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000
FXUS61 KCAR 242233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 PM: ONLY VERY MINOR CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY CLD CVR AND TEMPS
GOING INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND OBSVD 5 AND
6 PM TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO SIG DEPARTURES FROM THE LAST FCST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BELCHER ISLANDS IN HUDSON BAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN VERY WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW.  THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY.

SENSIBLE WX...CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE CWA.  A DRY AIR MASS
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 40S FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS UP NORTH COULD DROP CLOSE TO 40F. DID LOWER TEMPS A FAIR
AMOUNT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. INSTABILITY IS
ONLY MARGINAL SO ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE M/U 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 80S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STEADIER RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EAST WILL BRING A SERIES OF
SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS ONE WEAK LOW MOVES AWAY
AND ANOTHER APPROACHES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR MAY THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SPOTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
THEN BE PARTLY SUNNY, WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST PUSHES WARMER AIR
INTO THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AT KPQI...KHUL...OR KBHB.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 242233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 PM: ONLY VERY MINOR CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY CLD CVR AND TEMPS
GOING INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND OBSVD 5 AND
6 PM TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO SIG DEPARTURES FROM THE LAST FCST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BELCHER ISLANDS IN HUDSON BAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN VERY WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW.  THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY.

SENSIBLE WX...CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE CWA.  A DRY AIR MASS
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 40S FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS UP NORTH COULD DROP CLOSE TO 40F. DID LOWER TEMPS A FAIR
AMOUNT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. INSTABILITY IS
ONLY MARGINAL SO ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE M/U 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 80S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STEADIER RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EAST WILL BRING A SERIES OF
SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS ONE WEAK LOW MOVES AWAY
AND ANOTHER APPROACHES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR MAY THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SPOTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
THEN BE PARTLY SUNNY, WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST PUSHES WARMER AIR
INTO THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AT KPQI...KHUL...OR KBHB.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 241954
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BELCHER ISLANDS IN HUDSON BAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN VERY WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW.  THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY.

SENSIBLE WX...CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE CWA.  A DRY AIR MASS
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 40S FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS UP NORTH COULD DROP CLOSE TO 40F. DID LOWER TEMPS A FAIR
AMOUNT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. INSTABILITY IS
ONLY MARGINAL SO ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE M/U 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 80S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STEADIER RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EAST WILL BRING A SERIES OF
SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS ONE WEAK LOW MOVES AWAY
AND ANOTHER APPROACHES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR MAY THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SPOTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
THEN BE PARTLY SUNNY, WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST PUSHES WARMER AIR
INTO THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AT KPQI...KHUL...OR KBHB.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...JULY HAS BEEN WET AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE IS SOME INFO AVAILABLE ON THE WEATHER SO FAR THIS MONTH ON
OUR WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR/JULYCLIMATE
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/NORCROSS
MARINE...CB/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...CB











000
FXUS61 KCAR 241954
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BELCHER ISLANDS IN HUDSON BAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN VERY WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW.  THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY.

SENSIBLE WX...CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE CWA.  A DRY AIR MASS
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 40S FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS UP NORTH COULD DROP CLOSE TO 40F. DID LOWER TEMPS A FAIR
AMOUNT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. INSTABILITY IS
ONLY MARGINAL SO ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE M/U 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 80S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STEADIER RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EAST WILL BRING A SERIES OF
SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS ONE WEAK LOW MOVES AWAY
AND ANOTHER APPROACHES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR MAY THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SPOTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
THEN BE PARTLY SUNNY, WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST PUSHES WARMER AIR
INTO THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AT KPQI...KHUL...OR KBHB.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...JULY HAS BEEN WET AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE IS SOME INFO AVAILABLE ON THE WEATHER SO FAR THIS MONTH ON
OUR WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR/JULYCLIMATE
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/NORCROSS
MARINE...CB/NORCROSS
CLIMATE...CB









