Latest:
 AFDCAR |  AFDGYX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 290428
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1228 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build down from Canada tonight. A warm
front will lift north of the area later Sunday into Sunday night
bringing showers to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
Latest observations show mid level cloud across the region early
this morning. Radar is showing a few returns entering nw areas.
Hi res guidance shows any showers overnight will be confined to
mainly far northern areas and the St. John Valley. Have cut back
on the fog overnight for downeast and have only mentioned patchy
fog. Tweaked temps/dew points only slightly otherwise no other
changes.

Prev discussion blo...
A cold front lies draped somewhere along the Downeast coast this
afternoon. In addition, a sea breeze is evident on satellite
imagery and in coastal observations. Cherryfield is now down to 74
degrees after topping out at 82 degrees around noon. We`re still
anticipating showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon in the Bangor region down to the coast. Current SB CAPES
are running 1000+ J/kg in far southwestern Penobscot County, as
per the latest mesoanalysis from SPC. This combined with the cold
front and sea breeze should be enough to spark some convection.
Cumulus fields have been increasing over the past couple of hours,
so shouldn`t be too much longer for showers to develop. Once this
occurs, the latest HRRR shows the activity initially drifting
southeast toward the coast, but the precipitation will then lift
back northward along the sea breeze front once it becomes
established. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing small hail and heavy rain. Showers will wind down later
this evening as daytime heating is lost.

For the remainder of tonight into Sunday...Weak high pressure
tries to build in tonight, then the cold front will lift back
north as a warm front late Sunday. Lingering moisture will allow
patchy fog to develop across our central and southern areas,
particularly along the coast. Further north, there could be a
brief clearing this evening, but high clouds will spread in from
the west quickly overnight. Showers will also spread eastward
later tonight out ahead of the warm front as it progresses
northward. These showers will eventually spread over northern
Maine Sunday morning, with the most concentrated activity over
western and central Aroostook County. Further south, particularly
south of Millinocket, the showers will be more spotty. Both the
GFS and the NAM indicate some elevated instability across the
north as well, so wouldn`t be surprised to see a few thunderstorms
during the afternoon. Highs will be cooler than today, especially
in central and Downeast areas where highs will be some 10 to 15
degrees cooler than today. Northern Maine will top out in the
lower to mid 60s, while southern areas will be in the mid 60s to
around 70. Cooler along the immediate coast where they`ll be lucky
to hit 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Initially...shwrs topping the upper ridge from QB prov will cont
ovr msly Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA Sun ngt...then remnant shwrs
from the trop system currently just SE of the Carolinas will
clip the Srn ptn of the FA on Mon...with perhaps enough
instability for aftn TSTMS. With highest trop PWATs from the
Bahamas area in excess of 1.50 inches ovr the S hlf of the FA
attm...we mention heavy downpour wording with tstms Mon aftn...but
this could be pessimistic...spcly if deep trop moisture remains S
of the FA. Overall...6 hrly QPFs do not look to be that high
attm...but bears watching for possible heavier rnfl meso-scale
features spcly on Mon.

Some clrg will be possible spcly ovr the Srn two thirds of FA
Mon ngt as the mid lvl s/wv moves E of the FA...taking trop
moisture with it. Tue will begin msly fair...but a s/wv movg E
from Cntrl Can will bring a chc of shwrs to msly Nrn and Cntrl
ptns of the FA later Tue aftn into erly Tues eve. With very lmtd
CAPES...we mention isold tstms with greater than 25 percent chc
PoPs...with lgt 6 hrly QPF amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Behind the last exiting s/wv from cntrl Can...skies should clr
ovrngt Tue with fair and near seasonal hi temps on Wed and Thu.
The next chc of shwrs will be later Fri into Sat as s/wv trof
system from the midwest begins to move ENE toward the FA. Max
PWATs possibly in excess of 1.50 inches could mean sig rnfl with
this system...but for now given that this is days 6 and 7 in the
outlook...we lmtd max PoPs to the hi chc category for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected for first 6-8 hours tonight before
lowering to MVFR by daybreak. IFR restrictions expected at FVE,
CAR and PQI in -shra during the day tomorrow. At HUL, BGR and BHB
may see low MVFR cigs during the day with brief IFR restrictions
possible, but confidence is low and have not included in valid
terminal forecasts at this time.

