Latest:
 AFDCAR |  AFDGYX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 282351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
750 PM...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR AN HOUR UNTIL 9PM IN
ME...AND CANCELED FOR NH.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST FOR TNGT. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD
TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 282351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
750 PM...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR AN HOUR UNTIL 9PM IN
ME...AND CANCELED FOR NH.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST FOR TNGT. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD
TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 282209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
609 PM UPDATE...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR JULY
(997 MILLIBARS) IS CURRENTLY NEAR KPSM. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN MAINE TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
BY MID MORNING TUE. ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS WRN MAINE LATER TON AND MAY
GET SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A 700 MB LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH
BY WRN MAINE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND. THE MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY LOCALLY
PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE A
CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS
COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH IS 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN
THE FORECAST SEAS BY A FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD.
THE ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF
7.25" OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 282209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
609 PM UPDATE...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR JULY
(997 MILLIBARS) IS CURRENTLY NEAR KPSM. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN MAINE TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
BY MID MORNING TUE. ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO NH AND SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS WRN MAINE LATER TON AND MAY
GET SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A 700 MB LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH
BY WRN MAINE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND. THE MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY LOCALLY
PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE A
CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS
COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH IS 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN
THE FORECAST SEAS BY A FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD.
THE ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF
7.25" OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 282139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
539 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. ADJUSTED CHC OF PRCP
THIS EVE PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. OTRW JUST MINOR TWEAKS.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG//WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST FOR TNGT. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD
TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCAR 281951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT W/SOME TSTMS. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FT WHICH IS 1-2
FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE FORECAST SEAS BY A
FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY










000
FXUS61 KCAR 281951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT W/SOME TSTMS. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FT WHICH IS 1-2
FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE FORECAST SEAS BY A
FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY











000
FXUS61 KGYX 281908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
...FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG///WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS
TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
...FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG///WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS
TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
...FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG///WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS
TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
...FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG///WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS
TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281811
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ISSUE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVE FOR ALL
OF OUR NH ZONES AND OUR WRN/SRN MAINE ZONES.

UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281811
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ISSUE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVE FOR ALL
OF OUR NH ZONES AND OUR WRN/SRN MAINE ZONES.

UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 281625
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1225 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AGAIN TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING
TO THE N ACROSS NH AND WRN AND SRN MAINE AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRCP ACROSS OUR OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES AND PRCP ENDING
OR BECOME LESS SCATTERED OVER OUR SRN MOST AND EXTREME SW ME ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES FURTHER N ACROSS NH AND SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE PRCP
TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF FOG
...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NRN NH TO NRN/ERN MAINE ZONES. ANY OTHER CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE BUT WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS, IF ANY, TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TODAY BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH
WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
TIL THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS PER THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE
COASTAL REGION AND ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST TSTM POTENTIAL
FOR THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST
MUCAPE UP TO 1000 JOULES AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS RESIDES. KEPT
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THERE FOR THIS
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KGYX 281401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS PER RADAR. AREA MOVING TO THE
N ACROSS NH AND ADJACENT EXTREME WRN AND SW MAINE AT THIS TIME
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRCP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NRN AND ERN MAINE ZONES.
PRCP WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST OF OUR MAINE ZONES WHILE SRN EDGE OF
PRCP PUSHES N ACROSS NH AND POSSIBLY INTO SW MAINE. HOWEVER...MORE
PRCP TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS OF
FOG ...SOME QUITE DENSE TO LAST THRU THE MORNING. ANY OTHER
CHANGES JUST MINOR BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/DENSE F THIS MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSTMS ON AND OFF THRU THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUESDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME F
AROUND TNGT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL SATURATING LOW LEVELS. SHOULD
BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVE WHICH WILL
CREATE ROUGH SEAS SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA UP FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 281256
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST
THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM
FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION.
SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS
DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS
OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE
W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 281256
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST
THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM
FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION.
SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS
DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS
OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE
W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN






000
FXUS61 KGYX 281056
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
656 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA. BAND OF HEAVY SHWRS/TSTMS
ROTATING NEWD AS EXPECTED. TIMING LOOKS GOOD. HRRR TIMING IS RIGHT
ON. TEMPS LOOK GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN
AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH
ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z.
CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE
MTNS INTO TUE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA
CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 281056
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
656 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA. BAND OF HEAVY SHWRS/TSTMS
ROTATING NEWD AS EXPECTED. TIMING LOOKS GOOD. HRRR TIMING IS RIGHT
ON. TEMPS LOOK GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH
PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG
.75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR
MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
AND THE FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN
AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH
ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z.
CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE
MTNS INTO TUE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA
CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCAR 281049
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
649 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH ATTM, BUT IT WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS
STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY, BUT
SOME OF THE O6Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE LOW COULD BE A BIT
FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WOULD PUSH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN A BIT FURTHER EAST AS WELL. NOTED THAT
WPC HAS UPDATED THEIR DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE
OUR FAR NW AREAS IN A MODERATE RISK. GIVEN THIS AND THE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW WILL TRACK, OPTED TO ADD
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO OUR NW ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 281049
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
649 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH ATTM, BUT IT WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS
STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY, BUT
SOME OF THE O6Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE LOW COULD BE A BIT
FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WOULD PUSH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN A BIT FURTHER EAST AS WELL. NOTED THAT
WPC HAS UPDATED THEIR DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE
OUR FAR NW AREAS IN A MODERATE RISK. GIVEN THIS AND THE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW WILL TRACK, OPTED TO ADD
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO OUR NW ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 280739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE
WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE
TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS; RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, SUNSHINE TODAY.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 280739
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE
WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE
TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS; RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, SUNSHINE TODAY.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN











000
FXUS61 KGYX 280720
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
320 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL
DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH
MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO
WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE
FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN
AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH
ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z.
CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE
MTNS INTO TUE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA
CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280720
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
320 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL
DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST
ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH
MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO
WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF
THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING
WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE
FOG.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR
TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME
EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE
ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE
TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND
OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN
AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH
ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z.
CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE
MTNS INTO TUE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA
CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280450
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 280450
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 280450
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KCAR 280450
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KGYX 280439
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1239 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT... THEN
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE ON MONDAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1235 AM UPDATE...A SMALL AREA OF SHWRS AND PSBLY AN EMBDD TSTM
ACRS ECENTRAL NH WEAKENING BUT SLOWLY DRIFTING E. MADE SOME ADJ
FOR POPS TO COVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...OTRW LOWERED
POPS ELSWHR OVER ERN AND OVER THE WATERS. HRRR SHOWS NEXT ROUND OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO ROATE NEWD ARND 11Z AND THEN NEWD IN SRN/WRN ME BY
14Z. HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL SO THIS TIMING IS ACCEPTED.
MADE SOME SIG ADJ TO POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. ALSO PUT IN
WORDING FOR HVY DOWNPOURS AND GSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
AS INDICES INICATE SOME STG TSTM ACTVTY SHOULD MOVE THRU THE FA
TODAY.

PREV FCST:
PREVIOUSLY...FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. BEHIND IT... SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. A VORT MAX IS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES OCCUR IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS... SO WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT FOR
ROTATING STORMS THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED... SO POP IS ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE MORE
RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TURNS NORTH THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER TIME SYSTEM... WITH A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO AND
AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENT IN AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TOMORROW... SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP NEAR 100 PERCENT... WITH
THE HOURLY TREND SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN AS WELL. STILL SEE A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S... ONCE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND SOME CLEARING BEGINS. MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE GENERAL TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU MOST OF THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AROUND SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THRU FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS PATTERN KEEPS A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A RESULT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES THRU THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO 500 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS TO THE N
NE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING... BUT COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN EAST OF PORTLAND AFFECTING PRIMARILY
AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WET GROUND... HIGH DEW
POINTS... AND A PERSISTENT SSE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MOVE IN BY
MORNING... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING
THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20 OR 25 KT BY MONDAY
MORNING... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS WELL. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO THE WAVE HEIGHTS BY A SIGNIFICANT
MARGIN. HAVE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY... BUT STILL
COULD SEE 7 FT WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ON
TUESDAY MAY STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OTHERWISE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD KEEPING THE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 280439
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1239 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT... THEN
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE ON MONDAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1235 AM UPDATE...A SMALL AREA OF SHWRS AND PSBLY AN EMBDD TSTM
ACRS ECENTRAL NH WEAKENING BUT SLOWLY DRIFTING E. MADE SOME ADJ
FOR POPS TO COVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...OTRW LOWERED
POPS ELSWHR OVER ERN AND OVER THE WATERS. HRRR SHOWS NEXT ROUND OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO ROATE NEWD ARND 11Z AND THEN NEWD IN SRN/WRN ME BY
14Z. HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL SO THIS TIMING IS ACCEPTED.
MADE SOME SIG ADJ TO POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. ALSO PUT IN
WORDING FOR HVY DOWNPOURS AND GSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
AS INDICES INICATE SOME STG TSTM ACTVTY SHOULD MOVE THRU THE FA
TODAY.

PREV FCST:
PREVIOUSLY...FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. BEHIND IT... SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. A VORT MAX IS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES OCCUR IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS... SO WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT FOR
ROTATING STORMS THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED... SO POP IS ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE MORE
RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TURNS NORTH THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER TIME SYSTEM... WITH A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO AND
AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENT IN AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TOMORROW... SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP NEAR 100 PERCENT... WITH
THE HOURLY TREND SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN AS WELL. STILL SEE A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S... ONCE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND SOME CLEARING BEGINS. MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE GENERAL TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU MOST OF THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AROUND SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THRU FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS PATTERN KEEPS A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A RESULT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES THRU THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO 500 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS TO THE N
NE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING... BUT COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN EAST OF PORTLAND AFFECTING PRIMARILY
AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WET GROUND... HIGH DEW
POINTS... AND A PERSISTENT SSE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MOVE IN BY
MORNING... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING
THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20 OR 25 KT BY MONDAY
MORNING... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS WELL. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO THE WAVE HEIGHTS BY A SIGNIFICANT
MARGIN. HAVE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY... BUT STILL
COULD SEE 7 FT WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ON
TUESDAY MAY STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OTHERWISE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD KEEPING THE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCAR 280136
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
936 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
936 PM UPDATE...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA TAKING MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADD`L SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NH ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOMERSET COUNTY
AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ATTEMPT TO BETTER REFINE THE POPS SOME
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED MOSTLY ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND ALSO THE NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THERE IS
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING TOO
DENSE ATTM. STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE
DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY






000
FXUS61 KCAR 280136
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
936 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
936 PM UPDATE...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA TAKING MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADD`L SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NH ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOMERSET COUNTY
AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ATTEMPT TO BETTER REFINE THE POPS SOME
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED MOSTLY ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND ALSO THE NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THERE IS
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING TOO
DENSE ATTM. STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE
DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY







000
FXUS61 KGYX 272245
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... THEN
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE ON MONDAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
645 PM...THIS UPDATE FOCUSES ON POPS TO ADJUST THEM TO BETTER
REFLECT A DRIER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ERN ZONES....AND THEN HIT
THE SCT TSRA MOVING OUT OF VT INTO NH BETWEEN 23 AND ~01Z. THESE
STORMS HAVE SHOWED SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE ABILITY TO HOLD
CORERS ABV THE FREEZING LVL...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ALSO...ADJUSTED T/TD BASED ON CURRENT OBS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MINS IN THE NRN ZONES.

PREVIOUSLY...FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. BEHIND IT... SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. A VORT MAX IS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES OCCUR IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS... SO WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT FOR
ROTATING STORMS THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED... SO POP IS ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE MORE
RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TURNS NORTH THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER TIME SYSTEM... WITH A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO AND
AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENT IN AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TOMORROW... SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP NEAR 100 PERCENT... WITH
THE HOURLY TREND SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN AS WELL. STILL SEE A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S... ONCE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND SOME CLEARING BEGINS. MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE GENERAL TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU MOST OF THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AROUND SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THRU FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS PATTERN KEEPS A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A RESULT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES THRU THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO 500 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS TO THE N
NE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING... BUT COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN EAST OF PORTLAND AFFECTING PRIMARILY
AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WET GROUND... HIGH DEW
POINTS... AND A PERSISTENT SSE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MOVE IN BY
MORNING... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING
THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20 OR 25 KT BY MONDAY
MORNING... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS WELL. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO THE WAVE HEIGHTS BY A SIGNIFICANT
MARGIN. HAVE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY... BUT STILL
COULD SEE 7 FT WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ON
TUESDAY MAY STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OTHERWISE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD KEEPING THE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 272245
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... THEN
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE ON MONDAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
645 PM...THIS UPDATE FOCUSES ON POPS TO ADJUST THEM TO BETTER
REFLECT A DRIER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ERN ZONES....AND THEN HIT
THE SCT TSRA MOVING OUT OF VT INTO NH BETWEEN 23 AND ~01Z. THESE
STORMS HAVE SHOWED SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE ABILITY TO HOLD
CORERS ABV THE FREEZING LVL...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ALSO...ADJUSTED T/TD BASED ON CURRENT OBS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MINS IN THE NRN ZONES.

PREVIOUSLY...FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. BEHIND IT... SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. A VORT MAX IS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES OCCUR IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS... SO WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT FOR
ROTATING STORMS THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED... SO POP IS ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE MORE
RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TURNS NORTH THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER TIME SYSTEM... WITH A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO AND
AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENT IN AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TOMORROW... SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP NEAR 100 PERCENT... WITH
THE HOURLY TREND SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN AS WELL. STILL SEE A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S... ONCE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND SOME CLEARING BEGINS. MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE GENERAL TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU MOST OF THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AROUND SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THRU FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS PATTERN KEEPS A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A RESULT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES THRU THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO 500 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS TO THE N
NE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING... BUT COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN EAST OF PORTLAND AFFECTING PRIMARILY
AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WET GROUND... HIGH DEW
POINTS... AND A PERSISTENT SSE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MOVE IN BY
MORNING... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING
THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20 OR 25 KT BY MONDAY
MORNING... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS WELL. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO THE WAVE HEIGHTS BY A SIGNIFICANT
MARGIN. HAVE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY... BUT STILL
COULD SEE 7 FT WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ON
TUESDAY MAY STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OTHERWISE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD KEEPING THE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 272216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
616 PM UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN MAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS AN
AREA OF CLEARING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH WHERE IT
HAS TURNED MORE UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER
STORMS HAVE FORMED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB AND VLIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS OF FOG. MVFR TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO
IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT
THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW
END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 272216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
616 PM UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN MAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS AN
AREA OF CLEARING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH WHERE IT
HAS TURNED MORE UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER
STORMS HAVE FORMED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB AND VLIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS OF FOG. MVFR TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO
IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT
THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW
END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 272216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
616 PM UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN MAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS AN
AREA OF CLEARING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH WHERE IT
HAS TURNED MORE UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER
STORMS HAVE FORMED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB AND VLIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS OF FOG. MVFR TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO
IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT
THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW
END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 272216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
616 PM UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN MAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS AN
AREA OF CLEARING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH WHERE IT
HAS TURNED MORE UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER
STORMS HAVE FORMED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 6 PM OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB AND VLIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS OF FOG. MVFR TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO
IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT
THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW
END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KGYX 271923
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... THEN
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE ON MONDAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. BEHIND IT... SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. A VORT MAX IS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES OCCUR IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS... SO WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT FOR
ROTATING STORMS THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED... SO POP IS ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE MORE
RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TURNS NORTH THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER TIME SYSTEM... WITH A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO AND
AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENT IN AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TOMORROW... SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP NEAR 100 PERCENT... WITH
THE HOURLY TREND SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN AS WELL. STILL SEE A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S... ONCE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND SOME CLEARING BEGINS. MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE GENERAL TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU MOST OF THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AROUND SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THRU FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS PATTERN KEEPS A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A RESULT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES THRU THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO 500 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS TO THE N
NE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING... BUT COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN EAST OF PORTLAND AFFECTING PRIMARILY
AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WET GROUND... HIGH DEW
POINTS... AND A PERSISTENT SSE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MOVE IN BY
MORNING... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING
THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20 OR 25 KT BY MONDAY
MORNING... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS WELL. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO THE WAVE HEIGHTS BY A SIGNIFICANT
MARGIN. HAVE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY... BUT STILL
COULD SEE 7 FT WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ON
TUESDAY MAY STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OTHERWISE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD KEEPING THE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAPRIOLA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CAPRIOLA
AVIATION...KIMBLE/CAPRIOLA
MARINE...KIMBLE/CAPRIOLA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271923
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... THEN
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE ON MONDAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. BEHIND IT... SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. A VORT MAX IS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... HELPING TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY REACH NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES OCCUR IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS... SO WILL HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT FOR
ROTATING STORMS THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED... SO POP IS ONLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TONIGHT BEFORE MORE
RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TURNS NORTH THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER TIME SYSTEM... WITH A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WRAPPING INTO AND
AROUND THE LOW. CONFIDENT IN AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TOMORROW... SO WENT WITH VERY HIGH POP NEAR 100 PERCENT... WITH
THE HOURLY TREND SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN AS WELL. STILL SEE A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT... SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S... ONCE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND SOME CLEARING BEGINS. MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
THE GENERAL TREND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU MOST OF THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AROUND SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THRU FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN
WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS PATTERN KEEPS A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A RESULT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES THRU THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO 500 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS TO THE N
NE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE DAY TIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING... BUT COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN EAST OF PORTLAND AFFECTING PRIMARILY
AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WET GROUND... HIGH DEW
POINTS... AND A PERSISTENT SSE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN TO MOVE IN BY
MORNING... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING
THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 20 OR 25 KT BY MONDAY
MORNING... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING AS WELL. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO THE WAVE HEIGHTS BY A SIGNIFICANT
MARGIN. HAVE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SUBSTANTIALLY... BUT STILL
COULD SEE 7 FT WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS ON
TUESDAY MAY STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OTHERWISE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD KEEPING THE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAPRIOLA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CAPRIOLA
AVIATION...KIMBLE/CAPRIOLA
MARINE...KIMBLE/CAPRIOLA





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM.

THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
THE MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR
LOOPS W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
SEEING THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A
LIGHT SSE WIND AND WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX,
ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO START OUT THE CYCLE
W/SOME TSTMS INTO THE EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY MONDAY. ACROSS KBGR AND
KBHB, MVFR GOING TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR FOR A TIME EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY










000
FXUS61 KCAR 271853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM.

THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
THE MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR
LOOPS W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
SEEING THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A
LIGHT SSE WIND AND WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX,
ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO START OUT THE CYCLE
W/SOME TSTMS INTO THE EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY MONDAY. ACROSS KBGR AND
KBHB, MVFR GOING TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR FOR A TIME EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3
    PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY











000
FXUS61 KGYX 271629
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1229 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1230PM UPDATE..
BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER IS MOVING OUT OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND INTO WESTERN MAINE. GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS VERY
WELL... THOUGH DID UPDATE SKY COVER AND QPF FIELDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY UNIFORM AT BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.5 INCHES AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH... THOUGH THEY MIGHT DECREASE A BIT AS IT MOVES
EAST. WHILE ONE EYE MONITORS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS... THE
OTHER EYE IS NOW TURNING UPSTREAM WHERE A VORT MAX OVER UPSTATE
NEW YORK IS BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RAIN WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WAVE. WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LOW
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO AID CYCLONICALLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
THIS IS ALL CONTINGENT UPON ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION IN THE
REMAINING HOURS OF THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

9AM UPDATE... LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING STEADILY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO VERMONT THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP FORECAST TO
BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL AND HAVE INCREASE
POP OVERALL CLOSER TO 100 PERCENT SINCE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS VERY
HIGH. REMOVED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ASSUMING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LINE...IT SHOULD REACH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BETWEEN 14-16Z AND
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THERE AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS OF 3 AM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
UPSTATE NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ACROSS VT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN
ZONES EARLY ON AS WELL. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NY WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF
THE BAND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN MIDDAY.
SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER THIS BAND CLEARS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REDEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...ONE OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
SOME MODEL DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LONG AND LOOPING LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF A FEW
PERSISTENT DISCRETE CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER ANY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND SHOULD BRING A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE.

LOW PRESSURE...RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD EXIST GIVEN PLENTIFUL WIND SHEAR AND A
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LCL/S. THEREFORE...IF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS A
PORTION OF THE AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A WHILE...A
WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COME TO AN END TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES. TUESDAY WILL SEE A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE WSW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM BUT STILL A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THRU THE WEEK. A DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY WHETHER
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE TROUGH THRU NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. GFS SEEMS MOST
PRONOUNCED WHILE EURO DAMPENS IT OUT. WILL KEEP THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS PER SUPERBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE
END OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE TROUGH SO LOW CHANCE
POPS WILL PREVAIL ALMOST DAILY AS A HEDGE.

WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING TO THE W THRU THE WEEK...DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE AND REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY IFR ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WE EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO
BE THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOW
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
AS DRIER AND MORE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BRIEFLY LOWERING
CEILINGS TO MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...DUE TO A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO SEAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING
5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 271629
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1229 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1230PM UPDATE..
BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER IS MOVING OUT OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND INTO WESTERN MAINE. GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS VERY
WELL... THOUGH DID UPDATE SKY COVER AND QPF FIELDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY UNIFORM AT BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.5 INCHES AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH... THOUGH THEY MIGHT DECREASE A BIT AS IT MOVES
EAST. WHILE ONE EYE MONITORS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS... THE
OTHER EYE IS NOW TURNING UPSTREAM WHERE A VORT MAX OVER UPSTATE
NEW YORK IS BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RAIN WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WAVE. WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LOW
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO AID CYCLONICALLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
THIS IS ALL CONTINGENT UPON ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION IN THE
REMAINING HOURS OF THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

9AM UPDATE... LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING STEADILY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO VERMONT THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP FORECAST TO
BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL AND HAVE INCREASE
POP OVERALL CLOSER TO 100 PERCENT SINCE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS VERY
HIGH. REMOVED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ASSUMING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LINE...IT SHOULD REACH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BETWEEN 14-16Z AND
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THERE AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS OF 3 AM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
UPSTATE NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ACROSS VT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN
ZONES EARLY ON AS WELL. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NY WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF
THE BAND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN MIDDAY.
SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER THIS BAND CLEARS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REDEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...ONE OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
SOME MODEL DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LONG AND LOOPING LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF A FEW
PERSISTENT DISCRETE CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER ANY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND SHOULD BRING A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE.

LOW PRESSURE...RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD EXIST GIVEN PLENTIFUL WIND SHEAR AND A
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LCL/S. THEREFORE...IF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS A
PORTION OF THE AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A WHILE...A
WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COME TO AN END TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES. TUESDAY WILL SEE A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE WSW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM BUT STILL A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THRU THE WEEK. A DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY WHETHER
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE TROUGH THRU NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. GFS SEEMS MOST
PRONOUNCED WHILE EURO DAMPENS IT OUT. WILL KEEP THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS PER SUPERBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE
END OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE TROUGH SO LOW CHANCE
POPS WILL PREVAIL ALMOST DAILY AS A HEDGE.

WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING TO THE W THRU THE WEEK...DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE AND REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY IFR ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WE EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO
BE THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOW
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
AS DRIER AND MORE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BRIEFLY LOWERING
CEILINGS TO MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...DUE TO A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO SEAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING
5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 271557
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1157 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE GRIDS
W/TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING A DECENT NOSE OF INSTABILITY FROM THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION UP THROUGH NORTHERN. 0-6KM SHEAR FROM
THE SOUNDINGS SHOWED UP TO 20+ KTS. SO SOME GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. SB CAPES ARE CLOSING IN BETWEEN 700-1000 JOULES ATTM
W/THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPE "SKINNY CAPE" IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE THAT WORDING OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SPC ADJUSTED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK TO PUT NEW ENGLAND IN A GENERAL
OUTLOOK FOR TSTMS INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 271557
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1157 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE...ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE GRIDS
W/TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING A DECENT NOSE OF INSTABILITY FROM THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION UP THROUGH NORTHERN. 0-6KM SHEAR FROM
THE SOUNDINGS SHOWED UP TO 20+ KTS. SO SOME GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. SB CAPES ARE CLOSING IN BETWEEN 700-1000 JOULES ATTM
W/THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPE "SKINNY CAPE" IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE THAT WORDING OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SPC ADJUSTED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK TO PUT NEW ENGLAND IN A GENERAL
OUTLOOK FOR TSTMS INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT





000
FXUS61 KCAR 271407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BY ABOUT 2 HRS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
LOOPS. BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS RUNNING N ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS INTO QUEBEC. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE
STILL WELL BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC DOWN ACROSS VT & NH. THIS
AREA IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR. THIS LARGER AREA
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 1 PM. BOTH MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO BECOME STRONG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT AND GOOD HEATING. ANOTHER AREA WILL BE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AS MSAS AND LAPS SHOW A NOSE OF INSTABILITY(LIS AROUND -3)
PUSHING INTO THIS AREA. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION PER 13Z OBS W/LIS DOWN TO -4 AND SB
CAPES AT 800 J/KG. POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA FOR SOME HAIL AND EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS CAN BUILD ALONG W/HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL MONITOR
THIS REGION THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED WORDING.

ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES NE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z CAR SOUNDING QUITE STABLE TO START BUT HEATING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON COULD CHANGE THINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 271407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BY ABOUT 2 HRS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
LOOPS. BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS RUNNING N ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS INTO QUEBEC. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE
STILL WELL BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC DOWN ACROSS VT & NH. THIS
AREA IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR. THIS LARGER AREA
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 1 PM. BOTH MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO BECOME STRONG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT AND GOOD HEATING. ANOTHER AREA WILL BE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AS MSAS AND LAPS SHOW A NOSE OF INSTABILITY(LIS AROUND -3)
PUSHING INTO THIS AREA. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION PER 13Z OBS W/LIS DOWN TO -4 AND SB
CAPES AT 800 J/KG. POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA FOR SOME HAIL AND EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS CAN BUILD ALONG W/HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL MONITOR
THIS REGION THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED WORDING.

ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES NE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z CAR SOUNDING QUITE STABLE TO START BUT HEATING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON COULD CHANGE THINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 271407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BY ABOUT 2 HRS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
LOOPS. BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS RUNNING N ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS INTO QUEBEC. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE
STILL WELL BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC DOWN ACROSS VT & NH. THIS
AREA IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR. THIS LARGER AREA
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 1 PM. BOTH MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO BECOME STRONG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT AND GOOD HEATING. ANOTHER AREA WILL BE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AS MSAS AND LAPS SHOW A NOSE OF INSTABILITY(LIS AROUND -3)
PUSHING INTO THIS AREA. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION PER 13Z OBS W/LIS DOWN TO -4 AND SB
CAPES AT 800 J/KG. POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA FOR SOME HAIL AND EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS CAN BUILD ALONG W/HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL MONITOR
THIS REGION THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED WORDING.

ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES NE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z CAR SOUNDING QUITE STABLE TO START BUT HEATING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON COULD CHANGE THINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 271407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BY ABOUT 2 HRS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
LOOPS. BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS RUNNING N ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS INTO QUEBEC. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE
STILL WELL BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC DOWN ACROSS VT & NH. THIS
AREA IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR. THIS LARGER AREA
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 1 PM. BOTH MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS TO BECOME STRONG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT AND GOOD HEATING. ANOTHER AREA WILL BE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AS MSAS AND LAPS SHOW A NOSE OF INSTABILITY(LIS AROUND -3)
PUSHING INTO THIS AREA. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION PER 13Z OBS W/LIS DOWN TO -4 AND SB
CAPES AT 800 J/KG. POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA FOR SOME HAIL AND EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS CAN BUILD ALONG W/HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL MONITOR
THIS REGION THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED WORDING.

ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES NE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z CAR SOUNDING QUITE STABLE TO START BUT HEATING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON COULD CHANGE THINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 271255
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
855 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
9AM UPDATE... LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING STEADILY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO VERMONT THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP FORECAST TO
BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL AND HAVE INCREASE
POP OVERALL CLOSER TO 100 PERCENT SINCE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS VERY
HIGH. REMOVED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ASSUMING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LINE...IT SHOULD REACH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BETWEEN 14-16Z AND
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THERE AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS OF 3 AM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
UPSTATE NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ACROSS VT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN
ZONES EARLY ON AS WELL. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NY WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF
THE BAND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN MIDDAY.
SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER THIS BAND CLEARS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REDEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...ONE OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
SOME MODEL DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LONG AND LOOPING LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF A FEW
PERSISTENT DISCRETE CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER ANY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND SHOULD BRING A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE.

LOW PRESSURE...RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD EXIST GIVEN PLENTIFUL WIND SHEAR AND A
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LCL/S. THEREFORE...IF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS A
PORTION OF THE AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A WHILE...A
WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COME TO AN END TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES. TUESDAY WILL SEE A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE WSW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM BUT STILL A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THRU THE WEEK. A DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY WHETHER
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE TROUGH THRU NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. GFS SEEMS MOST
PRONOUNCED WHILE EURO DAMPENS IT OUT. WILL KEEP THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS PER SUPERBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE
END OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE TROUGH SO LOW CHANCE
POPS WILL PREVAIL ALMOST DAILY AS A HEDGE.

WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING TO THE W THRU THE WEEK...DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE AND REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY IFR ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WE EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO
BE THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOW
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
AS DRIER AND MORE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BRIEFLY LOWERING
CEILINGS TO MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...DUE TO A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO SEAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING
5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271255
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
855 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
9AM UPDATE... LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING STEADILY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO VERMONT THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP FORECAST TO
BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL AND HAVE INCREASE
POP OVERALL CLOSER TO 100 PERCENT SINCE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS VERY
HIGH. REMOVED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ASSUMING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LINE...IT SHOULD REACH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BETWEEN 14-16Z AND
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THERE AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS OF 3 AM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
UPSTATE NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ACROSS VT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN
ZONES EARLY ON AS WELL. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NY WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF
THE BAND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN MIDDAY.
SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER THIS BAND CLEARS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REDEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...ONE OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
SOME MODEL DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LONG AND LOOPING LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF A FEW
PERSISTENT DISCRETE CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER ANY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND SHOULD BRING A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE.

LOW PRESSURE...RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD EXIST GIVEN PLENTIFUL WIND SHEAR AND A
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LCL/S. THEREFORE...IF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS A
PORTION OF THE AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A WHILE...A
WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COME TO AN END TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES. TUESDAY WILL SEE A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE WSW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM BUT STILL A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THRU THE WEEK. A DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY WHETHER
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE TROUGH THRU NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. GFS SEEMS MOST
PRONOUNCED WHILE EURO DAMPENS IT OUT. WILL KEEP THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS PER SUPERBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE
END OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE TROUGH SO LOW CHANCE
POPS WILL PREVAIL ALMOST DAILY AS A HEDGE.

WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING TO THE W THRU THE WEEK...DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE AND REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY IFR ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WE EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO
BE THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOW
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
AS DRIER AND MORE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BRIEFLY LOWERING
CEILINGS TO MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...DUE TO A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO SEAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING
5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271033
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
633 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ASSUMING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LINE...IT SHOULD REACH THE CT VALLEY BETWEEN 14-16Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THERE AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUSLY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX.

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS OF 3 AM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
UPSTATE NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT WAA
SHOWERS ACROSS VT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN ZONES
EARLY ON AS WELL. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NY WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF
THE BAND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN MIDDAY. SOME
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AFTER THIS BAND CLEARS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REDEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...ONE OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME MODEL DATA
SHOW RELATIVELY LONG AND LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF A FEW PERSISTENT DISCRETE
CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER ANY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND SHOULD BRING A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE.

LOW PRESSURE...RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY ALONG WITH IT/S ATTENDANT STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COULD EXIST GIVEN PLENTIFUL WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LCL/S. THEREFORE...IF THE CENTER OF
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND ALLOWS A PORTION OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AWHILE...A WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLD
TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SFC/UPR LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUE MRNG. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COME TO AN END
TUE MRNG AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES. TUE WILL
SEE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE WSWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
BUT STILL A FEW INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE
MTNS. THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE GT LAKES
THRU THE WEEK. A DISCREPENCY IN THE MODELS FOR THU WHETHER
ANOTHER STG S/WV ROTATES OUT OF THE TROF THRU NRN NEW ENGL
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS. GFS SEEMS MOST PRONOUNCED WHILE
EURO DAMPENS IT OUT. WILL KEEP THU WITH A CHC OF SHWRS AS PER
SUPERBLEND MODEL GUID SUGGESTS. THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY
DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A RISK OF ANOTHER S/WV MOVING
OF THE TROF SO LOW CHC POPS WILL PREVAIL ALMOST DAILY AS A HEDGE.

WITH THE TROF REMAINING TO THE W THRU THE WEEK...DAILY TEMPS WILL
VARY LITTLE AND REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY IFR ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WE EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO
BE THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOW
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHWRS AND TSTMS MON NIGHT.
TUE CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS DRIER AND MORE A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW WDLY SCT AFTN SHWRS
STILL PSBL TUE AND AGAIN WED MAINLY IN THE MTNS BRFLY LWRG CIGS TO
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...DUE TO A PROLONGED SLY FLOW A SCA WILL LKLY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT
AND TUE DUE TO SEAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. BY TUE NIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND
SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER












000
FXUS61 KGYX 271033
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
633 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ASSUMING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LINE...IT SHOULD REACH THE CT VALLEY BETWEEN 14-16Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THERE AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUSLY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX.

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS OF 3 AM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
UPSTATE NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT WAA
SHOWERS ACROSS VT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN ZONES
EARLY ON AS WELL. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NY WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF
THE BAND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN MIDDAY. SOME
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AFTER THIS BAND CLEARS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REDEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...ONE OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME MODEL DATA
SHOW RELATIVELY LONG AND LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF A FEW PERSISTENT DISCRETE
CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER ANY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND SHOULD BRING A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE.

LOW PRESSURE...RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY ALONG WITH IT/S ATTENDANT STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COULD EXIST GIVEN PLENTIFUL WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LCL/S. THEREFORE...IF THE CENTER OF
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND ALLOWS A PORTION OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AWHILE...A WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLD
TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SFC/UPR LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUE MRNG. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COME TO AN END
TUE MRNG AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES. TUE WILL
SEE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE WSWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
BUT STILL A FEW INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE
MTNS. THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE GT LAKES
THRU THE WEEK. A DISCREPENCY IN THE MODELS FOR THU WHETHER
ANOTHER STG S/WV ROTATES OUT OF THE TROF THRU NRN NEW ENGL
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS. GFS SEEMS MOST PRONOUNCED WHILE
EURO DAMPENS IT OUT. WILL KEEP THU WITH A CHC OF SHWRS AS PER
SUPERBLEND MODEL GUID SUGGESTS. THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY
DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A RISK OF ANOTHER S/WV MOVING
OF THE TROF SO LOW CHC POPS WILL PREVAIL ALMOST DAILY AS A HEDGE.

WITH THE TROF REMAINING TO THE W THRU THE WEEK...DAILY TEMPS WILL
VARY LITTLE AND REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY IFR ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WE EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO
BE THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOW
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHWRS AND TSTMS MON NIGHT.
TUE CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS DRIER AND MORE A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW WDLY SCT AFTN SHWRS
STILL PSBL TUE AND AGAIN WED MAINLY IN THE MTNS BRFLY LWRG CIGS TO
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...DUE TO A PROLONGED SLY FLOW A SCA WILL LKLY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT
AND TUE DUE TO SEAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. BY TUE NIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND
SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER













000
FXUS61 KCAR 271028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE ANY
FOG BURNS OFF A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 271028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE ANY
FOG BURNS OFF A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 271028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE ANY
FOG BURNS OFF A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 271028
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE ANY
FOG BURNS OFF A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 270808
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
408 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX.

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS OF 3 AM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
UPSTATE NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT WAA
SHOWERS ACROSS VT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN ZONES
EARLY ON AS WELL. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NY WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF
THE BAND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN MIDDAY. SOME
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AFTER THIS BAND CLEARS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REDEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...ONE OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME MODEL DATA
SHOW RELATIVELY LONG AND LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF A FEW PERSISTENT DISCRETE
CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER ANY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND SHOULD BRING A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE.

LOW PRESSURE...RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY ALONG WITH IT/S ATTENDANT STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COULD EXIST GIVEN PLENTIFUL WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LCL/S. THEREFORE...IF THE CENTER OF
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND ALLOWS A PORTION OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AWHILE...A WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLD
TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SFC/UPR LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUE MRNG. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COME TO AN END
TUE MRNG AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES. TUE WILL
SEE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE WSWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
BUT STILL A FEW INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE
MTNS. THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE GT LAKES
THRU THE WEEK. A DISCREPENCY IN THE MODELS FOR THU WHETHER
ANOTHER STG S/WV ROTATES OUT OF THE TROF THRU NRN NEW ENGL
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS. GFS SEEMS MOST PRONOUNCED WHILE
EURO DAMPENS IT OUT. WILL KEEP THU WITH A CHC OF SHWRS AS PER
SUPERBLEND MODEL GUID SUGGESTS. THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY
DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A RISK OF ANOTHER S/WV MOVING
OF THE TROF SO LOW CHC POPS WILL PREVAIL ALMOST DAILY AS A HEDGE.

WITH THE TROF REMAINING TO THE W THRU THE WEEK...DAILY TEMPS WILL
VARY LITTLE AND REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY IFR ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WE EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO
BE THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOW
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHWRS AND TSTMS MON NIGHT.
TUE CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS DRIER AND MORE A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW WDLY SCT AFTN SHWRS
STILL PSBL TUE AND AGAIN WED MAINLY IN THE MTNS BRFLY LWRG CIGS TO
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...DUE TO A PROLONGED SLY FLOW A SCA WILL LKLY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT
AND TUE DUE TO SEAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. BY TUE NIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND
SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER










000
FXUS61 KGYX 270808
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
408 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX.

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS OF 3 AM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
UPSTATE NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT WAA
SHOWERS ACROSS VT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR WESTERN ZONES
EARLY ON AS WELL. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NY WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. THE BULK OF
THE BAND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN MIDDAY. SOME
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AFTER THIS BAND CLEARS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REDEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...ONE OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME MODEL DATA
SHOW RELATIVELY LONG AND LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. IF A FEW PERSISTENT DISCRETE
CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AFTER ANY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...AND SHOULD BRING A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE.

LOW PRESSURE...RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY ALONG WITH IT/S ATTENDANT STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COULD EXIST GIVEN PLENTIFUL WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LCL/S. THEREFORE...IF THE CENTER OF
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND ALLOWS A PORTION OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AWHILE...A WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLD
TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SFC/UPR LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUE MRNG. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COME TO AN END
TUE MRNG AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES. TUE WILL
SEE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE WSWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
BUT STILL A FEW INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE
MTNS. THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE GT LAKES
THRU THE WEEK. A DISCREPENCY IN THE MODELS FOR THU WHETHER
ANOTHER STG S/WV ROTATES OUT OF THE TROF THRU NRN NEW ENGL
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS. GFS SEEMS MOST PRONOUNCED WHILE
EURO DAMPENS IT OUT. WILL KEEP THU WITH A CHC OF SHWRS AS PER
SUPERBLEND MODEL GUID SUGGESTS. THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY
DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL A RISK OF ANOTHER S/WV MOVING
OF THE TROF SO LOW CHC POPS WILL PREVAIL ALMOST DAILY AS A HEDGE.

WITH THE TROF REMAINING TO THE W THRU THE WEEK...DAILY TEMPS WILL
VARY LITTLE AND REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY IFR ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WE EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO
BE THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOW
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHWRS AND TSTMS MON NIGHT.
TUE CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS DRIER AND MORE A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW WDLY SCT AFTN SHWRS
STILL PSBL TUE AND AGAIN WED MAINLY IN THE MTNS BRFLY LWRG CIGS TO
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...DUE TO A PROLONGED SLY FLOW A SCA WILL LKLY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT
AND TUE DUE TO SEAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. BY TUE NIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND
SW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER









000
FXUS61 KCAR 270735
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 270735
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS THE PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROF COINCIDES
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. SB CAPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 KT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH WITH PW/S INCREASING THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHERLY BL WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FOG MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
AREV ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK. A VERY SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
BE DRAPED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/EASTERN QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.

TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL EXIT THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND GIVES NORTHERN MAINE A GOOD
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT DO THINK THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
FAR DOWNEAST OR JUST OFF SHORE, WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY ALL NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. WHILE NO ONE DAY PARTICULARLY LOOKS TO BE A
WASHOUT, CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED THUS NO MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST QUITE YET.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. PREVAILING VFR NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT IN AREAS
OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE
NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING WAVES UP TO
8-10 FEET. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET LOOK MORE REASONABLE, THOUGH EVEN
THIS COULD BE TOO GENEROUS. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS









000
FXUS61 KCAR 270429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1229 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL END BY SUNDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES MOVING NE
ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE
THROUGH 500MBS ALONG PWATS APPROACHING 1.5". DECENT SSW INFLOW AS
WELL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKS INTERESTING W/SB CAPES
AVERAGING 800-1200 J/KG AND LIS DROPPING TO -5. THERE IS DECENT
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR W/0-6KM OF UP TO 30KTS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THERE AND THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND
11,500 FT W/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
70F. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE LOW TO
MID 70S. SO, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE REGION GETS ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING. REASONS BEING
ARE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST(6.0 C/KM) AND
THE EXTENT OF THE BUOYANCY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SAYING THAT
STORMS CANNOT BECOME STRONG, IT IS JUST THE CONFIDENCE ATTM IN NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX.
THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LEAD SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS
IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES...WITH A STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL CAPE SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF T-STORMS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT AS WET FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY AND SW FLOW ALOFT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 600 DM JUST EAST OF LABRADOR LATE IN THE WEEK!  THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SW FLOW ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME MID-LATE WEEK...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS
WEAK AND LIKELY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...AND THUS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WITH ANY FOG AND
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMES OF IFR OR EVEN
VLIFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.  LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE MORNING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY VFR FOR
WED-THU...BUT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES WEST OF THE WATERS AND SEAS BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FT. THE WIND AND SEAS LOOK TOO HIGH ON THE WNAWAVE AND WERE
UNCUT BY A FAIR AMOUNT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/CB
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 270242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1042 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO REACH NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MUCH OF TONIGHT THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE. COULD ALSO
HAVE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL END BY SUNDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES MOVING NE
ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE
THROUGH 500MBS ALONG PWATS APPROACHING 1.5". DECENT SSW INFLOW AS
WELL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKS INTERESTING W/SB CAPES
AVERAGING 800-1200 J/KG AND LIS DROPPING TO -5. THERE IS DECENT
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR W/0-6KM OF UP TO 30KTS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THERE AND THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND
11,500 FT W/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
70F. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE LOW TO
MID 70S. SO, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE REGION GETS ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING. REASONS BEING
ARE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST(6.0 C/KM) AND
THE EXTENT OF THE BUOYANCY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SAYING THAT
STORMS CANNOT BECOME STRONG, IT IS JUST THE CONFIDENCE ATTM IN NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX.
THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LEAD SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS
IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES...WITH A STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL CAPE SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF T-STORMS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT AS WET FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY AND SW FLOW ALOFT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 600 DM JUST EAST OF LABRADOR LATE IN THE WEEK!  THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SW FLOW ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME MID-LATE WEEK...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS
WEAK AND LIKELY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...AND THUS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WITH ANY FOG AND
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMES OF IFR OR EVEN
VLIFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.  LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE MORNING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY VFR FOR
WED-THU...BUT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES WEST OF THE WATERS AND SEAS BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FT. THE WIND AND SEAS LOOK TOO HIGH ON THE WNAWAVE AND WERE
UNCUT BY A FAIR AMOUNT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 270242
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1042 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO REACH NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MUCH OF TONIGHT THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE. COULD ALSO
HAVE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL END BY SUNDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES MOVING NE
ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE
THROUGH 500MBS ALONG PWATS APPROACHING 1.5". DECENT SSW INFLOW AS
WELL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKS INTERESTING W/SB CAPES
AVERAGING 800-1200 J/KG AND LIS DROPPING TO -5. THERE IS DECENT
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR W/0-6KM OF UP TO 30KTS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THERE AND THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND
11,500 FT W/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND
70F. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE LOW TO
MID 70S. SO, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE REGION GETS ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING. REASONS BEING
ARE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST(6.0 C/KM) AND
THE EXTENT OF THE BUOYANCY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SAYING THAT
STORMS CANNOT BECOME STRONG, IT IS JUST THE CONFIDENCE ATTM IN NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX.
THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LEAD SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS
IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES...WITH A STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL CAPE SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF T-STORMS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT AS WET FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY AND SW FLOW ALOFT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 600 DM JUST EAST OF LABRADOR LATE IN THE WEEK!  THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SW FLOW ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME MID-LATE WEEK...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS
WEAK AND LIKELY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...AND THUS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR WITH ANY FOG AND
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMES OF IFR OR EVEN
VLIFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.  LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE MORNING WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY VFR FOR
WED-THU...BUT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES WEST OF THE WATERS AND SEAS BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FT. THE WIND AND SEAS LOOK TOO HIGH ON THE WNAWAVE AND WERE
UNCUT BY A FAIR AMOUNT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 270146
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT... WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN A FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
945 PM...SCALED BACK POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS
MID-LVL AND UPPR LVL FORCING DONT COME TOGETHER UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RAD COOLING IN THE
SHELTERED VLYS...AND MINS JUST A TOUCH COOLER THERE. ALSO THINK IT
WILL BE CLR ENOUGH TO GET SOME VLY FOG GOING...AND MAYBE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGH TDS IN THE MARINE LYR NEAR THE COAST...MAY SEE SOME
FOG THERE AS WELL.

530 PM...BASED ON A PRETTY STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO JUST SLT CHC IN WRN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ADJUSTED MINS AND T/TD A BIT AS WELL TO REFLECT EARLIER
MINS IN THE N AND W ZONES /CLOSER TO 06Z/ BASED ON THE INCOMING
CLOUDS. ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES TO SUNDAY FORECAST.

PREVIOUSLY...CUMULUS FIELD HAS EXPANDED A LOT THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAS NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH WHERE A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO AID A SHOWER OR TWO IN FORMING.

MODELS ARE NOW PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DELAYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH AS THEY BOTH CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL MAJOR MODELS NOW HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE UNTIL
AROUND 12Z. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ARE LOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AND ONLY INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE. WITH FAIRLY MOIST AIR
AROUND... TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
530 PM UPDATE...THE TIMING OF THE WEAK UPPER LVL WAVE AND THE LOW
LVL WARM FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT SWINGS THRU SW NH IN THE MONRING...AND THEN HEADS NNE
ACROSS NH AND INTO THE MTNS OF WRN ME. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO COVER
THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...AND KEEP POPS CHC/SCT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF ME. THE UPPER LVL WAVE DOES LAG A BIT...AND COULD
SEE SONME CONVECTION GENERATE IN THE SRN ZONE WARM SECTOR OR ON
THE MARINE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WOULD BE THE
BEST CHC FOR STRONG STORMS.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH PRONOUNCED LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK... BUT WIND SHEAR WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IF INSTABILITY WERE HIGHER.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO ADD SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK SPIN UPS BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THINK THAT WITH THE STRONG LIFT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH... WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL TEND TO PREVENT THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH
HEAT TO THE SURFACE TO INCREASE INSTABILITY... AND THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY ONE STORM FROM ACCESSING ENOUGH OF
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE TROUGH GETS HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ACTS TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER... IF THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT EARLY ENOUGH...
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE. CURRENT STORM PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT... WITH A MORE DISTINCT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... REMINISCENT OF A
WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WITH A SHARPENING WARM FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND RAIN SPREADING NORTH ABOVE THIS FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STILL A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
JUST A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU ALMOST THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD... ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WELL
TO OUR N ON MONDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVES SE THRU THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THEN TO THE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT
ROTATES AROUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CUTOFF LOW.
A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NE THRU NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW BECOMES STALLED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW PROVIDING A BROAD SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH NEARLY PARALLELS THE NOW
STALLING FRONT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO FORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AND
TRACKS N NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY THRU
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING N
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
GOING WITH THE RISK OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY GO
WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU
SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST... PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED (AND IFR POSSIBLE) MAINLY TOWARD THE
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO MOVE IN
OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT... THOUGH THIS WAS NOT SEEN AS
LIKELY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING... BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY... LIKELY
DROPPING TO IFR BY MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLE WEATHER. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN STILL A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...S SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE SCA WIND GUSTS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PROLONGED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SEAS TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR OR JUST E OF THE WATERS TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS AND ALLOWING THE ROUGH SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 270146
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT... WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN A FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
945 PM...SCALED BACK POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS
MID-LVL AND UPPR LVL FORCING DONT COME TOGETHER UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RAD COOLING IN THE
SHELTERED VLYS...AND MINS JUST A TOUCH COOLER THERE. ALSO THINK IT
WILL BE CLR ENOUGH TO GET SOME VLY FOG GOING...AND MAYBE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGH TDS IN THE MARINE LYR NEAR THE COAST...MAY SEE SOME
FOG THERE AS WELL.

530 PM...BASED ON A PRETTY STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO JUST SLT CHC IN WRN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ADJUSTED MINS AND T/TD A BIT AS WELL TO REFLECT EARLIER
MINS IN THE N AND W ZONES /CLOSER TO 06Z/ BASED ON THE INCOMING
CLOUDS. ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES TO SUNDAY FORECAST.

PREVIOUSLY...CUMULUS FIELD HAS EXPANDED A LOT THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAS NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH WHERE A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO AID A SHOWER OR TWO IN FORMING.

MODELS ARE NOW PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DELAYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH AS THEY BOTH CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL MAJOR MODELS NOW HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE UNTIL
AROUND 12Z. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ARE LOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AND ONLY INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE. WITH FAIRLY MOIST AIR
AROUND... TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
530 PM UPDATE...THE TIMING OF THE WEAK UPPER LVL WAVE AND THE LOW
LVL WARM FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT SWINGS THRU SW NH IN THE MONRING...AND THEN HEADS NNE
ACROSS NH AND INTO THE MTNS OF WRN ME. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO COVER
THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...AND KEEP POPS CHC/SCT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF ME. THE UPPER LVL WAVE DOES LAG A BIT...AND COULD
SEE SONME CONVECTION GENERATE IN THE SRN ZONE WARM SECTOR OR ON
THE MARINE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WOULD BE THE
BEST CHC FOR STRONG STORMS.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH PRONOUNCED LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK... BUT WIND SHEAR WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IF INSTABILITY WERE HIGHER.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO ADD SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK SPIN UPS BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THINK THAT WITH THE STRONG LIFT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH... WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL TEND TO PREVENT THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH
HEAT TO THE SURFACE TO INCREASE INSTABILITY... AND THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY ONE STORM FROM ACCESSING ENOUGH OF
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE TROUGH GETS HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ACTS TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER... IF THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT EARLY ENOUGH...
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE. CURRENT STORM PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT... WITH A MORE DISTINCT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... REMINISCENT OF A
WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WITH A SHARPENING WARM FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND RAIN SPREADING NORTH ABOVE THIS FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STILL A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
JUST A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU ALMOST THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD... ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WELL
TO OUR N ON MONDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVES SE THRU THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THEN TO THE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT
ROTATES AROUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CUTOFF LOW.
A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NE THRU NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW BECOMES STALLED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW PROVIDING A BROAD SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH NEARLY PARALLELS THE NOW
STALLING FRONT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO FORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AND
TRACKS N NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY THRU
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING N
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
GOING WITH THE RISK OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY GO
WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU
SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST... PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED (AND IFR POSSIBLE) MAINLY TOWARD THE
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO MOVE IN
OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT... THOUGH THIS WAS NOT SEEN AS
LIKELY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING... BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY... LIKELY
DROPPING TO IFR BY MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLE WEATHER. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN STILL A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...S SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE SCA WIND GUSTS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PROLONGED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SEAS TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR OR JUST E OF THE WATERS TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS AND ALLOWING THE ROUGH SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 270146
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT... WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN A FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
945 PM...SCALED BACK POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS
MID-LVL AND UPPR LVL FORCING DONT COME TOGETHER UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RAD COOLING IN THE
SHELTERED VLYS...AND MINS JUST A TOUCH COOLER THERE. ALSO THINK IT
WILL BE CLR ENOUGH TO GET SOME VLY FOG GOING...AND MAYBE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGH TDS IN THE MARINE LYR NEAR THE COAST...MAY SEE SOME
FOG THERE AS WELL.

530 PM...BASED ON A PRETTY STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO JUST SLT CHC IN WRN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ADJUSTED MINS AND T/TD A BIT AS WELL TO REFLECT EARLIER
MINS IN THE N AND W ZONES /CLOSER TO 06Z/ BASED ON THE INCOMING
CLOUDS. ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES TO SUNDAY FORECAST.

PREVIOUSLY...CUMULUS FIELD HAS EXPANDED A LOT THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAS NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH WHERE A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO AID A SHOWER OR TWO IN FORMING.

MODELS ARE NOW PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DELAYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH AS THEY BOTH CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL MAJOR MODELS NOW HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE UNTIL
AROUND 12Z. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ARE LOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AND ONLY INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE. WITH FAIRLY MOIST AIR
AROUND... TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
530 PM UPDATE...THE TIMING OF THE WEAK UPPER LVL WAVE AND THE LOW
LVL WARM FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT SWINGS THRU SW NH IN THE MONRING...AND THEN HEADS NNE
ACROSS NH AND INTO THE MTNS OF WRN ME. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO COVER
THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...AND KEEP POPS CHC/SCT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF ME. THE UPPER LVL WAVE DOES LAG A BIT...AND COULD
SEE SONME CONVECTION GENERATE IN THE SRN ZONE WARM SECTOR OR ON
THE MARINE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WOULD BE THE
BEST CHC FOR STRONG STORMS.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH PRONOUNCED LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK... BUT WIND SHEAR WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IF INSTABILITY WERE HIGHER.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO ADD SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK SPIN UPS BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THINK THAT WITH THE STRONG LIFT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH... WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL TEND TO PREVENT THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH
HEAT TO THE SURFACE TO INCREASE INSTABILITY... AND THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY ONE STORM FROM ACCESSING ENOUGH OF
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE TROUGH GETS HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ACTS TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER... IF THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT EARLY ENOUGH...
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE. CURRENT STORM PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT... WITH A MORE DISTINCT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... REMINISCENT OF A
WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WITH A SHARPENING WARM FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND RAIN SPREADING NORTH ABOVE THIS FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STILL A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
JUST A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU ALMOST THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD... ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WELL
TO OUR N ON MONDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVES SE THRU THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THEN TO THE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT
ROTATES AROUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CUTOFF LOW.
A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NE THRU NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW BECOMES STALLED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW PROVIDING A BROAD SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH NEARLY PARALLELS THE NOW
STALLING FRONT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO FORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AND
TRACKS N NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY THRU
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING N
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
GOING WITH THE RISK OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY GO
WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU
SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST... PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED (AND IFR POSSIBLE) MAINLY TOWARD THE
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO MOVE IN
OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT... THOUGH THIS WAS NOT SEEN AS
LIKELY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING... BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY... LIKELY
DROPPING TO IFR BY MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLE WEATHER. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN STILL A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...S SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE SCA WIND GUSTS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PROLONGED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SEAS TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR OR JUST E OF THE WATERS TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS AND ALLOWING THE ROUGH SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 270146
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT... WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN A FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
945 PM...SCALED BACK POPS/SKY JUST A BIT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS
MID-LVL AND UPPR LVL FORCING DONT COME TOGETHER UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER RAD COOLING IN THE
SHELTERED VLYS...AND MINS JUST A TOUCH COOLER THERE. ALSO THINK IT
WILL BE CLR ENOUGH TO GET SOME VLY FOG GOING...AND MAYBE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGH TDS IN THE MARINE LYR NEAR THE COAST...MAY SEE SOME
FOG THERE AS WELL.

530 PM...BASED ON A PRETTY STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO JUST SLT CHC IN WRN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ADJUSTED MINS AND T/TD A BIT AS WELL TO REFLECT EARLIER
MINS IN THE N AND W ZONES /CLOSER TO 06Z/ BASED ON THE INCOMING
CLOUDS. ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES TO SUNDAY FORECAST.

PREVIOUSLY...CUMULUS FIELD HAS EXPANDED A LOT THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT HAS NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH WHERE A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO AID A SHOWER OR TWO IN FORMING.

MODELS ARE NOW PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DELAYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH AS THEY BOTH CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL MAJOR MODELS NOW HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE UNTIL
AROUND 12Z. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ARE LOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AND ONLY INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE. WITH FAIRLY MOIST AIR
AROUND... TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
530 PM UPDATE...THE TIMING OF THE WEAK UPPER LVL WAVE AND THE LOW
LVL WARM FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT SWINGS THRU SW NH IN THE MONRING...AND THEN HEADS NNE
ACROSS NH AND INTO THE MTNS OF WRN ME. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO COVER
THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...AND KEEP POPS CHC/SCT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF ME. THE UPPER LVL WAVE DOES LAG A BIT...AND COULD
SEE SONME CONVECTION GENERATE IN THE SRN ZONE WARM SECTOR OR ON
THE MARINE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WOULD BE THE
BEST CHC FOR STRONG STORMS.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH PRONOUNCED LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK... BUT WIND SHEAR WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IF INSTABILITY WERE HIGHER.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO ADD SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK SPIN UPS BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THINK THAT WITH THE STRONG LIFT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH... WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL TEND TO PREVENT THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH
HEAT TO THE SURFACE TO INCREASE INSTABILITY... AND THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY ONE STORM FROM ACCESSING ENOUGH OF
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE TROUGH GETS HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ACTS TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER... IF THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT EARLY ENOUGH...
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE. CURRENT STORM PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT... WITH A MORE DISTINCT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... REMINISCENT OF A
WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WITH A SHARPENING WARM FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND RAIN SPREADING NORTH ABOVE THIS FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STILL A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
JUST A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST THRU ALMOST THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD... ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WELL
TO OUR N ON MONDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVES SE THRU THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THEN TO THE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT
ROTATES AROUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CUTOFF LOW.
A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NE THRU NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW BECOMES STALLED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW PROVIDING A BROAD SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH NEARLY PARALLELS THE NOW
STALLING FRONT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO FORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AND
TRACKS N NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY THRU
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING N
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
GOING WITH THE RISK OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY GO
WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU
SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST... PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED (AND IFR POSSIBLE) MAINLY TOWARD THE
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO MOVE IN
OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT... THOUGH THIS WAS NOT SEEN AS
LIKELY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING... BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY... LIKELY
DROPPING TO IFR BY MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLE WEATHER. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN STILL A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING... BUT PROBABLY NOT TO
THE HEIGHTS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. STILL COULD SEE SOME 5 FT
WAVES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...S SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE SCA WIND GUSTS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PROLONGED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SEAS TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR OR JUST E OF THE WATERS TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS AND ALLOWING THE ROUGH SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities