[top]
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210132
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
932 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: AFTER LOADING 00Z OBSVD SFC TEMPS...WE DID OPT TO
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS A FEW DEG F FOR NW VLYS. SHARP TEMP FALLS AT A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE ALLAGASH VLY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
VERY SHALLOW BUT MDTLY STRONG SFC BASED INVSN FOR MUCH OF THE
ALLAGASH AND WRN ST JOHN VLYS BY LATE TNGT. GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS
OF THIS INVSN...IT SHOULD BREAK QUICKLY BY DAYBREAK WITH RAPID
SFC TEMP RISE BY SUNRISE. WE ALSO LOWERED WINDS IN MUCH OF THE
RVR VLYS ACROSS THE FA N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...BUT KEPT WINDS THE SAME OUTSIDE OF THESE VLYS.
630 PM UPDATE: AFTER LOADING 21-22Z OBSVD SFC TEMPS...WE RE-
INTERPOLATED HRLY TEMPS TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS AT ARND 09Z.
OTHERWISE... A PLEASANTLY WARM LATE SPRING NGT REMAINS ON TAP
UNDER CLR SKIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.
ORGNL DISC: DRY AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS WILL LIMIT TEMPS JUST A BIT OVER SOUTHERN
MAINE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST; HIGHS HERE WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. CLOUDS WILL NOT ENCROACH ON NORTHERN
MAINE UNTIL AFTER DARK, SO ANOTHER SUNNY AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC...THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...TO THE GULF COAST. A TROPICAL LOW STATIONARY ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A WEAK LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEA BOARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXTENDED FROM
THE N ATLANTIC INTO MAINE THAT HAS BEGUN TO RETREAT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO S CNTRL
FL. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE ECMWF AND NAM MOVE THE TROPICAL LOW
INTO SC. THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FURTHER RETREATS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO SERN QUEBEC.
THE OTHER COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROP SUPPORTS THE LOW TO QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT OF THE VARIOUS LOWS. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL MODELS MOVE
THE COLD FRONT TO THE ERN SEA BOARD. THE TROPICAL LOW TO THE COAST
OF NC EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER CUTTING OFF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW OVER CANADIAN RAPIDLY MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A NEW LOW DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO MAINE. THE CUT OFF
LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CAROLINA. THE NEW LOW MOVES NE INTO
SRN CANADA NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLUS 25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUST...PLUS 15 PERCENT OVER LAND. LOADED
MATCH GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN. LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR
SKY/POP/WIND/TEMP AND DP.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL RESTRENGTHEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE AROUND EARLY THURSDAY. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
THEN TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S DOWNEAST AND
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING FOR 80 IN SOME CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SPOTS WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. MODERATELY COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: INTERMITTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN
PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE: UPDATED WV HTS THRU 06Z TO KEEP FCST WV HTS UP
ARND 4 TO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS MZS THRU MOST OF THE NGT TO
MATCH CURRENT BUOY OBS. WITH WV PDS OF 8 TO 9 SEC...THE SLOPES OF
THESE WVS WILL BE GENTLE ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS.
ORGNL DISC: SOUTH SWELL JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA FROM A DEPARTING
STORM WELL E OVR THE OPEN ATLC WILL CONTINUE INTO ERLY MON. SOUTH
WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER MON AS NEW LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. WAVES WILL CONT TO BE IN THE 3-5 FT
WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM.
SHORT TERM:AN SCA FOR SEAS MAYBE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/NORTON
[top]
000
FXUS61 KGYX 210129
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
925 PM...WEST-EAST SURFACE RIDGE WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES TO THE
FORECAST AREA AT MOMENT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO WORK INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON MESONET...OTHERWISE NIL OTHER
CHANGES.
PREV DISC...
630 PM...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS BASED ON MESONET.
PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF
TONIGHT TO BE CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARD
DAWN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVES SLOWLY NORTH RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME FOG ADVECTING IN OFF THE WATER LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDS
THICKENING UP FASTER IN SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH TEMPS HERE WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 60S. FARTHER
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG ARE FORECAST AS
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE SAME TROPICAL AIR HAS T.S.ALBERTO
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS ARE AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES WHICH IS
CLOSE TO +2SD ABOVE NORMAL...INDICATING WE COULD HAVE SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT.
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT BUT LOSES STEAM AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SATURDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY WITH IFR LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IFR
EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.
LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH MOSTLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE IN LATE MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP FUELS BECOME WET ONCE AGAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ES
000
FXUS61 KCAR 202240
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
640 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
0630 PM UPDATE: AFTER LOADING 21-22Z OBSVD SFC TEMPS...WE RE-
INTERPOLATED HRLY TEMPS TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS AT ARND 09Z. OTHERWISE...
A PLEASANTLY WARM LATE SPRING NGT REMAINS ON TAP UNDER CLR SKIES
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.
ORGNL DISC: DRY AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS WILL LIMIT TEMPS JUST A BIT OVER SOUTHERN
MAINE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST; HIGHS HERE WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. CLOUDS WILL NOT ENCROACH ON NORTHERN
MAINE UNTIL AFTER DARK, SO ANOTHER SUNNY AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC...THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...TO THE GULF COAST. A TROPICAL LOW STATIONARY ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A WEAK LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEA BOARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXTENDED FROM
THE N ATLANTIC INTO MAINE THAT HAS BEGUN TO RETREAT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO S CNTRL
FL. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE ECMWF AND NAM MOVE THE TROPICAL LOW
INTO SC. THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FURTHER RETREATS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO SERN QUEBEC.
THE OTHER COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROP SUPPORTS THE LOW TO QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT OF THE VARIOUS LOWS. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL MODELS MOVE
THE COLD FRONT TO THE ERN SEA BOARD. THE TROPICAL LOW TO THE COAST
OF NC EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER CUTTING OFF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW OVER CANADIAN RAPIDLY MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A NEW LOW DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO MAINE. THE CUT OFF
LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CAROLINA. THE NEW LOW MOVES NE INTO
SRN CANADA NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLUS 25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUST...PLUS 15 PERCENT OVER LAND. LOADED
MATCH GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN. LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR
SKY/POP/WIND/TEMP AND DP.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL RESTRENGTHEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE AROUND EARLY THURSDAY. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
THEN TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S DOWNEAST AND
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING FOR 80 IN SOME CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SPOTS WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. MODERATELY COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: INTERMITTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTH SWELL JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA FROM A DEPARTING STORM
WELL E OVR THE OPEN ATLC WILL CONTINUE INTO ERLY MON. SOUTH WINDS
OF 5-10 KT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER MON AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. WAVES WILL CONT TO BE IN THE 3-5 FT
WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM.
SHORT TERM:AN SCA FOR SEAS MAYBE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/NORTON
000
FXUS61 KGYX 202232
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
BASED ON MESONET.
PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF
TONIGHT TO BE CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARD
DAWN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVES SLOWLY NORTH RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME FOG ADVECTING IN OFF THE WATER LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDS
THICKENING UP FASTER IN SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH TEMPS HERE WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 60S. FARTHER
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG ARE FORECAST AS
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE SAME TROPICAL AIR HAS T.S.ALBERTO
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS ARE AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES WHICH IS
CLOSE TO +2SD ABOVE NORMAL...INDICATING WE COULD HAVE SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT.
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT BUT LOSES STEAM AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SATURDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY WITH IFR LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IFR
EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.
LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH MOSTLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE IN LATE MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP FUELS BECOME WET ONCE AGAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ES
000
FXUS61 KCAR 202231
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
631 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
0630 PM UPDATE: AFTER LOADING 21-22Z OBSVD SFC TEMPS...WE RE-
INTERPOLATED HRLY TEMPS TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS AT ARND 09Z. OTHERWISE...
