Latest:
 AFDCAR |  AFDGYX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 041836
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE COAST LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041836
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE COAST LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041836
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE COAST LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041836
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE COAST LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041832
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041832
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041832
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041832
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041832
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041832
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041705
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
105 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERNA AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SET FORECAST UP
BEFORE THINGS GET BUSY WITH TSTMS. AT THIS TIME CU FIELD IN NRN
NEW ENGLAND IS QUICKLY BECOMING AGITATED...AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE
ALREADY IN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL CARRY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...GRADUALLY BUILDING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH
A WIND THREAT. THETA-E AXIS IS BUILDING INTO SRN NH AND FAR SWRN
ME...THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST TODAY.
LIKEWISE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX WILL EXIST
IN THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...KIMBLE/MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041705
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
105 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERNA AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SET FORECAST UP
BEFORE THINGS GET BUSY WITH TSTMS. AT THIS TIME CU FIELD IN NRN
NEW ENGLAND IS QUICKLY BECOMING AGITATED...AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE
ALREADY IN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL CARRY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...GRADUALLY BUILDING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH
A WIND THREAT. THETA-E AXIS IS BUILDING INTO SRN NH AND FAR SWRN
ME...THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST TODAY.
LIKEWISE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX WILL EXIST
IN THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...KIMBLE/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041705
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
105 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERNA AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SET FORECAST UP
BEFORE THINGS GET BUSY WITH TSTMS. AT THIS TIME CU FIELD IN NRN
NEW ENGLAND IS QUICKLY BECOMING AGITATED...AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE
ALREADY IN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL CARRY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...GRADUALLY BUILDING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH
A WIND THREAT. THETA-E AXIS IS BUILDING INTO SRN NH AND FAR SWRN
ME...THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST TODAY.
LIKEWISE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX WILL EXIST
IN THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...KIMBLE/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041529 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1129 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SET FORECAST UP
BEFORE THINGS GET BUSY WITH TSTMS. AT THIS TIME CU FIELD IN NRN
NEW ENGLAND IS QUICKLY BECOMING AGITATED...AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE
ALREADY IN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL CARRY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...GRADUALLY BUILDING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH
A WIND THREAT. THETA-E AXIS IS BUILDING INTO SRN NH AND FAR SWRN
ME...THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST TODAY.
LIKEWISE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX WILL EXIST
IN THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041529 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1129 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SET FORECAST UP
BEFORE THINGS GET BUSY WITH TSTMS. AT THIS TIME CU FIELD IN NRN
NEW ENGLAND IS QUICKLY BECOMING AGITATED...AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE
ALREADY IN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL CARRY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...GRADUALLY BUILDING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH
A WIND THREAT. THETA-E AXIS IS BUILDING INTO SRN NH AND FAR SWRN
ME...THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST TODAY.
LIKEWISE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX WILL EXIST
IN THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041529 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1129 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SET FORECAST UP
BEFORE THINGS GET BUSY WITH TSTMS. AT THIS TIME CU FIELD IN NRN
NEW ENGLAND IS QUICKLY BECOMING AGITATED...AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE
ALREADY IN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL CARRY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...GRADUALLY BUILDING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH
A WIND THREAT. THETA-E AXIS IS BUILDING INTO SRN NH AND FAR SWRN
ME...THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST TODAY.
LIKEWISE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX WILL EXIST
IN THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041529 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1129 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SET FORECAST UP
BEFORE THINGS GET BUSY WITH TSTMS. AT THIS TIME CU FIELD IN NRN
NEW ENGLAND IS QUICKLY BECOMING AGITATED...AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE
ALREADY IN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL CARRY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...GRADUALLY BUILDING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH
A WIND THREAT. THETA-E AXIS IS BUILDING INTO SRN NH AND FAR SWRN
ME...THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST TODAY.
LIKEWISE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX WILL EXIST
IN THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 041328
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
928 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...
ADDED SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS TO COASTAL ZONES WITH WV MVG UP FM CAPE
COD ALONG WEAK SFC TROF. PATCHY FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACRS
CWA THIS MRNG. JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS AND DWPTS. WL CONT TO
MONITOR FOR SVR POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AS NEW GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF VLIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE
OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041328
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
928 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...
ADDED SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS TO COASTAL ZONES WITH WV MVG UP FM CAPE
COD ALONG WEAK SFC TROF. PATCHY FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACRS
CWA THIS MRNG. JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS AND DWPTS. WL CONT TO
MONITOR FOR SVR POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AS NEW GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF VLIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE
OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041317 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT LARGE WIND
PRODUCING MCS SLIDING JUST S OF MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAS. TSTMS
THIS MORNING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WATERS.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041317 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT LARGE WIND
PRODUCING MCS SLIDING JUST S OF MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAS. TSTMS
THIS MORNING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WATERS.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041317 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT LARGE WIND
PRODUCING MCS SLIDING JUST S OF MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAS. TSTMS
THIS MORNING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WATERS.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041317 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT LARGE WIND
PRODUCING MCS SLIDING JUST S OF MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAS. TSTMS
THIS MORNING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WATERS.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041317 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT LARGE WIND
PRODUCING MCS SLIDING JUST S OF MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAS. TSTMS
THIS MORNING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WATERS.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041317 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT LARGE WIND
PRODUCING MCS SLIDING JUST S OF MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAS. TSTMS
THIS MORNING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WATERS.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 041001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
601 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...PATCHY DENSE GROUND AND RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
LED TO VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. THE WIND IS ALSO VERY LIGHT AND IN
SOME AREAS CALM. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS BY 8 AM.
A REVIEW OF ALL THE WEB CAMS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATES THAT THE
FOG IS PATCHY AND NOT WIDESPREAD IN NATURE AND HAVE HANDLED IT
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH 8 AM AND NOT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EARLY MORNING FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF VLIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE
OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 041001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
601 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...PATCHY DENSE GROUND AND RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
LED TO VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. THE WIND IS ALSO VERY LIGHT AND IN
SOME AREAS CALM. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS BY 8 AM.
A REVIEW OF ALL THE WEB CAMS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATES THAT THE
FOG IS PATCHY AND NOT WIDESPREAD IN NATURE AND HAVE HANDLED IT
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH 8 AM AND NOT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EARLY MORNING FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF VLIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN PATCHY FOG. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE
OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040730
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 040705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG.  BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 040705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG.  BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG.  BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG.  BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG.  BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR
THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE
YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF
THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD
POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN
MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON
THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO
IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE
WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW
ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT
NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG.  BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH,
SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040445
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1240 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INGEST
THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS
YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN THE MID
LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040445
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1240 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INGEST
THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS
YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN THE MID
LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040445
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1240 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INGEST
THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS
YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN THE MID
LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040445
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1240 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INGEST
THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS
YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN THE MID
LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 040421
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1222 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN REGION NORTH.
THERE IS A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WALDO COUNTY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO
THE POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF GUSTY WIND...BUT WILL KEEP HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX
HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS
AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT BATCH OF STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME,
CAN WORK UP OVR THE SAME AREA. TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO
THE M80S WITH HIGHER DWPTS PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE
DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE U50S CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE
INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN THIS AREA
ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND MID-
LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK
AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS
HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND.
EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. FURTHER SOUTH OF
THIS LINE AT HUL MVFR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH. BGR MAY SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE IT. IFR
AT BHB OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS/FOG ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/DUMONT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040421
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1222 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN REGION NORTH.
THERE IS A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WALDO COUNTY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO
THE POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF GUSTY WIND...BUT WILL KEEP HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX
HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS
AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT BATCH OF STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME,
CAN WORK UP OVR THE SAME AREA. TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO
THE M80S WITH HIGHER DWPTS PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE
DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE U50S CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE
INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN THIS AREA
ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND MID-
LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK
AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS
HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND.
EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. FURTHER SOUTH OF
THIS LINE AT HUL MVFR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH. BGR MAY SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE IT. IFR
AT BHB OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS/FOG ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/DUMONT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 040143
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
943 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
943 PM UPDATE...ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE
AT 9 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST HOUR AND HAVE REMOVED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY, AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 2 HOURS UNTIL 1145 PM. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS THRU THE NORTHEAST.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT
BATCH OF STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME, CAN WORK UP OVR THE
SAME AREA. TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO THE M80S WITH HIGHER
DWPTS PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE DWPTS ARE STILL IN
THE U50S CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG
LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN THIS AREA ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND MID-LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK
AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS
HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND.
EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. FURTHER SOUTH OF
THIS LINE AT HUL MVFR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH. BGR MAY SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE IT. IFR
AT BHB OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS/FOG ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/DUMONT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 040143
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
943 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
943 PM UPDATE...ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE
AT 9 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST HOUR AND HAVE REMOVED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY, AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 2 HOURS UNTIL 1145 PM. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS THRU THE NORTHEAST.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT
BATCH OF STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME, CAN WORK UP OVR THE
SAME AREA. TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO THE M80S WITH HIGHER
DWPTS PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE DWPTS ARE STILL IN
THE U50S CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG
LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN THIS AREA ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND MID-LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK
AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS
HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND.
EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. FURTHER SOUTH OF
THIS LINE AT HUL MVFR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH. BGR MAY SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE IT. IFR
AT BHB OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS/FOG ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/DUMONT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040116
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
916 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
01Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR SEVERE THUNDEERSTORM WATCH
WHICH HAS EXPIRED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040116
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
916 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
01Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR SEVERE THUNDEERSTORM WATCH
WHICH HAS EXPIRED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 032341
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
741 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...
ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION CONTS TO WORK ACRS THE SAME AREA OF
CWA. LINE EXTNDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO ERN NY BUT MAY FINALLY BE
SHOWING HINTS OF SHOVING EAST. UPDATE TO GRIDS TO EXTND CAT POPS
OVR NWRN ZONES THRU 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL S/WV FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT
INTO CANADA, THO IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTNDD BY ANOTHER HR OR SO.
AIRMASS HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY WORKED OVR BUT ENUF FRCG EXISTS AT
UPR LVLS TO GENERATE THUNDER AND HVY RAIN. SVR THREAT CONTS UNTIL
01Z WHEN WATCH EXPIRES. QUITE A BIT OF WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED ACRS NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY WITH A 54KT GUST HERE AT THE
OFFICE THIS AFTN. AFT 06Z EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER PCPN TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS. JUST TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS THRU THE NORTHEAST. MAY
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT BATCH OF
STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME, CAN WORK UP OVR THE SAME AREA.
TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO THE M80S WITH HIGHER DWPTS
PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE U50S
CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED IN THIS AREA ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX AND MID-LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT
BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE
MODELS TREND.  EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. FURTHER SOUTH OF
THIS LINE AT HUL MVFR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH. BGR MAY SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE IT. IFR
AT BHB OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS/FOG ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...FARRAR/DUMONT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 032341
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
741 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...
ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION CONTS TO WORK ACRS THE SAME AREA OF
CWA. LINE EXTNDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO ERN NY BUT MAY FINALLY BE
SHOWING HINTS OF SHOVING EAST. UPDATE TO GRIDS TO EXTND CAT POPS
OVR NWRN ZONES THRU 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL S/WV FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT
INTO CANADA, THO IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTNDD BY ANOTHER HR OR SO.
AIRMASS HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY WORKED OVR BUT ENUF FRCG EXISTS AT
UPR LVLS TO GENERATE THUNDER AND HVY RAIN. SVR THREAT CONTS UNTIL
01Z WHEN WATCH EXPIRES. QUITE A BIT OF WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED ACRS NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY WITH A 54KT GUST HERE AT THE
OFFICE THIS AFTN. AFT 06Z EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER PCPN TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS. JUST TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS THRU THE NORTHEAST. MAY
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT BATCH OF
STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME, CAN WORK UP OVR THE SAME AREA.
TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO THE M80S WITH HIGHER DWPTS
PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE U50S
CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED IN THIS AREA ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX AND MID-LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT
BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE
MODELS TREND.  EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. FURTHER SOUTH OF
THIS LINE AT HUL MVFR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH. BGR MAY SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE IT. IFR
AT BHB OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS/FOG ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...FARRAR/DUMONT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 032341
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
741 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...
ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION CONTS TO WORK ACRS THE SAME AREA OF
CWA. LINE EXTNDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO ERN NY BUT MAY FINALLY BE
SHOWING HINTS OF SHOVING EAST. UPDATE TO GRIDS TO EXTND CAT POPS
OVR NWRN ZONES THRU 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL S/WV FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT
INTO CANADA, THO IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTNDD BY ANOTHER HR OR SO.
AIRMASS HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY WORKED OVR BUT ENUF FRCG EXISTS AT
UPR LVLS TO GENERATE THUNDER AND HVY RAIN. SVR THREAT CONTS UNTIL
01Z WHEN WATCH EXPIRES. QUITE A BIT OF WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED ACRS NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY WITH A 54KT GUST HERE AT THE
OFFICE THIS AFTN. AFT 06Z EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER PCPN TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS. JUST TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS THRU THE NORTHEAST. MAY
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT BATCH OF
STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME, CAN WORK UP OVR THE SAME AREA.
TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO THE M80S WITH HIGHER DWPTS
PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE U50S
CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED IN THIS AREA ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX AND MID-LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT
BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE
MODELS TREND.  EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. FURTHER SOUTH OF
THIS LINE AT HUL MVFR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH. BGR MAY SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE IT. IFR
AT BHB OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS/FOG ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...FARRAR/DUMONT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 032341
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
741 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...
ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION CONTS TO WORK ACRS THE SAME AREA OF
CWA. LINE EXTNDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO ERN NY BUT MAY FINALLY BE
SHOWING HINTS OF SHOVING EAST. UPDATE TO GRIDS TO EXTND CAT POPS
OVR NWRN ZONES THRU 03Z TONIGHT UNTIL S/WV FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT
INTO CANADA, THO IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTNDD BY ANOTHER HR OR SO.
AIRMASS HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY WORKED OVR BUT ENUF FRCG EXISTS AT
UPR LVLS TO GENERATE THUNDER AND HVY RAIN. SVR THREAT CONTS UNTIL
01Z WHEN WATCH EXPIRES. QUITE A BIT OF WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED ACRS NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY WITH A 54KT GUST HERE AT THE
OFFICE THIS AFTN. AFT 06Z EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER PCPN TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS. JUST TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS THRU THE NORTHEAST. MAY
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT BATCH OF
STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME, CAN WORK UP OVR THE SAME AREA.
TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO THE M80S WITH HIGHER DWPTS
PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE U50S
CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED IN THIS AREA ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX AND MID-LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT
BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE
MODELS TREND.  EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. FURTHER SOUTH OF
THIS LINE AT HUL MVFR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH. BGR MAY SEE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE IT. IFR
AT BHB OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS/FOG ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...FARRAR/DUMONT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 032029
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
429 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS THRU THE NORTHEAST. MAY
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT BATCH OF
STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME, CAN WORK UP OVR THE SAME AREA.
TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO THE M80S WITH HIGHER DWPTS
PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE U50S
CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED IN THIS AREA ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX AND MID-LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT
BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE
MODELS TREND.  EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS LINE OF STORMS MOVES
THROUGH TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY FVE AND CAR. PQI AND
HUL IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL. BGR
EXPECTED TO SEE JUST VCTS THIS EVENING. IFR EXPECTED IN STRATUS
AND FOG IN WAKE OF STORMS DUE TO WET GROUND IMPROVING AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...FARRAR/DUMONT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 032029
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
429 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS WL SHIFT EAST AS STRONG VORT MAX HELPING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION LIFTS INTO CANADA. LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUAL DVLPMNT OF STORMS AS H5 JET LIFTS THRU THE NORTHEAST. MAY
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR AN HR OR SO THIS AFTN/EVNG UNTIL NEXT BATCH OF
STORMS, LOCATED OVR VT AT THIS TIME, CAN WORK UP OVR THE SAME AREA.
TEMPS ACRS DOWNEAST HV WARMED INTO THE M80S WITH HIGHER DWPTS
PRESENT IN THE M60S. UP ACRS NRN MAINE DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE U50S
CUTTING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THE INSTABILITY. HWVR BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED IN THIS AREA ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX AND MID-LVL JET.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER THRU 06Z BFR ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. WL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR STORMS THRU 01Z CORRELATED WITH WHEN THE SVR
WATCH EXPIRES.

AT THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE STATE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ROLLING
INTO COASTAL ZONES AND HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE COAST THIS
AFTN THROUGHOUT THE OVRNGT AS SRLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITSELF.

CDFNT APPCHS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN DVLPNG AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST
WHICH WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CAPE VALUES WL BE SIMILAR
TO TDA RANGING FM 1000-1500 JOULES ACRS THE SOUTH MINUS COASTAL
ZONES. HV GONE WITH LKLY POPS FOR DOWNEAST ZONES FM 18Z-22Z TUE DUE
TO FRCG ALONG FRONT AND ASSOC S/WV MVG ACRS. HV WORDED IT AS GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN SVR WORDING BY LATER SHIFTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DISPERSE ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFT 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL VARIETY...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION AND -2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHTS. SOME AREAS WILL BE LUCKY
TO HIT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY NOON...ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DISAGREEMENT
BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE TRACK AND HANDLING OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS CAMP IS WEAK
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE WAVE AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
COME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN THAT THE ECMWF IS HAS BEEN STRONG WITH THE WAVE. SOMETHING TO
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT TO SEE WHICH WAY THE
MODELS TREND.  EITHER WAY...WEEKEND ISN`T LOOKING TO BE THE BEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS LINE OF STORMS MOVES
THROUGH TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY FVE AND CAR. PQI AND
HUL IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL. BGR
EXPECTED TO SEE JUST VCTS THIS EVENING. IFR EXPECTED IN STRATUS
AND FOG IN WAKE OF STORMS DUE TO WET GROUND IMPROVING AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD. OFF-
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVES 2-3 FEET FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...FARRAR/DUMONT
MARINE...FARRAR/DUMONT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 032021
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
421 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
20Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INTO CHESHIRE AND
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE UNTIL 9 PM. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 032021
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
421 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
20Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INTO CHESHIRE AND
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE UNTIL 9 PM. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031413 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1013 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MID MORNING SEES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAVORED WARM SPOTS IN SRN
NH AND SWRN ME. COUPLED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STILL
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS TIED TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BACK ACROSS WRN NY.

NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL A LATER THREAT FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS INITIATION WILL DELAY UNTIL FORCING ARRIVES.
HOWEVER...A CONCERN IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
PREFRONTAL TROF...COULD LEAD TO SOME CELLS FIRING FURTHER E THAN
SOME GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. IN FACT A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS DO HAVE TSTMS BUILDING OVER NH IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
PERIOD. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 PLUS
KTS...AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS SUPPORTING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
WILL LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORM OR CLUSTER OF
STORMS. ANY ISOLATED CELL THAT CAN ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
INCLUDES A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST
OF ME AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAND. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT GRADUALLY
AS HEATING INCREASES THRU THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
COOS NH AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031413 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1013 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MID MORNING SEES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAVORED WARM SPOTS IN SRN
NH AND SWRN ME. COUPLED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STILL
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS TIED TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BACK ACROSS WRN NY.

NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL A LATER THREAT FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS INITIATION WILL DELAY UNTIL FORCING ARRIVES.
HOWEVER...A CONCERN IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
PREFRONTAL TROF...COULD LEAD TO SOME CELLS FIRING FURTHER E THAN
SOME GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. IN FACT A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS DO HAVE TSTMS BUILDING OVER NH IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
PERIOD. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 PLUS
KTS...AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS SUPPORTING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
WILL LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORM OR CLUSTER OF
STORMS. ANY ISOLATED CELL THAT CAN ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
INCLUDES A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST
OF ME AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAND. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT GRADUALLY
AS HEATING INCREASES THRU THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
COOS NH AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031413 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1013 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MID MORNING SEES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAVORED WARM SPOTS IN SRN
NH AND SWRN ME. COUPLED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STILL
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS TIED TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BACK ACROSS WRN NY.

NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL A LATER THREAT FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS INITIATION WILL DELAY UNTIL FORCING ARRIVES.
HOWEVER...A CONCERN IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
PREFRONTAL TROF...COULD LEAD TO SOME CELLS FIRING FURTHER E THAN
SOME GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. IN FACT A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS DO HAVE TSTMS BUILDING OVER NH IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
PERIOD. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 PLUS
KTS...AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS SUPPORTING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
WILL LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORM OR CLUSTER OF
STORMS. ANY ISOLATED CELL THAT CAN ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
INCLUDES A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST
OF ME AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAND. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT GRADUALLY
AS HEATING INCREASES THRU THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
COOS NH AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 031353
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...
TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE AS TEMPS ARE WARMING
QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED UNDER SRLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES. WINDS HV
INCREASED AND ARE BEGINNING TO GUST FM THE SOUTH THUS HV BOOSTED
WIND SPEEDS UP. SHOWERS HV DVLPD BACK ACRS ERN QUEBEC FROM THE
GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE DOWN TO MONTREAL AND WL SPREAD EAST THRU THE
DAY. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEAD VORT MAX AND FRCG FM H7-H5
JET OF 50KTS.

THINKING RMNS THE SAME WITH REGARD TO SVR WX DVLPMNT THIS AFTN.
EXPECT A TROF OF LOPRES PER ALL HIRES MODELS TO DVLP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 21Z. AIRMASS WL DESTABILIZE WITH CAPES
RANGING FM 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF ARND 40KTS.
MAIN SVR THREAT LOOKS TO EXIST OVR NW ZONES AS OF THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY
WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND THEN INTO WESTERN MAINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40
KT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA TUE. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD TURN STRONG
OR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STABLE IT REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WED
KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL FROM
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS 65 TO 70 OVER NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC CONTINUES EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE THROUGH
QUEBEC FRI AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO START
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE.
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR WED-FRI...BUT WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR ESPECIALLY WED IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
AND THUS THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/CB
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 031011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
611 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY
WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND THEN INTO WESTERN MAINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40
KT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA TUE. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD TURN STRONG
OR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STABLE IT REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WED
KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL FROM
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS 65 TO 70 OVER NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC CONTINUES EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE THROUGH
QUEBEC FRI AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO START
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE.
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR WED-FRI...BUT WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR ESPECIALLY WED IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
AND THUS THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 031011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
611 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY
WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND THEN INTO WESTERN MAINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40
KT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA TUE. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD TURN STRONG
OR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STABLE IT REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WED
KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL FROM
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS 65 TO 70 OVER NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC CONTINUES EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE THROUGH
QUEBEC FRI AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO START
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE.
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR WED-FRI...BUT WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR ESPECIALLY WED IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
AND THUS THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030806
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY
WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND THEN INTO WESTERN MAINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40
KT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA TUE. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD TURN STRONG
OR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STABLE IT REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WED
KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL FROM
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS 65 TO 70 OVER NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC CONTINUES EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE THROUGH
QUEBEC FRI AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO START
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE.
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR WED-FRI...BUT WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR ESPECIALLY WED IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
AND THUS THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030806
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY
WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND THEN INTO WESTERN MAINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40
KT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA TUE. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD TURN STRONG
OR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STABLE IT REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WED
KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL FROM
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS 65 TO 70 OVER NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC CONTINUES EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE THROUGH
QUEBEC FRI AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO START
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE.
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR WED-FRI...BUT WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR ESPECIALLY WED IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
AND THUS THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030806
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY
WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND THEN INTO WESTERN MAINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40
KT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA TUE. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD TURN STRONG
OR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STABLE IT REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WED
KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL FROM
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS 65 TO 70 OVER NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC CONTINUES EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE THROUGH
QUEBEC FRI AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO START
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE.
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR WED-FRI...BUT WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR ESPECIALLY WED IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
AND THUS THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030806
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
406 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY
WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND THEN INTO WESTERN MAINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40
KT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA TUE. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD TURN STRONG
OR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STABLE IT REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WED
KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL FROM
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS 65 TO 70 OVER NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC CONTINUES EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE THROUGH
QUEBEC FRI AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO START
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE.
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR WED-FRI...BUT WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR ESPECIALLY WED IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
AND THUS THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1202 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT...OTHER THAN USUAL ADJUSTMENT OF T/TD FOR CURRENT
OBS...DECIDED TO SCALE BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY /SEE BELOW/.

PREVIOUSLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY
INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE
OVERLY DENSE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW
POINTS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS...SCALED BACK
POPS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF MONDAY...KEEPING THE MORNING DRY...AND
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR FAR NRN AND WRN ZONES WHERE CHC
POPS MOVE IN MID AFTERNOON...GIVEN LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.

PREVIOUS...ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT
WE HOLD THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME.
THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1202 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT...OTHER THAN USUAL ADJUSTMENT OF T/TD FOR CURRENT
OBS...DECIDED TO SCALE BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY /SEE BELOW/.

PREVIOUSLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY
INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE
OVERLY DENSE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW
POINTS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS...SCALED BACK
POPS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF MONDAY...KEEPING THE MORNING DRY...AND
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR FAR NRN AND WRN ZONES WHERE CHC
POPS MOVE IN MID AFTERNOON...GIVEN LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.

PREVIOUS...ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT
WE HOLD THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME.
THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1202 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT...OTHER THAN USUAL ADJUSTMENT OF T/TD FOR CURRENT
OBS...DECIDED TO SCALE BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY /SEE BELOW/.

PREVIOUSLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY
INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE
OVERLY DENSE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW
POINTS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS...SCALED BACK
POPS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF MONDAY...KEEPING THE MORNING DRY...AND
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR FAR NRN AND WRN ZONES WHERE CHC
POPS MOVE IN MID AFTERNOON...GIVEN LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.

PREVIOUS...ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT
WE HOLD THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME.
THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1202 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT...OTHER THAN USUAL ADJUSTMENT OF T/TD FOR CURRENT
OBS...DECIDED TO SCALE BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY /SEE BELOW/.

PREVIOUSLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY
INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE
OVERLY DENSE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW
POINTS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS...SCALED BACK
POPS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF MONDAY...KEEPING THE MORNING DRY...AND
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR FAR NRN AND WRN ZONES WHERE CHC
POPS MOVE IN MID AFTERNOON...GIVEN LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.

PREVIOUS...ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT
WE HOLD THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME.
THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 030220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1020 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 030220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1020 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 030220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1020 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD THEN BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030008
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
808 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE NOW LARGELY EXITED OR DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD THEN
BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN
TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030008
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
808 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE NOW LARGELY EXITED OR DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CWA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABV NORMAL.
LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW NW ZONES WL LKLY BE CAPPED UNTIL CLOSE TO
18Z BFR TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO DROP WITH APPCH OF H5 TROF. CIN WL
SLOWLY ERODE FM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCTD
TSTMS TO WORK WEST BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES IN WMSECTOR WITH STRONG MID-LVL JET EXPECTED HELPING
TO ORGANIZE ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DVLP TOMORROW AFTN.
QUESTION IS WHAT WL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS CDFNT RMNS WELL
BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z NAM AND HIRES MODELS INDICATE A TROF OF
LOPRES DVLPNG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z TUE WHICH MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SVR WX WITH
40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HV CONTD MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ADVERTISEMENT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN QUESTION OF HOW
LKLY CELLS WL DVLP DRG THE AFTN AND HOW QUICKLY CAP WL ERODE.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HV TO INTRODUCE SVR WORDING FOR LATE AFTN
TOMORROW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BRING TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA. THE ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RESPITE IN
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
WRN ZONES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEMI PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTING INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A WEAK
COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
SOUTH OF EASTERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL AND
SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD THEN
BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA MOST OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN
TO APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SWRLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WINDS MAY INDUCE WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 022339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
739 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ASIDE FROM A FEW DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE WEST...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS. OTHER THAN A
FEW TEMP TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY INLAND FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE OVERLY DENSE
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW POINTS...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW
THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT WE HOLD
THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE...ANY
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities