Latest:
 AFDCAR |  AFDGYX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 241026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF HOULTON. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP
AND DEW POINT GRIDS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 241026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF HOULTON. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP
AND DEW POINT GRIDS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 241022 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS MORNING...AS S/WV
TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 240739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240202
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1002 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:45 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...WE DECIDED TO BEEF
UP POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN
BASED ON A LITTLE MORE FCST QPF WITH SHWRS JUST AHEAD OF AN APCHG
COLD FRONT. WE DID NOT GO WITH THE FULL MODEL VALUES OF QPF IN THE
06-12Z TM FRAME...THINKING THAT DRY SUB CLD AIR MAY RESULT IN
SOME INITIAL EVAPORATION OF RNFL...SO WE GO WITH CLOSE TO 0.05
INCHES FOR A MAX ACROSS NE TO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA... WITH
LESSER POPS AND QPF AFT 12Z WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME SUN MORN. OTHERWISE...ONLY VERY MODEST
ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE OVRNGT BASED
ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240202
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1002 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:45 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...WE DECIDED TO BEEF
UP POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN
BASED ON A LITTLE MORE FCST QPF WITH SHWRS JUST AHEAD OF AN APCHG
COLD FRONT. WE DID NOT GO WITH THE FULL MODEL VALUES OF QPF IN THE
06-12Z TM FRAME...THINKING THAT DRY SUB CLD AIR MAY RESULT IN
SOME INITIAL EVAPORATION OF RNFL...SO WE GO WITH CLOSE TO 0.05
INCHES FOR A MAX ACROSS NE TO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA... WITH
LESSER POPS AND QPF AFT 12Z WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME SUN MORN. OTHERWISE...ONLY VERY MODEST
ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE OVRNGT BASED
ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 232234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN MAX/MINS...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE
OVRNGT...SKY CVR...AND POPS TNGT INTO SUN WERE ALL MODIFIED
SOMEWHAT THIS UPDATE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLD CVR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
LAGGING BEHIND WHAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS...SO WE
DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLD CVR AND AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS ABOUT 2
TO 3 HRS.

WITH WINDS SLATED TO DIMINISH AND SFC RHS TO INCREASE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVE HRS...WE OPTED TO CANX THE REMAINING PTN OF
THE RED FLAG WRNG ABOUT 2 HRS ERLY.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 232234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN MAX/MINS...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE
OVRNGT...SKY CVR...AND POPS TNGT INTO SUN WERE ALL MODIFIED
SOMEWHAT THIS UPDATE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLD CVR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
LAGGING BEHIND WHAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS...SO WE
DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLD CVR AND AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS ABOUT 2
TO 3 HRS.

WITH WINDS SLATED TO DIMINISH AND SFC RHS TO INCREASE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVE HRS...WE OPTED TO CANX THE REMAINING PTN OF
THE RED FLAG WRNG ABOUT 2 HRS ERLY.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 232234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN MAX/MINS...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE
OVRNGT...SKY CVR...AND POPS TNGT INTO SUN WERE ALL MODIFIED
SOMEWHAT THIS UPDATE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLD CVR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
LAGGING BEHIND WHAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS...SO WE
DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLD CVR AND AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS ABOUT 2
TO 3 HRS.

WITH WINDS SLATED TO DIMINISH AND SFC RHS TO INCREASE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVE HRS...WE OPTED TO CANX THE REMAINING PTN OF
THE RED FLAG WRNG ABOUT 2 HRS ERLY.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 232234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN MAX/MINS...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE
OVRNGT...SKY CVR...AND POPS TNGT INTO SUN WERE ALL MODIFIED
SOMEWHAT THIS UPDATE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLD CVR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
LAGGING BEHIND WHAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS...SO WE
DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLD CVR AND AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS ABOUT 2
TO 3 HRS.