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 241915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WET WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT
OUR SKIES AND DROP OFF WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S N AND 50S S...THOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IN THE S. SOME
VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO FORM...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...TRACKING TO OUR S. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER FOR US...EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE SLIDING BY JUST TO OUR N. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S N
AND LOWER 80S S...EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE
WEAK W NW WINDS WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS
MOSTLY LIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BRING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS.
EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR
VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT... BRINGING SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
THE START TO A PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIG A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
AREA BY MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY... BUT BEGINS TO
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IT SHOULD FINALLY BE A DRIER DAY.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO OUR S
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS... WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS...SOME VALLEY FOG
LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY JUST IMPACT LEB AND HIE AS
INDICATED IN THE TAFS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY AFFECT HIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO DROP
BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER. SOME VALLEY
FOG MAY FORM AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY COULD MEAN INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO
OUR S FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 25 KT. MODELS TRY TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT OR ABOVE
ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW... BUT HAVE GONE BELOW THIS IN THE
FORECAST AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO WAVE HEIGHTS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/CAPRIOLA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WET WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT
OUR SKIES AND DROP OFF WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S N AND 50S S...THOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IN THE S. SOME
VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO FORM...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...TRACKING TO OUR S. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER FOR US...EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE SLIDING BY JUST TO OUR N. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S N
AND LOWER 80S S...EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE
WEAK W NW WINDS WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS
MOSTLY LIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BRING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS.
EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR
VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT... BRINGING SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
THE START TO A PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIG A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
AREA BY MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY... BUT BEGINS TO
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IT SHOULD FINALLY BE A DRIER DAY.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO OUR S
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS... WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS...SOME VALLEY FOG
LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY JUST IMPACT LEB AND HIE AS
INDICATED IN THE TAFS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY AFFECT HIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO DROP
BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER. SOME VALLEY
FOG MAY FORM AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY COULD MEAN INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO
OUR S FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 25 KT. MODELS TRY TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT OR ABOVE
ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW... BUT HAVE GONE BELOW THIS IN THE
FORECAST AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO WAVE HEIGHTS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/CAPRIOLA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WET WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT
OUR SKIES AND DROP OFF WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S N AND 50S S...THOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IN THE S. SOME
VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO FORM...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...TRACKING TO OUR S. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER FOR US...EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE SLIDING BY JUST TO OUR N. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S N
AND LOWER 80S S...EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE
WEAK W NW WINDS WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS
MOSTLY LIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BRING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS.
EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR
VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT... BRINGING SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
THE START TO A PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIG A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
AREA BY MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY... BUT BEGINS TO
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IT SHOULD FINALLY BE A DRIER DAY.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO OUR S
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS... WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS...SOME VALLEY FOG
LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY JUST IMPACT LEB AND HIE AS
INDICATED IN THE TAFS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY AFFECT HIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO DROP
BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER. SOME VALLEY
FOG MAY FORM AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY COULD MEAN INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO
OUR S FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 25 KT. MODELS TRY TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT OR ABOVE
ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW... BUT HAVE GONE BELOW THIS IN THE
FORECAST AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO WAVE HEIGHTS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/CAPRIOLA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WET WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT
OUR SKIES AND DROP OFF WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S N AND 50S S...THOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IN THE S. SOME
VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO FORM...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...TRACKING TO OUR S. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER FOR US...EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE SLIDING BY JUST TO OUR N. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S N
AND LOWER 80S S...EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE
WEAK W NW WINDS WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS
MOSTLY LIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK SW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BRING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS.
EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG OVER INTERIOR
VALLEYS. USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT... BRINGING SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE
THE START TO A PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIG A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
AREA BY MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY... BUT BEGINS TO
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IT SHOULD FINALLY BE A DRIER DAY.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO OUR S
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS... WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS...SOME VALLEY FOG
LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY JUST IMPACT LEB AND HIE AS
INDICATED IN THE TAFS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY AFFECT HIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO DROP
BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER. SOME VALLEY
FOG MAY FORM AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY COULD MEAN INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W TONIGHT THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AS IT STAYS TO
OUR S FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 25 KT. MODELS TRY TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT OR ABOVE
ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW... BUT HAVE GONE BELOW THIS IN THE
FORECAST AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO WAVE HEIGHTS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/CAPRIOLA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 241613 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1212 PM UPDATE...MUCH DRIER/COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY
WITH A HINT OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH A NOON TEMP/DEW POINT OF
64F/47F AT CARIBOU. STILL SOME SHOWERS DOWN EAST...MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE
LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 3 PM...AND THE HRRR
HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS AND THEIR MOVEMENT. MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE NOON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS. DID LOWER
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...AND EVEN MORE SO ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 241613 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1212 PM UPDATE...MUCH DRIER/COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY
WITH A HINT OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH A NOON TEMP/DEW POINT OF
64F/47F AT CARIBOU. STILL SOME SHOWERS DOWN EAST...MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE
LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 3 PM...AND THE HRRR
HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS AND THEIR MOVEMENT. MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE NOON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS. DID LOWER
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...AND EVEN MORE SO ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 241613 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1212 PM UPDATE...MUCH DRIER/COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY
WITH A HINT OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH A NOON TEMP/DEW POINT OF
64F/47F AT CARIBOU. STILL SOME SHOWERS DOWN EAST...MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE
LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 3 PM...AND THE HRRR
HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS AND THEIR MOVEMENT. MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE NOON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS. DID LOWER
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...AND EVEN MORE SO ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 241613 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1212 PM UPDATE...MUCH DRIER/COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY
WITH A HINT OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH A NOON TEMP/DEW POINT OF
64F/47F AT CARIBOU. STILL SOME SHOWERS DOWN EAST...MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE
LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 3 PM...AND THE HRRR
HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS AND THEIR MOVEMENT. MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE NOON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS. DID LOWER
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...AND EVEN MORE SO ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 241603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1203 PM UPDATE...MUCH DRIER/COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY
WITH A HINT OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH A NOON TEMP/DEW POINT OF
64F/47F AT CARIBOU. STILL SOME SHOWERS DOWN EAST...MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE
LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 3 PM...AND THE HRRR
HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS AND THEIR MOVEMENT. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE NOON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1203 PM UPDATE...MUCH DRIER/COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY
WITH A HINT OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH A NOON TEMP/DEW POINT OF
64F/47F AT CARIBOU. STILL SOME SHOWERS DOWN EAST...MOST
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE
LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 3 PM...AND THE HRRR
HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS AND THEIR MOVEMENT. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE NOON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241557
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1157 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST...STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN U.S THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO ADD SLGT CHC -SHRA ALONG THE COAST AND EXTREME SE
NH AS LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS SOME OF THESE
AREAS. MORE SHRA CONT ACROSS THE MID COAST REGION AT THIS TIME.
STILL TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING WX THIS AFTERNOON. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

CLEARING OR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NW TODAY AS THE SFC LOW AND FNT MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID WX MOVE IN TODAY AS N NW WINDS SET UP. WINDS
DROP OFF SO THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES. EXPECT
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE S MAY
REACH 80.

UPDATED SUMMITS FCST TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THE HIGHEST SUMMITS AND
ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT PER LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC REPORTS.

UPDATED SURF FCST TO REMOVE ANY CHC OF TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED CHC OF PRCP PER RADAR AND SKY COVER PER SATELLITE AND SFC
OBS. WITH CLEARING TO BE SLOW ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST HAVE LOWERED THE UV INDEX E OF PWM FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL PROMOTE QUICK COOLING
AFTER SUNSET. RECENT RNFL AND COOL TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG.

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI...WITH TEMPS MODERATING UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VSBY UNRESTRICTED AT THIS TIME AND
CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AROUND NOON TIME THOUGH STILL SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND AND EVEN ISOLD -SHRA ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WITH SCT
-SHRA AROUND THE MID COAST OF ME. TREND WILL BE FOR CIG TO BECOME
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TNGT THRU
FRIDAY. EXCEPTION FOR TONIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LGT WINDS THAT MAY PROMOTE VALLEY FOG WITH COOL
TEMPS AND RECENT PRCP.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.
SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR AN SCA. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO OUR S.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
BUILDING SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 241557
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1157 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST...STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN U.S THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO ADD SLGT CHC -SHRA ALONG THE COAST AND EXTREME SE
NH AS LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS SOME OF THESE
AREAS. MORE SHRA CONT ACROSS THE MID COAST REGION AT THIS TIME.
STILL TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING WX THIS AFTERNOON. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

CLEARING OR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NW TODAY AS THE SFC LOW AND FNT MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID WX MOVE IN TODAY AS N NW WINDS SET UP. WINDS
DROP OFF SO THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES. EXPECT
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE S MAY
REACH 80.

UPDATED SUMMITS FCST TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THE HIGHEST SUMMITS AND
ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT PER LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC REPORTS.

UPDATED SURF FCST TO REMOVE ANY CHC OF TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED CHC OF PRCP PER RADAR AND SKY COVER PER SATELLITE AND SFC
OBS. WITH CLEARING TO BE SLOW ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST HAVE LOWERED THE UV INDEX E OF PWM FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL PROMOTE QUICK COOLING
AFTER SUNSET. RECENT RNFL AND COOL TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG.

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI...WITH TEMPS MODERATING UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VSBY UNRESTRICTED AT THIS TIME AND
CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AROUND NOON TIME THOUGH STILL SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND AND EVEN ISOLD -SHRA ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WITH SCT
-SHRA AROUND THE MID COAST OF ME. TREND WILL BE FOR CIG TO BECOME
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TNGT THRU
FRIDAY. EXCEPTION FOR TONIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LGT WINDS THAT MAY PROMOTE VALLEY FOG WITH COOL
TEMPS AND RECENT PRCP.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.
SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR AN SCA. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO OUR S.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
BUILDING SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
954 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST...STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET
WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO LOWER THE CHC OF RAIN PER LATEST RADAR LOOP WHICH SHOWS
LAST OF PRCP EXITING COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH HOLDING ON A LITTLE
LONGER ALONG THE MID COAST INTO ADJACENT INTERIOR AREAS. TREND
WILL BE FOR PRCP TO CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING OR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AS THE SFC LOW AND FNT
MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID WX MOVE IN TODAY AS N NW WINDS SET UP. WINDS
DROP OFF SO THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES. EXPECT
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE S MAY
REACH 80.

