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000
FXUS61 KGYX 042151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
551 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER LATER
IN THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION... MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 042151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
551 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER LATER
IN THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION... MARINE



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 041922
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC TONIGHT...
THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL
BELIEVE THAT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DRY
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MAINE AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN REALLY
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS. SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE, ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK
SHEAR MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RUN OF THE MILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE COAST TO
AROUND 80 FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN EVE SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE RETREAT OF ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR
WRN PTNS OF OUR FA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF
MOVES WELL E OF THE REGION THRU THE ERN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...
CLRG SKIES ARE XPCTD OVR THE FA OVRNGT SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL LOW TEMPS AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

WITH SFC HI PRES ANCHORING OVR THE NRN MID ATLC STATES AND
ADJACENT PTNS OF THE ATLC OCEAN ON MON AS A MDTLY STRONG UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR NRN NEW ENG...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND STRONGLY REACHING HIGHS MON AFTN SIG
ABV 80 DEG F OVR ALL XCPT IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST PTNS OF THE
FA...THE WARMEST SINCE LATE MAY.

MON EVE WILL BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
AND A LGT BREEZE. TUE WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...THEN CLDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN BEGIN TO APCH...BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AND LATE AFTN SCT SHWRS/
TSTMS TO MSLY THE NW THIRD OF THE FA. THE ARRIVAL TMG OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW WAS BASED ON SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH WE
DID NOTE THAT THE 12Z DTMNSTC GFS WAS SLOWER THAN ITS PREV RUNS.
HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS THE N AND W WITH
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS WITH GRADIENT SSW WINDS ALLOWING MARINE COOLED AIR
TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE...
THEREFORE QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT
NEAR STRONGER STORMS.

A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.


SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED OVR OUR WATERS. WVS BEGIN AT 3
TO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT WITH LEFT OVR SWELL THEN
DIMINISH MON AND MON EVE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOME TO 10 TO 20
KT AND 2 TO 4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY TUE AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SW
WIND...BUT STILL BLO MIN SCA CRITERIA BASED ON LATEST WIND AND WV
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041922
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC TONIGHT...
THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL
BELIEVE THAT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DRY
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MAINE AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN REALLY
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS. SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE, ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK
SHEAR MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RUN OF THE MILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE COAST TO
AROUND 80 FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN EVE SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE RETREAT OF ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR
WRN PTNS OF OUR FA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF
MOVES WELL E OF THE REGION THRU THE ERN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...
CLRG SKIES ARE XPCTD OVR THE FA OVRNGT SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL LOW TEMPS AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

WITH SFC HI PRES ANCHORING OVR THE NRN MID ATLC STATES AND
ADJACENT PTNS OF THE ATLC OCEAN ON MON AS A MDTLY STRONG UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR NRN NEW ENG...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND STRONGLY REACHING HIGHS MON AFTN SIG
ABV 80 DEG F OVR ALL XCPT IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST PTNS OF THE
FA...THE WARMEST SINCE LATE MAY.

MON EVE WILL BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
AND A LGT BREEZE. TUE WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...THEN CLDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN BEGIN TO APCH...BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AND LATE AFTN SCT SHWRS/
TSTMS TO MSLY THE NW THIRD OF THE FA. THE ARRIVAL TMG OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW WAS BASED ON SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH WE
DID NOTE THAT THE 12Z DTMNSTC GFS WAS SLOWER THAN ITS PREV RUNS.
HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS THE N AND W WITH
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS WITH GRADIENT SSW WINDS ALLOWING MARINE COOLED AIR
TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE...
THEREFORE QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT
NEAR STRONGER STORMS.

A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.


SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED OVR OUR WATERS. WVS BEGIN AT 3
TO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT WITH LEFT OVR SWELL THEN
DIMINISH MON AND MON EVE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOME TO 10 TO 20
KT AND 2 TO 4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY TUE AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SW
WIND...BUT STILL BLO MIN SCA CRITERIA BASED ON LATEST WIND AND WV
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041922
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC TONIGHT...
THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL
BELIEVE THAT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DRY
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MAINE AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN REALLY
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS. SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE, ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK
SHEAR MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RUN OF THE MILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE COAST TO
AROUND 80 FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN EVE SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE RETREAT OF ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR
WRN PTNS OF OUR FA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF
MOVES WELL E OF THE REGION THRU THE ERN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...
CLRG SKIES ARE XPCTD OVR THE FA OVRNGT SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL LOW TEMPS AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

WITH SFC HI PRES ANCHORING OVR THE NRN MID ATLC STATES AND
ADJACENT PTNS OF THE ATLC OCEAN ON MON AS A MDTLY STRONG UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR NRN NEW ENG...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND STRONGLY REACHING HIGHS MON AFTN SIG
ABV 80 DEG F OVR ALL XCPT IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST PTNS OF THE
FA...THE WARMEST SINCE LATE MAY.

