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000
FXUS61 KCAR 242207
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
607 PM UPDATE...AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL WEAKEN AND THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY END LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC
COOL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANOTHER SLUSHY INCH OR SO
WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN MANY AREAS. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE POPS
SOME THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND CALLS TO WEATHER SPOTTERS AND REPORTS RECEIVED VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND PARKED
IN NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL START TO ACCUMULATE AGAIN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT SNOW SHOULD END BEFORE
MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER INCH STICKS. TOTALS MAY REACH NEARLY 5
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING IN THE LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
MORNING. WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND UPPER
40S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH
THE HIGH BUILDING AND GUSTS WILL ONLY REACH JUST OVER 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP SATURDAY
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THIS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND REMAIN SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR LATE APRIL BUT SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN AND SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH WILL ALSO HELP MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE RAW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE LONG RANGE. WHILE MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED, STILL
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE PESKY LOW LINGERS. THIS LOW
SHOULD FINALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM HUL NORTHWARD. SNOW WILL END LATER THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. MVFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING...AND LIFT TO VFR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
IFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF HUL EN ROUTE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE
IN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE. NO FURTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ON THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY TO NEAR SCA LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WAS
A VERY WET SNOW (5:1 RATIOS) WITH WATER CONTENT OF 0.50-0.75".
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND WILL SEE SOME ADD`L RISES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASED FLOW ON THE ST CROIX
RIVER DUE TO RELEASES FROM GRAND LAKE AND GRAND FALLS DAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE SNOW CONTINUES TO ADD UP AT CARIBOU. 3" SO FAR
TODAY HAS PUSHED THE SEASONAL TOTAL TO 150.4", WHICH MAKES THE
WINTER OF 2013-2014 THE 6TH SNOWIEST ON RECORD. THE 3.0" OF SNOW
THAT FELL TODAY ALSO RANKS AS THE 10TH GREATEST CALENDAR DAY
SNOWFALL AT CARIBOU THIS LATE INTO THE SEASON. IT IS THE GREATEST
SNOWFALL EVENT SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 3.6 INCHES OF SNOW WAS
OBSERVED ON APRIL 29, 2005.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/MCW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...CB
CLIMATE...CB









000
FXUS61 KCAR 241930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND PARKED
IN NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL START TO ACCUMULATE AGAIN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT SNOW SHOULD END BEFORE
MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER INCH STICKS. TOTALS MAY REACH NEARLY 5
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING IN THE LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
MORNING. WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND UPPER
40S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH
THE HIGH BUILDING AND GUSTS WILL ONLY REACH JUST OVER 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP SATURDAY
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THIS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND REMAIN SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR LATE APRIL BUT SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN AND SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH WILL ALSO HELP MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE RAW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE LONG RANGE. WHILE MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED, STILL
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE PESKY LOW LINGERS. THIS LOW
SHOULD FINALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM HUL NORTHWARD. SNOW WILL END LATER THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. MVFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING...AND LIFT TO VFR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
IFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF HUL EN ROUTE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE
IN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE. NO FURTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ON THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY TO NEAR SCA LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...MCW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...MCW/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 241930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND PARKED
IN NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL START TO ACCUMULATE AGAIN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT SNOW SHOULD END BEFORE
MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER INCH STICKS. TOTALS MAY REACH NEARLY 5
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING IN THE LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
MORNING. WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND UPPER
40S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH
THE HIGH BUILDING AND GUSTS WILL ONLY REACH JUST OVER 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP SATURDAY
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THIS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND REMAIN SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR LATE APRIL BUT SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN AND SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH WILL ALSO HELP MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE RAW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE LONG RANGE. WHILE MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED, STILL
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE PESKY LOW LINGERS. THIS LOW
SHOULD FINALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM HUL NORTHWARD. SNOW WILL END LATER THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. MVFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING...AND LIFT TO VFR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
IFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF HUL EN ROUTE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE
IN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE. NO FURTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ON THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY TO NEAR SCA LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...MCW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...MCW/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 241930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND PARKED
IN NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL START TO ACCUMULATE AGAIN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT SNOW SHOULD END BEFORE
MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER INCH STICKS. TOTALS MAY REACH NEARLY 5
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING IN THE LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
MORNING. WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND UPPER
40S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH
THE HIGH BUILDING AND GUSTS WILL ONLY REACH JUST OVER 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP SATURDAY
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THIS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND REMAIN SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR LATE APRIL BUT SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN AND SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH WILL ALSO HELP MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE RAW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE LONG RANGE. WHILE MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED, STILL
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE PESKY LOW LINGERS. THIS LOW
SHOULD FINALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM HUL NORTHWARD. SNOW WILL END LATER THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. MVFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING...AND LIFT TO VFR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
IFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF HUL EN ROUTE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE
IN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE. NO FURTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ON THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY TO NEAR SCA LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...MCW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...MCW/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 241930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND PARKED
IN NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
SNOW WILL START TO ACCUMULATE AGAIN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT SNOW SHOULD END BEFORE
MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER INCH STICKS. TOTALS MAY REACH NEARLY 5
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING IN THE LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
MORNING. WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND UPPER
40S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH
THE HIGH BUILDING AND GUSTS WILL ONLY REACH JUST OVER 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP SATURDAY
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THIS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATION GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND REMAIN SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR LATE APRIL BUT SHOULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN AND SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH WILL ALSO HELP MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE RAW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE LONG RANGE. WHILE MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED, STILL
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE PESKY LOW LINGERS. THIS LOW
SHOULD FINALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM HUL NORTHWARD. SNOW WILL END LATER THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. MVFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING...AND LIFT TO VFR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
IFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF HUL EN ROUTE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE
IN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MOST OF MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE. NO FURTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ON THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY TO NEAR SCA LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...MCW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...MCW/FITZSIMMONS









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 241914
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN GENERATING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM MAINE THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY PROVIDING A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF NICE
WEATHER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW
REMAINS OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THEY WILL FINALLY DECOUPLE. AS EXPECTED...WINDS TODAY HAVE
HELD JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA PULLS FURTHER AWAY EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE AND SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A BIT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. A PRIMARY LOW TO OUR NW MOVES SLOWLY NE AND WEAKENS WHILE
A SECONDARY LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING S FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR S AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. THIS COMPLEX
WX PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN...OR EVEN A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH
COLD TEMPS AND A RAW EASTERLY WIND ON SATURDAY. THE VERTICAL TEMP
PROFILE SHOWS THE COLUMN COOLING DUE TO EVAPORATION AND VERTICAL
MOTION... WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH OT SUPPORT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW OVER MORE NRN AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE
TOO WARM AT LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRCP.

THE SECONDARY LOW BECOMES THE MAIN LOW AND MOVES E INTO THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY NGT AS THE PRIMARY LOW WASHES OUT. THIS BRINGS AN
END TO STEADIER PRCP BUT WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
DRIFTING OVERHEAD WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS...OF RAIN OR SNOW
...TO PERSIST THRU THE NGT AS TEMPS CONT TO COOL DOWN. AGAIN THE
BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE N/MT AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE E ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONT TO
GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN N/MT AREAS DUE TO WARMING BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE DAY.

THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
THOUGH IT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WX THE IMPACT WILL LESSEN
SOMEWHAT AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE N/MT AREAS WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

THE CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES E AS A RIDGE ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD E INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS BREAK IN
THE WET WX WILL BE SHORT LIVES AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WRN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A SFC LOW AND
LEADING WARM FNT NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AT THE SAME TIME HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL TO OUR N OVER ERN CANADA. THESE TWO
WX SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO IMPACT OUR WX...WITH THE HIGH PROVIDING FAIR
WX TO OUR N AND THE LOW PROVIDING WET WX TO OUR S...WITH THE FCST
AREA IN BETWEEN WITH THE CHC OF RAIN GREATER OVER SRN AREAS AND
LOWER OVER NRN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TAF
SITES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PERIODS OF RAIN OR EVEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY N/MT AREAS IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING AND DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
RESPOND BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING BEFORE MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...E NE FLOW INCREASES
SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS AND SCA SEAS POSSIBLE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH
MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF
MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
SEAS MAY BE SLOWER TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YORK COUNTY THROUGH 8PM
THIS EVENING. MOST METAR SITES IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE
REPORTING CONDITIONS THAT MEET OR EXCEED RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE MAINTAINS THAT FUELS ARE
TOO WET TO BURN SO NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL/CAPRIOLA







000
FXUS61 KGYX 241914
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN GENERATING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM MAINE THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY PROVIDING A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF NICE
WEATHER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW
REMAINS OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THEY WILL FINALLY DECOUPLE. AS EXPECTED...WINDS TODAY HAVE
HELD JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA PULLS FURTHER AWAY EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE AND SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A BIT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. A PRIMARY LOW TO OUR NW MOVES SLOWLY NE AND WEAKENS WHILE
A SECONDARY LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING S FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR S AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. THIS COMPLEX
WX PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN...OR EVEN A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH
COLD TEMPS AND A RAW EASTERLY WIND ON SATURDAY. THE VERTICAL TEMP
PROFILE SHOWS THE COLUMN COOLING DUE TO EVAPORATION AND VERTICAL
MOTION... WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH OT SUPPORT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW OVER MORE NRN AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE
TOO WARM AT LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRCP.

THE SECONDARY LOW BECOMES THE MAIN LOW AND MOVES E INTO THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY NGT AS THE PRIMARY LOW WASHES OUT. THIS BRINGS AN
END TO STEADIER PRCP BUT WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
DRIFTING OVERHEAD WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS...OF RAIN OR SNOW
...TO PERSIST THRU THE NGT AS TEMPS CONT TO COOL DOWN. AGAIN THE
BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE N/MT AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE E ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONT TO
GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN N/MT AREAS DUE TO WARMING BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE DAY.

THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
THOUGH IT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WX THE IMPACT WILL LESSEN
SOMEWHAT AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE N/MT AREAS WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

THE CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES E AS A RIDGE ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD E INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS BREAK IN
THE WET WX WILL BE SHORT LIVES AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WRN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A SFC LOW AND
LEADING WARM FNT NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AT THE SAME TIME HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL TO OUR N OVER ERN CANADA. THESE TWO
WX SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO IMPACT OUR WX...WITH THE HIGH PROVIDING FAIR
WX TO OUR N AND THE LOW PROVIDING WET WX TO OUR S...WITH THE FCST
AREA IN BETWEEN WITH THE CHC OF RAIN GREATER OVER SRN AREAS AND
LOWER OVER NRN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TAF
SITES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PERIODS OF RAIN OR EVEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY N/MT AREAS IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING AND DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
RESPOND BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING BEFORE MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...E NE FLOW INCREASES
SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS AND SCA SEAS POSSIBLE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH
MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF
MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
SEAS MAY BE SLOWER TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YORK COUNTY THROUGH 8PM
THIS EVENING. MOST METAR SITES IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE
REPORTING CONDITIONS THAT MEET OR EXCEED RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE MAINTAINS THAT FUELS ARE
TOO WET TO BURN SO NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL/CAPRIOLA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 241712
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1PM UPDATE:
REDUCED HIGHS FOR TODAY. INCREASED POPS IN NE PART OF FORECAST
AREA. REDUCED MENTION OF RAIN IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN FAVOR OF
SNOW. ADDED UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION FOR NE
AROOSTOOK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO INCREASED QPF IN
NE CORNER OF FORECAST AREA BASED ON TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF W/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SE OF
THE AREA CONTS TO SUPPORT DEEP SFC LOW PRES JUST S OF NS ATTM. AS
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IT WILL
CONT TO BE SLOW TO PULL EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY W/ MOISTURE
CONTG TO BE PULLED NWWRD UP INTO SPCLY OUR ERN AREAS ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH XTNDS NWWRD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN
MAINE/WRN NB ATTM. AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF ALONG THE NRN AND NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD (NRN/NERN FA) THAT WET SNOW IS
OCCURRING AND COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FA INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. OVERALL...MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS W/ HYST POPS/QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
ERN/NERN AREAS TODAY W/ 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS NRN AND NWRN
AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND PULL MOSTLY
OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED W/ A SFC RIDGE
BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
LEAVE HOWEVER SO EXPECT CLDS TO HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF TNGT ALL
BUT SRN/SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA WHERE DOWNSLOPING NWRLY WNDS SHOULD
HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER. NW WNDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK
SPCLY SRN/SWRN AREAS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO NR 40 MPH ARE PSBL.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND TNGT...
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT A
DRY DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A
BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER
MOVES EAST. MODEL RH INDICATES THAT FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY
IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKER. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 20S, SO SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE START,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SO EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FOR SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
AREA WIDE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TO BE COOL AND DAMP AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOWS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW IS
GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES CURRENT
INTO TNGT W/ MVFR CONDS PSBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. EXPECT VFR
TO HIGH MVFR ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS
AM.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER, IMPROVING CEILINGS MEANS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL
REACH VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN
SITES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED W/ OCNL MARGINAL GLWS PSBL
AT TIMES...

SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND MAKE CHANGES
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 241712
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1PM UPDATE:
REDUCED HIGHS FOR TODAY. INCREASED POPS IN NE PART OF FORECAST
AREA. REDUCED MENTION OF RAIN IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN FAVOR OF
SNOW. ADDED UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION FOR NE
AROOSTOOK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO INCREASED QPF IN
NE CORNER OF FORECAST AREA BASED ON TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF W/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SE OF
THE AREA CONTS TO SUPPORT DEEP SFC LOW PRES JUST S OF NS ATTM. AS
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IT WILL
CONT TO BE SLOW TO PULL EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY W/ MOISTURE
CONTG TO BE PULLED NWWRD UP INTO SPCLY OUR ERN AREAS ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH XTNDS NWWRD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN
MAINE/WRN NB ATTM. AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF ALONG THE NRN AND NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD (NRN/NERN FA) THAT WET SNOW IS
OCCURRING AND COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FA INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. OVERALL...MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS W/ HYST POPS/QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
ERN/NERN AREAS TODAY W/ 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS NRN AND NWRN
AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND PULL MOSTLY
OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED W/ A SFC RIDGE
BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
LEAVE HOWEVER SO EXPECT CLDS TO HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF TNGT ALL
BUT SRN/SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA WHERE DOWNSLOPING NWRLY WNDS SHOULD
HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER. NW WNDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK
SPCLY SRN/SWRN AREAS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO NR 40 MPH ARE PSBL.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND TNGT...
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT A
DRY DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A
BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER
MOVES EAST. MODEL RH INDICATES THAT FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY
IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKER. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 20S, SO SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE START,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SO EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FOR SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
AREA WIDE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TO BE COOL AND DAMP AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOWS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW IS
GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES CURRENT
INTO TNGT W/ MVFR CONDS PSBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. EXPECT VFR
TO HIGH MVFR ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS
AM.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER, IMPROVING CEILINGS MEANS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL
REACH VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN
SITES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED W/ OCNL MARGINAL GLWS PSBL
AT TIMES...

SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND MAKE CHANGES
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 241607
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1207 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1600Z UPDATE---
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 40MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY IN MAINE ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING RH
VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT THESE VALUES TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UNTIL AROUND
NIGHTFALL WHEN THEY SHOULD DECOUPLE. RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD
FOR YORK COUNTY AND WILL LEAVE IT IN PLACE. EVEN THOUGH
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ARE/WILL BE MET OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL NOT ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING. NEW
HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE TELLS US THAT THE FUELS ARE STILL TOO WET
FOR ANY PROBLEMS TO OCCUR.

---1300Z UPDATE--- MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
5 DEGREES LOWER THAN WERE EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY... MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE SOLIDLY IN RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE STILL DOES
NOT WANT ANY HEADLINES AS THEY FEEL THE FUELS ARE STILL TOO WET TO
BURN. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DOWN IN THE TEENS
TO LOWE 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING AT MOST PLACES
TO AROUND 40MPH. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YORK
COUNTY IN MAINE AND LOOKS ON TRACK TO SEE THOSE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO DROP DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TREND AS WELL AS
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 990 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENT THAT SHOULD FALL JUST
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST LATER TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH A LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS DUELING LOW CENTERS WITH A NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ONE TRACKING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULTING
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY THE DUELING LOWS CIRCLE TOGETHER OFFSHORE
AS A 500MB CUT OFF DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ATLANTIC PROVINCES AS WELL AS THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER CUT
OFF LOWS WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FILLS IN THE GAP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA
RIGHT IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STATIONARY LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE EASTERN MAINE LOOKS TO
SEE LIGHT RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE MOVE WEST IT
GETS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS EAST WEST GRADIENT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBLEMATIC AS WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE
EASTERNMOST REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT PRECIP AND
OVERCAST SKIES.

SOME MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
PARADOXICALLY RESULT IN COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS FLOW ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS ONSHORE. THIS QUICK RIDGE IS
THEN FOLLOW BY A MAJOR LOW TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES
IN TERMS OF WHEN THE BLOCK MIGHT PROGRESS, AND HAVE OPTED TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN A BIT...PUSHING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA
BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CEILINGS WILL DESCEND INTO
MVFR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE
INTENSE OCEAN LOW...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL BE QUIET ON THE WATERS. DESPITE THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA AS THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. THE CALM CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
---1600Z UPDATE---
SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

---1300Z UPDATE---
SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TODAY OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE THERE FOR NOW. IN YORK COUNTY MAINE...WE EXPECT SIMILAR
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER FUELS AND A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. I EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241607
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1207 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1600Z UPDATE---
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 40MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY IN MAINE ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING RH
VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT THESE VALUES TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UNTIL AROUND
NIGHTFALL WHEN THEY SHOULD DECOUPLE. RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD
FOR YORK COUNTY AND WILL LEAVE IT IN PLACE. EVEN THOUGH
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ARE/WILL BE MET OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL NOT ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING. NEW
HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE TELLS US THAT THE FUELS ARE STILL TOO WET
FOR ANY PROBLEMS TO OCCUR.

---1300Z UPDATE--- MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
5 DEGREES LOWER THAN WERE EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY... MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE SOLIDLY IN RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE STILL DOES
NOT WANT ANY HEADLINES AS THEY FEEL THE FUELS ARE STILL TOO WET TO
BURN. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DOWN IN THE TEENS
TO LOWE 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING AT MOST PLACES
TO AROUND 40MPH. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YORK
COUNTY IN MAINE AND LOOKS ON TRACK TO SEE THOSE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO DROP DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TREND AS WELL AS
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 990 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENT THAT SHOULD FALL JUST
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST LATER TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH A LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS DUELING LOW CENTERS WITH A NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ONE TRACKING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULTING
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY THE DUELING LOWS CIRCLE TOGETHER OFFSHORE
AS A 500MB CUT OFF DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ATLANTIC PROVINCES AS WELL AS THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER CUT
OFF LOWS WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FILLS IN THE GAP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA
RIGHT IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STATIONARY LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE EASTERN MAINE LOOKS TO
SEE LIGHT RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE MOVE WEST IT
GETS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS EAST WEST GRADIENT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBLEMATIC AS WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE
EASTERNMOST REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT PRECIP AND
OVERCAST SKIES.

SOME MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
PARADOXICALLY RESULT IN COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS FLOW ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS ONSHORE. THIS QUICK RIDGE IS
THEN FOLLOW BY A MAJOR LOW TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES
IN TERMS OF WHEN THE BLOCK MIGHT PROGRESS, AND HAVE OPTED TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN A BIT...PUSHING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA
BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CEILINGS WILL DESCEND INTO
MVFR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE
INTENSE OCEAN LOW...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL BE QUIET ON THE WATERS. DESPITE THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA AS THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. THE CALM CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
---1600Z UPDATE---
SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

---1300Z UPDATE---
SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TODAY OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE THERE FOR NOW. IN YORK COUNTY MAINE...WE EXPECT SIMILAR
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER FUELS AND A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. I EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL






000
FXUS61 KCAR 241409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10AM UPDATE:
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOWER
INTENSITY SNOW. THE EXCEPTION IS ELEVATIONS OVER 1000 FT IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXTENDED THE DURATION OF SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING AWAY AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS OVER...BUT RAIN AND SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY
WITH ANOTHER FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF W/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SE OF
THE AREA CONTS TO SUPPORT DEEP SFC LOW PRES JUST S OF NS ATTM. AS
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IT WILL
CONT TO BE SLOW TO PULL EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY W/ MOISTURE
CONTG TO BE PULLED NWWRD UP INTO SPCLY OUR ERN AREAS ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH XTNDS NWWRD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN
MAINE/WRN NB ATTM. AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF ALONG THE NRN AND NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD (NRN/NERN FA) THAT WET SNOW IS
OCCURRING AND COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FA INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. OVERALL...MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS W/ HYST POPS/QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
ERN/NERN AREAS TODAY W/ 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS NRN AND NWRN
AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND PULL MOSTLY
OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED W/ A SFC RIDGE
BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
LEAVE HOWEVER SO EXPECT CLDS TO HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF TNGT ALL
BUT SRN/SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA WHERE DOWNSLOPING NWRLY WNDS SHOULD
HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER. NW WNDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK
SPCLY SRN/SWRN AREAS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO NR 40 MPH ARE PSBL.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND TNGT... &&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT A
DRY DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A
BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER
MOVES EAST. MODEL RH INDICATES THAT FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY
IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKER. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 20S, SO SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE START,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SO EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FOR SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
AREA WIDE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TO BE COOL AND DAMP AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOWS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW IS
GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES CURRENT
INTO TNGT W/ MVFR CONDS PSBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. EXPECT VFR
TO HIGH MVFR ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS
AM.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER, IMPROVING CEILINGS MEANS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL
REACH VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN
SITES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED W/ OCNL MARGINAL GLWS PSBL
AT TIMES...

SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND MAKE CHANGES
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 241312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1300Z UPDATE---
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN
WERE EXPECTED YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY... MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BE SOLIDLY IN RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...THE NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE STILL DOES NOT WANT ANY
HEADLINES AS THEY FEEL THE FUELS ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DOWN IN THE TEENS TO
LOWE 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING AT MOST PLACES TO
AROUND 40MPH. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YORK COUNTY
IN MAINE AND LOOKS ON TRACK TO SEE THOSE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO DROP DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TREND AS WELL AS
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 990 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENT THAT SHOULD FALL JUST
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST LATER TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH A LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS DUELING LOW CENTERS WITH A NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ONE TRACKING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULTING
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY THE DUELING LOWS CIRCLE TOGETHER OFFSHORE
AS A 500MB CUT OFF DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ATLANTIC PROVINCES AS WELL AS THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER CUT
OFF LOWS WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FILLS IN THE GAP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA
RIGHT IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STATIONARY LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE EASTERN MAINE LOOKS TO
SEE LIGHT RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE MOVE WEST IT
GETS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS EAST WEST GRADIENT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBLEMATIC AS WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE
EASTERNMOST REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT PRECIP AND
OVERCAST SKIES.

SOME MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
PARADOXICALLY RESULT IN COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS FLOW ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS ONSHORE. THIS QUICK RIDGE IS
THEN FOLLOW BY A MAJOR LOW TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES
IN TERMS OF WHEN THE BLOCK MIGHT PROGRESS, AND HAVE OPTED TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN A BIT...PUSHING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA
BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CEILINGS WILL DESCEND INTO
MVFR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE
INTENSE OCEAN LOW...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL BE QUIET ON THE WATERS. DESPITE THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA AS THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. THE CALM CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
---1300Z UPDATE---
SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TODAY OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE THERE FOR NOW. IN YORK COUNTY MAINE...WE EXPECT SIMILAR
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER FUELS AND A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. I EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL






000
FXUS61 KCAR 241024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: MOISTURE CONTS TO WRAP WNWWRD INTO THE AREA FROM NB AS
DEEP SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM S OF NS CONTS TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THIS PRECIP IS MOSTLY RAIN S OF A KHUL-KMLT LINE W/ WET SNOW TO THE
N. RPTS OF 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE N ATTM W/ A LITTLE
MORE PSBL INTO THE ERLY AM HRS BEFORE TEMPS WARM ENUF TO CHANGE
THINGS BACK TO MOSTLY JUST A COLD RAIN. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS AND
ADJUSTED WX GRIDS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT PRECIP TYPES. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES ATTM...

STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF W/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SE OF
THE AREA CONTS TO SUPPORT DEEP SFC LOW PRES JUST S OF NS ATTM. AS
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IT WILL
CONT TO BE SLOW TO PULL EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY W/ MOISTURE
CONTG TO BE PULLED NWWRD UP INTO SPCLY OUR ERN AREAS ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH XTNDS NWWRD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN
MAINE/WRN NB ATTM. AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF ALONG THE NRN AND NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD (NRN/NERN FA) THAT WET SNOW IS
OCCURRING AND COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FA INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. OVERALL...MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS W/ HYST POPS/QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
ERN/NERN AREAS TODAY W/ 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS NRN AND
NWRN AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND PULL
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED W/ A SFC
RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO LEAVE HOWEVER SO EXPECT CLDS TO HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF
TNGT ALL BUT SRN/SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA WHERE DOWNSLOPING NWRLY
WNDS SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER. NW WNDS WILL BE
QUITE BRISK SPCLY SRN/SWRN AREAS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO NR 40 MPH
ARE PSBL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND TNGT...

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT A
DRY DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A
BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER
MOVES EAST. MODEL RH INDICATES THAT FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY
IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKER. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 20S, SO SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE START,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SO EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FOR SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TO BE COOL AND DAMP AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOWS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW IS
GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES CURRENT
INTO TNGT W/ MVFR CONDS PSBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. EXPECT VFR
TO HIGH MVFR ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS
AM.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER, IMPROVING CEILINGS MEANS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL
REACH VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN
SITES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED W/ OCNL MARGINAL GLWS PSBL
AT TIMES...

SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND MAKE CHANGES
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 241024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: MOISTURE CONTS TO WRAP WNWWRD INTO THE AREA FROM NB AS
DEEP SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM S OF NS CONTS TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THIS PRECIP IS MOSTLY RAIN S OF A KHUL-KMLT LINE W/ WET SNOW TO THE
N. RPTS OF 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE N ATTM W/ A LITTLE
MORE PSBL INTO THE ERLY AM HRS BEFORE TEMPS WARM ENUF TO CHANGE
THINGS BACK TO MOSTLY JUST A COLD RAIN. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS AND
ADJUSTED WX GRIDS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT PRECIP TYPES. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES ATTM...

STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF W/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SE OF
THE AREA CONTS TO SUPPORT DEEP SFC LOW PRES JUST S OF NS ATTM. AS
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IT WILL
CONT TO BE SLOW TO PULL EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY W/ MOISTURE
CONTG TO BE PULLED NWWRD UP INTO SPCLY OUR ERN AREAS ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH XTNDS NWWRD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN
MAINE/WRN NB ATTM. AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF ALONG THE NRN AND NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD (NRN/NERN FA) THAT WET SNOW IS
OCCURRING AND COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FA INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. OVERALL...MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS W/ HYST POPS/QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
ERN/NERN AREAS TODAY W/ 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS NRN AND
NWRN AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND PULL
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED W/ A SFC
RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO LEAVE HOWEVER SO EXPECT CLDS TO HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF
TNGT ALL BUT SRN/SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA WHERE DOWNSLOPING NWRLY
WNDS SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER. NW WNDS WILL BE
QUITE BRISK SPCLY SRN/SWRN AREAS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO NR 40 MPH
ARE PSBL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND TNGT...

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT A
DRY DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A
BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER
MOVES EAST. MODEL RH INDICATES THAT FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY
IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKER. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 20S, SO SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE START,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SO EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FOR SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TO BE COOL AND DAMP AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOWS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW IS
GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES CURRENT
INTO TNGT W/ MVFR CONDS PSBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. EXPECT VFR
TO HIGH MVFR ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS
AM.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER, IMPROVING CEILINGS MEANS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL
REACH VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN
SITES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED W/ OCNL MARGINAL GLWS PSBL
AT TIMES...

SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND MAKE CHANGES
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 241003
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TREND AS WELL AS
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 990 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENT THAT SHOULD FALL JUST
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST LATER TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH A LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS DUELING LOW CENTERS WITH A NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ONE TRACKING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULTING
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY THE DUELING LOWS CIRCLE TOGETHER OFFSHORE
AS A 500MB CUT OFF DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ATLANTIC PROVINCES AS WELL AS THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER CUT
OFF LOWS WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FILLS IN THE GAP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA
RIGHT IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STATIONARY LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE EASTERN MAINE LOOKS TO
SEE LIGHT RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE MOVE WEST IT
GETS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS EAST WEST GRADIENT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBLEMATIC AS WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE
EASTERNMOST REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT PRECIP AND
OVERCAST SKIES.

SOME MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
PARADOXICALLY RESULT IN COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS FLOW ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS ONSHORE. THIS QUICK RIDGE IS
THEN FOLLOW BY A MAJOR LOW TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES
IN TERMS OF WHEN THE BLOCK MIGHT PROGRESS, AND HAVE OPTED TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN A BIT...PUSHING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA
BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CEILINGS WILL DESCEND INTO
MVFR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE
INTENSE OCEAN LOW...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL BE QUIET ON THE WATERS. DESPITE THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA AS THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. THE CALM CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TODAY OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE THERE FOR NOW. IN YORK COUNTY MAINE...WE EXPECT SIMILAR
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER FUELS AND A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. I EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 241003
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TREND AS WELL AS
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 990 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENT THAT SHOULD FALL JUST
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST LATER TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH A LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS DUELING LOW CENTERS WITH A NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ONE TRACKING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULTING
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY THE DUELING LOWS CIRCLE TOGETHER OFFSHORE
AS A 500MB CUT OFF DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ATLANTIC PROVINCES AS WELL AS THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER CUT
OFF LOWS WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FILLS IN THE GAP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA
RIGHT IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STATIONARY LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE EASTERN MAINE LOOKS TO
SEE LIGHT RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE MOVE WEST IT
GETS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS EAST WEST GRADIENT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBLEMATIC AS WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE
EASTERNMOST REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT PRECIP AND
OVERCAST SKIES.

SOME MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
PARADOXICALLY RESULT IN COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS FLOW ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS ONSHORE. THIS QUICK RIDGE IS
THEN FOLLOW BY A MAJOR LOW TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES
IN TERMS OF WHEN THE BLOCK MIGHT PROGRESS, AND HAVE OPTED TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN A BIT...PUSHING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA
BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CEILINGS WILL DESCEND INTO
MVFR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE
INTENSE OCEAN LOW...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL BE QUIET ON THE WATERS. DESPITE THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA AS THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. THE CALM CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TODAY OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE THERE FOR NOW. IN YORK COUNTY MAINE...WE EXPECT SIMILAR
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER FUELS AND A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. I EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 240714
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.



&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 990 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENT THAT SHOULD FALL JUST
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST LATER TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH A LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS DUALING LOW CENTERS WITH A NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ONE TRACKING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULTING
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY THE DUALING LOWS CIRCLE TOGETHER OFFSHORE
AS A 500MB CUT OFF DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ATLANTIC PROVINCES AS WELL AS THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER CUT
OFF LOWS WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FILLS IN THE GAP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA
RIGHT IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STATIONARY LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE EASTERN MAINE LOOKS TO
SEE LIGHT RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE MOVE WEST IT
GETS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS EAST WEST GRADIENT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBLEMATIC AS WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE
EASTERNMOST REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT PRECIP AND
OVERCAST SKIES.

SOME MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
PARADOXICALLY RESULT IN COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS FLOW ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS ONSHORE. THIS QUICK RIDGE IS
THEN FOLLOW BY A MAJOR LOW TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES
IN TERMS OF WHEN THE BLOCK MIGHT PROGRESS, AND HAVE OPTED TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN A BIT...PUSHING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA
BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.




&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CEILINGS WILL DESCEND INTO
MVFR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE
INTENSE OCEAN LOW...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL BE QUIET ON THE WATERS. DESPITE THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA AS THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. THE CALM CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TODAY OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE THERE FOR NOW. IN YORK COUNTY MAINE...WE EXPECT SIMILAR
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER FUELS AND A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. I EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CURTIS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 240714
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.



&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 990 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EVENT THAT SHOULD FALL JUST
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST LATER TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH A LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS DUALING LOW CENTERS WITH A NORTHERN LOW TRACKING
UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ONE TRACKING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULTING
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY THE DUALING LOWS CIRCLE TOGETHER OFFSHORE
AS A 500MB CUT OFF DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ATLANTIC PROVINCES AS WELL AS THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER CUT
OFF LOWS WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FILLS IN THE GAP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA
RIGHT IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STATIONARY LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE EASTERN MAINE LOOKS TO
SEE LIGHT RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE MOVE WEST IT
GETS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS EAST WEST GRADIENT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME PROBLEMATIC AS WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE
EASTERNMOST REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT PRECIP AND
OVERCAST SKIES.

SOME MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
PARADOXICALLY RESULT IN COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS FLOW ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS ONSHORE. THIS QUICK RIDGE IS
THEN FOLLOW BY A MAJOR LOW TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES
IN TERMS OF WHEN THE BLOCK MIGHT PROGRESS, AND HAVE OPTED TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN A BIT...PUSHING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA
BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.




&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CEILINGS WILL DESCEND INTO
MVFR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE
INTENSE OCEAN LOW...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL BE QUIET ON THE WATERS. DESPITE THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA AS THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. THE CALM CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TODAY OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE THERE FOR NOW. IN YORK COUNTY MAINE...WE EXPECT SIMILAR
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER FUELS AND A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. I EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CURTIS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 240709
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
309 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF W/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SE OF
THE AREA CONTS TO SUPPORT DEEP SFC LOW PRES JUST S OF NS ATTM. AS
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IT WILL
CONT TO BE SLOW TO PULL EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY W/ MOISTURE
CONTG TO BE PULLED NWWRD UP INTO SPCLY OUR ERN AREAS ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH XTNDS NWWRD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN
MAINE/WRN NB ATTM. AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF ALONG THE NRN AND NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD (NRN/NERN FA) THAT WET SNOW IS
OCCURRING AND COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FA INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. OVERALL...MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS W/ HYST POPS/QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
ERN/NERN AREAS TODAY W/ 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS NRN AND
NWRN AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND PULL
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED W/ A SFC
RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO LEAVE HOWEVER SO EXPECT CLDS TO HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF
TNGT ALL BUT SRN/SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA WHERE DOWNSLOPING NWRLY
WNDS SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER. NW WNDS WILL BE
QUITE BRISK SPCLY SRN/SWRN AREAS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO NR 40 MPH
ARE PSBL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND TNGT...

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT A
DRY DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A
BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER
MOVES EAST. MODEL RH INDICATES THAT FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY
IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKER. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 20S, SO SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE START,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SO EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FOR SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TO BE COOL AND DAMP AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOWS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW IS
GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES CURRENT
INTO TNGT W/ MVFR CONDS PSBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. EXPECT VFR
TO HIGH MVFR ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS
AM.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER, IMPROVING CEILINGS MEANS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL
REACH VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN
SITES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED W/ OCNL MARGINAL GLWS PSBL
AT TIMES...

SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND MAKE CHANGES
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 240709
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
309 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF W/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SE OF
THE AREA CONTS TO SUPPORT DEEP SFC LOW PRES JUST S OF NS ATTM. AS
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IT WILL
CONT TO BE SLOW TO PULL EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY W/ MOISTURE
CONTG TO BE PULLED NWWRD UP INTO SPCLY OUR ERN AREAS ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH XTNDS NWWRD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN
MAINE/WRN NB ATTM. AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF ALONG THE NRN AND NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD (NRN/NERN FA) THAT WET SNOW IS
OCCURRING AND COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FA INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. OVERALL...MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS W/ HYST POPS/QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
ERN/NERN AREAS TODAY W/ 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS NRN AND
NWRN AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND PULL
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED W/ A SFC
RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO LEAVE HOWEVER SO EXPECT CLDS TO HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF
TNGT ALL BUT SRN/SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA WHERE DOWNSLOPING NWRLY
WNDS SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER. NW WNDS WILL BE
QUITE BRISK SPCLY SRN/SWRN AREAS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO NR 40 MPH
ARE PSBL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND TNGT...

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT A
DRY DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A
BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER
MOVES EAST. MODEL RH INDICATES THAT FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY
IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKER. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 20S, SO SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE START,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SO EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FOR SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TO BE COOL AND DAMP AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOWS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW IS
GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES CURRENT
INTO TNGT W/ MVFR CONDS PSBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. EXPECT VFR
TO HIGH MVFR ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS
AM.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER, IMPROVING CEILINGS MEANS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL
REACH VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN
SITES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED W/ OCNL MARGINAL GLWS PSBL
AT TIMES...

SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND MAKE CHANGES
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 240520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: PRECIP CONTS TO SPREAD NWWRD ACROSS OUR ERN/NERN AREAS...
AS THIS PRECIP PUSHES INTO THE COLDER AIR...EXPECT SOME WET SNOW
TO DVLP AND ALREADY SEEING THAT AT KFVE W/ A FEW INCHES PSBL LATER
TNGT INTO THU AM ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
ACCUMS BUT ATTM FCST AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OVER THE NE AND 1-3
OVR THE FAR N AND NW APPEARS REASONABLE. CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON
TRACK ATTM W/ NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN
MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A
FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CIGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS
GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA
AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ADD`L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/VJN
MARINE...KHW/MCW/VJN
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 240520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: PRECIP CONTS TO SPREAD NWWRD ACROSS OUR ERN/NERN AREAS...
AS THIS PRECIP PUSHES INTO THE COLDER AIR...EXPECT SOME WET SNOW
TO DVLP AND ALREADY SEEING THAT AT KFVE W/ A FEW INCHES PSBL LATER
TNGT INTO THU AM ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
ACCUMS BUT ATTM FCST AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OVER THE NE AND 1-3
OVR THE FAR N AND NW APPEARS REASONABLE. CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON
TRACK ATTM W/ NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN
MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A
FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CIGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS
GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA
AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ADD`L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/VJN
MARINE...KHW/MCW/VJN
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 240520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: PRECIP CONTS TO SPREAD NWWRD ACROSS OUR ERN/NERN AREAS...
AS THIS PRECIP PUSHES INTO THE COLDER AIR...EXPECT SOME WET SNOW
TO DVLP AND ALREADY SEEING THAT AT KFVE W/ A FEW INCHES PSBL LATER
TNGT INTO THU AM ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
ACCUMS BUT ATTM FCST AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OVER THE NE AND 1-3
OVR THE FAR N AND NW APPEARS REASONABLE. CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON
TRACK ATTM W/ NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN
MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A
FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CIGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS
GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA
AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ADD`L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/VJN
MARINE...KHW/MCW/VJN
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 240520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: PRECIP CONTS TO SPREAD NWWRD ACROSS OUR ERN/NERN AREAS...
AS THIS PRECIP PUSHES INTO THE COLDER AIR...EXPECT SOME WET SNOW
TO DVLP AND ALREADY SEEING THAT AT KFVE W/ A FEW INCHES PSBL LATER
TNGT INTO THU AM ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
ACCUMS BUT ATTM FCST AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OVER THE NE AND 1-3
OVR THE FAR N AND NW APPEARS REASONABLE. CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON
TRACK ATTM W/ NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN
MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A
FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CIGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS
GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA
AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ADD`L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/VJN
MARINE...KHW/MCW/VJN
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 240351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOMORROW IT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A THREAT
OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WE WILL SEE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS
TO GUST TO AROUND 40MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
45MPH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THINK THEY SHOULD HOLD JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON
DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT STILL
KEEP US DRY THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
LATE IN THE DAY OVER NH. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD PRCP ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E FRIDAY NGT AND CONT
THRU SATURDAY NGT. PRCP ENDS FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY GIVING US A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRCP. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SW BRINGS A THREAT OF
RAIN TUESDAY /MOST LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY/ AND WEDNESDAY.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
ENDING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW
BEFORE SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR NOW. EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT TOMORROW. WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE HWO ALSO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 240351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOMORROW IT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A THREAT
OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WE WILL SEE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS
TO GUST TO AROUND 40MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
45MPH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THINK THEY SHOULD HOLD JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON
DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT STILL
KEEP US DRY THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
LATE IN THE DAY OVER NH. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD PRCP ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E FRIDAY NGT AND CONT
THRU SATURDAY NGT. PRCP ENDS FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY GIVING US A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRCP. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SW BRINGS A THREAT OF
RAIN TUESDAY /MOST LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY/ AND WEDNESDAY.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
ENDING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW
BEFORE SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR NOW. EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT TOMORROW. WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE HWO ALSO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KCAR 240142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
942 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL ALSO PULL EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND
NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY FALLEN
JUST BELOW FREEZING AT KFVE. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT ALL LEVELS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE SFC-810 MILLIBARS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPS A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THEY ARE AT OR BELOW FORECAST
LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN
MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A
FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS
GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA
AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ADD`L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
         ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/VJN
MARINE...CB/MCW/VJN
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 240142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
942 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL ALSO PULL EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND
NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY FALLEN
JUST BELOW FREEZING AT KFVE. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT ALL LEVELS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE SFC-810 MILLIBARS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPS A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THEY ARE AT OR BELOW FORECAST
LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN
MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A
FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS
GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA
AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ADD`L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
         ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/VJN
MARINE...CB/MCW/VJN
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 240142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
942 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL ALSO PULL EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND
NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY FALLEN
JUST BELOW FREEZING AT KFVE. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT ALL LEVELS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE SFC-810 MILLIBARS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPS A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THEY ARE AT OR BELOW FORECAST
LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN
MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A
FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS
GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA
AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ADD`L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
         ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/VJN
MARINE...CB/MCW/VJN
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 240142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
942 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL ALSO PULL EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND
NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY FALLEN
JUST BELOW FREEZING AT KFVE. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT ALL LEVELS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE SFC-810 MILLIBARS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPS A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THEY ARE AT OR BELOW FORECAST
LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN
MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A
FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS
GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA
AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ADD`L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
         ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/VJN
MARINE...CB/MCW/VJN
HYDROLOGY...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 232247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
647 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALSO PULL
EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK
AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. BUMPED
UP THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATERS ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF BAR HARBOR. ALTHOUGH ODDS FAVOR ANY LIGHTNING
REMAINING OFFSHORE THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRIKE OR TWO
REACHING THE COAST THROUGH MID-EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT
ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE
TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST
OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL
BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR BHB AND BGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LOW-TOP EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR BHB THIS EVENING. FROM HUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CAR AND FVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE AT FVE. WINDS WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER
HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/VJN/CB
MARINE...MCW/VJN/CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 232247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
647 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALSO PULL
EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK
AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. BUMPED
UP THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATERS ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF BAR HARBOR. ALTHOUGH ODDS FAVOR ANY LIGHTNING
REMAINING OFFSHORE THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRIKE OR TWO
REACHING THE COAST THROUGH MID-EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT
ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE
TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST
OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL
BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR BHB AND BGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LOW-TOP EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR BHB THIS EVENING. FROM HUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CAR AND FVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE AT FVE. WINDS WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER
HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/VJN/CB
MARINE...MCW/VJN/CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 232247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
647 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALSO PULL
EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK
AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. BUMPED
UP THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATERS ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF BAR HARBOR. ALTHOUGH ODDS FAVOR ANY LIGHTNING
REMAINING OFFSHORE THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRIKE OR TWO
REACHING THE COAST THROUGH MID-EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT
ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE
TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST
OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL
BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR BHB AND BGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LOW-TOP EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR BHB THIS EVENING. FROM HUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CAR AND FVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE AT FVE. WINDS WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER
HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/VJN/CB
MARINE...MCW/VJN/CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 232247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
647 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALSO PULL
EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK
AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. BUMPED
UP THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATERS ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF BAR HARBOR. ALTHOUGH ODDS FAVOR ANY LIGHTNING
REMAINING OFFSHORE THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRIKE OR TWO
REACHING THE COAST THROUGH MID-EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT
ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE
TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST
OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL
BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR BHB AND BGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LOW-TOP EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR BHB THIS EVENING. FROM HUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CAR AND FVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE AT FVE. WINDS WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER
HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/VJN/CB
MARINE...MCW/VJN/CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 231947
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT
ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE
TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST
OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL
BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR BHB AND BGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LOW-TOP EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR BHB THIS EVENING. FROM HUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CAR AND FVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE AT FVE. WINDS WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER
HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/VJN
MARINE...MCW/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 231947
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT
ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE
TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST
OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL
BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR BHB AND BGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LOW-TOP EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR BHB THIS EVENING. FROM HUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CAR AND FVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE AT FVE. WINDS WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER
HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/VJN
MARINE...MCW/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 231947
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT
ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE
TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST
OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL
BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR BHB AND BGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LOW-TOP EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR BHB THIS EVENING. FROM HUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CAR AND FVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE AT FVE. WINDS WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER
HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/VJN
MARINE...MCW/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 231947
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT
ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE
TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST
OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL
BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR BHB AND BGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LOW-TOP EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR BHB THIS EVENING. FROM HUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CAR AND FVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE AT FVE. WINDS WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER
HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/VJN
MARINE...MCW/VJN










000
FXUS61 KGYX 231923
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOMORROW IT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A THREAT
OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WE WILL SEE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS
TO GUST TO AROUND 40MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
45MPH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THINK THEY SHOULD HOLD JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON
DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT STILL
KEEP US DRY THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
LATE IN THE DAY OVER NH. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD PRCP ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E FRIDAY NGT AND CONT
THRU SATURDAY NGT. PRCP ENDS FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY GIVING US A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRCP. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SW BRINGS A THREAT OF
RAIN TUESDAY /MOST LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY/ AND WEDNESDAY.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
ENDING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW
BEFORE SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR NOW. EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT TOMORROW. WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE HWO ALSO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL/CAPRIOLA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231923
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOMORROW IT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A THREAT
OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WE WILL SEE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS
TO GUST TO AROUND 40MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
45MPH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THINK THEY SHOULD HOLD JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON
DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT STILL
KEEP US DRY THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
LATE IN THE DAY OVER NH. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD PRCP ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E FRIDAY NGT AND CONT
THRU SATURDAY NGT. PRCP ENDS FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY GIVING US A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRCP. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SW BRINGS A THREAT OF
RAIN TUESDAY /MOST LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY/ AND WEDNESDAY.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
ENDING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW
BEFORE SUBSIDING TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY MEET METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE IS TELLING US THAT FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET TO BURN SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR NOW. EXPECT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT TOMORROW. WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE HWO ALSO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL/CAPRIOLA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231727
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE WHILE PART TWO OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROVIDE A RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF WITH A BIT LESS QPF ALONG THE
DOWN EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THE
DEFORMATION BAND APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS A REDUCTION OF A TENTH OR
TWO ON AN INCH OF QPF WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AFTER THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

TOOK YET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SNOW SITUATION FOR TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
CARIBOU TOWARDS GREENVILLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS ABOVE 1000 FT
ELEVATION COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES WHILE LOWER TERRAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE MAY JUST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH QPF TONIGHT IN THIS COLDER NW PART OF THE
STATE TO JUSTIFY HIGHER ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE
THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 231727
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE WHILE PART TWO OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROVIDE A RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF WITH A BIT LESS QPF ALONG THE
DOWN EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THE
DEFORMATION BAND APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS A REDUCTION OF A TENTH OR
TWO ON AN INCH OF QPF WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AFTER THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

TOOK YET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SNOW SITUATION FOR TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
CARIBOU TOWARDS GREENVILLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS ABOVE 1000 FT
ELEVATION COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES WHILE LOWER TERRAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE MAY JUST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH QPF TONIGHT IN THIS COLDER NW PART OF THE
STATE TO JUSTIFY HIGHER ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE
THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 231727
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE WHILE PART TWO OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROVIDE A RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF WITH A BIT LESS QPF ALONG THE
DOWN EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THE
DEFORMATION BAND APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS A REDUCTION OF A TENTH OR
TWO ON AN INCH OF QPF WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AFTER THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

TOOK YET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SNOW SITUATION FOR TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
CARIBOU TOWARDS GREENVILLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS ABOVE 1000 FT
ELEVATION COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES WHILE LOWER TERRAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE MAY JUST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH QPF TONIGHT IN THIS COLDER NW PART OF THE
STATE TO JUSTIFY HIGHER ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE
THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW







000
FXUS61 KCAR 231727
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE WHILE PART TWO OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROVIDE A RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF WITH A BIT LESS QPF ALONG THE
DOWN EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THE
DEFORMATION BAND APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS A REDUCTION OF A TENTH OR
TWO ON AN INCH OF QPF WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AFTER THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

TOOK YET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SNOW SITUATION FOR TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
CARIBOU TOWARDS GREENVILLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS ABOVE 1000 FT
ELEVATION COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES WHILE LOWER TERRAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE MAY JUST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH QPF TONIGHT IN THIS COLDER NW PART OF THE
STATE TO JUSTIFY HIGHER ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE
THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO RETURNED AS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO RETURNED AS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO RETURNED AS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO RETURNED AS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL







000
FXUS61 KCAR 231330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY EXITED THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE WHILE PART TWO OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROVIDE A RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE QPF FORECAST TO SHOW MORE PRECIP FOR THESE AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AFTER THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

TOOK ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SNOW SITUATION FOR TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM CARIBOU
TOWARDS GREENVILLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS ABOVE 1000 FT
ELEVATION COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES WHILE LOWER TERRAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE MAY JUST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH QPF TONIGHT IN THIS COLDER NW PART OF THE
STATE TO JUSTIFY HIGHER ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY EXITED THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE WHILE PART TWO OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROVIDE A RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE QPF FORECAST TO SHOW MORE PRECIP FOR THESE AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AFTER THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

TOOK ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SNOW SITUATION FOR TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM CARIBOU
TOWARDS GREENVILLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS ABOVE 1000 FT
ELEVATION COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES WHILE LOWER TERRAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE MAY JUST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH QPF TONIGHT IN THIS COLDER NW PART OF THE
STATE TO JUSTIFY HIGHER ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231242
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
842 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231242
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
842 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL JUST
ABOUT TO THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER AT THIS TIME. UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION
SO LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ALSO
TRANSITIONED THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SHOWERS AT THIS POINT SINCE
ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERY IN NATURE
UNTIL STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
LATEST RAINFALL DATA FROM HYDROVIEW SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THE PAST SIX HOURS WAS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH
AROUND ONE-HALF /0.50/ TO SIX-TENTHS /0.60/ OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS THE PAST SIX HOURS RANGED FROM
ABOUT A QUARTER /0.25/ TO THREE-TENTHS /0.30/ OF AN INCH. SOME
MINOR RISES WERE SHOWING UP ON THE AREA RIVERS BUT ALL RIVERS WERE
WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS TODAY.
VISIBILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE WERE DOWN TO ABOUT
1 MILE AT BAR HARBOR SO ADDED AREAS OF FOG DOWNEAST AND PATCHY FOG
UP NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LASTLY...HAVE RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY A FEW DEGREES ALL AREAS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS HAVING NOT FALLEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAINFALL JUST
ABOUT TO THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER AT THIS TIME. UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION
SO LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ALSO
TRANSITIONED THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SHOWERS AT THIS POINT SINCE
ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERY IN NATURE
UNTIL STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES BACK IN LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
LATEST RAINFALL DATA FROM HYDROVIEW SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THE PAST SIX HOURS WAS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH
AROUND ONE-HALF /0.50/ TO SIX-TENTHS /0.60/ OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS THE PAST SIX HOURS RANGED FROM
ABOUT A QUARTER /0.25/ TO THREE-TENTHS /0.30/ OF AN INCH. SOME
MINOR RISES WERE SHOWING UP ON THE AREA RIVERS BUT ALL RIVERS WERE
WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS TODAY.
VISIBILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE WERE DOWN TO ABOUT
1 MILE AT BAR HARBOR SO ADDED AREAS OF FOG DOWNEAST AND PATCHY FOG
UP NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LASTLY...HAVE RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY A FEW DEGREES ALL AREAS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS HAVING NOT FALLEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230731
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230731
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230731
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230731
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS
WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST
POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...

&&


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW









000
FXUS61 KGYX 230703
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.




&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230703
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.




&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CURTIS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO STARTING TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 230400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE GULF
OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW WILL MEANDER IN
THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF SOUTH OF
THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AS WELL
AS MESONET.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WENT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT INITIALLY WITH LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING TO FALL INTO SUCH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD IN THE
GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION GETS THROWN BACK INTO NH AND MAINE AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL QPF DURING THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN MAINE. THAT SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME... BUT WE THINK THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST IS GOOD FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS...IT WILL
NOT SEEM LIKE A NICE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WRAP AROUND FORCING
GETS. EITHER WAY...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER?

SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE MID COAST. ELSEWHERE...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BUT NW WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE
DESPITE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW DRIFTING EAST IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AIDS IN THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MOST AREAS FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING WARMTH/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES BY.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR... CONDITIONS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW PRIMARILY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LARGER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN SPOTS. THIS TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS COME TO AN END THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35KT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A MARINE AIR MASS AND THUS
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT
GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FINALLY DROP HEADLINES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEHIND THE NEXT LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 230400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE GULF
OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW WILL MEANDER IN
THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF SOUTH OF
THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AS WELL
AS MESONET.

PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WENT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT INITIALLY WITH LIGHT RAIN
BEGINNING TO FALL INTO SUCH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD IN THE
GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION GETS THROWN BACK INTO NH AND MAINE AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL QPF DURING THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN MAINE. THAT SEEMS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME... BUT WE THINK THE COASTAL PLAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST IS GOOD FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS...IT WILL
NOT SEEM LIKE A NICE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WRAP AROUND FORCING
GETS. EITHER WAY...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER?

SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE MID COAST. ELSEWHERE...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BUT NW WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE
DESPITE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW DRIFTING EAST IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AIDS IN THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MOST AREAS FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING WARMTH/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES BY.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR... CONDITIONS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW PRIMARILY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LARGER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN SPOTS. THIS TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS COME TO AN END THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35KT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A MARINE AIR MASS AND THUS
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT
GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FINALLY DROP HEADLINES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEHIND THE NEXT LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KCAR 230209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: WE DID MOVE UP THE TMG OF HIGHER POPS BY AN HR OR
TWO THIS EVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF SHOWING FASTER FILLING OF
RN REF ACROSS THE FA THEN PREV FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS
OVRNGT WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 9 PM OBS...WITH FCST LOWS
POSTED AT 6 AM MON ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY A DEG OR TWO ACROSS THE N
HLF OF THE FA FROM THE PREV FCST LOW...BASED ON OBSVD-PREV FCST
TEMP TRENDS AT 9 PM.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO
STARTING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...CN/MCW








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: WE DID MOVE UP THE TMG OF HIGHER POPS BY AN HR OR
TWO THIS EVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF SHOWING FASTER FILLING OF
RN REF ACROSS THE FA THEN PREV FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS
OVRNGT WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 9 PM OBS...WITH FCST LOWS
POSTED AT 6 AM MON ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY A DEG OR TWO ACROSS THE N
HLF OF THE FA FROM THE PREV FCST LOW...BASED ON OBSVD-PREV FCST
TEMP TRENDS AT 9 PM.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROF WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO
STARTING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVEN POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE AND COLD
AIR ALOFT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A FULLY CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH...AND
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM VAN BUREN TOWARDS MT KATAHDIN. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WEST OF THAT
LINE.

WITH BLOCKING IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY STARTS TO FILL AND
SLIDE TO THE EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WINDS AT BANGOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT BANGOR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ATTM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE GFS TRACKING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES OPTED TO STAY WITH MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY
THRU EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO START WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR NORTH OF HUL DURING
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
FOR THESE SITES AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NORTH OF HUL. THE MVFR
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF HUL INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN SCA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH OR WARNING AND WILL NOT ISSUE THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE SCA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 DAYS ADD UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...NEITHER HEAVY RAINS OR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTATION WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED RISING WATERS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO SNOW MELT
AND PRECIPITATION...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM VERY
LIKELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
HYDROLOGY...CN/MCW









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