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000
FXUS61 KCAR 251640
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1240 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...INCREASED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY ABOUT 3
DEGREES...5 DEGREE IN NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR TODAY. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORTON/CB
MARINE...NORTON/CB
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251640
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1240 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...INCREASED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY ABOUT 3
DEGREES...5 DEGREE IN NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR TODAY. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORTON/CB
MARINE...NORTON/CB
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251640
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1240 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...INCREASED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY ABOUT 3
DEGREES...5 DEGREE IN NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR TODAY. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORTON/CB
MARINE...NORTON/CB
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251640
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1240 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...INCREASED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY ABOUT 3
DEGREES...5 DEGREE IN NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR TODAY. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORTON/CB
MARINE...NORTON/CB
FIRE WEATHER...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 251358 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
958 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO NH AS WELL AS AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. SO FAR LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND AND ACCORDING TO AREA SOUNDINGS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE STILL
BEFORE IT DOES WITH QUITE A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. ADJUSTED SKY COVER... HOURLY TEMPERATURES...
AS WELL AS TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ROOM FOR PORTLAND
AND AREAS LIKE WISCASSET TO REACH 80S AS THEY ARE WARMING RAPIDLY
WITH THE HELP OF WEST WINDS. THEREFORE WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FORECAST AND BROUGHT HIGHS UP A LITTLE IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPRINKLES ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF
MID DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWING
MORE RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MIDCOAST AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251334
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
939 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND
SKYCON...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORTON/CB
MARINE...NORTON/CB
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251334
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
939 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND
SKYCON...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORTON/CB
MARINE...NORTON/CB
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251029
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MENTIONED A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251029
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MENTIONED A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251029
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MENTIONED A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251029
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MENTIONED A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251029
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MENTIONED A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...DECIDED TO OFFICIALLY ADD SPKLS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
WAVE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THRU THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND...LET
ALONE MEASURE...BUT GETTING SOME 10SM -RA OBS FROM THE WEST...SO
ADDED JUST AS HEADS UP. OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250753
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT ONGOING WAA THRU
THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE NOT QUITE AS WARM
AND DEFINTELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WILL
INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND SHOULD
KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
CLOUDSHOWEVER..WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE STRONGEST WAA
MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS MORNING WILL
MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE...AND LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW SPOTS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY GIVEN
THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250753
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT ONGOING WAA THRU
THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE NOT QUITE AS WARM
AND DEFINTELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WILL
INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND SHOULD
KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
CLOUDSHOWEVER..WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE STRONGEST WAA
MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS MORNING WILL
MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE...AND LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW SPOTS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY GIVEN
THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE
RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 250741
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TUE AND WED NIGHTS. AT
CARIBOU...THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE ON 5/27 IS 61F SET IN
1944. THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE ON 5/28 IS 61F, SET IN 1978.
AT BANGOR...THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMP ON 5/27 IS 60F SET IN 1981...
AND ON 5/28 IS ALSO 60F, SET IN 1959.


WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ON BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 250741
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TUE AND WED NIGHTS. AT
CARIBOU...THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE ON 5/27 IS 61F SET IN
1944. THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE ON 5/28 IS 61F, SET IN 1978.
AT BANGOR...THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMP ON 5/27 IS 60F SET IN 1981...
AND ON 5/28 IS ALSO 60F, SET IN 1959.


WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ON BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 250741
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TUE AND WED NIGHTS. AT
CARIBOU...THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE ON 5/27 IS 61F SET IN
1944. THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE ON 5/28 IS 61F, SET IN 1978.
AT BANGOR...THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMP ON 5/27 IS 60F SET IN 1981...
AND ON 5/28 IS ALSO 60F, SET IN 1959.


WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ON BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250741
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TUE AND WED NIGHTS. AT
CARIBOU...THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE ON 5/27 IS 61F SET IN
1944. THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE ON 5/28 IS 61F, SET IN 1978.
AT BANGOR...THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMP ON 5/27 IS 60F SET IN 1981...
AND ON 5/28 IS ALSO 60F, SET IN 1959.


WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ON BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250436
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED.
AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE
MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY
CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG
THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 250436
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED.
AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE
MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY
CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG
THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250436
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED.
AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE
MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY
CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG
THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250426
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO SKIRT ACROSS FAR
NERN CWA...BUT GIVEN LOW TDS AND FACT THAT THESE ARE FALLING FORM
10K OR HIGHER...HARD TO THINK ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW DROPS OF
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE WILL SEE CONTINUED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.


PREVIOUSLY...THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE
NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
1220 AM...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS/SKY A BIT FOR MONDAY MORNING AS
BEST WAA HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. RADAR ECHOS OVER WRN NY
AND LK ONTARIO ALSO COMING FROM MID-LVL CLOUDS AND CANNOT FIND
OBS TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT LOWERING POPS THRU THE MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250426
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO SKIRT ACROSS FAR
NERN CWA...BUT GIVEN LOW TDS AND FACT THAT THESE ARE FALLING FORM
10K OR HIGHER...HARD TO THINK ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW DROPS OF
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE WILL SEE CONTINUED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.


PREVIOUSLY...THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE
NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
1220 AM...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS/SKY A BIT FOR MONDAY MORNING AS
BEST WAA HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. RADAR ECHOS OVER WRN NY
AND LK ONTARIO ALSO COMING FROM MID-LVL CLOUDS AND CANNOT FIND
OBS TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT LOWERING POPS THRU THE MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250426
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO SKIRT ACROSS FAR
NERN CWA...BUT GIVEN LOW TDS AND FACT THAT THESE ARE FALLING FORM
10K OR HIGHER...HARD TO THINK ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW DROPS OF
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE WILL SEE CONTINUED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.


PREVIOUSLY...THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE
NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
1220 AM...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS/SKY A BIT FOR MONDAY MORNING AS
BEST WAA HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. RADAR ECHOS OVER WRN NY
AND LK ONTARIO ALSO COMING FROM MID-LVL CLOUDS AND CANNOT FIND
OBS TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT LOWERING POPS THRU THE MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250426
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO SKIRT ACROSS FAR
NERN CWA...BUT GIVEN LOW TDS AND FACT THAT THESE ARE FALLING FORM
10K OR HIGHER...HARD TO THINK ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW DROPS OF
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE WILL SEE CONTINUED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.


PREVIOUSLY...THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE
NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
1220 AM...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS/SKY A BIT FOR MONDAY MORNING AS
BEST WAA HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. RADAR ECHOS OVER WRN NY
AND LK ONTARIO ALSO COMING FROM MID-LVL CLOUDS AND CANNOT FIND
OBS TO SUPPORT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT LOWERING POPS THRU THE MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 250205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1005 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE: TWO CHGS THIS UPDATE. THE FIRST WAS TO INCREASE
POPS A LITTLE TO LOW CHC CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
EVE FOR THE GROUP OF SHWRS CURRENTLY OVR DOWNEAST ME. THESE SHWRS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LVL IMPULSE RACING ESE FROM SRN
QB PROV. ANOTHER IMPULSE FROM CNTRL QB COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT SHWRS TO NRN ME VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY MON MORN.

THE SECOND CHG WAS TO LOWER OVRNGT LOWS ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEG F ACROSS
THE FA BASE ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS...WHICH CAME IN SEVERAL DEG COOLER
THAN OUR HRLY FCST FROM THE PREV UPDATE. WE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED
CONSOLIDATED MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST FCST FOR OVRNGT LOWS
WITHOUT SIG MANUALLY CHGNG THIS FCST GRID. FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE
THEN MODIFIED FROM THE 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS TO FCST LOWS AT 4 TO 5
AM...TO FCST TEMPS AT 8 AM...WHICH WILL SHOW A VERY SIG RISE FROM
FCST LOWS AS A WARM FRONT ECLIPSES THE ST JOHN VLY BY THIS TM.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED.
AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE
MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY
CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG
THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/FARRAR
MARINE...VJN/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1005 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE: TWO CHGS THIS UPDATE. THE FIRST WAS TO INCREASE
POPS A LITTLE TO LOW CHC CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
EVE FOR THE GROUP OF SHWRS CURRENTLY OVR DOWNEAST ME. THESE SHWRS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LVL IMPULSE RACING ESE FROM SRN
QB PROV. ANOTHER IMPULSE FROM CNTRL QB COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT SHWRS TO NRN ME VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY MON MORN.

THE SECOND CHG WAS TO LOWER OVRNGT LOWS ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEG F ACROSS
THE FA BASE ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS...WHICH CAME IN SEVERAL DEG COOLER
THAN OUR HRLY FCST FROM THE PREV UPDATE. WE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED
CONSOLIDATED MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST FCST FOR OVRNGT LOWS
WITHOUT SIG MANUALLY CHGNG THIS FCST GRID. FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE
THEN MODIFIED FROM THE 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS TO FCST LOWS AT 4 TO 5
AM...TO FCST TEMPS AT 8 AM...WHICH WILL SHOW A VERY SIG RISE FROM
FCST LOWS AS A WARM FRONT ECLIPSES THE ST JOHN VLY BY THIS TM.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED.
AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE
MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY
CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG
THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/FARRAR
MARINE...VJN/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...MCW



000
FXUS61 KGYX 242340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
740 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS ...POPS AND SKY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN ZONES SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. EXPECT THIS ACTICITY TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST LOOKING FOR
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WILL BE LETTING RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT
800 PM AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND RH VALUES EDGE UP IN SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH.

THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 242340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
740 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS ...POPS AND SKY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN ZONES SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. EXPECT THIS ACTICITY TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST LOOKING FOR
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WILL BE LETTING RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT
800 PM AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND RH VALUES EDGE UP IN SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH.

THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 242214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
550 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN TEMPS...FOR MSLY HI TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
THRU THE FCST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY CLD CVR
AND AND TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT BASED ON 5-6 PM OBSVD CONDITIONS.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED.
AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE
MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY
CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG
THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/FARRAR
MARINE...VJN/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 242214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
550 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN TEMPS...FOR MSLY HI TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
THRU THE FCST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY CLD CVR
AND AND TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT BASED ON 5-6 PM OBSVD CONDITIONS.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED.
AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE
MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY
CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG
THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/FARRAR
MARINE...VJN/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 242214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
550 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN TEMPS...FOR MSLY HI TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
THRU THE FCST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY CLD CVR
AND AND TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT BASED ON 5-6 PM OBSVD CONDITIONS.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED.
AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE
MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY
CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG
THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/FARRAR
MARINE...VJN/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
257 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY
BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED. AS A
RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY
INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE MONDAY...EXPECT
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STILL
BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25
MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
EXPECTION OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH
DRG THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA. |
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...MCW/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241841
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH.

THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CURTIS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241841
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH.

THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CURTIS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241841
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH.

THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CURTIS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241841
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH.

THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CURTIS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 241739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
139 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...FIRE WEATHER IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE
FOREST SERVICE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241737 RRA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 241737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 241737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 241737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 241735
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241735
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241638
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1238 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...

***RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
 SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE***

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST- CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDITION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241638
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1238 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...

***RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
 SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE***

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST- CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDITION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241638
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1238 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...

***RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
 SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE***

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST- CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDITION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241638
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1238 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...

***RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
 SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE***

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST- CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDITION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241533
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241533
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241533
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241435
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241435
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241435
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241435
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS.
HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 241348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 241026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF HOULTON. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP
AND DEW POINT GRIDS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 241026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF HOULTON. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP
AND DEW POINT GRIDS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241022 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS MORNING...AS S/WV
TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 240739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240202
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1002 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:45 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...WE DECIDED TO BEEF
UP POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN
BASED ON A LITTLE MORE FCST QPF WITH SHWRS JUST AHEAD OF AN APCHG
COLD FRONT. WE DID NOT GO WITH THE FULL MODEL VALUES OF QPF IN THE
06-12Z TM FRAME...THINKING THAT DRY SUB CLD AIR MAY RESULT IN
SOME INITIAL EVAPORATION OF RNFL...SO WE GO WITH CLOSE TO 0.05
INCHES FOR A MAX ACROSS NE TO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA... WITH
LESSER POPS AND QPF AFT 12Z WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME SUN MORN. OTHERWISE...ONLY VERY MODEST
ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE OVRNGT BASED
ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240202
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1002 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:45 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...WE DECIDED TO BEEF
UP POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN
BASED ON A LITTLE MORE FCST QPF WITH SHWRS JUST AHEAD OF AN APCHG
COLD FRONT. WE DID NOT GO WITH THE FULL MODEL VALUES OF QPF IN THE
06-12Z TM FRAME...THINKING THAT DRY SUB CLD AIR MAY RESULT IN
SOME INITIAL EVAPORATION OF RNFL...SO WE GO WITH CLOSE TO 0.05
INCHES FOR A MAX ACROSS NE TO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA... WITH
LESSER POPS AND QPF AFT 12Z WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME SUN MORN. OTHERWISE...ONLY VERY MODEST
ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE OVRNGT BASED
ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 232234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN MAX/MINS...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE
OVRNGT...SKY CVR...AND POPS TNGT INTO SUN WERE ALL MODIFIED
SOMEWHAT THIS UPDATE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLD CVR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
LAGGING BEHIND WHAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS...SO WE
DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLD CVR AND AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS ABOUT 2
TO 3 HRS.

WITH WINDS SLATED TO DIMINISH AND SFC RHS TO INCREASE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVE HRS...WE OPTED TO CANX THE REMAINING PTN OF
THE RED FLAG WRNG ABOUT 2 HRS ERLY.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 232234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN MAX/MINS...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE
OVRNGT...SKY CVR...AND POPS TNGT INTO SUN WERE ALL MODIFIED
SOMEWHAT THIS UPDATE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLD CVR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
LAGGING BEHIND WHAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS...SO WE
DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLD CVR AND AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS ABOUT 2
TO 3 HRS.

WITH WINDS SLATED TO DIMINISH AND SFC RHS TO INCREASE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVE HRS...WE OPTED TO CANX THE REMAINING PTN OF
THE RED FLAG WRNG ABOUT 2 HRS ERLY.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 232234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN MAX/MINS...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE
OVRNGT...SKY CVR...AND POPS TNGT INTO SUN WERE ALL MODIFIED
SOMEWHAT THIS UPDATE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLD CVR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
LAGGING BEHIND WHAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS...SO WE
DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLD CVR AND AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS ABOUT 2
TO 3 HRS.

WITH WINDS SLATED TO DIMINISH AND SFC RHS TO INCREASE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVE HRS...WE OPTED TO CANX THE REMAINING PTN OF
THE RED FLAG WRNG ABOUT 2 HRS ERLY.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 232234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN MAX/MINS...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE
OVRNGT...SKY CVR...AND POPS TNGT INTO SUN WERE ALL MODIFIED
SOMEWHAT THIS UPDATE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLD CVR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
LAGGING BEHIND WHAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS...SO WE
DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLD CVR AND AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS ABOUT 2
TO 3 HRS.

WITH WINDS SLATED TO DIMINISH AND SFC RHS TO INCREASE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVE HRS...WE OPTED TO CANX THE REMAINING PTN OF
THE RED FLAG WRNG ABOUT 2 HRS ERLY.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST.
SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST.
SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST.
SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 231855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST.
SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231846
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY A COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&
$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231846
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY A COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&
$$




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