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000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE








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000
FXUS61 KCAR 301000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD DECK HAS SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE FORMATION OF
FOG. MEANWHILE, NORTHERN MAINE IS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
RIVER VALLEY FOG EVIDENT ON LOCAL WEBCAMS. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER
AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE
LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ONLY CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD DECK HAS SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE FORMATION OF
FOG. MEANWHILE, NORTHERN MAINE IS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
RIVER VALLEY FOG EVIDENT ON LOCAL WEBCAMS. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER
AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE
LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ONLY CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND
50 IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND
50 IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND
50 IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNRISE.
THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND
50 IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNRISE.
THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN









000
FXUS61 KGYX 300722 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE






000
FXUS61 KGYX 300722 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 300721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 300721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300449
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, WINDS,
AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300449
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, WINDS,
AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300449
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, WINDS,
AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300449
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, WINDS,
AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KGYX 300206
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1006 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST T/TD/SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS...BUT
FORECAST GENERALLY UNCHANGED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL
MINS OVERNIGHT.

625 PM...CU/STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE HEATING. ACTUALLY
SEEING SOME BUILDUPS TO THE N OF THE OFFICE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE DIMINISH TOO. ALSO...NOTING RETURN OF THIN
SMOKE LYR FROM THE VIS SAT IN THE UPPR LVLS THIS EVE...AS
TRAJECTORY WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING IT IN FROM LARGE AREA OF FIRES
IN CANADIAN NW TERRITORIES AND NRN ALBERTA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 40S N AND 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300147
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
934 PM...A COOL/DRY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT/CALM WIND...AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. POTENTIAL
THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB












000
FXUS61 KCAR 300147
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
934 PM...A COOL/DRY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT/CALM WIND...AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. POTENTIAL
THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB











000
FXUS61 KCAR 300134
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
934 PM...A COOL/DRY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT/CALM WIND...AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. POTENTIAL
THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB









000
FXUS61 KCAR 300134
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
934 PM...A COOL/DRY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT/CALM WIND...AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. POTENTIAL
THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 292232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
632 PM...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM LAST EVENING WHEN A MUGGY AIR
MASS AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FUELED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THAT CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. NOW...HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAKING FOR A CLEAR NIGHT. THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN AND
LIGHT WIND WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE THAT FOG FORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
632 PM...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM LAST EVENING WHEN A MUGGY AIR
MASS AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FUELED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THAT CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. NOW...HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAKING FOR A CLEAR NIGHT. THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN AND
LIGHT WIND WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE THAT FOG FORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
632 PM...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM LAST EVENING WHEN A MUGGY AIR
MASS AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FUELED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THAT CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. NOW...HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAKING FOR A CLEAR NIGHT. THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN AND
LIGHT WIND WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE THAT FOG FORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
632 PM...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM LAST EVENING WHEN A MUGGY AIR
MASS AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FUELED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THAT CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. NOW...HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAKING FOR A CLEAR NIGHT. THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN AND
LIGHT WIND WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE THAT FOG FORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KGYX 292228
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
625 PM...CU/STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE HEATING. ACTUALLY
SEEING SOME BUILDUPS TO THE N OF THE OFFICE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE DIMINISH TOO. ALSO...NOTING RETURN OF THIN
SMOKE LYR FROM THE VIS SAT IN THE UPPR LVLS THIS EVE...AS
TRAJECTORY WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING IT IN FROM LARGE AREA OF FIRES
IN CANADIAN NW TERRITORIES AND NRN ALBERTA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 40S N AND 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 292228
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
625 PM...CU/STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE HEATING. ACTUALLY
SEEING SOME BUILDUPS TO THE N OF THE OFFICE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE DIMINISH TOO. ALSO...NOTING RETURN OF THIN
SMOKE LYR FROM THE VIS SAT IN THE UPPR LVLS THIS EVE...AS
TRAJECTORY WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING IT IN FROM LARGE AREA OF FIRES
IN CANADIAN NW TERRITORIES AND NRN ALBERTA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 40S N AND 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 291940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT W/WINDS 10-15 KTS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT W/THE
EXPECTATION OF SEAS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF. FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS
DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS
FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY










000
FXUS61 KCAR 291940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT W/WINDS 10-15 KTS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT W/THE
EXPECTATION OF SEAS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF. FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS
DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS
FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY











000
FXUS61 KGYX 291918
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z
OR 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
HAWLEY/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291918
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z
OR 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
HAWLEY/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291918
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z
OR 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
HAWLEY/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291918
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z
OR 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
HAWLEY/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 291717
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO KEEP 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWED SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIES OUT AROUND SUNSET W/SKIES
CLEARING OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 291717
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO KEEP 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWED SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIES OUT AROUND SUNSET W/SKIES
CLEARING OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 291400
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
947 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MATCH THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WHICH MEANS A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING
THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291311
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
911 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WILL JUST ADJUST TEMPS,
DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.


PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
TFH






000
FXUS61 KGYX 291101
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE: TOOK OUT PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG AND ANY MENTION OF
EARLY MRNG SHWRS IN THE MTNS...OTRW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291101
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE: TOOK OUT PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG AND ANY MENTION OF
EARLY MRNG SHWRS IN THE MTNS...OTRW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291101
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE: TOOK OUT PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG AND ANY MENTION OF
EARLY MRNG SHWRS IN THE MTNS...OTRW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291101
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE: TOOK OUT PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG AND ANY MENTION OF
EARLY MRNG SHWRS IN THE MTNS...OTRW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KGYX 290745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1125 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1125 PM UPDATE...AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SOMERSET, PISCATAQUIS, AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO COME UP AND ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AS
OF 9 PM...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. A BIT RELUCTANT TO
DROP THE SCA JUST YET AS THE SFC LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF TIME THAT THE WIND
COULD PICK UP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF
THE AREA. IF THE SEAS DO NOT BUILD AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF 4
PM TODAY. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE
ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF 7.25"
OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1125 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1125 PM UPDATE...AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SOMERSET, PISCATAQUIS, AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO COME UP AND ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AS
OF 9 PM...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. A BIT RELUCTANT TO
DROP THE SCA JUST YET AS THE SFC LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF TIME THAT THE WIND
COULD PICK UP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF
THE AREA. IF THE SEAS DO NOT BUILD AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF 4
PM TODAY. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE
ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF 7.25"
OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KGYX 290318
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1118 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1105 PM UPDATE: ATTM A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS ECNTRL
NH AND THE WRN MTNS OF ME...OTRW DRY CONDS ELSWHR. ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT THE FEW REMAINING AREAS OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NEWD AND ALSO TO BETTER
REFLECT MOST OF THE AREAS BEING SHWR FREE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND FROM ALL THE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVLOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISC:
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY VFR CONDS THE REST OF
THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONT THE SCA FOR THE REST OF TNGT AND TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS. THE SCA IN THE BAYS WAS DISCONTINUED. EXPECT WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD TO
SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 290318
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1118 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1105 PM UPDATE: ATTM A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS ECNTRL
NH AND THE WRN MTNS OF ME...OTRW DRY CONDS ELSWHR. ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT THE FEW REMAINING AREAS OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NEWD AND ALSO TO BETTER
REFLECT MOST OF THE AREAS BEING SHWR FREE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND FROM ALL THE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVLOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISC:
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY VFR CONDS THE REST OF
THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONT THE SCA FOR THE REST OF TNGT AND TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS. THE SCA IN THE BAYS WAS DISCONTINUED. EXPECT WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD TO
SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 290151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM...THE WATCH IS GONE AND THE LAST OF SEVER IS EXITING THE
CWA ATTM. WATCHING A SECOND ROUND OF NON-SEVERE SHRA/TSRAS MOVING
INTO THE CT VLY OF CENTRAL AND NRN NH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH. THIS WILL LIFT NE AND COULD EFFECT THE
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS OF BOTH NH AND ME THROUGH ABOUT 5-6Z. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE STORMS...THERE WAS PLENTY OF
RAIN AND LOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS INLAND...AS WELL AS
COASTAL STRATUS. TDS SHOULD START TO FALL TOO ESPECIALLY IN THE N
BEHIND THE THE 500MB TROUGH...AND IT WILL BE LESS HUMID THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT NOT STILL A BIT ON THE HUMID SIDE.

