUNNY PLEASANT DAY IS IN PROGRESS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EVEN AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DENSE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NH/ME BORDER ALONG A WARM FRONT...AND A LARGE SWATH OF
CLOUDS FROM NY STATE WEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTH INTO
CANADA. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST BOUNDARY.

DP DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE 10-20 DEGREES SO IT MAY TAKE
A LITTLE BIT FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO MOSTLY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE CAN INTERACT WITH FRONTAL FORCING. OVERNIGHT
WE MAY GET A STRAY SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AS A PLYMOUTH TO WATERFORD
TO AUGUSTA LINE BUT IT WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS AS READINGS DROP BELOW 32...
BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. CLOUD COVER STICKS
AROUND FOR THE MOST PART HELPING KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRISK WITH GUSTY WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE OUT OF THE MID 40S
THE NORTH WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND READINGS
IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MORE LIGHT FLURRIES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK STARTS OUT WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE UPSLOPE SHOWERS COME TO AN END AS
THE SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO CALM AND THE HIGH
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH AND SHOULD RESULT IN FROST BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TOO LOW.
TUESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. FOR COASTAL REGIONS...THIS MEANS FLOW RIGHT OFF THE
WATER.. RESULTING IN A MARINE STRATUS LAYER MOVING IN BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM... WITH 850MB TEMP
AT +13C...MEAN WHILE, ON THE BACKSIDE BY 12Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS
ARE AT -5C. THIS QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE A BIT TRICKY... MORE WESTERN AREAS MAY
SEE A SUNRISE HIGH AS THE FRONT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FLAT AND DOWNWARD. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST ALONG THE
COAST THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
FINAL LAST HURRAH FOR THE FALL.

BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SITS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG FIRST A WARM FRONT AND
THAN A COLD FRONT AS THEY NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES. GUSTY WNW WINDS DEVELOP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AS
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD
OF IFR WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT HIE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL SEAS WILL SKIRT THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS
SHOULD REACH 25 KTS WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...WEEK WILL START OUT CALM. AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN SCA
CRITERIA FOR 12-18HRS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COASTAL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY HAVE NOT YET HAD A
FREEZE OR KILLING FROST THIS FALL. THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE FIRST
FALL FREEZE BASED ON 30 YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGY IS OCTOBER 11 FOR THE
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COASTLINES. IT IS NOW TWO WEEKS AFTER
THIS DATE...THEREFORE WE WILL NO LONGER ISSUE PRODUCTS FOR FREEZES
OR KILLING FROSTS FOR THIS AREA. THIS WILL CONCLUDE THE
FROST...FREEZE PROGRAM FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE FALL
SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/CURTIS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 251855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND AS IT CONTINUES TO FILL AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MAINE...AS A NEW LOW
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY TO JAMES
BAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE. AROUND MIDNIGHT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WRN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SRN
QUEBEC. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER WRN MAINE...AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF BY THE
JET...AND BEGIN TO BECOME COLD CORE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DOMINANCE
OF A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST.. THE STRENGTH OF A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH WHILE BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE LOW 50S. CLEARING WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FINALLY REACHING THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLEARING COULD
PRODUCE SOME CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S IN
THE ALLAGASH AND PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. A NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS TUESDAY BUT RESIDUAL STRATOCUMULUS AND WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY TO PREVENT MUCH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE WITH
RAIN BREAKING OUT LATER IN THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. THE FRONT WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY EVENING. A SECONDARY...BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. UNCERTAINTY
BUILDS TOWARDS NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF SEEMS DESTINED
TO FORM IN THE EASTERN US...BUT WHETHER IS FORMS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN US OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN QUESTION. THE
AIR ALOFT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...OR A MIX.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR FVE...CAR...PQI...AND HUL. IN WRAP AROUND PCPN
EARLY...A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING BECOMING MVFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA...HOWEVER
PCPN SHOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS N AND CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING
HRS.

SHORT TERM: ALL SITES WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT. BGR AND
BHB WILL BECOME VFR MONDAY MORNING...BUT SITES NORTH OF HUL REMAIN
MVFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT ALL SITES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR RETURNS FOR
ALL SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FROM 8AM
TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A NEW SCA IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORTON/MCW
MARINE...NORTON/MCW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 251855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND AS IT CONTINUES TO FILL AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MAINE...AS A NEW LOW
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY TO JAMES
BAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE. AROUND MIDNIGHT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WRN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SRN
QUEBEC. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER WRN MAINE...AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF BY THE
JET...AND BEGIN TO BECOME COLD CORE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DOMINANCE
OF A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST.. THE STRENGTH OF A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH WHILE BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE LOW 50S. CLEARING WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FINALLY REACHING THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLEARING COULD
PRODUCE SOME CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S IN
THE ALLAGASH AND PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. A NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS TUESDAY BUT RESIDUAL STRATOCUMULUS AND WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY TO PREVENT MUCH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE WITH
RAIN BREAKING OUT LATER IN THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. THE FRONT WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY EVENING. A SECONDARY...BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. UNCERTAINTY
BUILDS TOWARDS NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF SEEMS DESTINED
TO FORM IN THE EASTERN US...BUT WHETHER IS FORMS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN US OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN QUESTION. THE
AIR ALOFT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...OR A MIX.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR FVE...CAR...PQI...AND HUL. IN WRAP AROUND PCPN
EARLY...A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING BECOMING MVFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA...HOWEVER
PCPN SHOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS N AND CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING
HRS.

SHORT TERM: ALL SITES WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT. BGR AND
BHB WILL BECOME VFR MONDAY MORNING...BUT SITES NORTH OF HUL REMAIN
MVFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT ALL SITES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR RETURNS FOR
ALL SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FROM 8AM
TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A NEW SCA IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORTON/MCW
MARINE...NORTON/MCW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 251616
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1216 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...SCT SHWRS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS NE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT SCT SHOWERS...WILL CONTINUE PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOR ZONES 2...5...AND 6.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WE WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN AND
DOWNEAST MAINE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST TODAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL
PULL EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BLUSTERY COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR CIRCULATES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST AS THE LOW
PULLS EAST AND AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A THIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA PULLS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDING FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE OCCLUDING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE AIR WILL STILL BE MILD BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS TAKING THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT IF IT
DOES MAKE IT NORTH IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS THRU 12Z. VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY DROP TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING A GALE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
AND BE LIGHT TUESDAY AS RIDGING CROSSES THE WATER.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORTON
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/NORTON/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/NORTON/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 251457
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1057 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR ZONES
2...5...AND 6...OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WE WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE THE PAST
FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS DOWNEAST TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL
PULL EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BLUSTERY COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR CIRCULATES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST AS THE LOW
PULLS EAST AND AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A THIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA PULLS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDING FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE OCCLUDING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE AIR WILL STILL BE MILD BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS TAKING THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT IF IT
DOES MAKE IT NORTH IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS THRU 12Z. VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY DROP TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING A GALE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
AND BE LIGHT TUESDAY AS RIDGING CROSSES THE WATER.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORTON
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/NORTON/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/NORTON/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KGYX 251407 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1007 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS
FOG IS STILL HANGING ON IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND A COUPLE MORE
SPOTS. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
QUICKLY IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE W THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO
E WITH TIME. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
952 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WE WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE THE PAST
FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS DOWNEAST TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL
PULL EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BLUSTERY COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR CIRCULATES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST AS THE LOW
PULLS EAST AND AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A THIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA PULLS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDING FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE OCCLUDING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE AIR WILL STILL BE MILD BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS TAKING THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT IF IT
DOES MAKE IT NORTH IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS THRU 12Z. VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY DROP TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING A GALE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
AND BE LIGHT TUESDAY AS RIDGING CROSSES THE WATER.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORTON
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/NORTON/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/NORTON/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KGYX 251110 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
710 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMP AND SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE W THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO
E WITH TIME. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251110 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
710 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMP AND SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE W THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO
E WITH TIME. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WE WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE THE PAST
FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS DOWNEAST TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL
PULL EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BLUSTERY COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR CIRCULATES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST AS THE LOW
PULLS EAST AND AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A THIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA PULLS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDING FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE OCCLUDING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE AIR WILL STILL BE MILD BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS TAKING THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT IF IT
DOES MAKE IT NORTH IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS THRU 12Z. VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY DROP TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING A GALE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
AND BE LIGHT TUESDAY AS RIDGING CROSSES THE WATER.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KGYX 250922 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
522 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLEARING HAS LED TO SOME HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS ACROSS NH.
HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE
EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS WELL AS ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS DOWNWARD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE W THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO
E WITH TIME. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO
CLIMATE...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250722
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO E WITH TIME. THESE
BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEGRO
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO
CLIMATE...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250611
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
211 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE WILL FINALLY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE THE PAST
FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS DOWNEAST TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL
PULL EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BLUSTERY COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR CIRCULATES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST AS THE LOW
PULLS EAST AND AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A THIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA PULLS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDING FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE OCCLUDING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE AIR WILL STILL BE MILD BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME MUCH COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS TAKING THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT IF IT
DOES MAKE IT NORTH IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS THRU 12Z. VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
LAET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY DROP TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING A GALE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
AND BE LIGHT TUESDAY AS RIDGING CROSSES THE WATER.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KCAR 250412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: CURRENT FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS IS STILL ON TRACK SO
NO CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
SOUTHEAST OF THE SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN
MAINE. THE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL
MEMBER REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT
BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MAINE. THERE WILL BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT
FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW
WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN
BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE
RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING
BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z
TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMIAN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS UNTIL 2 AM.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT
TIME.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO NEARLY 30 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUDA/
MARINE...DUDA/







000
FXUS61 KCAR 250059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
859 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
840 PM UPDATE: RN/SHWRS PERSIST ACROSS SPCLY NERN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID EVE...SO WE DELAYED THE EXIT TMG OF SHWRS FROM THE
REGION BY 3 HRS...COMPRESSING TO A FASTER EXIT OF THE SHWRS FOR
THE LATE TNGT. LASTLY...MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE
LATE NGT WERE MADE TO MSLY UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AND 7 AM
SAT BASED ON OBSVD TEMP TRENDS AT 8 PM THIS EVE FROM THE PRIOR
TEMP FCST AT THIS HR.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
SOUTHEAST OF THE SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN
MAINE. THE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL
MEMBER REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT
BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MAINE. THERE WILL BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT
FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW
WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN
BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE
RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING
BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z
TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 535 PM UPDATE...NW WINDS...PARTICULARLY GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 25 KT OVR OUR OUTER WATER BUOY SITES...SO WE XCHGD THE
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS TO A REGULAR SCA AND POSTED IT TIL AT LEAST
2 AM...AFTWRDS...MOST MODELS DIMINISH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BLO
SCA CRITERIA OVR THE OUTER MZS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL MSLY REMAIN
BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT
TIME.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO NEARLY 30 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS









000
FXUS61 KGYX 250006 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
806 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY IS FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING ADJUSTING POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE MIDCOAST AND OVER THE
TERRAIN. ALSO CLOUD COVER IS HANGING ON STUBBORNLY. DO THINK WE
WILL SEE ENOUGH BREAKS/CLEARING BY MORNING FOR LOWS TO REACH THE
30S AND 40S AS FORECAST...HOWEVER INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS WHERE CLOUD COVER IS THICKER.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE SHOULD HOLD ON TO A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL DESERVED RESPITE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NW WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 40S IN THE NORTH
WITH 50S IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUSION CROSSES MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. COLD
AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. THE EURO REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK CITY AND SEND IT UP
THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE KEEPS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCL IFR...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT. VFR SATURDAY...WITH SCT MVFR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BOTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE NW FACING TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLD. THE CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THE BAYS HAVE HAD THE SCA HEADLINE DROPPED ALTOGETHER.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS MAY REACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 242211
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
611 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
535 PM UPDATE: MOST FCST ELEMENTS NEEDED TO BE UPDATED THRU ALL OF
THE NEAR TERM TO RECONCILE POPS AND WX GRIDS WITH FCST QPF AND
OBSVD RADAR REF IMAGERY. WE BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF ANY PATCHY
FOG OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA FOR LATE TNGT...WITH CLD CVR AND N
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH LIKELY NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PATCHY
FOG. WITH SOME CLRG POSSIBLE LATE OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...WE KEPT
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY OVR WRN VLY AREAS. WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ALSO NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LIGHTER WINDS
WEST LATE TNGT. LASTLY...MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT WERE
MADE TO MSLY UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AND 7 AM SAT BASED ON
OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 PM LATE THIS AFTN.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
SOUTHEAST OF THE SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN
MAINE. THE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL
MEMBER REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT
BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MAINE. THERE WILL BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT
FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW
WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING
MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE
RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING
BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z
TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 535 PM UPDATE...NW WINDS...PARTICULARLY GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 25 KT OVR OUR OUTER WATER BUOY SITES...SO WE XCHGD THE
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS TO A REGULAR SCA AND POSTED IT TIL AT LEAST
2 AM...AFTWRDS...MOST MODELS DIMINISH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BLO
SCA CRITERIA OVR THE OUTER MZS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL MSLY REMAIN
BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT
TIME.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO NEARLY 30 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 241953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY IS FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 18Z...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE SHOULD HOLD ON TO A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WELL DESERVED RESPITE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NW WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 40S IN THE NORTH
WITH 50S IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUSION CROSSES MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. COLD
AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. THE EURO REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK CITY AND SEND IT UP
THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE KEEPS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCL IFR...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT. VFR SATURDAY...WITH SCT MVFR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BOTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE NW FACING TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLD. THE CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THE BAYS HAVE HAD THE SCA HEADLINE DROPPED ALTOGETHER.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS MAY REACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY IS FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 18Z...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE SHOULD HOLD ON TO A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WELL DESERVED RESPITE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NW WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 40S IN THE NORTH
WITH 50S IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUSION CROSSES MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. COLD
AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. THE EURO REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK CITY AND SEND IT UP
THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE KEEPS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCL IFR...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT. VFR SATURDAY...WITH SCT MVFR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BOTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE NW FACING TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLD. THE CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THE BAYS HAVE HAD THE SCA HEADLINE DROPPED ALTOGETHER.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS MAY REACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241831
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
231 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SOUTHEAST OF THE
SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN MAINE. THE
INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL MEMBER REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA
SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN
MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO PULL
TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINE. THERE WILL
BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT
FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW
WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING
MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE
RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING
BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z
TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH 11
PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT TIME.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO NEARLY 30 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NORTON/HASTINGS
MARINE...NORTON/HASTINGS









000
FXUS61 KGYX 241825
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY IS FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 18Z...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE SHOULD HOLD ON TO A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WELL DESERVED RESPITE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NW WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATUS SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 40S IN THE NORTH
WITH 50S IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUSION CROSSES MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. COLD
AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. THE EURO REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK CITY AND SEND IT UP
THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE KEEPS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCL IFR...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT. VFR SATURDAY...WITH SCT MVFR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BOTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE NW FACING TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLD. THE CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THE BAYS HAVE HAD THE SCA HEADLINE DROPPED ALTOGETHER.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS MAY REACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241646
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1238 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE 16Z MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
935 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND POP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY
WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS
STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING
THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN
AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS
ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL
RIVERS ARE AT ACTION STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241609
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1205 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SKYCON...POPS...AND HRLY TEMP GRIDS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SCHEDULE.

SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS
WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE MID 20S AS OF
12 PM TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR NOW...WILL LOOK AT
CONDITIONS AGAIN BEFORE EVENING PACKAGE TO DETERMINE IF THE SCA
CAN BE FURTHER DOWNGRADED TO AN SCA FOR SEAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO 20-25 KT SUSTAINED W/SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS REMAINED UP AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT STARTING
TO COME DOWN. FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KGYX 241342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

935 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND POP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY
WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS
STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING
THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN
AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS
ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL
RIVERS ARE AT ACTION STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241250
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
850 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKYCON...POPS...AND
HRLY TEMP GRIDS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON SCHEDULE. FLOOD
ADVISORIES THAT WERE UP HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NO FLOODING
ISSUES REPORTED IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.

SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS
WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO 20-25 KT SUSTAINED W/SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS REMAINED UP AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT STARTING
TO COME DOWN. FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KGYX 241105 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
705 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND POP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY
WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS
STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING
THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN
AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS
ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL
RIVERS ARE AT ACTION STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE QPF UPWARD THROUGH 12Z TO ACCOUNT WAS
ALREADY FALLEN PER SOME REPORTS COMING IN. EASTPORT IS CLOSING IN
ON 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 48 HRS. RADAR SHOWED A LARGE
AREA NOT SHIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. THERE
IS ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHICH HAS RECEIVED OVER 3.5
INCHES AND CLIMBING. FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY. NO REPORTS OF ANY SERIOUS
FLOODING JUST SOME PONDING ON ROADS AND STANDING WATER. SOME
SMALLER STREAMS ARE APPROACHING BANKFULL.

SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS
WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO 20-25 KT SUSTAINED W/SOME
GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS REMAINED UP AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT STARTING
TO COME DOWN. FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KGYX 240931 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
531 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE TWEAKED POP TO REFLECT
TWO AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS. ONE IN CENTRAL ME...AND
THE OTHER DRIFTING SWD THRU SWRN ME AND SRN NH. MOISTURE FEED WILL
CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL ME THRU THIS MORNING...WHILE THE SRN PCPN
WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY
WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS
STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING
THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN
AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS
ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL
RIVERS ARE AT ACTION STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TODAY.

THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE COD.
THE SATELLITE WV LOOP INDICATED THE LOW TO BE FILLING AND STARTING
TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE LAST FEW FRAMES. RADAR LOOP SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MAINE. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WERE SEEN MOVING WEST FROM NEW
BRUNSWICK ALL THE BACK INTO WESTERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL WERE DOING QUITE WELL AS OF 06Z. 36 HR RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE COME IN W/2-2.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(PISCATAQUIS COUNTY) AND ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING
THE COAST. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FROM A
TRACE ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY TO 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM
CARIBOU TO MILLINOCKET. STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT
RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND
STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SOME GUSTS STILL NEAR 35 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK
TO SCA BY 7 AM W/SUSTAINED WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS WERE UP
THERE AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT THEY WERE STARTING TO COME DOWN.
FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KCAR 240804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TODAY.

THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE COD.
THE SATELLITE WV LOOP INDICATED THE LOW TO BE FILLING AND STARTING
TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE LAST FEW FRAMES. RADAR LOOP SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MAINE. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WERE SEEN MOVING WEST FROM NEW
BRUNSWICK ALL THE BACK INTO WESTERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL WERE DOING QUITE WELL AS OF 06Z. 36 HR RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE COME IN W/2-2.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(PISCATAQUIS COUNTY) AND ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING
THE COAST. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FROM A
TRACE ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY TO 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM
CARIBOU TO MILLINOCKET. STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT
RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND
STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED
W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE
RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY
W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND
40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE
ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.
ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SOME GUSTS STILL NEAR 35 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK
TO SCA BY 7 AM W/SUSTAINED WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS WERE UP
THERE AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT THEY WERE STARTING TO COME DOWN.
FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA SCOTIA.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KGYX 240728
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
328 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES. HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS
IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE
FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS
BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL
BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE
BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED
THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL RIVERS ARE AT ACTION
STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SE OF CAPE COD
STARTING TO MOVE SLOWLY NE. SATELLITE WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS TO
BE THE CASE AS THE LOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF OPENING. RADAR LOOP
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING W W/SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
EMBEDDED. 24 HR TOTALS RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST. LESS AMOUNTS
AS ONE TRAVELS NORTHWARD W/<1" OF RAINFALL. THE HRRR 3KM
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL PER
THE RADAR AS WAS THE 00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN GEM. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS NOW SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT 2 AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO EASTERN MAINE. HRLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KGYX 240215 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING. THIS RAIN SHIELD
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW. CALLS TO COMMUNITIES INDICATE NO FLOODING PROBLEMS OF NOTE...
BUT AS RAIN CONTINUES SMALL STREAMS AND SOME RIVERS WILL REACH
BANKFULL AND MINOR URBAN FLOODING WILL PERSIST. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS/HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
NOT BE EXITING ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLUG OF MOISTURE NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IN A MORE WNW
DIRECTION THAN NNW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MESOMODELS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY MOVING
INTO EASTERN MAINE. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY AND ANY
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING.
ALSO THINK FOG WILL BE VERY LIMITED BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SO HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A 100% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...SOME LOCATIONS LIKE SOUTHERN NH ARE NOT CURRENTLY RECEIVING
PRECIPITATION AND WON`T FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES TO TRY AND REFLECT WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING WITH THE
HELP OF THE WRF/HRRR AND NAM12.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE
FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR
STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER
DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST
IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND
FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR
KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY
BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  BRISK WNW WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS
RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240215 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING. THIS RAIN SHIELD
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW. CALLS TO COMMUNITIES INDICATE NO FLOODING PROBLEMS OF NOTE...
BUT AS RAIN CONTINUES SMALL STREAMS AND SOME RIVERS WILL REACH
BANKFULL AND MINOR URBAN FLOODING WILL PERSIST. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS/HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
NOT BE EXITING ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLUG OF MOISTURE NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IN A MORE WNW
DIRECTION THAN NNW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MESOMODELS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY MOVING
INTO EASTERN MAINE. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY AND ANY
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING.
ALSO THINK FOG WILL BE VERY LIMITED BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SO HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A 100% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...SOME LOCATIONS LIKE SOUTHERN NH ARE NOT CURRENTLY RECEIVING
PRECIPITATION AND WON`T FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES TO TRY AND REFLECT WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING WITH THE
HELP OF THE WRF/HRRR AND NAM12.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE
FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR
STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER
DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST
IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND
FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR
KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY
BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  BRISK WNW WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS
RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240145
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
945 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: LITTLE OR NO CHGS TO POPS...WX AND QPF ATTM...WITH
FCST GRIDS FROM LAST UPDATE LOOKING ON TARGET BASED ON LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY PRESENTATION. OTHERWISE...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU
THE OVRNGT TO UN-MODIFIED FCST LOWS FOR ERLY FRI MORN BASED ON
TRENDS SEEN FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS FROM THE PREV FCST OF HRLY TEMPS
AT THIS HR.