UPDATED SUMMITS FCST TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THE HIGHEST SUMMITS AND
ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT PER LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC REPORTS.

UPDATED SURF FCST TO REMOVE ANY CHC OF TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED CHC OF PRCP PER RADAR AND SKY COVER PER SATELLITE AND SFC
OBS. WITH CLEARING TO BE SLOW ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST HAVE LOWERED THE UV INDEX E OF PWM FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL PROMOTE QUICK COOLING
AFTER SUNSET. RECENT RNFL AND COOL TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG.

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI...WITH TEMPS MODERATING UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VSBY UNRESTRICTED AT THIS TIME AND
CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES. TREND WILL BE FOR CIG TO BECOME VFR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TNGT THRU FRIDAY.
EXCEPTION FOR TONIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LGT WINDS THAT MAY PROMOTE VALLEY FOG WITH COOL TEMPS
AND RECENT PRCP.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS A
BIT THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR AN SCA. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING TO OUR S.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
BUILDING SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
954 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST...STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET
WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO LOWER THE CHC OF RAIN PER LATEST RADAR LOOP WHICH SHOWS
LAST OF PRCP EXITING COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH HOLDING ON A LITTLE
LONGER ALONG THE MID COAST INTO ADJACENT INTERIOR AREAS. TREND
WILL BE FOR PRCP TO CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING OR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AS THE SFC LOW AND FNT
MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID WX MOVE IN TODAY AS N NW WINDS SET UP. WINDS
DROP OFF SO THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES. EXPECT
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE S MAY
REACH 80.

UPDATED SUMMITS FCST TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THE HIGHEST SUMMITS AND
ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT PER LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC REPORTS.

UPDATED SURF FCST TO REMOVE ANY CHC OF TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED CHC OF PRCP PER RADAR AND SKY COVER PER SATELLITE AND SFC
OBS. WITH CLEARING TO BE SLOW ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST HAVE LOWERED THE UV INDEX E OF PWM FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL PROMOTE QUICK COOLING
AFTER SUNSET. RECENT RNFL AND COOL TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG.

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI...WITH TEMPS MODERATING UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VSBY UNRESTRICTED AT THIS TIME AND
CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES. TREND WILL BE FOR CIG TO BECOME VFR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TNGT THRU FRIDAY.
EXCEPTION FOR TONIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LGT WINDS THAT MAY PROMOTE VALLEY FOG WITH COOL TEMPS
AND RECENT PRCP.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS A
BIT THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR AN SCA. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING TO OUR S.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
BUILDING SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCAR 241312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
912 AM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO NORTHERN MAINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE COMFORTABLE 40S IN MOST
AREAS. STILL KIND OF STICKY ALONG THE COAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOW 60S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BEEF UP THE
POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DOWN EAST REGION AND TO HOLD
ONTO THE SHOWERS A BIT LONGER ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KCAR 241312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
912 AM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO NORTHERN MAINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE COMFORTABLE 40S IN MOST
AREAS. STILL KIND OF STICKY ALONG THE COAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOW 60S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BEEF UP THE
POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DOWN EAST REGION AND TO HOLD
ONTO THE SHOWERS A BIT LONGER ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KCAR 241312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
912 AM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO NORTHERN MAINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE COMFORTABLE 40S IN MOST
AREAS. STILL KIND OF STICKY ALONG THE COAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOW 60S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BEEF UP THE
POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DOWN EAST REGION AND TO HOLD
ONTO THE SHOWERS A BIT LONGER ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KCAR 241312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
912 AM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO NORTHERN MAINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE COMFORTABLE 40S IN MOST
AREAS. STILL KIND OF STICKY ALONG THE COAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOW 60S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BEEF UP THE
POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DOWN EAST REGION AND TO HOLD
ONTO THE SHOWERS A BIT LONGER ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...EXPECT IFR/MFVF AT KBHB THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 2 TO 3 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS TODAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/DUDA/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KGYX 241002 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
602 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET
WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO TRACK THE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS
THRU THE CWFA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. ALL THAT REMAINS ARE MAINLY SCT SHOWERS AT THIS
HOUR. COOLER...BUT MORE NOTICEABLY DRIER...AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM
THE N THRU DAYBREAK. CAA INDUCED MIXING SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG
CONCERNS THIS MORNING AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MUCH COOLER TODAY...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
BELOW 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL PROMOTE QUICK COOLING
AFTER SUNSET. RECENT RNFL AND COOL TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG.

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI...WITH TEMPS MODERATING UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GREATEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MVFR LEFT AND VERY ISOLD PATCHES OF IFR OR LOWER. THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THRU DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TODAY THRU FRI. EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE WILL BE
TONIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN MAY PROMOTE VALLEY FOG WITH
COOL TEMPS AND RECENT RNFL.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING...SO
SCA IS CANCELLED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
FRI.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
BUILDING SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 241002 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
602 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET
WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO TRACK THE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS
THRU THE CWFA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. ALL THAT REMAINS ARE MAINLY SCT SHOWERS AT THIS
HOUR. COOLER...BUT MORE NOTICEABLY DRIER...AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM
THE N THRU DAYBREAK. CAA INDUCED MIXING SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG
CONCERNS THIS MORNING AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MUCH COOLER TODAY...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
BELOW 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL PROMOTE QUICK COOLING
AFTER SUNSET. RECENT RNFL AND COOL TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG.

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI...WITH TEMPS MODERATING UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GREATEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MVFR LEFT AND VERY ISOLD PATCHES OF IFR OR LOWER. THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THRU DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TODAY THRU FRI. EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE WILL BE
TONIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN MAY PROMOTE VALLEY FOG WITH
COOL TEMPS AND RECENT RNFL.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING...SO
SCA IS CANCELLED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
FRI.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
BUILDING SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KCAR 240941
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
541 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
THIS MORNING PER LATEST IR IMAGERY. EXPECT CLEARING LATER TODAY.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBGR/KBHB WHICH WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LINGERING SHOWERS. ALL TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN PATCHY FOG
AND SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI






000
FXUS61 KCAR 240724
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
324 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBGR/KBHB WHICH WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LINGERING SHOWERS. ALL TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN PATCHY FOG
AND SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI








000
FXUS61 KCAR 240724
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
324 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TODAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEW POINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO END AS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES IT WAY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
ALONG WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AN DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC.  SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAINT JOHN RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR
WRAPS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR LESS CONVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBGR/KBHB WHICH WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LINGERING SHOWERS. ALL TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN PATCHY FOG
AND SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KGYX 240700
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET
WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. ALL THAT
REMAINS ARE MAINLY SCT SHOWERS AT THIS HOUR. COOLER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER...AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE N THRU DAYBREAK.
CAA INDUCED MIXING SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG CONCERNS THIS MORNING AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MUCH COOLER TODAY...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
BELOW 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL PROMOTE QUICK COOLING
AFTER SUNSET. RECENT RNFL AND COOL TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG.

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI...WITH TEMPS MODERATING UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GREATEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MVFR LEFT AND VERY ISOLD PATCHES OF IFR OR LOWER. THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THRU DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TODAY THRU FRI. EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE WILL BE
TONIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN MAY PROMOTE VALLEY FOG WITH
COOL TEMPS AND RECENT RNFL.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING...SO
SCA IS CANCELLED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
FRI.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
BUILDING SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...LEGRO/JENSENIUS
MARINE...LEGRO/JENSENIUS











000
FXUS61 KGYX 240700
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET
WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. ALL THAT
REMAINS ARE MAINLY SCT SHOWERS AT THIS HOUR. COOLER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER...AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE N THRU DAYBREAK.
CAA INDUCED MIXING SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG CONCERNS THIS MORNING AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MUCH COOLER TODAY...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
BELOW 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL PROMOTE QUICK COOLING
AFTER SUNSET. RECENT RNFL AND COOL TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG.

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI...WITH TEMPS MODERATING UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GREATEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MVFR LEFT AND VERY ISOLD PATCHES OF IFR OR LOWER. THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THRU DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TODAY THRU FRI. EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE WILL BE
TONIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN MAY PROMOTE VALLEY FOG WITH
COOL TEMPS AND RECENT RNFL.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING...SO
SCA IS CANCELLED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
FRI.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER
BUILDING SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...LEGRO/JENSENIUS
MARINE...LEGRO/JENSENIUS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 240437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WORK ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED
ON LATEST IR IMAGERY OTHERWISE  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST
OF MAINE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER









000
FXUS61 KCAR 240437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WORK ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED
ON LATEST IR IMAGERY OTHERWISE  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST
OF MAINE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER










000
FXUS61 KCAR 240214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR OVRNGT INTO
THU TO BETTER CORRELATE CLD CVR OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA WHERE
SHWRS WILL PERSIST LONGEST INTO THE DAY THU. WE OPTD TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS WITH THE LIKELY POP AREA OVR THE SRN PTN OF
THE FA AND COASTAL WATERS INTO THE REST OF THE OVRNGT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CAPE PERSISTING. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED OVRNGT THRU BASED ON MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
FCST LOWS LATE TNGT AND HI TEMPS THU AND OBSVD 8-9 PM TEMPS.

PREV DISC: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST
OF MAINE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 240214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR OVRNGT INTO
THU TO BETTER CORRELATE CLD CVR OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA WHERE
SHWRS WILL PERSIST LONGEST INTO THE DAY THU. WE OPTD TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS WITH THE LIKELY POP AREA OVR THE SRN PTN OF
THE FA AND COASTAL WATERS INTO THE REST OF THE OVRNGT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CAPE PERSISTING. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED OVRNGT THRU BASED ON MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
FCST LOWS LATE TNGT AND HI TEMPS THU AND OBSVD 8-9 PM TEMPS.

PREV DISC: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST
OF MAINE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 240214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR OVRNGT INTO
THU TO BETTER CORRELATE CLD CVR OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA WHERE
SHWRS WILL PERSIST LONGEST INTO THE DAY THU. WE OPTD TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS WITH THE LIKELY POP AREA OVR THE SRN PTN OF
THE FA AND COASTAL WATERS INTO THE REST OF THE OVRNGT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CAPE PERSISTING. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED OVRNGT THRU BASED ON MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
FCST LOWS LATE TNGT AND HI TEMPS THU AND OBSVD 8-9 PM TEMPS.

PREV DISC: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST
OF MAINE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 240214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR OVRNGT INTO
THU TO BETTER CORRELATE CLD CVR OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA WHERE
SHWRS WILL PERSIST LONGEST INTO THE DAY THU. WE OPTD TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS WITH THE LIKELY POP AREA OVR THE SRN PTN OF
THE FA AND COASTAL WATERS INTO THE REST OF THE OVRNGT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CAPE PERSISTING. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED OVRNGT THRU BASED ON MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
FCST LOWS LATE TNGT AND HI TEMPS THU AND OBSVD 8-9 PM TEMPS.

PREV DISC: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST
OF MAINE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 232323
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
723 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:25 PM UDPATE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPEARS
OVER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SOME SMALL THUNDERSHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNEAST WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER
MARINE...RB/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 232323
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
723 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:25 PM UDPATE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPEARS
OVER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SOME SMALL THUNDERSHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNEAST WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER
MARINE...RB/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 232323
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
723 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:25 PM UDPATE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPEARS
OVER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SOME SMALL THUNDERSHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNEAST WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER
MARINE...RB/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 232323
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
723 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:25 PM UDPATE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPEARS
OVER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SOME SMALL THUNDERSHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNEAST WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER
MARINE...RB/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE..
HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR GRAFTON...COOS...OXFORD...AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES AND ALLOWED FRANKLIN COUNTY TO STAY IN THE WATCH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY. SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED WESTERN PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
FROM GRAY SW HAS BEEN HAS MORE SEVERE ELEMENTS THAN THE EASTERN
HALF...EXHIBITING MORE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LIGHTNING. THESE
CELLS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEY MOVE OFFSHORE AND LIKELY PRODUCE 34
KT+ OVER THE WATERS. MORE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
BEHIND OUTFLOW OVER THE MIDCOAST SHOULD JUST POSE ONLY A RAIN
THREAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THIS ANAFRONTAL PATTERN BUT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE
A CONCERN. PATCHY FOG DENSE WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE AND ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST.

WILL CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AS SEVERE/STRONG
STORMS MOVE ESE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10
PM. LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING SLOWLY SE THROUGH NH AND
MAINE. AREA OF OUTFLOW NOW MOVING AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN OXFORD
AND CARROLL COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE IN
ANDROSCOGGIN/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. STRONGER/ SEVERE STORMS ARE
LOCATED IN VT AND MAY MOVE INTO NH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY
THE HRRR MODEL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. SO FAR THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AT 700MB IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR STORMS NOT REALIZING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH SHORTLY.
ADJUSTED POPS...MAX TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND WEATHER GRIDS
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS S AND SE ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURS OR
SO...THEN SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE. A FAIR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THURS NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN. MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. QUIETER WINDS AND SEAS THU
THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE..
HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR GRAFTON...COOS...OXFORD...AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES AND ALLOWED FRANKLIN COUNTY TO STAY IN THE WATCH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY. SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED WESTERN PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
FROM GRAY SW HAS BEEN HAS MORE SEVERE ELEMENTS THAN THE EASTERN
HALF...EXHIBITING MORE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LIGHTNING. THESE
CELLS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEY MOVE OFFSHORE AND LIKELY PRODUCE 34
KT+ OVER THE WATERS. MORE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
BEHIND OUTFLOW OVER THE MIDCOAST SHOULD JUST POSE ONLY A RAIN
THREAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THIS ANAFRONTAL PATTERN BUT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE
A CONCERN. PATCHY FOG DENSE WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE AND ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST.

WILL CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AS SEVERE/STRONG
STORMS MOVE ESE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10
PM. LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING SLOWLY SE THROUGH NH AND
MAINE. AREA OF OUTFLOW NOW MOVING AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN OXFORD
AND CARROLL COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE IN
ANDROSCOGGIN/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. STRONGER/ SEVERE STORMS ARE
LOCATED IN VT AND MAY MOVE INTO NH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY
THE HRRR MODEL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. SO FAR THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AT 700MB IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR STORMS NOT REALIZING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH SHORTLY.
ADJUSTED POPS...MAX TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND WEATHER GRIDS
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS S AND SE ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURS OR
SO...THEN SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE. A FAIR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THURS NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN. MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. QUIETER WINDS AND SEAS THU
THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE..
HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR GRAFTON...COOS...OXFORD...AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES AND ALLOWED FRANKLIN COUNTY TO STAY IN THE WATCH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY. SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED WESTERN PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
FROM GRAY SW HAS BEEN HAS MORE SEVERE ELEMENTS THAN THE EASTERN
HALF...EXHIBITING MORE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LIGHTNING. THESE
CELLS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEY MOVE OFFSHORE AND LIKELY PRODUCE 34
KT+ OVER THE WATERS. MORE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
BEHIND OUTFLOW OVER THE MIDCOAST SHOULD JUST POSE ONLY A RAIN
THREAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THIS ANAFRONTAL PATTERN BUT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE
A CONCERN. PATCHY FOG DENSE WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE AND ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST.

WILL CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AS SEVERE/STRONG
STORMS MOVE ESE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10
PM. LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING SLOWLY SE THROUGH NH AND
MAINE. AREA OF OUTFLOW NOW MOVING AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN OXFORD
AND CARROLL COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE IN
ANDROSCOGGIN/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. STRONGER/ SEVERE STORMS ARE
LOCATED IN VT AND MAY MOVE INTO NH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY
THE HRRR MODEL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. SO FAR THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AT 700MB IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR STORMS NOT REALIZING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH SHORTLY.
ADJUSTED POPS...MAX TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND WEATHER GRIDS
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS S AND SE ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURS OR
SO...THEN SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE. A FAIR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THURS NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN. MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. QUIETER WINDS AND SEAS THU
THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE..
HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR GRAFTON...COOS...OXFORD...AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES AND ALLOWED FRANKLIN COUNTY TO STAY IN THE WATCH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY. SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED WESTERN PART OF THE SQUALL LINE
FROM GRAY SW HAS BEEN HAS MORE SEVERE ELEMENTS THAN THE EASTERN
HALF...EXHIBITING MORE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LIGHTNING. THESE
CELLS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEY MOVE OFFSHORE AND LIKELY PRODUCE 34
KT+ OVER THE WATERS. MORE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
BEHIND OUTFLOW OVER THE MIDCOAST SHOULD JUST POSE ONLY A RAIN
THREAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THIS ANAFRONTAL PATTERN BUT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE
A CONCERN. PATCHY FOG DENSE WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE AND ADDED THIS
TO THE FORECAST.

WILL CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AS SEVERE/STRONG
STORMS MOVE ESE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10
PM. LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING SLOWLY SE THROUGH NH AND
MAINE. AREA OF OUTFLOW NOW MOVING AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN OXFORD
AND CARROLL COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE IN
ANDROSCOGGIN/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. STRONGER/ SEVERE STORMS ARE
LOCATED IN VT AND MAY MOVE INTO NH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY
THE HRRR MODEL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. SO FAR THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AT 700MB IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR STORMS NOT REALIZING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH SHORTLY.
ADJUSTED POPS...MAX TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND WEATHER GRIDS
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS S AND SE ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURS OR
SO...THEN SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE. A FAIR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THURS NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN. MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. QUIETER WINDS AND SEAS THU
THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







000
FXUS61 KCAR 232243
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT DOWNEAST.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWWD ALONG THE QUEBEC/MAIN BORDER AND OVER
NH/VT/NY. SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF
THE FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS IS DUE TO MUCAPES REACHING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF
AROUND 100 M2/S2. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER
MARINE...RB/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 232243
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT DOWNEAST.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWWD ALONG THE QUEBEC/MAIN BORDER AND OVER
NH/VT/NY. SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF
THE FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS IS DUE TO MUCAPES REACHING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF
AROUND 100 M2/S2. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER
MARINE...RB/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KGYX 232049 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
449 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE..
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10
PM. LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING SLOWLY SE THROUGH NH AND
MAINE. AREA OF OUTFLOW NOW MOVING AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN OXFORD
AND CARROLL COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE IN
ANDROSCOGGIN/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. STRONGER/ SEVERE STORMS ARE
LOCATED IN VT AND MAY MOVE INTO NH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY
THE HRRR MODEL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. SO FAR THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AT 700MB IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR STORMS NOT REALIZING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH SHORTLY.
ADJUSTED POPS...MAX TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND WEATHER GRIDS
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10
PM. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS VT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FURTHER INTO THE CWA BY
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS S AND SE ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURS OR
SO...THEN SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE. A FAIR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THURS NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN. MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. QUIETER WINDS AND SEAS THU
THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 232049 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
449 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE..
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10
PM. LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING SLOWLY SE THROUGH NH AND
MAINE. AREA OF OUTFLOW NOW MOVING AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN OXFORD
AND CARROLL COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE IN
ANDROSCOGGIN/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. STRONGER/ SEVERE STORMS ARE
LOCATED IN VT AND MAY MOVE INTO NH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY
THE HRRR MODEL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. SO FAR THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AT 700MB IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR STORMS NOT REALIZING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH SHORTLY.
ADJUSTED POPS...MAX TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND WEATHER GRIDS
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10
PM. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS VT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FURTHER INTO THE CWA BY
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS S AND SE ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURS OR
SO...THEN SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE. A FAIR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THURS NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN. MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. QUIETER WINDS AND SEAS THU
THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231947
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWWD ALONG THE QUEBEC/MAIN BORDER AND OVER
NH/VT/NY. SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF
THE FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS IS DUE TO MUCAPES REACHING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF
AROUND 100 M2/S2. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...RAHE
AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER
MARINE...RB/BLOOMER