SHORT TERM: LIFR and IFR conditions xpctd across the FA Sun ngt in
shwrs and fog...then improving to MVFR by Mon aftn into Mon ngt
with shwrs/tstms diminishing Mon ngt. conditions should improve to
VFR on Tue and cont thru Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed over the waters through
the remainder of the weekend. The main concern for the period will
be reduced visibility in areas of fog into Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM: No high probability pd of SCA winds/seas are xpctd...
xcpt perhaps Mon ngt...where a brief pd of SCA wv hts may occur
with with a below SCA WSW wind fetch. Low vsbys in fog could be
problem Sun ngt into Mon morn as moist tropical air flows nwrd ovr
the cold Gulf of ME waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Farrar/Hastings
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/Farrar/Hastings/VJN
Marine...Duda/Farrar/Hastings/VJN



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 282330
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
730 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push westward across Maine and New Hampshire
tonight as high pressure builds into New Brunswick and Nova
Scotia. An easterly onshore wind will bring much cooler
temperatures on Sunday, although to the west of the mountains it
will be hot and humid again. Warm, moist air moves into the area
again on Monday with showers and thunderstorms expected. A cold
front moves through from the northwest late Tuesday with high
pressure building behind it through late week.

&&

23z update...
Quick update to adjust temps/tds/sky grids based on current
observations. With the loss of heating will also be removing
mention of thunderstorms in the forecast. Have only seen some
widely scattered shower activity across mainly southern areas and
expect this to die out over the next few hours. Still looking for
ocean stratus and areas of fog to develop across the region after
midnight. No other changes planned attm.


Previous discussion...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Any afternoon showers and thunderstorms that develop will diminish
this evening. Winds will shift to the east northeast as high
pressure moves into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and a back door
cold front moves westward across the region. This will bring a
cool, maritime air mass into the low levels this evening. Water
temperatures are in the low to mid 50s and air temperatures within
this air mass will not be much warmer than that. Should see some
low level cloudiness develop as that cold air wedges itself in
below the warm/moist air above it. By morning there could be some
fog and drizzle as well, especially over southwest Maine and
eastern New Hampshire.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Onshore easterly flow will keep cool air wedged in at the surface
across Maine and eastern New Hampshire on Sunday. Near the coast
temperatures may not get out of the upper 50s to low 60s, while
inland areas could rise a little warmer. This cold air will not
make it all the way across the mountains, though, so western New
Hampshire will see another hot and humid day with temperatures in
the 80s. Afternoon showers and storms are more likely to pop up
across New York, Vermont, and western Massachusetts but there
could be a stay shower or storm move through western New
Hampshire.

Remnant showers and thunderstorms associated with a shortwave
trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes will eventually
make their way into New Hampshire and western Maine Sunday night.
This activity should be diminishing as it moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High impact wx: there is a small chance that heavy downpourslate
Sunday night into Monday morning could produce localized flooding.

The hemispheric 500 mb pattern will continue to feature a western
Atlantic ridge, although it will not reach as far poleward as it
is this weekend. After one short wave moves through Monday, will
see a few more during the course of the week, but none of them
are strong enough to break down the ridging, but just temporarily
dampen it. Overall, 850 mb temps through the period will be above
normal, but bouts of onshore flow will help keep sfc temps in the
normal to above range, and not expecting anything quite as warm
as this weekend.

Monday starts off fairly murky and rainy, with fog and shra like
in the morning, as marine layer undercuts the warm air loft. Also
as weak 500 mb trough approaches from the west will see showers
out ahead of the front, with some tropical moisture from TD 2
being drawn northward. Could see a few heavier showers and some
thunderstorms, especially Monday morning. Also RH will be on the
rise during the day as well. May see some brief clearing late in
the warm sector, but a frontal boundary will approach from the
west and could spark off a few sct thunderstorms...especially in
the mountains late. Despite a fair amount of clouds highs Monday
will manage to get into the mid to upper 70s in inland areas, and
to around 70 on the coast. The front moves thru Mon night and
skies will clear but air mass not much different behind it and
will have to wait for second 500mb wave to pull another cold front
thru late Tuesday, but without much in the way of showers, which
would be limited to the mountains. Highs Tuesday will generally be
in the low to mid 80s inland, and mid-upper 70s on the coast.