A PLEASANTLY WARM LATE SPRING NGT REMAINS ON TAP UNDER CLR SKIES
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.
ORGNL DISC: DRY AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS WILL LIMIT TEMPS JUST A BIT OVER SOUTHERN
MAINE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST; HIGHS HERE WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. CLOUDS WILL NOT ENCROACH ON NORTHERN
MAINE UNTIL AFTER DARK, SO ANOTHER SUNNY AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC...THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...TO THE GULF COAST. A TROPICAL LOW STATIONARY ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A WEAK LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEA BOARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXTENDED FROM
THE N ATLANTIC INTO MAINE THAT HAS BEGUN TO RETREAT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO S CNTRL
FL. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE ECMWF AND NAM MOVE THE TROPICAL LOW
INTO SC. THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FURTHER RETREATS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO SERN QUEBEC.
THE OTHER COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROP SUPPORTS THE LOW TO QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT OF THE VARIOUS LOWS. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL MODELS MOVE
THE COLD FRONT TO THE ERN SEA BOARD. THE TROPICAL LOW TO THE COAST
OF NC EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER CUTTING OFF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW OVER CANADIAN RAPIDLY MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A NEW LOW DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO MAINE. THE CUT OFF
LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CAROLINA. THE NEW LOW MOVES NE INTO
SRN CANADA NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLUS 25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUST...PLUS 15 PERCENT OVER LAND. LOADED
MATCH GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN. LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR
SKY/POP/WIND/TEMP AND DP.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL RESTRENGTHEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE AROUND EARLY THURSDAY. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
THEN TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S DOWNEAST AND
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING FOR 80 IN SOME CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SPOTS WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. MODERATELY COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: INTERMITTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTH SWELL FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. WAVES WILL BE 4-5 FT WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM:AN SCA FOR SEAS MAYBE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/NORTON
000
FXUS61 KGYX 201917
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF TONIGHT TO
BE CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARD DAWN.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVES SLOWLY NORTH RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME FOG ADVECTING IN OFF THE WATER LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDS
THICKENING UP FASTER IN SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HIGH TEMPS HERE WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 60S. FARTHER
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG ARE FORECAST AS
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE SAME TROPICAL AIR HAS T.S.ALBERTO
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS ARE AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES WHICH IS
CLOSE TO +2SD ABOVE NORMAL...INDICATING WE COULD HAVE SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT.
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT BUT LOSES STEAM AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SATURDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY WITH IFR LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IFR
EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.
LONG TERM...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND FOG AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH MOSTLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE IN LATE MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP FUELS BECOME WET ONCE AGAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
TFH/SH
000
FXUS61 KCAR 201852
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
252 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. TONIGHT WILL
BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WILL BE
SUNNY AND DRY, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
IN THE DAY OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST
MOVES NORTHWARD. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS
WILL LIMIT TEMPS JUST A BIT OVER SOUTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST; HIGHS HERE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. CLOUDS WILL NOT ENCROACH ON NORTHERN MAINE UNTIL AFTER DARK,
SO ANOTHER SUNNY AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC...THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...TO THE GULF COAST. A TROPICAL LOW STATIONARY ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A WEAK LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEA BOARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXTENDED FROM
THE N ALTANTIC INTO MAINE THAT HAS BEGUN TO RETREAT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO S CNTRL
FL. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE ECMWF AND NAM MOVE THE TROPICAL LOW
INTO SC. THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FURTHER RETREATS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO SERN QUEBEC.
THE OTHER COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROP SUPPORTS THE LOW TO QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT OF THE VARIOUS LOWS. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL MODELS MOVE
THE COLD FRONT TO THE ERN SEA BOARD. THE TROPICAL LOW TO THE COAST
OF NC EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER CUTTING OFF A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW OVER CANADIAN RAPIDLY MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A NEW LOW DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO MAINE. THE CUT OFF
LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CAROLINA. THE NEW LOW MOVES NE INTO
SRN CANADA NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLUS 25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUST...PLUS 15 PERCENT OVER LAND. LOADED
MATCH GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN. LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR
SKY/POP/WIND/TEMP AND DP.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL RESTRENGTHEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE AROUND EARLY THURSDAY. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
THEN TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S DOWNEAST AND
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING FOR 80 IN SOME CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SPOTS WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. MODERATELY COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR
THE WEEKEND BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: INTERMITTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTH SWELL FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. WAVES WILL BE 4-5 FT WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM:AN SCA FOR SEAS MAYBE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON
000
FXUS61 KCAR 201755 CCA
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
155 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 UPDATE...VERY WARM CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S, EVEN THE LOWER 80S IN
SOME SPOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. ALSO REMOVED
ALL CLOUDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST MAINE AS SKIES ARE NOW SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS STREAMING SE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE PER THE
LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY AND USING THE BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR BKN- OVC CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING. FURTHER S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, LESS CLOUDS W/MORE
SUNSHINE. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING E WILL PUSH CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN AREA TO THE E BY AFTERNOON W/MOST SUN RETURNING. IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, DECIDED TO BUMP READINGS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST MAINLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
COAST AS A S WIND KICKS IN BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE. THEREFORE, AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, READINGS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
LOWER 80S.
CLEAR AND MILD FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT & BACKED AWAY FROM THE
GMOS STAYING CLOSER TO THE DAYCREW/S MINS OF LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE REGION LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFTS NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATED SEAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SWELLS. DAYCREW WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDED THE MENTION OF A SWELL AS WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 4-5 FT W/A 11
SECOND PERIOD. THIS IS A FOOT ABOVE THE SWAN AND WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING GENERATED FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 4-5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR
LESS.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 201643
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1243 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 UPDATE...VERY WARM CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S, EVEN THE LOWER 80S IN
SOME SPOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. ALSO REMOVED
ALL CLOUDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST MAINE AS SKIES ARE NOW SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS STREAMING SE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE PER THE
LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY AND USING THE BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR BKN- OVC CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING. FURTHER S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, LESS CLOUDS W/MORE
SUNSHINE. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING E WILL PUSH CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN AREA TO THE E BY AFTERNOON W/MOST SUN RETURNING. IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, DECIDED TO BUMP READINGS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST MAINLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
COAST AS A S WIND KICKS IN BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE. THEREFORE, AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, READINGS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
LOWER 80S.
CLEAR AND MILD FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT & BACKED AWAY FROM THE
GMOS STAYING CLOSER TO THE DAYCREW/S MINS OF LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE REGION LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFTS NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATED SEAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SWELLS. DAYCREW WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDED THE MENTION OF A SWELL AS WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 4-5 FT W/A 11
SECOND PERIOD. THIS IS A FOOT ABOVE THE SWAN AND WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING GENERATED FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 4-5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR
LESS.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
SHORT TERM:
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 201347
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
947 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO BRING SKY COVER INTO
AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS STREAMING SE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE PER THE
LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY AND USING THE BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR BKN- OVC CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING. FURTHER S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, LESS CLOUDS W/MORE
SUNSHINE. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING E WILL PUSH CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN AREA TO THE E BY AFTERNOON W/MOST SUN RETURNING. IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, DECIDED TO BUMP READINGS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST MAINLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
COAST AS A S WIND KICKS IN BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE. THEREFORE, AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, READINGS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
LOWER 80S.
CLEAR AND MILD FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT & BACKED AWAY FROM THE
GMOS STAYING CLOSER TO THE DAYCREW/S MINS OF LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE REGION LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFTS NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATED SEAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SWELLS. DAYCREW WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDED THE MENTION OF A SWELL AS WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 4-5 FT W/A 11
SECOND PERIOD. THIS IS A FOOT ABOVE THE SWAN AND WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING GENERATED FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 4-5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR
LESS.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
SHORT TERM:
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 201328
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL UPDATE DIGITAL PRODUCTS
WITH CURRENT TEMPS.
PREVIOUSLY...500MB RIDGING AND SFC HIGH HOLD ON FOR ABOUT 24 MORE
HOURS AS WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT MID LVLS CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN WARMER AIR...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO APPROACH 15C
TODAY....AND SHOULD MIX PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT...SO EXPECTING MOST
INLAND SPOTS TO MAKE IT TOM 80...WITH NORMALLY WARMER PLACES
REACHING INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST...WILL
SEE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL 17 OR
18Z...SO...EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES...COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MAKE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
COOLS THINGS DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME CI STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO SOME RAD COOLING POSSIBLE WITH LOWS MID
40S TO LOW 50S.
ON MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING PROGRESS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CLOSED 500MB LOW
OVER THE SERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TS ALBERTO...BUT MAY DRAG
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD MONDAY WILL
SEE EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE INLAND...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AND DZ DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SHRA AS WELL IN THE SR
ZONES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS
ATTM...WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION AND INTO THE MARITIMES. WHILE
NOT T.S. ALBERTO IN ORIGIN...IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ON TUE. COMPLICATING THE FCST WILL BE A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL ACT TO KICK OUT THE
COASTAL LOW BEFORE IT CAN GET TOO FAR W. HOWEVER...SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THRU THE CWA...WITH HEAVY RAFL PSBL AT
TIMES. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL TUE...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT.
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN LATER TUE AS LOW PRES PULLS
AWAY...WITH SHRA INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE MTNS.
COLD FNT SWEEPS THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND CLEARS THE COAST BY
LATE WED. SOME LINGERING SHRA OR CLOUDS WILL BE PSBL IN THE FAR S
WED BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. NEXT FNT APPROACHES THE FCST AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS RIDGE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FNT...SW FLOW COULD BRING IN VERY WARM TEMPS.
THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT
THIS RANGE THOUGH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STEEPER LAPSE RATES EJECTING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
COUPLING WITH STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A
TSTM EVENT OR TWO FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING
THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...HAVE NOT DEPARTED MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST. HOWEVER...FCST PATTERN AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD
SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR OR IFR IN FOG AND DZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KPSM AND KPWM.
LONG TERM...MVFR OF LOWER CONDS PSBL LATE MON INTO TUE WITH SHRA
FROM COASTAL LOW PRES. THEN COLD FNT APPROACHES FROM THE W WITH
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN SHRA LATE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN....AND SEAS IN THE OPEN WATERS CONTINUE AT 3-4 FT IN
SWELL.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TUE LASTING INTO WED...AS LOW PRES PASSES SE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RECOVERY
TONIGHT...AND HIGHER RH VALUES ON MONDAY...AS MOIST AIR AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN MOVE IN MON NIGHT OR TUE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TFH
000
FXUS61 KGYX 201043
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0645...NO REAL CHANGES TO FORECAST...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUSLY...500MB RIDGING AND SFC HIGH HOLD ON FOR ABOUT 24 MORE
HOURS AS WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT MID LVLS CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN WARMER AIR...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO APPROACH 15C
TODAY....AND SHOULD MIX PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT...SO EXPECTING MOST
INLAND SPOTS TO MAKE IT TOM 80...WITH NORMALLY WARMER PLACES
REACHING INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST...WILL
SEE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL 17 OR
18Z...SO...EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES...COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MAKE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
COOLS THINGS DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME CI STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO SOME RAD COOLING POSSIBLE WITH LOWS MID
40S TO LOW 50S.
ON MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING PROGRESS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CLOSED 500MB LOW
OVER THE SERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TS ALBERTO...BUT MAY DRAG
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD MONDAY WILL
SEE EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE INLAND...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AND DZ DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SHRA AS WELL IN THE SR
ZONES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS
ATTM...WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION AND INTO THE MARITIMES. WHILE
NOT T.S. ALBERTO IN ORIGIN...IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ON TUE. COMPLICATING THE FCST WILL BE A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL ACT TO KICK OUT THE
COASTAL LOW BEFORE IT CAN GET TOO FAR W. HOWEVER...SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THRU THE CWA...WITH HEAVY RAFL PSBL AT
TIMES. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL TUE...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT.
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN LATER TUE AS LOW PRES PULLS
AWAY...WITH SHRA INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE MTNS.
COLD FNT SWEEPS THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND CLEARS THE COAST BY
LATE WED. SOME LINGERING SHRA OR CLOUDS WILL BE PSBL IN THE FAR S
WED BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. NEXT FNT APPROACHES THE FCST AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS RIDGE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FNT...SW FLOW COULD BRING IN VERY WARM TEMPS.
THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT
THIS RANGE THOUGH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STEEPER LAPSE RATES EJECTING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
COUPLING WITH STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A
TSTM EVENT OR TWO FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING
THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...HAVE NOT DEPARTED MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST. HOWEVER...FCST PATTERN AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD
SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR OR IFR IN FOG AND DZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KPSM AND KPWM.
LONG TERM...MVFR OF LOWER CONDS PSBL LATE MON INTO TUE WITH SHRA
FROM COASTAL LOW PRES. THEN COLD FNT APPROACHES FROM THE W WITH
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN SHRA LATE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN....AND SEAS IN THE OPEN WATERS CONTINUE AT 3-4 FT IN
SWELL.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TUE LASTING INTO WED...AS LOW PRES PASSES SE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RECOVERY
TONIGHT...AND HIGHER RH VALUES ON MONDAY...AS MOIST AIR AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN MOVE IN MON NIGHT OR TUE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KCAR 200846
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
446 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGES AS WAS SATURDAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS STREAMING SE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE PER THE LATEST IR SATL
IMAGERY AND USING THE BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR BKN-
OVC CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING. FURTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS, LESS CLOUDS W/MORE SUNSHINE. HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDING E WILL PUSH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREA TO THE E BY
AFTERNOON W/MOST SUN RETURNING. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
DECIDED TO BUMP READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST
MAINLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AS A S WIND KICKS IN BRINGING
IN COOLER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. THEREFORE, AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, READINGS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WHILE
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 80S.
CLEAR AND MILD FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT & BACKED AWAY FROM THE
GMOS STAYING CLOSER TO THE DAYCREW/S MINS OF LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE REGION LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFTS NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ADDED THE MENTION OF A SWELL AS WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 4-5 FT
W/A 11 SECOND PERIOD. THIS IS A FOOT ABOVE THE SWAN AND WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING GENERATED FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 4-5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR
LESS.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 200723
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
500MB RIDGING AND SFC HIGH HOLD ON FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS AS WEAK
BUT PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT MID LVLS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN WARMER
AIR...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO APPROACH 15C TODAY....AND SHOULD
MIX PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT...SO EXPECTING MOST INLAND SPOTS TO MAKE
IT TOM 80...WITH NORMALLY WARMER PLACES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S
THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST...WILL SEE THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOP...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL 17 OR 18Z...SO...EXCEPT FOR THE
BEACHES...COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MAKE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE COOLS THINGS DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME CI STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO SOME RAD COOLING POSSIBLE WITH LOWS MID
40S TO LOW 50S.
ON MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING PROGRESS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CLOSED 500MB LOW
OVER THE SERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TS ALBERTO...BUT MAY DRAG
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD MONDAY WILL
SEE EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOP...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE INLAND...COULD SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AND DZ DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SHRA AS WELL IN THE SR
ZONES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES...ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS
ATTM...WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION AND INTO THE MARITIMES. WHILE
NOT T.S. ALBERTO IN ORIGIN...IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ON TUE. COMPLICATING THE FCST WILL BE A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL ACT TO KICK OUT THE
COASTAL LOW BEFORE IT CAN GET TOO FAR W. HOWEVER...SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THRU THE CWA...WITH HEAVY RAFL PSBL AT
TIMES. TSTMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL TUE...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT.
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN LATER TUE AS LOW PRES PULLS
AWAY...WITH SHRA INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE MTNS.
COLD FNT SWEEPS THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND CLEARS THE COAST BY
LATE WED. SOME LINGERING SHRA OR CLOUDS WILL BE PSBL IN THE FAR S
WED BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. NEXT FNT APPROACHES THE FCST AREA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS RIDGE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FNT...SW FLOW COULD BRING IN VERY WARM TEMPS.
THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT
THIS RANGE THOUGH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STEEPER LAPSE RATES EJECTING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
COUPLING WITH STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A
TSTM EVENT OR TWO FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING
THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...HAVE NOT DEPARTED MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST. HOWEVER...FCST PATTERN AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD
SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD COMING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR OR IFR IN FOG AND DZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KPSM AND KPWM.
LONG TERM...MVFR OF LOWER CONDS PSBL LATE MON INTO TUE WITH SHRA
FROM COASTAL LOW PRES. THEN COLD FNT APPROACHES FROM THE W WITH
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN SHRA LATE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN....AND SEAS IN THE OPEN WATERS CONTINUE AT 3-4 FT IN
SWELL.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TUE LASTING INTO WED...AS LOW PRES PASSES SE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RECOVERY
TONIGHT...AND HIGHER RH VALUES ON MONDAY...AS MOIST AIR AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN MOVE IN MON NIGHT OR TUE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 200523
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
123 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY ELEMENTS TO INCLUDE MORE
PERCENTAGES(>65%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA AS A S/WV
MOVES ACROSS SERN CANADA. MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE HRLY
TEMPERATURES TO BRING READINGS UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LAST
3 HR TRENDS. REST OF THE FCST OK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF MID CLD BAND OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN
HAS DISSOLVED TO PATCHY CU...WITH CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA
MCLR ATTM. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVR CNTRL CAN...WE STILL OBSERVE MORE
PATCHY AC IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY
BISECTS N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ATTM...SO WE WILL GO FOR PTLY CLDY
ACROSS THE N AND SOME CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA OVRNGT INTO SUN
MORN...BUT WILL KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS CLR WITH NO MENTION OF SHWRS
ACROSS THE N. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE MILD ACROSS ALL OF THE FA.
ON SUN...WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT MID CLD BAND WILL BE MOVG
E INTO NB PROV DURG THE MORN HRS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MOVE N AND E AS A WARM FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AOA 500 MB. BY
SUN AFTN...SFC-0.5KM WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SW BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE N-S
GRADIENT OF HI TEMPS OBSVD TDY AND ALLOW MOST OF THE FA TO REACH
LOWER 80S...XCPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COURSE...WHERE A SW GRAD
FLOW WIND WILL PROMOTE A MDTLY STRONG AFTN SEA BREEZE AND VERY HI
TRRN LOCATIONS OF THE NW WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER HI
TEMPS THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, BUT DOWNEAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS HERE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
(ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) TO THE MID 70S.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY
IN THE HANDLING OF THE FORMER SYSTEM, THOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS INTO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE
NEARING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TUESDAY`S HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITIONS OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. TUESDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE A LOW NR SRN NOVA
SCOTIA WITH A RAIN SHIELD WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING N INTO CNTRL
NEW BRUNSWICK. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW OVR ERN
QUEBEC...THROUGH WRN ME...DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. BY WEDNESDAY THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. A NEW LOW OVR THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CNTR GREAT LAKES. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE. THE GFS
MOVES A NEW COLD FRONT TO WRN ME...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW OVER
QUEBEC SE OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SRN PORTIONS OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING SW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT TROUGH MAINE. THE
ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OVR THE SRN JAMES BAY REGION. SATURDAY
EVENING THE GFS BUILDS HIGHER PRESSURE INTO MAINE...THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD THE GFS PUSHED THE RIDGE OVER MAINE...THE ECMWF
MOVES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NRN ME. AT THIS TIME THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH BOTH MODELS...THEY ARE NOT THAT DIFFERENT. EACH
MODELS UPPER LEVEL FORECAST SUPPORT THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WILL MOST LIKELY FIND COMMON GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLUS 25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUST...PLUS 15 PERCENT OVER LAND. SHORT
TERM LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR TEMP/WIND/SKY AND POP. MATCH
GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN. LONG TERM GMOS ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO BETTER
SUPPORT THE SKY CON FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU SUN.
SHORT TERM: VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OWING
TO RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU SUN...ALTHOUGH WVS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO NEAR 4 FT OVR OUTER MZS BY SUN AFTN AND TO 2
TO 3 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ AS THE SSW GRAD FLOW SLOWLY
INCREASES FETCH AND SPEED OVR OUR WATERS. WE USED MSLY NAM12
FOR WINDS WITH SOME GFS AND GMOS AND KEPT WV HTS ABOUT A FOOT
BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE...REDUCED A LITTLE MORE ALG THE BAYS AND
HARBORS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT. WAVES
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD REACH AND THEN EXCEED 5 FT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
000
FXUS61 KCAR 200210
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1010 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMP FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
TREND....BUT MAINTAINED FORECAST MIN TEMP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF MID CLD BAND OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN
HAS DISSOLVED TO PATCHY CU...WITH CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA
MCLR ATTM. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVR CNTRL CAN...WE STILL OBSERVE MORE
PATCHY AC IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY
BISECTS N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ATTM...SO WE WILL GO FOR PTLY CLDY
ACROSS THE N AND SOME CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA OVRNGT INTO SUN
MORN...BUT WILL KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS CLR WITH NO MENTION OF SHWRS
ACROSS THE N. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE MILD ACROSS ALL OF THE FA.
ON SUN...WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT MID CLD BAND WILL BE MOVG
E INTO NB PROV DURG THE MORN HRS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MOVE N AND E AS A WARM FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AOA 500 MB. BY
SUN AFTN...SFC-0.5KM WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SW BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE N-S
GRADIENT OF HI TEMPS OBSVD TDY AND ALLOW MOST OF THE FA TO REACH
LOWER 80S...XCPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COURSE...WHERE A SW GRAD
FLOW WIND WILL PROMOTE A MDTLY STRONG AFTN SEA BREEZE AND VERY HI
TRRN LOCATIONS OF THE NW WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER HI
TEMPS THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, BUT DOWNEAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS HERE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
(ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) TO THE MID 70S.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY
IN THE HANDLING OF THE FORMER SYSTEM, THOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS INTO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE
NEARING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TUESDAY`S HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITIONS OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. TUESDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE A LOW NR SRN NOVA
SCOTIA WITH A RAIN SHIELD WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING N INTO CNTRL
NEW BRUNSWICK. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW OVR ERN
QUEBEC...THROUGH WRN ME...DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. BY WEDNESDAY THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. A NEW LOW OVR THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CNTR GREAT LAKES. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE. THE GFS
MOVES A NEW COLD FRONT TO WRN ME...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW OVER
QUEBEC SE OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SRN PORTIONS OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING SW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT TROUGH MAINE. THE
ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OVR THE SRN JAMES BAY REGION. SATURDAY
EVENING THE GFS BUILDS HIGHER PRESSURE INTO MAINE...THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD THE GFS PUSHED THE RIDGE OVER MAINE...THE ECMWF
MOVES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NRN ME. AT THIS TIME THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH BOTH MODELS...THEY ARE NOT THAT DIFFERENT. EACH
MODELS UPPER LEVEL FORECAST SUPPORT THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WILL MOST LIKELY FIND COMMON GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLUS 25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUST...PLUS 15 PERCENT OVER LAND. SHORT
TERM LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR TEMP/WIND/SKY AND POP. MATCH
GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN. LONG TERM GMOS ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO BETTER
SUPPORT THE SKY CON FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU SUN.
SHORT TERM: VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OWING
TO RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU SUN...ALTHOUGH WVS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO NEAR 4 FT OVR OUTER MZS BY SUN AFTN AND TO 2
TO 3 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ AS THE SSW GRAD FLOW SLOWLY
INCREASES FETCH AND SPEED OVR OUR WATERS. WE USED MSLY NAM12
FOR WINDS WITH SOME GFS AND GMOS AND KEPT WV HTS ABOUT A FOOT
BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE...REDUCED A LITTLE MORE ALG THE BAYS AND
HARBORS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT. WAVES
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD REACH AND THEN EXCEED 5 FT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/RUNYAN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/RUNYAN
MARINE...VJN/RUNYAN/HASTINGS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 192258
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
658 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF MID CLD BAND OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN
HAS DISSOLVED TO PATCHY CU...WITH CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA
MCLR ATTM. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVR CNTRL CAN...WE STILL OBSERVE MORE
PATCHY AC IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY
BISECTS N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ATTM...SO WE WILL GO FOR PTLY CLDY
ACROSS THE N AND SOME CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA OVRNGT INTO SUN
MORN...BUT WILL KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS CLR WITH NO MENTION OF SHWRS
ACROSS THE N. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE MILD ACROSS ALL OF THE FA.
ON SUN...WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT MID CLD BAND WILL BE MOVG
E INTO NB PROV DURG THE MORN HRS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MOVE N AND E AS A WARM FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AOA 500 MB. BY
SUN AFTN...SFC-0.5KM WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SW BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE N-S
GRADIENT OF HI TEMPS OBSVD TDY AND ALLOW MOST OF THE FA TO REACH
LOWER 80S...XCPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COURSE...WHERE A SW GRAD
FLOW WIND WILL PROMOTE A MDTLY STRONG AFTN SEA BREEZE AND VERY HI
TRRN LOCATIONS OF THE NW WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER HI
TEMPS THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, BUT DOWNEAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS HERE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
(ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) TO THE MID 70S.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY
IN THE HANDLING OF THE FORMER SYSTEM, THOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS INTO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE
NEARING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TUESDAY`S HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITIONS OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. TUESDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE A LOW NR SRN NOVA
SCOTIA WITH A RAIN SHIELD WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING N INTO CNTRL
NEW BRUNSWICK. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW OVR ERN
QUEBEC...THROUGH WRN ME...DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. BY WEDNESDAY THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. A NEW LOW OVR THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CNTR GREAT LAKES. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE. THE GFS
MOVES A NEW COLD FRONT TO WRN ME...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW OVER
QUEBEC SE OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SRN PORTIONS OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING SW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT TROUGH MAINE. THE
ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OVR THE SRN JAMES BAY REGION. SATURDAY
EVENING THE GFS BUILDS HIGHER PRESSURE INTO MAINE...THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD THE GFS PUSHED THE RIDGE OVER MAINE...THE ECMWF
MOVES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NRN ME. AT THIS TIME THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH BOTH MODELS...THEY ARE NOT THAT DIFFERENT. EACH
MODELS UPPER LEVEL FORECAST SUPPORT THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WILL MOST LIKELY FIND COMMON GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLUS 25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUST...PLUS 15 PERCENT OVER LAND. SHORT
TERM LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR TEMP/WIND/SKY AND POP. MATCH
GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN. LONG TERM GMOS ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO BETTER
SUPPORT THE SKY CON FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU SUN.
SHORT TERM: VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OWING
TO RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU SUN...ALTHOUGH WVS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO NEAR 4 FT OVR OUTER MZS BY SUN AFTN AND TO 2
TO 3 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ AS THE SSW GRAD FLOW SLOWLY
INCREASES FETCH AND SPEED OVR OUR WATERS. WE USED MSLY NAM12
FOR WINDS WITH SOME GFS AND GMOS AND KEPT WV HTS ABOUT A FOOT
BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE...REDUCED A LITTLE MORE ALG THE BAYS AND
HARBORS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT. WAVES
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD REACH AND THEN EXCEED 5 FT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/RUNYAN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/RUNYAN
MARINE...VJN/RUNYAN/HASTINGS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 191944
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF MID CLD BAND OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN HAS
DISSOLVED TO PATCHY CU...WITH CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA MCLR
ATTM. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVR CNTRL CAN...WE STILL OBSERVE MORE PATCHY
AC IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY BISECTS N
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ATTM...SO WE WILL GO FOR PTLY CLDY ACROSS
THE N AND SOME CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA OVRNGT INTO SUN MORN...BUT
WILL KEEP DOWNEAST AREAS CLR WITH NO MENTION OF SHWRS ACROSS THE
N. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE MILD ACROSS ALL OF THE FA.
ON SUN...WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT MID CLD BAND WILL BE MOVG
E INTO NB PROV DURG THE MORN HRS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MOVE N AND E AS A WARM FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AOA 500 MB. BY
SUN AFTN...SFC-0.5KM WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SW BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE N-S
GRADIENT OF HI TEMPS OBSVD TDY AND ALLOW MOST OF THE FA TO REACH
LOWER 80S...XCPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COURSE...WHERE A SW GRAD
FLOW WIND WILL PROMOTE A MDTLY STRONG AFTN SEA BREEZE AND VERY HI
TRRN LOCATIONS OF THE NW WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER HI
TEMPS THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, BUT DOWNEAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS HERE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
(ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) TO THE MID 70S.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY
IN THE HANDLING OF THE FORMER SYSTEM, THOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS INTO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO DOWNEAST MAINE, WHILE THE
NEARING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TUESDAY`S HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITIONS OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. TUESDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE A LOW NR SRN NOVA
SCOTIA WITH A RAIN SHIELD WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING N INTO CNTRL
NEW BRUNSWICK. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW OVR ERN
QUEBEC...THROUGH WRN ME...DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. BY WEDNESDAY THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MAINE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. A NEW LOW OVR THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CNTR GREAT LAKES. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE. THE GFS
MOVES A NEW COLD FRONT TO WRN ME...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW OVER
QUEBEC SE OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SRN PORTIONS OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING SW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT TROUGH MAINE. THE
ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OVR THE SRN JAMES BAY REGION. SATURDAY
EVENING THE GFS BUILDS HIGHER PRESSURE INTO MAINE...THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD THE GFS PUSHED THE RIDGE OVER MAINE...THE ECMWF
MOVES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NRN ME. AT THIS TIME THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH BOTH MODELS...THEY ARE NOT THAT DIFFERENT. EACH
MODELS UPPER LEVEL FORECAST SUPPORT THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WILL MOST LIKELY FIND COMMON GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLUS 25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUST...PLUS 15 PERCENT OVER LAND. SHORT
TERM LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR TEMP/WIND/SKY AND POP. MATCH
GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN. LONG TERM GMOS ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO BETTER
SUPPORT THE SKY CON FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU SUN.
