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000
FXUS61 KCAR 210912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOTTOM LINE IS SOAKING RAIN TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORM TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.75 INCH UP NORTH TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES
DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE.
DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN FOR ADDED FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM FOR MORE.

VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY. SO FAR, AS OF 3 AM, RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.10 INCH IN NORTHERN MAINE AND 0.30 TO 0.50
INCH DOWNEAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 0.75 INCH. MORE ON THE WAY
TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT/WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OF CONCERN IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
VERMONT TO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME, BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR IT TO HOLD TOGETHER
TO BRING SOME LIGHTNING TO DOWNEAST, WHERE A CHANCE OF STORMS IS
IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE STEADIER RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, EXPECTING JUST
RAIN. THERE WAS SOME WET SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH
WITH NO ACCUMULATION, BUT SINCE THEN PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE
APPEARS TO HAVE GONE TO JUST RAIN.

RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW
MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT TENTATIVE ABOUT
THE LOW LEVELS CLEARING MUCH. WENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG, AS WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN, IF THERE
IS ANY CLEARING, BELIEVE THIS WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CAPTURING THE SURFACE
LOW. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY EVENING THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALLOW
A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH THEIR EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY, WITH PROBABLY MORE
AREAS LEANING ON THE IFR SIDE MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. ALSO MORE OF
A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR DOWNEAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE A FEW STORMS DOWNEAST TODAY AS WELL. WINDY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG
COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR, BUT THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS
ALSO QUITE HIGH, RUNNING AROUND 15 FEET THIS MORNING, STEADILY
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 7 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY FOR
SEAS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DESPITE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 0.75
TO 1.50 INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM, THAT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE
ABLE TO HANDLE IT WITH ONLY MINOR RISES AND LITTLE OR NO
EXACERBATION OF FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST RIVERS HAVE FLUSHED THE
MAJORITY OF THE ICE OUT OF THE STATE, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
VERY LOCALIZED ICE JAMS LURKING. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A WET WEATHER
PATTERN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOTTOM LINE IS SOAKING RAIN TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORM TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.75 INCH UP NORTH TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES
DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE.
DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN FOR ADDED FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM FOR MORE.

VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY. SO FAR, AS OF 3 AM, RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.10 INCH IN NORTHERN MAINE AND 0.30 TO 0.50
INCH DOWNEAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 0.75 INCH. MORE ON THE WAY
TODAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT/WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OF CONCERN IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
VERMONT TO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME, BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR IT TO HOLD TOGETHER
TO BRING SOME LIGHTNING TO DOWNEAST, WHERE A CHANCE OF STORMS IS
IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE STEADIER RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, EXPECTING JUST
RAIN. THERE WAS SOME WET SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH
WITH NO ACCUMULATION, BUT SINCE THEN PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE
APPEARS TO HAVE GONE TO JUST RAIN.

RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW
MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT TENTATIVE ABOUT
THE LOW LEVELS CLEARING MUCH. WENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG, AS WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN, IF THERE
IS ANY CLEARING, BELIEVE THIS WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CAPTURING THE SURFACE
LOW. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY EVENING THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALLOW
A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH THEIR EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY, WITH PROBABLY MORE
AREAS LEANING ON THE IFR SIDE MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. ALSO MORE OF
A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR DOWNEAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE A FEW STORMS DOWNEAST TODAY AS WELL. WINDY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG
COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR, BUT THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS
ALSO QUITE HIGH, RUNNING AROUND 15 FEET THIS MORNING, STEADILY
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 7 FEET LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY FOR
SEAS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DESPITE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 0.75
TO 1.50 INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM, THAT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE
ABLE TO HANDLE IT WITH ONLY MINOR RISES AND LITTLE OR NO
EXACERBATION OF FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST RIVERS HAVE FLUSHED THE
MAJORITY OF THE ICE OUT OF THE STATE, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
VERY LOCALIZED ICE JAMS LURKING. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A WET WEATHER
PATTERN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...FOISY


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 210728
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
328 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
PRECEDED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF
HUDSON BAY WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO A 999
MILLIBAR VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
ONSHORE FLOW IS GENERATING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC IN ADVANCE
OF THE WARM FRONTAL OCCLUSION. LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATED STRAY
STROKES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT MOMENT...WITH A MUCH
MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND PIVOTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS TO BANKFULL
BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...NO CHANGES TO PRESENT
FLOOD WATCH WERE MADE. WE`LL SEE RAIN TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE`LL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT BEFORE
THE NEXT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM AT TIMES ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR AS HEAVIER
RAIN AND SCT TSTMS MOVE IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN
THE NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KT AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT
BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST. VFR WITH LCL MVFR IN
FOG TONIGHT THEN AREAS OF MVFR ON WED IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A SOAKING RAIN TODAY. MORE COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210728
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
328 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
PRECEDED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF
HUDSON BAY WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO A 999
MILLIBAR VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
ONSHORE FLOW IS GENERATING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC IN ADVANCE
OF THE WARM FRONTAL OCCLUSION. LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATED STRAY
STROKES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT MOMENT...WITH A MUCH
MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND PIVOTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS TO BANKFULL
BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...NO CHANGES TO PRESENT
FLOOD WATCH WERE MADE. WE`LL SEE RAIN TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE`LL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT BEFORE
THE NEXT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM AT TIMES ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR AS HEAVIER
RAIN AND SCT TSTMS MOVE IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN
THE NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KT AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT
BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST. VFR WITH LCL MVFR IN
FOG TONIGHT THEN AREAS OF MVFR ON WED IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A SOAKING RAIN TODAY. MORE COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210728
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
328 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
PRECEDED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF
HUDSON BAY WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO A 999
MILLIBAR VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
ONSHORE FLOW IS GENERATING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC IN ADVANCE
OF THE WARM FRONTAL OCCLUSION. LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATED STRAY
STROKES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT MOMENT...WITH A MUCH
MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND PIVOTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS TO BANKFULL
BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...NO CHANGES TO PRESENT
FLOOD WATCH WERE MADE. WE`LL SEE RAIN TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE`LL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT BEFORE
THE NEXT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM AT TIMES ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR AS HEAVIER
RAIN AND SCT TSTMS MOVE IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN
THE NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KT AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT
BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST. VFR WITH LCL MVFR IN
FOG TONIGHT THEN AREAS OF MVFR ON WED IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A SOAKING RAIN TODAY. MORE COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210728
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
328 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
PRECEDED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF
HUDSON BAY WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO A 999
MILLIBAR VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
ONSHORE FLOW IS GENERATING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC IN ADVANCE
OF THE WARM FRONTAL OCCLUSION. LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATED STRAY
STROKES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT MOMENT...WITH A MUCH
MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND PIVOTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS TO BANKFULL
BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...NO CHANGES TO PRESENT
FLOOD WATCH WERE MADE. WE`LL SEE RAIN TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE`LL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT BEFORE
THE NEXT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM AT TIMES ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR AS HEAVIER
RAIN AND SCT TSTMS MOVE IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN
THE NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KT AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT
BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST. VFR WITH LCL MVFR IN
FOG TONIGHT THEN AREAS OF MVFR ON WED IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A SOAKING RAIN TODAY. MORE COOL UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
245 AM UPDATE...UPDATE TO CANCEL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
245 AM UPDATE...UPDATE TO CANCEL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
245 AM UPDATE...UPDATE TO CANCEL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210646
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
245 AM UPDATE...UPDATE TO CANCEL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

1050 PM UPDATE...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS
AS WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR WILL LOWER TO IFR LATE TNGT INTO TUE.
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES
AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1215 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
TO INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS
COMING TO AN END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
IDEA OF A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1215 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
TO INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS
COMING TO AN END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
IDEA OF A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1215 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
TO INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS
COMING TO AN END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
IDEA OF A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1215 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
TO INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS
COMING TO AN END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
IDEA OF A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1215 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
TO INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS
COMING TO AN END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
IDEA OF A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210419
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1219 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1215 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
TO INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS
COMING TO AN END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
IDEA OF A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE. ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONGTERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE. ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONGTERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE. ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONGTERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE. ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEBCAMS AND METARS SHOWING SOME SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE W/COLUMN MOISTENING UP. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
DEWPOINTS RISE, SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN.

BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA
ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST... AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. FURTHER N AND ERNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN
ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT
THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY
RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF
TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT STILL ON THE SAINT JOHN AND PORTION OF THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS
HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORTON
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONGTERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON/VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1033 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS COMING TO AN
END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE IDEA OF
A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.
SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1033 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS COMING TO AN
END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE IDEA OF
A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.
SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1033 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS COMING TO AN
END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE IDEA OF
A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.
SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1033 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS COMING TO AN
END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE IDEA OF
A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.
SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1033 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS COMING TO AN
END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE IDEA OF
A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.
SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1033 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS COMING TO AN
END...SO WILL TAKE DOWN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL FAVOR THE IDEA OF
A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.
SO NO CHANGES THERE EITHER.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING
DATA ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST...
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE
AND COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN
PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER
N AND E...RNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR
THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH
OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT
MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD
2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG
ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING
DATA ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST...
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE
AND COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN
PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER
N AND E...RNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR
THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH
OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT
MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD
2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG
ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING
DATA ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST...
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE
AND COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN
PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER
N AND E...RNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR
THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH
OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT
MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD
2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG
ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA...AND CURRENT LIGHTNING
DATA ADD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...DOWNEAST...
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE
AND COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN
PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER
N AND E...RNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR
THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH
OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT
MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD
2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG
ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 202317 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WIND GUSTING 40 PLUS MPH ALREADY...I HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR COOS AND NRN GRAFTON COUNTIES. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE NW SLOPES OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS LLJ LIFTS
NEWD.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202317 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WIND GUSTING 40 PLUS MPH ALREADY...I HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR COOS AND NRN GRAFTON COUNTIES. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE NW SLOPES OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS LLJ LIFTS
NEWD.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 202317 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WIND GUSTING 40 PLUS MPH ALREADY...I HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR COOS AND NRN GRAFTON COUNTIES. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE NW SLOPES OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS LLJ LIFTS
NEWD.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202317 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WIND GUSTING 40 PLUS MPH ALREADY...I HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR COOS AND NRN GRAFTON COUNTIES. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE NW SLOPES OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS LLJ LIFTS
NEWD.

HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE AREA FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO
PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 202215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 202215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:


SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY/NORTON
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/FOISY/NORTON
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 202150 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
550 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...HAVE MODIFIED THE GRIDS THRU MORNING BASED ON LATEST
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A LARGE
AREA FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE SPC SSEO PRODUCTS ALSO FAVOR A CLUSTER OR LINE OF
TSTMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS A RESULT.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RA TO THE GRIDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE
STRONG SELY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON THE TERRAIN.

THIS LLJ...WHICH IS REALLY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND PER KBOX 88D...WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE COAST THRU ABOUT
06Z. THIS PUTS HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT
00Z AND 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PRECIP...THIS LLJ MAY INDUCE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS NW OF THE WHITE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED
RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHGS NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM RECENT PRIOR
UPDATES. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHGS NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM RECENT PRIOR
UPDATES. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 202020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHGS NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM RECENT PRIOR
UPDATES. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 202020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHGS NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM RECENT PRIOR
UPDATES. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS
OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG
ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST
LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+
AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI
TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY
HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG
TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE
QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE
COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. &&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN
INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY
RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. &&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT
11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS
WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED
AT THIS TM.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201907
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
306 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY
A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201907
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
306 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY
A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201907
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
306 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY
A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201907
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
306 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR ONLY
A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND THIS INHIBITED RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR
BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF
11.4 FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-
2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL
RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201850
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR
ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY.
THIS MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS
INHIBITED RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO
WESTERN MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS
TO NEAR BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT
OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE
WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF
THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201850
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR
ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY.
THIS MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS
INHIBITED RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO
WESTERN MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS
TO NEAR BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT
OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE
WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF
THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201850
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MAINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SO FAR
ONLY A TENTH TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY.
THIS MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS
INHIBITED RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. STEADIER RAINS ARE NOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND MOVING INTO
WESTERN MAINE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECONDARY CYCLONE WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND MOVE
NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE A
LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND FEED MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO COASTAL NH AND
MAINE. WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS
TO NEAR BANKFULL.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... BUT WE
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM PORTLAND WESTWARD AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND COINCIDES WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MUCAPE
VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z
TOMORROW AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS BY OVERHEAD.
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED
IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY
TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
MORNING SUN ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AS THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SWINGS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

STEADIER PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR SHORTLY AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE
NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SEAS WILL BUILD 10 TO 15
FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT
OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE
WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF
THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FARTHER DOWNEAST THE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR ONSHORE INUNDATION.
EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201659
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON NOON OBSVD
TEMPS...WHICH REFLECTED TEMPS A LITTLE ABV THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS
AT SOME LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL ME. INCREASING CLD CVR OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA SHOULD CAP RISING TEMPS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST
ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 201659
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON NOON OBSVD
TEMPS...WHICH REFLECTED TEMPS A LITTLE ABV THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS
AT SOME LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL ME. INCREASING CLD CVR OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA SHOULD CAP RISING TEMPS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST
ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201659
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON NOON OBSVD
TEMPS...WHICH REFLECTED TEMPS A LITTLE ABV THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS
AT SOME LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL ME. INCREASING CLD CVR OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA SHOULD CAP RISING TEMPS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST
ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201659
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON NOON OBSVD
TEMPS...WHICH REFLECTED TEMPS A LITTLE ABV THE PREV FCST HI TEMPS
AT SOME LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL ME. INCREASING CLD CVR OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA SHOULD CAP RISING TEMPS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST
ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201525 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1125 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

.UPDATE...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO HAD
FALLEN. THIS MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS
IS INHIBITING RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER. THE MORE STEADY
RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOREDUPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE FOOTHILLS
COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS NEAR THE
COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT ALONG
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT WE SHOULD STAY
BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL TAPER FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING TO NEAR
60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO NEAR 50
AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201525 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1125 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

.UPDATE...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH. SO FAR ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO HAD
FALLEN. THIS MORNINGS GYX SOUNDING HAD PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND THIS
IS INHIBITING RAINFALL FROM SPREADING FASTER. THE MORE STEADY
RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOREDUPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE FOOTHILLS
COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS NEAR THE
COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT ALONG
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT WE SHOULD STAY
BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL TAPER FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING TO NEAR
60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO NEAR 50
AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 201440
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE: FCST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS CLOSER TO 100
PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING RN EVENT...SPCLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL. ALSO...FCST 6 HRLY QPFS
WERE ADJUSTED ALG THE SW PTN OF OUR FA TO BETTER MATCH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICE. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS INT0 THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS ATTM BASED ON 9 AM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201440
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE: FCST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS CLOSER TO 100
PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING RN EVENT...SPCLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL. ALSO...FCST 6 HRLY QPFS
WERE ADJUSTED ALG THE SW PTN OF OUR FA TO BETTER MATCH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICE. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS INT0 THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS ATTM BASED ON 9 AM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 201440
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE: FCST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS CLOSER TO 100
PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING RN EVENT...SPCLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL. ALSO...FCST 6 HRLY QPFS
WERE ADJUSTED ALG THE SW PTN OF OUR FA TO BETTER MATCH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICE. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS INT0 THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS ATTM BASED ON 9 AM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201440
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE: FCST POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS CLOSER TO 100
PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING RN EVENT...SPCLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL. ALSO...FCST 6 HRLY QPFS
WERE ADJUSTED ALG THE SW PTN OF OUR FA TO BETTER MATCH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICE. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS INT0 THE AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS ATTM BASED ON 9 AM OBSVD TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES PULLS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AND WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BRIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201017
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
617 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

614 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201017
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
617 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

614 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201017
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
617 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

614 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201017
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
617 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

614 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 201007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS SO BEGAN MORNING AS PARTLY CLOUDY IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGE THIS HOUR.

TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 201007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS SO BEGAN MORNING AS PARTLY CLOUDY IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGE THIS HOUR.

TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS SO BEGAN MORNING AS PARTLY CLOUDY IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGE THIS HOUR.

TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS SO BEGAN MORNING AS PARTLY CLOUDY IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGE THIS HOUR.

TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 200913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 200913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 200913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES PULLS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THE OCCLUSIONS TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG GRADIENT EAST OF THE NEW LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DOWNEAST
COAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE OCCLUSION AND
TRIPLE POINT LOW LIFTS NORTH. SKIES WILL LIKELY BRIGHTEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS PULLS NORTH BEHIND THE OCCLUSION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
WILL EXIT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SNOW MIX WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR, DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY.
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DOWNEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 2K FT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNINGS IS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL RISE
OVER 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ICE JAM AT WASHBURN APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN UP AND WATER
LEVELS ARE DROPPING AT THE WASHBURN GAUGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ICE JAM AT FORT FAIRFIELD HAS BROKEN UP AND FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED
ALONG RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT FAIRFIELD. ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES
ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER BETWEEN MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN DUE TO AN ICE
JAM. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WASHBURN AND
MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL WE CAN EVALUATE THE RIVER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
RISING SEAS AND AN ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200837
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200837
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200837
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200837
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200837
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200837
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP
WEATHER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG
WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS
TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A WAVY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...THERE
WAS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SITUATED NEAR OUR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON GOES IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF POTENT 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2500 FT SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE IT`LL BE RAIN IN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. IT`LL BE A DAMP...COOL AND
INCREASINGLY RAW DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY TONIGHT AS THE 60 KNOT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FAVOURED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MAINE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID...ALONG WITH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG MID COAST MAINE...BUT
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING
TO NEAR 60 THERE...WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS STRUGGLE TO
NEAR 50 AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION OF LAPSE RATES EACH DAY DUE TO ANY
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY OCCUR IN ANY BREAKS. EACH MODEL
COMES UP WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENERIO AS HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND
DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND IS PROBABLY
BEST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SO
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL 21 IS AT 1:21 AM WITH A PREDICTED
HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A 1-2 FT STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER
NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE
INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
THERE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200446
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT MESONET AND ADJUST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPS AS THIN CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL DROP THE MOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN STEADY AS
CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200446
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT MESONET AND ADJUST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPS AS THIN CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL DROP THE MOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN STEADY AS
CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200446
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT MESONET AND ADJUST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPS AS THIN CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL DROP THE MOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN STEADY AS
CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200446
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT MESONET AND ADJUST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPS AS THIN CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL DROP THE MOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN STEADY AS
CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200446
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT MESONET AND ADJUST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPS AS THIN CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL DROP THE MOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN STEADY AS
CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200446
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT MESONET AND ADJUST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPS AS THIN CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL DROP THE MOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN STEADY AS
CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 200354
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN
VALLEY AREAS WHICH ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200354
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN
VALLEY AREAS WHICH ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200354
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN
VALLEY AREAS WHICH ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200354
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN
VALLEY AREAS WHICH ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 200204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200121 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPS AS THIN CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL DROP THE MOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN STEADY AS
CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200121 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPS AS THIN CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL DROP THE MOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN STEADY AS
CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 192223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 192223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192157 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
557 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND AND DROPS READINGS NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192157 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
557 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND AND DROPS READINGS NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 192157 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
557 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND AND DROPS READINGS NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 192157 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
557 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND AND DROPS READINGS NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING
THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 192022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
422 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191946
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING THE APPROACH OF A STORM
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO
BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES
FIRE WEATHER...CURTIS
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191946
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING... ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING
FROM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES... ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVED OVER HEAD. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... HERALDING THE APPROACH OF A STORM
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO
BEGIN MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
THE NORTH AS THE CIRRUS WONT` LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IN AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS BY NOON AND COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND 5PM. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM THIS CLOSE TO ONSET AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WHILE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN
A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50KTS HELPS TO TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TWO PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ONE DUE TO
OROGRAPHY IN THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AS MUCH AS 2.5" OF TOTAL WATER. A SECONDARY
MAXIMA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. AS THE HIGH RECEDES TOWARDS NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT A COASTAL FRONT MAY SET UP. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT YORK
COUNTY THROUGH TO PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT BOTH OF
THESE MAXIMA IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN... ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 TO 2000 FT WILL SEE A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS CLOSER TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS REGULAR
WAVES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHORT BREAK AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY/
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT BARRELS OUR WAY.
TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN 1" FOR THE SECOND TIME
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT AS WE WILL NOT HAVE
HAD NW WINDS TO SCOUR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OUT FROM THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

STEADIER RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MOVES OUT QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER A MESOLOW FORMS AND SWEEPS NE. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QPF WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT... ON THE ORDER OF A THIRD TO
A HALF INCH... BUT IT MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES.
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.

DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WORK TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL SEE A MVFR CEILING MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SOON AFTERWARDS. EXPECT IFR IN
RAIN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT HIE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIE WILL SEE A RAIN
SHADOW AND STAY MVFR. ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR KHIE AND KLEB
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LIGHT -SHSN.

MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN -RA. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH
AS 15FT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WIND GUSTS WILL DROP TO SCA OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S 12:32AM HIGH TIDE OF 11.6FT MLLW IN PORTLAND SHOULD
PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT AS ALMOST NO WIND AND WAVES WILL KEEP WATER
LEVELS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD. AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGH TIDE ON APRIL
21 IS AT 1:21AM WITH A PREDICTED HEIGHT OF 11.4FT MLLW. ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 1-2FT STORM SURGE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND, WAVES AND HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN OVERWASH
AND POSSIBLE INUNDATION FOR THE BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS LESS FAVORABLE TO ONSHORE INUNDATION. EVEN SO THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES MAY RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDCOAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES
FIRE WEATHER...CURTIS
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191629
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191629
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191629
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191629
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191629
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191326
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
926 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0925 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 191300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM... JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURES. TODAY WILL BE
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.

633 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1030 MILLIBAR HIGH WS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS A FEW
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS
WELL AS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH BUILDING HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE...WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS INTO THE MARITIMES. THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LOW MARINE STRATUS INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARDS DAWN. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
RAIN COULD REACH FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
DAWN MONDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST AND
BECOMES STEADY AND HEAVIER TOWARDS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE IT`LL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE COLUMN
FOR RAIN...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GOES WITH THE SETUP FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL
FRONT LOOKS TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG EASTERLY
INFLOW OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THIS DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW IN THE LOWEST 4 KFT WILL UPSLOPE INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE MAINE FOOTHILLS AND WILL HELP TO WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE THINKING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE TWO
RAINFALL MAXES...ONE IN THOSE UPSLOPE REGIONS AND ANOTHER ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE TO THE WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT. THESE
AREAS SHOULD SEE 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE BASIN AVERAGES
ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT...SOGGY GROUND...AND
ALREADY RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD PUSH SEVERAL NEAR OR OVER
BANKFULL. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA FROM
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLUMN MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.

E/SE WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE THERE. THEREFORE A WIND-
SWEPT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS.

MOST MODELS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...SO WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDDAY
TUESDAY...EARLIER ACROSS SW ZONES. WE/LL DRY OUT A BIT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

OVERALL...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOOKING TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED COOLER AND
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. NOT VERY PLEASANT...CONSIDERING SOME
MODELS SAY THAT WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN THE LAST SNOWFLAKE OF THE
SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
PSBL VCNTY OF THE COAST IN MARINE STRATUS AFT 10Z MONDAY. CONDS
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND FOG WITH SE SFC
WINDS NR THE COAST GUSTING UP TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME. OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WITH STEADILY BUILDING
SEAS AND WINDS GUSTING TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOULD BRING SEAS UP TO AT LEAST
15 FT ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SUBSIDING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH TODAY. A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTERNOON TODAY... KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BUT TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE HUMIDITY WILL
FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONSHORE FLOW ON
MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO THE AREA. A
SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH OCCURS TONIGHT AT 11.6 FEET MLLW IN
PORTLAND. LIGHT WIND FLOW AT THE TIME SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER... THE TIDE MONDAY NIGHT
REACHES 11.4 FEET WITH A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 191300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM... JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURES. TODAY WILL BE
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.

633 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1030 MILLIBAR HIGH WS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS A FEW
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS
WELL AS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH BUILDING HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE...WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS INTO THE MARITIMES. THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LOW MARINE STRATUS INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARDS DAWN. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
RAIN COULD REACH FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
DAWN MONDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST AND
BECOMES STEADY AND HEAVIER TOWARDS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE IT`LL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE COLUMN
FOR RAIN...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GOES WITH THE SETUP FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL
FRONT LOOKS TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG EASTERLY
INFLOW OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THIS DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW IN THE LOWEST 4 KFT WILL UPSLOPE INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE MAINE FOOTHILLS AND WILL HELP TO WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE THINKING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE TWO
RAINFALL MAXES...ONE IN THOSE UPSLOPE REGIONS AND ANOTHER ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE TO THE WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT. THESE
AREAS SHOULD SEE 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE BASIN AVERAGES
ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT...SOGGY GROUND...AND
ALREADY RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD PUSH SEVERAL NEAR OR OVER
BANKFULL. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA FROM
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLUMN MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.

E/SE WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE THERE. THEREFORE A WIND-
SWEPT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS.

MOST MODELS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...SO WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDDAY
TUESDAY...EARLIER ACROSS SW ZONES. WE/LL DRY OUT A BIT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

OVERALL...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOOKING TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED COOLER AND
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. NOT VERY PLEASANT...CONSIDERING SOME
MODELS SAY THAT WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN THE LAST SNOWFLAKE OF THE
SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
PSBL VCNTY OF THE COAST IN MARINE STRATUS AFT 10Z MONDAY. CONDS
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND FOG WITH SE SFC
WINDS NR THE COAST GUSTING UP TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME. OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WITH STEADILY BUILDING
SEAS AND WINDS GUSTING TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOULD BRING SEAS UP TO AT LEAST
15 FT ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SUBSIDING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH TODAY. A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTERNOON TODAY... KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BUT TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE HUMIDITY WILL
FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONSHORE FLOW ON
MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO THE AREA. A
SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH OCCURS TONIGHT AT 11.6 FEET MLLW IN
PORTLAND. LIGHT WIND FLOW AT THE TIME SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER... THE TIDE MONDAY NIGHT
REACHES 11.4 FEET WITH A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 191300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM... JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURES. TODAY WILL BE
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.

633 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1030 MILLIBAR HIGH WS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS A FEW
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS
WELL AS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH BUILDING HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE...WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS INTO THE MARITIMES. THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LOW MARINE STRATUS INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARDS DAWN. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
RAIN COULD REACH FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
DAWN MONDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST AND
BECOMES STEADY AND HEAVIER TOWARDS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE IT`LL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE COLUMN
FOR RAIN...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GOES WITH THE SETUP FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL
FRONT LOOKS TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG EASTERLY
INFLOW OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THIS DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW IN THE LOWEST 4 KFT WILL UPSLOPE INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE MAINE FOOTHILLS AND WILL HELP TO WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE THINKING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE TWO
RAINFALL MAXES...ONE IN THOSE UPSLOPE REGIONS AND ANOTHER ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE TO THE WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT. THESE
AREAS SHOULD SEE 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE BASIN AVERAGES
ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT...SOGGY GROUND...AND
ALREADY RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD PUSH SEVERAL NEAR OR OVER
BANKFULL. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA FROM
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLUMN MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.

E/SE WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE THERE. THEREFORE A WIND-
SWEPT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS.

MOST MODELS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...SO WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDDAY
TUESDAY...EARLIER ACROSS SW ZONES. WE/LL DRY OUT A BIT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

OVERALL...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOOKING TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED COOLER AND
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. NOT VERY PLEASANT...CONSIDERING SOME
MODELS SAY THAT WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN THE LAST SNOWFLAKE OF THE
SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
PSBL VCNTY OF THE COAST IN MARINE STRATUS AFT 10Z MONDAY. CONDS
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND FOG WITH SE SFC
WINDS NR THE COAST GUSTING UP TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME. OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WITH STEADILY BUILDING
SEAS AND WINDS GUSTING TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOULD BRING SEAS UP TO AT LEAST
15 FT ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SUBSIDING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH TODAY. A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTERNOON TODAY... KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BUT TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE HUMIDITY WILL
FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONSHORE FLOW ON
MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO THE AREA. A
SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH OCCURS TONIGHT AT 11.6 FEET MLLW IN
PORTLAND. LIGHT WIND FLOW AT THE TIME SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER... THE TIDE MONDAY NIGHT
REACHES 11.4 FEET WITH A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 191300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM... JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURES. TODAY WILL BE
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.

633 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1030 MILLIBAR HIGH WS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS A FEW
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS
WELL AS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH BUILDING HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE...WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS INTO THE MARITIMES. THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LOW MARINE STRATUS INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARDS DAWN. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
RAIN COULD REACH FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
DAWN MONDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST AND
BECOMES STEADY AND HEAVIER TOWARDS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE IT`LL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE COLUMN
FOR RAIN...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GOES WITH THE SETUP FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL
FRONT LOOKS TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG EASTERLY
INFLOW OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THIS DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW IN THE LOWEST 4 KFT WILL UPSLOPE INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE MAINE FOOTHILLS AND WILL HELP TO WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE THINKING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE TWO
RAINFALL MAXES...ONE IN THOSE UPSLOPE REGIONS AND ANOTHER ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE TO THE WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT. THESE
AREAS SHOULD SEE 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE BASIN AVERAGES
ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT...SOGGY GROUND...AND
ALREADY RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD PUSH SEVERAL NEAR OR OVER
BANKFULL. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA FROM
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLUMN MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.

E/SE WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE THERE. THEREFORE A WIND-
SWEPT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS.

MOST MODELS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...SO WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDDAY
TUESDAY...EARLIER ACROSS SW ZONES. WE/LL DRY OUT A BIT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

OVERALL...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOOKING TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED COOLER AND
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. NOT VERY PLEASANT...CONSIDERING SOME
MODELS SAY THAT WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN THE LAST SNOWFLAKE OF THE
SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
PSBL VCNTY OF THE COAST IN MARINE STRATUS AFT 10Z MONDAY. CONDS
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND FOG WITH SE SFC
WINDS NR THE COAST GUSTING UP TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME. OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WITH STEADILY BUILDING
SEAS AND WINDS GUSTING TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOULD BRING SEAS UP TO AT LEAST
15 FT ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SUBSIDING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH TODAY. A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTERNOON TODAY... KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BUT TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE HUMIDITY WILL
FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONSHORE FLOW ON
MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO THE AREA. A
SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH OCCURS TONIGHT AT 11.6 FEET MLLW IN
PORTLAND. LIGHT WIND FLOW AT THE TIME SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER... THE TIDE MONDAY NIGHT
REACHES 11.4 FEET WITH A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 191300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM... JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURES. TODAY WILL BE
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.

633 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1030 MILLIBAR HIGH WS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS A FEW
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS
WELL AS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH BUILDING HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE...WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS INTO THE MARITIMES. THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LOW MARINE STRATUS INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARDS DAWN. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
RAIN COULD REACH FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
DAWN MONDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST AND
BECOMES STEADY AND HEAVIER TOWARDS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE IT`LL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE COLUMN
FOR RAIN...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GOES WITH THE SETUP FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL
FRONT LOOKS TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG EASTERLY
INFLOW OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THIS DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW IN THE LOWEST 4 KFT WILL UPSLOPE INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE MAINE FOOTHILLS AND WILL HELP TO WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE THINKING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE TWO
RAINFALL MAXES...ONE IN THOSE UPSLOPE REGIONS AND ANOTHER ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE TO THE WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT. THESE
AREAS SHOULD SEE 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE BASIN AVERAGES
ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT...SOGGY GROUND...AND
ALREADY RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD PUSH SEVERAL NEAR OR OVER
BANKFULL. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA FROM
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLUMN MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.

E/SE WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE THERE. THEREFORE A WIND-
SWEPT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS.

MOST MODELS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...SO WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDDAY
TUESDAY...EARLIER ACROSS SW ZONES. WE/LL DRY OUT A BIT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

OVERALL...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOOKING TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED COOLER AND
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. NOT VERY PLEASANT...CONSIDERING SOME
MODELS SAY THAT WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN THE LAST SNOWFLAKE OF THE
SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
PSBL VCNTY OF THE COAST IN MARINE STRATUS AFT 10Z MONDAY. CONDS
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND FOG WITH SE SFC
WINDS NR THE COAST GUSTING UP TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME. OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WITH STEADILY BUILDING
SEAS AND WINDS GUSTING TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOULD BRING SEAS UP TO AT LEAST
15 FT ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SUBSIDING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH TODAY. A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTERNOON TODAY... KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BUT TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE HUMIDITY WILL
FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONSHORE FLOW ON
MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO THE AREA. A
SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH OCCURS TONIGHT AT 11.6 FEET MLLW IN
PORTLAND. LIGHT WIND FLOW AT THE TIME SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER... THE TIDE MONDAY NIGHT
REACHES 11.4 FEET WITH A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 191036
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
636 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

633 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1030 MILLIBAR HIGH WS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS A FEW
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS
WELL AS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH BUILDING HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE...WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS INTO THE MARITIMES. THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO INTRODUCE SOME LOW MARINE STRATUS INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARDS DAWN. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
RAIN COULD REACH FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
DAWN MONDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST AND
BECOMES STEADY AND HEAVIER TOWARDS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE IT`LL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE COLUMN
FOR RAIN...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GOES WITH THE SETUP FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL
FRONT LOOKS TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG EASTERLY
INFLOW OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THIS DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW IN THE LOWEST 4 KFT WILL UPSLOPE INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE MAINE FOOTHILLS AND WILL HELP TO WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE THINKING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE TWO
RAINFALL MAXES...ONE IN THOSE UPSLOPE REGIONS AND ANOTHER ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE TO THE WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT. THESE
AREAS SHOULD SEE 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE BASIN AVERAGES
ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT...SOGGY GROUND...AND
ALREADY RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD PUSH SEVERAL NEAR OR OVER
BANKFULL. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA FROM
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLUMN MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.

E/SE WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE THERE. THEREFORE A WIND-
SWEPT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS.

MOST MODELS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...SO WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDDAY
TUESDAY...EARLIER ACROSS SW ZONES. WE/LL DRY OUT A BIT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

OVERALL...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOOKING TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED COOLER AND
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. NOT VERY PLEASANT...CONSIDERING SOME
MODELS SAY THAT WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN THE LAST SNOWFLAKE OF THE
SEASON YET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
PSBL VCNTY OF THE COAST IN MARINE STRATUS AFT 10Z MONDAY. CONDS
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND FOG WITH SE SFC
WINDS NR THE COAST GUSTING UP TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME. OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WITH STEADILY BUILDING
SEAS AND WINDS GUSTING TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOULD BRING SEAS UP TO AT LEAST
15 FT ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SUBSIDING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH TODAY. A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTERNOON TODAY... KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BUT TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE HUMIDITY WILL
FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONSHORE FLOW ON
MONDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO THE AREA. A
SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW
MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH OCCURS TONIGHT AT 11.6 FEET MLLW IN
PORTLAND. LIGHT WIND FLOW AT THE TIME SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER... THE TIDE MONDAY NIGHT
REACHES 11.4 FEET WITH A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ002>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED AS HIPRES CONTS TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST FOR A SUNNY
DAY ON TAP WHEN CLDS SHIFT EAST IN ANOTHER FEW HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 191030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED AS HIPRES CONTS TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST FOR A SUNNY
DAY ON TAP WHEN CLDS SHIFT EAST IN ANOTHER FEW HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED AS HIPRES CONTS TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST FOR A SUNNY
DAY ON TAP WHEN CLDS SHIFT EAST IN ANOTHER FEW HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED AS HIPRES CONTS TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST FOR A SUNNY
DAY ON TAP WHEN CLDS SHIFT EAST IN ANOTHER FEW HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW
WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD
00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE
STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH
RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED.

THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED
OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED
TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER




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