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000
FXUS61 KGYX 281339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

928 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TREND AND
TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE VICINITY OF OUR INTERNATIONAL AREA NEAR 23Z. THIS FEATURE COULD
PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED 12Z KGYX RAOB
SHOWS CAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH AGREES WELL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 281336
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
936 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE...
ILL-DEFINED SFC TROF LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AT THIS TIME BASED ON LWR DWPTS ALONG WITH 3 HR PRESSURE
CHG GRADIENT. EXPECT THIS BNDRY WL SLIP SOUTH THRU THE COURSE OF
THE DAY LKLY ENTERING NRN MAINE BY NOON, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF
ANY THREAT FOR STORMS OVR THE FAR NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THIS
BNDRY CAN SLIP WL DETERMINE WHERE STORMS MAY DVLP.

PRIOR RUN OF HRRR SHOWED ESSENTIALLY NIL FOR CONVECTION TDA WHILE
THE LATEST RUN IS NOW SHOWING ISOLD ECHOES DVLPNG DOWNEAST AFT 17Z
THIS AFTN, WHICH THE LATEST RAP IS NOW COMING ON BOARD WITH.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PAGE IS SHOWING 500 J ACRS CNTRL SXNS OF CWA
WITH CIN OVR THE CROWN AND ALSO DOWNEAST IN WAKE OF STORMS AND
LINGERING CLD CVR.

STILL EXPECTING MOST OF CONVECTION TO EXIST MAINLY SOUTH OF A
BANGOR-DANFORTH LINE THIS AFTN THO THIS WL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
BNDRY CAN SLIP THRU. PROGGED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WL BE
MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS THIS AFTN WITH CAPES APPCHG 1000 J/KG IN
DOWNEAST AREAS. TWEAKED POP, WX AND SKY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH JUST ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PRIMARILY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
IMPROVING IN ALL AREAS TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281015
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0605 EDT: HAVE ADDED HIGHER POPS AND ADDED THUNDER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PRIMARILY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
IMPROVING IN ALL AREAS TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280954
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
554 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... KIMBLE
LONG TERM... HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280954
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
554 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
6AM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MADE IT TO THE COASTLINE A LITTLE
BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... KIMBLE
LONG TERM... HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
455 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PRIMARILY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
IMPROVING IN ALL AREAS TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280855
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
455 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PRIMARILY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
IMPROVING IN ALL AREAS TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 2000 OR MORE CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE STRONG BY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. IN PART THIS
LARGE CAPE VALUE IS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHICH CAUSES DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
THE RESULT IS A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH HELPS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY... AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO BAKE IN THE HEAT LONGER BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO STALL HEATING. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY COULD WELL GO UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE
OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND INITIATE LIFTING.

IN THE SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER WE FIND A SURFACE FRONT / WIND SHIFT
LINE WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH THE FOOTHILLS REGION OF MAINE PERHAPS
NEAR AUGUSTA BEFORE IT COLLIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THESE TWO BOUNDARIES... AND
THEIR POSSIBLE COLLISION... COULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT WOULD BE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH LEADS TO MORE FOCUSED RISING MOTION OVER THE PEAKS.
OF THESE TWO SOURCES... THE COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE CAP AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERALL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE JUST
UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS... HOWEVER IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN LOCALLY
ENHANCED REGIONS OF SHEAR. THE TOTAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALSO
SUGGESTS HAIL TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AND THE WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE CAP SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK
EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF BACK BUILDING ALONG THE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS SO ANY STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXIST COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MARINE FOG COULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE MAINE COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY GET
STALLED BY THE COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND
EXTENDING TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SO IF STORMS DO
FORM THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN ALOFT... MAKING IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
CAP. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR. JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES... EVEN TYPICALLY COOL ROCKLAND.
PORTLAND MAY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES BEFORE A SEA BREEZE CUTS
HEATING SHORT. INLAND AREAS AND MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S...
BUT FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100 DEGREES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THEIR WAY OUT THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COOLS THINGS DOWN. STORMS WILL
BENEFIT FROM WARM MUGGY AIR BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER IN
CANADA AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS HERE. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY AND TO THE NE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND MAINE.

ANOTHER SEEMINGLY UNANCHORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TEND TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZES... OUTFLOWS...
ETC) THAT WILL BE HARD TO DEFINE AHEAD OF TIME. THUS IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL GET RAIN AND WHO WONT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY... SUCH IS THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE TODAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE MAINE COAST AND
VALLEY FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON
SATURDAY... SCATTERED MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT MAY BRUSH
NEAR 5 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280442
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 1235 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280442
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 1235 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280442
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 1235 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280442
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 1235 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280408
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TRY TO SHOW BEST
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
FLOODING THREAT MAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AS STORM MOTION IS QUICKER
NOW.