000
FXUS61 KCAR 231947
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWWD ALONG THE QUEBEC/MAIN BORDER AND OVER
NH/VT/NY. SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF
THE FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS IS DUE TO MUCAPES REACHING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF
AROUND 100 M2/S2. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF MAINE
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSYBS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ANS WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...RAHE
AVIATION...RB/BLOOMER
MARINE...RB/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KGYX 231840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10
PM. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS VT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FURTHER INTO THE CWA BY
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS S AND SE ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURS OR
SO...THEN SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE. A FAIR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THURS NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN. MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. QUIETER WINDS AND SEAS THU
THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 231840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10
PM. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS VT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FURTHER INTO THE CWA BY
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS S AND SE ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURS OR
SO...THEN SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE. A FAIR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THURS NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
FORESEEN. MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR
MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND SEAS 4-6 FT. QUIETER WINDS AND SEAS THU
THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231743
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
140 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
140 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT TRENDS IN POPS.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERNMOST VT AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERNMOST NH AND THE WRN ME MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MAIN THREAT THERE WILL BE MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY SEVERE...AND
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

11 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z. SOME MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN SHOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND INDUCES
HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 231646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED.

13Z UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND SHOULD START AFFECTING OUT WRN ZONES
AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW STORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF OUR CWA COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 231646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED.

13Z UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND SHOULD START AFFECTING OUT WRN ZONES
AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW STORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF OUR CWA COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI






000
FXUS61 KGYX 231502
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1102 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z. SOME MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN SHOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND INDUCES
HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND SHOULD START AFFECTING OUT WRN ZONES
AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW STORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF OUR CWA COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND SHOULD START AFFECTING OUT WRN ZONES
AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW STORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF OUR CWA COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 231115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
715 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
715 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 230953 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR LATEST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE TO
MATCH POP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230953 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR LATEST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE TO
MATCH POP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230953 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR LATEST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE TO
MATCH POP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230953 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR LATEST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE TO
MATCH POP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230732
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT FOG AND
HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME. AS FAR AS THE LATTER
GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR
NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CAPRIOLA
AVIATION...CAPRIOLA/LEGRO
MARINE...CAPRIOLA/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 230732
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT FOG AND
HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME. AS FAR AS THE LATTER
GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR
NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CAPRIOLA
AVIATION...CAPRIOLA/LEGRO
MARINE...CAPRIOLA/LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230655
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE FORECAST
TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE.
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230655
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE FORECAST
TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE.
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1158 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOWS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 60S. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO REST OF OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 230358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1158 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOWS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 60S. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO REST OF OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KGYX 230203 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1003 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WHICH ARE
DROPPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL IN THE 70S IN A LOST OF
SPOTS WITH SW WINDS AROUND 5-8 MPH. THESE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
SOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT READINGS TO DROP QUICKER WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMATION AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE.

&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230203 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1003 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WHICH ARE
DROPPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL IN THE 70S IN A LOST OF
SPOTS WITH SW WINDS AROUND 5-8 MPH. THESE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
SOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT READINGS TO DROP QUICKER WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMATION AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE.

&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
933 PM UPDATE...WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO LABRADOR WED PM. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT EXTENDS TO
YARMOUTH THAT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS
EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS AND WIND GRIDS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
933 PM UPDATE...WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO LABRADOR WED PM. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT EXTENDS TO
YARMOUTH THAT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS
EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS AND WIND GRIDS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
933 PM UPDATE...WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO LABRADOR WED PM. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT EXTENDS TO
YARMOUTH THAT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS
EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS AND WIND GRIDS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
933 PM UPDATE...WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO LABRADOR WED PM. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT EXTENDS TO
YARMOUTH THAT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS
EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS AND WIND GRIDS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KGYX 222341 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 222341 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 222341 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 222341 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






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