PRIOR DISC: A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
THAT IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

FCST 6 HRLY QPF FOR TNGT THRU FRI WAS RE-DONE WITH POPS BASED ON
THIS QPF DISTRIBUTION RE-CALCULATED...RESULTING IN AREAS WE XPCT
SIG RNFL (WHICH IS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA) HAVING 100 PERCENT
POPS FCST THRU THESE PTNS OF THESE PDS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY INTENSE RN BANDING
MOVG NW FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY LATER THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY MOVG
NWRD INTO CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF NE ME LATER OVRNGT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT TO THIS BAND
BY ERLY FRI MORN...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND SPCLY 12 AND 18Z GFS
DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS MUCH HEAVIER WITH QPF THEN CORRESPONDING
NAM...SREF AND EVEN TWICE THE GFS ENSM QPF OVRNGT INTO FRI. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES AND SPREAD OF THESE SOLUTIONS... WE TRIED TO
TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP/QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS TIME
THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE
AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...RN/VJN









000
FXUS61 KGYX 232240 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SLUG OF MOISTURE NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IN A MORE WNW
DIRECTION THAN NNW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MESOMODELS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY
MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY
AND ANY INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED
WORDING. ALSO THINK FOG WILL BE VERY LIMITED BASED ON THE PRESENCE
OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SO HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A 100% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...SOME LOCATIONS LIKE SOUTHERN NH ARE NOT CURRENTLY
RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AND WON`T FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I HAVE
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO TRY AND REFLECT WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRINGWITH THE HELP OF THE WRF/HRRR AND NAM12.

&&

AT 18Z...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. WATER VAPOR AND GOES INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW
BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ROTATING AROUND THIS
SYSTEM AND ONSHORE INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS AND NOT THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.
THE RAIN WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE
FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR
STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER
DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST
IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND
FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR
KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY
BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  BRISK WNW WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS
RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 232210
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
540 PM UPDATE: FCST 6 HRLY QPF FOR TNGT THRU FRI WAS RE-DONE WITH
POPS BASED ON THIS QPF DISTRIBUTION RE-CALCULATED...RESULTING IN
AREAS WE XPCT SIG RNFL (WHICH IS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA)
HAVING 100 PERCENT POPS FCST THRU THESE PTNS OF THESE PDS. WE ALSO
INTRODUCED ISOLD THUNDER TO DOWNEAST AREAS INTO THIS EVE BASED ON
SAT IMAGERY AND LGTNG DETECTION SHOWING SPORADIC LGTNG STRIKES MOVG
TOWARD DOWNEAST ME FROM THE GULF OF ME. WHATS LEFT OF ELEVATED
CAPE SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TNGT...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS IN
CASE WE NEED TO XTND THIS MENTION LATER INTO THE NGT. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY INTENSE
RN BANDING MOVG NW FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY LATER THIS EVE...THEN
SLOWLY MOVG NWRD INTO CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF NE ME LATER OVRNGT.
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT
TO THIS BAND BY ERLY FRI MORN...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND SPCLY 12
AND 18Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS MUCH HEAVIER WITH QPF THEN
CORRESPONDING NAM...SREF AND EVEN TWICE THE GFS ENSM QPF OVRNGT
INTO FRI. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND SPREAD OF THESE SOLUTIONS...
WE TRIED TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODEL
QPF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS
THRU THE OVRNGT TO UN- MODIFIED FCST LOWS FOR ERLY FRI MORN BASED
ON TRENDS SEEN FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS FROM THE PREV FCST OF HRLY
TEMPS AT THIS HR.

ORGNL DISC: A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
THAT IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED
15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.


SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.


SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...







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