Sfc high then builds in from north Wed beneath decent ridging
aloft on Wed, and then shifts off to the northeast on Thu. Both
days look fair although Wed will be warmer as flow will be from
the west with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. The onshore flow
will keep the coast close to 70 on Thu, but will warm into the
mid 70s inland. Next chc of rain will be Fri or Saturday as cold
front approaches from the west. GFS/Euro seem to be struggling
with TD 2 during the mid-late week as they keep it lingering near
the Carolinas until late week, and then start to move it E-NE.
This could affect the timing of our rain chances late in the week
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions to start off the night, but an onshore
flow should lead to low clouds developing again tonight along the
coast. Expect IFR conditions from Portsmouth to Rockland, but VFR
should continue for western New Hampshire except for a brief
period of possible valley fog at Lebanon. Low clouds will likely
linger through much of the day Sunday along the coast while
western New Hampshire will be VFR with an outside chance of a
shower or thunderstorm in the evening.

Long Term...IFR or lower Monday morning will improve to VFR from
SW to NE Monday afternoon. After which, VFR is expected through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Easterly flow develops over the waters tonight
behind a back door front. Winds should remain below advisory
levels. Wave heights will be building in the western Gulf of Maine
on that easterly fetch, but at this time are forecast to stay
below 5 feet.

Long Term...Monday will see a surge in SW flow ahead of a cold
front, and may need SCA Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Otherwise, the rest of the week should remain blow SCA levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect cool and moist onshore flow Sunday. It will warm up Monday
and Tuesday but will still be fairly moist. Although showers and
thunderstorms are possible several days during the coming week,
widespread significant rainfall is not expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Cempa
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281931
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push westward across Maine and New Hampshire
tonight as high pressure builds into New Brunswick and Nova
Scotia. An easterly onshore wind will bring much cooler
temperatures on Sunday, although to the west of the mountains it
will be hot and humid again. Warm, moist air moves into the area
again on Monday with showers and thunderstorms expected. A cold
front moves through from the northwest late Tuesday with high
pressure building behind it through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Any afternoon showers and thunderstorms that develop will diminish
this evening. Winds will shift to the east northeast as high
pressure moves into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and a back door
cold front moves westward across the region. This will bring a
cool, maritime air mass into the low levels this evening. Water
temperatures are in the low to mid 50s and air temperatures within
this air mass will not be much warmer than that. Should see some
low level cloudiness develop as that cold air wedges itself in
below the warm/moist air above it. By morning there could be some
fog and drizzle as well, especially over southwest Maine and
eastern New Hampshire.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Onshore easterly flow will keep cool air wedged in at the surface
across Maine and eastern New Hampshire on Sunday. Near the coast
temperatures may not get out of the upper 50s to low 60s, while
inland areas could rise a little warmer. This cold air will not
make it all the way across the mountains, though, so western New
Hampshire will see another hot and humid day with temperatures in
the 80s. Afternoon showers and storms are more likely to pop up
across New York, Vermont, and western Massachusetts but there
could be a stay shower or storm move through western New
Hampshire.

Remnant showers and thunderstorms associated with a shortwave
trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes will eventually
make their way into New Hampshire and western Maine Sunday night.
This activity should be diminishing as it moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High impact wx: there is a small chance that heavy downpourslate
Sunday night into Monday morning could produce localized flooding.

The hemispheric 500 mb pattern will continue to feature a western
Atlantic ridge, although it will not reach as far poleward as it
is this weekend. After one short wave moves through Monday, will
see a few more during the course of the week, but none of them
are strong enough to break down the ridging, but just temporarily
dampen it. Overall, 850 mb temps through the period will be above
normal, but bouts of onshore flow will help keep sfc temps in the
normal to above range, and not expecting anything quite as warm
as this weekend.

Monday starts off fairly murky and rainy, with fog and shra like
in the morning, as marine layer undercuts the warm air loft. Also
as weak 500 mb trough approaches from the west will see showers
out ahead of the front, with some tropical moisture from TD 2
being drawn northward. Could see a few heavier showers and some
thunderstorms, especially Monday morning. Also RH will be on the
rise during the day as well. May see some brief clearing late in
the warm sector, but a frontal boundary will approach from the
west and could spark off a few sct thunderstorms...especially in
the mountains late. Despite a fair amount of clouds highs Monday
will manage to get into the mid to upper 70s in inland areas, and
to around 70 on the coast. The front moves thru Mon night and
skies will clear but air mass not much different behind it and
will have to wait for second 500mb wave to pull another cold front
thru late Tuesday, but without much in the way of showers, which
would be limited to the mountains. Highs Tuesday will generally be
in the low to mid 80s inland, and mid-upper 70s on the coast.

Sfc high then builds in from north Wed beneath decent ridging
aloft on Wed, and then shifts off to the northeast on Thu. Both
days look fair although Wed will be warmer as flow will be from
the west with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. The onshore flow
will keep the coast close to 70 on Thu, but will warm into the
mid 70s inland. Next chc of rain will be Fri or Saturday as cold
front approaches from the west. GFS/Euro seem to be struggling
with TD 2 during the mid-late week as they keep it lingering near
the Carolinas until late week, and then start to move it E-NE.
This could affect the timing of our rain chances late in the week
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions to start off the night, but an onshore
flow should lead to low clouds developing again tonight along the
coast. Expect IFR conditions from Portsmouth to Rockland, but VFR
should continue for western New Hampshire except for a brief
period of possible valley fog at Lebanon. Low clouds will likely
linger through much of the day Sunday along the coast while
western New Hampshire will be VFR with an outside chance of a
shower or thunderstorm in the evening.

Long Term...IFR or lower Monday morning will improve to VFR from
SW to NE Monday afternoon. After which, VFR is expected through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Easterly flow develops over the waters tonight
behind a back door front. Winds should remain below advisory
levels. Wave heights will be building in the western Gulf of Maine
on that easterly fetch, but at this time are forecast to stay
below 5 feet.

Long Term...Monday will see a surge in SW flow ahead of a cold
front, and may need SCA Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Otherwise, the rest of the week should remain blow SCA levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect cool and moist onshore flow Sunday. It will warm up Monday
and Tuesday but will still be fairly moist. Although showers and
thunderstorms are possible several days during the coming week,
widespread significant rainfall is not expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


LONG TERM...Cempa




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281704
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
104 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region today with high pressure
building down from Canada tonight. A warm front will lift north
of the area on Sunday into Sunday night bringing showers to the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM update...No significant changes were made to this
afternoon`s forecast. Cumulus is popping up in those areas that
have seen sunshine. The hi-res models still indicating showers to
develop in a couple of hours, mainly south and west of Bangor. The
model is also indicating we`ll see a sea breeze which will help
fire some convection. Have adjusted pops down just a bit in
coastal Hancock County since any shower or thunderstorm activity
will migrate back northward once the sea-breeze gets going. Made
slight adjustments to temps to match current trends, including
dropping highs a bit in the far north where stratocumulus deck has
limited most of the sunshine. No other changes needed.

Previous Discussion...
Main challenge this term will be convection potential across the
downeast  and coast this afternoon and fog.

A weak cold front will continue to slide s today and should be
across the coastal waters this evening. Convection that fired up
earlier has moved out of the downeast area and weakened. Areas of
fog are plaguing the region this morning w/the lowest vsbys across
the northern areas. Will keep an eye on the fog this morning as a
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Fog will lift and burn off later
this morning w/some sunshine returning. Clouds will hang on longer
across the northern tier thus keeping maxes down some. Across the
central and downeast areas, sunshine will allow temps to rise
quickly and readings are expected to shoot well into the 80s all
the way to the coast as the wind becomes offshore. Convective temp
will be easily hit. Dewpoints in this region will be in the mid
50s to around 60. Sounding data showed enough moisture available
from 850 to around 700 mbs to allow for TCU development. Decent
llvl convergence as shown by the NAM and HRRR along the boundary
and atmosphere destabilizes. SB/MU CAPES of 1000 joules are shown
in the downeast region. WBZ is about 9500 ft and pwats of 1.5+
inches. Definitely enough for tstms. Showalter index drops to -1
or so. It does not look like organized convection but some storms
could be strong enough to produce hail around 1/2 inch w/heavy
rainfall. Decided to keep 20-30% POPs in place. The NAM looks to
be overdone w/its dewpoints therefore overloading the llvls but it
has the right idea.

For tonight, convection should wind down this evening w/loss of
heating and lack of significant forcing. Areas of fog expected
once again especially across the downeast and coast as the winds
turn to the ene. High pres to the n will nose down into the region
allowing for some clearing especially across the northern areas.
This will allow for a cooldown. Min temps will be tricky as northern
areas will cool back into the upper 40s while central and downeast
see mid 50s. A warm front is forecast to lift northward overnight
with some showers breaking out ahead of the front by early Sunday
morning back across the western areas. Left out any mention of
tstms as the airmass looks to be stable especially in the llvls.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front will move northeast across the region during Sunday
as an upper level ridge builds across the region. Expect some
showers with the passage of the warm front, mainly across
northern areas, especially the St. John Valley where went with
low end categorical pops (75-80%). Otherwise expect mainly cloudy
skies across the region. The combination of cloud cover and
southerly winds will hold temperatures in the mid to upper 60s,
but only around 60 along the immediate coast. Sunday night will
be mainly cloudy with the chance for showers, especially across
northern areas. Monday will see the chance for showers and
thunderstorms in advance of a short wave approaching from the
west. Have added the mention of heavy rainfall for Monday
corresponding to likely or higher pops, mainly across central and
downeast areas. Precipitable water values around 1.5 inches and
dew points in the lower 60s will support the potential for heavy
downpours. Have also added the mention of areas of fog for coastal
downeast with high dewpoint air and south winds off the gulf of
Maine. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to diminish by later
Monday afternoon with the passage of the short wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night will see partly to mostly cloudy skies with only the
chance for a shower. Tuesday will see a secondary cold
front crossing the region. Expect the chance for showers and
afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across northern and central
areas. Will also have to watch for the possibility of a few
stronger storms with the passage of the short wave and secondary
cold front Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up as dry
days with temperatures a bit above seasonal levels for this time
of year. Another system will bring the next chance for rain by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR mainly across the northern TAF sites this
morning w/fog and low clouds. KBGR and KBHB will flirt w/periods
of IFR this morning and fog. Conditions are forecast to improve to
VFR later this morning into the afternoon. The challenge will
along the coast near KBHB as conditions could hang on for IFR
longer. For tonight, expecting fog development later in the
evening which could bring conditions down to IFR/MVFR.

SHORT TERM: Expect vfr/mvfr conditions on Sunday in showers
across the northern terminals and mvfr cigs kbgr/kbhb. Expect
widespread mvfr in cigs and sct showers across the northern
terminals and widespread ifr/lifr in showers, areas of fog, and
low cigs kbgr/kbhb. Monday will see a continuation of widespread
mvfr conditions in showers and thunderstorms along with ifr in
areas of fog along the coast.

Mainly vfr on Tuesday along with sct showers and thunderstorms mainly
north. Vfr conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Expecting seas and winds to stay below SCA this term
w/winds around 10 kts and seas 2-3 ft. Fog will be nuisance for
the mariners with navigation this morning and again tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below sca levels through mid
week. Areas of fog will reduce visibilty to less than 1 nm at
times Sunday night through Monday in areas of fog.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hastings/Hewitt
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Hastings/Hewitt/Duda
Marine...Hastings/Hewitt/Duda




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272302
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
702 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer air will continue moving into the region through the first
part of the weekend...with the hottest temperatures expected for
Saturday. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms may pop up in
the afternoon. A cold front will push in from the northeast
Saturday night...and likely stall near the Connecticut valley and
southwest New Hampshire on Sunday...with onshore flow and cooler
temperatures across Maine and part of New Hampshire. Another front
approaches from the west Monday and makes for a mainly cloudy and
humid day with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
will move in for the remainder of the week yielding dry and
seasonable weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
645 pm update: Visible satellite loops through the afternoon showed
widespread fog just offshore and along the immediate coastal areas
of the midcoast moving slowly west. With no mention of fog in
forecast...have made a significant update to forecast to include
this widespread fog over the waters and the coastal and inland
midcoast areas tonight as well as spreading the fog west into
southwest coastal Maine by late this evening. the question for the
remainder of the night will be how far inland the stratus and fog
move. temperatures were adjusted based on latest obs.

previous discussion:
Clouds have finally burned off over much of the coastal plain,
but visible satellite imagery shows clouds lingering just
offshore. The diurnal seabreeze circulation will push these
clouds onshore over the next few hours. Meanwhile a warm and
moist air mass to the west of the mountains continues to bubble
up with cumulus clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms over
New York, Vermont, and far western New Hampshire. This activity
may affect parts of southern and western New Hampshire at some
point this evening but it is not expected to be widespread.
Temperatures should drop into the 60s across most of New
Hampshire tonight, while 50s will be common across Maine where
the cooler maritime air will be felt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure moving toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will
send a frontal boundary through New Hampshire and Maine on
Saturday. Ahead of the front, winds will be out of the
west/northwest. This will allow the building heat and humidity to
our west to spill into the rest of New Hampshire and much of
western Maine. There is a fair amount of difference between the
NAM/GFS on low level temperatures tomorrow with the NAM about 3C
warmer than the GFS. As a result, the MOS numbers are pretty far
apart with the MET going for a high of 97 at Concord while the
MAV says only 88. Tend to favor the NAM in this case as it seems
to have a better handle on this air mass so far. Record high at
Concord is 94 and this appears to be in jeopardy. Dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s will allow heat index values to rise to 95 degrees
or higher in parts of southern/urban New Hampshire. Further to the
east along the coast a sea breeze will keep things a little
cooler. With the synoptic winds expected tomorrow, the sea breeze
will be most likely east of Portland.

With the heat and humidity building, there is some indication that
afternoon instability will be enough to generate showers and
thunderstorms. NAM is more aggressive with this, indicating CAPE
values above 1200 while the GFS is generally less than half that.
There is no obvious forcing mechanism for thunderstorms Saturday,
but the terrain and frontal boundary/sea breeze may be enough to
force some storms to fire during the afternoon. This activity
should diminish during the evening.

The cold front finishes its push southward and then westward
across the area Saturday night. A cool/moist onshore flow will be
in place across the area and cannot rule out some low clouds and
drizzle particularly over southeast New Hampshire and southwest
Maine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High impact weather: A few thunderstorms late Sunday night and
Monday could produce torrential downpours, and there is a low
risk for flash flooding.

The overall 500 mb pattern starts out summer-like, with strong
western Atlantic ridging in place. Although the ridge starts off
extending poleward to Newfoundland, several waves in the flow do
knock the ridge gradually back toward the equator. The temps will
moderate somewhat but will remain near to above normal thru next
week. A chance for showers come mid-late week as a cold front
moves thru, but there is no sign for any significant rainfall in
the extended forecast.

Sunday will start cool with onshore flow persisting behind the
back door front. Sunday looks to be mainly dry, but could be
fairly cloudy with the onshore flow, although some decent drying
above the marine layer could lead to some breaks of sunshine thru
the day. The best chance for showers or thunderstorms will be in
the north and western zones where the frontal boundary will be
sitting on sunday. In fact, CT valley region will likely be on the
warm and humid side, while elsewhere temps remain cooler, mainly
in the low-mid 60s coast to mid 70s in inland areas on the coastal
plain and the foothills.

Sunday night will see the marine layer start to erode a bit as
warmer pushes in aloft. Clouds will roll in and the threat of
showers will increase overnight...as will the humidity from SW to
NE. A cold front approaches from the west on Monday, and this will
set off showers and storms again in the warm moist air ahead of
the front. Even along the coast where marine layer will hold on,
should be enough elevated instability that we cannot rule out a
thunderstorm here on Monday. The big question is how much, if any,
moisture gets picked up from current fledgling tropical system in
the Atlantic. Models are in fair agreement that the system moves
west too the Carolina coast by Saturday night, but models vary
after that. Still could see some of that tropical air mass get
shunted northward ahead of the cold front and bring some heavy
rain in convective cells late Sunday into Monday, but confidence
remains low at this time.

Air mass behind the so-called cold front that passes Monday night
will remain warm and humid and will need to wait for second surge
of cooler air late Tue and Tue night. So Tue will be on the warm
and somewhat humid side, although with a fair amount of sun. This
secondary cold front moves thru with little fanfare...and may
produce a few scattered showers in the mountains on Tuesday. After
that temps drop back to near to a little above normal thru the
end of the week before another cold front approaches on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions start out VFR this afternoon for most
areas, though some low clouds are lurking just offshore. These
clouds will likely surge into coastal areas over the next few
hours, particularly from Portland eastward. This could bring
conditions to IFR or LIFR. Winds become southwesterly by morning
which should shift the focus for IFR clouds to eastern parts of
the area. This should burn off by mid morning with all areas
becoming VFR Saturday. Afternoon showers and storms are possible
especially over southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine though
the likelihood of affecting any particular TAF site is too low to
mention at this point.

Long Term...Sunday will start with some IFR, but will see some
improvement to MVFR or VFR during the day. A return to IFR
expected Sunday night lingering into Monday, with scattered
thunderstorms on Monday. VFR returns for Tue/Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Southwesterly winds become northerly then
northeasterly behind a cold front Saturday evening. High pressure
slides east into the Atlantic on Sunday with winds becoming
southeasterly. Winds through the period should stay below 25 KT
with wave heights fairly low as well.

Long Term...Winds seas will remain blow SCA conditions Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid conditions are expected Saturday. A cold front
brings cooler weather Sunday with a moist onshore flow over Maine
and eastern New Hampshire. Although showers and storms will be
possible Saturday and again early next week, no widespread
significant rainfall is forecast.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 272216
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
616 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area this evening. A weak cold
front will cross the region on Saturday. This front will lift north
of the area as a warm front Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
616 pm update...Convection moving out of southern Quebec has been
weakening as it moves into western Maine. A couple of
thunderstorms have impacted parts of northern Somerset County over
the past couple of hours. The convection has fallen apart as it
moves east into northern Piscataquis County. Expect the last of
any thunderstorm activity to end within the next hour or two, with
only isolated showers the remainder of the evening. Otherwise,
expect a lot of low stratus tonight with areas of fog. Only minor
tweaks based on the latest radar returns, lightning data, and
observations.

previous discussion...
SFc low pressure sitting in cntrl Quebec with assoc cdfnt draped
sw back into srn Ontario wl mv east ovrngt. Skies hv clrd up into
nrn zones this aftn but stratus rmns locked ovr most of the region
as of 19z. Significant low-lvl moisture wl lkly rmn locked under
subsidence inversion tonight and where skies do clr, fog wl
develop.

Frontal bndry wl slide thru and bisect CWA by 12Z in the morning.
Hv isold-lochc pops acrs far nw this evng but fropa wl mostly be
dry as it drops south. May see isold thunder along the coast drg
the aftn as front conts to slide south.

As far as temps go, expect min temps to drop into the l/m-50s
areawide tonight. Maxes on Sat wl only climb into the lwr 70s acrs
the north bhnd front while Downeast locations wl rise into the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of high pressure will be across the north Sunday
evening. Clouds will increase as moisture, cascading over the top of
the ridge, begins to approach ahead of a warm front. This will be
followed by a mostly cloudy day on Sunday. Low pressure lifting west
of the area Sunday will continue to draw moisture north along the
warm front bringing rain across the north with just a chance for
some showers Downeast. Showers will likely continue overnight Sunday
night, especially over central and northern areas. By Monday, the
warm front will be north of the area and warm and very humid air
will be across the region as low pressure tracks well to the
north. Lots of moisture in the region will keep skies mostly
cloudy and a few showers may still be around. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible, mainly during the afternoon. Sounding
profiles show some weak shear but also weak capes around 100 j/kg
with limited heating. The humid air moving in over the cooler
waters will likely result in some fog along the coast on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showery weather will continue through Tuesday as a couple of
shortwaves will slide across the region. Ridging builds in
thereafter, leading to a dry spell Wednesday and Thursday. Low
pressure will cross to our north on Friday while dragging its
attendant cold front across northern New England. There`s some
disagreement between the long-range models as to the strength and
timing of this front, but at the least expect we`ll see some
showers as it goes through. Temperatures will be warmest earlier
in the period; Tuesday`s highs will top out in the 80s across the
Central Highlands down through interior Downeast, while elsewhere
should see mid to upper 70s. Highs will mainly be in the 70s
thereafter, though the coast will remain cooler Thursday and
Friday owing to onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Restrictions will remain MVFR and possibly IFR
overnight. Saturated low levels may result in low stratus and fog
at all terminals tonight before improving to VFR by mid-morning.

SHORT TERM: VFR to MVFR conditions are expected Saturday night.
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected on Sunday then IFR to LIFR
conditions in low clouds and some fog are likely Sunday night in
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA through tomorrow.
Areas of fog will develop over the waters tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA saturday
night through Sunday night. Winds may reach SCA in gusts over the
offshore waters on Monday. Very humid air over the waters may
result in areas of dense fog on Monday. IFR conditions will give
way to VFR through the day Tuesday. VFR will prevail Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Farrar
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...CB/Farrar/Bloomer
Marine...CB/Farrar/Bloomer




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities