[top]
000
FXUS61 KCAR 250523
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
123 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
120 AM UPDATE: LATEST 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITTING ALONG EASTERN MAINE AND LOW PRES SLOWLY LIFTING N FROM SE MA.
ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
STEADIEST RAFL ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST UNDER AREA OF DECENT
FORCING AT 850-700MBS AND THETA E GRADIENT PER THE NAM12 AND RUC.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THIS TREND AS WELL SHOWING
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE NNE AND WNW
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT OBS SHOWING
LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT TO UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S OUT WEST AND STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NNE
AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
STREAMING NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND CUTOFF
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS
SYSTEM KEEPING RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND
WEST TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE SAT EVENING AND TRACK INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
SUN EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON MEMORIAL
DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP IT QUITE COOL AND
WET SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. THE STEADIEST OF THE RAIN SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES SUN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT BY THE EAST OF THE
AREA. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MUCH DRIER DAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL LIKELY START WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE SKY MAY BRIGHTEN UP SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE DAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT SOME MON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 50S WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTH TO POSSIBLY
TOP 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH DOMINATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.
WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS IN LOWER CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR MUCH OF TIME INTO MON MORNING IN LOW
STRATUS...RAIN & FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY MON
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: RESIDUAL SE SWELL FROM LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH SEA/SWELL 6-8 FT INTO SUN
EVENING. THE SEA/SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NIGHT
AND REMAIN SUB ADVISORY MON-TUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
[top]
000
FXUS61 KGYX 250435
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND STALL THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR CAPE COD AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH INTO LABRADOR ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP FCST UP TO DATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
COLD AIR RUSHING IN ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE
TO A MIX IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT.
PREV UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW HAVING SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE COAST WATERS AS OF 0230Z. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE NEW ENG COASTLINE
THEREAFTER...WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR CAPE COD THIS
EVENING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL PICKING UP WELL ON CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS MODEL DEPICTS MORE AREAS OF
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD AIR RUSHING INTO THE MTNS FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THIS STORM WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MAY
26TH 1967 EVENT.
HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL
BECOME RATHER GUSTY FOR ANY HIKERS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWEST MAINE AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN MID COAST AND CENTRAL MAINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR LOW PRESSURE TO GET SPUN UP OVERNIGHT SO THIS BREAK MAY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE FOR THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
850 OVER-RUNNING GETS GOING IN EARNEST ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
12Z MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND
COMING INTO LINE WITH LAST NIGHT 00Z ECMWF. 24 HOUR QPF FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5
INCHES THROUGH 00Z SUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...DOESN`T APPEAR
FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE BREAK IN THE ACTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT ITSELF...SO HOLDING
OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
GULF OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BUT
ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THAT THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY
BRIEF. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE GREENS OF VERMONT
AND THE DACKS. WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING
IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL AND SFC LOWS LIFTING NE ON SUNDAY WITH STEADIER PRCP
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE AND LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. ANY LEFTOVER
SHRA ENDING SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS LIKE FAIR WX NOW WITH SYSTEM PULLING OUT FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NE. STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME LEFTOVER
MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE N/MT
ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPING NW SFC WINDS. MIGHT SEE AN ISOLD SHRA IN
THE N/MT ZONES OTRW NO PRCP EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY.
HIGH PRES AND UPR LVL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE UPR LVL RIDGE HOLDS 0N OVER THE ERN U.S. BUT A SERIES OF WEAK
UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS DRIVE THRU THE RIDGE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS FORMS A WRM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S THAT
LIFTS N AND WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT SHRA
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE UPR LVL RIDGE BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE E COAST THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVES EXIT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WRM AIR TO CONT
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT PSBL SHRA DUE TO WRM
FNT MOVING THRU.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM/MET/MAV/HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5 THEN GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR TO PSBL IFR IN SHRA
THAT WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NGT. MAINLY VFR
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED SCA TO GO RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS DROP OFF AT SOME POINT...WAVES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE...WITH GREATER SEAS OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
PSBL SUNDAY THRU MOST OF SUNDAY NGT THEN HIGH PRES DROPS
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KCAR 250245
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1045 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 2230L: SLOW MVG COLD FRONTAL BNDRY NOW RGT ON OUR FAR SERN
BORDER W/ MOST ALL OF THE CWA NOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...
SLUG OF RAIN MVG INTO AND OUT OF THE AREA ATTM AS WEAK SFC WAVE
LIFTS NE OF THE AREA W/ PRECIP EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN FROM S TO
N LATER TNGT/ERLY SUN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRES LIFTS NNE FROM
NR CAPE COD. PRECIP AMOUNTS OVR THE LAST 2 DAYS NOW GENERALLY BTWN 1 AND
2 INCHES W/ LOWEST AMOUNTS BTWN .5 AND 1.0 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FAR N. A FEW FASTER RESPONDING RVRS CONT TO SLOWLY RISE
BUT WELL BLO ACTION STAGES ATTM. VRY CHILLY AND WET PTRN CONTS
THRU THE WEEKEND W/ SIGNIFICANT WARMING DRYING UNLIKELY TIL EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW SOME DECREASE NXT FEW HRS
PER LATEST TRENDS AND THEN INCREASE POPS AGAIN LATE TNGT THRU
SAT. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS WHICH WERE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TOO WARM.
UPDATE 1830L: SLOW MVG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU ALL BUT OUR FAR
SERN CORNER ATTM... WEAK SFC WAVES LIFTING NEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY
CONT TO PRODUCE WDSPRD LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST AREAS HAVE RCVD FROM ABOUT .75-1.5 INCHES LAST 2 DAYS
W/ PLENTY STILL TO COME. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THRU THE EVE HRS
AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY FCST TO MV INTO SERN NB AND THEN BECOME NRLY
STATIONARY AS A STRONGER LOW LIFTS NEWRD UP THIS FRONT ON SAT. WET
CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN W/ SOME DRYING PSBL BY LATER MON.
MONITORING AREA RIVERS FOR PROBLEMS BUT AS THEM PRECIP THUS FAR HAS
BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A PROLONGED PD...NO MAJOR CONCERNS ATTM.
FASTER RESPONDING SMALLER STREAMS/RIVERS ALL ON THE RISE ATTM BUT
ALL WELL BLO ACTION STAGE ATTM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FCST NEEDED...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING
NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND CUTOFF
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS
SYSTEM KEEPING RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND
WEST TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE SAT EVENING AND TRACK INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
SUN EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON MEMORIAL
DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP IT QUITE COOL AND
WET SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. THE STEADIEST OF THE RAIN SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES SUN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT BY THE EAST OF THE
AREA. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MUCH DRIER DAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL LIKELY START WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE SKY MAY BRIGHTEN UP SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE DAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT SOME MON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 50S WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTH TO POSSIBLY
TOP 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH DOMINATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.
WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS IN LOWER CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR MUCH OF TIME INTO MON MORNING IN LOW
STRATUS...RAIN & FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY MON
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: RESIDUAL SE SWELL FROM LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH SEA/SWELL 6-8 FT INTO SUN
EVENING. THE SEA/SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NIGHT
AND REMAIN SUB ADVISORY MON-TUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/DUDA/CB
000
FXUS61 KGYX 250235
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND STALL THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR CAPE COD AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH INTO LABRADOR ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW HAVING SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE COAST WATERS AS OF 0230Z. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE NEW ENG COASTLINE
THEREAFTER...WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR CAPE COD THIS
EVENING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL PICKING UP WELL ON CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS MODEL DEPICTS MORE AREAS OF
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD AIR RUSHING INTO THE MTNS FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THIS STORM WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MAY
26TH 1967 EVENT.
HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL
BECOME RATHER GUSTY FOR ANY HIKERS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWEST MAINE AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN MID COAST AND CENTRAL MAINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR LOW PRESSURE TO GET SPUN UP OVERNIGHT SO THIS BREAK MAY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE FOR THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
850 OVER-RUNNING GETS GOING IN EARNEST ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
12Z MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND
COMING INTO LINE WITH LAST NIGHT 00Z ECMWF. 24 HOUR QPF FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5
INCHES THROUGH 00Z SUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...DOESN`T APPEAR
FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE BREAK IN THE ACTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT ITSELF...SO HOLDING
OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
GULF OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BUT
ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THAT THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY
BRIEF. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE GREENS OF VERMONT
AND THE DACKS. WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING
IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL AND SFC LOWS LIFTING NE ON SUNDAY WITH STEADIER PRCP
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE AND LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. ANY LEFTOVER
SHRA ENDING SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS LIKE FAIR WX NOW WITH SYSTEM PULLING OUT FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NE. STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME LEFTOVER
MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE N/MT
ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPING NW SFC WINDS. MIGHT SEE AN ISOLD SHRA IN
THE N/MT ZONES OTRW NO PRCP EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY.
HIGH PRES AND UPR LVL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE UPR LVL RIDGE HOLDS 0N OVER THE ERN U.S. BUT A SERIES OF WEAK
UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS DRIVE THRU THE RIDGE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS FORMS A WRM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S THAT
LIFTS N AND WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT SHRA
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE UPR LVL RIDGE BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE E COAST THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVES EXIT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WRM AIR TO CONT
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT PSBL SHRA DUE TO WRM
FNT MOVING THRU.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM/MET/MAV/HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5 THEN GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR TO PSBL IFR IN SHRA
THAT WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NGT. MAINLY VFR
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED SCA TO GO RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS DROP OFF AT SOME POINT...WAVES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE...WITH GREATER SEAS OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
PSBL SUNDAY THRU MOST OF SUNDAY NGT THEN HIGH PRES DROPS
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.COASTAL SPLASH-OVER...
VERY MINOR EFFECTS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR SHORTLY.
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MEZ023>028.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC
000
FXUS61 KGYX 250004
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
804 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND STALL THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR CAPE COD AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH INTO LABRADOR ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH THE COLD
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE COAST WATERS AS OF 00Z. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE NEW ENG COASTLINE
THEREAFTER...WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR CAPE COD THIS
EVENING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL PICKING UP WELL ON CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS MODEL DEPICTS MORE AREAS OF
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AFTER A BREAK IN THE
ACTION LATER THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD AIR RUSHING INTO THE MTNS FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THIS STORM WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MAY
26TH 1967 EVENT.
HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL
BECOME RATHER GUSTY FOR ANY HIKERS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWEST MAINE AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN MID COAST AND CENTRAL MAINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR LOW PRESSURE TO GET SPUN UP OVERNIGHT SO THIS BREAK MAY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE FOR THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
850 OVER-RUNNING GETS GOING IN EARNEST ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
12Z MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND
COMING INTO LINE WITH LAST NIGHT 00Z ECMWF. 24 HOUR QPF FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5
INCHES THROUGH 00Z SUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...DOESN`T APPEAR
FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE BREAK IN THE ACTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT ITSELF...SO HOLDING
OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
GULF OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BUT
ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THAT THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY
BRIEF. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE GREENS OF VERMONT
AND THE DACKS. WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING
IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL AND SFC LOWS LIFTING NE ON SUNDAY WITH STEADIER PRCP
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE AND LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. ANY LEFTOVER
SHRA ENDING SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS LIKE FAIR WX NOW WITH SYSTEM PULLING OUT FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NE. STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME LEFTOVER
MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE N/MT
ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPING NW SFC WINDS. MIGHT SEE AN ISOLD SHRA IN
THE N/MT ZONES OTRW NO PRCP EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY.
HIGH PRES AND UPR LVL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE UPR LVL RIDGE HOLDS 0N OVER THE ERN U.S. BUT A SERIES OF WEAK
UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS DRIVE THRU THE RIDGE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS FORMS A WRM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S THAT
LIFTS N AND WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT SHRA
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE UPR LVL RIDGE BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE E COAST THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVES EXIT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WRM AIR TO CONT
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT PSBL SHRA DUE TO WRM
FNT MOVING THRU.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM/MET/MAV/HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5 THEN GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR TO PSBL IFR IN SHRA
THAT WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NGT. MAINLY VFR
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED SCA TO GO RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS DROP OFF AT SOME POINT...WAVES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE...WITH GREATER SEAS OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
PSBL SUNDAY THRU MOST OF SUNDAY NGT THEN HIGH PRES DROPS
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MEZ023>028.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC
000
FXUS61 KCAR 242238
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
638 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 1830L: SLOW MVG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU ALL BUT OUR FAR
SERN CORNER ATTM... WEAK SFC WAVES LIFTING NEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY
CONT TO PRODUCE WDSPRD LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST AREAS HAVE RCVD FROM ABOUT .75-1.5 INCHES LAST 2 DAYS
W/ PLENTY STILL TO COME. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THRU THE EVE HRS
AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY FCST TO MV INTO SERN NB AND THEN BECOME NRLY
STATIONARY AS A STRONGER LOW LIFTS NEWRD UP THIS FRONT ON SAT. WET
CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN W/ SOME DRYING PSBL BY LATER MON.
MONITORING AREA RIVERS FOR PROBLEMS BUT AS THEM PRECIP THUS FAR HAS
BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A PROLONGED PD...NO MAJOR CONCERNS ATTM.
FASTER RESPONDING SMALLER STREAMS/RIVERS ALL ON THE RISE ATTM BUT
ALL WELL BLO ACTION STAGE ATTM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FCST NEEDED...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING
NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND CUTOFF
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS
SYSTEM KEEPING RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND
WEST TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE SAT EVENING AND TRACK INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
SUN EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON MEMORIAL
DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP IT QUITE COOL AND
WET SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. THE STEADIEST OF THE RAIN SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES SUN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT BY THE EAST OF THE
AREA. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MUCH DRIER DAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL LIKELY START WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE SKY MAY BRIGHTEN UP SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE DAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT SOME MON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 50S WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTH TO POSSIBLY
TOP 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH DOMINATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.
WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS IN LOWER CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR MUCH OF TIME INTO MON MORNING IN LOW
STRATUS...RAIN & FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY MON
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: RESIDUAL SE SWELL FROM LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH SEA/SWELL 6-8 FT INTO SUN
EVENING. THE SEA/SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NIGHT
AND REMAIN SUB ADVISORY MON-TUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/DUDA/CB
000
FXUS61 KGYX 242130
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
530 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND STALL THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR CAPE COD AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH INTO LABRADOR ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH THE COLD
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE COASTLINE AS OF 21Z. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE NEW ENG COASTLINE THEREAFTER...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR CAPE COD THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL PICKING UP WELL ON CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS MODEL DEPICTS MORE AREAS OF
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AFTER A BREAK IN THE
ACTION LATER THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD AIR RUSHING INTO THE MTNS FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THIS STORM WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MAY
26TH 1967 EVENT.
HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL
BECOME RATHER GUSTY FOR ANY HIKERS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWEST MAINE AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN MID COAST AND CENTRAL MAINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR LOW PRESSURE TO GET SPUN UP OVERNIGHT SO THIS BREAK MAY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE FOR THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
850 OVER-RUNNING GETS GOING IN EARNEST ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
12Z MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND
COMING INTO LINE WITH LAST NIGHT 00Z ECMWF. 24 HOUR QPF FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5
INCHES THROUGH 00Z SUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...DOESN`T APPEAR
FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE BREAK IN THE ACTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT ITSELF...SO HOLDING
OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
GULF OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BUT
ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THAT THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY
BRIEF. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE GREENS OF VERMONT
AND THE DACKS. WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING
IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL AND SFC LOWS LIFTING NE ON SUNDAY WITH STEADIER PRCP
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE AND LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. ANY LEFTOVER
SHRA ENDING SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS LIKE FAIR WX NOW WITH SYSTEM PULLING OUT FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NE. STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME LEFTOVER
MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE N/MT
ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPING NW SFC WINDS. MIGHT SEE AN ISOLD SHRA IN
THE N/MT ZONES OTRW NO PRCP EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY.
HIGH PRES AND UPR LVL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE UPR LVL RIDGE HOLDS 0N OVER THE ERN U.S. BUT A SERIES OF WEAK
UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS DRIVE THRU THE RIDGE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS FORMS A WRM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S THAT
LIFTS N AND WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT SHRA
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE UPR LVL RIDGE BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE E COAST THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVES EXIT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WRM AIR TO CONT
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT PSBL SHRA DUE TO WRM
FNT MOVING THRU.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM/MET/MAV/HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5 THEN GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR TO PSBL IFR IN SHRA
THAT WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NGT. MAINLY VFR
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED SCA TO GO RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS DROP OFF AT SOME POINT...WAVES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE...WITH GREATER SEAS OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
PSBL SUNDAY THRU MOST OF SUNDAY NGT THEN HIGH PRES DROPS
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
CANNON
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241938
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
338 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING
NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND CUTOFF
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS
SYSTEM KEEPING RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND
WEST TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE SAT EVENING AND TRACK INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
SUN EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON MEMORIAL
DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP IT QUITE COOL AND
WET SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. THE STEADIEST OF THE RAIN SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES SUN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT BY THE EAST OF THE
AREA. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MUCH DRIER DAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL LIKELY START WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE SKY MAY BRIGHTEN UP SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE DAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT SOME MON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 50S WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTH TO POSSIBLY
TOP 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH DOMINATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.
WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
HYDRO...RAINFALL IN MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
HAS SURPASSED AN INCH OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. THE RECENT RAINFALL
HAS RETURNED FLOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RISES NOTED ON THE ST JOHN AND BIG BLACK. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL WITHIN BANK RISES THIS WEEKEND. SOME OF THE RIVERS
IN NW MAINE MAY COME CLOSE TO BANKFULL AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE WATER LEVELS CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS IN LOWER CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR MUCH OF TIME INTO MON MORNING IN LOW
STRATUS...RAIN & FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY MON
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: RESIDUAL SE SWELL FROM LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH SEA/SWELL 6-8 FT INTO SUN
EVENING. THE SEA/SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NIGHT
AND REMAIN SUB ADVISORY MON-TUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
000
FXUS61 KGYX 241859
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND STALL THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR CAPE COD AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH INTO LABRADOR ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHWEST MAINE AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN MID COAST AND CENTRAL MAINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR LOW PRESSURE TO GET SPUN UP OVERNIGHT SO THIS BREAK MAY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE FOR THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
850 OVER-RUNNING GETS GOING IN EARNEST ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
12Z MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND
COMING INTO LINE WITH LAST NIGHT 00Z ECMWF. 24 HOUR QPF FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5
INCHES THROUGH 00Z SUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...DOESN`T APPEAR
FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE BREAK IN THE ACTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT ITSELF...SO HOLDING
OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
GULF OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BUT
ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THAT THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY
BRIEF. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE GREENS OF VERMONT
AND THE DACKS. WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING
IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL AND SFC LOWS LIFTING NE ON SUNDAY WITH STEADIER PRCP
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE AND LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. ANY LEFTOVER
SHRA ENDING SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS LIKE FAIR WX NOW WITH SYSTEM PULLING OUT FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NE. STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME LEFTOVER
MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE N/MT
ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPING NW SFC WINDS. MIGHT SEE AN ISOLD SHRA IN
THE N/MT ZONES OTRW NO PRCP EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY.
HIGH PRES AND UPR LVL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE UPR LVL RIDGE HOLDS 0N OVER THE ERN U.S. BUT A SERIES OF WEAK
UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS DRIVE THRU THE RIDGE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS FORMS A WRM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S THAT
LIFTS N AND WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT SHRA
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE UPR LVL RIDGE BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE E COAST THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVES EXIT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WRM AIR TO CONT
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT PSBL SHRA DUE TO WRM
FNT MOVING THRU.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM/MET/MAV/HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5 THEN GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR TO PSBL IFR IN SHRA
THAT WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NGT. MAINLY VFR
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
PSBL SUNDAY THRU MOST OF SUNDAY NGT THEN HIGH PRES DROPS
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241659
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1255 PM UPDATE: LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY BETWEEN HUL AND MLT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN GOING ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THE DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES
WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS FRONT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST. SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN. PWATS ARE GENERALLY 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. NONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES ARE VERY STRONG SO EXPECT ANY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO MAINLY BE AN EFFECT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT RATHER THAN A COMPLEX OF
STORMS, IN FACT LITTLE OR NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE
RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT THAT
COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S TODAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A VERY
RAINY AND COOL WEEKEND TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCES BEING IN SPECIFIC DETAILS SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF DURING SPECIFIC PERIODS. GENERALLY, UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR THE FORECAST BUT WEIGHTED THE BLEND A BIT HEAVIER TOWARD
THE GEM AND GFS.
FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT, HEAVIEST AND
STEADIEST NORTH AND WEST, AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH
ALONG THE MAINE COAST. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE LOW CONTINUES
DRIFTING NORTH AND MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO SET UP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. EXPECT GENERAL RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY TO GENERALLY BE AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH EXCEPT A BIT LESS ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TENDING TO SHIFT WITH TIME OVER THE
PERIOD NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES. ONLY EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S, COOLEST NORTH AND WEST AND WARMEST SOUTH AND EAST, WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
NIGHT BUT MONDAY WILL STILL BE COOL AND GRAY WITH LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN
FOR TUESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY RAISE TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. CIGS/VSBY
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF FOG. BY MONDAY CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR BY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THE SWELL
TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HOLD ON
TO THE SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS TRANSITIONED TO SCA FOR SEAS ALONE.
OTHERWISE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN/FOG.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER EXPECT THE SWELL
TO PERSIST RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH SEAS THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/RUNYAN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...DUDA/RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...DUDA/RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241427
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1027 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE: LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY BETWEEN PQI AND HUL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN GOING ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THE
DAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES NORTH OF
THE FRONT WHERE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S.
ALSO...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS THERE IS A
925 MB JET WORKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE BUMPED WINDS SPEEDS THERE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
NORTHEAST OF THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS FRONT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST. SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN. PWATS ARE GENERALLY 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. NONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES ARE VERY STRONG SO EXPECT ANY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO MAINLY BE AN EFFECT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT RATHER THAN A COMPLEX OF
STORMS, IN FACT LITTLE OR NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE
RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT THAT
COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S TODAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A VERY
RAINY AND COOL WEEKEND TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCES BEING IN SPECIFIC DETAILS SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF DURING SPECIFIC PERIODS. GENERALLY, UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR THE FORECAST BUT WEIGHTED THE BLEND A BIT HEAVIER TOWARD
THE GEM AND GFS.
FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT, HEAVIEST AND
STEADIEST NORTH AND WEST, AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH
ALONG THE MAINE COAST. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE LOW CONTINUES
DRIFTING NORTH AND MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO SET UP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. EXPECT GENERAL RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY TO GENERALLY BE AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH EXCEPT A BIT LESS ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TENDING TO SHIFT WITH TIME OVER THE
PERIOD NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES. ONLY EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S, COOLEST NORTH AND WEST AND WARMEST SOUTH AND EAST, WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
NIGHT BUT MONDAY WILL STILL BE COOL AND GRAY WITH LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN
FOR TUESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY RAISE TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. CIGS/VSBY
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF FOG. BY MONDAY CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR BY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THE SWELL
TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HOLD ON
TO THE SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS TRANSITIONED TO SCA FOR SEAS ALONE.
OTHERWISE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN/FOG.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER EXPECT THE SWELL
TO PERSIST RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH SEAS THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/RUNYAN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...DUDA/RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...DUDA/RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241053
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
653 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE: NO CHANGES MADE.
THE FORECAST HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE
BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN. PWATS ARE GENERALLY 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. NONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES ARE VERY STRONG SO EXPECT ANY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO MAINLY BE AN EFFECT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT RATHER THAN A COMPLEX OF
STORMS, IN FACT LITTLE OR NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE
RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT THAT
COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S TODAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A VERY
RAINY AND COOL WEEKEND TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCES BEING IN SPECIFIC DETAILS SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF DURING SPECIFIC PERIODS. GENERALLY, UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR THE FORECAST BUT WEIGHTED THE BLEND A BIT HEAVIER TOWARD
THE GEM AND GFS.
FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT, HEAVIEST AND
STEADIEST NORTH AND WEST, AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH
ALONG THE MAINE COAST. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE LOW CONTINUES
DRIFTING NORTH AND MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO SET UP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. EXPECT GENERAL RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY TO GENERALLY BE AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH EXCEPT A BIT LESS ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TENDING TO SHIFT WITH TIME OVER THE
PERIOD NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES. ONLY EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S, COOLEST NORTH AND WEST AND WARMEST SOUTH AND EAST, WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
NIGHT BUT MONDAY WILL STILL BE COOL AND GRAY WITH LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN
FOR TUESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY RAISE TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. CIGS/VSBY
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF FOG. BY MONDAY CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR BY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THE SWELL
TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HOLD ON
TO THE SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS TRANSITIONED TO SCA FOR SEAS ALONE.
OTHERWISE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN/FOG.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER EXPECT THE SWELL
TO PERSIST RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH SEAS THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RUNYAN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 240922
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
522 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE
BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN. PWATS ARE GENERALLY 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. NONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES ARE VERY STRONG SO EXPECT ANY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO MAINLY BE AN EFFECT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT RATHER THAN A COMPLEX OF
STORMS, IN FACT LITTLE OR NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE
RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT THAT
COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S TODAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A VERY
RAINY AND COOL WEEKEND TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE
DIFFERENCES BEING IN SPECIFIC DETAILS SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF DURING SPECIFIC PERIODS. GENERALLY, UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR THE FORECAST BUT WEIGHTED THE BLEND A BIT HEAVIER TOWARD
THE GEM AND GFS.
FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT, HEAVIEST AND
STEADIEST NORTH AND WEST, AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH
ALONG THE MAINE COAST. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE LOW CONTINUES
DRIFTING NORTH AND MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO SET UP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. EXPECT GENERAL RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY TO GENERALLY BE AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH EXCEPT A BIT LESS ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TENDING TO SHIFT WITH TIME OVER THE
PERIOD NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES. ONLY EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S, COOLEST NORTH AND WEST AND WARMEST SOUTH AND EAST, WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
NIGHT BUT MONDAY WILL STILL BE COOL AND GRAY WITH LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN
FOR TUESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY RAISE TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. CIGS/VSBY
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF FOG. BY MONDAY CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR BY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THE SWELL
TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HOLD ON
TO THE SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS TRANSITIONED TO SCA FOR SEAS ALONE.
OTHERWISE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN/FOG.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER EXPECT THE SWELL
TO PERSIST RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH SEAS THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RUNYAN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...RUNYAN/FITZSIMMONS
000
FXUS61 KGYX 240811
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
411 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT AND CRAWL
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
TRACKS N OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVIEST RAFL TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS
BETWEEN THE PRE-DAWN AND ABOUT MIDDAY. COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
QPF WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN THIS TIME FRAME...AS WARM MOIST
PLUME SQUEEZES IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE W.
GOOD LOW-MID-LVL WINDS ACCOMPANY THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
WITH WIND FLOW LINED UP VERTICALLY WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AS WELL.
BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE...REMOVING THE
LOW LVL FOCUS FOR SHRA...AND THE AIR WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE...AT LEAST OCCNLY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE
LESS INTENSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS START TO
FALL BY MIDDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED...PROBABLY JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS
500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR S. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FORMATION OF
SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT S OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE N...ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY....WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST SAT MORNING. SAT WILL BE COOL AS THE LOW
PULLS IN AIR FROM THE N...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR NE FLOW LOW LEVEL JET TO FIRE UP LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT...WHICH GOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH THIS TYPE OF EVENT WILL HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS
FOR MARINE INTERESTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING OUR WEATHER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CUTOFF LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH INTO THE SYSTEM HEAVY RAIN FROM TIE TO TIME CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO FALL IN THE INTERIOR AS BOT THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO COASTAL REGIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS +16 AT 850 THURSDAY AND +18 BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG CAN EXPECT EXTENDED
PERIOD OF IFR...OR LOWER AT TIMES...RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PROBABLY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. KCON/KLEB/KHIE COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR /ESEPCIALLY KHIE/ TODAY...BUT IT IS LIKELY THESE TERMINALS
WILL FALL BACK TO IFR AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SAT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR/LIFR SATURDAY THRU MUCH
OF SUNDAY...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WILL
PROB NEED TO EB EXTENDED INTO SAT AND EVEN SAT NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISHING A LITTLE BIT TODAY...AND WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SCA
WINDS...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-7 FT IN GENERAL. WATCHING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IT WILL LKLY PRODUCE SCA
WINDS...WITH AN SMALL CHANCE THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BY MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WILL BE WATCHING RIVERS AND STREAMS THE NEXT 3 DAYS. WE HAVE SEEN
SOME SHARP RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NORTHERN NH WHERE 1.5 TO
2 INCHES FELL EARLIER TODAY. THE CONNECTICUT AT NORTH STRATFORD IS
CRESTING ABOUT NOW BUT WILL RISE AGAIN LATER TODAY AS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH IN SE NH AND SW MAINE THERE
IS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. AUTOMATED
RAIN GAUGES IN THE AREA ARE SHOWING ABOUT ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF AN
INCH PER HOUR WITH THIS BAND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...CEMPA/HAWLEY
MARINE...CEMPA/HAWLEY
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA
HYDROLOGY...HAWLEY
000
FXUS61 KCAR 240525
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
125 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UDATE: ADJUSTED TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BASED ON LATEST DATA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE 2220L: SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY CONTS TO SLOWLY MV EWRD INTO
FAR WRN/NWRN AREAS ATTM... MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIP JUST AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE NOTED NO
CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN PUR CWA LAST FEW HRS. MAIN CONCERN THRU THE
OVRNGT AND FRI AM HRS WILL BE PRECIP AMOUNTS AS THIS SLOW MVG
FRONTAL BNDRY...ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WAVES TRACKING NEWRD ALONG
IT...SLOWLY SHIFTS EWRD. SO FAR...HYDROMET SHOWS MOST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FAR W AND NW BTWN .5 AND 1.0 SO FAR AND THIS MATCHES UP
WELL W/ OUR QPF FCSTS THRU 06Z. FCST IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM THO DID
CHANGEPATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS SRN AREAS AND OUT OVR
THE WATERS.
UPDATE 1910L: BROAD LOW PRES TROF W/ ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY XTNDS NE-SW FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VLY DOWN ACROSS NYS...
NUMEROUS WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY AND RESULTING
IN A RATHER SLOW EWRD MVMNT... MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS W/ SOME VRY ISOLD
THUNDER ACROSS OUR WRN/NWRN AREAS ATTM W/ LESSER ACTION TO THE S AND
E. CONVECTION HAVING A TUF TIME HOLDING ON AS DEEP MARINE LAYER
EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION W/ A COOL MOIST SRLY FLOW IN PLACE.
WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLD THUNDER WRN HALF OF THE FA NXT SEVERAL HRS
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION W/ THE BEST AREA OF
PRECIP NOW ACROSS WRN AND NWRN AREAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING E AND SE
THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. CURRENT FCST SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE
ON THINGS W/ NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WARRANTED ATTM.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LGTNG STRIKES CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW PARALLELS THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONES SETS UP ACROSS STATE AND THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE INCH
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COOL AND WET MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FRI EVENING
AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. A SFC LOW
FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI
EVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR HIGHS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...BUT DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT
SHAPING UP TO BE THE NICEST WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALIZED WITH GMOS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DOWNEAST MAINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHERE IT STALLS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS
UNTIL DAY 7 WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A RAPIDLY INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR TO AT TIMES LOW END MVFR
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN IN AREAS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE & FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAND AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: AS LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MAINE SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS LIKELY SAT. THE WIND MAY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT SUN AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS...BUT SEAS MAY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR A SCA TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/DUDA/NRR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/DUDA/CB
000
FXUS61 KGYX 240418
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1218 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL STALL OFF
THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH
OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
THROUGH THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
1205 AM...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS A BIT
OVERNIGHT...AND TO FOCUS ON BEST CH OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME AS 500 MB SH COMBINES WITH MID-LVL JET AND HIGH
PWATS...APPROACHING 200% OF NORMAL COM TO TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A
SURGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LKLY
AFFECT MORNING COMMUTE. 00Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR FOCUS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE THE GROUND CAN HANDLE IT
BETTER. HOWEVER...COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED PROBLEMS...PONDING ON
THE ROADS AND IN URBAN AREAS.
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR CONTS TO
SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE WE
HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY. OVER SRN NH...THE ECHOES CONT TO
WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD NORTH...DESPITE A PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVEL
AXIS OF 1.6" OVER THE REGION.
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO SHOW PCPN STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG.
EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
WHICH REMAINS WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A WET AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS MARINE LAYER PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF MAINE. CAN`T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST AFTER THIS EVENING. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CONTINUES FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. FOCUS WILL
TURN TO AREA RIVERS IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE STORM TOTALS COULD
WILL FALL IN THE THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY LATE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CUTOFF AND SFC LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU THE WEEKEND
CONTINUING PRCP ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING MAX QPF ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES TO WRN NH
ZONES. GFS MUCH HIGHER ON QPF...WITH OTHER MODELS PREFERRED. USED
HPC QPF FOR A COMPROMISE. CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS MOVE NE OF THE AREA
MONDAY WITH IMPROVING WX...BUT STILL COOL AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH FAIRLY AMPLE RH COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND
PSBL -SHRA EVEN ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC.
AN UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN TUESDAY FINALLY BRINGING DRY WX
WITH WARMING TEMPS. AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF SLIDES E THRU THE
UPR LVL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT...BRINGING ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NGT AND THURSDAY.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM, MET/MAV & HPC QPF FOR DAYS 4
AND 5 THEN A BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, MEX/ECE FOR THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR/LIFR SATURDAY THRU MUCH
OF SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH PSBL MVFR ON MONDAY THEN VFR
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NE WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW AND SEAS LIKELY AT SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA THRU THE DAY. WINDS LET UP AND BACK TO THE
NW SLOWLY SATURDAY NGT THRU MONDAY...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY LATE SATURDAY NGT OR EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO DROP OFF. HIGH PRES PROVIDES RELATIVELY CALMER WINDS AND SEAS
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KCAR 240230
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 2220L: SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY CONTS TO SLOWLY MV EWRD INTO
FAR WRN/NWRN AREAS ATTM... MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIP JUST AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE NOTED NO
CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN PUR CWA LAST FEW HRS. MAIN CONCERN THRU THE
OVRNGT AND FRI AM HRS WILL BE PRECIP AMOUNTS AS THIS SLOW MVG
FRONTAL BNDRY...ENHANCED BY WEAK SFC WAVES TRACKING NEWRD ALONG
IT...SLOWLY SHIFTS EWRD. SO FAR...HYDROMET SHOWS MOST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FAR W AND NW BTWN .5 AND 1.0 SO FAR AND THIS MATCHES UP
WELL W/ OUR QPF FCSTS THRU 06Z. FCST IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM THO DID
CHANGEPATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS SRN AREAS AND OUT OVR
THE WATERS.
UPDATE 1910L: BROAD LOW PRES TROF W/ ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY XTNDS NE-SW FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VLY DOWN ACROSS NYS... NUMEROUS
WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY AND RESULTING IN A
RATHER SLOW EWRD MVMNT... MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS W/ SOME VRY ISOLD
THUNDER ACROSS OUR WRN/NWRN AREAS ATTM W/ LESSER ACTION TO THE S
AND E. CONVECTION HAVING A TUF TIME HOLDING ON AS DEEP MARINE
LAYER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION W/ A COOL MOIST SRLY FLOW
IN PLACE. WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLD THUNDER WRN HALF OF THE FA NXT
SEVERAL HRS OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION W/ THE
BEST AREA OF PRECIP NOW ACROSS WRN AND NWRN AREAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING E AND SE THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. CURRENT FCST SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS W/ NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WARRANTED
ATTM.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LGTNG STRIKES CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW PARALLELS THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONES SETS UP ACROSS STATE AND THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE INCH
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COOL AND WET MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FRI EVENING
AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. A SFC LOW
FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI
EVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR HIGHS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...BUT DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT
SHAPING UP TO BE THE NICEST WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALIZED WITH GMOS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DOWNEAST MAINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHERE IT STALLS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS
UNTIL DAY 7 WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A RAPIDLY INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR TO AT TIMES LOW END MVFR
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN IN AREAS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE & FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAND AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: AS LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MAINE SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS LIKELY SAT. THE WIND MAY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT SUN AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS...BUT SEAS MAY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR A SCA TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/DUDA/CB
000
FXUS61 KGYX 240223
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1023 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL STALL OFF
THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH
OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
THROUGH THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR CONTS TO
SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE WE
HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY. OVER SRN NH...THE ECHOES CONT TO
WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD NORTH...DESPITE A PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVEL
AXIS OF 1.6" OVER THE REGION.
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO SHOW PCPN STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG.
EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
WHICH REMAINS WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A WET AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS MARINE LAYER PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF MAINE. CAN`T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST AFTER THIS EVENING. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CONTINUES FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. FOCUS WILL
TURN TO AREA RIVERS IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE STORM TOTALS COULD
WILL FALL IN THE THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY LATE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CUTOFF AND SFC LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU THE WEEKEND
CONTINUING PRCP ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING MAX QPF ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES TO WRN NH
ZONES. GFS MUCH HIGHER ON QPF...WITH OTHER MODELS PREFERRED. USED
HPC QPF FOR A COMPROMISE. CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS MOVE NE OF THE AREA
MONDAY WITH IMPROVING WX...BUT STILL COOL AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH FAIRLY AMPLE RH COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND
PSBL -SHRA EVEN ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC.
AN UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN TUESDAY FINALLY BRINGING DRY WX
WITH WARMING TEMPS. AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF SLIDES E THRU THE
UPR LVL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT...BRINGING ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NGT AND THURSDAY.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM, MET/MAV & HPC QPF FOR DAYS 4
AND 5 THEN A BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, MEX/ECE FOR THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR/LIFR SATURDAY THRU MUCH
OF SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH PSBL MVFR ON MONDAY THEN VFR
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NE WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW AND SEAS LIKELY AT SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA THRU THE DAY. WINDS LET UP AND BACK TO THE
NW SLOWLY SATURDAY NGT THRU MONDAY...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY LATE SATURDAY NGT OR EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO DROP OFF. HIGH PRES PROVIDES RELATIVELY CALMER WINDS AND SEAS
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 240054
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
854 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL STALL OFF
THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH
OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
THROUGH THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR CONTS TO
SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE WE
HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY. OVER SRN NH...THE ECHOES CONT TO
WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD NORTH...DESPITE A PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVEL
AXIS OF 1.6" OVER THE REGION.
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO SHOW PCPN STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A WET AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS MARINE LAYER PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF MAINE. CAN`T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST AFTER THIS EVENING. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CONTINUES FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. FOCUS WILL
TURN TO AREA RIVERS IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE STORM TOTALS COULD
WILL FALL IN THE THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY LATE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CUTOFF AND SFC LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU THE WEEKEND
CONTINUING PRCP ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING MAX QPF ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES TO WRN NH
ZONES. GFS MUCH HIGHER ON QPF...WITH OTHER MODELS PREFERRED. USED
HPC QPF FOR A COMPROMISE. CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS MOVE NE OF THE AREA
MONDAY WITH IMPROVING WX...BUT STILL COOL AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH FAIRLY AMPLE RH COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND
PSBL -SHRA EVEN ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC.
AN UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN TUESDAY FINALLY BRINGING DRY WX
WITH WARMING TEMPS. AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF SLIDES E THRU THE
UPR LVL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT...BRINGING ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NGT AND THURSDAY.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM, MET/MAV & HPC QPF FOR DAYS 4
AND 5 THEN A BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, MEX/ECE FOR THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR/LIFR SATURDAY THRU MUCH
OF SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH PSBL MVFR ON MONDAY THEN VFR
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NE WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW AND SEAS LIKELY AT SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA THRU THE DAY. WINDS LET UP AND BACK TO THE
NW SLOWLY SATURDAY NGT THRU MONDAY...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY LATE SATURDAY NGT OR EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO DROP OFF. HIGH PRES PROVIDES RELATIVELY CALMER WINDS AND SEAS
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 232313
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 1910L: BROAD LOW PRES TROF W/ ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY XTNDS NE-SW FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VLY DOWN ACROSS NYS... NUMEROUS
WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY AND RESULTING IN A
RATHER SLOW EWRD MVMNT... MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS W/ SOME VRY ISOLD
THUNDER ACROSS OUR WRN/NWRN AREAS ATTM W/ LESSER ACTION TO THE S
AND E. CONVECTION HAVING A TUF TIME HOLDING ON AS DEEP MARINE
LAYER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION W/ A COOL MOIST SRLY FLOW
IN PLACE. WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLD THUNDER WRN HALF OF THE FA NXT
SEVERAL HRS OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION W/ THE
BEST AREA OF PRECIP NOW ACROSS WRN AND NWRN AREAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING E AND SE THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. CURRENT FCST SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS W/ NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WARRANTED
ATTM.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LGTNG STRIKES CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW PARALLELS THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONES SETS UP ACROSS STATE AND THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE INCH
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COOL AND WET MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FRI EVENING
AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. A SFC LOW
FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI
EVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR HIGHS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...BUT DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT
SHAPING UP TO BE THE NICEST WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALIZED WITH GMOS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DOWNEAST MAINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHERE IT STALLS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS
UNTIL DAY 7 WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A RAPIDLY INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR TO AT TIMES LOW END MVFR
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN IN AREAS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE & FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAND AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: AS LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MAINE SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS LIKELY SAT. THE WIND MAY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT SUN AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS...BUT SEAS MAY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR A SCA TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...KHW/DUDA/CB
MARINE...KHW/DUDA/CB
000
FXUS61 KGYX 232045
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
445 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL STALL OFF
THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH
OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
THROUGH THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR CONTS TO
SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER SRN NH. THE ECHOES ARE
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS THEY HEAD NORTH INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF MAINE.
FLOOD ADVIS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AHEAD AND ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR PSBL FFWS AS ECHOES CONT TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS FROM SW TO NE.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A WET AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS MARINE LAYER PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF MAINE. CAN`T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST AFTER THIS EVENING. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CONTINUES FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. FOCUS WILL
TURN TO AREA RIVERS IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE STORM TOTALS COULD
WILL FALL IN THE THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY LATE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CUTOFF AND SFC LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU THE WEEKEND
CONTINUING PRCP ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING MAX QPF ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES TO WRN NH
ZONES. GFS MUCH HIGHER ON QPF...WITH OTHER MODELS PREFERRED. USED
HPC QPF FOR A COMPROMISE. CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS MOVE NE OF THE AREA
MONDAY WITH IMPROVING WX...BUT STILL COOL AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH FAIRLY AMPLE RH COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND
PSBL -SHRA EVEN ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC.
AN UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN TUESDAY FINALLY BRINGING DRY WX
WITH WARMING TEMPS. AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF SLIDES E THRU THE
UPR LVL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT...BRINGING ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NGT AND THURSDAY.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM, MET/MAV & HPC QPF FOR DAYS 4
AND 5 THEN A BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, MEX/ECE FOR THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR/LIFR SATURDAY THRU MUCH
OF SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH PSBL MVFR ON MONDAY THEN VFR
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NE WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW AND SEAS LIKELY AT SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA THRU THE DAY. WINDS LET UP AND BACK TO THE
NW SLOWLY SATURDAY NGT THRU MONDAY...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY LATE SATURDAY NGT OR EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO DROP OFF. HIGH PRES PROVIDES RELATIVELY CALMER WINDS AND SEAS
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 231941
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL STALL OFF
THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH
OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
THROUGH THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A WET AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS MARINE LAYER PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF MAINE. CAN`T RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST AFTER THIS EVENING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS DIPPING INTO
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CONTINUES FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. FOCUS WILL
TURN TO AREA RIVERS IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE STORM TOTALS COULD
WILL FALL IN THE THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY LATE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CUTOFF AND SFC LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU THE WEEKEND
CONTINUING PRCP ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING MAX QPF ACROSS THE N//MT ZONES TO WRN NH
ZONES. GFS MUCH HIGHER ON QPF...WITH OTHER MODELS PREFERRED. USED
HPC QPF FOR A COMPROMISE. CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS MOVE NE OF THE AREA
MONDAY WITH IMPROVING WX...BUT STILL COOL AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH FAIRLY AMPLE RH COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND
PSBL -SHRA EVEN ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC.
AN UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN TUESDAY FINALLY BRINGING DRY WX
WITH WARMING TEMPS. AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF SLIDES E THRU THE
UPR LVL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT...BRINGING ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NGT AND THURSDAY.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM, MET/MAV & HPC QPF FOR DAYS 4
AND 5 THEN A BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, MEX/ECE FOR THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR/LIFR SATURDAY THRU MUCH
OF SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH PSBL MVFR ON MONDAY THEN VFR
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NE WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW AND SEAS LIKELY AT SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA THRU THE DAY. WINDS LET UP AND BACK TO THE
NW SLOWLY SATURDAY NGT THRU MONDAY...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY LATE SATURDAY NGT OR EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO DROP OFF. HIGH PRES PROVIDES RELATIVELY CALMER WINDS AND SEAS
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231926
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
326 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LTNG STRIKES CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING EAST AS THE UPPER FLOW PARALLELS THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONES SETS UP ACROSS STATE AND THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE INCH
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COOL AND WET MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FRI EVENING
AND LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. A SFC LOW
FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI
EVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR HIGHS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...BUT DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS NOT
SHAPING UP TO BE THE NICEST WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALIZED WITH GMOS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DOWNEAST MAINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHERE IT STALLS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS
UNTIL DAY 7 WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A RAPIDLY INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR TO AT TIMES LOW END MVFR
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN IN AREAS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE & FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAND AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: AS LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MAINE SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS LIKELY SAT. THE WIND MAY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT SUN AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH OF THE
WATERS...BUT SEAS MAY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR A SCA TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
000
FXUS61 KGYX 231920
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
320 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL STALL OFF
THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH
OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
THROUGH THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A WET AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS MARINE LAYER PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF MAINE. CAN`T RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST AFTER THIS EVENING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS DIPPING INTO
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CONTINUES FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. FOCUS WILL
TURN TO AREA RIVERS IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE STORM TOTALS COULD
WILL FALL IN THE THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY LATE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CUTOFF AND SFC LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU THE WEEKEND
CONTINUING PRCP ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING MAX QPF ACROSS THE N//MT ZONES TO WRN NH
ZONES. GFS MUCH HIGHER ON QPF...WITH OTHER MODELS PREFERRED. USED
HPC QPF FOR A COMPROMISE. CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS MOVE NE OF THE AREA
MONDAY WITH IMPROVING WX...BUT STILL COOL AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH FAIRLY AMPLE RH COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND
PSBL -SHRA EVEN ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC.
AN UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN TUESDAY FINALLY BRINGING DRY WX
WITH WARMING TEMPS. AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF SLIDES E THRU THE
UPR LVL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT...BRINGING ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NGT AND THURSDAY.
GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM, MET/MAV & HPC QPF FOR DAYS 4
AND 5 THEN A BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, MEX/ECE FOR THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR/LIFR SATURDAY THRU MUCH
OF SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH PSBL MVFR ON MONDAY THEN VFR
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NE WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW AND SEAS LIKELY AT SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA THRU THE DAY. WINDS LET UP AND BACK TO THE
NW SLOWLY SATURDAY NGT THRU MONDAY...LIKELY DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY LATE SATURDAY NGT OR EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO DROP OFF. HIGH PRES PROVIDES RELATIVELY CALMER WINDS AND SEAS
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231651
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 3
TO 5 DEGREES F ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES ENTERING THE WESTERN
BORDER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE CONFINED TO THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE...
A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
QUEBEC WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
DURING THE DAY TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A
COLD FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT
PARALLELS THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES
OUT BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BEFORE SEEING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
DEPICT SB CAPES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG HOWEVER THE NAM
DEPICTS THIS ARE BEING LIMITED MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA.THERE IS ALSO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE DAY. THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC
BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AS THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BIGGEST
THREAT BY LATE IN THE DAY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. WORTH NOTING, 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THESE
AMOUNTS OVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE...NOW BEGINNING
TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN AREAS WHO WILL SEE LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC QPF GRIDS.
THINKING IS MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREA EXPERIENCING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COOL AND RAINY
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
MAINE MAY SEE A BIT OF A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .5 TO .75 IN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE...TO
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY
SLOWLY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE RAINY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER
THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN THE SOUTH TO LIFT TO IFR DURING THE
DAY BEFORE LIKELY GOING DOWN TO LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN AND FOG
DEVELOP. IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY AS BREAKS DEVELOP BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE DAY. ALSO WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING..MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT NEWRD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WDSPRD
IFR/MVFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWERS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF
FOG FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MV THROUGH THE WATERS
FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO LIFT NE
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA CONDS EXPECTED
INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE
WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
MARINE...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231356
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
956 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM UPDATE: THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF
VERMONT AND INTO WESTERN MASS. NORTH OF THE FRONT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY REAL CHANGES WERE
TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN
INTERPOLATED TO EXPECTED MAX TEMPS. ALSO..ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO
DOWNEAST MAINE WITH BOTH KBGR/KBHB SHOWING VISIBILITY LESS THAN 2SM
AND WEB CAMS SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TOWARD THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS AS IF ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE...
A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
QUEBEC WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
DURING THE DAY TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A
COLD FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT
PARALLELS THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES
OUT BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BEFORE SEEING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
DEPICT SB CAPES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG HOWEVER THE NAM
DEPICTS THIS ARE BEING LIMITED MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA.THERE IS ALSO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE DAY. THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC
BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AS THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BIGGEST
THREAT BY LATE IN THE DAY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. WORTH NOTING, 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THESE
AMOUNTS OVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE...NOW BEGINNING
TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN AREAS WHO WILL SEE LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC QPF GRIDS.
THINKING IS MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREA EXPERIENCING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COOL AND RAINY
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
MAINE MAY SEE A BIT OF A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .5 TO .75 IN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE...TO
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY
SLOWLY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE RAINY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER
THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN THE SOUTH TO LIFT TO IFR DURING THE
DAY BEFORE LIKELY GOING DOWN TO LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN AND FOG
DEVELOP. IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY AS BREAKS DEVELOP BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE DAY. ALSO WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING..MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT NEWRD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WDSPRD
IFR/MVFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWERS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF
FOG FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MV THROUGH THE WATERS
FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO LIFT NE
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA CONDS EXPECTED
INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE
WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
MARINE...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
000
FXUS61 KGYX 231109 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
709 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
REDEVELOPS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE AREA IS RAIN FREE WITH JUST A LITTLE DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ALSO ALONG THE COAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLIER HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA. A LINE OF CONVECTION IN VERMONT HAS BEEN WEAKENING
STEADILY AS IT MOVES INTO NH AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS NOW LOCATED FROM VERMONT INTO
MASSACHUSETTS. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH WARMER AIR WILL
INFILTRATE SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGHS IN THIS AREA
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY.
LLJ INCREASES TO 40-50 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AS
PER SPC...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DENSE CLOUD
COVER. THAT SAID...ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE NEEDED TO
BOOST INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS GOOD
WITH THE 40-50 KT JET IN PLACE.
PW VALUES JUMP TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WAS DECIDED
AGAINST AS RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN AS HIGH HERE AS IT HAS BEEN TO
OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY APPROACH FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN A FEW BASINS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TONIGHT`S LOWS AND
FRIDAY`S HIGHS ONLY DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD AND MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL START TO SLOW DOWN. NORTHEAST
FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN PLACE
OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM BECOMES PRETTY MUCH STACKED
OVER THE BENCHMARK BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A BREAK
FROM THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BEFORE ENTERING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SEEMINGLY...THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH JUST ABOUT EVERY RUN SO CLEARING THE GULF OF MAINE ON
MONDAY MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW EVEN MORE
THAN IT ALREADY HAS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS
LOW. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL DROP FURTHER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM AS A
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AND WAVES STAYING ABOVE CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP SEAS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW WITH RECENT RAINS KEEPING FUELS
MOIST. RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
HANES/POHL
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231043
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0640 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ALSO, DECIDED TO ADD FURTHER
ENHANCED WORDING TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MENTIONING SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC BORDER. ALSO MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE...
A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
QUEBEC WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
DURING THE DAY TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A
COLD FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT
PARALLELS THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES
OUT BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BEFORE SEEING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
DEPICT SB CAPES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG HOWEVER THE NAM
DEPICTS THIS ARE BEING LIMITED MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA.THERE IS ALSO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE DAY. THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC
BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AS THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BIGGEST
THREAT BY LATE IN THE DAY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. WORTH NOTING, 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THESE
AMOUNTS OVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE...NOW BEGINNING
TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN AREAS WHO WILL SEE LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC QPF GRIDS.
THINKING IS MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREA EXPERIENCING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COOL AND RAINY
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
MAINE MAY SEE A BIT OF A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .5 TO .75 IN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE...TO
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY
SLOWLY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE RAINY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER
THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN THE SOUTH TO LIFT TO IFR DURING THE
DAY BEFORE LIKELY GOING DOWN TO LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN AND FOG
DEVELOP. IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY AS BREAKS DEVELOP BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE DAY. ALSO WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING..MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT NEWRD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WDSPRD
IFR/MVFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWERS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF
FOG FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MV THROUGH THE WATERS
FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO LIFT NE
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA CONDS EXPECTED
INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE
WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 230839
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
439 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE...
A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
QUEBEC WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
DURING THE DAY TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A
COLD FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT
PARALLELS THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES
OUT BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BEFORE SEEING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
DEPICT SB CAPES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG HOWEVER THE NAM
DEPICTS THIS ARE BEING LIMITED MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA.THERE IS ALSO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE DAY. THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC
BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AS THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BIGGEST
THREAT BY LATE IN THE DAY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. WORTH NOTING, 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THESE
AMOUNTS OVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE...NOW BEGINNING
TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN AREAS WHO WILL SEE LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC QPF GRIDS.
THINKING IS MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREA EXPERIENCING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COOL AND RAINY
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
MAINE MAY SEE A BIT OF A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .5 TO .75 IN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE...TO
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY
SLOWLY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE RAINY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER
THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN THE SOUTH TO LIFT TO IFR DURING THE
DAY BEFORE LIKELY GOING DOWN TO LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN AND FOG
DEVELOP. IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY AS BREAKS DEVELOP BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE DAY. ALSO WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING..MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH.
SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT NEWRD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WDSPRD
IFR/MVFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWERS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF
FOG FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MV THROUGH THE WATERS
FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO LIFT NE
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA CONDS EXPECTED
INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE
WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
000
FXUS61 KGYX 230701
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
REDEVELOPS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLIER HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA. A LINE OF CONVECTION IN VERMONT HAS BEEN WEAKENING
STEADILY AS IT MOVES INTO NH AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS NOW LOCATED FROM VERMONT INTO
MASSACHUSETTS. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH WARMER AIR WILL
INFILTRATE SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGHS IN THIS AREA
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY.
LLJ INCREASES TO 40-50 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...JUST ENHANCED RAINFALL
AND RUN OF THE MILL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS GOOD
WITH THE 40-50 KT JET IN PLACE.
PW VALUES JUMP TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WAS DECIDED
AGAINST AS RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN AS HIGH HERE AS IT HAS BEEN TO
OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY APPROACH FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN A FEW BASINS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TONIGHT`S LOWS AND
FRIDAY`S HIGHS ONLY DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD AND MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL START TO SLOW DOWN. NORTHEAST
FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN PLACE
OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM BECOMES PRETTY MUCH STACKED
OVER THE BENCHMARK BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A BREAK
FROM THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BEFORE ENTERING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SEEMINGLY...THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH JUST ABOUT EVERY RUN SO CLEARING THE GULF OF MAINE ON
MONDAY MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW EVEN MORE
THAN IT ALREADY HAS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS
LOW. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL DROP FURTHER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM AS A
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AND WAVES STAYING ABOVE CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP SEAS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW WITH RECENT RAINS KEEPING FUELS
MOIST. RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
HANES/POHL
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