SHORT TERM: VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OWING
TO RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU SUN...ALTHOUGH WVS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO NEAR 4 FT OVR OUTER MZS BY SUN AFTN AND TO 2
TO 3 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ AS THE SSW GRAD FLOW SLOWLY
INCREASES FETCH AND SPEED OVR OUR WATERS. WE USED MSLY NAM12
FOR WINDS WITH SOME GFS AND GMOS AND KEPT WV HTS ABOUT A FOOT
BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE...REDUCED A LITTLE MORE ALG THE BAYS AND
HARBORS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT. WAVES
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD REACH AND THEN EXCEED 5 FT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191854
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STALLED WEST-EAST BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS REMAIN TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CLEAR AND
COOL TONIGHT UNDER RIDGE WITH SCATTERED VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN
TODAY...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO DIFFERENCE IN COASTAL TEMPERATURES AS
FLOW GOES ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INLAND SECTIONS
HOWEVER SHOULD EASILY REACH AND EXCEED THE 80F MARK.
THE RIDGE HOLDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING
DEW POINTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SQUEEZED EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FIRST ALONG THE COAST AND
THEN WILL SHIFT INLAND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY.
THE GFS IS INDICATING SOME CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT COULD
RESULT IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES REALLY RAMP UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST
OF NH AND MAINE. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AS WEAK
WAVES PASS BY...BUT THEY ARE TOO INSIGNIFICANT TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z MONDAY/...MAINLY VFR. VLY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KLEB/KCON...THEN AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
THEREAFTER.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT OR MORE
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES CLOSE
BY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ES/HANES
000
FXUS61 KCAR 191700
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE: WE LESSENED CLD CVR S OF NW AND NE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN BASED ON RECENT SAT IMAGERY
TRENDS. CURRENT HRLY TEMP TRENDS LOOK REASONABLY ON TARGET TO FCST
HIGHS ATTM.
0930 AM UPDATE: MADE ADJUSTMENT TO CLD CVR ACROSS SPCLY NRN AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. ACROSS THE N...AC CLD CVR WILL HAVE GREATEST
CVRG AND OPACITY...BUT EVEN HERE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF BREAKS
AND THINNER OPACITY...SO FOR NW AND FAR NERN ME...WE WILL GO WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN FCST WORDING TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SUNNIER PDS DURG THE DAY. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SPRINKLES
OR SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE AS MID/LOW
LVL WARM ADVCN INCREASES...BUT WITH WEAK FORCING ALF AND LITTLE
LLVL MOISTURE ADVCN/CNVRG ALG/AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WE DO
NOT XPCT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RNFL FOR THE FEW LOCATIONS
THAT MAY EXPERIENCE A SHWR. FURTHER S...POTENTIAL OF SUNSHINE
INCREASES AS ONE TRAVERSES E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...
WHERE WARMER HI TEMPS THAN YSTDY ARE XPCTD. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS
ACROSS THE N THIS AFTN IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE NEAR
TERM ATTM...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE OCCURS...OF COURSE.
FOR NOW... WE LOADED OBSVD 13Z HRLY TEMPS ACROSS THE FA AND MERGED
THEM TO UNMODIFIED POSTED HI TEMPS AT 20Z TO CREATE AN UPDATED
HRLY TEMP TREND...WITH DEPARTURES TO THIS TREND OVR THE NEXT 2 TO
3 HRS WITH SAT IMAGERY HOPEFULLY DICTATING ANY NECESSARY UPDATES
TO AFT FCST HI TEMPS ON THE NEXT UPDATE.
PRIOR UPDATE: TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED THIS MORNING TO MATCH
CURRENT READINGS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRID TO
ALLOW FOR MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.
ORGNL DISC: MAJOR CHALLENGES THIS TERM ARE THE CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE W/A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON THE SATL WV IMAGERY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS
BRINGING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY W/CLOUDS
HANGING ON. THIS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES KEEPING
THEM DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 W/LIGHT WSW WINDS.
ANOTHER S/WV IS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS AND THE GEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONT FURTHER S INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEFORE STALLING OUT
LATER TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS AND THE GEM FOR THE
SKY GRIDS WHICH SHOW MORE CLOUDS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS THERE ESPECIALLY
FROM THE GFS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE,
DECIDED TO CARRY 20% POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/POPS BELOW 15% FURTHER EAST. BOOSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP A CATEGORY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NICE
SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH AND MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE
COAST LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF BELOW 4 FT RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 WAS
USED FOR THE WINDS OF 10 KTS. FOLLOWED THE DAYCREW/S ASSESSMENT OF
SEAS 2-4 FT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191620
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE.
920 AM...1024 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER VERMONT AT 13Z WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE. I ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE MAINE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
AND 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR UPDATE. THE 12Z KGYX RAOB
SUPPORTS 80F WITH FULL SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR MOST
COMMUNITIES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE OUR LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS ONSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAV A GUD DAY.
0630...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY/TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT OBS. ENJOY THE DAY!
PREVIOUSLY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING...WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WARM SPRING DAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT...AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE W-SW GRADIENT
FLOW...WHICH WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE ON THE COAST
A BIT...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE WARMER MIDDAY MAXES THERE AS WELL.
INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES WITH SOME
READINGS AROUND 80 IN THE SRN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
500MB REX BLOCKING...WITH RIDGING OVER NERN CONUS...WILL HOLD
THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEAR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A BETTER CHC FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GIVEN HIGHER TDS AND ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. MIGHT
SEE A BIT OF THICKER CI MOVE ACROSS NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 2-4 F
WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE AT LEAST 80...AND SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SRN NH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE MON RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN FROM LOW PRES RIDING UP THE
EAST COAST TO SPREAD S TO N ACROSS THE CWA. SFC RIDGING WILL TRY
AND HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO EXPECT SO DRY AIR TO ERODE
THE LEADING EDGE OF RAFL AND THE PCPN SHIELD TO SLOW DOWN SOME
MON. BY MON NGT RAFL SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE THE FAR NRN MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...AND APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
PUSHING +2 SD ANOMALY FOR THIS AREA...THIS WOULD MEAN SOME HEAVY
RAFL COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PCPN MON NGT AND TUE. AHEAD OF A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W ON TUE...SOME HIGHER LAPSE RATES
WILL WORK IN ALOFT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...BUT AN
ISOLD TSTM WILL BE PSBL.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PUSH OF THE COLD FNT. WITH THE
19/00Z GFS QUICKER TO CLEAR THE COAST. PREFERRED THE 18/12Z ECMWF
TIMING AS IT WAS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. BEYOND
THAT TIME FNT MAY STALL NEAR THE SRN CWA. THIS COULD KEEP A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND SCHC SHRA AROUND...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. VLY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KLEB/LCON...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC FOR IT
TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL AGAIN SEE FLOW SHIFT ONSHORE AND
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA LATE MON THRU
WED. ISOLD TSTMS LOOK PSBL TUE AHEAD OF COLD FNT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY...WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SWELL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THANKS TO NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 30PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BOTH DAYS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ES
000
FXUS61 KCAR 191351
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
951 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0930 AM UPDATE: MADE ADJUSTMENT TO CLD CVR ACROSS SPCLY NRN AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. ACROSS THE N...AC CLD CVR WILL HAVE GREATEST
CVRG AND OPACITY...BUT EVEN HERE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF BREAKS
AND THINNER OPACITY...SO FOR NW AND FAR NERN ME...WE WILL GO WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN FCST WORDING TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SUNNIER PDS DURG THE DAY. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SPRINKLES
OR SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE AS MID/LOW
LVL WARM ADVCN INCREASES...BUT WITH WEAK FORCING ALF AND LITTLE
LLVL MOISTURE ADVCN/CNVRG ALG/AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WE DO
NOT XPCT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RNFL FOR THE FEW LOCATIONS
THAT MAY EXPERIENCE A SHWR. FURTHER S...POTENTIAL OF SUNSHINE
INCREASES AS ONE TRAVERSES E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...
WHERE WARMER HI TEMPS THAN YSTDY ARE XPCTD. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS
ACROSS THE N THIS AFTN IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE NEAR
TERM ATTM...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE OCCURS...OF COURSE.
FOR NOW... WE LOADED OBSVD 13Z HRLY TEMPS ACROSS THE FA AND MERGED
THEM TO UNMODIFIED POSTED HI TEMPS AT 20Z TO CREATE AN UPDATED
HRLY TEMP TREND...WITH DEPARTURES TO THIS TREND OVR THE NEXT 2 TO
3 HRS WITH SAT IMAGERY HOPEFULLY DICTATING ANY NECESSARY UPDATES
TO AFT FCST HI TEMPS ON THE NEXT UPDATE.
PRIOR UPDATE: TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED THIS MORNING TO MATCH
CURRENT READINGS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRID TO
ALLOW FOR MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.
ORGNL DISC: MAJOR CHALLENGES THIS TERM ARE THE CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE W/A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON THE SATL WV IMAGERY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS
BRINGING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY W/CLOUDS
HANGING ON. THIS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES KEEPING
THEM DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 W/LIGHT WSW WINDS.
ANOTHER S/WV IS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS AND THE GEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONT FURTHER S INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEFORE STALLING OUT
LATER TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS AND THE GEM FOR THE
SKY GRIDS WHICH SHOW MORE CLOUDS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS THERE ESPECIALLY
FROM THE GFS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE,
DECIDED TO CARRY 20% POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/POPS BELOW 15% FURTHER EAST. BOOSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP A CATEGORY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NICE
SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH AND MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE
COAST LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF BELOW 4 FT RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 WAS
USED FOR THE WINDS OF 10 KTS. FOLLOWED THE DAYCREW/S ASSESSMENT OF
SEAS 2-4 FT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191332
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
932 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...1024 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER VERMONT AT 13Z WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE. I ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER TO FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE MAINE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
AND 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR UPDATE. THE 12Z KGYX RAOB
SUPPORTS 80F WITH FULL SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR MOST
COMMUNITIES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE OUR LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS ONSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAV A GUD DAY.
0630...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY/TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT OBS. ENJOY THE DAY!
PREVIOUSLY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING...WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WARM SPRING DAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT...AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE W-SW GRADIENT
FLOW...WHICH WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE ON THE COAST
A BIT...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE WARMER MIDDAY MAXES THERE AS WELL.
INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES WITH SOME
READINGS AROUND 80 IN THE SRN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
500MB REX BLOCKING...WITH RIDGING OVER NERN CONUS...WILL HOLD
THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEAR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A BETTER CHC FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GIVEN HIGHER TDS AND ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. MIGHT
SEE A BIT OF THICKER CI MOVE ACROSS NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 2-4 F
WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE AT LEAST 80...AND SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SRN NH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE MON RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN FROM LOW PRES RIDING UP THE
EAST COAST TO SPREAD S TO N ACROSS THE CWA. SFC RIDGING WILL TRY
AND HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO EXPECT SO DRY AIR TO ERODE
THE LEADING EDGE OF RAFL AND THE PCPN SHIELD TO SLOW DOWN SOME
MON. BY MON NGT RAFL SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE THE FAR NRN MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...AND APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
PUSHING +2 SD ANOMALY FOR THIS AREA...THIS WOULD MEAN SOME HEAVY
RAFL COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PCPN MON NGT AND TUE. AHEAD OF A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W ON TUE...SOME HIGHER LAPSE RATES
WILL WORK IN ALOFT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...BUT AN
ISOLD TSTM WILL BE PSBL.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PUSH OF THE COLD FNT. WITH THE
19/00Z GFS QUICKER TO CLEAR THE COAST. PREFERRED THE 18/12Z ECMWF
TIMING AS IT WAS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. BEYOND
THAT TIME FNT MAY STALL NEAR THE SRN CWA. THIS COULD KEEP A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND SCHC SHRA AROUND...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. VLY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KLEB/LCON...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC FOR IT
TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL AGAIN SEE FLOW SHIFT ONSHORE AND
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA LATE MON THRU
WED. ISOLD TSTMS LOOK PSBL TUE AHEAD OF COLD FNT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY...WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SWELL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THANKS TO NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 30PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BOTH DAYS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ES
000
FXUS61 KCAR 191041
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
641 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED THIS MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT
READINGS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRID TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAJOR CHALLENGES THIS TERM ARE THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE W/A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON THE SATL WV IMAGERY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS
BRINGING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY W/CLOUDS
HANGING ON. THIS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES KEEPING
THEM DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 W/LIGHT WSW WINDS.
ANOTHER S/WV IS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS AND THE GEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONT FURTHER S INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEFORE STALLING OUT
LATER TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS AND THE GEM FOR THE
SKY GRIDS WHICH SHOW MORE CLOUDS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS THERE ESPECIALLY
FROM THE GFS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE,
DECIDED TO CARRY 20% POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/POPS BELOW 15% FURTHER EAST. BOOSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP A CATEGORY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NICE
SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH AND MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE
COAST LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF BELOW 4 FT RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 WAS
USED FOR THE WINDS OF 10 KTS. FOLLOWED THE DAYCREW/S ASSESSMENT OF
SEAS 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191032
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0630...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY/TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT OBS. ENJOY THE DAY!
PREVIOUSLY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING...WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WARM SPRING DAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT...AND SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE W-SW GRADIENT
FLOW...WHICH WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE ON THE COAST
A BIT...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE WARMER MIDDAY MAXES THERE AS WELL.
INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES WITH SOME
READINGS AROUND 80 IN THE SRN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
500MB REX BLOCKING...WITH RIDGING OVER NERN CONUS...WILL HOLD
THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEAR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A BETTER CHC FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GIVEN HIGHER TDS AND ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. MIGHT
SEE A BIT OF THICKER CI MOVE ACROSS NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 2-4 F
WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE AT LEAST 80...AND SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SRN NH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE MON RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN FROM LOW PRES RIDING UP THE
EAST COAST TO SPREAD S TO N ACROSS THE CWA. SFC RIDGING WILL TRY
AND HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO EXPECT SO DRY AIR TO ERODE
THE LEADING EDGE OF RAFL AND THE PCPN SHIELD TO SLOW DOWN SOME
MON. BY MON NGT RAFL SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE THE FAR NRN MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...AND APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
PUSHING +2 SD ANOMALY FOR THIS AREA...THIS WOULD MEAN SOME HEAVY
RAFL COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PCPN MON NGT AND TUE. AHEAD OF A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W ON TUE...SOME HIGHER LAPSE RATES
WILL WORK IN ALOFT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...BUT AN
ISOLD TSTM WILL BE PSBL.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PUSH OF THE COLD FNT. WITH THE
19/00Z GFS QUICKER TO CLEAR THE COAST. PREFERRED THE 18/12Z ECMWF
TIMING AS IT WAS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. BEYOND
THAT TIME FNT MAY STALL NEAR THE SRN CWA. THIS COULD KEEP A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND SCHC SHRA AROUND...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. VLY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KLEB/LCON...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC FOR IT
TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL AGAIN SEE FLOW SHIFT ONSHORE AND
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA LATE MON THRU
WED. ISOLD TSTMS LOOK PSBL TUE AHEAD OF COLD FNT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY...WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SWELL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THANKS TO NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 30PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BOTH DAYS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KCAR 190846
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
446 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAJOR CHALLENGES THIS TERM ARE THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE W/A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON THE SATL WV IMAGERY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS
BRINGING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY W/CLOUDS
HANGING ON. THIS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES KEEPING
THEM DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES HITTING
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 W/LIGHT WSW WINDS.
ANOTHER S/WV IS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS AND THE GEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONT FURTHER S INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEFORE STALLING OUT
LATER TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS AND THE GEM FOR THE
SKY GRIDS WHICH SHOW MORE CLOUDS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IS THERE ESPECIALLY
FROM THE GFS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE,
DECIDED TO CARRY 20% POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS W/POPS BELOW 15% FURTHER EAST. BOOSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP A CATEGORY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NICE
SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH AND MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MAINE
COAST LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF BELOW 4 FT RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 WAS
USED FOR THE WINDS OF 10 KTS. FOLLOWED THE DAYCREW/S ASSESSMENT OF
SEAS 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 190703
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...WILL BE ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL WARM SPRING DAY. WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...AND SHOULD
SEE SLIGHTLY MORE W-SW GRADIENT FLOW...WHICH WILL DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE ON THE COAST A BIT...ALLOWING FOR A
LITTLE WARMER MIDDAY MAXES THERE AS WELL. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE
WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 80 IN THE
SRN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
500MB REX BLOCKING...WITH RIDGING OVER NERN CONUS...WILL HOLD
THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEAR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A BETTER CHC FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...GIVEN HIGHER TDS AND ANOTHER CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. MIGHT
SEE A BIT OF THICKER CI MOVE ACROSS NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 2-4 F
WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE AT LEAST 80...AND SOME LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SRN NH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE MON RIDGING...SFC AND ALOFT...BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN FROM LOW PRES RIDING UP THE
EAST COAST TO SPREAD S TO N ACROSS THE CWA. SFC RIDGING WILL TRY
AND HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO EXPECT SO DRY AIR TO ERODE
THE LEADING EDGE OF RAFL AND THE PCPN SHIELD TO SLOW DOWN SOME
MON. BY MON NGT RAFL SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE THE FAR NRN MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...AND APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.
PUSHING +2 SD ANOMALY FOR THIS AREA...THIS WOULD MEAN SOME HEAVY
RAFL COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PCPN MON NGT AND TUE. AHEAD OF A
COLD FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W ON TUE...SOME HIGHER LAPSE RATES
WILL WORK IN ALOFT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...BUT AN
ISOLD TSTM WILL BE PSBL.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PUSH OF THE COLD FNT. WITH THE
19/00Z GFS QUICKER TO CLEAR THE COAST. PREFERRED THE 18/12Z ECMWF
TIMING AS IT WAS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. BEYOND
THAT TIME FNT MAY STALL NEAR THE SRN CWA. THIS COULD KEEP A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AND SCHC SHRA AROUND...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FCST DRY
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. VLY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KLEB/LCON...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC FOR IT
TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL AGAIN SEE FLOW SHIFT ONSHORE AND
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA LATE MON THRU
WED. ISOLD TSTMS LOOK PSBL TUE AHEAD OF COLD FNT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY...WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SWELL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THANKS TO NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 30PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BOTH DAYS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 190632
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
232 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
PULLED BACK ON THE POPS AS WELL. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS FINE.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
WINDS CONT QUITE GUSTY ATTM...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SHARPLY TOWARD
SUNSET AND THEN BECOME LGT AND VAR OVRNGT AS LLVL LAPSE RATES
STABILIZE AND WHATS LEFT OF THE WRLY MSL PRES GRAD WEAKENS. FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO A WEAK S/WV OVR CNTRL QB MOVG ESE TOWARD NRN PTNS
OF THE FA IN A FAST WNW FLOW ALF PATTERN. ENOUGH MID LVL MOISTURE
EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING INCREASING CLDNSS TO SPCLY THE NR
HLF OF THE FA OVRNGT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE OVR FAR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SPCLY DURG THE 06-12Z QPF PD WHERE WE SHOW
0.01-0.02 POTENTIAL IN THE ST JOHN VLY AREA. CLD CVR LATER TNGT
SHOULD KEEP OVRNGT LOWS MUCH MILDER COMPARED TO LAST NGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE NW WHERE MANY LOCATIONS HAD BLO FZG OVRNGT LOWS.
MID CLDNSS SHOULD THIN OUT WITH BREAKS ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA DURG THE DAY SAT...BUT NOT GIVE WAY COMPLETELY AS A
WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN APCHS FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
ALG WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK LLVL WARM ADVCN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THAN TDY...BUT CLD CVR WILL DEFINITELY
BE THE UNCERTAIN FACTOR SAT...WITH MORE THAN ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE
ALLOWING FOR HI TEMPS TO WARM FURTHER INTO THE 70S ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...AND LESS SUNSHINE POSSIBLE KEEPING HI TEMPS BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE EAST THIS WEEKEND SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WARMING PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVIDING MODERATELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM WARMER WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
NEAR 80 IN MANY PLACES...AND THE MID 70S OVER THE FAR NORTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
MOSTLY SUNNY...WARM AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARMEST
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE LOW 80S. AN ONSHORE FLOW DOWNEAST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
7OS...AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITIONS OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT IN OVER MAINE FROM A CENTER IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER NRN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE LOWS
CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. BY TUESDAY
MORNING THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 6HRS OUT OF FAZE WITH THE
ECMWF THE FASTER OF THE TWO. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ALONG THE
COAST NORTH TO LONG ISLAND...WITH A FRONT WRAPPED INTO DOWNEAST
MAINE. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF OUR AREA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NRN ME. THE GFS MOVES THE COASTAL LOW NE TO A
POSITION SE OF CAPE COD WITH ITS PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING INTO THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF OUR
AREA...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAIN ACROSS MAINE. BY TUESDAY
EVENING THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NW INTO THE BOSTON AREA...ITS FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH CNTRL MAINE...THE OLD COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NWRN
MAINE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETREATS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW ALONG THE COAST NE TO A POSITION S OF SWRN
NOVA SCOTIA. THE COLD FRONT INTO NWRN ME. AND THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE
GFS MOVES THESE SYSTEMS TROUGH THE AREA BEGINS BUILDING HIGHER
PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SFC REFLECTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD ACROSS PA/VA/NC. THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS THE COLD FRONT IN NRN ME. THE LOW EAST TO SRN NOVA
SCOTIA. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...AND THERE IS A NEW LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME DEVELOPS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OVER PA/VA/NC. SHOWS THE NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS. AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MAINE. THURSDAY
MORNING THE LOW OVR THE GREAT LAKES MVS EAST TO SRN JAMES BAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK HIGH BUILT ACROSS MAINE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NE WELL NORTH OF MAINE. A WEAK HIGH RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE.
FRIDAY MORNING THE GFS MOVES THE LOW MOVES INTO NE QUEBEC...THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF
MOVES THE LOW INTO THE NRN HUDSON BAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. REGION. BY FRIDAY EVENING
THE GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NRN ME. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
FRONT WELL NORTH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS MOVES THE COLD
FRONT TROUGH MAINE INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...AND BUILDS HIGHER
PRESSURE INTO NRN ME. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MAINE.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLUS 25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUST...PLUS 15 PERCENT OVER LAND. SHORT
TERM LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR TEMP/WIND/SKY AND POP. MATCH
GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN. LONG TERM GMOS ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO BETTER
SUPPORT THE SKY CON FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...WITH OW VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MOST TAF SITES
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN.
SHORT TERM: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS SLATED FOR NEAR TERM. WINDS OVER OUR WATERS
FOR THE NEAR TERM WERE DERIVED BY BLENDING THE NAM12...GFS40 AND
GMOS FCST WINDS. FCST WV HTS WERE DERIVED FROM BLENDING WW3 AND
SWAN NAM...WITH ABOUT 50 PERCENT REDUCTION ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF BAYS AND INLETS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
| 