750 PM...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR AN HOUR UNTIL 9PM IN
ME...AND CANCELED FOR NH.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS
DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 290151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM...THE WATCH IS GONE AND THE LAST OF SEVER IS EXITING THE
CWA ATTM. WATCHING A SECOND ROUND OF NON-SEVERE SHRA/TSRAS MOVING
INTO THE CT VLY OF CENTRAL AND NRN NH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH. THIS WILL LIFT NE AND COULD EFFECT THE
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS OF BOTH NH AND ME THROUGH ABOUT 5-6Z. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE STORMS...THERE WAS PLENTY OF
RAIN AND LOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS INLAND...AS WELL AS
COASTAL STRATUS. TDS SHOULD START TO FALL TOO ESPECIALLY IN THE N
BEHIND THE THE 500MB TROUGH...AND IT WILL BE LESS HUMID THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT NOT STILL A BIT ON THE HUMID SIDE.

750 PM...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR AN HOUR UNTIL 9PM IN
ME...AND CANCELED FOR NH.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS
DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290120
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA THAT
HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND LITTLE/NO SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...THERE IS
STILL THE CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS IN KENNEBEC COUNTY WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ENTERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA.
WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH THE AREA RADARS VERY CLOSELY LATE THIS
EVENING. A DEEP SFC LOW BY JULY STANDARDS IS NEAR PORTLAND. THE
LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BRUSH WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO REFINE THE POPS BASED ON THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO COME UP AND ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AS
OF 9 PM...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. A BIT RELUCTANT TO
DROP THE SCA JUST YET AS THE SFC LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF TIME THAT THE WIND
COULD PICK UP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF
THE AREA. IF THE SEAS DO NOT BUILD AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF 4
PM TODAY. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE
ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF 7.25"
OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KGYX 282351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
750 PM...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR AN HOUR UNTIL 9PM IN
ME...AND CANCELED FOR NH.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST FOR TNGT. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD
TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 282351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
750 PM...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR AN HOUR UNTIL 9PM IN
ME...AND CANCELED FOR NH.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST FOR TNGT. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD
TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 282209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
609 PM UPDATE...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR JULY
(997 MILLIBARS) IS CURRENTLY NEAR KPSM. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN MAINE TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
BY MID MORNING TUE. ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS WRN MAINE LATER TON AND MAY
GET SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A 700 MB LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH
BY WRN MAINE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND. THE MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY LOCALLY
PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE A
CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS
COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH IS 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN
THE FORECAST SEAS BY A FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD.
THE ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF
7.25" OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 282209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
609 PM UPDATE...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR JULY
(997 MILLIBARS) IS CURRENTLY NEAR KPSM. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN MAINE TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
BY MID MORNING TUE. ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS WRN MAINE LATER TON AND MAY
GET SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A 700 MB LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH
BY WRN MAINE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND. THE MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY LOCALLY
PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE A
CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS
COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH IS 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN
THE FORECAST SEAS BY A FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD.
THE ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF
7.25" OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 282139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
539 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. ADJUSTED CHC OF PRCP
THIS EVE PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. OTRW JUST MINOR TWEAKS.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG//WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST FOR TNGT. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD
TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCAR 281951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT W/SOME TSTMS. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FT WHICH IS 1-2
FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE FORECAST SEAS BY A
FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY










000
FXUS61 KCAR 281951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT W/SOME TSTMS. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FT WHICH IS 1-2
FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE FORECAST SEAS BY A
FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY











000
FXUS61 KGYX 281908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
...FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG///WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS
TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
...FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG///WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS
TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
...FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG///WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS
TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
...FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG///WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS
TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281811
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ISSUE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVE FOR ALL
OF OUR NH ZONES AND OUR WRN/SRN MAINE ZONES.

UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281811
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ISSUE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVE FOR ALL
OF OUR NH ZONES AND OUR WRN/SRN MAINE ZONES.

UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 281625
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1225 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281256
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST
THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM
FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION.
SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS
DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS
OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE
W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 281256
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST
THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM
FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION.
SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS
DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS
OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE
W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN






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