MON EVE WILL BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
AND A LGT BREEZE. TUE WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...THEN CLDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN BEGIN TO APCH...BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AND LATE AFTN SCT SHWRS/
TSTMS TO MSLY THE NW THIRD OF THE FA. THE ARRIVAL TMG OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW WAS BASED ON SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH WE
DID NOTE THAT THE 12Z DTMNSTC GFS WAS SLOWER THAN ITS PREV RUNS.
HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS THE N AND W WITH
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS WITH GRADIENT SSW WINDS ALLOWING MARINE COOLED AIR
TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE...
THEREFORE QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT
NEAR STRONGER STORMS.

A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.


SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED OVR OUR WATERS. WVS BEGIN AT 3
TO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT WITH LEFT OVR SWELL THEN
DIMINISH MON AND MON EVE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOME TO 10 TO 20
KT AND 2 TO 4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY TUE AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SW
WIND...BUT STILL BLO MIN SCA CRITERIA BASED ON LATEST WIND AND WV
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041922
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC TONIGHT...
THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL
BELIEVE THAT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DRY
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MAINE AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN REALLY
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS. SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO REACH INTO
THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE, ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK
SHEAR MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RUN OF THE MILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE COAST TO
AROUND 80 FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUN EVE SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE RETREAT OF ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR
WRN PTNS OF OUR FA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF
MOVES WELL E OF THE REGION THRU THE ERN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...
CLRG SKIES ARE XPCTD OVR THE FA OVRNGT SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL LOW TEMPS AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

WITH SFC HI PRES ANCHORING OVR THE NRN MID ATLC STATES AND
ADJACENT PTNS OF THE ATLC OCEAN ON MON AS A MDTLY STRONG UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR NRN NEW ENG...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND STRONGLY REACHING HIGHS MON AFTN SIG
ABV 80 DEG F OVR ALL XCPT IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST PTNS OF THE
FA...THE WARMEST SINCE LATE MAY.

MON EVE WILL BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
AND A LGT BREEZE. TUE WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...THEN CLDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN BEGIN TO APCH...BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AND LATE AFTN SCT SHWRS/
TSTMS TO MSLY THE NW THIRD OF THE FA. THE ARRIVAL TMG OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW WAS BASED ON SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH WE
DID NOTE THAT THE 12Z DTMNSTC GFS WAS SLOWER THAN ITS PREV RUNS.
HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS THE N AND W WITH
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS WITH GRADIENT SSW WINDS ALLOWING MARINE COOLED AIR
TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE...
THEREFORE QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT
NEAR STRONGER STORMS.

A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.


SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED OVR OUR WATERS. WVS BEGIN AT 3
TO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT WITH LEFT OVR SWELL THEN
DIMINISH MON AND MON EVE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOME TO 10 TO 20
KT AND 2 TO 4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY TUE AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SW
WIND...BUT STILL BLO MIN SCA CRITERIA BASED ON LATEST WIND AND WV
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041902
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

CEMPA/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041902
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

CEMPA/HANES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041701
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
SOME RAIN, BUT IT`S DRY ENOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. IN
FACT, YOU HAVE TO GO ALL THE WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT TO
FIND ANY REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
SOMEONE GOT A FEW SPRINKLES, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADIAN FIRES
HAVE KEPT THE SUN A BIT MORE AT BAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THIS HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE RISE, SO HAVE
DROPPED EXPECTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS,
AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE
RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND
80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041701
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
SOME RAIN, BUT IT`S DRY ENOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. IN
FACT, YOU HAVE TO GO ALL THE WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT TO
FIND ANY REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
SOMEONE GOT A FEW SPRINKLES, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADIAN FIRES
HAVE KEPT THE SUN A BIT MORE AT BAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THIS HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE RISE, SO HAVE
DROPPED EXPECTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS,
AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE
RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND
80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041701
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
SOME RAIN, BUT IT`S DRY ENOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. IN
FACT, YOU HAVE TO GO ALL THE WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT TO
FIND ANY REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
SOMEONE GOT A FEW SPRINKLES, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADIAN FIRES
HAVE KEPT THE SUN A BIT MORE AT BAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THIS HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE RISE, SO HAVE
DROPPED EXPECTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS,
AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE
RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND
80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041701
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
SOME RAIN, BUT IT`S DRY ENOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. IN
FACT, YOU HAVE TO GO ALL THE WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT TO
FIND ANY REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
SOMEONE GOT A FEW SPRINKLES, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADIAN FIRES
HAVE KEPT THE SUN A BIT MORE AT BAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THIS HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE RISE, SO HAVE
DROPPED EXPECTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS,
AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE
RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND
80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041701
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...WE CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
SOME RAIN, BUT IT`S DRY ENOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. IN
FACT, YOU HAVE TO GO ALL THE WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT TO
FIND ANY REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
SOMEONE GOT A FEW SPRINKLES, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADIAN FIRES
HAVE KEPT THE SUN A BIT MORE AT BAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THIS HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE RISE, SO HAVE
DROPPED EXPECTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS,
AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE
RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND
80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1205 PM...RADAR ECHOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SHOWERS THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON IN SW NH...WITH SOME
SPKLS JUST TO THE N AND E OF THERE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...AT
LEAST RAP/HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z NAM12...SHOW THAT TREND WELL THRU
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER 18-19Z. ALSO
LOWERED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE CLOUD
COVER.

