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000
FXUS61 KCAR 240508
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1208 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THEN
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO
ADD SOME PATCHY FOG FOR DOWNEAST/SOUTHERN REGION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HAVE NOTED THAT BAR HARBOR IS REPORTING 4 SM VISIBILITY, AND
TEMPS ARE APPROACHING DEWPOINTS ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...WINDS....SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL
EXPAND NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COASTAL LOW MOVING APPROACHING FROM EAST COAST AT START OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW ALREADY ENTERING
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND
WRN TRACKING SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF MODEL. STILL FEEL ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT WITH A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY OPTED TO USE A BLEND
WITH MORE GRAVITY GIVEN TO GFS SOLUTION. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OVER DOWNEAST TO NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TAPERING TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH RAPID
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM EXPECT TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTH THOUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT
LAKES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT BY
LATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
SWING ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHNCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN MVFR/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. WILL ISSUE
GALE AND START GALE AT 1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE WATERS STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE REMOVE SCA WITH
ISSUANCE OF GALE. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS NOW LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WAVE GROUP 7-8 FEET/9 SECONDS. THIS WAVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RUNNING
AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SO AFTER
INITIALIZING WITH THE WNA/4 HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER TO
BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. THIS FETCH SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING AS THIS WAVE SYSTEM SUBSIDES... BASED ON WAVE WATCH III
GUIDANCE. A SIGNIFICANT NEW FETCH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD AS WIND FORCING INCREASES. EXPECT
WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/NORCROSS
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 240508
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1208 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THEN
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO
ADD SOME PATCHY FOG FOR DOWNEAST/SOUTHERN REGION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HAVE NOTED THAT BAR HARBOR IS REPORTING 4 SM VISIBILITY, AND
TEMPS ARE APPROACHING DEWPOINTS ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...WINDS....SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL
EXPAND NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COASTAL LOW MOVING APPROACHING FROM EAST COAST AT START OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW ALREADY ENTERING
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND
WRN TRACKING SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF MODEL. STILL FEEL ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT WITH A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY OPTED TO USE A BLEND
WITH MORE GRAVITY GIVEN TO GFS SOLUTION. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OVER DOWNEAST TO NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TAPERING TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH RAPID
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM EXPECT TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTH THOUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT
LAKES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT BY
LATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
SWING ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHNCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN MVFR/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. WILL ISSUE
GALE AND START GALE AT 1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE WATERS STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE REMOVE SCA WITH
ISSUANCE OF GALE. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS NOW LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WAVE GROUP 7-8 FEET/9 SECONDS. THIS WAVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RUNNING
AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SO AFTER
INITIALIZING WITH THE WNA/4 HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER TO
BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. THIS FETCH SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING AS THIS WAVE SYSTEM SUBSIDES... BASED ON WAVE WATCH III
GUIDANCE. A SIGNIFICANT NEW FETCH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD AS WIND FORCING INCREASES. EXPECT
WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/NORCROSS
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 240303
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THEN
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS BACK AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX
THAT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING IN
THE 30S AND WILL HOLD THERE FOR THE NEXT 3 HRS OR SO BEFORE RISING
OVERNIGHT W/WAA TAKING HOLD AND CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE. WINDS WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARD ON MONDAY AS 55 KT JET AT 925MBS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFFECTING MAINLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE
COAST.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...WINDS....SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL
EXPAND NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COASTAL LOW MOVING APPROACHING FROM EAST COAST AT START OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW ALREADY ENTERING
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND
WRN TRACKING SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF MODEL. STILL FEEL ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT WITH A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY OPTED TO USE A BLEND
WITH MORE GRAVITY GIVEN TO GFS SOLUTION. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OVER DOWNEAST TO NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TAPERING TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH RAPID
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM EXPECT TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTH THOUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT
LAKES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT BY
LATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
SWING ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHNCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN MVFR/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. WILL ISSUE
GALE AND START GALE AT 1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE WATERS STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE REMOVE SCA WITH
ISSUANCE OF GALE. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS NOW LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WAVE GROUP 7-8 FEET/9 SECONDS. THIS WAVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RUNNING
AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SO AFTER
INITIALIZING WITH THE WNA/4 HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER TO
BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. THIS FETCH SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING AS THIS WAVE SYSTEM SUBSIDES... BASED ON WAVE WATCH III
GUIDANCE. A SIGNIFICANT NEW FETCH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD AS WIND FORCING INCREASES. EXPECT
WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 240303
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THEN
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS BACK AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX
THAT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING IN
THE 30S AND WILL HOLD THERE FOR THE NEXT 3 HRS OR SO BEFORE RISING
OVERNIGHT W/WAA TAKING HOLD AND CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE. WINDS WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARD ON MONDAY AS 55 KT JET AT 925MBS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFFECTING MAINLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE
COAST.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...WINDS....SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL
EXPAND NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COASTAL LOW MOVING APPROACHING FROM EAST COAST AT START OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW ALREADY ENTERING
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND
WRN TRACKING SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF MODEL. STILL FEEL ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT WITH A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY OPTED TO USE A BLEND
WITH MORE GRAVITY GIVEN TO GFS SOLUTION. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OVER DOWNEAST TO NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TAPERING TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH RAPID
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM EXPECT TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTH THOUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT
LAKES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT BY
LATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
SWING ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHNCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN MVFR/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. WILL ISSUE
GALE AND START GALE AT 1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE WATERS STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE REMOVE SCA WITH
ISSUANCE OF GALE. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS NOW LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WAVE GROUP 7-8 FEET/9 SECONDS. THIS WAVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RUNNING
AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SO AFTER
INITIALIZING WITH THE WNA/4 HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER TO
BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. THIS FETCH SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING AS THIS WAVE SYSTEM SUBSIDES... BASED ON WAVE WATCH III
GUIDANCE. A SIGNIFICANT NEW FETCH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD AS WIND FORCING INCREASES. EXPECT
WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 240218
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL A LITTLE
BIT...BASICALLY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD GET
INTO THE CONCORD NH AREA AROUND 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR...THEN
ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THERE AND GETTING INTO PORTLAND BY 5 OR 6
AM.

630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 240218
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL A LITTLE
BIT...BASICALLY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD GET
INTO THE CONCORD NH AREA AROUND 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR...THEN
ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THERE AND GETTING INTO PORTLAND BY 5 OR 6
AM.

630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
630 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
630 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 232240
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
540 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD
AS INITIAL CONDITIONS DICTATE THIS TO BE THE CASE. TEMPS WILL
SLIDE A FEW DEGREES EARLY TONIGHT, BUT THEY WILL LEVEL OFF AND
THEN STARTING RISING OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LATER TONIGHT A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND MIXED...ESPECIALLY IF OVER-RUNNING
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS...WINDS....SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRANSITION
TO A WARMER AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL
EXPAND NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COASTAL LOW MOVING APPROACHING FROM EAST COAST AT START OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW ALREADY ENTERING
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND
WRN TRACKING SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF MODEL. STILL FEEL ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT WITH A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY OPTED TO USE A BLEND
WITH MORE GRAVITY GIVEN TO GFS SOLUTION. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OVER DOWNEAST TO NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TAPERING TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH RAPID
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM EXPECT TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTH THOUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT
LAKES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT BY
LATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
SWING ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHNCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN MVFR/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. WILL ISSUE
GALE AND START GALE AT 1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE WATERS STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE REMOVE SCA WITH
ISSUANCE OF GALE. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS NOW LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WAVE GROUP 7-8 FEET/9 SECONDS. THIS WAVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RUNNING
AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SO AFTER
INITIALIZING WITH THE WNA/4 HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER TO
BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. THIS FETCH SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING AS THIS WAVE SYSTEM SUBSIDES... BASED ON WAVE WATCH III
GUIDANCE. A SIGNIFICANT NEW FETCH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD AS WIND FORCING INCREASES. EXPECT
WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 232108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
408 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LATER TONIGHT A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND MIXED...ESPECIALLY IF OVER-RUNNING
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS...WINDS....SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRANSITION
TO A WARMER AIR MASS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL
EXPAND NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COASTAL LOW MOVING APPROACHING FROM EAST COAST AT START OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW ALREADY ENTERING
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND
WRN TRACKING SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF MODEL. STILL FEEL ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT WITH A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY OPTED TO USE A BLEND
WITH MORE GRAVITY GIVEN TO GFS SOLUTION. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OVER DOWNEAST TO NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TAPERING TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH RAPID
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM EXPECT TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTH THOUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT
LAKES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT BY
LATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
SWING ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHNCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN MVFR/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. WILL ISSUE
GALE AND START GALE AT 1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE WATERS STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE REMOVE SCA WITH
ISSUANCE OF GALE. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS NOW LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WAVE GROUP 7-8 FEET/9 SECONDS. THIS WAVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RUNNING
AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SO AFTER
INITIALIZING WITH THE WNA/4 HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER TO
BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. THIS FETCH SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING AS THIS WAVE SYSTEM SUBSIDES... BASED ON WAVE WATCH III
GUIDANCE. A SIGNIFICANT NEW FETCH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD AS WIND FORCING INCREASES. EXPECT
WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORCROSS
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 232108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
408 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LATER TONIGHT A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND MIXED...ESPECIALLY IF OVER-RUNNING
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS...WINDS....SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRANSITION
TO A WARMER AIR MASS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL
EXPAND NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COASTAL LOW MOVING APPROACHING FROM EAST COAST AT START OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW ALREADY ENTERING
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND
WRN TRACKING SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF MODEL. STILL FEEL ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT WITH A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY OPTED TO USE A BLEND
WITH MORE GRAVITY GIVEN TO GFS SOLUTION. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OVER DOWNEAST TO NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TAPERING TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH RAPID
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM EXPECT TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTH THOUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT
LAKES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT BY
LATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
SWING ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHNCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN MVFR/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. WILL ISSUE
GALE AND START GALE AT 1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE WATERS STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE REMOVE SCA WITH
ISSUANCE OF GALE. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS NOW LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WAVE GROUP 7-8 FEET/9 SECONDS. THIS WAVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RUNNING
AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SO AFTER
INITIALIZING WITH THE WNA/4 HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER TO
BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. THIS FETCH SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING AS THIS WAVE SYSTEM SUBSIDES... BASED ON WAVE WATCH III
GUIDANCE. A SIGNIFICANT NEW FETCH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD AS WIND FORCING INCREASES. EXPECT
WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORCROSS
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231733
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EST...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE ...DEW POINT AND
WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-
MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS AS
WIND GUSTS FROM 44034 AND 44027 NOW BELOW 25 KNOTS. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL
KEEP SCA UNTIL 2200Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 231733
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1230 EST...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE ...DEW POINT AND
WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-
MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS AS
WIND GUSTS FROM 44034 AND 44027 NOW BELOW 25 KNOTS. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL
KEEP SCA UNTIL 2200Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231631
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1131 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM...DOWNSLOPE REALLY KICKING IN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD WARMING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S
MANY SPOTS, AND WILL PROBABLY ADD A FEW MORE  TO THAT FOR HIGHS.
OTHERWISE CLOUDS LINGER IN THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUN THAN THIS MORNING.

930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0930 EST...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-
MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE: HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS AS WIND GUSTS FROM 44034 AND 44027 NOW BELOW 25 KNOTS. LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP SCA UNTIL 2200Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0930 EST...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-
MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE: HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS AS WIND GUSTS FROM 44034 AND 44027 NOW BELOW 25 KNOTS. LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP SCA UNTIL 2200Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0930 EST...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-
MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE: HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS AS WIND GUSTS FROM 44034 AND 44027 NOW BELOW 25 KNOTS. LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP SCA UNTIL 2200Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0930 EST...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-
MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE: HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS AS WIND GUSTS FROM 44034 AND 44027 NOW BELOW 25 KNOTS. LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP SCA UNTIL 2200Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
930 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
930 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 231055
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
555 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POP, TEMPS, AND
WEATHER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-
MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALSO
STILL HIGH WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO COME DOWN, SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION THE SMALL CRAFT TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 231055
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
555 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POP, TEMPS, AND
WEATHER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-
MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALSO
STILL HIGH WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO COME DOWN, SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION THE SMALL CRAFT TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN
END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH A PEAKS OF SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALSO
STILL HIGH WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO COME DOWN, SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION THE SMALL CRAFT TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230911 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN
END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALSO
STILL HIGH WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO COME DOWN, SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION THE SMALL CRAFT TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230911 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN
END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALSO
STILL HIGH WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO COME DOWN, SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION THE SMALL CRAFT TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230911 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN
END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALSO
STILL HIGH WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO COME DOWN, SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION THE SMALL CRAFT TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230911 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN
END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALSO
STILL HIGH WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO COME DOWN, SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION THE SMALL CRAFT TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230911 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN
END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES
EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALSO
STILL HIGH WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO COME DOWN, SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION THE SMALL CRAFT TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230825
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230825
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230513
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1207 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
     008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230513
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1207 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
     008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230508
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1208 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. A BATCH OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY EXITING DOWNEAST
MAINE INTO SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK, WITH NOT MUCH ELSE VISIBILE ON
RADAR RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AT CURRENT READINGS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS, AND
WEATHER ACCORDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE
DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF
SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL
EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND
ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE
RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE
LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED
TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST
FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230508
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1208 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. A BATCH OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY EXITING DOWNEAST
MAINE INTO SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK, WITH NOT MUCH ELSE VISIBILE ON
RADAR RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AT CURRENT READINGS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS, AND
WEATHER ACCORDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE
DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF
SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL
EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND
ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE
RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE
LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED
TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST
FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230225
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
925 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230225
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
925 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST SO RAISED
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AIR REMAINS VERY DRY AND HAD TO LOWER
DEW POINTS. TEMPS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN ISOLATED AREAS SO
KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO, AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS EASTERN DOWNEAST AREAS SO ADDED SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER, ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AREA.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST SO RAISED
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AIR REMAINS VERY DRY AND HAD TO LOWER
DEW POINTS. TEMPS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN ISOLATED AREAS SO
KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO, AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS EASTERN DOWNEAST AREAS SO ADDED SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER, ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AREA.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222322
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222322
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH IS DIMINISHING.
MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 222257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH IS DIMINISHING.
MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 222257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH IS DIMINISHING.
MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 222257
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH IS DIMINISHING.
MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE
FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY
AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS
DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222019
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE FROM THE
OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW
MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY AIR
ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS DOWN
BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222019
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE FROM THE
OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW
MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY AIR
ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS DOWN
BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222019
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE FROM THE
OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW
MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY AIR
ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS DOWN
BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222019
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS ACROSS
THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE FROM THE
OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW
MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY AIR
ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS DOWN
BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.

NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED
UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN
THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL
CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS
EVENING.

MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON
THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY
THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION
OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE
MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT
DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND
THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500
TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL
USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR
CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS
SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS
FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE &
KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT
18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP
AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP
AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY
EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND
SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK WARM FRONT W/SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE PER THE 16Z ANALYSIS. THE BEST CONVERGENCE WAS ACROSS
FAR NW AND N MAINE. KEPT LIKELY POPS(60%) RIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DROPPED THE POPS BACK AS ONE HEADS SOUTH. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST TO BRING THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO
SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR
RISING OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK WARM FRONT W/SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE PER THE 16Z ANALYSIS. THE BEST CONVERGENCE WAS ACROSS
FAR NW AND N MAINE. KEPT LIKELY POPS(60%) RIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DROPPED THE POPS BACK AS ONE HEADS SOUTH. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST TO BRING THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO
SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR
RISING OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK WARM FRONT W/SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE PER THE 16Z ANALYSIS. THE BEST CONVERGENCE WAS ACROSS
FAR NW AND N MAINE. KEPT LIKELY POPS(60%) RIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DROPPED THE POPS BACK AS ONE HEADS SOUTH. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST TO BRING THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO
SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR
RISING OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221751
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK WARM FRONT W/SOME LLVL
CONVERGENCE PER THE 16Z ANALYSIS. THE BEST CONVERGENCE WAS ACROSS
FAR NW AND N MAINE. KEPT LIKELY POPS(60%) RIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DROPPED THE POPS BACK AS ONE HEADS SOUTH. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST TO BRING THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO
SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR
RISING OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221655
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1155 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0900 AM ... MINOR UPDATE ADJUSTING CURRENT TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221655
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1155 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0900 AM ... MINOR UPDATE ADJUSTING CURRENT TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
844 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0900 AM ... MINOR UPDATE ADJUSTING CURRENT TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
844 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0900 AM ... MINOR UPDATE ADJUSTING CURRENT TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221338
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NW ME
THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP AND OBS. KFVE COMING IN
W/3SM -SN. THE RAP/LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING FROM
850-500MBS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. 12Z UA ANALYSIS
SHOWED 50 KT JET RESIDING AT THE SAME LAYER AIDING IN SOME GOOD
FORCING. DECIDED TO RAMP THE POPS UP ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
60-70% AND ALSO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1+ INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MAINE BORDER. ATTM, TEMPERATURES WERE DOING WELL
W/LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE
AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221338
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NW ME
THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP AND OBS. KFVE COMING IN
W/3SM -SN. THE RAP/LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING FROM
850-500MBS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. 12Z UA ANALYSIS
SHOWED 50 KT JET RESIDING AT THE SAME LAYER AIDING IN SOME GOOD
FORCING. DECIDED TO RAMP THE POPS UP ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
60-70% AND ALSO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1+ INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MAINE BORDER. ATTM, TEMPERATURES WERE DOING WELL
W/LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE
AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221338
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NW ME
THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP AND OBS. KFVE COMING IN
W/3SM -SN. THE RAP/LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING FROM
850-500MBS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. 12Z UA ANALYSIS
SHOWED 50 KT JET RESIDING AT THE SAME LAYER AIDING IN SOME GOOD
FORCING. DECIDED TO RAMP THE POPS UP ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
60-70% AND ALSO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1+ INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MAINE BORDER. ATTM, TEMPERATURES WERE DOING WELL
W/LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE
AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221338
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND NW ME
THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP AND OBS. KFVE COMING IN
W/3SM -SN. THE RAP/LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING FROM
850-500MBS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. 12Z UA ANALYSIS
SHOWED 50 KT JET RESIDING AT THE SAME LAYER AIDING IN SOME GOOD
FORCING. DECIDED TO RAMP THE POPS UP ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
60-70% AND ALSO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1+ INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MAINE BORDER. ATTM, TEMPERATURES WERE DOING WELL
W/LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE
AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221122
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

615 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221122
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

615 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221051
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
551 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THERE`S FAIRLY DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE SO THERE`S PROBABLY NOT MUCH MAKING IT DOWN TO THE
GROUND ATTM, BUT DO EXPECT SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP THE
SURFACE LAYER A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, SKY, AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT CONDTIONS.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND CHANGES WERE MAINLY
COSMETIC WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE
AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
     THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



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