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000
FXUS61 KGYX 011040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO SOME OF THE GRIDS. LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS WELL.

PREV DISC...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO SOME OF THE GRIDS. LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS WELL.

PREV DISC...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO SOME OF THE GRIDS. LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS WELL.

PREV DISC...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO SOME OF THE GRIDS. LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS WELL.

PREV DISC...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 011016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UDPATE...DECREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS RAIN FREE. SOME SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN MAINE. SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THERE.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 011016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UDPATE...DECREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS RAIN FREE. SOME SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
WESTERN MAINE. SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THERE.

THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 010856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO
CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH
HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG
DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KGYX 010716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED TO OUR
EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED TO OUR
EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED TO OUR
EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED TO OUR
EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010440
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1240 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION O0VERNIGHT
AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SOAKING RAINS
IN THE PORTLAND AREA HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...PLENTY OF FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CLEARING SKIES. MODIFIED CLOUD AND
DEW POINT GRIDS...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS HOUR.

PREV DISC...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
SRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN A LINE FROM JUST E OF KCON TO
KPWM RAIN IS HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH OCNL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES/HR. BACK EDGE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COAST...THOUGH
HEAVIEST RATES WILL LINGER WITHIN THIS LINE. TO EITHER SIDE OF
THAT LINE...A LIGHTER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP BASED ON RADAR TREND AND LATEST
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ONCE THIS RNFL
CLEARS THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NRN ZONES WHERE LINGERING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF S/WV TROF MAY HOLD
TOGETHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS
WELL...AND ALSO WEAKEN. A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS OF 19Z THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SWWD OVER TO SOUTHERNMOST NH
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THEREFORE...THESE AREAS SHOULD RETAIN THE INSTABILITY /1000-1500
J/KG SBCAPE/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE QUESTION IS DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

SEVERAL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH
AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SETUP. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
AID IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY EVENING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART IN THE MORNING.
STILL...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN TANDEM WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

MUGGY AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING PRIME TIME
HEATING. MODERATE CAPES AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME HAIL BUT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE HAIL. WILL SEE A HOT AND MUGGY DAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ENDING
ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY. AFTER A STELLAR LATE SUMMER DAY ON THURSDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY CREEP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY LATE FRIDAY TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY
DAY.

RATHER STRONG LOOKING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND
RESULT IN LOW CONDITIONS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY
OUTSIDE OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVE/NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCAS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUB-SCA EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 010415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST SO UPDATED
FORECAST TO GO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUT OFFSHORE AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARD
DAWN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 010415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST SO UPDATED
FORECAST TO GO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUT OFFSHORE AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARD
DAWN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 010415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST SO UPDATED
FORECAST TO GO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUT OFFSHORE AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARD
DAWN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 010415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST SO UPDATED
FORECAST TO GO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUT OFFSHORE AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARD
DAWN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 010212 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION O0VERNIGHT
AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN A LINE FROM JUST E OF
KCON TO KPWM RAIN IS HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH OCNL RATES IN EXCESS OF
3 INCHES/HR. BACK EDGE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COAST...THOUGH
HEAVIEST RATES WILL LINGER WITHIN THIS LINE. TO EITHER SIDE OF
THAT LINE...A LIGHTER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP BASED ON RADAR TREND AND LATEST
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ONCE THIS RNFL
CLEARS THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NRN ZONES WHERE LINGERING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF S/WV TROF MAY HOLD
TOGETHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS
WELL...AND ALSO WEAKEN. A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS OF 19Z THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SWWD OVER TO SOUTHERNMOST NH
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THEREFORE...THESE AREAS SHOULD RETAIN THE INSTABILITY /1000-1500
J/KG SBCAPE/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE QUESTION IS DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

SEVERAL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH
AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SETUP. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
AID IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY EVENING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART IN THE MORNING.
STILL...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN TANDEM WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

MUGGY AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING PRIME TIME
HEATING. MODERATE CAPES AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME HAIL BUT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE HAIL. WILL SEE A HOT AND MUGGY DAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ENDING
ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY. AFTER A STELLAR LATE SUMMER DAY ON THURSDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY CREEP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY LATE FRIDAY TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY
DAY.

RATHER STRONG LOOKING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND RESULT
IN LOW CONDITIONS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY OUTSIDE
OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVE/NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUB-SCA EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010212 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION O0VERNIGHT
AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN A LINE FROM JUST E OF
KCON TO KPWM RAIN IS HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH OCNL RATES IN EXCESS OF
3 INCHES/HR. BACK EDGE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COAST...THOUGH
HEAVIEST RATES WILL LINGER WITHIN THIS LINE. TO EITHER SIDE OF
THAT LINE...A LIGHTER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP BASED ON RADAR TREND AND LATEST
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ONCE THIS RNFL
CLEARS THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NRN ZONES WHERE LINGERING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF S/WV TROF MAY HOLD
TOGETHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS
WELL...AND ALSO WEAKEN. A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS OF 19Z THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SWWD OVER TO SOUTHERNMOST NH
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THEREFORE...THESE AREAS SHOULD RETAIN THE INSTABILITY /1000-1500
J/KG SBCAPE/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE QUESTION IS DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

SEVERAL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH
AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SETUP. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
AID IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY EVENING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART IN THE MORNING.
STILL...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN TANDEM WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

MUGGY AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING PRIME TIME
HEATING. MODERATE CAPES AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME HAIL BUT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE HAIL. WILL SEE A HOT AND MUGGY DAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ENDING
ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY. AFTER A STELLAR LATE SUMMER DAY ON THURSDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY CREEP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY LATE FRIDAY TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY
DAY.

RATHER STRONG LOOKING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND RESULT
IN LOW CONDITIONS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY OUTSIDE
OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVE/NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUB-SCA EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1005 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: NO CHGS TO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT
WITH THE GOING FCST MATCHING WELL WITH LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY
TRENDS. CHGS WERE MADE TO TUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHWRS WITH THE
APCH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO LATE DAY TUE AND TUE NGT...
RATHER THAN TUE MORN AS PER THE PRIOR FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS INTO LATE NGT WERE AGAIN MODIFIED TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS
POSTED AT 6 AM MON BASED ON TRENDS OBSVD FROM 9 PM OBS.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 010205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1005 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: NO CHGS TO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT
WITH THE GOING FCST MATCHING WELL WITH LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY
TRENDS. CHGS WERE MADE TO TUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHWRS WITH THE
APCH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO LATE DAY TUE AND TUE NGT...
RATHER THAN TUE MORN AS PER THE PRIOR FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS INTO LATE NGT WERE AGAIN MODIFIED TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS
POSTED AT 6 AM MON BASED ON TRENDS OBSVD FROM 9 PM OBS.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 900 PM UPDATE...FCST WV HTS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE PREV FCST BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING WV HTS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS.

ORGNL DISC...WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA









000
FXUS61 KGYX 312249 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION O0VERNIGHT
AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
CWFA ATTM. THIS HAS STABILIZED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS...FROM EARLIER DAYTIME
HEATING...REMAINS ACROSS SERN NH. THIS IS WHERE ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL BE WATCHED TO DEVELOP. CURRENTLY ONE STRONGER
SHOWER IS MOVING TOWARDS THIS AREA...BUT ATTM HEAVY RNFL APPEAR TO
BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY WIND
AND HEAVY RNFL WORDING IN THE GRIDS...AND JUST ADJUST POP TO
BETTER REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AT THIS HOUR.

WILL ALSO WATCH FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES...AS S/WV TROF NEARS LATER THIS EVENING. FORCING JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE S/WV HAS KICKED OFF PLENTY OF TSTMS ACROSS ERN
ONTARIO AND NOW QUEBEC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS
WELL...AND ALSO WEAKEN. A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS OF 19Z THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SWWD OVER TO SOUTHERNMOST NH
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THEREFORE...THESE AREAS SHOULD RETAIN THE INSTABILITY /1000-1500
J/KG SBCAPE/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE QUESTION IS DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

SEVERAL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH
AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SETUP. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
AID IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY EVENING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART IN THE MORNING.
STILL...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN TANDEM WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

MUGGY AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING PRIME TIME
HEATING. MODERATE CAPES AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME HAIL BUT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE HAIL. WILL SEE A HOT AND MUGGY DAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ENDING
ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY. AFTER A STELLAR LATE SUMMER DAY ON THURSDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY CREEP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY LATE FRIDAY TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY
DAY.

RATHER STRONG LOOKING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND RESULT
IN LOW CONDITIONS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY OUTSIDE
OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVE/NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUB-SCA EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 312154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: POPS WERE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVR SRN
PTNS OF THE FA WHERE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A 50 MI WIDE BAND
OF SHWRS SLIDING EWRD FROM NW NEW ENG. WE KEPT A CHC OF THUNDER EVEN
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO CG STRIKES OF NOTE OVR OUR REGION FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS IN A LOW SBCAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT GIVEN THE TROP
LIKE AIR MASS OVR THE REGION...ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THRU THE EVE...WITH ANY TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LCLZD
VERY HVY RNFL. FCST 6 HRLY QPFS OVRNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO
THE OVRNGT WERE MODIFIED TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS BASED ON TRENDS OBSVD
FROM 5 PM OBS.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA






000
FXUS61 KCAR 312154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: POPS WERE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVR SRN
PTNS OF THE FA WHERE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A 50 MI WIDE BAND
OF SHWRS SLIDING EWRD FROM NW NEW ENG. WE KEPT A CHC OF THUNDER EVEN
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO CG STRIKES OF NOTE OVR OUR REGION FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HRS IN A LOW SBCAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT GIVEN THE TROP
LIKE AIR MASS OVR THE REGION...ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THRU THE EVE...WITH ANY TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LCLZD
VERY HVY RNFL. FCST 6 HRLY QPFS OVRNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO
THE OVRNGT WERE MODIFIED TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS BASED ON TRENDS OBSVD
FROM 5 PM OBS.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWRD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 311923
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCTRD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA










000
FXUS61 KCAR 311923
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCTRD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA










000
FXUS61 KCAR 311923
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCTRD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA










000
FXUS61 KCAR 311923
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY
TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBOU FORECAST
AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

A MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWNEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE DOWN EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD ACROSS MAINE NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD SCTRD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EAST OF OUR
CWA AND COOLER TEMPS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
SHOWERS...ISOLATED TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOMORROW WITH SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA










000
FXUS61 KGYX 311923
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION O0VERNIGHT
AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS WELL...AND ALSO WEAKEN.
A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES AS OF 19Z THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STABILIZE
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
SWWD OVER TO SOUTHERNMOST NH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS SHOULD RETAIN THE
INSTABILITY /1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
QUESTION IS DO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

SEVERAL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH
AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SETUP. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
AID IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY EVENING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART IN THE MORNING.
STILL...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN TANDEM WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

MUGGY AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING PRIME TIME
HEATING. MODERATE CAPES AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME HAIL BUT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE HAIL. WILL SEE A HOT AND MUGGY DAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ENDING
ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY. AFTER A STELLAR LATE SUMMER DAY ON THURSDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY CREEP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY LATE FRIDAY TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY
DAY.

RATHER STRONG LOOKING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND RESULT
IN LOW CONDITIONS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY OUTSIDE
OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVE/NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUB-SCA EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311923
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION O0VERNIGHT
AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS WELL...AND ALSO WEAKEN.
A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES AS OF 19Z THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STABILIZE
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
SWWD OVER TO SOUTHERNMOST NH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS SHOULD RETAIN THE
INSTABILITY /1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
QUESTION IS DO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

SEVERAL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH
AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SETUP. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
AID IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY EVENING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART IN THE MORNING.
STILL...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN TANDEM WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

MUGGY AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING PRIME TIME
HEATING. MODERATE CAPES AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME HAIL BUT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE HAIL. WILL SEE A HOT AND MUGGY DAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ENDING
ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY. AFTER A STELLAR LATE SUMMER DAY ON THURSDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY CREEP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY LATE FRIDAY TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY
DAY.

RATHER STRONG LOOKING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND RESULT
IN LOW CONDITIONS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY OUTSIDE
OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVE/NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUB-SCA EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311712
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE WANED AS OF 10 AM. MODERATE HEATING IS
NOW TAKING PLACE THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE RISE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AROUND 1000
J/KG SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COULD BE STRONG. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NH WHERE INSTABILITY AND PWATS WILL BE GREATEST. THERE IS A
LOW PROB OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA IF STORMS TRAIN. PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311600
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.

&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE INTO NW MAINE...THERE AREA A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE TIME...OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 311600
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.

&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE INTO NW MAINE...THERE AREA A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE TIME...OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...SKYCON...AND HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 311418 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE WANED AS OF 10 AM. MODERATE HEATING IS
NOW TAKING PLACE THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE RISE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AROUND 1000
J/KG SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COULD BE STRONG. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NH WHERE INSTABILITY AND PWATS WILL BE GREATEST. THERE IS A
LOW PROB OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA IF STORMS TRAIN. PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311418 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE WANED AS OF 10 AM. MODERATE HEATING IS
NOW TAKING PLACE THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE RISE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AROUND 1000
J/KG SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COULD BE STRONG. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NH WHERE INSTABILITY AND PWATS WILL BE GREATEST. THERE IS A
LOW PROB OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA IF STORMS TRAIN. PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311417
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE WANED AS OF 10 AM. MODERATE HEATING IS
NOW TAKING PLACE THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE RISE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AROUND 1000
J/KG SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COULD BE STRONG. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NH WHERE INSTABILITY AND PWATS WILL BE GREATEST. THERE IS A
LOW PROB OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA IF STORMS TRAIN. PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311417
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE WANED AS OF 10 AM. MODERATE HEATING IS
NOW TAKING PLACE THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE RISE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AROUND 1000
J/KG SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COULD BE STRONG. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NH WHERE INSTABILITY AND PWATS WILL BE GREATEST. THERE IS A
LOW PROB OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA IF STORMS TRAIN. PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311353
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...LIGH PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS NE
MAINE...OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS NW MAINE. THREAT OF OF
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 311353
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...LIGH PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS NE
MAINE...OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS NW MAINE. THREAT OF OF
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 311019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

614 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

614 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTH WHERE
A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 311012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTH WHERE
A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 311012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTH WHERE
A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 311012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTH WHERE
A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 310901
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
501 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS










000
FXUS61 KCAR 310901
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
501 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS, THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND SCATTERED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
DOWNEAST WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH ALSO STILL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5
FT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS











000
FXUS61 KGYX 310713
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
313 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310713
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
313 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310713
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
313 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310713
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
313 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH
ONTARIO TO A 1008 MILLIBAR LOW VCNTY OF LK HURON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN AND TEH UPPER MIDWEST. A 1026 MILLOBAR
HIGH WAS SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST. A BROAD SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY HUMD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WE`LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT IF TRAINING OF ECHOES
OCCURS WILL PROVIDE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL
NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY...EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FIRE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A DRY PERIOD TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR. ON MONDAY...VFR
WITH LCL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.


.LONG TERM...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY OUTSIDE THE BAYS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310412
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1212 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING NEARBY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1205 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO THE 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM AND MOISTENING SWLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP MOST
EVERYONE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN NH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A CAPE ROBBER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND
APPROACHING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.

