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000
FXUS61 KGYX 231502
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1102 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z. SOME MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN SHOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND INDUCES
HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



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000
FXUS61 KCAR 231313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND SHOULD START AFFECTING OUT WRN ZONES
AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW STORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF OUR CWA COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND SHOULD START AFFECTING OUT WRN ZONES
AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW STORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF OUR CWA COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 231115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
715 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI






000
FXUS61 KCAR 231115
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
715 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 230953 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR LATEST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE TO
MATCH POP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230953 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR LATEST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE TO
MATCH POP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230953 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR LATEST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE TO
MATCH POP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230953 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR LATEST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE TO
MATCH POP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO
SOME LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME.
AS FAR AS THE LATTER GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO
PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 230732
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT FOG AND
HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME. AS FAR AS THE LATTER
GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR
NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CAPRIOLA
AVIATION...CAPRIOLA/LEGRO
MARINE...CAPRIOLA/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 230732
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID AIR
IN THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND FOG. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN ZONES...IS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT FOG AND
HAZE ACROSS MOIST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST ME. AS FAR AS THE LATTER
GOES...GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS TO PENOBSCOT BAY EWD FOR
NOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. DEEP SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA AGAIN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB AOA 90 FOR SRN NH AND INTERIOR ME. A
LARGE RESERVOIR OF MOIST AIR LAYS TO THE SW...UP THRU H9 AND
H8...SO DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
NOTE ON IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ARE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH REGIONAL
ASOS ARE ESTIMATING TO BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8.5 KFT. IF ACCAS IS
INDEED FORMING ALREADY...AIR MASS SHOULD BE PLENTY UNSTABLE ALOFT
FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST
SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO THE FNT ITSELF...SO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE
THRU THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD
AT H8 AND H7 IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. KMWN IS ALREADY
SUSTAINED WLY AT 40 KTS...SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...HODOGRAPHS WILL
FAVOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH OCNL SUPERCELLS. WITH FLOW ALSO
PARALLELING THE FORCING ALONG THE FNT...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
GROW INTO A LINEAR FASHION INTO THE EVENING. THAT PARALLEL FLOW
WILL ALSO MEAN TRAINING STORMS...SO HEAVY RNFL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR...AND SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...WITH PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LVL
WILL PRECLUDE THIS FROM BEING A GREATER THREAT. VEERED WINDS
WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL ALSO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED
TORNADO THREAT. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS...AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
LAKE ERIE. SREF AND SPC SSEO GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO AREAS MORE
FAVORED FOR STRONG STORMS. ONE WOULD BE CENTRAL ME...WHERE GREATER
SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. THE OTHER BEING SRN NH...WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING GOING
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA AND NOT GET TOO CUTE ATTM.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON
TIMING...WITH AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION EXPECTED. WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO OF NOON TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN VT AND
ADJACENT SRN CANADA. THIS WILL AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
18Z. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE COAST BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE EVENING...THOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR A
TIME AND MAY OFFSET A RAPID DECLINE IN TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NW
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SLOW THE FROPA NEAR THE COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA INTO THU.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX TO START THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WX.

THE SLOW MOVING SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM CONT TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TO OUR S FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS FAIR WX DOMINATED WITH
MODIFYING TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE E NE SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY
PUSHES A WARM FNT N TOWARD THE FCST AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING WARM HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIR AND SHRA/TSTMS TO THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM
STALLS AND CUTOFFS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NGT AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E ON TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT CONTINUING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WITH SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
GENERALLY SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY COASTAL FOG/STRATUS
DOWNEAST...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO KRKD FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.
APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA AND TSTMS AROUND
NOON IN THE N...AND CLOSER TO 00Z ALONG THE COAST. THESE TSTMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ISOLD GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FNT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES POSSIBLY PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS LATE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CAPRIOLA
AVIATION...CAPRIOLA/LEGRO
MARINE...CAPRIOLA/LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230655
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE FORECAST
TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE.
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230655
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE FORECAST
TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE.
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KCAR 230358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1158 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOWS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 60S. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO REST OF OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 230358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1158 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOWS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 60S. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO REST OF OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KGYX 230203 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1003 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WHICH ARE
DROPPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL IN THE 70S IN A LOST OF
SPOTS WITH SW WINDS AROUND 5-8 MPH. THESE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
SOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT READINGS TO DROP QUICKER WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMATION AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE.

&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230203 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1003 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WHICH ARE
DROPPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL IN THE 70S IN A LOST OF
SPOTS WITH SW WINDS AROUND 5-8 MPH. THESE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
SOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT READINGS TO DROP QUICKER WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMATION AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE.

&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KCAR 230133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
933 PM UPDATE...WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO LABRADOR WED PM. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT EXTENDS TO
YARMOUTH THAT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS
EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS AND WIND GRIDS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
933 PM UPDATE...WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO LABRADOR WED PM. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT EXTENDS TO
YARMOUTH THAT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS
EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS AND WIND GRIDS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
933 PM UPDATE...WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO LABRADOR WED PM. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT EXTENDS TO
YARMOUTH THAT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS
EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS AND WIND GRIDS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 230133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
933 PM UPDATE...WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO LABRADOR WED PM. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT EXTENDS TO
YARMOUTH THAT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS
EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS AND WIND GRIDS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KGYX 222341 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 222341 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 222341 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 222341 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA
WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS
SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST...
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST.
THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KCAR 222219
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
619 PM UPDATE...THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM TONIGHT.
WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT MAY
GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY
CVR GRIDS INTO THE EVE HOURS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND
SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 222219
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
619 PM UPDATE...THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM TONIGHT.
WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT MAY
GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY
CVR GRIDS INTO THE EVE HOURS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND
SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 222219
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
619 PM UPDATE...THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM TONIGHT.
WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT MAY
GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY
CVR GRIDS INTO THE EVE HOURS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND
SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 222219
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
619 PM UPDATE...THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM TONIGHT.
WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT MAY
GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY
CVR GRIDS INTO THE EVE HOURS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND
SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 222030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN...AND
PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER













000
FXUS61 KCAR 222030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN...AND
PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KCAR 222009
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
409 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN...AND
PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER










000
FXUS61 KCAR 222009
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
409 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN...AND
PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND THEN MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KGYX 221838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AN HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAKOUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY
FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL SEE A
RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER









000
FXUS61 KGYX 221838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AN HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAKOUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY
FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL SEE A
RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER









000
FXUS61 KGYX 221838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AN HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAKOUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY
FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL SEE A
RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER









000
FXUS61 KGYX 221838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM AN HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90
DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND
APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAKOUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST
STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING
OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY
MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY
FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL SEE A
RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL
GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY
WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU
THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT
THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER









000
FXUS61 KGYX 221557
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1157 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1155 AM...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS IS A MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO
INGEST THE LATEST MESONET VALUES INTO THE 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

905 AM...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS THAT REFLECT THE MESONET. HAV A GUD DAY.

PREV DISC...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221557
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1157 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1155 AM...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS IS A MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO
INGEST THE LATEST MESONET VALUES INTO THE 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

905 AM...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS THAT REFLECT THE MESONET. HAV A GUD DAY.

PREV DISC...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221557
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1157 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1155 AM...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS IS A MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO
INGEST THE LATEST MESONET VALUES INTO THE 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

905 AM...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS THAT REFLECT THE MESONET. HAV A GUD DAY.

PREV DISC...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221557
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1157 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1155 AM...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS IS A MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO
INGEST THE LATEST MESONET VALUES INTO THE 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

905 AM...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS THAT REFLECT THE MESONET. HAV A GUD DAY.

PREV DISC...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1133 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: ONLY VERY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CVR GRIDS INTO THE AFTN HRS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND
SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHGS MADE THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QLCS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI








000
FXUS61 KCAR 221533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1133 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: ONLY VERY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CVR GRIDS INTO THE AFTN HRS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND
SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHGS MADE THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QLCS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KCAR 221319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
919 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: HRLY FCST TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE MODIFIED FOR
A MORE REALISTIC RATE OF RISE CURVE INTO THE AFTN HRS BY UTILIZING
OBSVD MORN LOWS...8-9 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTN
FCST HI TEMPS. OTHERWISE...MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO CLD
CVR GOING INTO THE AFTN BASED ON RECENT TRENDS FROM SAT IMAGERY.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QLCS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
919 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: HRLY FCST TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE MODIFIED FOR
A MORE REALISTIC RATE OF RISE CURVE INTO THE AFTN HRS BY UTILIZING
OBSVD MORN LOWS...8-9 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTN
FCST HI TEMPS. OTHERWISE...MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO CLD
CVR GOING INTO THE AFTN BASED ON RECENT TRENDS FROM SAT IMAGERY.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QLCS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
919 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: HRLY FCST TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE MODIFIED FOR
A MORE REALISTIC RATE OF RISE CURVE INTO THE AFTN HRS BY UTILIZING
OBSVD MORN LOWS...8-9 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTN
FCST HI TEMPS. OTHERWISE...MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO CLD
CVR GOING INTO THE AFTN BASED ON RECENT TRENDS FROM SAT IMAGERY.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QLCS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
919 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: HRLY FCST TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE MODIFIED FOR
A MORE REALISTIC RATE OF RISE CURVE INTO THE AFTN HRS BY UTILIZING
OBSVD MORN LOWS...8-9 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTN
FCST HI TEMPS. OTHERWISE...MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO CLD
CVR GOING INTO THE AFTN BASED ON RECENT TRENDS FROM SAT IMAGERY.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QLCS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221308
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
908 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS THAT REFLECT THE MESONET. HAV A GUD DAY.

PREV DISC...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221308
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
908 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS THAT REFLECT THE MESONET. HAV A GUD DAY.

PREV DISC...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221308
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
908 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS THAT REFLECT THE MESONET. HAV A GUD DAY.

PREV DISC...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221308
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
908 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS THAT REFLECT THE MESONET. HAV A GUD DAY.

PREV DISC...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221048
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
648 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM SUMMER DAY COMING UP!

645 AM UPDATE: REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRIDS AND ADJUSTED
THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO FIT THE LATEST CONDITIONS. STRATUS IS
STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND PULL BACK FROM THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QCLS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221048
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
648 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM SUMMER DAY COMING UP!

645 AM UPDATE: REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRIDS AND ADJUSTED
THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO FIT THE LATEST CONDITIONS. STRATUS IS
STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND PULL BACK FROM THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QCLS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI






000
FXUS61 KGYX 221044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 221044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 221044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 221044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS.

PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND
AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS
WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR
BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE
LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT
SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 220730
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND AND UPPER
LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS WILL BRING
IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR BRINGING
IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE LIMITED
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE LOOKING
AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT SHOULD STAY
OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWLEY
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...CEMPA/HAWLEY
MARINE...CEMPA/HAWLEY









000
FXUS61 KGYX 220730
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND AND UPPER
LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS WILL BRING
IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR BRINGING
IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE LIMITED
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE LOOKING
AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT SHOULD STAY
OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWLEY
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...CEMPA/HAWLEY
MARINE...CEMPA/HAWLEY









000
FXUS61 KGYX 220730
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND AND UPPER
LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS WILL BRING
IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR BRINGING
IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE LIMITED
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE LOOKING
AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT SHOULD STAY
OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWLEY
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...CEMPA/HAWLEY
MARINE...CEMPA/HAWLEY









000
FXUS61 KGYX 220730
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND AND UPPER
LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS WILL BRING
IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR BRINGING
IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE LIMITED
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE LOOKING
AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT SHOULD STAY
OFFSHORE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD
BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST.

WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW
SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/
WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM
THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING
MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH
AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER.

WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF
INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS
500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND
PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID
LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY
PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY
EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID
WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT
KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL
HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE
A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON
WED.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWLEY
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...CEMPA/HAWLEY
MARINE...CEMPA/HAWLEY









000
FXUS61 KCAR 220727
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM SUMMER DAY COMING UP!

SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS SEEN ON THE LATEST GOES E SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG HANGING ALONG ROCKLAND AND OFFSHORE
ATTM. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE STRATUS AND FOG TO CREEP INTO THE
COASTAL REGIONS THIS MORNING AND HANG ON INTO MID MORNING.
THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE HRRR IS TOO FAST.
THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON KEEPING THE STRATUS AND FOG BEYOND 12Z.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING.

OTHER THAN THAT, HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QCLS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI








000
FXUS61 KCAR 220727
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM SUMMER DAY COMING UP!

SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS SEEN ON THE LATEST GOES E SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG HANGING ALONG ROCKLAND AND OFFSHORE
ATTM. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE STRATUS AND FOG TO CREEP INTO THE
COASTAL REGIONS THIS MORNING AND HANG ON INTO MID MORNING.
THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE HRRR IS TOO FAST.
THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON KEEPING THE STRATUS AND FOG BEYOND 12Z.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING.

OTHER THAN THAT, HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
W/TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE COLUMN RIGHT UP THROUGH 500MBS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BLYR FOR A VERY WARM DAY W/A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY. WE ARE TALKING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A SW BREEZE KICKS IN.
THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER AS THE SSW BREEZE WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER, BUT STILL ABLE TO HIT AROUND 80F. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART WILL STAY CLEAR W/SOME STRATUS AND FOG FORMING AGAIN AND
PUSHING A BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BANGOR AND COASTAL REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 90 DCM HEIGHT FALLS IN A 15 HOUR TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A QCLS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE THE
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO START
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY STRONGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/THE THREAT FOR IFR FOR KBHB THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR BOTH KBGR AND KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS A
SSW FLOW BRINGING LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY WED AFTN AND EVE AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MAINE.  VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. DECIDED TO MENTION A SOUTHERLY SWELL
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OBS THIS MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT CREEPING TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE WAVE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SWAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT. BASED ON THIS,
DECIDED TO CUT BACK THE HEIGHTS BY A FOOT INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT STILL WELL BELOW 20
KT.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KCAR 220502
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
102 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...BROUGHT STRATUS THAT IS RESIDING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE IN ALONG THE HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM HAD THIS HANDLED OK BUT A BIT QUICK. THEREFORE,
BACKED THE TIMING BACK BY ABOUT 2 HRS. BROUGHT HR LY TEMPERATURES
IN LINE W/THE CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.
OFFSHORE STRATUS MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KBHB VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 220502
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
102 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...BROUGHT STRATUS THAT IS RESIDING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE IN ALONG THE HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM HAD THIS HANDLED OK BUT A BIT QUICK. THEREFORE,
BACKED THE TIMING BACK BY ABOUT 2 HRS. BROUGHT HR LY TEMPERATURES
IN LINE W/THE CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.
OFFSHORE STRATUS MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KBHB VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KGYX 220417
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM...UPDATED T/TD OVERNIGHT....MINS COME OUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA. ALSO
UPDATED SKY A BIT...MAINLY TO REFLECT THE OFFSHORE FOG/STRATUS
BANK...AND HOW IT MAY BRUSH THE COAST BY DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC:
A QUIET DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WAS NEAR 80F INLAND BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THERE WERE SOME BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON GOES
IMAGERY AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER THERE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING. THERE WAS SOME MARINE STRATUS SOUTH OF CASCO
BAY ON GOES IMAGERY. THAT MAY WORK ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A BLEND
OF MET/MAV WAS USED FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
OR NIGHT.

THETA-E RICH AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FLOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SO-SO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND TAP SOME
REMNANT EML AIR AND FUNNEL IT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT THE THREAT MAY MOVE TO THE COAST IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER FASHION DURING THE EVENING. PWATS LOOK TO RISE CLOSE TO 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ALONG QUITE WELL...ANY TRAINING COULD POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY DEVELOP SOME ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WET
WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS WITH BRIEF LCL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR LOCALLY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR THU THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN FOG AND
HAZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 220417
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM...UPDATED T/TD OVERNIGHT....MINS COME OUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA. ALSO
UPDATED SKY A BIT...MAINLY TO REFLECT THE OFFSHORE FOG/STRATUS
BANK...AND HOW IT MAY BRUSH THE COAST BY DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC:
A QUIET DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WAS NEAR 80F INLAND BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THERE WERE SOME BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON GOES
IMAGERY AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER THERE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING. THERE WAS SOME MARINE STRATUS SOUTH OF CASCO
BAY ON GOES IMAGERY. THAT MAY WORK ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A BLEND
OF MET/MAV WAS USED FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
OR NIGHT.

THETA-E RICH AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FLOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SO-SO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND TAP SOME
REMNANT EML AIR AND FUNNEL IT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT THE THREAT MAY MOVE TO THE COAST IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER FASHION DURING THE EVENING. PWATS LOOK TO RISE CLOSE TO 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ALONG QUITE WELL...ANY TRAINING COULD POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY DEVELOP SOME ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WET
WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS WITH BRIEF LCL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR LOCALLY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR THU THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN FOG AND
HAZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 220130
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE SKY GRIDS. SATELLITE
PICTURES INDICATE AN AREA OF STRATUS ABOUT 60 MILES OFFSHORE THAT
IS CREEPING TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.
OFFSHORE STRATUS MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KBHB VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 220114
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
914 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY
GRIDS OTRW NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
A QUIET DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WAS NEAR 80F INLAND BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THERE WERE SOME BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON GOES
IMAGERY AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER THERE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING. THERE WAS SOME MARINE STRATUS SOUTH OF CASCO
BAY ON GOES IMAGERY. THAT MAY WORK ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A BLEND
OF MET/MAV WAS USED FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
OR NIGHT.

THETA-E RICH AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FLOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SO-SO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND TAP SOME
REMNANT EML AIR AND FUNNEL IT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT THE THREAT MAY MOVE TO THE COAST IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER FASHION DURING THE EVENING. PWATS LOOK TO RISE CLOSE TO 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ALONG QUITE WELL...ANY TRAINING COULD POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY DEVELOP SOME ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WET
WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS WITH BRIEF LCL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR LOCALLY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR THU THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN FOG AND
HAZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 220114
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
914 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY
GRIDS OTRW NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
A QUIET DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WAS NEAR 80F INLAND BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THERE WERE SOME BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON GOES
IMAGERY AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER THERE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING. THERE WAS SOME MARINE STRATUS SOUTH OF CASCO
BAY ON GOES IMAGERY. THAT MAY WORK ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A BLEND
OF MET/MAV WAS USED FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
OR NIGHT.

THETA-E RICH AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FLOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SO-SO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND TAP SOME
REMNANT EML AIR AND FUNNEL IT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT THE THREAT MAY MOVE TO THE COAST IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER FASHION DURING THE EVENING. PWATS LOOK TO RISE CLOSE TO 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ALONG QUITE WELL...ANY TRAINING COULD POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY DEVELOP SOME ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WET
WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS WITH BRIEF LCL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR LOCALLY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR THU THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN FOG AND
HAZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCAR 212225
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
625 PM UPDATE...A QUIET EVENING. THE CU ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IS ALSO RAPIDLY
WANING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES...BUT ALL IN ALL THE
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 212225
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
625 PM UPDATE...A QUIET EVENING. THE CU ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IS ALSO RAPIDLY
WANING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES...BUT ALL IN ALL THE
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 212225
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
625 PM UPDATE...A QUIET EVENING. THE CU ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IS ALSO RAPIDLY
WANING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES...BUT ALL IN ALL THE
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 212225
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
625 PM UPDATE...A QUIET EVENING. THE CU ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IS ALSO RAPIDLY
WANING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES...BUT ALL IN ALL THE
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/VJN/FITZSIMMONS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 211956
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211956
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211956
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211956
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS
OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS
SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO
CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED.

OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO
RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A
CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN.
LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN...
WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY
EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY,
DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER
ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING
VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE
SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW
WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS










000
FXUS61 KGYX 211850
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUIET DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WAS NEAR 80F INLAND BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THERE WERE SOME BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON GOES
IMAGERY AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER THERE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING. THERE WAS SOME MARINE STRATUS SOUTH OF CASCO
BAY ON GOES IMAGERY. THAT MAY WORK ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A BLEND
OF MET/MAV WAS USED FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
OR NIGHT.

THETA-E RICH AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FLOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SO-SO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND TAP SOME
REMNANT EML AIR AND FUNNEL IT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT THE THREAT MAY MOVE TO THE COAST IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER FASHION DURING THE EVENING. PWATS LOOK TO RISE CLOSE TO 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ALONG QUITE WELL...ANY TRAINING COULD POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY DEVELOP SOME ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WET
WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS WITH BRIEF LCL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR LOCALLY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR THU THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN FOG AND
HAZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER









000
FXUS61 KGYX 211850
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUIET DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WAS NEAR 80F INLAND BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THERE WERE SOME BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON GOES
IMAGERY AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER THERE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING. THERE WAS SOME MARINE STRATUS SOUTH OF CASCO
BAY ON GOES IMAGERY. THAT MAY WORK ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A BLEND
OF MET/MAV WAS USED FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
OR NIGHT.

THETA-E RICH AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FLOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SO-SO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND TAP SOME
REMNANT EML AIR AND FUNNEL IT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT THE THREAT MAY MOVE TO THE COAST IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER FASHION DURING THE EVENING. PWATS LOOK TO RISE CLOSE TO 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ALONG QUITE WELL...ANY TRAINING COULD POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY DEVELOP SOME ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WET
WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS WITH BRIEF LCL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR LOCALLY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR THU THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN FOG AND
HAZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER









000
FXUS61 KGYX 211850
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUIET DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WAS NEAR 80F INLAND BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THERE WERE SOME BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON GOES
IMAGERY AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER THERE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING. THERE WAS SOME MARINE STRATUS SOUTH OF CASCO
BAY ON GOES IMAGERY. THAT MAY WORK ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A BLEND
OF MET/MAV WAS USED FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
OR NIGHT.

THETA-E RICH AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FLOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SO-SO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND TAP SOME
REMNANT EML AIR AND FUNNEL IT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT THE THREAT MAY MOVE TO THE COAST IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER FASHION DURING THE EVENING. PWATS LOOK TO RISE CLOSE TO 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ALONG QUITE WELL...ANY TRAINING COULD POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY DEVELOP SOME ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WET
WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS WITH BRIEF LCL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR LOCALLY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR THU THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN FOG AND
HAZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER









000
FXUS61 KGYX 211850
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUIET DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WAS NEAR 80F INLAND BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THERE WERE SOME BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON GOES
IMAGERY AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER THERE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING. THERE WAS SOME MARINE STRATUS SOUTH OF CASCO
BAY ON GOES IMAGERY. THAT MAY WORK ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A BLEND
OF MET/MAV WAS USED FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
OR NIGHT.

THETA-E RICH AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FLOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SO-SO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND TAP SOME
REMNANT EML AIR AND FUNNEL IT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT THE THREAT MAY MOVE TO THE COAST IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER FASHION DURING THE EVENING. PWATS LOOK TO RISE CLOSE TO 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ALONG QUITE WELL...ANY TRAINING COULD POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY DEVELOP SOME ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WET
WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS WITH BRIEF LCL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR LOCALLY AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FOR THU THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN FOG AND
HAZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER









000
FXUS61 KGYX 211605
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1205 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1200 PM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

940 AM...QUIET DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...JUST SOME TWEAKS OF T/TD/SKY BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR TODAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING THE COAST COOL...AND THE RISK OF A SHOWER OR TWO IN
THE MTNS.

PREVIOUSLY...THE WEAK OCEAN LOW WILL SLIDE WELL TO OUR S AND E
THIS MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH...CENTERED TO OUR S...BEGINS TO
BUILD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP...AS
WEAK ONSHORE PGF DEVELOPS POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE. MAXES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL INLAND AREAS...AROUND 80...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW COASTAL AREAS WILL BE STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

NAM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE ALL
OTHER MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY. NOT SURE IF ITS PICKING UP ON WEAK
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW...OR THE LINGERING WEAK TROUGH AT 500
MB...OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH...BUT WITH DEW POINTS ON THE RISE
AND SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...FEEL THAT POPS OF 15-20 FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING ARE WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WE START TO TO SEE THE W-SW FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD MORE TO OUR SE
THAN S...HELPING TO PUSH DEW POINTS UP A BIT...AND GENERALLY
LIMITING THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO MINS NOT AS COLD AS
THIS MORNING...BUT STILL IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AS WE SEE INCREASING DEW POINTS...
BUT ALSO MORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL QUESTIONS ARISE AS
TO COASTAL STRATUS/FOG...BUT MODELS SUGGESTING IF IT DOES OCCUR
LOOKS TO BE AFTER SUNSET...WITH BETTER CHANCE ALONG THE MID-
COAST. HAVE THROWN SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ON THE COAST
FOR NOW.

ON TUESDAY...WILL SE THAT VERY ARM MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
THE WSW...GENERALLY REACHING 15-17C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. DEW POINTS WILL
CREEP UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS WELL. SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTS TO SW BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE E
FACING COASTS...KEEPING THEM A FEW DEGREES COOLER...WHILE THE MID-
COAST WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. MODELS SUGGESTING
SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS VICINITY OF NH/MA BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAYBE ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH MORE MOISTURE AROUND... TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MORE HUMID
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. ON WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... LIKELY REACHING THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT NOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +18C WHICH IF MIXED DRY
ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE WOULD TRANSLATE TO AROUND 90F FOR A
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE 90 WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE AWAY FROM THE
COAST... SO COASTAL AREAS (ESPECIALLY FROM PORTLAND EASTWARD) WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

OF COURSE WITH ALL THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...
THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
ACTUALLY SERVE AS A CAP TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING
INITIALLY. BUT THIS CAP WILL BE ERODED FROM THE BOTTOM AND THE TOP
AS THE DAY GOES ON... WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH COMBINE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND ALLOW ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY. THROW IN
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS FORM
INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE MOVING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES WILL AT LEAST BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT. BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURE... DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT... DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS IT DOES SO. BY THURSDAY A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
WILL BE MOVING IN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY... SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE DRY AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SEEING VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AT NON-TERMINAL SITES...
BUT NOTHING YET AT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT KHIE/KLEB TO SEE SOME
FOG/STRATUS BY SUNRISE...WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AT KCON AND MAYBE KAUG. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF COASTAL FOG STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING. ALL
TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR BY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COULD SEE SOME FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
THE USUAL CAVEATS ABOUT NOCTURNAL FOG AT LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT....WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL START TO SEE WSW WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL
PEAK AT 20 OR 25 KT... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RISING TO 4 TO 5 FEET.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING THE STRONGER WINDS TO AN END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 211605
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1205 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WE`LL
BECOME PROGRESSIVE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1200 PM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

940 AM...QUIET DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...JUST SOME TWEAKS OF T/TD/SKY BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR TODAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING THE COAST COOL...AND THE RISK OF A SHOWER OR TWO IN
THE MTNS.

PREVIOUSLY...THE WEAK OCEAN LOW WILL SLIDE WELL TO OUR S AND E
THIS MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH...CENTERED TO OUR S...BEGINS TO
BUILD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP...AS
WEAK ONSHORE PGF DEVELOPS POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE. MAXES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL INLAND AREAS...AROUND 80...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW COASTAL AREAS WILL BE STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

NAM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE ALL
OTHER MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY. NOT SURE IF ITS PICKING UP ON WEAK
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW...OR THE LINGERING WEAK TROUGH AT 500
MB...OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH...BUT WITH DEW POINTS ON THE RISE
AND SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...FEEL THAT POPS OF 15-20 FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING ARE WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WE START TO TO SEE THE W-SW FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD MORE TO OUR SE
THAN S...HELPING TO PUSH DEW POINTS UP A BIT...AND GENERALLY
LIMITING THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO MINS NOT AS COLD AS
THIS MORNING...BUT STILL IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG...AS WE SEE INCREASING DEW POINTS...
BUT ALSO MORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL QUESTIONS ARISE AS
TO COASTAL STRATUS/FOG...BUT MODELS SUGGESTING IF IT DOES OCCUR
LOOKS TO BE AFTER SUNSET...WITH BETTER CHANCE ALONG THE MID-
COAST. HAVE THROWN SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ON THE COAST
FOR NOW.

ON TUESDAY...WILL SE THAT VERY ARM MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
THE WSW...GENERALLY REACHING 15-17C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. DEW POINTS WILL
CREEP UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS WELL. SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTS TO SW BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE E
FACING COASTS...KEEPING THEM A FEW DEGREES COOLER...WHILE THE MID-
COAST WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. MODELS SUGGESTING
SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS VICINITY OF NH/MA BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAYBE ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH MORE MOISTURE AROUND... TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MORE HUMID
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. ON WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... LIKELY REACHING THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT NOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +18C WHICH IF MIXED DRY
ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE WOULD TRANSLATE TO AROUND 90F FOR A
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE 90 WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE AWAY FROM THE
COAST... SO COASTAL AREAS (ESPECIALLY FROM PORTLAND EASTWARD) WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

OF COURSE WITH ALL THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...
THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
ACTUALLY SERVE AS A CAP TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING
INITIALLY. BUT THIS CAP WILL BE ERODED FROM THE BOTTOM AND THE TOP
AS THE DAY GOES ON... WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH COMBINE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND ALLOW ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY. THROW IN
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS FORM
INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE MOVING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES WILL AT LEAST BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT. BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURE... DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT... DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS IT DOES SO. BY THURSDAY A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
WILL BE MOVING IN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY... SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE DRY AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SEEING VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AT NON-TERMINAL SITES...
BUT NOTHING YET AT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT KHIE/KLEB TO SEE SOME
FOG/STRATUS BY SUNRISE...WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AT KCON AND MAYBE KAUG. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF COASTAL FOG STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING. ALL
TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR BY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COULD SEE SOME FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
THE USUAL CAVEATS ABOUT NOCTURNAL FOG AT LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT....WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL START TO SEE WSW WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL
PEAK AT 20 OR 25 KT... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RISING TO 4 TO 5 FEET.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING THE STRONGER WINDS TO AN END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES







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