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000
FXUS61 KGYX 012325
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
725 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR ANIMATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
PORTLAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE MESOSCALE MODELS THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO OVERDUE THE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN MAINE.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS...DEW POINT VALUES AND CURRENT TEMPS BASED
ON LASTEST CONDITIONS. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG...ALONG
WITH THE DRIZZLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CAPE COD THIS
AFTERNOON... DIRECTING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND KEEPING SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE GOING OVER NH AND MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHIELD REMAINS OVER CAPE COD TO LONG ISLAND AND THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE NH COAST TO CAPE
ELIZABETH AND INLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE INVERTED TROUGH
FEATURE SHIFTS CLOCKWISE AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS BOSTON. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
PLAIN FOR SEVERAL MILES...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT BUT WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE MORNING THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE
INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO NIL AFTER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND NOON AND
SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME COOLER AIR DOES FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS WILL BE NON ZERO INTERRUPTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN ADDITION...OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS +11
DEGREES C AT 850MB AND CLOUDS INDICATED BY A JETSTREAK ALOFT WILL
KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO CHILLY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING IT
TO BE NEARLY AS COLD AS ONE MODEL SUITE INDICATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA AS
WELL... EXPOSING THE REGION TO SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT
APPEARS ONLY THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL REALLY BE ABLE
TO FEEL THIS AS THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW... KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 AT
THE COAST. SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN FRIDAY
NIGHT... THOUGH MODELS OFTEN BRING THIS IN TOO OFTEN AND TOO EARLY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
AN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE RISING MOTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT... WITH
THE RAIN ARRIVING IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE RAIN AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP. A LITTLE LOWER POP WAS USED IN
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY
OVER WHETHER THE RAIN WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY
HIGH.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WARM/MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT... THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN. LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY... BUT
MORE SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND COULD ACTUALLY WARM COASTAL
AREAS UP TO THE LOW 60S... A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL MEAN GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF RAIN SHOWERS AS MINOR WAVES PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THROUGH
NOON TOMORROW IN SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG...FOR ALL STATIONS.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE 03 TO 13Z TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY BUT COULD SEE MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE IT JUST TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR WAVES
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TOMORROW MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND MAINE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AS WELL. FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FEET AND REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 012325
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
725 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR ANIMATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
PORTLAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE MESOSCALE MODELS THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO OVERDUE THE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN MAINE.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS...DEW POINT VALUES AND CURRENT TEMPS BASED
ON LASTEST CONDITIONS. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG...ALONG
WITH THE DRIZZLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CAPE COD THIS
AFTERNOON... DIRECTING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND KEEPING SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE GOING OVER NH AND MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHIELD REMAINS OVER CAPE COD TO LONG ISLAND AND THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE NH COAST TO CAPE
ELIZABETH AND INLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE INVERTED TROUGH
FEATURE SHIFTS CLOCKWISE AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS BOSTON. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
PLAIN FOR SEVERAL MILES...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT BUT WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE MORNING THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE
INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO NIL AFTER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND NOON AND
SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME COOLER AIR DOES FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS WILL BE NON ZERO INTERRUPTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN ADDITION...OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS +11
DEGREES C AT 850MB AND CLOUDS INDICATED BY A JETSTREAK ALOFT WILL
KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO CHILLY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING IT
TO BE NEARLY AS COLD AS ONE MODEL SUITE INDICATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA AS
WELL... EXPOSING THE REGION TO SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT
APPEARS ONLY THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL REALLY BE ABLE
TO FEEL THIS AS THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW... KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 AT
THE COAST. SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN FRIDAY
NIGHT... THOUGH MODELS OFTEN BRING THIS IN TOO OFTEN AND TOO EARLY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
AN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE RISING MOTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT... WITH
THE RAIN ARRIVING IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE RAIN AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP. A LITTLE LOWER POP WAS USED IN
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY
OVER WHETHER THE RAIN WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY
HIGH.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WARM/MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT... THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN. LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY... BUT
MORE SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND COULD ACTUALLY WARM COASTAL
AREAS UP TO THE LOW 60S... A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL MEAN GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF RAIN SHOWERS AS MINOR WAVES PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THROUGH
NOON TOMORROW IN SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG...FOR ALL STATIONS.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE 03 TO 13Z TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY BUT COULD SEE MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE IT JUST TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR WAVES
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TOMORROW MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND MAINE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AS WELL. FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FEET AND REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 012325
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
725 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR ANIMATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
PORTLAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE MESOSCALE MODELS THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO OVERDUE THE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN MAINE.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS...DEW POINT VALUES AND CURRENT TEMPS BASED
ON LASTEST CONDITIONS. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG...ALONG
WITH THE DRIZZLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CAPE COD THIS
AFTERNOON... DIRECTING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND KEEPING SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE GOING OVER NH AND MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHIELD REMAINS OVER CAPE COD TO LONG ISLAND AND THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE NH COAST TO CAPE
ELIZABETH AND INLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE INVERTED TROUGH
FEATURE SHIFTS CLOCKWISE AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS BOSTON. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
PLAIN FOR SEVERAL MILES...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT BUT WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE MORNING THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE
INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO NIL AFTER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND NOON AND
SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME COOLER AIR DOES FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS WILL BE NON ZERO INTERRUPTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN ADDITION...OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS +11
DEGREES C AT 850MB AND CLOUDS INDICATED BY A JETSTREAK ALOFT WILL
KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO CHILLY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING IT
TO BE NEARLY AS COLD AS ONE MODEL SUITE INDICATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA AS
WELL... EXPOSING THE REGION TO SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT
APPEARS ONLY THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL REALLY BE ABLE
TO FEEL THIS AS THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW... KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 AT
THE COAST. SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN FRIDAY
NIGHT... THOUGH MODELS OFTEN BRING THIS IN TOO OFTEN AND TOO EARLY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
AN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE RISING MOTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT... WITH
THE RAIN ARRIVING IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE RAIN AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP. A LITTLE LOWER POP WAS USED IN
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY
OVER WHETHER THE RAIN WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY
HIGH.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WARM/MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT... THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN. LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY... BUT
MORE SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND COULD ACTUALLY WARM COASTAL
AREAS UP TO THE LOW 60S... A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL MEAN GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF RAIN SHOWERS AS MINOR WAVES PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THROUGH
NOON TOMORROW IN SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG...FOR ALL STATIONS.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE 03 TO 13Z TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY BUT COULD SEE MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE IT JUST TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR WAVES
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TOMORROW MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND MAINE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AS WELL. FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FEET AND REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 012325
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
725 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR ANIMATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
PORTLAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE MESOSCALE MODELS THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO OVERDUE THE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN MAINE.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS...DEW POINT VALUES AND CURRENT TEMPS BASED
ON LASTEST CONDITIONS. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG...ALONG
WITH THE DRIZZLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CAPE COD THIS
AFTERNOON... DIRECTING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND KEEPING SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE GOING OVER NH AND MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHIELD REMAINS OVER CAPE COD TO LONG ISLAND AND THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE NH COAST TO CAPE
ELIZABETH AND INLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE INVERTED TROUGH
FEATURE SHIFTS CLOCKWISE AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS BOSTON. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
PLAIN FOR SEVERAL MILES...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT BUT WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE MORNING THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE
INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO NIL AFTER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND NOON AND
SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME COOLER AIR DOES FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS WILL BE NON ZERO INTERRUPTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN ADDITION...OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS +11
DEGREES C AT 850MB AND CLOUDS INDICATED BY A JETSTREAK ALOFT WILL
KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO CHILLY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING IT
TO BE NEARLY AS COLD AS ONE MODEL SUITE INDICATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA AS
WELL... EXPOSING THE REGION TO SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT
APPEARS ONLY THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL REALLY BE ABLE
TO FEEL THIS AS THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW... KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 AT
THE COAST. SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN FRIDAY
NIGHT... THOUGH MODELS OFTEN BRING THIS IN TOO OFTEN AND TOO EARLY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
AN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE RISING MOTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT... WITH
THE RAIN ARRIVING IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE RAIN AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP. A LITTLE LOWER POP WAS USED IN
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY
OVER WHETHER THE RAIN WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY
HIGH.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WARM/MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT... THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN. LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY... BUT
MORE SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND COULD ACTUALLY WARM COASTAL
AREAS UP TO THE LOW 60S... A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL MEAN GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF RAIN SHOWERS AS MINOR WAVES PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THROUGH
NOON TOMORROW IN SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG...FOR ALL STATIONS.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE 03 TO 13Z TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY BUT COULD SEE MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE IT JUST TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR WAVES
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TOMORROW MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND MAINE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AS WELL. FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FEET AND REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 012214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
614 PM UPDATE...THE CLEARING LINE EXTENDS FROM ABOUT MARS HILL TO
CHAMBERLAIN LAKE AND CONTINUES TO INCH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH. SOME
REFINEMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A NARROW GRADIENT FROM A
CLEAR SKY IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE TO 100 PCT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DECK OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A
LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE AND THE TREND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOR THIS
CLEARING LINE TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH CARIBOU AND PRESQUE
ISLE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE THE DAY`S END. SOUTH OF HOULTON
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST.

THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. NORTH OF HOULTON, WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE AT
LEAST PARTLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH STRATUS
WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE
COAST.

FOR THURSDAY, FOG AND ANY LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN THE
NORTH WITH EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNIER SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND DOMINATES AREA WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST MAY PROVIDE SOME
THICKER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND...FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE COAST WHERE MORE WIND AND CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST. AFTER
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS BURNS OFF FRIDAY MORNING...AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL-DAY CLOUDINESS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO THE OFFSHORE LOW. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONCERN IS
THAT AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THIS OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME
DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HANCOCK...SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 60S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH
DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
CORRIDOR OF RIDGING WILL THEN BRING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WE WILL THEN BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY LARGE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING COOL
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS DOWNEAST AREAS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOR KBHB AND KBGR EXPECT MAINLY MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT
IN LOW STRATUS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY
AS THE CLOUDS BREAK UP. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MVFR LIFT TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE CLEARING IN
THE NORTH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
AS A RESULT AREAS FROM KPQI NORTH SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR DUE
TO VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG IS LOWER FOR KHUL DUE TO THE CLOUDS SO AT
THIS TIME KEPT VIS AT MVFR FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SUNRISE FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE A THREAT FRIDAY MORNING.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IFR CIGS
AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE
AT NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN ISSUE MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THEY WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NE. THESE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER FOR THURSDAY
HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE BY THIS TIME AS WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE SEPTEMBER CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE IS NOW AVAILABLE AT CXUS 51 KCAR OR PWMCLMCAR. THE SUMMARY
IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/MCW
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/MCW
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 012214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
614 PM UPDATE...THE CLEARING LINE EXTENDS FROM ABOUT MARS HILL TO
CHAMBERLAIN LAKE AND CONTINUES TO INCH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH. SOME
REFINEMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A NARROW GRADIENT FROM A
CLEAR SKY IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE TO 100 PCT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DECK OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A
LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE AND THE TREND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOR THIS
CLEARING LINE TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH CARIBOU AND PRESQUE
ISLE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE THE DAY`S END. SOUTH OF HOULTON
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST.

THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. NORTH OF HOULTON, WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE AT
LEAST PARTLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH STRATUS
WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE
COAST.

FOR THURSDAY, FOG AND ANY LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN THE
NORTH WITH EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNIER SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND DOMINATES AREA WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST MAY PROVIDE SOME
THICKER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND...FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE COAST WHERE MORE WIND AND CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST. AFTER
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS BURNS OFF FRIDAY MORNING...AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL-DAY CLOUDINESS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO THE OFFSHORE LOW. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONCERN IS
THAT AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THIS OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME
DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HANCOCK...SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 60S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH
DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
CORRIDOR OF RIDGING WILL THEN BRING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WE WILL THEN BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY LARGE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING COOL
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS DOWNEAST AREAS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOR KBHB AND KBGR EXPECT MAINLY MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT
IN LOW STRATUS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY
AS THE CLOUDS BREAK UP. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MVFR LIFT TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE CLEARING IN
THE NORTH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
AS A RESULT AREAS FROM KPQI NORTH SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR DUE
TO VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG IS LOWER FOR KHUL DUE TO THE CLOUDS SO AT
THIS TIME KEPT VIS AT MVFR FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SUNRISE FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE A THREAT FRIDAY MORNING.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IFR CIGS
AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE
AT NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN ISSUE MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THEY WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NE. THESE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER FOR THURSDAY
HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE BY THIS TIME AS WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE SEPTEMBER CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE IS NOW AVAILABLE AT CXUS 51 KCAR OR PWMCLMCAR. THE SUMMARY
IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/MCW
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/MCW
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 011943
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
343 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON...
DIRECTING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND KEEPING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE GOING
OVER NH AND MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. MOST OF THE RAIN SHIELD REMAINS
OVER CAPE COD TO LONG ISLAND AND THE GULF OF MAINE...BUT STEADY
RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE NH COAST TO CAPE ELIZABETH AND INLAND.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE SHIFTS CLOCKWISE
AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS BOSTON. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
PLAIN FOR SEVERAL MILES...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT BUT WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE MORNING THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE
INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO NIL AFTER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND NOON AND
SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME COOLER AIR DOES FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS WILL BE NON ZERO INTERRUPTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN ADDITION...OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS +11
DEGREES C AT 850MB AND CLOUDS INDICATED BY A JETSTREAK ALOFT WILL
KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO CHILLY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING IT
TO BE NEARLY AS COLD AS ONE MODEL SUITE INDICATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA AS
WELL... EXPOSING THE REGION TO SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT
APPEARS ONLY THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL REALLY BE ABLE
TO FEEL THIS AS THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW... KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 AT
THE COAST. SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN FRIDAY
NIGHT... THOUGH MODELS OFTEN BRING THIS IN TOO OFTEN AND TOO EARLY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
AN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE RISING MOTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT... WITH
THE RAIN ARRIVING IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE RAIN AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP. A LITTLE LOWER POP WAS USED IN
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY
OVER WHETHER THE RAIN WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY
HIGH.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WARM/MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT... THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN. LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY... BUT
MORE SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND COULD ACTUALLY WARM COASTAL
AREAS UP TO THE LOW 60S... A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL MEAN GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF RAIN SHOWERS AS MINOR WAVES PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THROUGH
NOON TOMORROW IN SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG...FOR ALL STATIONS.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE 03 TO 13Z TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY BUT COULD SEE MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE IT JUST TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR WAVES
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TOMORROW MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND MAINE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AS WELL. FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FEET AND REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT BEACHES IN YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. THIS
IMPLIES THAT INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO ENTER THE SURF SHOULD CHECK
WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS FIRST. BE SURE TO SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFE GUARD...AND NEVER ALONE OR AT NIGHT. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION
DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150-152- 154.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011928
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
328 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DECK OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A
LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE AND THE TREND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOR THIS
CLEARING LINE TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH CARIBOU AND PRESQUE
ISLE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE THE DAY`S END. SOUTH OF HOULTON
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST.

THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. NORTH OF HOULTON, WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE AT
LEAST PARTLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH STRATUS
WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE
COAST.

FOR THURSDAY, FOG AND ANY LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN THE
NORTH WITH EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNIER SKIES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND DOMINATES AREA WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST MAY PROVIDE SOME
THICKER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND...FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE COAST WHERE MORE WIND AND CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST. AFTER
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS BURNS OFF FRIDAY MORNING...AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL-DAY CLOUDINESS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO THE OFFSHORE LOW. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONCERN IS
THAT AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THIS OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME
DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HANCOCK...SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 60S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH
DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
CORRIDOR OF RIDGING WILL THEN BRING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WE WILL THEN BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY LARGE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING COOL
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS DOWNEAST AREAS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOR KBHB AND KBGR EXPECT MAINLY MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT
IN LOW STRATUS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY
AS THE CLOUDS BREAK UP. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MVFR LIFT TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE CLEARING IN
THE NORTH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
AS A RESULT AREAS FROM KPQI NORTH SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR DUE
TO VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG IS LOWER FOR KHUL DUE TO THE CLOUDS SO AT
THIS TIME KEPT VIS AT MVFR FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SUNRISE FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE A THREAT FRIDAY MORNING.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IFR CIGS
AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE
AT NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN ISSUE MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THEY WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NE. THESE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER FOR THURSDAY
HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE BY THIS TIME AS WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MCW
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MCW











000
FXUS61 KCAR 011928
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
328 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DECK OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A
LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE AND THE TREND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOR THIS
CLEARING LINE TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH CARIBOU AND PRESQUE
ISLE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE THE DAY`S END. SOUTH OF HOULTON
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST.

THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. NORTH OF HOULTON, WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE AT
LEAST PARTLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH STRATUS
WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE
COAST.

FOR THURSDAY, FOG AND ANY LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN THE
NORTH WITH EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNIER SKIES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND DOMINATES AREA WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST MAY PROVIDE SOME
THICKER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND...FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE COAST WHERE MORE WIND AND CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST. AFTER
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS BURNS OFF FRIDAY MORNING...AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL-DAY CLOUDINESS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO THE OFFSHORE LOW. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONCERN IS
THAT AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THIS OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME
DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HANCOCK...SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 60S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH
DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
CORRIDOR OF RIDGING WILL THEN BRING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WE WILL THEN BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY LARGE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING COOL
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS DOWNEAST AREAS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOR KBHB AND KBGR EXPECT MAINLY MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT
IN LOW STRATUS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY
AS THE CLOUDS BREAK UP. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MVFR LIFT TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE CLEARING IN
THE NORTH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
AS A RESULT AREAS FROM KPQI NORTH SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR DUE
TO VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG IS LOWER FOR KHUL DUE TO THE CLOUDS SO AT
THIS TIME KEPT VIS AT MVFR FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SUNRISE FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE A THREAT FRIDAY MORNING.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IFR CIGS
AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE
AT NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN ISSUE MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THEY WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NE. THESE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER FOR THURSDAY
HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE BY THIS TIME AS WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MCW
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MCW












000
FXUS61 KCAR 011523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF IN
THE NORTH AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THEREFOR, BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH INCLUDING
CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. BASED ON LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS, UPPER
AIR PLOTS, AND RAP DATA MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2PM OR SO. ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE
NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE
BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME
VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.

&&



.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF IN
THE NORTH AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THEREFOR, BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH INCLUDING
CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. BASED ON LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS, UPPER
AIR PLOTS, AND RAP DATA MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2PM OR SO. ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE
NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE
BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME
VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.

&&



.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF IN
THE NORTH AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THEREFOR, BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH INCLUDING
CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. BASED ON LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS, UPPER
AIR PLOTS, AND RAP DATA MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2PM OR SO. ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE
NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE
BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME
VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.

&&



.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF IN
THE NORTH AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THEREFOR, BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH INCLUDING
CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. BASED ON LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS, UPPER
AIR PLOTS, AND RAP DATA MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2PM OR SO. ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE
NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE
BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME
VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.

&&



.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KGYX 011510 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1110 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...AREA OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING INLAND
ALONG WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE OFFSHORE. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT RADAR TRENDS WHICH ARE MATCHING MESOSCALE MODELS WELL...
PARTICULARLY THE WRF. OTHERWISE LOW STRATUS...FOG...AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF
LIFTING.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL
MEANDER EWD TODAY. ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN
ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THRU THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO
NEAR KBDL. THIS IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
FOCUSES MOST OF THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS ONTO SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST
OFF A BLEND OF REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND
NMM. THE RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A
SHARP DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N.

MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS
WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER YET AGAIN.

BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE
SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY
SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.

STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1
TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
WHITES.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF
THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE
DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLEARING THU.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011510 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1110 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...AREA OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING INLAND
ALONG WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE OFFSHORE. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT RADAR TRENDS WHICH ARE MATCHING MESOSCALE MODELS WELL...
PARTICULARLY THE WRF. OTHERWISE LOW STRATUS...FOG...AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF
LIFTING.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL
MEANDER EWD TODAY. ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN
ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THRU THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO
NEAR KBDL. THIS IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
FOCUSES MOST OF THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS ONTO SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST
OFF A BLEND OF REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND
NMM. THE RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A
SHARP DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N.

MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS
WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER YET AGAIN.

BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE
SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY
SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.

STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1
TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
WHITES.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF
THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE
DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLEARING THU.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011510 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1110 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...AREA OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING INLAND
ALONG WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE OFFSHORE. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT RADAR TRENDS WHICH ARE MATCHING MESOSCALE MODELS WELL...
PARTICULARLY THE WRF. OTHERWISE LOW STRATUS...FOG...AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF
LIFTING.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL
MEANDER EWD TODAY. ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN
ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THRU THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO
NEAR KBDL. THIS IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
FOCUSES MOST OF THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS ONTO SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST
OFF A BLEND OF REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND
NMM. THE RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A
SHARP DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N.

MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS
WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER YET AGAIN.

BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE
SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY
SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.

STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1
TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
WHITES.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF
THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE
DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLEARING THU.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011510 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1110 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...AREA OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING INLAND
ALONG WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE OFFSHORE. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT RADAR TRENDS WHICH ARE MATCHING MESOSCALE MODELS WELL...
PARTICULARLY THE WRF. OTHERWISE LOW STRATUS...FOG...AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF
LIFTING.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL
MEANDER EWD TODAY. ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN
ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THRU THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO
NEAR KBDL. THIS IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
FOCUSES MOST OF THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS ONTO SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST
OFF A BLEND OF REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND
NMM. THE RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A
SHARP DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N.

MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS
WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER YET AGAIN.

BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE
SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY
SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.

STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1
TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
WHITES.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF
THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE
DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLEARING THU.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011304
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
904 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0900 AM UPDATE: MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW STRATUS SHOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO BURN OFF THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT THAT THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE NORTH BY AROUND MIDDAY WHILE A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011304
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
904 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0900 AM UPDATE: MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW STRATUS SHOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO BURN OFF THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT THAT THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE NORTH BY AROUND MIDDAY WHILE A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011304
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
904 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0900 AM UPDATE: MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW STRATUS SHOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO BURN OFF THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT THAT THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE NORTH BY AROUND MIDDAY WHILE A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 011304
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
904 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0900 AM UPDATE: MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW STRATUS SHOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO BURN OFF THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT THAT THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE NORTH BY AROUND MIDDAY WHILE A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010957
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND INCREASE CLOUDY
COVER ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND MIST IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
AROOSTOOK COUNTY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SKYCON WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS THE SUNRISES. BECOMING BKN BY MID MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010957
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND INCREASE CLOUDY
COVER ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND MIST IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
AROOSTOOK COUNTY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SKYCON WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS THE SUNRISES. BECOMING BKN BY MID MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010957
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND INCREASE CLOUDY
COVER ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND MIST IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
AROOSTOOK COUNTY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SKYCON WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS THE SUNRISES. BECOMING BKN BY MID MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010957
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG AND INCREASE CLOUDY
COVER ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND MIST IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
AROOSTOOK COUNTY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THAT THE SKYCON WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS THE SUNRISES. BECOMING BKN BY MID MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KGYX 010944 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. TWEAKED A FEW
PARAMETERS TO BETTER MATCH LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL
MEANDER EWD TODAY. ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN
ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THRU THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO
NEAR KBDL. THIS IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
FOCUSES MOST OF THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS ONTO SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST
OFF A BLEND OF REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND
NMM. THE RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A
SHARP DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N.

MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS
WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER YET AGAIN.

BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE
SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY
SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.

STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1
TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
WHITES.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF
THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE
DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLEARING THU.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010944 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. TWEAKED A FEW
PARAMETERS TO BETTER MATCH LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL
MEANDER EWD TODAY. ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN
ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THRU THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO
NEAR KBDL. THIS IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
FOCUSES MOST OF THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS ONTO SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST
OFF A BLEND OF REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND
NMM. THE RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A
SHARP DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N.

MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS
WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER YET AGAIN.

BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE
SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY
SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.

STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1
TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
WHITES.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF
THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE
DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLEARING THU.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010759
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010759
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.

EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG AND AN AREA OF THIN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN MAINE THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN SITES BY MID MRNG...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN
MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL
BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KGYX 010640
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL MEANDER EWD TODAY.
ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY
THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS CLOUD TOP
WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO NEAR KBDL. THIS
IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOCUSES MOST OF
THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS ONTO
SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST OFF A BLEND OF
REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND NMM. THE
RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A SHARP
DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N.

MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS
WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER YET AGAIN.

BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE
SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY
SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.

STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1
TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
WHITES.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF
THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE
DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLEARING THU.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

LEGRO/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010640
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL MEANDER EWD TODAY.
ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY
THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS CLOUD TOP
WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO NEAR KBDL. THIS
IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOCUSES MOST OF
THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS ONTO
SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST OFF A BLEND OF
REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND NMM. THE
RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A SHARP
DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N.

MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS
WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER YET AGAIN.

BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE
SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY
SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.

STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1
TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
WHITES.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF
THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF
INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE
DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLEARING THU.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1222 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 010422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1222 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 010422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1222 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 010422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1222 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 010146
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND BETWEEN
04Z-08Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THE HRRR IS STILL AN
OUTLIER WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE FAST
MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...AS CURRENTLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MAKING INTO
THE SEACOAST OF NH AND PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.  HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010146
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND BETWEEN
04Z-08Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THE HRRR IS STILL AN
OUTLIER WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE FAST
MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...AS CURRENTLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MAKING INTO
THE SEACOAST OF NH AND PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.  HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010146
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND BETWEEN
04Z-08Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THE HRRR IS STILL AN
OUTLIER WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE FAST
MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...AS CURRENTLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MAKING INTO
THE SEACOAST OF NH AND PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.  HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010146
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND BETWEEN
04Z-08Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THE HRRR IS STILL AN
OUTLIER WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE FAST
MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...AS CURRENTLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MAKING INTO
THE SEACOAST OF NH AND PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.  HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 010125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
925 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...
UPPER LOW VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IN WESTERN PA THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK EAST AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE LOW IS MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVE WITH SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS. LOW STRATUS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. THERE IS A SHARP BACK EDGE
TO THE STRATUS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTH. THE CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
TOWARD MORNING...AND AS THE SKY CLEARS WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE PATCHY FOG MAY TO FORM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 010125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
925 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...
UPPER LOW VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IN WESTERN PA THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK EAST AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE LOW IS MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVE WITH SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS. LOW STRATUS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. THERE IS A SHARP BACK EDGE
TO THE STRATUS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTH. THE CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
TOWARD MORNING...AND AS THE SKY CLEARS WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE PATCHY FOG MAY TO FORM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH,
HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH WED MORNING AND IMPROVE TO
MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...ONLY 0.89" OF RAIN THIS MONTH AT BANGOR. IF NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE THE 3RD DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER WAS IN 1929 WHEN ONLY
0.64" OF RAIN FELL.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU WAS ONLY 50F TODAY. THIS IS THE
LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SINCE MAY 12TH.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KGYX 302223
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 302223
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 302223
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 302223
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 302155
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT WHERE A FEW
SPOTS ARE CLOSE TO 60. ALSO, DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES HAS MOVED IN.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 302155
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT WHERE A FEW
SPOTS ARE CLOSE TO 60. ALSO, DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES HAS MOVED IN.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 302155
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT WHERE A FEW
SPOTS ARE CLOSE TO 60. ALSO, DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES HAS MOVED IN.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 302155
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT WHERE A FEW
SPOTS ARE CLOSE TO 60. ALSO, DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES HAS MOVED IN.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 301851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WERE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 301851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WERE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301604
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...ANOTHER MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC..
930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301604
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...ANOTHER MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO
DROPPED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC..
930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 301532
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1132 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: OTHER THAN CONTG PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
FA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN
WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY AGAIN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 11 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE FA FROM THE PREV
FCST TEMP AT 11 AM. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS INTO
THIS EVE REMAINED UNCHGD.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301532
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1132 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: OTHER THAN CONTG PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
FA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN
WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY AGAIN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 11 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE FA FROM THE PREV
FCST TEMP AT 11 AM. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS INTO
THIS EVE REMAINED UNCHGD.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301532
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1132 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: OTHER THAN CONTG PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
FA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN
WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY AGAIN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 11 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE FA FROM THE PREV
FCST TEMP AT 11 AM. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS INTO
THIS EVE REMAINED UNCHGD.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301532
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1132 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: OTHER THAN CONTG PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
FA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN
WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY AGAIN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 11 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE FA FROM THE PREV
FCST TEMP AT 11 AM. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS INTO
THIS EVE REMAINED UNCHGD.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHGS TO THE FCST LATE THIS
MORN WITH PATCHY FOG...DZ AND LOW CLDNSS PERSISTING ACROSS THE FA.
WE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE PATCHY DZ THIS AFTN...BUT FOG SHOULD BE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH BY THIS TM TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST. FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO UNCHGD FCST HI
TEMPS BASED ON DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 9 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE PREV FCST TEMP AT 9 AM.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHGS TO THE FCST LATE THIS
MORN WITH PATCHY FOG...DZ AND LOW CLDNSS PERSISTING ACROSS THE FA.
WE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE PATCHY DZ THIS AFTN...BUT FOG SHOULD BE
DIMINISHED ENOUGH BY THIS TM TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST. FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO UNCHGD FCST HI
TEMPS BASED ON DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSVD 9 AM TEMPS ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE PREV FCST TEMP AT 9 AM.

ORGNL DISC: DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...WINDS AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE PRES GRAD ARND THE CNTR OF THE
SFC HI WEAKENS OVR THE WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST
25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
AFTER 8 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL
LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON






000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301054
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEDGE ANCHORING IN
MORE EXTENDING RIGHT DOWN INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. RADAR SHOWED LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. ADDED
AREAS OF ALONG W/THE DRIZZLE FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. MID OT UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE
CROWN W/36F AT KFVE.

DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.


SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
645 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA OUT THROUGH 10 AM AS 6
FOOT SEAS ARE HOLDING STRONG W/20 KTS SUSTAINED NE WINDS AND GUST
NEAR 25 KTS.

NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST 25+ KTS.
SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST THINKING IS
THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER 8 AM.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL LOWER VSBYS TO
3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON






000
FXUS61 KCAR 300823
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.


SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST 25+ KTS.
SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST THINKING IS
THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS BY 8 AM AND
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE HEADLINE W/THE 7 AM UPDATE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL LOWER VSBYS TO
3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON











000
FXUS61 KCAR 300823
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A
WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A
TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING.
THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND
CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE
50 TO 55.

DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME
DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
.PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN
MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY
SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE
COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB.


SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST 25+ KTS.
SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST THINKING IS
THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS BY 8 AM AND
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE HEADLINE W/THE 7 AM UPDATE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL LOWER VSBYS TO
3 NM OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON












000
FXUS61 KGYX 300709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 300709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300454
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1254 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS BASED ON THE
RADAR. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES IN E CANADA WEDGING
DOWN INTO THE REGION W/A SURFACE TROF ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HIGH. ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR W/SSW FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE FROM
950-800MBS AND A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THIS LAYER. THIS IS INDICATE OF A
DRIZZLE SETUP WHICH IS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVRNGT, SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA.
LOW CLDNSS SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE
MORN...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC
WILL LIKELY HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI
TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300454
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1254 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS BASED ON THE
RADAR. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES IN E CANADA WEDGING
DOWN INTO THE REGION W/A SURFACE TROF ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HIGH. ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR W/SSW FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE FROM
950-800MBS AND A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THIS LAYER. THIS IS INDICATE OF A
DRIZZLE SETUP WHICH IS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVRNGT, SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA.
LOW CLDNSS SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE
MORN...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC
WILL LIKELY HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI
TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KGYX 300126
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
926 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE: LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT
OVER WRN AND NRN NH. PATCHY FOG AND DRZL WILL BE DVLPG OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND LOWERED POPS THRU MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISC:
AT 18Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT TIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SOME IMPROVEMENT...IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL BE AS SFC FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND 500MB LOW TRACKS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. SFC FLOW WILL HOLD NE AND WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH OVER
LABRADOR AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL
STILL PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS. AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPOTTY DZ...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING AS THE COLD AIR LYR DEEPENS...AND THE MIXING WILL
ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN TUE...MAINLY 60 TO
65 IN MOST SPOTS. THE CT VLY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MOST SUNNY AND
THE WARMEST AS THE DOWNSLOPE DRIES THINGS OUT.

ON THU...COMPACT AND WEAK 500MB REX BLOCK IS OVER THE
REGION. AGAIN WILL LIKE SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE P/SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. BY FRIDAY THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND LOW HEAD EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE S FLOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
ON THE SUNNIER OTHER...OTHER THAN CIRRUS LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT...AS IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AND THEN
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE AND SHIFTS NE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY....WHILE MAIN UPPR LVL HEADS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT RAFL INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 12Z EURO EVEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR RUNS AND CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS PRES IN FORM THE S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NE TO
NR 25 KT THROUGH 22Z VCNTY OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT...THEN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG TONIGHT WITH IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IMPROVING
TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN DZ/FG TUE MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KLEB/KHIE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER ON TUE
ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT RESTRICITIONS...COULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS WED
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN FOR THU/FRI. SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WILL LKLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE: INCREASED SEAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SWANNAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD FIT AS SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND
7 FT. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GUSTY NE FLOW PERSISTS WED INTO THU...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA LVLS. SEAS MAY COME UP ABV 5 FT AGAIN ON THU AS SWELL
FROM COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE S MOVES IN. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW
FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
902 PM UPDATE...A VERY MOIST SOUNDING THIS EVENING AT KCAR WITH A
SATURATED LAYER FROM 875-600 MILLIBARS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE
ST JOHN VALLEY. THE NEAR TERM MODELS WOULD HAVE MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
LATE THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY
TO THE L/M 50S DOWN EAST. EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE UPPER 30S IN THE ST JOHN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH M/U 40S FOR MOST DOWN EAST AREAS. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG
RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP
SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...CB/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/VJN/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
902 PM UPDATE...A VERY MOIST SOUNDING THIS EVENING AT KCAR WITH A
SATURATED LAYER FROM 875-600 MILLIBARS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE
ST JOHN VALLEY. THE NEAR TERM MODELS WOULD HAVE MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
LATE THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY
TO THE L/M 50S DOWN EAST. EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE UPPER 30S IN THE ST JOHN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH M/U 40S FOR MOST DOWN EAST AREAS. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG
RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP
SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...CB/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/VJN/HASTINGS





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