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000
FXUS61 KGYX 120038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
738 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOOKED LIKE A MINI-
NORLUN TROUGH THAT FOCUSED THAT BAND OF SNOWFALL. CLEARING SKIES
AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OVERNIGHT.

ALSO...A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
FALL TO 30 BELOW OR LOWER...WITH SOME BUFFER GIVEN TO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE IT MAY COME CLOSE.

525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HEAVY SNOWBAND SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM STANDISH TO WESTBROOK TO SOUTH PORTLAND TO CAPE ELIZABETH. IT
IS CONSTRICTING A BIT BUT ALSO INTENSIFYING AS OF 520 PM. A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 BEFORE THE BAND
FINALLY MOVES OUT. AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 450 PM FOR THIS PARTICULAR
FEATURE AND MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS/SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 112229
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
529 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HEAVY SNOWBAND SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM STANDISH TO WESTBROOK TO SOUTH PORTLAND TO CAPE ELIZABETH. IT
IS CONSTRICTING A BIT BUT ALSO INTENSIFYING AS OF 520 PM. A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 BEFORE THE BAND
FINALLY MOVES OUT. AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 450 PM FOR THIS PARTICULAR
FEATURE AND MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS/SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 112104
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
404 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
...LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
L;ATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 112104
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
404 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
...LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
L;ATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 112007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
307 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THIS REGION EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
AWAY LATER TONIGHT, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SLIDING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A NEW, AND MORE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIKELY SIGNIFICANT NORLUN INVERTED TROUGH SNOW EVENT FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST. QUESTION
IS...WHERE ALONG THE COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY FROM MOUNT
DESERT ISLAND UP THROUGH BANGOR. HOWEVER, DIFFERENT MODELS AND
MODEL ENSEMBLES STILL SAY THIS BAND COULD SET UP ABOUT 75 MILES
EAST OR WEST OF EAST SHORE PENOBSCOT BAY. MODELS HOWEVER ARE
CONVERGING ENOUGH TO A SOLUTION THAT FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO
PUT UP A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT INTO HANCOCK
COUNTY. IT CAN`T BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THE LOCATION OF THIS
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS UNCERTAIN, AND THIS IS THE TYPE OF
EVENT WHERE THERE WILL BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW TOTALS OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. SNOW RATIOS WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH WITH A FLUFFY
LOW WATER CONTENT SNOW...THE TYPE OF SNOW THAT YOU CAN BRUSH OFF
YOUR CAR WITH A BROOM. THIS, COUPLED WITH THE NORTH BREEZE, WILL
ALLOW FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL WHERE THE SNOW ACTUALLY
FALLS.

OTHER STORY IS THE VERY COLD AIR. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
FACTOR ON SUNDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS TO 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH.
COLDEST AIRMASS AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS OF THE SEASON.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY PRECIP FROM THE WKND SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE DEPARTED BY SUN NIGHT,
AND UPR RIDGING MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA. THE MAIN
FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE INTO WED. WHILE MODELS HAVE
BEEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE EXISTENCE OF THIS LOW, THEY
HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF UPR AND SFC
FEATURES. HOWEVER, WITH THE 12Z MODELS, ALL 3 LONG- RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT.

EDITS WERE NEEDED TO THE SUPERBLEND FIRST GUESS, AND WERE MADE
GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 12Z GFS AND CMC RUNS. THE 12Z
ECMWF CONCURRED WHEN IT CAME IN. WITH THE GOOD AGREEMENT, LKLY AND
DEFINITE POPS WERE INTRODUCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUE AM THRU
TUE NIGHT. WITH MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING ON A FURTHER WEST TRACK
THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST, TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP TUE INTO WED. NOW
EXPECTING A CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA
BY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND S-SE
WINDS DRAW WARMER AIR WELL INLAND. AS OF NOW, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES, AND COASTAL FLOODING MAY
BE A CONCERN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ON WED, AND
THURS LOOKS DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF THE BAR HARBOR TO BANGOR AREA...PERHAPS STRETCHING
NORTHWEST TO GREENVILLE. IN THIS AREA, SNOW COULD BRING CONDITIONS
DOWN TO IFR IN THE NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE THE SNOW DOES OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE UP TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KT. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAY EVEN BE
SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY, BUT DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO
GO WITH A WATCH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-
     003-004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ015-016-029.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FOISY
MARINE...BLOOMER/FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 111630
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1130 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A
SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
LIKELY BY THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON
SO FAR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ENCHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES IN. INCREASED SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO NUMEROUS IN
THESE AREAS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW.

ORGNL DISC: WHATS LEFT OF THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SN SHWRS IS
CROSSING INTO NB PROV AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SCT SN SHWRS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. WITH ONLY MDT 925-700MB
INSTABILITY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SN SQLS...BUT WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS OF HEAVIER SN SHWRS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HALF TO FULL INCH OF ADDITIONAL LGT FLUFFY
SNFL FOR SOME LCTNS.

HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE A LITTLE ERLY TDY GIVEN THE TMG OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...RANGING FROM LATE MORNG OVR HE FAR NW ALG THE QB BORDER TO
MIDDAY TO ERLY AFTN FURTHER E. TEMPS WILL THEN FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY REMAINING
NARROW BAND ST LAWRENCE SEA WAY EFFECT SN SHWRS WILL TAPER TO SCT
FLURRIES BY LATE TNGT AS THE LLVL AIR BECOMES TO COLD TO HOLD ANY
MOISTURE...WITH FLURRIES ENDING LAST OVR THE FAR NE BY DAYBREAK
FRI. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW LATE
TNGT INTO FRI MORN AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY EVENING WINDS DURING
THE COLD ADVECTION PHASE...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A WIND CHILL
ADV IN LATER UPDATE. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE COLD
ADVECTION PHASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRECLUDE ISSUING
ANY WIND CHILL ADV FOR THESE PDS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY LEVEL OUT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SUBZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR. TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP MUCH LOWER IN NORTHERN ZONES IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT
MATERIALIZE.

A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND
LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL
RATES. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH NORLUN TROUGHS...THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE IT SETS UP. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER
WEST IN THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST. THESE TROUGHS ARE OFTEN AN
ALL-OR-NOTHING PROPOSITION WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL. FOR
NOW...HAVE TAKEN A COMPOSITE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS REACHING 8-9
INCHES IN COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WITH A SHARP CUTOFF EAST OF
MACHIAS DUE TO HIGH SNOW RATIOS ALONG THE NARROW SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LINE. THE CONCERN IS THAT IT WILL END UP ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY AS THE NAM12 HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH MINIMAL
SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND ALONG THE NARROW INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND LOW 20S ON THE COAST.
WINDS PICK UP LATE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -20 TO -30F BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE
ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES
HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO
THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
COULD GO MUCH LOWER. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS REBOUND ON MONDAY TO THE
TEENS.  THE COAST WILL WARM TO THE LOW 20S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SNOW FROM A MAJOR STORM
EVENT WILL START. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND MOVE UP THE COAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS SOME NEGATIVE TILT. THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OUR GRIDDED FORECAST TOOK AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FROM
MULTIPLE MODELS AND BROUGHT THE LOW INTO THE MIDCOAST TOWARDS
HOULTON ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SEVERAL INCHES OF OVERRUNNING
SNOW FOLLOWED BY A CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY RAIN EXCEPT TOWARDS THE
ALLAGASH WHERE SNOW COULD HOLD THROUGH THE EVENT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST EVENTS OF THE
WINTER AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS WITH VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH A MORE WESTERN TRACK OR
HEAVY SNOW WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK. A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN
IS ANOTHER CONCERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
THE LOW.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH A FLASH FREEZE
POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLG CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH INTERVALS OF VFR CLGS AND BRIEF PDS
OF IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVIER SN SHWRS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BECOME
PREDOMINATE VFR LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS AT BHB
AND BGR ON SATURDAY DUE TO SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR TDY WITH LONG PD SWELL RUNNING
AOB 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS AND AOB 3 FT FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SCA GUSTS OVR ALL WATERS BEGINNING BY ERLY
THIS EVE...CONTG THRU MIDDAY FRI. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AIR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MDT FZG SPY...
REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS DURG THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH FREEZING SPRAY. AN SCA WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW GALE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 111444
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM...OTHER THAN SOME CHANGES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TERM BASED
ON LATEST OBS...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREV
FORECAST. BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST
HRRR/RAP/12Z NAM HAVE FOCUSED POPS A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS SRN NH
AND COASTAL ME. WENT WITH SCT COVERAGE...AS ITS LIKELY SOME SHSN
WILL FORM AC THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE ONE.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD APPROACH SQUALLS AT TIMES...GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND PARTICULAR GOOD HEIGHT FALLS AS THE 500MB TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD YET, BUT
CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR
THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY
SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP
IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIGID  NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 111324
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
824 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A
SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
LIKELY BY THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON
SO FAR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:30 AM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN DAY PARTLY SUNNY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
LATER TODAY AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.

ORGNL DISC: WHATS LEFT OF THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SN SHWRS IS
CROSSING INTO NB PROV AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SCT SN SHWRS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. WITH ONLY MDT 925-700MB
INSTABILITY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SN SQLS...BUT WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS OF HEAVIER SN SHWRS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HALF TO FULL INCH OF ADDITIONAL LGT FLUFFY
SNFL FOR SOME LCTNS.

HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE A LITTLE ERLY TDY GIVEN THE TMG OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...RANGING FROM LATE MORNG OVR HE FAR NW ALG THE QB BORDER TO
MIDDAY TO ERLY AFTN FURTHER E. TEMPS WILL THEN FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY REMAINING
NARROW BAND ST LAWRENCE SEA WAY EFFECT SN SHWRS WILL TAPER TO SCT
FLURRIES BY LATE TNGT AS THE LLVL AIR BECOMES TO COLD TO HOLD ANY
MOISTURE...WITH FLURRIES ENDING LAST OVR THE FAR NE BY DAYBREAK
FRI. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW LATE
TNGT INTO FRI MORN AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY EVENING WINDS DURING
THE COLD ADVECTION PHASE...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A WIND CHILL
ADV IN LATER UPDATE. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE COLD
ADVECTION PHASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRECLUDE ISSUING
ANY WIND CHILL ADV FOR THESE PDS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY LEVEL OUT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SUBZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR. TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP MUCH LOWER IN NORTHERN ZONES IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT
MATERIALIZE.

A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND
LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL
RATES. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH NORLUN TROUGHS...THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE IT SETS UP. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER
WEST IN THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST. THESE TROUGHS ARE OFTEN AN
ALL-OR-NOTHING PROPOSITION WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL. FOR
NOW...HAVE TAKEN A COMPOSITE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS REACHING 8-9
INCHES IN COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WITH A SHARP CUTOFF EAST OF
MACHIAS DUE TO HIGH SNOW RATIOS ALONG THE NARROW SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LINE. THE CONCERN IS THAT IT WILL END UP ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY AS THE NAM12 HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH MINIMAL
SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND ALONG THE NARROW INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND LOW 20S ON THE COAST.
WINDS PICK UP LATE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -20 TO -30F BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE
ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES
HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO
THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
COULD GO MUCH LOWER. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS REBOUND ON MONDAY TO THE
TEENS.  THE COAST WILL WARM TO THE LOW 20S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SNOW FROM A MAJOR STORM
EVENT WILL START. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND MOVE UP THE COAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS SOME NEGATIVE TILT. THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OUR GRIDDED FORECAST TOOK AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FROM
MULTIPLE MODELS AND BROUGHT THE LOW INTO THE MIDCOAST TOWARDS
HOULTON ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SEVERAL INCHES OF OVERRUNNING
SNOW FOLLOWED BY A CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY RAIN EXCEPT TOWARDS THE
ALLAGASH WHERE SNOW COULD HOLD THROUGH THE EVENT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST EVENTS OF THE
WINTER AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS WITH VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH A MORE WESTERN TRACK OR
HEAVY SNOW WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK. A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN
IS ANOTHER CONCERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
THE LOW.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH A FLASH FREEZE
POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLG CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH INTERVALS OF VFR CLGS AND BRIEF PDS
OF IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVIER SN SHWRS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BECOME
PREDOMINATE VFR LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS AT BHB
AND BGR ON SATURDAY DUE TO SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR TDY WITH LONG PD SWELL RUNNING
AOB 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS AND AOB 3 FT FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SCA GUSTS OVR ALL WATERS BEGINNING BY ERLY
THIS EVE...CONTG THRU MIDDAY FRI. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AIR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MDT FZG SPY...
REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS DURG THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH FREEZING SPRAY. AN SCA WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW GALE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 111324
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
824 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A
SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
LIKELY BY THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON
SO FAR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:30 AM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN DAY PARTLY SUNNY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
LATER TODAY AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.

ORGNL DISC: WHATS LEFT OF THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SN SHWRS IS
CROSSING INTO NB PROV AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SCT SN SHWRS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. WITH ONLY MDT 925-700MB
INSTABILITY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SN SQLS...BUT WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS OF HEAVIER SN SHWRS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HALF TO FULL INCH OF ADDITIONAL LGT FLUFFY
SNFL FOR SOME LCTNS.

HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE A LITTLE ERLY TDY GIVEN THE TMG OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...RANGING FROM LATE MORNG OVR HE FAR NW ALG THE QB BORDER TO
MIDDAY TO ERLY AFTN FURTHER E. TEMPS WILL THEN FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY REMAINING
NARROW BAND ST LAWRENCE SEA WAY EFFECT SN SHWRS WILL TAPER TO SCT
FLURRIES BY LATE TNGT AS THE LLVL AIR BECOMES TO COLD TO HOLD ANY
MOISTURE...WITH FLURRIES ENDING LAST OVR THE FAR NE BY DAYBREAK
FRI. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW LATE
TNGT INTO FRI MORN AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY EVENING WINDS DURING
THE COLD ADVECTION PHASE...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A WIND CHILL
ADV IN LATER UPDATE. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE COLD
ADVECTION PHASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRECLUDE ISSUING
ANY WIND CHILL ADV FOR THESE PDS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY LEVEL OUT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SUBZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR. TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP MUCH LOWER IN NORTHERN ZONES IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT
MATERIALIZE.

A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND
LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL
RATES. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH NORLUN TROUGHS...THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE IT SETS UP. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER
WEST IN THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST. THESE TROUGHS ARE OFTEN AN
ALL-OR-NOTHING PROPOSITION WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL. FOR
NOW...HAVE TAKEN A COMPOSITE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS REACHING 8-9
INCHES IN COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WITH A SHARP CUTOFF EAST OF
MACHIAS DUE TO HIGH SNOW RATIOS ALONG THE NARROW SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LINE. THE CONCERN IS THAT IT WILL END UP ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY AS THE NAM12 HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH MINIMAL
SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND ALONG THE NARROW INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND LOW 20S ON THE COAST.
WINDS PICK UP LATE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -20 TO -30F BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE
ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES
HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO
THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
COULD GO MUCH LOWER. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS REBOUND ON MONDAY TO THE
TEENS.  THE COAST WILL WARM TO THE LOW 20S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SNOW FROM A MAJOR STORM
EVENT WILL START. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND MOVE UP THE COAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS SOME NEGATIVE TILT. THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OUR GRIDDED FORECAST TOOK AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FROM
MULTIPLE MODELS AND BROUGHT THE LOW INTO THE MIDCOAST TOWARDS
HOULTON ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SEVERAL INCHES OF OVERRUNNING
SNOW FOLLOWED BY A CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY RAIN EXCEPT TOWARDS THE
ALLAGASH WHERE SNOW COULD HOLD THROUGH THE EVENT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST EVENTS OF THE
WINTER AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS WITH VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH A MORE WESTERN TRACK OR
HEAVY SNOW WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK. A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN
IS ANOTHER CONCERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
THE LOW.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH A FLASH FREEZE
POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLG CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH INTERVALS OF VFR CLGS AND BRIEF PDS
OF IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVIER SN SHWRS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BECOME
PREDOMINATE VFR LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS AT BHB
AND BGR ON SATURDAY DUE TO SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR TDY WITH LONG PD SWELL RUNNING
AOB 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS AND AOB 3 FT FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SCA GUSTS OVR ALL WATERS BEGINNING BY ERLY
THIS EVE...CONTG THRU MIDDAY FRI. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AIR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MDT FZG SPY...
REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS DURG THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH FREEZING SPRAY. AN SCA WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW GALE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KGYX 111234 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
734 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS
OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIGID  NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 111234 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
734 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS
MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS
OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIGID  NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO
SOUTH TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 111038
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
538 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A
SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
LIKELY BY THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON
SO FAR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PATCHY FOG OVR ERN PTNS OF DOWNEAST ME HAS ENDED
OR MOVED E INTO NB PROV. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE
MIDDAY HRS WERE UPDATED BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 AM...WHICH WERE
COLDER THAN THE PRIOR FCST LOWS OVR SOME LCTNS OF NW ME. THIS
RESULTED IN MODIFYING THE PRIOR FCST OF LOW TEMPS POSTED AT 7 AM
IN ORDER TO FACILITATE A MORE REALISTIC WARMING TREND OF TEMPS
LATER THIS MORN. NO OTHER CHGS WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM PTN OF
THE FCST ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: WHATS LEFT OF THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SN SHWRS IS
CROSSING INTO NB PROV AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SCT SN SHWRS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. WITH ONLY MDT 925-700MB
INSTABILITY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SN SQLS...BUT WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS OF HEAVIER SN SHWRS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HALF TO FULL INCH OF ADDITIONAL LGT FLUFFY
SNFL FOR SOME LCTNS.

HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE A LITTLE ERLY TDY GIVEN THE TMG OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...RANGING FROM LATE MORNG OVR HE FAR NW ALG THE QB BORDER TO
MIDDAY TO ERLY AFTN FURTHER E. TEMPS WILL THEN FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY REMAINING
NARROW BAND ST LAWRENCE SEA WAY EFFECT SN SHWRS WILL TAPER TO SCT
FLURRIES BY LATE TNGT AS THE LLVL AIR BECOMES TO COLD TO HOLD ANY
MOISTURE...WITH FLURRIES ENDING LAST OVR THE FAR NE BY DAYBREAK
FRI. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW LATE
TNGT INTO FRI MORN AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY EVENING WINDS DURING
THE COLD ADVECTION PHASE...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A WIND CHILL
ADV IN LATER UPDATE. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE COLD
ADVECTION PHASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRECLUDE ISSUING
ANY WIND CHILL ADV FOR THESE PDS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY LEVEL OUT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SUBZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR. TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP MUCH LOWER IN NORTHERN ZONES IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT
MATERIALIZE.

A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND
LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL
RATES. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH NORLUN TROUGHS...THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE IT SETS UP. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER
WEST IN THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST. THESE TROUGHS ARE OFTEN AN
ALL-OR-NOTHING PROPOSITION WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL. FOR
NOW...HAVE TAKEN A COMPOSITE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS REACHING 8-9
INCHES IN COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WITH A SHARP CUTOFF EAST OF
MACHIAS DUE TO HIGH SNOW RATIOS ALONG THE NARROW SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LINE. THE CONCERN IS THAT IT WILL END UP ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY AS THE NAM12 HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH MINIMAL
SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND ALONG THE NARROW INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND LOW 20S ON THE COAST.
WINDS PICK UP LATE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -20 TO -30F BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE
ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES
HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO
THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
COULD GO MUCH LOWER. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS REBOUND ON MONDAY TO THE
TEENS.  THE COAST WILL WARM TO THE LOW 20S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SNOW FROM A MAJOR STORM
EVENT WILL START. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND MOVE UP THE COAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS SOME NEGATIVE TILT. THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OUR GRIDDED FORECAST TOOK AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FROM
MULTIPLE MODELS AND BROUGHT THE LOW INTO THE MIDCOAST TOWARDS
HOULTON ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SEVERAL INCHES OF OVERRUNNING
SNOW FOLLOWED BY A CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY RAIN EXCEPT TOWARDS THE
ALLAGASH WHERE SNOW COULD HOLD THROUGH THE EVENT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST EVENTS OF THE
WINTER AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS WITH VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH A MORE WESTERN TRACK OR
HEAVY SNOW WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK. A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN
IS ANOTHER CONCERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
THE LOW.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH A FLASH FREEZE
POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLG CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH INTERVALS OF VFR CLGS AND BRIEF PDS
OF IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVIER SN SHWRS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BECOME
PREDOMINATE VFR LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS AT BHB
AND BGR ON SATURDAY DUE TO SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR TDY WITH LONG PD SWELL RUNNING
AOB 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS AND AOB 3 FT FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SCA GUSTS OVR ALL WATERS BEGINNING BY ERLY
THIS EVE...CONTG THRU MIDDAY FRI. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AIR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MDT FZG SPY...
REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS DURG THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH FREEZING SPRAY. AN SCA WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW GALE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 110917
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
417 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A
SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
LIKELY BY THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON
SO FAR ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHATS LEFT OF THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SN SHWRS IS CROSSING INTO NB
PROV AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SCT SN
SHWRS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT. WITH ONLY MDT 925-700MB INSTABILITY...CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SN SQLS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER SEGMENTS OF HEAVIER SN SHWRS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HALF
TO FULL INCH OF ADDITIONAL LGT FLUFFY SNFL FOR SOME LCTNS.

HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE A LITTLE ERLY TDY GIVEN THE TMG OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...RANGING FROM LATE MORNG OVR HE FAR NW ALG THE QB BORDER TO
MIDDAY TO ERLY AFTN FURTHER E. TEMPS WILL THEN FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY REMAINING
NARROW BAND ST LAWRENCE SEA WAY EFFECT SN SHWRS WILL TAPER TO SCT
FLURRIES BY LATE TNGT AS THE LLVL AIR BECOMES TO COLD TO HOLD ANY
MOISTURE...WITH FLURRIES ENDING LAST OVR THE FAR NE BY DAYBREAK
FRI. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW LATE
TNGT INTO FRI MORN...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A WIND CHILL ADV.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY LEVEL OUT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SUBZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR. TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP MUCH LOWER IN NORTHERN ZONES IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT
MATERIALIZE.

A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND
LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL
RATES. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH NORLUN TROUGHS...THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE IT SETS UP. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER
WEST IN THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST. THESE TROUGHS ARE OFTEN AN
ALL-OR-NOTHING PROPOSITION WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL. FOR
NOW...HAVE TAKEN A COMPOSITE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS REACHING 8-9
INCHES IN COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WITH A SHARP CUTOFF EAST OF
MACHIAS DUE TO HIGH SNOW RATIOS ALONG THE NARROW SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LINE. THE CONCERN IS THAT IT WILL END UP ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY AS THE NAM12 HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH MINIMAL
SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND ALONG THE NARROW INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND LOW 20S ON THE COAST.
WINDS PICK UP LATE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -20 TO -30F BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE
ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES
HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO
THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
COULD GO MUCH LOWER. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS REBOUND ON MONDAY TO THE
TEENS.  THE COAST WILL WARM TO THE LOW 20S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SNOW FROM A MAJOR STORM
EVENT WILL START. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND MOVE UP THE COAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS SOME NEGATIVE TILT. THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OUR GRIDDED FORECAST TOOK AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FROM
MULTIPLE MODELS AND BROUGHT THE LOW INTO THE MIDCOAST TOWARDS
HOULTON ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SEVERAL INCHES OF OVERRUNNING
SNOW FOLLOWED BY A CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY RAIN EXCEPT TOWARDS THE
ALLAGASH WHERE SNOW COULD HOLD THROUGH THE EVENT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST EVENTS OF THE
WINTER AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS WITH VERY STRONG FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING. THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH A MORE WESTERN TRACK OR
HEAVY SNOW WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK. A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN
IS ANOTHER CONCERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
THE LOW.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH A FLASH FREEZE
POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLG CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH INTERVALS OF VFR CLGS AND BRIEF PDS
OF IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVIER SN SHWRS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BECOME
PREDOMINATE VFR LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS AT BHB
AND BGR ON SATURDAY DUE TO SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR TDY WITH LONG PD SWELL RUNNING
AOB 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS AND AOB 3 FT FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SCA GUSTS OVR ALL WATERS BEGINNING BY ERLY
THIS EVE...CONTG THRU MIDDAY FRI. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AIR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MDT FZG SPY...
REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS DURG THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH FREEZING SPRAY. AN SCA WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW GALE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF
THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING
FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK
SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL ICHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONNS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIDGED NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO SOUTH
TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF
THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING
FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK
SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL ICHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONNS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIDGED NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO SOUTH
TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THE
WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FNT HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT SOME OF
THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE. PATCHY FREEZING
FOG...OR DEPOSITION ON THE ROADS OUT THERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK
SPOTS THRU MORNING AS A RESULT.

A SECONDARY COLD FNT IS ALREADY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
W. AHEAD OF IT SOME SN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG IT ANY
SN SHOWER MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG LIFT
EVEN IF ONLY IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS SRN ZONES FOR THAT...AND THE HIGHEST POP WAS
PLACED IN THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY SN SHOWERS OR SQUALLS DEVELOP
IN THIS MANNER...AN INCREASE IN POP IS LIKELY AND SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK
S/WV RIDGING SET TO CROSS THE AREA. THE CAA TODAY WILL HAVE SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE WINTER SO FAR.
READINGS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE N...WITH SINGLE DIGITS DOWN
TO THE COAST. RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH GOING FRI...WITH TEENS AND
20S DOING IT FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...AS LOBE OF
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS DOWN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF IT SN
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RAPIDLY COOLING AIR ALOFT
CREATES AN UNSTABLE COLUMN. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNWFL SHOULD BE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AS IT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS BUT MIDCOAST AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL ICHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL LIKELY BACK SNOWFALL WEST INTO WESTERN MAINE AND
POSSIBLY EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY. GFS DEPOSITING AN INCH
OR MORE OF QPF OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MAINLY IN CARIBOU`S AREA. MAY NEED ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FOR FAR EASTERN MID COAST ZONES WHERE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MAINE WILL ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS
ONE WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONNS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
LIGHT POWDERY SNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
MIDCOAST LOCATIONS WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING A LOT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT THIS WILL HARDLY
BUDGE TEMPS WITH READINGS BARELY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH
AND REMAINING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ANOTHER VERY FRIDGED NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO SOUTH
TO 10 BELOW NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODELS STILL CONVERGING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST. SEEING THE GFS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT...BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY START PRECIP AS A MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX POSSIBLY HANGING ON
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LOW PRESURE FORECAST TO PULL AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE OVER THE MIDCOAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING
FG/STRATUS...AND ANOTHER IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FNT. SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FNT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE...AND GUSTY NWLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN AS FIRST COLD FNT IS CROSSING
THE WATERS. A STRONGER SECONDARY FNT CROSSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING GALES TO SRN WATERS...AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS N
OF PORTLAND. AS TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
UP...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIKELY AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND
RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KCAR 110821
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
321 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A
SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
LIKELY BY THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON
SO FAR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHATS LEFT OF THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SN SHWRS IS CROSSING INTO NB
PROV AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SCT SN
SHWRS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT. WITH ONLY MDT 925-700MB INSTABILITY...CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SN SQLS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER SEGMENTS OF HEAVIER SN SHWRS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HALF
TO FULL INCH OF ADDITIONAL LGT FLUFFY SNFL FOR SOME LCTNS.

HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE A LITTLE ERLY TDY GIVEN THE TMG OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...RANGING FROM LATE MORNG OVR HE FAR NW ALG THE QB BORDER TO
MIDDAY TO ERLY AFTN FURTHER E. TEMPS WILL THEN FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY
LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY REMAINING
NARROW BAND ST LAWRENCE SEA WAY EFFECT SN SHWRS WILL TAPER TO SCT
FLURRIES BY LATE TNGT AS THE LLVL AIR BECOMES TO COLD TO HOLD ANY
MOISTURE...WITH FLURRIES ENDING LAST OVR THE FAR NE BY DAYBREAK
FRI. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW LATE
TNGT INTO FRI MORN...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A WIND CHILL ADV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLG CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH INTERVALS OF VFR CLGS AND BRIEF PDS
OF IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVIER SN SHWRS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BECOME
PREDOMINATE VFR LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM:

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR TDY WITH LONG PD SWELL RUNNING
AOB 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS AND AOB 3 FT FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SCA GUSTS OVR ALL WATERS BEGINNING BY ERLY
THIS EVE...CONTG THRU MIDDAY FRI. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AIR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MDT FZG SPY...
REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS DURG THIS TM.

SHORT TERM:

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 110502
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1202 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BACK EDGE OF SN SHWRS ACROSS NRN ME IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK WITH SN SHWRS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY E OF BGR.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND CLD CVR
FOR THE REST OF THE OVRNGT BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN LATEST SAT
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS.

PREV DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 110502
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1202 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BACK EDGE OF SN SHWRS ACROSS NRN ME IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK WITH SN SHWRS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY E OF BGR.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND CLD CVR
FOR THE REST OF THE OVRNGT BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN LATEST SAT
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS.

PREV DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110500 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ADDED SOME FREEZING FOG FOR MIDCOAST ZONES...AS A WEAK WAVE IS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. RELATIVELY MOIST...CALM CONDITIONS THERE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO PERSIST...BUT FORECAST AND
OBS SHOW DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110500 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ADDED SOME FREEZING FOG FOR MIDCOAST ZONES...AS A WEAK WAVE IS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. RELATIVELY MOIST...CALM CONDITIONS THERE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO PERSIST...BUT FORECAST AND
OBS SHOW DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110500 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ADDED SOME FREEZING FOG FOR MIDCOAST ZONES...AS A WEAK WAVE IS
MOVING THRU THE AREA. RELATIVELY MOIST...CALM CONDITIONS THERE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO PERSIST...BUT FORECAST AND
OBS SHOW DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 110257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOPRES CNTRD OVR THE NRN PART OF THE STATE WITH SFC TROF MVG
THRU WRN PORTIONS WL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO AREA THRU 06Z. HV
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH JUST SLGT CHC FOR -SHSN ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT THIS TIME. EXCEPTION WL BE ACRS DOWNEAST AREAS ON THE
NB BORDER. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 110257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOPRES CNTRD OVR THE NRN PART OF THE STATE WITH SFC TROF MVG
THRU WRN PORTIONS WL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO AREA THRU 06Z. HV
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH JUST SLGT CHC FOR -SHSN ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT THIS TIME. EXCEPTION WL BE ACRS DOWNEAST AREAS ON THE
NB BORDER. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 110257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK LOPRES CNTRD OVR THE NRN PART OF THE STATE WITH SFC TROF MVG
THRU WRN PORTIONS WL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO AREA THRU 06Z. HV
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH JUST SLGT CHC FOR -SHSN ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT THIS TIME. EXCEPTION WL BE ACRS DOWNEAST AREAS ON THE
NB BORDER. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 110246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE
FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

945 PM...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT 02Z WITH
TRAILING TROUGH THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO INGEST THE 02Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 110011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO CWA FM THE WEST. WK SFC TROF WL BE SLIDING
ACRS AREA TONIGHT AND ENUF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXISTS TO WRING OUT
LGT -SHSN AT ANY POINT DRG THE NIGHT. UPDATED HRLY T/TD VALUES BUT
THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHGS TO FCST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 110011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO CWA FM THE WEST. WK SFC TROF WL BE SLIDING
ACRS AREA TONIGHT AND ENUF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXISTS TO WRING OUT
LGT -SHSN AT ANY POINT DRG THE NIGHT. UPDATED HRLY T/TD VALUES BUT
THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHGS TO FCST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 110011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO CWA FM THE WEST. WK SFC TROF WL BE SLIDING
ACRS AREA TONIGHT AND ENUF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXISTS TO WRING OUT
LGT -SHSN AT ANY POINT DRG THE NIGHT. UPDATED HRLY T/TD VALUES BUT
THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHGS TO FCST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE
A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE
A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 102312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL LINGER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE
A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 102152
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
452 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 102040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 102030
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPR LVL TROUGH SLOGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC ENERGY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
ONGOING WEAK WAA AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME OCCNL LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...ALTHOUGH PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION. WILL SEE
THE 850 TROUGH SHIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOCAL 500 MB RIDGING INSIDE THE TROUGH...SO THE QUESTION IS IF ANY
SN MAKES IT EWD INTO ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES...BUT ACCUMULATION
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN ALL BUT THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS...MAY SEE A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SN...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...AS A WEAK POCKET OF
ENERGY MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...AND THEN MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT LOWS DROP INTO THE 15-25F RANGE FROM N
TO S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
ON THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE
AREAS...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT /ONE OF SEVERAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/ THRU THE AREA. WITH THE COMPACT 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING
UP AHEAD OF THIS WEAVE...COULD SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THRU
WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A BETTER CHC OF SHSN...MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE MTNS...BUT LIMITED TO AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COMPACT...DOES TILT NEGATIVE AS WELL...AND
MAY SEE SOME SQUALLS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT LOOKS MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE N...PROBABLY DURING THE MORNING....TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS IN GOOD CAA....WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY...BUT SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE
N TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
GRADIENT FINALLY DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY THE MIDCOAST AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR (OF THIS MILD WINTER) WILL
BE UPON US. A STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.

BY MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING
A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ONE
SOLUTION SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PASS WEST OF OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN NH AS SNOW
ENDS...AND CIGS LIFT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN ME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TO BE DECREASING
WITH TIME. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THU MORNING WITH TEMP RESTRICTIONSIN
SHSN THU AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOWERING THE VSBYS INTO LIFR RANGE LATER FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NW WINDS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING BUT NW
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LKLY SEE GALES S OF CASCO BAY AND SCA WINDS ELSEWHERE. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS LATE THU AND NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY...AND FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BITTERCOLD
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA
SMOKE TO FORM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AS ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR PASSES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE PARTICULARLY COLD AND RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 101814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TNGT...BRINGING
HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION
WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND
INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO
FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH ONE LAST
RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 101814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TNGT...BRINGING
HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION
WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND
INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO
FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH ONE LAST
RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 101814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TNGT...BRINGING
HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION
WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND
INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO
FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH ONE LAST
RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 101615
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1115 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NOONTIME HIGH TIDE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS LOW END EVENT.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 101615
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1115 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NOONTIME HIGH TIDE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS LOW END EVENT.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 101615
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1115 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NOONTIME HIGH TIDE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS LOW END EVENT.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 101608
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1108 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 101533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE
LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TNGT...BRINGING
HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION
WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND
INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO
FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH ONE LAST
RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 101045 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
545 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KGYX 101045 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
545 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 101037
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
537 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
525 AM UPDATE: SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR
OVR PTNS OF THE FA...RESULTING IN AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURE. THIS IN TURN RESULTED IN A SIG CHG IN THE CURRENT
OVRNGT LOW AND THE HRLY UPWARD FCST CURVE OF TEMPS FOR LATER THIS
MORN. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM WX ELEMENTS REMAIN THE
SAME FROM THE PREV UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: WITH LEFT OVR LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK S/WV ENERGY
PROPAGATING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WE KEEP CLD AND SCT
FLURRIES MENTION THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SIG S/WV
ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT...BRINGING HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS
OF THE REGION WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL
AROUND AND INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST
OF TWO FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH THE SECOND
ARCTIC FRONT APCHG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VLY OF ERN QB ATTM. HI
TEMPS TDY WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON...WITH ONE LAST RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CLGS WITH BRIEF VFR INTERVALS CAN BE XPCTD FOR THE
TAF SITES TODAY INTO TNGT. MVFR VSBYS AND EVEN BRIEF IFR VSBYS CAN
BE XPCTD WITH SN SHWRS ATTMS...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES DURG THE
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE OPTD TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA HDLNS GIVEN THAT
4-5FT WVS ARE LONG PD SWELL. WITH LARGER WVS XPCTD BY LATE TNGT...
THE DAY CREW CAN ISSUE AN SCA IN A LATER FCST UPDATE. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 101037
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
537 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
525 AM UPDATE: SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR
OVR PTNS OF THE FA...RESULTING IN AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURE. THIS IN TURN RESULTED IN A SIG CHG IN THE CURRENT
OVRNGT LOW AND THE HRLY UPWARD FCST CURVE OF TEMPS FOR LATER THIS
MORN. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM WX ELEMENTS REMAIN THE
SAME FROM THE PREV UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: WITH LEFT OVR LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK S/WV ENERGY
PROPAGATING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WE KEEP CLD AND SCT
FLURRIES MENTION THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SIG S/WV
ENERGY APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT...BRINGING HIGHER POPS OF MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS
OF THE REGION WHERE WE WENT WITH LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL
AROUND AND INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST
OF TWO FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU...WITH THE SECOND
ARCTIC FRONT APCHG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VLY OF ERN QB ATTM. HI
TEMPS TDY WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON...WITH ONE LAST RELATIVELY MILD NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CLGS WITH BRIEF VFR INTERVALS CAN BE XPCTD FOR THE
TAF SITES TODAY INTO TNGT. MVFR VSBYS AND EVEN BRIEF IFR VSBYS CAN
BE XPCTD WITH SN SHWRS ATTMS...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES DURG THE
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE OPTD TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA HDLNS GIVEN THAT
4-5FT WVS ARE LONG PD SWELL. WITH LARGER WVS XPCTD BY LATE TNGT...
THE DAY CREW CAN ISSUE AN SCA IN A LATER FCST UPDATE. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
427 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH LEFT OVR LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK S/WV ENERGY PROPAGATING WSW
TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WE KEEP CLD AND SCT FLURRIES MENTION THRU
THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...BRINGING HIGHER POPS OF
MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE WE WENT WITH
LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND
LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK THU...WITH THE SECOND ARCTIC FRONT APCHG THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VLY OF ERN QB ATTM. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH ONE LAST RELATIVELY MILD
NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CLGS WITH BRIEF VFR INTERVALS CAN BE XPCTD FOR THE
TAF SITES TODAY INTO TNGT. MVFR VSBYS AND EVEN BRIEF IFR VSBYS CAN
BE XPCTD WITH SN SHWRS ATTMS...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES DURG THE
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE OPTD TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA HDLNS GIVEN THAT
4-5FT WVS ARE LONG PD SWELL. WITH LARGER WVS XPCTD BY LATE TNGT...
THE DAY CREW CAN ISSUE AN SCA IN A LATER FCST UPDATE. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 100851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING
UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA ON THE WAA SIDE...AND
COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE LARGER FLOW...WX WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED.

ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.

UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100535
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE
FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND
FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS
OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST
OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST.

PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 100319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1019 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR UPDATES TO BUMP POPS UP THRU 06Z AS IR ENHANCEMENT IS
OCCURRING OVR FAR NE ZONES AS ONE LAST REMNANT S/WV SCOOTS THRU.
NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM AS HRLY T GRIDS STILL LOOK TO BE
REASONABLE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN
SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU
02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID
TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY
BY 20Z WED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 100251
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPS
HAVE PLUMMETED SO MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
MANY OF THE CURRENT TEMPS WERE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DROP DOWN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH A FEW MORE
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH READINGS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT AS A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH
SHARPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE SNOWFALL THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IT WILL STILL BE A DRY SNOW
BUT NOT AS DRY AS MONDAYS SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A 35 DEGREE READING ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FIRMLY UNDER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE
HORIZON... BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT INTERESTING THOUGH AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ITS LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MINUS TEN TO MINUS TWENTY DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING AS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
UP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN`T GONE ANYWHERE SO
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS AT TAF SITES IN THE LONG
TERM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT LARGE WAVES IN LONG PERIOD
SWELL ARE STILL A THREAT. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN OUT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES. THE BAYS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WILL THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
STATEMENT GOES THROUGH ONLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER A SMALL CRAFT OR GALE WARNING
ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 35-40KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SPLASH-OVER
ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE BEACHES OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IN
PORTLAND WILL OCCUR AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 100251
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPS
HAVE PLUMMETED SO MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
MANY OF THE CURRENT TEMPS WERE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DROP DOWN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH A FEW MORE
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH READINGS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT AS A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH
SHARPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE SNOWFALL THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IT WILL STILL BE A DRY SNOW
BUT NOT AS DRY AS MONDAYS SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A 35 DEGREE READING ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FIRMLY UNDER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE
HORIZON... BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT INTERESTING THOUGH AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ITS LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MINUS TEN TO MINUS TWENTY DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING AS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
UP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN`T GONE ANYWHERE SO
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS AT TAF SITES IN THE LONG
TERM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT LARGE WAVES IN LONG PERIOD
SWELL ARE STILL A THREAT. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN OUT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES. THE BAYS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WILL THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
STATEMENT GOES THROUGH ONLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER A SMALL CRAFT OR GALE WARNING
ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 35-40KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SPLASH-OVER
ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE BEACHES OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IN
PORTLAND WILL OCCUR AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 100251
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPS
HAVE PLUMMETED SO MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
MANY OF THE CURRENT TEMPS WERE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DROP DOWN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH A FEW MORE
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH READINGS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT AS A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH
SHARPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE SNOWFALL THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IT WILL STILL BE A DRY SNOW
BUT NOT AS DRY AS MONDAYS SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A 35 DEGREE READING ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FIRMLY UNDER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE
HORIZON... BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT INTERESTING THOUGH AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ITS LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MINUS TEN TO MINUS TWENTY DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING AS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
UP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN`T GONE ANYWHERE SO
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

LONG TERM...EXPECT ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS AT TAF SITES IN THE LONG
TERM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT LARGE WAVES IN LONG PERIOD
SWELL ARE STILL A THREAT. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN OUT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES. THE BAYS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WILL THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
STATEMENT GOES THROUGH ONLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER A SMALL CRAFT OR GALE WARNING
ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 35-40KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SPLASH-OVER
ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE BEACHES OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IN
PORTLAND WILL OCCUR AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE



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