SREF MEAN PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MODELS AND A FEW OTHERS POINT AT SOUTHERN NH AND
SOUTHERNMOST ME AS THE HOT SPOT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT/S
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEEL JULY-LIKE...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY...A
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING VERY WARM
MOIST AIR TO POOL OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
18 DEGREES C WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
WORK TO CAP SOME CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE CAP EACH DAY AS SHORT WAVES AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME BY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND POINTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) POSSIBLE THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONTS. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CLOUDS. IMPROVEMENT COMES MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR A
24HR PERIOD OR SO BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310412
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1212 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING NEARBY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1205 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO THE 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM AND MOISTENING SWLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP MOST
EVERYONE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN NH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A CAPE ROBBER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND
APPROACHING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.

SREF MEAN PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MODELS AND A FEW OTHERS POINT AT SOUTHERN NH AND
SOUTHERNMOST ME AS THE HOT SPOT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT/S
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEEL JULY-LIKE...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY...A
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING VERY WARM
MOIST AIR TO POOL OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
18 DEGREES C WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
WORK TO CAP SOME CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE CAP EACH DAY AS SHORT WAVES AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME BY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND POINTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) POSSIBLE THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONTS. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CLOUDS. IMPROVEMENT COMES MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR A
24HR PERIOD OR SO BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310412
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1212 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING NEARBY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1205 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO THE 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM AND MOISTENING SWLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP MOST
EVERYONE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN NH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A CAPE ROBBER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND
APPROACHING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.

SREF MEAN PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MODELS AND A FEW OTHERS POINT AT SOUTHERN NH AND
SOUTHERNMOST ME AS THE HOT SPOT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT/S
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEEL JULY-LIKE...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY...A
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING VERY WARM
MOIST AIR TO POOL OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
18 DEGREES C WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
WORK TO CAP SOME CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE CAP EACH DAY AS SHORT WAVES AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME BY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND POINTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) POSSIBLE THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONTS. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CLOUDS. IMPROVEMENT COMES MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR A
24HR PERIOD OR SO BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310412
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1212 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING NEARBY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1205 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO THE 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM AND MOISTENING SWLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP MOST
EVERYONE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN NH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A CAPE ROBBER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND
APPROACHING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.

SREF MEAN PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MODELS AND A FEW OTHERS POINT AT SOUTHERN NH AND
SOUTHERNMOST ME AS THE HOT SPOT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT/S
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEEL JULY-LIKE...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY...A
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING VERY WARM
MOIST AIR TO POOL OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
18 DEGREES C WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
WORK TO CAP SOME CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE CAP EACH DAY AS SHORT WAVES AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME BY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND POINTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) POSSIBLE THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONTS. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CLOUDS. IMPROVEMENT COMES MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR A
24HR PERIOD OR SO BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310337
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1137 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...ONE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY. UPDATE
FORECAST TO GO 70% CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING
THEN 60% IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE
NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/MIGNONE/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 310337
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1137 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...ONE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY. UPDATE
FORECAST TO GO 70% CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING
THEN 60% IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE
NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS/MIGNONE/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 310125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
925 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
MUCH WARMER EVENING THAN PREVIOUS EVENINGS, WITH A SOUTH BREEZE
AHEAD OF A FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST IN QUEBEC. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
THICKEN AND LOWER AS WE HEAD TOWARD MORNING, WITH SHOWERS MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST MAINE AROUND DAYBREAK.

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN ADJUSTING TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE
NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 310125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
925 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
MUCH WARMER EVENING THAN PREVIOUS EVENINGS, WITH A SOUTH BREEZE
AHEAD OF A FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST IN QUEBEC. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
THICKEN AND LOWER AS WE HEAD TOWARD MORNING, WITH SHOWERS MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST MAINE AROUND DAYBREAK.

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN ADJUSTING TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE
NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 302247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS
QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY ATTM, BUT EXPECT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK EXCEPT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE ITEMS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE
NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 302247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS
QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY ATTM, BUT EXPECT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK EXCEPT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE ITEMS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE
NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 302247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS
QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY ATTM, BUT EXPECT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK EXCEPT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE ITEMS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE
NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 302247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS
QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY ATTM, BUT EXPECT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK EXCEPT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE ITEMS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE
NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR
TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE NAM12... GFS40 AND THE
ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN









000
FXUS61 KCAR 301925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR
TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE NAM12... GFS40 AND THE
ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN









000
FXUS61 KCAR 301925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR
TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE NAM12... GFS40 AND THE
ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN









000
FXUS61 KCAR 301925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR
TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE NAM12... GFS40 AND THE
ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301919
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING NEARBY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM AND MOISTENING SWLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP MOST
EVERYONE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN NH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A CAPE ROBBER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND
APPROACHING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.

SREF MEAN PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MODELS AND A FEW OTHERS POINT AT SOUTHERN NH AND
SOUTHERNMOST ME AS THE HOT SPOT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT/S
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEEL JULY-LIKE...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY...A
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING VERY WARM
MOIST AIR TO POOL OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
18 DEGREES C WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
WORK TO CAP SOME CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE CAP EACH DAY AS SHORT WAVES AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME BY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND POINTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) POSSIBLE THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONTS. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CLOUDS. IMPROVEMENT COMES MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR A
24HR PERIOD OR SO BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 301919
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING NEARBY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM AND MOISTENING SWLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP MOST
EVERYONE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN NH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A CAPE ROBBER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND
APPROACHING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.

SREF MEAN PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MODELS AND A FEW OTHERS POINT AT SOUTHERN NH AND
SOUTHERNMOST ME AS THE HOT SPOT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT/S
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEEL JULY-LIKE...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY...A
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING VERY WARM
MOIST AIR TO POOL OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
18 DEGREES C WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
WORK TO CAP SOME CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE CAP EACH DAY AS SHORT WAVES AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME BY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND POINTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) POSSIBLE THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONTS. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CLOUDS. IMPROVEMENT COMES MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR A
24HR PERIOD OR SO BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 301919
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING NEARBY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM AND MOISTENING SWLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP MOST
EVERYONE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN NH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A CAPE ROBBER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND
APPROACHING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.

SREF MEAN PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MODELS AND A FEW OTHERS POINT AT SOUTHERN NH AND
SOUTHERNMOST ME AS THE HOT SPOT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT/S
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEEL JULY-LIKE...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY...A
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING VERY WARM
MOIST AIR TO POOL OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
18 DEGREES C WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
WORK TO CAP SOME CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE CAP EACH DAY AS SHORT WAVES AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME BY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND POINTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) POSSIBLE THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONTS. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CLOUDS. IMPROVEMENT COMES MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR A
24HR PERIOD OR SO BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 301919
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING NEARBY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM AND MOISTENING SWLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP MOST
EVERYONE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO WESTERN NH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A CAPE ROBBER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND
APPROACHING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE
MAIN THREATS.

SREF MEAN PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW MODELS AND A FEW OTHERS POINT AT SOUTHERN NH AND
SOUTHERNMOST ME AS THE HOT SPOT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT/S
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEEL JULY-LIKE...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY...A
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING VERY WARM
MOIST AIR TO POOL OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
18 DEGREES C WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
WORK TO CAP SOME CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE CAP EACH DAY AS SHORT WAVES AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME BY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND POINTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) POSSIBLE THANKS TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONTS. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CLOUDS. IMPROVEMENT COMES MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR A
24HR PERIOD OR SO BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 301632
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1232 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 301632
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1232 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 301354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...IT SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP A BIT...SOME DIURNAL CU MAY CAUSE SKIES
TO GO BKN AT TIMES IN SPOTS.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...IT SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP A BIT...SOME DIURNAL CU MAY CAUSE SKIES
TO GO BKN AT TIMES IN SPOTS.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT`LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 301318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/






000
FXUS61 KCAR 301318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/






000
FXUS61 KCAR 301318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/






000
FXUS61 KCAR 301318
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH FROM MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
DOWNEAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE DOWNEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF MAINE. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN MOVES EAST FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR
OR IFR IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN SOUTHWESTERLIES
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT REQUIRING
A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/






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