9 PM UPDATE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS IS A
FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT
INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

700 PM UPDATE...
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION AHEAD
LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE
WITH LITTLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. ALSO...STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 TO 2000...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY
VALUES IN THE 100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AS WELL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL
RISE TO NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AS
WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280408
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TRY TO SHOW BEST
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
FLOODING THREAT MAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AS STORM MOTION IS QUICKER
NOW.

9 PM UPDATE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS IS A
FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT
INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

700 PM UPDATE...
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION AHEAD
LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE
WITH LITTLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. ALSO...STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 TO 2000...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY
VALUES IN THE 100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AS WELL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL
RISE TO NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AS
WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280408
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TRY TO SHOW BEST
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
FLOODING THREAT MAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AS STORM MOTION IS QUICKER
NOW.

9 PM UPDATE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS IS A
FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT
INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

700 PM UPDATE...
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION AHEAD
LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE
WITH LITTLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. ALSO...STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 TO 2000...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY
VALUES IN THE 100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AS WELL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL
RISE TO NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AS
WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280408
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1208 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TRY TO SHOW BEST
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
FLOODING THREAT MAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AS STORM MOTION IS QUICKER
NOW.

9 PM UPDATE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS IS A
FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT
INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

700 PM UPDATE...
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION AHEAD
LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE
WITH LITTLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. ALSO...STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF
1000 TO 2000...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY
VALUES IN THE 100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AS WELL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL
RISE TO NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AS
WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA, WE HAVE A
SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AND
ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF BANGOR IN
SOUTHERN SOMERSET. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
BUT TO GENERALLY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
NEARING THE OCEAN. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS NEAR WHERE THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES.

700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA, WE HAVE A
SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AND
ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF BANGOR IN
SOUTHERN SOMERSET. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
BUT TO GENERALLY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
NEARING THE OCEAN. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS NEAR WHERE THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES.

700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA, WE HAVE A
SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AND
ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF BANGOR IN
SOUTHERN SOMERSET. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
BUT TO GENERALLY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
NEARING THE OCEAN. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS NEAR WHERE THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES.

700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA, WE HAVE A
SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AND
ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF BANGOR IN
SOUTHERN SOMERSET. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
BUT TO GENERALLY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
NEARING THE OCEAN. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS NEAR WHERE THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES.

700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA, WE HAVE A
SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AND
ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF BANGOR IN
SOUTHERN SOMERSET. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
BUT TO GENERALLY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
NEARING THE OCEAN. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS NEAR WHERE THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES.

700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA, WE HAVE A
SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AND
ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF BANGOR IN
SOUTHERN SOMERSET. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
BUT TO GENERALLY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
NEARING THE OCEAN. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS NEAR WHERE THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES.

700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA, WE HAVE A
SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AND
ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF BANGOR IN
SOUTHERN SOMERSET. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
BUT TO GENERALLY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
NEARING THE OCEAN. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS NEAR WHERE THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES.

700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA, WE HAVE A
SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AND
ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF BANGOR IN
SOUTHERN SOMERSET. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
BUT TO GENERALLY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL
NEARING THE OCEAN. RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS NEAR WHERE THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES.

700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT
TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280109
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
909 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE: NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. FURTHER DESTABLIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER
ATLANTIC WATERS IS A FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE
WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP
WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS
FURTHER INLAND.

705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280109
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
909 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE: NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RAISE HAVOC SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSIST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. FURTHER DESTABLIZATION OF THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE COOLER
ATLANTIC WATERS IS A FOG GENERATING MACHINE BUT LACK OF AN ONSHORE
WIND FLOW TO PUSH IT INLAND SO CURRENT GUT FEELING IS TO KEEP
WIDESPREAD OCEAN FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY AREAS
FURTHER INLAND.

705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272315
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272315
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272315
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272315
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND NEEDED JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUICED UP ATMOSPHERE MEANS MORE CONVECTION
AHEAD LATE TONIGHT AS SOME MODELS INDICATING. TRENDS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER FLOW. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272311
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS
DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272311
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS
DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR



000
FXUS61 KCAR 272311
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS
DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR



000
FXUS61 KCAR 272311
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS
DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271958
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
358 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 1500-2000J SB CAPE.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. A FEW OF THE
STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING CAN CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
DOWN EAST COAST. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271958
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
358 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 1500-2000J SB CAPE.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. A FEW OF THE
STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING CAN CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
DOWN EAST COAST. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND THESE SHOULD
TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ROUGHLY N AND E OF OF KRKD-KHIE LINE WITH
LITTLE SHRA OR TSRA S OF THERE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN COASTAL FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THRU TUE
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S N TO
MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES JUST N OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
CAPPING INVERSION ALSO WILL BE PRESENT SO THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PLACES THAT CAN GENERATE FORCING. HOWEVER...WILL SEE
DISTINCT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ALSO...STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 1K-
2K...COMBINED WITH AT LEAST GOOD VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL HELP
GENERATE GOOD UPDRAFTS AND PULSE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION WILL BEING HELICITY VALUES INT EH
100-200 RANGE...SO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS
WELL...WILL COULD ADD LARGER HAIL TO THE MIX. MAXES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 IN SRN NH...AND 80S MOST OTHER PLACES WITH TDS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.

WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING AND FOG FORMING
AGAIN. COULD SEE MINS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MON NIGHT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS LEAD IMPULSE...WE CARVE OUT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THAT WILL FEATURE A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS OR TROUGHS. FRIDAY FEATURES SOME WEAK RIDGING...AND ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...WITH CONVECTION TO BE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...

THU PM - FRI AM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271753
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
153 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED THE ATMOS TO DESTABILIZE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS SHOWING A FEW
STRONG CELLS BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE AT TIME. WE COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THESE CELLS. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY HAS MENTION. EXPECT A FEW CELLS TO SLOWLY WORK
INTO NORTHEAST MAINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271753
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
153 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED THE ATMOS TO DESTABILIZE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS SHOWING A FEW
STRONG CELLS BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE AT TIME. WE COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THESE CELLS. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY HAS MENTION. EXPECT A FEW CELLS TO SLOWLY WORK
INTO NORTHEAST MAINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271753
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
153 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED THE ATMOS TO DESTABILIZE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS SHOWING A FEW
STRONG CELLS BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE AT TIME. WE COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THESE CELLS. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY HAS MENTION. EXPECT A FEW CELLS TO SLOWLY WORK
INTO NORTHEAST MAINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271753
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
153 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED THE ATMOS TO DESTABILIZE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS SHOWING A FEW
STRONG CELLS BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE AT TIME. WE COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THESE CELLS. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY HAS MENTION. EXPECT A FEW CELLS TO SLOWLY WORK
INTO NORTHEAST MAINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271617
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM...MESOSCALE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO FIRE UP CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NH THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY IS PROBABLY LINGERING. THEREFORE, HAVE
HOT THIS A LITTLE HARDER ON POPS/QPF THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO..MAY SEE
SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SO ADDED HEAVY RAIN HERE.
ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE MONTREAL AREA
NOW...WHICH MAY WORK INTO NRN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS HAS ACCESS TO SOME BETTER DYNAMICS, AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE COAST COULD
SEE A FEW SCATTERED TSRA POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WEAK CAPPING
SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM LASTING LONG.

950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271617
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM...MESOSCALE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO FIRE UP CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NH THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY IS PROBABLY LINGERING. THEREFORE, HAVE
HOT THIS A LITTLE HARDER ON POPS/QPF THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO..MAY SEE
SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SO ADDED HEAVY RAIN HERE.
ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE MONTREAL AREA
NOW...WHICH MAY WORK INTO NRN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS HAS ACCESS TO SOME BETTER DYNAMICS, AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE COAST COULD
SEE A FEW SCATTERED TSRA POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WEAK CAPPING
SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM LASTING LONG.

950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271617
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM...MESOSCALE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO FIRE UP CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NH THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY IS PROBABLY LINGERING. THEREFORE, HAVE
HOT THIS A LITTLE HARDER ON POPS/QPF THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO..MAY SEE
SOME BACKBUILDING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SO ADDED HEAVY RAIN HERE.
ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE MONTREAL AREA
NOW...WHICH MAY WORK INTO NRN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS HAS ACCESS TO SOME BETTER DYNAMICS, AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE COAST COULD
SEE A FEW SCATTERED TSRA POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WEAK CAPPING
SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM LASTING LONG.

950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271431
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE, WITH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND
DOWN EAST MAINE STILL SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUD AT THIS HOUR. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE BACK ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
SMALL HAIL BUT NOT THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS POINT. DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL, PER LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271431
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE, WITH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND
DOWN EAST MAINE STILL SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUD AT THIS HOUR. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE BACK ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
SMALL HAIL BUT NOT THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS POINT. DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL, PER LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271431
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE, WITH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND
DOWN EAST MAINE STILL SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUD AT THIS HOUR. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE BACK ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
SMALL HAIL BUT NOT THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS POINT. DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL, PER LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271431
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE, WITH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND
DOWN EAST MAINE STILL SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUD AT THIS HOUR. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE BACK ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
SMALL HAIL BUT NOT THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS POINT. DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL, PER LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271431
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE, WITH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND
DOWN EAST MAINE STILL SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUD AT THIS HOUR. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE BACK ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
SMALL HAIL BUT NOT THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS POINT. DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL, PER LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271431
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE..LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE, WITH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND
DOWN EAST MAINE STILL SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUD AT THIS HOUR. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE BACK ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
SMALL HAIL BUT NOT THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS POINT. DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL, PER LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS FORECAST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...THIS UPDATE SCALES BACK THE FOG...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LINGER JUST OFFSHORE AND PROBABLY COME AND GO AT THE BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE ALL SCALED BACK POPS TO CLOSER TO ZERO
THRU NOON...AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO CHC POPS BY 18Z. LOTS OF
CAPE IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K J/KG...BUT LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. STILL COULD SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO
ROTATE TO HOLD UP A CORE AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MAYBE
SOME WIND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEA BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS...AND BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY THAT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS
CHESHIRE/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

PREVIOUSLY...MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH
OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A
LITTLE COOLER OVER MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0615 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0615 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0615 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0615 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0615 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
447 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
447 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
447 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
447 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
447 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WILL INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR
POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL WAS
USED FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE CONSENSUS ALL USED FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION. FOR WINDS HAVE
USED THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID MORNING
W/LLVL INVERSION BREAKING. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THINGS MORE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
60S BY THE AFTERNOON W/TEMPS HITTING AOA 80F EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SSW WIND. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SB/MU CAPES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 JOULES BY THE
AFTERNOON W/LIS -4 TO -6. TOTALS HITTING AROUND 50 W/THE SHOWALTER
INDEX DROP BELOW 0 IN SOME AREAS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 6.5 C/KM W/PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. PLUS, FREEZING
LEVELS/WBZS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 11K FT WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE
REGION FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING DO SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HAIL
AND EVEN STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER FURTHER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST ATTM DUE TO SSW WIND.

SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE W/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ATTM,
STORM STRUCTURE LOOKS TO BE MULTICELLULAR W/A STORM OR 2 GOING
SUPERCELL. ONE THING TO NOTE, THIS SETUP MATCHES THE MINI-SUPERCELL
PATTERN W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW AND COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE E TUESDAY NIGHT
W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY LINGERING, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN JUST SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW W/SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WSW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND W/DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DAYS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST NOTICEABLE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AND RATHER WARM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THERE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SINCE THIS IS DAY 4, DECIDED TO
STAY W/GENERAL WORDING ATTM. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE IN
CLOSER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN.

A SURFACE TROF COMBINED W/AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM TO KICK OFF BY LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 50%, SO STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%). PARTIAL CLEARING
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY W/MORE
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TIMEFRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS AND ANY FOG BURN OFF. EXPECTING POSSIBLE MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/SHRA AND TSRAS. SOME TSRAS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBLE FOG W/CONDITIONS DIPPING TO
IFR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHRAS AND
TSRAS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY W/CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT LOCAL WINDS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY MADE UP OF BLEND
TWO WAVES SYSTEMS COMING INTO WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET/6 SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP SOUTHEASTERLY 1-2
FEET 11 SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE
WAVE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG TUE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WILL KICK SEAS A BIT AND LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTRA COASTAL ZONE. A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY W/DRIER WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS W/HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
MOIST AIR MASS NOW FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS IS NOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF MAINE AND
PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF AS
THE MORNING WEARS ON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S
OVER MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE... WHILE STAYING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND TEMPERS WARMING.

AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD AT THE SURFACE... A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR TODAY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT... SO NOT SOMETHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER... THE NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD COUNTERACT
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND PROVIDE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AREAS OF BETTER TOTAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
AREAS WILL BE LACKING IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
COOLER ONSHORE WIND... BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT EVEN OVER THESE AREAS. WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE FOG REFORMING ALONG THE MAINE
COASTLINE.

ON TUESDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA... ALONG WITH EVEN GREATER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GREATER...
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS IS GETTING ON THE BORDER LINE OF
WHAT MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT... HAVE MENTIONED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH... AS THE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OR COME THROUGH
EARLIER... LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW WHICH WOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT SE AS RIDGING PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SHORT LIVED AND THE
RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LINGERS ALOFT EVERY
18-24 HRS OR SO.

THE RESULT HOWEVER BRIEF WILL BE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES
C OVER SOUTHERN NH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER TO MID
90S WITH MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REACH THE 70S
AND 80S STILL AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD AND WE COULD HAVE STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH A FAST MOVING
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES OR SO WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE. COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER EAST OF PORTLAND THOUGH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING IN THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL FOG IN MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WIND FLOW LIGHT AND SEAS
FAIRLY CALM.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ010-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270440
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE
FOG HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. MAY SEE SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN THE FRYEBURG TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR AS
BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY AFFECT THE LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. BUT IN GENERAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND GET
DENSER. HAVE ALSO ADJUST HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT
REMNANT SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THEY TRACK EAST.

1010 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS NRN NH MAY PERSIST OCCASIONALLY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AS WEAK FORCING TRAVERSES THE AREA.

740 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SHOWERS
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK WAA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

520 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ010-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270440
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE
FOG HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. MAY SEE SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN THE FRYEBURG TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR AS
BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST MAY AFFECT THE LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. BUT IN GENERAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND GET
DENSER. HAVE ALSO ADJUST HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT
REMNANT SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THEY TRACK EAST.

1010 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS NRN NH MAY PERSIST OCCASIONALLY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AS WEAK FORCING TRAVERSES THE AREA.

740 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SHOWERS
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK WAA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

520 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ010-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270406
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1206 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1201 AM UPDATE: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270406
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1206 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1201 AM UPDATE: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270406
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1206 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1201 AM UPDATE: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270210
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1010 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS NRN NH MAY PERSIST OCCASIONALLY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AS WEAK FORCING TRAVERSES THE AREA.

740 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SHOWERS
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK WAA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

520 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270210
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1010 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS NRN NH MAY PERSIST OCCASIONALLY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AS WEAK FORCING TRAVERSES THE AREA.

740 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SHOWERS
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK WAA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

520 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270158
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
950 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

710 PM UPDATE...
BEEFED UP FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND GIVEN HOW LOW THE CLOUDS ALREADY ARE, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST. TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE ALSO A BIT TOO WARM BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, SO LOWERED THEM JUST A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270158
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
950 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

710 PM UPDATE...
BEEFED UP FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND GIVEN HOW LOW THE CLOUDS ALREADY ARE, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST. TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE ALSO A BIT TOO WARM BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, SO LOWERED THEM JUST A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270158
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
950 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

710 PM UPDATE...
BEEFED UP FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND GIVEN HOW LOW THE CLOUDS ALREADY ARE, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST. TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE ALSO A BIT TOO WARM BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, SO LOWERED THEM JUST A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270158
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
950 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

710 PM UPDATE...
BEEFED UP FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND GIVEN HOW LOW THE CLOUDS ALREADY ARE, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST. TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE ALSO A BIT TOO WARM BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, SO LOWERED THEM JUST A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270158
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
950 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

710 PM UPDATE...
BEEFED UP FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND GIVEN HOW LOW THE CLOUDS ALREADY ARE, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST. TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE ALSO A BIT TOO WARM BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, SO LOWERED THEM JUST A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SHOWERS
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK WAA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

520 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. SHOWERS
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK WAA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

520 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 262315
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
715 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
710 PM UPDATE...
BEEFED UP FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND GIVEN HOW LOW THE CLOUDS ALREADY ARE, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST. TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE ALSO A BIT TOO WARM BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, SO LOWERED THEM JUST A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 262315
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
715 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
710 PM UPDATE...
BEEFED UP FOG WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND GIVEN HOW LOW THE CLOUDS ALREADY ARE, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST. TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE ALSO A BIT TOO WARM BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, SO LOWERED THEM JUST A COUPLE DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME
SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
519 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
520 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS AN
AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR AND LIFR LATER
TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DOWN EAST. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE SOME SCT
TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS AN
AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR AND LIFR LATER
TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DOWN EAST. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE SOME SCT
TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS AN
AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR AND LIFR LATER
TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DOWN EAST. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE SOME SCT
TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS AN
AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD.
THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG
MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED
UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG
SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH
AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN.

SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING
IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR
NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN
DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR
LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR
THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS
SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING.

CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY.
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX
DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC
TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS
LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS
MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE
LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE
COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR AND LIFR LATER
TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DOWN EAST. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE SOME SCT
TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF
FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH HEATING IN WESTERN ZONES TO
PRODUCE MODEST CAPES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE WINDOW TO BE BRIEF.

FARTHER EAST...LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SUN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STRATUS WILL HANG IN ACROSS MOST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BLANKET MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT
NOT LOOKING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGH TEMPS IN INLAND LOCATION
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COASTAL AREAS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES BUT FORCING RATHER LIMITED SO
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPEAD. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BOTTOM IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET IN SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...ON
THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...AND 90+
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU...AT LEAST IN PARTS OF SRN NH
AND INTERIOR SW ME. SHEARING 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE COMPACT 500 MB WAVE THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUE INTO WED AND WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO ME LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM
REACHING 90 THIS WEEK...AS COASTAL AREAS WERE UNLIKELY TO HIT
90...GIVEN SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS DOES CROSS
JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT...GIVEN
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING TO
HELP GET CONVECTION GOING. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION MIGHT
NEED A TRIGGER AND OTHER THAN SOME SCT STORMS IN THE TERRAIN...THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES OUT AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WED SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND...AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON THE COAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION POP UP ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AGAIN /OR IN THE TERRAIN/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN TUE...IF
ANYTHING FIRES AT ALL. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...MAINLY IN URBAN SRN NH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU...AND SUPPORTING 500MB WAVE DOES BEGIN
TO SHEAR AND LIFT POLEWARD...SO BETTER CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO BETTER DYNAMICS. IT
WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN...AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...COULD BE EVEN WARMER
THAN WED. COASTAL AREAS MAY GET THRU THE DAY WITH NO
PRECIP...WHICH MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING OR JUST DIMINISH
INLAND.

T/TD FALLS BACK ON FRI AND SAT...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD SET OFF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA IN
THE MTNS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR ON MONDAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN AREA OF FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE THRU FRI. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TUE AND THU
AFTERNOON. VLY FOG EXPECTED AT KHIE/KLEB TUE AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS THRU
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUE/WED/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
105 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED ISLD THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NEAREST THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND
WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS
LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH
PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF A BLEND OF SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE AT 5-6 SECONDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10
SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
105 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED ISLD THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NEAREST THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND
WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS
LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH
PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF A BLEND OF SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE AT 5-6 SECONDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10
SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
105 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED ISLD THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NEAREST THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND
WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS
LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH
PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF A BLEND OF SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE AT 5-6 SECONDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10
SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
105 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED ISLD THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NEAREST THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND
WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS
LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH
PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF A BLEND OF SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE AT 5-6 SECONDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10
SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261521
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE
ON TUESDAY AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY... EXCEPT FOR SOME MODERATE COOLING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF MAINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT HAVE PETTY MUCH MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A FEW STRAY CELLS LEFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS DOWNWARD BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THIS MORNING AND
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BACK A BIT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THESE BREAKS WILL BE SHOWING UP IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY NEXT FEW
HOURS. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE UP IN THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUNNY BREAKS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
ATTM.


ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS AND EVENTUALLY DECIDES TO STALL OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA. AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE POINT LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH WAS
MOVING EAST AS WELL. THE WARM FRONT ON OUR DOOR STEP HAS ALREADY
TRIGGERED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SUIT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP BOOST
SURFACE BASED CAPE...HOWEVER FEATURES SUCH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE WEAK. THIS LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WARM RAIN CHARACTERISTICS WERE NOTED IN THIS
AIRMASS.

TODAY WILL BE HOTTER AND WITH DEWPOINTS COMING UP YOU WILL BE
ABLE TO FEEL THE INCREASING HUMIDITY. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF MAINE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FOISTED OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
WE WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. IF YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO LIVES
ALONE WITHOUT AN A/C THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO CHECK ON THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND THEN THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO... EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW PROVIDING THE LIFT
NEEDED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WAVE
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
TAKING MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE OF THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND
PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM MODEL HOWEVER IS
SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER WITH THIS WAVE... MOVING THE LIFT EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN IN THE NAM SCENARIO THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (GREATER THAN 2000 CAPE NEAR
AUGUSTA!) ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. SURFACE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE COULD STILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP... AND WITH THE
TIMING OF THE BEST LIFT UNCERTAIN IT WAS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS THE DAY GOES ON AND COULD BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS REACHING THE 80S AND
SOME 90S EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
HUMIDITY.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN MAINE AND THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPER THE OVERALL HEAT AND HUMIDITY
THAT OTHERWISE WILL HAVE INVADED THE AREA. EXPECT MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE TO STILL BE WITHIN THE WARMER AIR MASS WHILE
TEMPERATURES FURTHER EAST ARE INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A COOLING INFLUENCE TO MUCH OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THIS
MARITIME INFLUENCE BY THE MOUNTAINS... WARMING INTO THE 90S ONCE
AGAIN.

ALSO ON THURSDAY... THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR LIFT TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM...
HUMID... AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. AS A RESULT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. THE BEST WIND
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND ELEVATED WITHIN THE MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
MAINE... THUS LIMITING THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE.

CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER... BUT STILL WARM... AIR MASS. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPROVE
BUT HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MVFR CEILINGS AT LEAST LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A MORE MARITIME AIR MASS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE LOCATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. NIGHTLY FOG SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT
LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261521
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE
ON TUESDAY AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY... EXCEPT FOR SOME MODERATE COOLING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF MAINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT HAVE PETTY MUCH MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A FEW STRAY CELLS LEFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS DOWNWARD BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THIS MORNING AND
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BACK A BIT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THESE BREAKS WILL BE SHOWING UP IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY NEXT FEW
HOURS. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE UP IN THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUNNY BREAKS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
ATTM.


ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS AND EVENTUALLY DECIDES TO STALL OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA. AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE POINT LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH WAS
MOVING EAST AS WELL. THE WARM FRONT ON OUR DOOR STEP HAS ALREADY
TRIGGERED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SUIT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP BOOST
SURFACE BASED CAPE...HOWEVER FEATURES SUCH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE WEAK. THIS LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WARM RAIN CHARACTERISTICS WERE NOTED IN THIS
AIRMASS.

TODAY WILL BE HOTTER AND WITH DEWPOINTS COMING UP YOU WILL BE
ABLE TO FEEL THE INCREASING HUMIDITY. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF MAINE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FOISTED OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
WE WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. IF YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO LIVES
ALONE WITHOUT AN A/C THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO CHECK ON THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND THEN THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO... EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW PROVIDING THE LIFT
NEEDED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WAVE
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
TAKING MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE OF THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND
PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM MODEL HOWEVER IS
SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER WITH THIS WAVE... MOVING THE LIFT EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN IN THE NAM SCENARIO THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (GREATER THAN 2000 CAPE NEAR
AUGUSTA!) ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. SURFACE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE COULD STILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP... AND WITH THE
TIMING OF THE BEST LIFT UNCERTAIN IT WAS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS THE DAY GOES ON AND COULD BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS REACHING THE 80S AND
SOME 90S EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
HUMIDITY.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN MAINE AND THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPER THE OVERALL HEAT AND HUMIDITY
THAT OTHERWISE WILL HAVE INVADED THE AREA. EXPECT MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE TO STILL BE WITHIN THE WARMER AIR MASS WHILE
TEMPERATURES FURTHER EAST ARE INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A COOLING INFLUENCE TO MUCH OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THIS
MARITIME INFLUENCE BY THE MOUNTAINS... WARMING INTO THE 90S ONCE
AGAIN.

ALSO ON THURSDAY... THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR LIFT TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM...
HUMID... AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. AS A RESULT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. THE BEST WIND
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND ELEVATED WITHIN THE MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
MAINE... THUS LIMITING THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE.

CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER... BUT STILL WARM... AIR MASS. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPROVE
BUT HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MVFR CEILINGS AT LEAST LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A MORE MARITIME AIR MASS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE LOCATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. NIGHTLY FOG SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT
LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261521
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE
ON TUESDAY AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY... EXCEPT FOR SOME MODERATE COOLING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF MAINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT HAVE PETTY MUCH MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A FEW STRAY CELLS LEFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS DOWNWARD BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THIS MORNING AND
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BACK A BIT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THESE BREAKS WILL BE SHOWING UP IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY NEXT FEW
HOURS. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE UP IN THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUNNY BREAKS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
ATTM.


ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS AND EVENTUALLY DECIDES TO STALL OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA. AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE POINT LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH WAS
MOVING EAST AS WELL. THE WARM FRONT ON OUR DOOR STEP HAS ALREADY
TRIGGERED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SUIT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP BOOST
SURFACE BASED CAPE...HOWEVER FEATURES SUCH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE WEAK. THIS LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WARM RAIN CHARACTERISTICS WERE NOTED IN THIS
AIRMASS.

TODAY WILL BE HOTTER AND WITH DEWPOINTS COMING UP YOU WILL BE
ABLE TO FEEL THE INCREASING HUMIDITY. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF MAINE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FOISTED OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
WE WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. IF YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO LIVES
ALONE WITHOUT AN A/C THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO CHECK ON THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND THEN THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO... EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW PROVIDING THE LIFT
NEEDED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WAVE
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
TAKING MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE OF THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND
PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM MODEL HOWEVER IS
SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER WITH THIS WAVE... MOVING THE LIFT EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN IN THE NAM SCENARIO THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (GREATER THAN 2000 CAPE NEAR
AUGUSTA!) ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. SURFACE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE COULD STILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP... AND WITH THE
TIMING OF THE BEST LIFT UNCERTAIN IT WAS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS THE DAY GOES ON AND COULD BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS REACHING THE 80S AND
SOME 90S EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
HUMIDITY.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN MAINE AND THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPER THE OVERALL HEAT AND HUMIDITY
THAT OTHERWISE WILL HAVE INVADED THE AREA. EXPECT MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE TO STILL BE WITHIN THE WARMER AIR MASS WHILE
TEMPERATURES FURTHER EAST ARE INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A COOLING INFLUENCE TO MUCH OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THIS
MARITIME INFLUENCE BY THE MOUNTAINS... WARMING INTO THE 90S ONCE
AGAIN.

ALSO ON THURSDAY... THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR LIFT TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM...
HUMID... AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. AS A RESULT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. THE BEST WIND
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND ELEVATED WITHIN THE MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
MAINE... THUS LIMITING THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE.

CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER... BUT STILL WARM... AIR MASS. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPROVE
BUT HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MVFR CEILINGS AT LEAST LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A MORE MARITIME AIR MASS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE LOCATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. NIGHTLY FOG SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT
LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261521
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE
ON TUESDAY AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY... EXCEPT FOR SOME MODERATE COOLING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF MAINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT HAVE PETTY MUCH MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A FEW STRAY CELLS LEFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS DOWNWARD BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THIS MORNING AND
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BACK A BIT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THESE BREAKS WILL BE SHOWING UP IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY NEXT FEW
HOURS. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE UP IN THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUNNY BREAKS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
ATTM.


ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS AND EVENTUALLY DECIDES TO STALL OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA. AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE POINT LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH WAS
MOVING EAST AS WELL. THE WARM FRONT ON OUR DOOR STEP HAS ALREADY
TRIGGERED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SUIT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP BOOST
SURFACE BASED CAPE...HOWEVER FEATURES SUCH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE WEAK. THIS LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WARM RAIN CHARACTERISTICS WERE NOTED IN THIS
AIRMASS.

TODAY WILL BE HOTTER AND WITH DEWPOINTS COMING UP YOU WILL BE
ABLE TO FEEL THE INCREASING HUMIDITY. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF MAINE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FOISTED OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
WE WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. IF YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO LIVES
ALONE WITHOUT AN A/C THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO CHECK ON THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND THEN THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO... EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW PROVIDING THE LIFT
NEEDED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WAVE
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
TAKING MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE OF THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND
PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM MODEL HOWEVER IS
SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER WITH THIS WAVE... MOVING THE LIFT EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN IN THE NAM SCENARIO THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (GREATER THAN 2000 CAPE NEAR
AUGUSTA!) ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. SURFACE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE COULD STILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP... AND WITH THE
TIMING OF THE BEST LIFT UNCERTAIN IT WAS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS THE DAY GOES ON AND COULD BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS REACHING THE 80S AND
SOME 90S EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
HUMIDITY.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN MAINE AND THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPER THE OVERALL HEAT AND HUMIDITY
THAT OTHERWISE WILL HAVE INVADED THE AREA. EXPECT MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE TO STILL BE WITHIN THE WARMER AIR MASS WHILE
TEMPERATURES FURTHER EAST ARE INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A COOLING INFLUENCE TO MUCH OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THIS
MARITIME INFLUENCE BY THE MOUNTAINS... WARMING INTO THE 90S ONCE
AGAIN.

ALSO ON THURSDAY... THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR LIFT TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM...
HUMID... AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. AS A RESULT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. THE BEST WIND
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND ELEVATED WITHIN THE MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
MAINE... THUS LIMITING THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE.

CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER... BUT STILL WARM... AIR MASS. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPROVE
BUT HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MVFR CEILINGS AT LEAST LATER TODAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A MORE MARITIME AIR MASS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE LOCATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. NIGHTLY FOG SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT
LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1028 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NEAREST THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND
WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS
LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH
PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF A BLEND OF SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE AT 5-6 SECONDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10
SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1028 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NEAREST THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND
WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS
LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH
PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF A BLEND OF SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE AT 5-6 SECONDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10
SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE




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