WITH WINDS SLATED TO DIMINISH AND SFC RHS TO INCREASE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVE HRS...WE OPTED TO CANX THE REMAINING PTN OF
THE RED FLAG WRNG ABOUT 2 HRS ERLY.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST.
SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST.
SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST.
SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST.
SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231846
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY A COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&
$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231846
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY A COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&
$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231557
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1157 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH SMALL
GRAUPEL THAT WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
COLD UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. INITIAL THOUGHTS ON SUNDAY`S FORECAST
SHOWS A DRAMATIC WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT
STILL BREEZY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE...CANCELLED AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY DUE
TO RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 231557
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1157 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH SMALL
GRAUPEL THAT WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
COLD UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. INITIAL THOUGHTS ON SUNDAY`S FORECAST
SHOWS A DRAMATIC WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT
STILL BREEZY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE...CANCELLED AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY DUE
TO RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231539
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1139 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. THIS IS WHERETHE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS BUILDING
A CU FIELD. STAYED CLOSE IN LINE TO THE 06Z NAM12.

HAVE UPPED WIND GUSTS BY A COUPLE KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING LAYER MAY COUNTERACT THAT SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE WIND FIELDS.

RED FLAGS WARNINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED THE LAKES FORECAST. RAISED THE 1 TO 2 FOOT FORECAST
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BASED ON A REPORT OUT ON THE LAKES DURING THE LAST
HOUR OF 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231539
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1139 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. THIS IS WHERETHE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS BUILDING
A CU FIELD. STAYED CLOSE IN LINE TO THE 06Z NAM12.

HAVE UPPED WIND GUSTS BY A COUPLE KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING LAYER MAY COUNTERACT THAT SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE WIND FIELDS.

RED FLAGS WARNINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED THE LAKES FORECAST. RAISED THE 1 TO 2 FOOT FORECAST
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BASED ON A REPORT OUT ON THE LAKES DURING THE LAST
HOUR OF 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
FORECAST...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS BUILDING A CU
FIELD. STAYED CLOSE IN LINE TO THE 06Z NAM12.

HAVE UPPED WIND GUSTS BY A COUPLE KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING LAYER MAY COUNTERACT THAT SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE WIND FIELDS.

RED FLAGS WARNINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED THE LAKES FORECAST. RAISED THE 1 TO 2 FOOT FORECAST
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BASED ON A REPORT OUT ON THE LAKES DURING THE LAST
HOUR OF 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
FORECAST...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS BUILDING A CU
FIELD. STAYED CLOSE IN LINE TO THE 06Z NAM12.

HAVE UPPED WIND GUSTS BY A COUPLE KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING LAYER MAY COUNTERACT THAT SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE WIND FIELDS.

RED FLAGS WARNINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED THE LAKES FORECAST. RAISED THE 1 TO 2 FOOT FORECAST
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BASED ON A REPORT OUT ON THE LAKES DURING THE LAST
HOUR OF 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231334
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS SE
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN PORTAGE AND REPRESENTED THE
2ND LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT CARIBOU ON RECORD. DUE TO
PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW...HAVE SCALED BACK THE RED FLAG WARNING
TO EXCLUDE AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH THE WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THESE AREAS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN A WELL-
MIXED ATMOSPHERE. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE...CANCELLED AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY DUE
TO RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 231334
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS SE
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN PORTAGE AND REPRESENTED THE
2ND LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT CARIBOU ON RECORD. DUE TO
PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW...HAVE SCALED BACK THE RED FLAG WARNING
TO EXCLUDE AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH THE WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THESE AREAS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN A WELL-
MIXED ATMOSPHERE. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE...CANCELLED AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY DUE
TO RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231029 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231029 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231029 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230954
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR AND QUICK GLANCE OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
CARIBOU SHOWS SNOW FALLING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MAINE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH BUT TEMEPEARTURES
WILL LEVEL OFF IF NOT RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUDS.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH BUT TEMEPEARTURES
WILL LEVEL OFF IF NOT RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUDS.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222309
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER
S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH
WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT
MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG
UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR
THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222309
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER
S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH
WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT
MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG
UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR
THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222309
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER
S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH
WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT
MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG
UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR
THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 222309
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER
S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH
WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT
MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG
UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR
THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221843
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
243 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC
WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY
ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE
INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN
MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. WNDS WILL
SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     010.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORTON/BERDES
MARINE...NORTON/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221843
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
243 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC
WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY
ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE
INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN
MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. WNDS WILL
SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     010.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORTON/BERDES
MARINE...NORTON/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...NORTON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221636
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROPPED UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221636
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROPPED UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221636
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROPPED UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221636
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROPPED UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 AM UPDATE: MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 AM UPDATE: MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities