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000
FXUS61 KGYX 231504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO RETURNED AS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO RETURNED AS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO RETURNED AS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO RETURNED AS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 231330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY EXITED THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE WHILE PART TWO OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROVIDE A RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE QPF FORECAST TO SHOW MORE PRECIP FOR THESE AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AFTER THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

TOOK ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SNOW SITUATION FOR TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM CARIBOU
TOWARDS GREENVILLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS ABOVE 1000 FT
ELEVATION COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES WHILE LOWER TERRAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE MAY JUST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH QPF TONIGHT IN THIS COLDER NW PART OF THE
STATE TO JUSTIFY HIGHER ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY EXITED THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE WHILE PART TWO OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROVIDE A RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE QPF FORECAST TO SHOW MORE PRECIP FOR THESE AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AFTER THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

TOOK ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SNOW SITUATION FOR TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM CARIBOU
TOWARDS GREENVILLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS ABOVE 1000 FT
ELEVATION COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES WHILE LOWER TERRAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE MAY JUST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH QPF TONIGHT IN THIS COLDER NW PART OF THE
STATE TO JUSTIFY HIGHER ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231242
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
842 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231242
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
842 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL JUST
ABOUT TO THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER AT THIS TIME. UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION
SO LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ALSO
TRANSITIONED THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SHOWERS AT THIS POINT SINCE
ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERY IN NATURE
UNTIL STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
LATEST RAINFALL DATA FROM HYDROVIEW SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THE PAST SIX HOURS WAS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH
AROUND ONE-HALF /0.50/ TO SIX-TENTHS /0.60/ OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS THE PAST SIX HOURS RANGED FROM
ABOUT A QUARTER /0.25/ TO THREE-TENTHS /0.30/ OF AN INCH. SOME
MINOR RISES WERE SHOWING UP ON THE AREA RIVERS BUT ALL RIVERS WERE
WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS TODAY.
VISIBILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE WERE DOWN TO ABOUT
1 MILE AT BAR HARBOR SO ADDED AREAS OF FOG DOWNEAST AND PATCHY FOG
UP NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LASTLY...HAVE RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY A FEW DEGREES ALL AREAS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS HAVING NOT FALLEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL JUST
ABOUT TO THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER AT THIS TIME. UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION
SO LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ALSO
TRANSITIONED THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SHOWERS AT THIS POINT SINCE
ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERY IN NATURE
UNTIL STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
LATEST RAINFALL DATA FROM HYDROVIEW SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THE PAST SIX HOURS WAS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH
AROUND ONE-HALF /0.50/ TO SIX-TENTHS /0.60/ OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS THE PAST SIX HOURS RANGED FROM
ABOUT A QUARTER /0.25/ TO THREE-TENTHS /0.30/ OF AN INCH. SOME
MINOR RISES WERE SHOWING UP ON THE AREA RIVERS BUT ALL RIVERS WERE
WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS TODAY.
VISIBILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE WERE DOWN TO ABOUT
1 MILE AT BAR HARBOR SO ADDED AREAS OF FOG DOWNEAST AND PATCHY FOG
UP NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LASTLY...HAVE RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY A FEW DEGREES ALL AREAS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS HAVING NOT FALLEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230731
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230731
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230731
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230731
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW









000
FXUS61 KGYX 230703
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.




&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230703
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.




&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CURTIS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 230400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE GULF
OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW WILL MEANDER IN
THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF SOUTH OF
THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AS WELL
AS MESONET.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WENT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT INITIALLY WITH LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING TO FALL INTO SUCH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD IN THE
GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION GETS THROWN BACK INTO NH AND MAINE AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL QPF DURING THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN MAINE. THAT SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME... BUT WE THINK THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST IS GOOD FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS...IT WILL
NOT SEEM LIKE A NICE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WRAP AROUND FORCING
GETS. EITHER WAY...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER?

SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE MID COAST. ELSEWHERE...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BUT NW WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE
DESPITE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW DRIFTING EAST IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AIDS IN THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MOST AREAS FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING WARMTH/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES BY.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR... CONDITIONS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW PRIMARILY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LARGER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN SPOTS. THIS TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS COME TO AN END THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35KT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A MARINE AIR MASS AND THUS
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT
GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FINALLY DROP HEADLINES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEHIND THE NEXT LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 230400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE GULF
OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW WILL MEANDER IN
THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF SOUTH OF
THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AS WELL
AS MESONET.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WENT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT INITIALLY WITH LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING TO FALL INTO SUCH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD IN THE
GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION GETS THROWN BACK INTO NH AND MAINE AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL QPF DURING THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN MAINE. THAT SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME... BUT WE THINK THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST IS GOOD FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS...IT WILL
NOT SEEM LIKE A NICE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WRAP AROUND FORCING
GETS. EITHER WAY...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER?

SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE MID COAST. ELSEWHERE...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BUT NW WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE
DESPITE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW DRIFTING EAST IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AIDS IN THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MOST AREAS FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING WARMTH/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES BY.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR... CONDITIONS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW PRIMARILY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LARGER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN SPOTS. THIS TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS COME TO AN END THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35KT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A MARINE AIR MASS AND THUS
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT
GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FINALLY DROP HEADLINES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEHIND THE NEXT LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KCAR 230209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: WE DID MOVE UP THE TMG OF HIGHER POPS BY AN HR OR
TWO THIS EVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF SHOWING FASTER FILLING OF
RN REF ACROSS THE FA THEN PREV FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS
OVRNGT WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 9 PM OBS...WITH FCST LOWS
POSTED AT 6 AM MON ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY A DEG OR TWO ACROSS THE N
HLF OF THE FA FROM THE PREV FCST LOW...BASED ON OBSVD-PREV FCST
TEMP TRENDS AT 9 PM.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO
STARTING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...CN/MCW








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: WE DID MOVE UP THE TMG OF HIGHER POPS BY AN HR OR
TWO THIS EVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF SHOWING FASTER FILLING OF
RN REF ACROSS THE FA THEN PREV FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS
OVRNGT WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 9 PM OBS...WITH FCST LOWS
POSTED AT 6 AM MON ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY A DEG OR TWO ACROSS THE N
HLF OF THE FA FROM THE PREV FCST LOW...BASED ON OBSVD-PREV FCST
TEMP TRENDS AT 9 PM.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO
STARTING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...CN/MCW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 222251
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
651 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE: NO CHGS SLATED FOR POP...WX AND QPF GRIDS THRU
TNGT THIS UPDATE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN BAND OF RN FROM
W TO E INTO THE FA LOOKING TO BE ON TARGET WITH THE FORECAST BASED
ON LATEST RADAR REF. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
FROM OBSVD 6 PM OBS... FOR NOW....TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6
AM MON. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TEMPS TRENDS OVR THE FEW HRS TO
BETTER DETERMINE WHETHER FCST LOWS NEED TO BE UPDATED.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO
STARTING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...CN/MCW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 222251
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
651 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE: NO CHGS SLATED FOR POP...WX AND QPF GRIDS THRU
TNGT THIS UPDATE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN BAND OF RN FROM
W TO E INTO THE FA LOOKING TO BE ON TARGET WITH THE FORECAST BASED
ON LATEST RADAR REF. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
FROM OBSVD 6 PM OBS... FOR NOW....TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6
AM MON. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TEMPS TRENDS OVR THE FEW HRS TO
BETTER DETERMINE WHETHER FCST LOWS NEED TO BE UPDATED.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO
STARTING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...CN/MCW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 222053
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
453 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW
HYDROLOGY...NORCROSS/MCW










000
FXUS61 KCAR 222053
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
453 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW
HYDROLOGY...NORCROSS/MCW











000
FXUS61 KGYX 221934
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING
TO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW
WILL MEANDER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE OFF SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WENT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT INITIALLY WITH LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING TO FALL INTO SUCH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD IN THE
GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION GETS THROWN BACK INTO NH AND MAINE AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL QPF DURING THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN MAINE. THAT SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME... BUT WE THINK THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST IS GOOD FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS...IT WILL
NOT SEEM LIKE A NICE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WRAP AROUND FORCING
GETS. EITHER WAY...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER?

SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE MID COAST. ELSEWHERE...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BUT NW WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE
DESPITE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW DRIFTING EAST IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AIDS IN THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MOST AREAS FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING WARMTH/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES BY.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR... CONDITIONS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW PRIMARILY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LARGER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN SPOTS. THIS TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS COME TO AN END THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35KT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A MARINE AIR MASS AND THUS
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT
GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FINALLY DROP HEADLINES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEHIND THE NEXT LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221934
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING
TO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW
WILL MEANDER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE OFF SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WENT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT INITIALLY WITH LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING TO FALL INTO SUCH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD IN THE
GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION GETS THROWN BACK INTO NH AND MAINE AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL QPF DURING THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN MAINE. THAT SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME... BUT WE THINK THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST IS GOOD FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS...IT WILL
NOT SEEM LIKE A NICE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WRAP AROUND FORCING
GETS. EITHER WAY...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER?

SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE MID COAST. ELSEWHERE...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BUT NW WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE
DESPITE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW DRIFTING EAST IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AIDS IN THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MOST AREAS FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING WARMTH/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES BY.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR... CONDITIONS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW PRIMARILY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LARGER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN SPOTS. THIS TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS COME TO AN END THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35KT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A MARINE AIR MASS AND THUS
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT
GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FINALLY DROP HEADLINES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEHIND THE NEXT LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221934
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING
TO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW
WILL MEANDER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE OFF SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WENT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT INITIALLY WITH LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING TO FALL INTO SUCH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD IN THE
GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION GETS THROWN BACK INTO NH AND MAINE AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL QPF DURING THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN MAINE. THAT SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME... BUT WE THINK THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST IS GOOD FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS...IT WILL
NOT SEEM LIKE A NICE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WRAP AROUND FORCING
GETS. EITHER WAY...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER?

SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE MID COAST. ELSEWHERE...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BUT NW WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE
DESPITE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW DRIFTING EAST IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AIDS IN THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MOST AREAS FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING WARMTH/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES BY.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR... CONDITIONS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW PRIMARILY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LARGER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN SPOTS. THIS TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS COME TO AN END THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35KT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A MARINE AIR MASS AND THUS
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT
GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FINALLY DROP HEADLINES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEHIND THE NEXT LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221934
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING
TO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW
WILL MEANDER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE OFF SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WENT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT INITIALLY WITH LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING TO FALL INTO SUCH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD IN THE
GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION GETS THROWN BACK INTO NH AND MAINE AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL QPF DURING THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN MAINE. THAT SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME... BUT WE THINK THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST IS GOOD FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS...IT WILL
NOT SEEM LIKE A NICE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WRAP AROUND FORCING
GETS. EITHER WAY...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER?

SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE MID COAST. ELSEWHERE...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BUT NW WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE
DESPITE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW DRIFTING EAST IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AIDS IN THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MOST AREAS FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING WARMTH/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES BY.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR... CONDITIONS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW PRIMARILY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LARGER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN SPOTS. THIS TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS COME TO AN END THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35KT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A MARINE AIR MASS AND THUS
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT
GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FINALLY DROP HEADLINES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEHIND THE NEXT LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KCAR 221652
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY WILL DRAW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOSTLY INTERIOR
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST
EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/
A VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS. STRONG SCA
CONDS WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG
LOW PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU
WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LEVELS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
BTWN 1-2 INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR
E AND NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE
AMOUNTS...SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT
IN RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
LARGER RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER
RESPONDING RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL
WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221652
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY WILL DRAW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOSTLY INTERIOR
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST
EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/
A VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS. STRONG SCA
CONDS WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG
LOW PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU
WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LEVELS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
BTWN 1-2 INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR
E AND NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE
AMOUNTS...SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT
IN RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
LARGER RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER
RESPONDING RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL
WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221652
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY WILL DRAW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOSTLY INTERIOR
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST
EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/
A VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS. STRONG SCA
CONDS WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG
LOW PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU
WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LEVELS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
BTWN 1-2 INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR
E AND NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE
AMOUNTS...SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT
IN RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
LARGER RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER
RESPONDING RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL
WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221652
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY WILL DRAW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOSTLY INTERIOR
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST
EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/
A VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS. STRONG SCA
CONDS WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG
LOW PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU
WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LEVELS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
BTWN 1-2 INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR
E AND NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE
AMOUNTS...SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT
IN RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
LARGER RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER
RESPONDING RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL
WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221456
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY WILL DRAW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
NOW MOVING EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
LOW. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST
EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/
A VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS. STRONG SCA
CONDS WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG
LOW PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU
WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LEVELS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
BTWN 1-2 INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR
E AND NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE
AMOUNTS...SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT
IN RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
LARGER RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER
RESPONDING RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL
WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW
HYDROLOGY...KHW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 221456
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY WILL DRAW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
NOW MOVING EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
LOW. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST
EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/
A VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS. STRONG SCA
CONDS WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG
LOW PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU
WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LEVELS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
BTWN 1-2 INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR
E AND NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE
AMOUNTS...SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT
IN RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
LARGER RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER
RESPONDING RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL
WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW
HYDROLOGY...KHW







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221303 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
903 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING GOING
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
DATA. SLOWED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES A BIT. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN NH WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD ENTER SOONEST...PROBABLY BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

7 AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO










000
FXUS61 KGYX 221303 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
903 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING GOING
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
DATA. SLOWED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES A BIT. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN NH WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD ENTER SOONEST...PROBABLY BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

7 AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO











000
FXUS61 KGYX 221302 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
903 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING GOING
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
DATA. SLOWED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES A BIT. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN NH WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD ENTER SOONEST...PROBABLY BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

7 AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 221302 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
903 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING GOING
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
DATA. SLOWED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES A BIT. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN NH WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD ENTER SOONEST...PROBABLY BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

7 AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 221302 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
903 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING GOING
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
DATA. SLOWED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES A BIT. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN NH WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD ENTER SOONEST...PROBABLY BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

7 AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 221302 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
903 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING GOING
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
DATA. SLOWED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES A BIT. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN NH WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD ENTER SOONEST...PROBABLY BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

7 AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 221119 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
719 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO






000
FXUS61 KGYX 221119 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
719 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO






000
FXUS61 KGYX 221119 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
719 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO






000
FXUS61 KGYX 221119 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
719 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND
POP...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO






000
FXUS61 KCAR 221031
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
631 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD WESTERN MAINE BY LATE TODAY PUSHING THE FRONT
BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES BACK NORTH.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN BY LATE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TO START ALL TERMINALS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL) AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS
(KBGR/KBHB) THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS COULD INCREASE TO 4 TO 6
FT BY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THUS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS MARGINAL
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN SCA FOR SEAS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE
NEXT CREW RE-EVALUATE THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE SCA
FOR SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/ A
VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS.  STRONG SCA CONDS
WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG LOW
PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. LEVELS
ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN STEADILY
FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BTWN 1-2
INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR E AND
NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE AMOUNTS...
SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN
RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR LARGER
RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL WILL DEPEND
ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...
ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 221031
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
631 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD WESTERN MAINE BY LATE TODAY PUSHING THE FRONT
BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES BACK NORTH.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN BY LATE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TO START ALL TERMINALS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL) AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS
(KBGR/KBHB) THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS COULD INCREASE TO 4 TO 6
FT BY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THUS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS MARGINAL
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN SCA FOR SEAS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE
NEXT CREW RE-EVALUATE THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE SCA
FOR SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/ A
VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS.  STRONG SCA CONDS
WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG LOW
PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. LEVELS
ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN STEADILY
FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BTWN 1-2
INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR E AND
NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE AMOUNTS...
SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN
RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR LARGER
RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL WILL DEPEND
ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...
ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 220902 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
502 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO






000
FXUS61 KGYX 220902 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
502 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE
SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KCAR 220751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD WESTERN MAINE BY LATE TODAY PUSHING THE FRONT
BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES BACK NORTH.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN BY LATE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU...
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TO START ALL TERMINALS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL) AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS
(KBGR/KBHB) THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS COULD INCREASE TO 4 TO 6
FT BY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THUS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS MARGINAL
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN SCA FOR SEAS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE
NEXT CREW RE-EVALUATE THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE SCA
FOR SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/ A
VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS.  STRONG SCA CONDS
WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG LOW
PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. LEVELS
ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN STEADILY
FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BTWN 1-2
INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR E AND
NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE AMOUNTS...
SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN
RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR LARGER
RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL WILL DEPEND
ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...
ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...KHW








000
FXUS61 KCAR 220751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD WESTERN MAINE BY LATE TODAY PUSHING THE FRONT
BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES BACK NORTH.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN BY LATE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF
MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND
DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED
INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU.
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR
THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY
LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL
DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER
AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS
GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU...
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS
EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI
AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN
W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN
THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE
USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER
THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TO START ALL TERMINALS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL) AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS
(KBGR/KBHB) THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL
BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS COULD INCREASE TO 4 TO 6
FT BY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THUS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS MARGINAL
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN SCA FOR SEAS AT THIS TIME AND LET THE
NEXT CREW RE-EVALUATE THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE SCA
FOR SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/ A
VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS.  STRONG SCA CONDS
WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG LOW
PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. LEVELS
ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN STEADILY
FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BTWN 1-2
INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR E AND
NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE AMOUNTS...
SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN
RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR LARGER
RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL WILL DEPEND
ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...
ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...KHW









000
FXUS61 KGYX 220733
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST
RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING
A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP MEASURABLE POP
CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 220733
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST
RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING
A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP MEASURABLE POP
CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 220733
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST
RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING
A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP MEASURABLE POP
CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 220733
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST
RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING
A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP MEASURABLE POP
CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ATTM.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM
NICELY INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE
MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO
SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY.
COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME
DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN
EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED
RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST
DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE
FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW
GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS
OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT
IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS
HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT
LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED
OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE
LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND
ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE
SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT
OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN
BOTH TEMPS AND POP.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT
LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2
     AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KCAR 220418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 220418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 220318 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1118 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. AREAS WHICH SAW THE
SEABREEZE TODAY ARE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW COOLER THAN STATIONS
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SW MAINE. ALSO THERE IS A POCKET OF VERY DRY
AIR /DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS STILL OVER SOUTHERN NH/ LEAVING
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR COOLING. THEREFORE LOWS WILL VARY FROM LOCATION
TO LOCATION EVEN AS WINDS DIE OFF AT MOST SITES. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NY STATE AND VT THIS HOUR AND WILL
REACH OUR REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT.
ECHOES OFF THE COAST LIKELY THE RESULT OF ATMOSPHERIC DUCTING AND
ARE NOT PRECIPITATION.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...A FAIR AND
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM-SECTORED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET PRETTY
WARM...WITH READINGS AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH TO MID 50S IN THE
FAR NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA WEDNESDAY... WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR IN... AND ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO AN END.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S
AND 50S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MAY SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING
IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... BUT WINDS MAY STAY UP FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS MAINE... LIMITING OVERALL COOLING THERE. EXPECT A
LITTLE WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
LITTLE COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT IMPROVE TO
VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOR MARGINAL WIND GUSTS BUT ESPECIALLY SEAS WHICH MAY REACH 5 OR
6 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

LONG TERM...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY
GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT. GALES ARE UNLIKELY BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.



&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 220318 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1118 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. AREAS WHICH SAW THE
SEABREEZE TODAY ARE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW COOLER THAN STATIONS
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SW MAINE. ALSO THERE IS A POCKET OF VERY DRY
AIR /DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS STILL OVER SOUTHERN NH/ LEAVING
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR COOLING. THEREFORE LOWS WILL VARY FROM LOCATION
TO LOCATION EVEN AS WINDS DIE OFF AT MOST SITES. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NY STATE AND VT THIS HOUR AND WILL
REACH OUR REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT.
ECHOES OFF THE COAST LIKELY THE RESULT OF ATMOSPHERIC DUCTING AND
ARE NOT PRECIPITATION.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...A FAIR AND
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM-SECTORED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET PRETTY
WARM...WITH READINGS AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH TO MID 50S IN THE
FAR NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA WEDNESDAY... WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR IN... AND ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO AN END.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S
AND 50S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MAY SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING
IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... BUT WINDS MAY STAY UP FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS MAINE... LIMITING OVERALL COOLING THERE. EXPECT A
LITTLE WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
LITTLE COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT IMPROVE TO
VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOR MARGINAL WIND GUSTS BUT ESPECIALLY SEAS WHICH MAY REACH 5 OR
6 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

LONG TERM...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY
GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT. GALES ARE UNLIKELY BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.



&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KCAR 220217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1017 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
940 PM UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE RE-ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 9 PM
OBS TO FCST LOWS THAT WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN THE FAR NW BASED
LATEST TEMPS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH OVRNGT LOW RE-POSTED
AT 2-3 AM MON. THINKING IS AFT THIS TM...THICKER CLD CVR FROM QB
WILL HAVE MOVED E INTO OUR FA...CUTTING OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WITH TEMPS EVEN RE-BOUNDING A FEW DEG F
BY DAYBREAK TUE.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 220217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1017 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
940 PM UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE RE-ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 9 PM
OBS TO FCST LOWS THAT WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN THE FAR NW BASED
LATEST TEMPS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH OVRNGT LOW RE-POSTED
AT 2-3 AM MON. THINKING IS AFT THIS TM...THICKER CLD CVR FROM QB
WILL HAVE MOVED E INTO OUR FA...CUTTING OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WITH TEMPS EVEN RE-BOUNDING A FEW DEG F
BY DAYBREAK TUE.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 220217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1017 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
940 PM UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE RE-ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 9 PM
OBS TO FCST LOWS THAT WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN THE FAR NW BASED
LATEST TEMPS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH OVRNGT LOW RE-POSTED
AT 2-3 AM MON. THINKING IS AFT THIS TM...THICKER CLD CVR FROM QB
WILL HAVE MOVED E INTO OUR FA...CUTTING OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WITH TEMPS EVEN RE-BOUNDING A FEW DEG F
BY DAYBREAK TUE.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 220217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1017 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
940 PM UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE RE-ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 9 PM
OBS TO FCST LOWS THAT WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN THE FAR NW BASED
LATEST TEMPS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH OVRNGT LOW RE-POSTED
AT 2-3 AM MON. THINKING IS AFT THIS TM...THICKER CLD CVR FROM QB
WILL HAVE MOVED E INTO OUR FA...CUTTING OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WITH TEMPS EVEN RE-BOUNDING A FEW DEG F
BY DAYBREAK TUE.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 212252
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
652 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDE REDUCING CLD CVR ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION EARLY TO MID EVE BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY
TRENDS...THEN MERGING TO CLDY SKIES FOR LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORN.
OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 6 PM OBS
TO...FOR NOW....UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM MON.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 212252
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
652 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDE REDUCING CLD CVR ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION EARLY TO MID EVE BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY
TRENDS...THEN MERGING TO CLDY SKIES FOR LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORN.
OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 6 PM OBS
TO...FOR NOW....UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM MON.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 212045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
445 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW










000
FXUS61 KCAR 212045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
445 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW











000
FXUS61 KGYX 211902
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...A FAIR AND
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM-SECTORED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET PRETTY
WARM...WITH READINGS AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH TO MID 50S IN THE
FAR NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA WEDNESDAY... WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR IN... AND ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO AN END.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S
AND 50S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MAY SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING
IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... BUT WINDS MAY STAY UP FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS MAINE... LIMITING OVERALL COOLING THERE. EXPECT A
LITTLE WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
LITTLE COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT IMPROVE TO
VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOR MARGINAL WIND GUSTS BUT ESPECIALLY SEAS WHICH MAY REACH 5 OR
6 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

LONG TERM...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY
GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT. GALES ARE UNLIKELY BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE
LONG TERM...CK




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211902
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...A FAIR AND
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM-SECTORED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET PRETTY
WARM...WITH READINGS AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH TO MID 50S IN THE
FAR NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA WEDNESDAY... WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR IN... AND ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO AN END.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S
AND 50S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MAY SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING
IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... BUT WINDS MAY STAY UP FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS MAINE... LIMITING OVERALL COOLING THERE. EXPECT A
LITTLE WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
LITTLE COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT IMPROVE TO
VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FOR MARGINAL WIND GUSTS BUT ESPECIALLY SEAS WHICH MAY REACH 5 OR
6 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

LONG TERM...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY
GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT. GALES ARE UNLIKELY BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE
LONG TERM...CK





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211651
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1252 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY...CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID
TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPS A LITTLE BIT...BUT
OVERALL VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

1045 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

PREVIOUSLY...

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HAVE TO LOOK ALL THE WAY BACK TO SRN
ONTARIO TO FIND ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND OR CIGS BELOW 8 KFT.
HAVE KEPT POP BELOW 15 ATTM EXPECTING NO MEASURABLE PCPN...BUT A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PLAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM. CLEARING WILL ALLOW AREAS TO
DROP INTO THE 20S...WHILE CLOUDS WILL BOUNCE READINGS BACK INTO
THE 30S.

SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL KEEP COASTAL ME IN THE 50S...WHILE INTERIOR
SECTIONS WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMING TEMPS AND DRY AIR
MASS WILL PRODUCE RH VALUES CLOSE TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NH
TODAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON GUSTS...BUT THIS WILL
STILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. NOT ENOUGH FOR A RED
FLAG...BUT WILL MENTION HERE AND IN THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SLY/SWLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MILD NIGHT...WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S. SOME SHRA MAY SPILL INTO NRN ZONES FROM CANADA AS FNT
PRESSES CLOSER TO THE REGION. LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FNT
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TUE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR AREAS SE OF
THE MTNS...WITH SHRA BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE N AS THE
DAY WEARS ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...COOLER AT
THE COAST AND FAR N UNDER CLOUD COVER...WARMING NICELY INLAND.
LATE IN THE DAY COASTAL STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO FORM...AS DEEPER SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT
500MB...BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY BY THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT...AND THIS WILL
MEAN LOWERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SHRA MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. TUE NIGHTS TEMPS WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIP WILL
BE RAIN EVERYWHERE BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. UNCERTAINTY ALREADY
BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORECAST LATE WED AND WED NIGHT...AS UPPR LVL
LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR SE AND COULD SLOW SFC LOW OR HANG SFC TROUGH
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS COULD LINGER SOME SHRA THU AFT INTO THU
NIGHT ALONG THE MID-COAST AND INTO THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT
VLYS. AS THAT LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE...WILL SEE N-NW WINDS PICK
UP ON THE BACK SIDE...WITH SOME BREEZY CONDS IN STORE WED INTO
THU.

DECENT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW THU INTO FRI...SO
EXPECTING A DRY PERIOD...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.
ITS AFTER THIS WHEN WE START TO GET INTO MULTIPLE STRONG BLOCKS
AND GYRES AT 500 MB...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODELS ABILITY TO
HANDLE THESE FEATURES IS LOW...BUT FOR NOW LOOK FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY TUE.
EVENTUALLY APPROACHING TROF WILL SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO NH TERMINALS BY TUE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD IN ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM...EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY WED. THEN...VFR
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT ONSHORE...SLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED.

LONG TERM...N-NW FLOW INCREASES ON WED AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES E
OF THE WATERS. WILL LKLY SEE SCA CONDS LATE WED INTO THU...AND
COULD SEE GALES IN THE OPENS WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KGYX 211651
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1252 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY...CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID
TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPS A LITTLE BIT...BUT
OVERALL VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

1045 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

PREVIOUSLY...

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HAVE TO LOOK ALL THE WAY BACK TO SRN
ONTARIO TO FIND ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND OR CIGS BELOW 8 KFT.
HAVE KEPT POP BELOW 15 ATTM EXPECTING NO MEASURABLE PCPN...BUT A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PLAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM. CLEARING WILL ALLOW AREAS TO
DROP INTO THE 20S...WHILE CLOUDS WILL BOUNCE READINGS BACK INTO
THE 30S.

SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL KEEP COASTAL ME IN THE 50S...WHILE INTERIOR
SECTIONS WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMING TEMPS AND DRY AIR
MASS WILL PRODUCE RH VALUES CLOSE TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NH
TODAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON GUSTS...BUT THIS WILL
STILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. NOT ENOUGH FOR A RED
FLAG...BUT WILL MENTION HERE AND IN THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SLY/SWLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MILD NIGHT...WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S. SOME SHRA MAY SPILL INTO NRN ZONES FROM CANADA AS FNT
PRESSES CLOSER TO THE REGION. LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FNT
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TUE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR AREAS SE OF
THE MTNS...WITH SHRA BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE N AS THE
DAY WEARS ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...COOLER AT
THE COAST AND FAR N UNDER CLOUD COVER...WARMING NICELY INLAND.
LATE IN THE DAY COASTAL STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO FORM...AS DEEPER SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT
500MB...BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY BY THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT...AND THIS WILL
MEAN LOWERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SHRA MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. TUE NIGHTS TEMPS WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIP WILL
BE RAIN EVERYWHERE BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. UNCERTAINTY ALREADY
BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORECAST LATE WED AND WED NIGHT...AS UPPR LVL
LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR SE AND COULD SLOW SFC LOW OR HANG SFC TROUGH
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS COULD LINGER SOME SHRA THU AFT INTO THU
NIGHT ALONG THE MID-COAST AND INTO THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT
VLYS. AS THAT LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE...WILL SEE N-NW WINDS PICK
UP ON THE BACK SIDE...WITH SOME BREEZY CONDS IN STORE WED INTO
THU.

DECENT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW THU INTO FRI...SO
EXPECTING A DRY PERIOD...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.
ITS AFTER THIS WHEN WE START TO GET INTO MULTIPLE STRONG BLOCKS
AND GYRES AT 500 MB...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODELS ABILITY TO
HANDLE THESE FEATURES IS LOW...BUT FOR NOW LOOK FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY TUE.
EVENTUALLY APPROACHING TROF WILL SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO NH TERMINALS BY TUE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD IN ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM...EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY WED. THEN...VFR
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT ONSHORE...SLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED.

LONG TERM...N-NW FLOW INCREASES ON WED AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES E
OF THE WATERS. WILL LKLY SEE SCA CONDS LATE WED INTO THU...AND
COULD SEE GALES IN THE OPENS WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KGYX 211651
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1252 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY...CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID
TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPS A LITTLE BIT...BUT
OVERALL VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

1045 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

PREVIOUSLY...

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HAVE TO LOOK ALL THE WAY BACK TO SRN
ONTARIO TO FIND ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND OR CIGS BELOW 8 KFT.
HAVE KEPT POP BELOW 15 ATTM EXPECTING NO MEASURABLE PCPN...BUT A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PLAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM. CLEARING WILL ALLOW AREAS TO
DROP INTO THE 20S...WHILE CLOUDS WILL BOUNCE READINGS BACK INTO
THE 30S.

SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL KEEP COASTAL ME IN THE 50S...WHILE INTERIOR
SECTIONS WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMING TEMPS AND DRY AIR
MASS WILL PRODUCE RH VALUES CLOSE TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NH
TODAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON GUSTS...BUT THIS WILL
STILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. NOT ENOUGH FOR A RED
FLAG...BUT WILL MENTION HERE AND IN THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SLY/SWLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MILD NIGHT...WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S. SOME SHRA MAY SPILL INTO NRN ZONES FROM CANADA AS FNT
PRESSES CLOSER TO THE REGION. LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FNT
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TUE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR AREAS SE OF
THE MTNS...WITH SHRA BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE N AS THE
DAY WEARS ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...COOLER AT
THE COAST AND FAR N UNDER CLOUD COVER...WARMING NICELY INLAND.
LATE IN THE DAY COASTAL STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO FORM...AS DEEPER SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT
500MB...BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY BY THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT...AND THIS WILL
MEAN LOWERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SHRA MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. TUE NIGHTS TEMPS WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIP WILL
BE RAIN EVERYWHERE BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. UNCERTAINTY ALREADY
BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORECAST LATE WED AND WED NIGHT...AS UPPR LVL
LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR SE AND COULD SLOW SFC LOW OR HANG SFC TROUGH
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS COULD LINGER SOME SHRA THU AFT INTO THU
NIGHT ALONG THE MID-COAST AND INTO THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT
VLYS. AS THAT LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE...WILL SEE N-NW WINDS PICK
UP ON THE BACK SIDE...WITH SOME BREEZY CONDS IN STORE WED INTO
THU.

DECENT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW THU INTO FRI...SO
EXPECTING A DRY PERIOD...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.
ITS AFTER THIS WHEN WE START TO GET INTO MULTIPLE STRONG BLOCKS
AND GYRES AT 500 MB...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODELS ABILITY TO
HANDLE THESE FEATURES IS LOW...BUT FOR NOW LOOK FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY TUE.
EVENTUALLY APPROACHING TROF WILL SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO NH TERMINALS BY TUE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD IN ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM...EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY WED. THEN...VFR
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT ONSHORE...SLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED.

LONG TERM...N-NW FLOW INCREASES ON WED AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES E
OF THE WATERS. WILL LKLY SEE SCA CONDS LATE WED INTO THU...AND
COULD SEE GALES IN THE OPENS WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KGYX 211651
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1252 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY...CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID
TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPS A LITTLE BIT...BUT
OVERALL VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

1045 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

PREVIOUSLY...

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HAVE TO LOOK ALL THE WAY BACK TO SRN
ONTARIO TO FIND ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND OR CIGS BELOW 8 KFT.
HAVE KEPT POP BELOW 15 ATTM EXPECTING NO MEASURABLE PCPN...BUT A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PLAY WITH TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM. CLEARING WILL ALLOW AREAS TO
DROP INTO THE 20S...WHILE CLOUDS WILL BOUNCE READINGS BACK INTO
THE 30S.

SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL KEEP COASTAL ME IN THE 50S...WHILE INTERIOR
SECTIONS WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMING TEMPS AND DRY AIR
MASS WILL PRODUCE RH VALUES CLOSE TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NH
TODAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON GUSTS...BUT THIS WILL
STILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. NOT ENOUGH FOR A RED
FLAG...BUT WILL MENTION HERE AND IN THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SLY/SWLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MILD NIGHT...WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S. SOME SHRA MAY SPILL INTO NRN ZONES FROM CANADA AS FNT
PRESSES CLOSER TO THE REGION. LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FNT
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TUE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR AREAS SE OF
THE MTNS...WITH SHRA BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE N AS THE
DAY WEARS ON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...COOLER AT
THE COAST AND FAR N UNDER CLOUD COVER...WARMING NICELY INLAND.
LATE IN THE DAY COASTAL STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO FORM...AS DEEPER SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT
500MB...BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY BY THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT...AND THIS WILL
MEAN LOWERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SHRA MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. TUE NIGHTS TEMPS WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIP WILL
BE RAIN EVERYWHERE BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. UNCERTAINTY ALREADY
BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORECAST LATE WED AND WED NIGHT...AS UPPR LVL
LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR SE AND COULD SLOW SFC LOW OR HANG SFC TROUGH
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS COULD LINGER SOME SHRA THU AFT INTO THU
NIGHT ALONG THE MID-COAST AND INTO THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT
VLYS. AS THAT LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE...WILL SEE N-NW WINDS PICK
UP ON THE BACK SIDE...WITH SOME BREEZY CONDS IN STORE WED INTO
THU.

DECENT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW THU INTO FRI...SO
EXPECTING A DRY PERIOD...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.
ITS AFTER THIS WHEN WE START TO GET INTO MULTIPLE STRONG BLOCKS
AND GYRES AT 500 MB...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODELS ABILITY TO
HANDLE THESE FEATURES IS LOW...BUT FOR NOW LOOK FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY TUE.
EVENTUALLY APPROACHING TROF WILL SPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO NH TERMINALS BY TUE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD IN ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM...EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE DAY WED. THEN...VFR
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT ONSHORE...SLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED.

LONG TERM...N-NW FLOW INCREASES ON WED AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES E
OF THE WATERS. WILL LKLY SEE SCA CONDS LATE WED INTO THU...AND
COULD SEE GALES IN THE OPENS WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCAR 211624
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1224 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS MOSTLY
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50 WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES IS FCST OVR EXTREME SERN ONT TUE AM W/ AN ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT EWRD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NEWRD UP INTO NRN AREAS TUE THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS
ENEWRD TOWARD THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS ADVERTISES THIS MORE NRN
LOW TO WEAKEN AS A STRONGER SEC LOW TAKES OVR VCNTY OF ERN
MASS/NWRN GULF OF MAINE BY ERLY WED. INITIALLY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON TUE W/ SOME LGT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT THEN EXPECT MORE WDSPRD PRECIP TO SPREAD
EWRD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUE THRU TUE NGT AS THIS MORE BROAD AND
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE FA BY LATE WED. EXPECT 1/3 TO 2/3
OF AN INCH OF PRECIP W/ THIS SYSTEM. WEAK WAA WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS A LITTLE ABV SEASONAL NORMS ON TUE W/ MILD CONDS PERSISTING
TUE NGT. CLDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS NR OR MAYBE JUST A BIT
BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON WED.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES CONTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA THO PRECIP
COULD STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR E AND N INTO WED NGT. THIS
TREND CONTS INTO THU W/ STILL CHC POPS ACROSS THE E WHILE HIGH
PRES FINALLY BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU NGT AND THEN CREST THE AREA LATER FRI AS
THE NXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVR THE GRT LAKES IN THIS CONTG ACTIVE
PTRN BEGINS TO SHIFT EWRD TOWARD OUR AREA. THE GFS IS MOST
PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CHC POPS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER FRI/FRI
NGT WHILE TH REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE HOLDS THINGS
BACK UNTIL SAT. ALL MODELS THEN KEEP CONDS UNSETTLED THRU SUN AS A
VRY SLOW MOVG SYSTEM IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL AVG A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE LONG TERM PD.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWRD ACROSS OUR NRN TAF SITES
WILL LIKELY BRING A PD OF LESS THAN VFR CONDS TO OUR NRN TAF
SITES ON TUE WHILE VFR PREVAILS AT THE SRN TAF SITES. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MORE WDSPRD MVFR TO
IFR CONDS BACK TO THE AREA TUE NGT THRU WED W/ CONDS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE LATER WED NGT INTO THE AS THIS SYSTEM MVS E AND HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRES W/ VFR CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT SRLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS ABV 5 FT LATER
TUE. CAA LATE WED WILL LIKELY PUSH BOTH SEAS AND WNDS INTO SCA
CRITERIA.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER NEAR MATTAWAMKEAG REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THIS RIVER IS HISTORICALLY VERY SLOW TO RECEDE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. ANY IMPACTS
WILL BE MINOR.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211624
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1224 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS MOSTLY
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50 WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES IS FCST OVR EXTREME SERN ONT TUE AM W/ AN ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT EWRD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NEWRD UP INTO NRN AREAS TUE THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS
ENEWRD TOWARD THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS ADVERTISES THIS MORE NRN
LOW TO WEAKEN AS A STRONGER SEC LOW TAKES OVR VCNTY OF ERN
MASS/NWRN GULF OF MAINE BY ERLY WED. INITIALLY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON TUE W/ SOME LGT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT THEN EXPECT MORE WDSPRD PRECIP TO SPREAD
EWRD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUE THRU TUE NGT AS THIS MORE BROAD AND
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE FA BY LATE WED. EXPECT 1/3 TO 2/3
OF AN INCH OF PRECIP W/ THIS SYSTEM. WEAK WAA WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS A LITTLE ABV SEASONAL NORMS ON TUE W/ MILD CONDS PERSISTING
TUE NGT. CLDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS NR OR MAYBE JUST A BIT
BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON WED.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES CONTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA THO PRECIP
COULD STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR E AND N INTO WED NGT. THIS
TREND CONTS INTO THU W/ STILL CHC POPS ACROSS THE E WHILE HIGH
PRES FINALLY BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU NGT AND THEN CREST THE AREA LATER FRI AS
THE NXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVR THE GRT LAKES IN THIS CONTG ACTIVE
PTRN BEGINS TO SHIFT EWRD TOWARD OUR AREA. THE GFS IS MOST
PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CHC POPS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER FRI/FRI
NGT WHILE TH REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE HOLDS THINGS
BACK UNTIL SAT. ALL MODELS THEN KEEP CONDS UNSETTLED THRU SUN AS A
VRY SLOW MOVG SYSTEM IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL AVG A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE LONG TERM PD.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWRD ACROSS OUR NRN TAF SITES
WILL LIKELY BRING A PD OF LESS THAN VFR CONDS TO OUR NRN TAF
SITES ON TUE WHILE VFR PREVAILS AT THE SRN TAF SITES. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MORE WDSPRD MVFR TO
IFR CONDS BACK TO THE AREA TUE NGT THRU WED W/ CONDS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE LATER WED NGT INTO THE AS THIS SYSTEM MVS E AND HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRES W/ VFR CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT SRLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS ABV 5 FT LATER
TUE. CAA LATE WED WILL LIKELY PUSH BOTH SEAS AND WNDS INTO SCA
CRITERIA.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER NEAR MATTAWAMKEAG REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THIS RIVER IS HISTORICALLY VERY SLOW TO RECEDE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. ANY IMPACTS
WILL BE MINOR.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW
HYDROLOGY...







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