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000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211929
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN TH MTNS THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRIT BUT SEAS WILL BUILD
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211929
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN TH MTNS THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRIT BUT SEAS WILL BUILD
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211605
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WE NEEDED TO RAISE HI
TEMPS A FEW DEG ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS MOVG INTO NRN ME FROM QB PROV CAN...
SO THE RATE OF TEMP RISE SHOULD SLOW OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THESE CHGS. OTHERWISE...
SKY AND POP GRIDS WERE UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER









000
FXUS61 KCAR 211605
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WE NEEDED TO RAISE HI
TEMPS A FEW DEG ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS MOVG INTO NRN ME FROM QB PROV CAN...
SO THE RATE OF TEMP RISE SHOULD SLOW OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THESE CHGS. OTHERWISE...
SKY AND POP GRIDS WERE UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER










000
FXUS61 KGYX 211402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1002 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...VISIBLE SAT PIX SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME
ATTM SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DROPPED POPS TO ZERO TO
REFLECT THESE CONDS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVER SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1002 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...VISIBLE SAT PIX SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME
ATTM SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DROPPED POPS TO ZERO TO
REFLECT THESE CONDS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVER SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 211358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE: CLD CVR AND POPS WERE UPDATED FOR TDY INTO MON.
SAT...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS CONT TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF TWO AREAS
OF RNFL TO EVOLVE...ONE AREA FOR DOWNEAST AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN PTN OF THE RN SHIELD FOR LATE TODAY THRU TNGT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES. THE OTHER AREA OF SHWRS WILL AFFECT NW PTNS OF THE FA
LATER TNGT...AND THEN MOVG E TO AFFECT MSLY NERN PTNS OF THE FA
MON MORN.

MEANWHILE...SKIES HAVE BECOME PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA THIS MORN...WITH SCT SHWRS SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALL OF
THESE TRENDS ALG WITH LATEST OBSVD TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS UPDATE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THEN PREV XPCTD TDY (WHICH IS AN
OPPOSITE TREND FROM YSTDY ATTM)...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN THE EVENT WE NEED TO BUMP UP HI TEMPS THIS AFTN FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 211358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE: CLD CVR AND POPS WERE UPDATED FOR TDY INTO MON.
SAT...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS CONT TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF TWO AREAS
OF RNFL TO EVOLVE...ONE AREA FOR DOWNEAST AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN PTN OF THE RN SHIELD FOR LATE TODAY THRU TNGT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES. THE OTHER AREA OF SHWRS WILL AFFECT NW PTNS OF THE FA
LATER TNGT...AND THEN MOVG E TO AFFECT MSLY NERN PTNS OF THE FA
MON MORN.

MEANWHILE...SKIES HAVE BECOME PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA THIS MORN...WITH SCT SHWRS SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALL OF
THESE TRENDS ALG WITH LATEST OBSVD TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS UPDATE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THEN PREV XPCTD TDY (WHICH IS AN
OPPOSITE TREND FROM YSTDY ATTM)...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN THE EVENT WE NEED TO BUMP UP HI TEMPS THIS AFTN FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 210950
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
550 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UP TO
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
MAINE TO REFLECT CURENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210717
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT AND DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHWIBS/CEMPA
NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...SCHWIBS
MARINE...SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210717
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT AND DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHWIBS/CEMPA
NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...SCHWIBS
MARINE...SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210653
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MARGINAL SCA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEAS ON THE COASTAL
WATERS 4 TO 5 FT.  THE SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE SOME LATER THIS
MORNING AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AND POSSIBLY DROP THE ADVISORY WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.  ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 210407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1207 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/HEWITT/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1207 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/HEWITT/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1207 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/HEWITT/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KGYX 210231
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA...MAINLY SKY COVER. SKIES CONTINUE
TO CLEAR OUT AND SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER
3 AM...EXPECT COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

7 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
STRENGTHENS AS K-INDICES RISE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO AROUND
ZERO. SHOWERS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD RUMBLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PREVIOUSLY...

12Z SOUNDING NOTED SW FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT 925 TO
800MB THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING
TONIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE FORMATION OF FOG OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BUT
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED AS PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
THE 1.7 RANGE TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEADING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAYBE BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MODEST AT BEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN AND HEATING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND INTO EASTERN MAINE
MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY JUST
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THIS WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIP DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
BASINS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT THE
MAJORITY OF SITES SHOULD HOVER IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS PARTLY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETSTREAK AND SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SOURCE IS WELL NORTH AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VIS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING..MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND FOG. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KGYX 202306
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
706 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
STRENGTHENS AS K-INDICES RISE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO AROUND
ZERO. SHOWERS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD RUMBLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PREVIOUSLY...

12Z SOUNDING NOTED SW FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT 925 TO
800MB THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING
TONIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE FORMATION OF FOG OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BUT
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED AS PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
THE 1.7 RANGE TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEADING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAYBE BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MODEST AT BEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN AND HEATING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND INTO EASTERN MAINE
MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY JUST
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THIS WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIP DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
BASINS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT THE
MAJORITY OF SITES SHOULD HOVER IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS PARTLY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETSTREAK AND SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SOURCE IS WELL NORTH AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VIS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING..MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND FOG. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202306
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
706 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
STRENGTHENS AS K-INDICES RISE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO AROUND
ZERO. SHOWERS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD RUMBLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PREVIOUSLY...

12Z SOUNDING NOTED SW FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT 925 TO
800MB THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING
TONIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE FORMATION OF FOG OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BUT
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED AS PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
THE 1.7 RANGE TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEADING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAYBE BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MODEST AT BEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN AND HEATING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND INTO EASTERN MAINE
MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY JUST
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THIS WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIP DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
BASINS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT THE
MAJORITY OF SITES SHOULD HOVER IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS PARTLY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETSTREAK AND SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SOURCE IS WELL NORTH AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VIS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING..MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND FOG. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 202233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO FIT BETTER W/THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
AREAS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF HANGING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN MAINE COUPLED W/AN UPPER IMPULSE AS SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING OVER THE LAST 3 HRS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES W/THE MINS BEING HIT THIS EVENING.


THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND THERE OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 202233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO FIT BETTER W/THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
AREAS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF HANGING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN MAINE COUPLED W/AN UPPER IMPULSE AS SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING OVER THE LAST 3 HRS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES W/THE MINS BEING HIT THIS EVENING.


THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND THERE OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 202233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO FIT BETTER W/THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
AREAS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF HANGING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN MAINE COUPLED W/AN UPPER IMPULSE AS SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING OVER THE LAST 3 HRS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES W/THE MINS BEING HIT THIS EVENING.


THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND THERE OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 202233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO FIT BETTER W/THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
AREAS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF HANGING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN MAINE COUPLED W/AN UPPER IMPULSE AS SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING OVER THE LAST 3 HRS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES W/THE MINS BEING HIT THIS EVENING.


THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND THERE OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/JORDAN/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201944
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SATELLITE AND OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND
THERE OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN












000
FXUS61 KCAR 201944
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SATELLITE AND OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND
THERE OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT EVEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN













000
FXUS61 KGYX 201932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z SOUNDING NOTED SW FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT 925 TO
800MB THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING
TONIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE FORMATION OF FOG OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BUT
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED AS PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
THE 1.7 RANGE TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEADING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAYBE BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MODEST AT BEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN AND HEATING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND INTO EASTERN MAINE
MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY JUST
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THIS WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIP DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
BASINS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT THE
MAJORITY OF SITES SHOULD HOVER IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS PARTLY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETSTREAK AND SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SOURCE IS WELL NORTH AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VIS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING..MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND FOG. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT WARRANT AN SCA. SWELLS WILL
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND AN
SCA MAY BE WARRANTED.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KISTNER/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z SOUNDING NOTED SW FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT 925 TO
800MB THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING
TONIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE FORMATION OF FOG OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BUT
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED AS PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
THE 1.7 RANGE TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEADING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAYBE BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MODEST AT BEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN AND HEATING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND INTO EASTERN MAINE
MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY JUST
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THIS WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIP DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
BASINS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT THE
MAJORITY OF SITES SHOULD HOVER IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS PARTLY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETSTREAK AND SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SOURCE IS WELL NORTH AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VIS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING..MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND FOG. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT WARRANT AN SCA. SWELLS WILL
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND AN
SCA MAY BE WARRANTED.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KISTNER/HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 201648
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1248 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE... A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING SEEN
IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
WHAT IS SEEN ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
HAVE BEEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH EXCEPTION OF EASTERN
HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE THEY ARE SEEING A
BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
DID OPT TO EXPAND THE AREA OF SLIGHT POPS FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO UPDATED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201648
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1248 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE... A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING SEEN
IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
WHAT IS SEEN ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
HAVE BEEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH EXCEPTION OF EASTERN
HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE THEY ARE SEEING A
BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
DID OPT TO EXPAND THE AREA OF SLIGHT POPS FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO UPDATED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201648
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1248 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE... A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING SEEN
IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
WHAT IS SEEN ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
HAVE BEEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH EXCEPTION OF EASTERN
HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE THEY ARE SEEING A
BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
DID OPT TO EXPAND THE AREA OF SLIGHT POPS FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO UPDATED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201648
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1248 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE... A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING SEEN
IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
WHAT IS SEEN ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
HAVE BEEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH EXCEPTION OF EASTERN
HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE THEY ARE SEEING A
BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.
DID OPT TO EXPAND THE AREA OF SLIGHT POPS FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO UPDATED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 201643
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1243 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING A BIT...BUT STILL
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA. PULLED BACK ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN AS CURRENT OB TRENDS WERE SHOWING 4-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

1000 AM UPDATE...HAD TO LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER. LOW
STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AT THIS TIME
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT CLOUD COVER WILL MIX OUT AND MOST AREAS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR AN OVERCAST DAY TODAY. OVER THE WATERS THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 24 KNOTS AND MESO SCALE MODELS ARE
SHOWING CONSISTENT 25 KNOT GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN SCA MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE

615 AM...QUICK UPDATE...MAINLY FOR TEMPS...AS THEY ARE QUITE
VARIABLE THIS MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING FROM NEAR 30
IN SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS /KSFM IS 28 WHILE NEARBY MESONET AT N
BERWICK IS 44 AND SPRINGVALE IS 41/. ALSO MADE SOME SKY
ADJUSTMENTS AS SOME AS STRATOCU IS WORKING ACROSS NH...AND WILL
MAKE FOR CLOUDY START IN WESTERN AND NRN NH...AS WELL AS FAR WRN
ME...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DO MIX OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY...WILL SEE SW FLOW
START TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVE OF CIRRUS THRU
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SUN FROM COMING
THROUGH. SW WINDS PUSH UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND A FEW
SPOTS REACHING 70 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SUN WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE S-SW
WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE 5-10 MPH WIND IN A LOT OF SPOTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR TO RIDE IN AND KEEP THE MINS FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL SEEM BALMY AFTER THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LKLY DEVELOP
SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN A PERSISTENT SFC FLOW STRATUS
SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG.

THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD LOW SITTING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS WANT TO PICK IT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW AND DRAG
IT NE...MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOTHING VERY DYNAMIC ABOUT
IT...AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP FAR ENOUGH E TO KEEP MOST OF ITS PRECIP
OFFSHORE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IF MAY PRODUCE WEAK AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS ON ITS NW SIDE AS IT MOVES THRU SUN MORNING...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. HAVE PUT SOME 20ISH POPS IN THE
FORECAST SUN MORNING TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH.

THINK SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY BETWEEN CLOUDS IN THE N
FORM WAA AND LOW STRATUS...HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING MOVE IN
AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THAT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW....AND BEFORE THE
FRONT COMES IN...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE MID-COAST
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR EVEN A FEW TSRA
DEVELOPING IN NRN AND WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
WILL BE INSTABILITY AS TDS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...BUT A
TRIGGER WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUN EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND
IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK TO ARRIVE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRING STEADILY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A AN HOUR
OR TWO OF FOG AT KLEB OR KHIE THIS AM. COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MOVE IN
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG TO
IFR OR LOWER MID-LATE EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

TUE...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND COULD PEAK WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER..THE PERSISTENT SW
COULD PUSHES SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201509
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1109 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...HAD TO LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER. LOW
STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AT THIS TIME
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT CLOUD COVER WILL MIX OUT AND MOST AREAS
WILL BE IN STORE FOR AN OVERCAST DAY TODAY. OVER THE WATERS THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 24 KNOTS AND MESO SCALE MODELS ARE
SHOWING CONSISTENT 25 KNOT GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN SCA MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE

615 AM...QUICK UPDATE...MAINLY FOR TEMPS...AS THEY ARE QUITE
VARIABLE THIS MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING FROM NEAR 30
IN SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS /KSFM IS 28 WHILE NEARBY MESONET AT N
BERWICK IS 44 AND SPRINGVALE IS 41/. ALSO MADE SOME SKY
ADJUSTMENTS AS SOME AS STRATOCU IS WORKING ACROSS NH...AND WILL
MAKE FOR CLOUDY START IN WESTERN AND NRN NH...AS WELL AS FAR WRN
ME...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DO MIX OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY...WILL SEE SW FLOW
START TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVE OF CIRRUS THRU
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SUN FROM COMING
THROUGH. SW WINDS PUSH UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND A FEW
SPOTS REACHING 70 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SUN WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE S-SW
WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE 5-10 MPH WIND IN A LOT OF SPOTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR TO RIDE IN AND KEEP THE MINS FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL SEEM BALMY AFTER THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LKLY DEVELOP
SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN A PERSISTENT SFC FLOW STRATUS
SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG.

THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD LOW SITTING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS WANT TO PICK IT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW AND DRAG
IT NE...MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOTHING VERY DYNAMIC ABOUT
IT...AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP FAR ENOUGH E TO KEEP MOST OF ITS PRECIP
OFFSHORE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IF MAY PRODUCE WEAK AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS ON ITS NW SIDE AS IT MOVES THRU SUN MORNING...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. HAVE PUT SOME 20ISH POPS IN THE
FORECAST SUN MORNING TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH.

THINK SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY BETWEEN CLOUDS IN THE N
FORM WAA AND LOW STRATUS...HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING MOVE IN
AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THAT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW....AND BEFORE THE
FRONT COMES IN...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE MID-COAST
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR EVEN A FEW TSRA
DEVELOPING IN NRN AND WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
WILL BE INSTABILITY AS TDS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...BUT A
TRIGGER WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUN EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND
IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK TO ARRIVE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRING STEADILY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A AN HOUR
OR TWO OF FOG AT KLEB OR KHIE THIS AM. COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MOVE IN
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG TO
IFR OR LOWER MID-LATE EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

TUE...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND COULD PEAK WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER..THE PERSISTENT SW
COULD PUSHES SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 201349
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
949 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE... CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING INDICATED BY SATELLITE. THIS BRINGS GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. WSR-88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW
RETURNS HOWEVER MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN VIRGA AS WE STILL HAVE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE FA HAS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201349
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
949 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE... CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING INDICATED BY SATELLITE. THIS BRINGS GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. WSR-88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW
RETURNS HOWEVER MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN VIRGA AS WE STILL HAVE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE FA HAS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201349
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
949 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE... CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING INDICATED BY SATELLITE. THIS BRINGS GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. WSR-88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW
RETURNS HOWEVER MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN VIRGA AS WE STILL HAVE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE FA HAS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201349
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
949 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE... CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING INDICATED BY SATELLITE. THIS BRINGS GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. WSR-88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW
RETURNS HOWEVER MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN VIRGA AS WE STILL HAVE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE FA HAS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201033
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
632 AM...SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP THE FROST ADVISORY
AS THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND ANY FROST DAMAGE
HAS HAPPENED. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201033
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
632 AM...SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP THE FROST ADVISORY
AS THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND ANY FROST DAMAGE
HAS HAPPENED. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201033
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
632 AM...SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP THE FROST ADVISORY
AS THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND ANY FROST DAMAGE
HAS HAPPENED. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 201033
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
632 AM...SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP THE FROST ADVISORY
AS THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND ANY FROST DAMAGE
HAS HAPPENED. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE
HATTERAS COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 201022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM...QUICK UPDATE...MAINLY FOR TEMPS...AS THEY ARE QUITE
VARIABLE THIS MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING FROM NEAR 30
IN SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS /KSFM IS 28 WHILE NEARBY MESONET AT N
BERWICK IS 44 AND SPRINGVALE IS 41/. ALSO MADE SOME SKY
ADJUSTMENTS AS SOME AS STRATOCU IS WORKING ACROSS NH...AND WILL
MAKE FOR CLOUDY START IN WESTERN AND NRN NH...AS WELL AS FAR WRN
ME...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DO MIX OUT LATERTHIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY...WILL SEE SW FLOW
START TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVE OF CIRRUS THRU
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SUN FROM COMING
THROUGH. SW WINDS PUSH UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND A FEW
SPOTS REACHING 70 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SUN WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE S-SW
WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE 5-10 MPH WIND IN A LOT OF SPOTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR TO RIDE IN AND KEEP THE MINS FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL SEEM BALMY AFTER THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LKLY DEVELOP
SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN A PERSISTENT SFC FLOW STRATUS
SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG.

THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD LOW SITTING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS WANT TO PICK IT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW AND DRAG
IT NE...MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOTHING VERY DYNAMIC ABOUT
IT...AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP FAR ENOUGH E TO KEEP MOST OF ITS PRECIP
OFFSHORE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IF MAY PRODUCE WEAK AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS ON ITS NW SIDE AS IT MOVES THRU SUN MORNING...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. HAVE PUT SOME 20ISH POPS IN THE
FORECAST SUN MORNING TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH.

THINK SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY BETWEEN CLOUDS IN THE N
FORM WAA AND LOW STRATUS...HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING MOVE IN
AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THAT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW....AND BEFORE THE
FRONT COMES IN...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE MID-COAST
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR EVEN A FEW TSRA
DEVELOPING IN NRN AND WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
WILL BE INSTABILITY AS TDS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...BUT A
TRIGGER WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUN EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND
IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK TO ARRIVE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRING STEADILY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A AN HOUR
OR TWO OF FOG AT KLEB OR KHIE THIS AM. COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MOVE IN
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG TO
IFR OR LOWER MID-LATE EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

TUE...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND COULD PEAK WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER..THE PERSISTENT SW
COULD PUSHES SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM...QUICK UPDATE...MAINLY FOR TEMPS...AS THEY ARE QUITE
VARIABLE THIS MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING FROM NEAR 30
IN SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS /KSFM IS 28 WHILE NEARBY MESONET AT N
BERWICK IS 44 AND SPRINGVALE IS 41/. ALSO MADE SOME SKY
ADJUSTMENTS AS SOME AS STRATOCU IS WORKING ACROSS NH...AND WILL
MAKE FOR CLOUDY START IN WESTERN AND NRN NH...AS WELL AS FAR WRN
ME...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DO MIX OUT LATERTHIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY...WILL SEE SW FLOW
START TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVE OF CIRRUS THRU
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SUN FROM COMING
THROUGH. SW WINDS PUSH UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND A FEW
SPOTS REACHING 70 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SUN WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE S-SW
WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE 5-10 MPH WIND IN A LOT OF SPOTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR TO RIDE IN AND KEEP THE MINS FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL SEEM BALMY AFTER THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LKLY DEVELOP
SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN A PERSISTENT SFC FLOW STRATUS
SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG.

THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD LOW SITTING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS WANT TO PICK IT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW AND DRAG
IT NE...MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOTHING VERY DYNAMIC ABOUT
IT...AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP FAR ENOUGH E TO KEEP MOST OF ITS PRECIP
OFFSHORE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IF MAY PRODUCE WEAK AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS ON ITS NW SIDE AS IT MOVES THRU SUN MORNING...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. HAVE PUT SOME 20ISH POPS IN THE
FORECAST SUN MORNING TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH.

THINK SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY BETWEEN CLOUDS IN THE N
FORM WAA AND LOW STRATUS...HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING MOVE IN
AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THAT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW....AND BEFORE THE
FRONT COMES IN...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE MID-COAST
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR EVEN A FEW TSRA
DEVELOPING IN NRN AND WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
WILL BE INSTABILITY AS TDS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...BUT A
TRIGGER WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUN EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND
IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK TO ARRIVE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRING STEADILY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A AN HOUR
OR TWO OF FOG AT KLEB OR KHIE THIS AM. COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MOVE IN
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG TO
IFR OR LOWER MID-LATE EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

TUE...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND COULD PEAK WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER..THE PERSISTENT SW
COULD PUSHES SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200740
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY...WILL SEE SW FLOW START TO PUSH
IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVE OF CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SUN FROM COMING THROUGH. SW
WINDS PUSH UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND A FEW SPOTS REACHING
70 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SUN WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE S-SW
WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE 5-10 MPH WIND IN A LOT OF SPOTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR TO RIDE IN AND KEEP THE MINS FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL SEEM BALMY AFTER THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LKLY DEVELOP
SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN A PERSISTENT SFC FLOW STRATUS
SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG.

THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD LOW SITTING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS WANT TO PICK IT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW AND DRAG
IT NE...MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOTHING VERY DYNAMIC ABOUT
IT...AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP FAR ENOUGH E TO KEEP MOST OF ITS PRECIP
OFFSHORE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IF MAY PRODUCE WEAK AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS ON ITS NW SIDE AS IT MOVES THRU SUN MORNING...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. HAVE PUT SOME 20ISH POPS IN THE
FORECAST SUN MORNING TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH.

THINK SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY BETWEEN CLOUDS IN THE N
FORM WAA AND LOW STRATUS...HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING MOVE IN
AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THAT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW....AND BEFORE THE
FRONT COMES IN...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE MID-COAST
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR EVEN A FEW TSRA
DEVELOPING IN NRN AND WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
WILL BE INSTABILITY AS TDS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...BUT A
TRIGGER WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUN EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND
IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK TO ARRIVE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRING STEADILY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A AN HOUR
OR TWO OF FOG AT KLEB OR KHIE THIS AM. COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MOVE IN
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG TO
IFR OR LOWER MID-LATE EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

TUE...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND COULD PEAK WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER..THE PERSISTENT SW
COULD PUSHES SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200740
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY...WILL SEE SW FLOW START TO PUSH
IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVE OF CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SUN FROM COMING THROUGH. SW
WINDS PUSH UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND A FEW SPOTS REACHING
70 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SUN WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE S-SW
WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE 5-10 MPH WIND IN A LOT OF SPOTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR TO RIDE IN AND KEEP THE MINS FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL SEEM BALMY AFTER THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LKLY DEVELOP
SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN A PERSISTENT SFC FLOW STRATUS
SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG.

THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD LOW SITTING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS WANT TO PICK IT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW AND DRAG
IT NE...MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOTHING VERY DYNAMIC ABOUT
IT...AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP FAR ENOUGH E TO KEEP MOST OF ITS PRECIP
OFFSHORE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IF MAY PRODUCE WEAK AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS ON ITS NW SIDE AS IT MOVES THRU SUN MORNING...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. HAVE PUT SOME 20ISH POPS IN THE
FORECAST SUN MORNING TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH.

THINK SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY BETWEEN CLOUDS IN THE N
FORM WAA AND LOW STRATUS...HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING MOVE IN
AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THAT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW....AND BEFORE THE
FRONT COMES IN...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE MID-COAST
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR EVEN A FEW TSRA
DEVELOPING IN NRN AND WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
WILL BE INSTABILITY AS TDS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...BUT A
TRIGGER WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUN EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND
IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK TO ARRIVE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRING STEADILY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A AN HOUR
OR TWO OF FOG AT KLEB OR KHIE THIS AM. COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MOVE IN
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG TO
IFR OR LOWER MID-LATE EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

TUE...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND COULD PEAK WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER..THE PERSISTENT SW
COULD PUSHES SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200740
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY...WILL SEE SW FLOW START TO PUSH
IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVE OF CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SUN FROM COMING THROUGH. SW
WINDS PUSH UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND A FEW SPOTS REACHING
70 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SUN WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE S-SW
WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE 5-10 MPH WIND IN A LOT OF SPOTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR TO RIDE IN AND KEEP THE MINS FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL SEEM BALMY AFTER THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LKLY DEVELOP
SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN A PERSISTENT SFC FLOW STRATUS
SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG.

THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD LOW SITTING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS WANT TO PICK IT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW AND DRAG
IT NE...MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOTHING VERY DYNAMIC ABOUT
IT...AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP FAR ENOUGH E TO KEEP MOST OF ITS PRECIP
OFFSHORE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IF MAY PRODUCE WEAK AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS ON ITS NW SIDE AS IT MOVES THRU SUN MORNING...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. HAVE PUT SOME 20ISH POPS IN THE
FORECAST SUN MORNING TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH.

THINK SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY BETWEEN CLOUDS IN THE N
FORM WAA AND LOW STRATUS...HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING MOVE IN
AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THAT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW....AND BEFORE THE
FRONT COMES IN...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE MID-COAST
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR EVEN A FEW TSRA
DEVELOPING IN NRN AND WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
WILL BE INSTABILITY AS TDS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...BUT A
TRIGGER WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUN EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND
IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK TO ARRIVE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRING STEADILY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A AN HOUR
OR TWO OF FOG AT KLEB OR KHIE THIS AM. COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MOVE IN
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG TO
IFR OR LOWER MID-LATE EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

TUE...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND COULD PEAK WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER..THE PERSISTENT SW
COULD PUSHES SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200740
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY...WILL SEE SW FLOW START TO PUSH
IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVE OF CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SUN FROM COMING THROUGH. SW
WINDS PUSH UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND A FEW SPOTS REACHING
70 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SUN WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE S-SW
WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE 5-10 MPH WIND IN A LOT OF SPOTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR TO RIDE IN AND KEEP THE MINS FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL SEEM BALMY AFTER THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LKLY DEVELOP
SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN A PERSISTENT SFC FLOW STRATUS
SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG.

THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD LOW SITTING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS WANT TO PICK IT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW AND DRAG
IT NE...MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOTHING VERY DYNAMIC ABOUT
IT...AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP FAR ENOUGH E TO KEEP MOST OF ITS PRECIP
OFFSHORE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IF MAY PRODUCE WEAK AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS ON ITS NW SIDE AS IT MOVES THRU SUN MORNING...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. HAVE PUT SOME 20ISH POPS IN THE
FORECAST SUN MORNING TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH.

THINK SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY BETWEEN CLOUDS IN THE N
FORM WAA AND LOW STRATUS...HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING MOVE IN
AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THAT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW....AND BEFORE THE
FRONT COMES IN...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE MID-COAST
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR EVEN A FEW TSRA
DEVELOPING IN NRN AND WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
WILL BE INSTABILITY AS TDS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...BUT A
TRIGGER WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUN EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND
IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK TO ARRIVE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRING STEADILY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A AN HOUR
OR TWO OF FOG AT KLEB OR KHIE THIS AM. COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MOVE IN
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG TO
IFR OR LOWER MID-LATE EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

TUE...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND COULD PEAK WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER..THE PERSISTENT SW
COULD PUSHES SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200719
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING
RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE HATTERAS COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011-015>017-
     031-032.
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
  THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 200719
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR
EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING
RETREATS TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OFF THE HATTERAS COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THEW WILL BE THE BEST
OVERRUNNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WIND
TODAY WITH A S/SW WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH
NO FROST THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTH BREEZE. MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN-FREE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE PUSHES WARMER AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO GET
PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
QUICKLY LIFTS AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TO OUR EAST. SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BE AROUND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DOWNEAST WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COOL
FROSTY NIGHT IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS MILD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH.
MILD WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL BE NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A "BACK DOOR COLD FRONT"
SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO BRIEFLY NUDGE COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.  CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY THEN MAY DROP
TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING VFR DOWNEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THE RETURN
FLOW INCREASES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY WAS THE 7TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6
DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 25F AT HOULTON TIED THE RECORD LOW
FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH THAT WAS LAST SET IN 1978.  IT WAS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE 2009...AND
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF A LOW OF 25F SINCE 1978.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011-015>017-
     031-032.
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
  THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER





000
FXUS61 KCAR 200426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1226 AM...TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOUR
ACROSS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ARE A BIT COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE. THE COOLEST SPOTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT ARE IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON...PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES WHERE THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE MIDNIGHT
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH MOST SHOW SOME
HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST
WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA.
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-
     032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/FOISY
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/FOISY






000
FXUS61 KCAR 200426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1226 AM...TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOUR
ACROSS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ARE A BIT COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE. THE COOLEST SPOTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT ARE IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON...PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES WHERE THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE MIDNIGHT
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH MOST SHOW SOME
HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST
WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA.
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-
     032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/FOISY
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/FOISY





000
FXUS61 KCAR 200249
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1049 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200249
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1049 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200249
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1049 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200249
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1049 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF
OF MAINE GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KGYX 200244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1044 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES
ALREADY EXCEEDING FORECAST VALUES AT ROCKLAND... WISCASSET... AND
PORTSMOUTH. HOWEVER... THIS COLD SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO RISING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SANFORD HAS NOTICEABLY
ALREADY FALLEN TO 34 DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE FREEZING
MARK AGAIN TONIGHT... BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED AN ISOLATED COLD SPOT
AND THUS NO ADVISORY OR WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. COULD SEE SOME
FOG FORMING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND INSERT
PATCHY FROST WORDING IN FOR AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THEIR WAY UP AND ALREADY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY AREAS FROM REACHING FREEZING
THAT DID NOT ALREADY HAVE A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT FROST TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COOLING AS WELL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS... HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT... SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON... SO 70
DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS... WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1044 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES
ALREADY EXCEEDING FORECAST VALUES AT ROCKLAND... WISCASSET... AND
PORTSMOUTH. HOWEVER... THIS COLD SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO RISING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SANFORD HAS NOTICEABLY
ALREADY FALLEN TO 34 DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE FREEZING
MARK AGAIN TONIGHT... BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED AN ISOLATED COLD SPOT
AND THUS NO ADVISORY OR WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. COULD SEE SOME
FOG FORMING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND INSERT
PATCHY FROST WORDING IN FOR AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THEIR WAY UP AND ALREADY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY AREAS FROM REACHING FREEZING
THAT DID NOT ALREADY HAVE A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT FROST TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COOLING AS WELL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS... HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT... SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON... SO 70
DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS... WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1044 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES
ALREADY EXCEEDING FORECAST VALUES AT ROCKLAND... WISCASSET... AND
PORTSMOUTH. HOWEVER... THIS COLD SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO RISING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SANFORD HAS NOTICEABLY
ALREADY FALLEN TO 34 DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE FREEZING
MARK AGAIN TONIGHT... BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED AN ISOLATED COLD SPOT
AND THUS NO ADVISORY OR WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. COULD SEE SOME
FOG FORMING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND INSERT
PATCHY FROST WORDING IN FOR AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THEIR WAY UP AND ALREADY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY AREAS FROM REACHING FREEZING
THAT DID NOT ALREADY HAVE A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT FROST TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COOLING AS WELL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS... HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT... SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON... SO 70
DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS... WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1044 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES
ALREADY EXCEEDING FORECAST VALUES AT ROCKLAND... WISCASSET... AND
PORTSMOUTH. HOWEVER... THIS COLD SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO RISING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SANFORD HAS NOTICEABLY
ALREADY FALLEN TO 34 DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE FREEZING
MARK AGAIN TONIGHT... BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED AN ISOLATED COLD SPOT
AND THUS NO ADVISORY OR WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. COULD SEE SOME
FOG FORMING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND INSERT
PATCHY FROST WORDING IN FOR AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THEIR WAY UP AND ALREADY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY AREAS FROM REACHING FREEZING
THAT DID NOT ALREADY HAVE A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT FROST TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COOLING AS WELL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS... HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT... SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON... SO 70
DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS... WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 200034
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
834 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
THE HIGH MOVING EAST A RETURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE
WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL BE
EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE THE FROST ADVISORY AND TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY






000
FXUS61 KCAR 200034
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
834 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH
THE HIGH MOVING EAST A RETURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE
WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL BE
EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE THE FROST ADVISORY AND TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KGYX 192303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND INSERT
PATCHY FROST WORDING IN FOR AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THEIR WAY UP AND ALREADY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY AREAS FROM REACHING FREEZING
THAT DID NOT ALREADY HAVE A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT FROST TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL
ACT TO LIMIT COOLING AS WELL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS... HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT... SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON... SO 70
DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS... WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND INSERT
PATCHY FROST WORDING IN FOR AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THEIR WAY UP AND ALREADY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY AREAS FROM REACHING FREEZING
THAT DID NOT ALREADY HAVE A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT FROST TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL
ACT TO LIMIT COOLING AS WELL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS... HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT... SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON... SO 70
DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS... WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND INSERT
PATCHY FROST WORDING IN FOR AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THEIR WAY UP AND ALREADY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY AREAS FROM REACHING FREEZING
THAT DID NOT ALREADY HAVE A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT FROST TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL
ACT TO LIMIT COOLING AS WELL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS... HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT... SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON... SO 70
DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS... WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND INSERT
PATCHY FROST WORDING IN FOR AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THEIR WAY UP AND ALREADY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY AREAS FROM REACHING FREEZING
THAT DID NOT ALREADY HAVE A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT FROST TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL
ACT TO LIMIT COOLING AS WELL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS... HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT... SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON... SO 70
DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS... WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




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