920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1205 PM...RADAR ECHOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SHOWERS THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON IN SW NH...WITH SOME
SPKLS JUST TO THE N AND E OF THERE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...AT
LEAST RAP/HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z NAM12...SHOW THAT TREND WELL THRU
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER 18-19Z. ALSO
LOWERED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE CLOUD
COVER.

920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1205 PM...RADAR ECHOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SHOWERS THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON IN SW NH...WITH SOME
SPKLS JUST TO THE N AND E OF THERE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...AT
LEAST RAP/HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z NAM12...SHOW THAT TREND WELL THRU
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER 18-19Z. ALSO
LOWERED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE CLOUD
COVER.

920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1205 PM...RADAR ECHOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SHOWERS THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON IN SW NH...WITH SOME
SPKLS JUST TO THE N AND E OF THERE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...AT
LEAST RAP/HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z NAM12...SHOW THAT TREND WELL THRU
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER 18-19Z. ALSO
LOWERED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE CLOUD
COVER.

920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 041423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. WE`RE SEEING LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. THE HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE DO SHOW SOME STRONGER RETURNS
ACROSS DOWNEAST/BANGOR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY
MINIMAL ACTUAL RAINFALL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
VERY DRY, SO EXPECT THAT ANY RAIN DROPS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE THEY
HIT THE GROUND. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND
THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING
OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES
SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. WE`RE SEEING LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. THE HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE DO SHOW SOME STRONGER RETURNS
ACROSS DOWNEAST/BANGOR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY
MINIMAL ACTUAL RAINFALL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
VERY DRY, SO EXPECT THAT ANY RAIN DROPS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE THEY
HIT THE GROUND. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND
THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING
OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES
SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 041423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. WE`RE SEEING LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. THE HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE DO SHOW SOME STRONGER RETURNS
ACROSS DOWNEAST/BANGOR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY
MINIMAL ACTUAL RAINFALL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
VERY DRY, SO EXPECT THAT ANY RAIN DROPS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE THEY
HIT THE GROUND. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND
THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING
OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES
SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. WE`RE SEEING LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. THE HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE DO SHOW SOME STRONGER RETURNS
ACROSS DOWNEAST/BANGOR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY
MINIMAL ACTUAL RAINFALL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
VERY DRY, SO EXPECT THAT ANY RAIN DROPS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE THEY
HIT THE GROUND. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND
THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING
OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES
SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 041047
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041038
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
638 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO POPULATE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND INTERPOLATE TO EXISTING FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA. TECHNICALLY, IT`S CLOUDY OUT, BUT
FORECASTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BECAUSE OF THE TRANSPARENCY
OF THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL SMOKE IS
NOTED THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS FROM FIRES IN WESTERN CANADA. SMOKE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE IMPACTING SURFACE VISIBILITIES OR LEADING TO
ANY SMELL, SO LEFT SMOKE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND
THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING
OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES
SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 041038
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
638 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO POPULATE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND INTERPOLATE TO EXISTING FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA. TECHNICALLY, IT`S CLOUDY OUT, BUT
FORECASTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BECAUSE OF THE TRANSPARENCY
OF THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL SMOKE IS
NOTED THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS FROM FIRES IN WESTERN CANADA. SMOKE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE IMPACTING SURFACE VISIBILITIES OR LEADING TO
ANY SMELL, SO LEFT SMOKE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND
THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING
OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES
SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 041038
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
638 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO POPULATE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND INTERPOLATE TO EXISTING FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA. TECHNICALLY, IT`S CLOUDY OUT, BUT
FORECASTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BECAUSE OF THE TRANSPARENCY
OF THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL SMOKE IS
NOTED THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS FROM FIRES IN WESTERN CANADA. SMOKE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE IMPACTING SURFACE VISIBILITIES OR LEADING TO
ANY SMELL, SO LEFT SMOKE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND
THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING
OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES
SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING
STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD
BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON
RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING
STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD
BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON
RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING
STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD
BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON
RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND THIS EVENING
STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING OUT OF CLOUD
BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES SHOW UP ON
RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040704
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040704
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040500
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN POPULATING OBSERVED GRIDS AND
INCREASED SKY COVER JUST A TOUCH WITH HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION BELOW...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/FOISY/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040500
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN POPULATING OBSERVED GRIDS AND
INCREASED SKY COVER JUST A TOUCH WITH HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION BELOW...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/FOISY/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040500
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN POPULATING OBSERVED GRIDS AND
INCREASED SKY COVER JUST A TOUCH WITH HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION BELOW...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/FOISY/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1230 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET...AS
WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1230 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET...AS
WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1230 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET...AS
WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1230 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET...AS
WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040242
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040242
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM UPDATE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
921 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT GRIDS. TEMPS DROPPED RAPIDLY BTWN 00Z
AND 01Z AND LOOK TO BE ON TRACK TO DROP TWD FCST MINS. STILL
EXPECTING M40S IN THE NORTH WOODS TO NR 50 ALONG THE COAST, IN
LINE WITH CURRENT DWPT VALUES. WINDS HV DECOUPLED WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 040121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
921 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT GRIDS. TEMPS DROPPED RAPIDLY BTWN 00Z
AND 01Z AND LOOK TO BE ON TRACK TO DROP TWD FCST MINS. STILL
EXPECTING M40S IN THE NORTH WOODS TO NR 50 ALONG THE COAST, IN
LINE WITH CURRENT DWPT VALUES. WINDS HV DECOUPLED WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 040121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
921 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT GRIDS. TEMPS DROPPED RAPIDLY BTWN 00Z
AND 01Z AND LOOK TO BE ON TRACK TO DROP TWD FCST MINS. STILL
EXPECTING M40S IN THE NORTH WOODS TO NR 50 ALONG THE COAST, IN
LINE WITH CURRENT DWPT VALUES. WINDS HV DECOUPLED WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 040121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
921 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT GRIDS. TEMPS DROPPED RAPIDLY BTWN 00Z
AND 01Z AND LOOK TO BE ON TRACK TO DROP TWD FCST MINS. STILL
EXPECTING M40S IN THE NORTH WOODS TO NR 50 ALONG THE COAST, IN
LINE WITH CURRENT DWPT VALUES. WINDS HV DECOUPLED WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 032224
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 032224
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 032224
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 032224
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
625 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 032214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...
SKIES CLRNG ACRS CWA THIS EVNG UNDER BUILDING H5 RIDGE. MAY SEE A
FEW CLDS SKIRT THRU THE CROWN OF MAINE OVRNGT AS HIGH-LVL MOISTURE
STREAMS OUT AHD OF DIGGING UPR TROF IN WRN GREAT LKS. EITHER WAY
NOT EXPECTING IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS AS NORTH WOODS LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE M40S BY DAYBREAK. WL CONTINUE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR MINS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 032214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...
SKIES CLRNG ACRS CWA THIS EVNG UNDER BUILDING H5 RIDGE. MAY SEE A
FEW CLDS SKIRT THRU THE CROWN OF MAINE OVRNGT AS HIGH-LVL MOISTURE
STREAMS OUT AHD OF DIGGING UPR TROF IN WRN GREAT LKS. EITHER WAY
NOT EXPECTING IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS AS NORTH WOODS LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE M40S BY DAYBREAK. WL CONTINUE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR MINS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE IS A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM OF SYSTEMS. WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THE MOUNTAINS
OF ME/NH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

REGARDING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH KEEPING A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NH AND ME WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ALL
CONSIDERATION...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TIMING FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS. EVEN THE WETTER AND FURTHEST NORTH GFS MODEL
HAS ANY AND ALL SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS WERE ALL
CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO A BLENDED
SOLUTION SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRENGTHENING OF THE 500 MB WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHRA OR A TSRA MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT
COULD COULD SEE SOME POP UP ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLYS
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SWIGS THRU AND NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START TO DRY AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT. MON INTO MOST OF TUE LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING MOVES THRU
WITH RH RISING ON MONDAY...AND TDS CREEPING INTO THE LOW 60S BY
TUE /AND MAYBE MID-UPPR 60S BY MID WEEK/. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE IN NH. BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WED AND
WED NIGHT AS 500 MB PASSES N AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE
REGION. THE 12Z EURO WANTS HANG UP THE FRONT TO OUR S AS A WAVE
TRACKS ALONG IT...WHICH WOULD MEAN CHC OF SHOWERS ON THU
TOO...BUT THIS IS TOO FINE A POINT TO HOOK ONTO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON LOWERING CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN THRU TUE...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE
SUN AND MON NIGHT.  WED COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN THRU WED. WILL
SEE A SURGE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...WHICH
WILL BRINGS WIND TO NEAR SCA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 031853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 031853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 031853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 031853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 031853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 031853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 031853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 031853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL WILL GIVE
WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

THE FOURTH OF JULY IS LOOKING TO BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL
BE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN PRODUCING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FCST AREA. RAINFALL VALUES COULD REACH .10" IN SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. RETURN SWRLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTH...RESULTING IN VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTATION INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT,
WITH THE GFS BUILDING A HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND THE ECMWF MOVING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SCTD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE
COASTAL ZONES WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE WAVES TO BE JUST UNDER SC
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF
WINDS IN THE VERY LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STRONG
TEMP INVERSION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS THEN WHAT IS FCSTD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 031624
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1224 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO OUR NORTH WERE
AFFECTING NORTHERN MOST MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM
PQI AND POINTS NORTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
STILL LOOKS OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS
WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50
TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING FOR A NICE JULY 4 HOLIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOME MODELS HAVE BROUGHT RAIN
FURTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
SOUTH OF US EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
BEARS WATCHING THOUGH TO MAKE SURE MODELS DON`T TREND ANY FURTHER
NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT LOOKS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THOUGH. HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUED WARM
WITH AROUND 80 DOWNEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 70S NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMEST DAY OF THE WARM STRETCH APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
DOWNEAST AND TUESDAY NORTH/WEST. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 80S. A TOUCH COOLER DOWNEAST TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, BUT STILL IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COOL GULF OF MAINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY, AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE DRIER RATHER THAN
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, BUT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR/IFR COMES
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 031624
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1224 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO OUR NORTH WERE
AFFECTING NORTHERN MOST MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM
PQI AND POINTS NORTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
STILL LOOKS OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS
WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50
TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING FOR A NICE JULY 4 HOLIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOME MODELS HAVE BROUGHT RAIN
FURTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
SOUTH OF US EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
BEARS WATCHING THOUGH TO MAKE SURE MODELS DON`T TREND ANY FURTHER
NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT LOOKS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THOUGH. HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUED WARM
WITH AROUND 80 DOWNEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 70S NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMEST DAY OF THE WARM STRETCH APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
DOWNEAST AND TUESDAY NORTH/WEST. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 80S. A TOUCH COOLER DOWNEAST TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, BUT STILL IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COOL GULF OF MAINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY, AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE DRIER RATHER THAN
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, BUT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR/IFR COMES
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 031408
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1008 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS OTHERWISE A NICE AFTERNOON
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS
WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50
TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING FOR A NICE JULY 4 HOLIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOME MODELS HAVE BROUGHT RAIN
FURTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
SOUTH OF US EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
BEARS WATCHING THOUGH TO MAKE SURE MODELS DON`T TREND ANY FURTHER
NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT LOOKS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THOUGH. HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUED WARM
WITH AROUND 80 DOWNEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 70S NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMEST DAY OF THE WARM STRETCH APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
DOWNEAST AND TUESDAY NORTH/WEST. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 80S. A TOUCH COOLER DOWNEAST TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, BUT STILL IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COOL GULF OF MAINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY, AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE DRIER RATHER THAN
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, BUT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR/IFR COMES
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 031408
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1008 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS OTHERWISE A NICE AFTERNOON
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS
WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50
TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING FOR A NICE JULY 4 HOLIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOME MODELS HAVE BROUGHT RAIN
FURTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
SOUTH OF US EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
BEARS WATCHING THOUGH TO MAKE SURE MODELS DON`T TREND ANY FURTHER
NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT LOOKS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THOUGH. HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUED WARM
WITH AROUND 80 DOWNEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 70S NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMEST DAY OF THE WARM STRETCH APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
DOWNEAST AND TUESDAY NORTH/WEST. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 80S. A TOUCH COOLER DOWNEAST TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, BUT STILL IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COOL GULF OF MAINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY, AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE DRIER RATHER THAN
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, BUT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR/IFR COMES
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/FOISY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBILE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBILE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG...VISIBILE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS IT NICELY. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031130
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031130
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031130
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 031130
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
730AM UPDATE...
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 031052
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
652 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROF ARE NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS
WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50
TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING FOR A NICE JULY 4 HOLIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOME MODELS HAVE BROUGHT RAIN
FURTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
SOUTH OF US EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
BEARS WATCHING THOUGH TO MAKE SURE MODELS DON`T TREND ANY FURTHER
NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT LOOKS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THOUGH. HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUED WARM
WITH AROUND 80 DOWNEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 70S NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMEST DAY OF THE WARM STRETCH APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
DOWNEAST AND TUESDAY NORTH/WEST. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 80S. A TOUCH COOLER DOWNEAST TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, BUT STILL IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COOL GULF OF MAINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY, AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE DRIER RATHER THAN
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, BUT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR/IFR COMES
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 031052
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
652 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROF ARE NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS
WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50
TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING FOR A NICE JULY 4 HOLIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOME MODELS HAVE BROUGHT RAIN
FURTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
SOUTH OF US EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
BEARS WATCHING THOUGH TO MAKE SURE MODELS DON`T TREND ANY FURTHER
NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT LOOKS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THOUGH. HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUED WARM
WITH AROUND 80 DOWNEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 70S NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMEST DAY OF THE WARM STRETCH APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
DOWNEAST AND TUESDAY NORTH/WEST. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 80S. A TOUCH COOLER DOWNEAST TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, BUT STILL IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COOL GULF OF MAINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY, AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE DRIER RATHER THAN
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, BUT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR/IFR COMES
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030835
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS
WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50
TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING FOR A NICE JULY 4 HOLIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOME MODELS HAVE BROUGHT RAIN
FURTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
SOUTH OF US EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
BEARS WATCHING THOUGH TO MAKE SURE MODELS DON`T TREND ANY FURTHER
NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT LOOKS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THOUGH. HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUED WARM
WITH AROUND 80 DOWNEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 70S NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMEST DAY OF THE WARM STRETCH APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
DOWNEAST AND TUESDAY NORTH/WEST. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 80S. A TOUCH COOLER DOWNEAST TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, BUT STILL IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COOL GULF OF MAINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY, AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE DRIER RATHER THAN
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, BUT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR/IFR COMES
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030835
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS
WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50
TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING FOR A NICE JULY 4 HOLIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOME MODELS HAVE BROUGHT RAIN
FURTHER NORTH THAN BEFORE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
SOUTH OF US EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
BEARS WATCHING THOUGH TO MAKE SURE MODELS DON`T TREND ANY FURTHER
NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT LOOKS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THOUGH. HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUED WARM
WITH AROUND 80 DOWNEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 70S NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMEST DAY OF THE WARM STRETCH APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
DOWNEAST AND TUESDAY NORTH/WEST. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 80S. A TOUCH COOLER DOWNEAST TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, BUT STILL IN THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COOL GULF OF MAINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY, AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE DRIER RATHER THAN
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, BUT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR/IFR COMES
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXITING TO THE EAST. BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS WARMER
AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS WHILE SOME LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR TONIGHT AS THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME 40S IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

INDEPENDENCE DAY IS A UNIQUE HOLIDAY IN THAT IT IS ONE IN WHICH
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TIED TO THE HOLIDAY.
THE FOURTH OF JULY OCCURS ON A SATURDAY ONLY ONCE EVERY 5 OR 6
YEARS. WITH THE HOLIDAY OCCURRING ON A SATURDAY THIS YEAR... IT
CAN BE ASSUMED THAT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO MANY PEOPLE.

A HANDFUL OF DAYS A YEAR THE FORECAST MODELS LEAD FORECASTERS IN
ONE FORECAST DIRECTION FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND THEN SUDDENLY SHIFT
WITHIN THE FINAL DAY OR TWO TO BRING A SURPRISE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN... IT CAN BE A
PARTICULAR PAIN FOR FORECASTERS WHO PRIDE THEMSELVES ON TRYING TO
PRODUCE A HIGH QUALITY AND CONSISTENT FORECAST THAT USERS CAN RELY
ON FROM DAY TO DAY.

UNFORTUNATELY... MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SUDDENLY SHIFTED JUST IN
TIME FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE TIMING OF THIS COULD NOT BE MUCH
WORSE. WHILE FOR MANY DAYS FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY CALLED FOR
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY... THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND... LEADING TO A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. THIS DRY
FORECAST HAS NOW COME INTO QUESTION. EACH OF THE MAJOR MODELS NOW
FORECAST RAIN FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE.

THE NAM IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED
DIRECTLY WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW... AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO COMPLETELY RUIN MOST OUTDOOR
EVENTS. THE GFS USES THIS MID LEVEL LIFT TO NOW DEVELOP A MORE
ROBUST SURFACE LOW AND TRACK IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD THEN DEVELOP
WOULD SPREAD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS AND UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS WOULD BE A
LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN BUT STILL MAYBE NOT A COMPLETE WASH OUT. FOR
ITS PART THE ECMWF GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE AND LESS OVERALL QPF. THE CMC ALSO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BUT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE LINE.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? THERE IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST. WHEN THE MAV
AND MET BOTH SUGGEST 70 TO 80 POP IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO ARGUE
WITH. BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUCH A
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
BE BETTER TO RAISE THE POP A LITTLE BIT AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS NEW SOLUTION BEFORE JUMPING FULLY
ON BOARD WITH IT. FOR NOW... WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LIKELY RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY... THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT CAN HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT
INDEPENDENCE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN AT SOME POINT. BUT IT IS WORTH COMING BACK TO CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THIS FORECAST CAN
SEEMINGLY ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXPANDS
TO ENVELOPE THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH EACH
DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH DAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY THE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS
THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK BUT NONE ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISTURB
THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030541
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
141 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY;
SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS
INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
NATURE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
MARINE...NORCROSS/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030541
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
141 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY;
SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS
INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
NATURE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
MARINE...NORCROSS/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 030541
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
141 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY;
SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS
INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
NATURE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
MARINE...NORCROSS/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030541
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
141 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY;
SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS
INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
NATURE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
MARINE...NORCROSS/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030132
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
932 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER
RIGHT THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS
ON TRACK. EXPECT THE PLEASANT EVENING TO CONTINUE.

645 PM UDPATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERNMOST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND COOLING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK
500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THRU WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF GRADIENT FLOW
GOING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR...AND PERHAPS MOVE SOME SCT CIRRUS
THRU OVERNIGHT. THE SHELTERED SPOTS SHOULD DECOUPLE...AND SOME
VLY FOG IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
PBL...WILL BE MORE PATCHY. IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MINS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST...TO THE MID 40S IN THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE THE 500 MB RIDGING BEGIN TO SHIFT IN ON FRIDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC RIDGE TO BUILD AND WEAKEN GRADIENT FLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU...MAY A TOUCH
WARMER. ON THE COAST WILL SEE A LIGHT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL KEEP MAXES MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THU....INLAND
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MTNS...TO AROUND 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COOL AND CLEAR...AND JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
N...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
ACCOMPANIED BY SUMMER CONDITIONS AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...FINALLY! WE ARE ALSO STAYING IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND MAINLY BE AFFECTED BY CANADIAN AIR MASSES, SO HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES THE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...ALL THE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE STAYING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH ONLY VERY MINOR TROUGHS TO QUIETLY MOVE THROUGH
EVERY FEW DAYS BUT MOSTLY TO GO UNNOTICED. FORECAST H85
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZES NO
CONSIDERABLE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED, THUS THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY TROUGH WORTH MENTIONING IS THE ONE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY THAT MAY CAUSE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SUMMER
CONDITIONS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU FRI NIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF VLY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHIE/KLEB.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH BUILDS JUST N OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE
AFTER A FEW 4-5 FOOTERS SUBSIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FRI AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SHORE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030132
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
932 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER
RIGHT THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS
ON TRACK. EXPECT THE PLEASANT EVENING TO CONTINUE.

645 PM UDPATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERNMOST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND COOLING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK
500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THRU WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF GRADIENT FLOW
GOING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR...AND PERHAPS MOVE SOME SCT CIRRUS
THRU OVERNIGHT. THE SHELTERED SPOTS SHOULD DECOUPLE...AND SOME
VLY FOG IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
PBL...WILL BE MORE PATCHY. IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MINS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST...TO THE MID 40S IN THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE THE 500 MB RIDGING BEGIN TO SHIFT IN ON FRIDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC RIDGE TO BUILD AND WEAKEN GRADIENT FLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU...MAY A TOUCH
WARMER. ON THE COAST WILL SEE A LIGHT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL KEEP MAXES MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THU....INLAND
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MTNS...TO AROUND 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COOL AND CLEAR...AND JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
N...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
ACCOMPANIED BY SUMMER CONDITIONS AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...FINALLY! WE ARE ALSO STAYING IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND MAINLY BE AFFECTED BY CANADIAN AIR MASSES, SO HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES THE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...ALL THE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE STAYING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH ONLY VERY MINOR TROUGHS TO QUIETLY MOVE THROUGH
EVERY FEW DAYS BUT MOSTLY TO GO UNNOTICED. FORECAST H85
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZES NO
CONSIDERABLE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED, THUS THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY TROUGH WORTH MENTIONING IS THE ONE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY THAT MAY CAUSE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SUMMER
CONDITIONS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU FRI NIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF VLY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHIE/KLEB.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH BUILDS JUST N OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE
AFTER A FEW 4-5 FOOTERS SUBSIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FRI AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SHORE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...A MID/UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PICTURES NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER IN QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SW LABRADOR OVERNIGHT WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE PICTURES FROM NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY INTO CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH SOME CLOUDS. THERE WAS EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE
EARLIER IN THE EVENING THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. STRATOCU WILL
MOVE BACK INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF
CARIBOU. A JET STREAK IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND
IS CLIPPING PARTS OF THE DOWNEAST REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME
CIRRUS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A 500 MB TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THERE COULD EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY;
SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS
INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS VCNTY KFVE
FROM AROUND 08-12Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/DUDA/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...A MID/UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PICTURES NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER IN QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SW LABRADOR OVERNIGHT WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE PICTURES FROM NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY INTO CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH SOME CLOUDS. THERE WAS EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE
EARLIER IN THE EVENING THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. STRATOCU WILL
MOVE BACK INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF
CARIBOU. A JET STREAK IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND
IS CLIPPING PARTS OF THE DOWNEAST REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME
CIRRUS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A 500 MB TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THERE COULD EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY;
SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS
INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS VCNTY KFVE
FROM AROUND 08-12Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/DUDA/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 030115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...A MID/UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PICTURES NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER IN QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SW LABRADOR OVERNIGHT WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE PICTURES FROM NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY INTO CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH SOME CLOUDS. THERE WAS EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE
EARLIER IN THE EVENING THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. STRATOCU WILL
MOVE BACK INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF
CARIBOU. A JET STREAK IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND
IS CLIPPING PARTS OF THE DOWNEAST REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME
CIRRUS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A 500 MB TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THERE COULD EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY;
SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS
INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS VCNTY KFVE
FROM AROUND 08-12Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/DUDA/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 030115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...A MID/UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PICTURES NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER IN QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SW LABRADOR OVERNIGHT WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE PICTURES FROM NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY INTO CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH SOME CLOUDS. THERE WAS EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE
EARLIER IN THE EVENING THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. STRATOCU WILL
MOVE BACK INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF
CARIBOU. A JET STREAK IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND
IS CLIPPING PARTS OF THE DOWNEAST REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOME
CIRRUS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A 500 MB TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THERE COULD EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY;
SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS
INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS VCNTY KFVE
FROM AROUND 08-12Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/DUDA/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 022243
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER
RIGHT THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UDPATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERNMOST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND COOLING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK
500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THRU WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF GRADIENT FLOW
GOING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR...AND PERHAPS MOVE SOME SCT CIRRUS
THRU OVERNIGHT. THE SHELTERED SPOTS SHOULD DECOUPLE...AND SOME
VLY FOG IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
PBL...WILL BE MORE PATCHY. IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MINS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST...TO THE MID 40S IN THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE THE 500 MB RIDGING BEGIN TO SHIFT IN ON FRIDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC RIDGE TO BUILD AND WEAKEN GRADIENT FLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU...MAY A TOUCH
WARMER. ON THE COAST WILL SEE A LIGHT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL KEEP MAXES MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THU....INLAND
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MTNS...TO AROUND 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COOL AND CLEAR...AND JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
N...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
ACCOMPANIED BY SUMMER CONDITIONS AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...FINALLY! WE ARE ALSO STAYING IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND MAINLY BE AFFECTED BY CANADIAN AIR MASSES, SO HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES THE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...ALL THE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE STAYING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH ONLY VERY MINOR TROUGHS TO QUIETLY MOVE THROUGH
EVERY FEW DAYS BUT MOSTLY TO GO UNNOTICED. FORECAST H85
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZES NO
CONSIDERABLE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED, THUS THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY TROUGH WORTH MENTIONING IS THE ONE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY THAT MAY CAUSE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SUMMER
CONDITIONS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU FRI NIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF VLY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHIE/KLEB.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH BUILDS JUST N OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE.
EXPECT SOME ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FRI
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SHORE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 022243
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER
RIGHT THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UDPATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERNMOST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND COOLING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK
500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THRU WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF GRADIENT FLOW
GOING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR...AND PERHAPS MOVE SOME SCT CIRRUS
THRU OVERNIGHT. THE SHELTERED SPOTS SHOULD DECOUPLE...AND SOME
VLY FOG IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
PBL...WILL BE MORE PATCHY. IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MINS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST...TO THE MID 40S IN THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE THE 500 MB RIDGING BEGIN TO SHIFT IN ON FRIDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC RIDGE TO BUILD AND WEAKEN GRADIENT FLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU...MAY A TOUCH
WARMER. ON THE COAST WILL SEE A LIGHT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL KEEP MAXES MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THU....INLAND
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MTNS...TO AROUND 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COOL AND CLEAR...AND JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
N...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
ACCOMPANIED BY SUMMER CONDITIONS AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...FINALLY! WE ARE ALSO STAYING IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND MAINLY BE AFFECTED BY CANADIAN AIR MASSES, SO HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES THE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...ALL THE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE STAYING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH ONLY VERY MINOR TROUGHS TO QUIETLY MOVE THROUGH
EVERY FEW DAYS BUT MOSTLY TO GO UNNOTICED. FORECAST H85
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD AND OTHER THAN SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZES NO
CONSIDERABLE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED, THUS THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY TROUGH WORTH MENTIONING IS THE ONE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY THAT MAY CAUSE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SUMMER
CONDITIONS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU FRI NIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF VLY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHIE/KLEB.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH BUILDS JUST N OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE.
EXPECT SOME ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FRI
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SHORE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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