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000
FXUS61 KCAR 271952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR
THE FRONT PASSAGE HAS BEEN DRY BUT EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
ACTIVE AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. LIKE CONSISTENCY OF GFS AND
ECMWF LAST FEW DAYS SO HAVE USED THESE TWO MODELS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION NUMBERS WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS ALL FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE BIAS CONSENSUS RAW WAS USED
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALSO BASED ON VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND
WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. NORTHWEST MAINE HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF COOL TEMPS AS THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN THERE FIRST. WINDS
IN MOST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE WITH TEMPS
NOT GETTING AS COOL AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD BE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST MAINE TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
CRISP, CLEAR DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND VERY DRY AIR/LOW DEW
POINTS.

THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER, MUGGIER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING GENERALLY UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER,
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN AS DISTURBANCES RIDE EAST ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST PLACES WILL GET A WETTING RAIN AT SOME
POINT FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT JUST WHERE AND WHEN
THAT HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT APPEARS THE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTH EARLY ON (LATE SATURDAY TO
EARLY SUNDAY), WITH THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH
THE FRONT TO DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS AN UNSETTLED AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.


SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH VFR EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WIND HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH
NAM12. WILL LOWER SPEED BY 10 PERCENT BASED ON EXPECTED STRENGTH
OF INVERSION LAYER. FOR WAVES: EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE IN LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING
AND BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET/14-15 SECONDS BY MID DAY THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBALWILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL FINALLY DROP TO
BELOW 5 FEET AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
GOING BACK UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET LATE SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO
     2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...MIGNONE/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 271952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR
THE FRONT PASSAGE HAS BEEN DRY BUT EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
ACTIVE AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. LIKE CONSISTENCY OF GFS AND
ECMWF LAST FEW DAYS SO HAVE USED THESE TWO MODELS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION NUMBERS WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS ALL FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE BIAS CONSENSUS RAW WAS USED
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALSO BASED ON VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND
WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. NORTHWEST MAINE HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF COOL TEMPS AS THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN THERE FIRST. WINDS
IN MOST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE WITH TEMPS
NOT GETTING AS COOL AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD BE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST MAINE TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
CRISP, CLEAR DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND VERY DRY AIR/LOW DEW
POINTS.

THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER, MUGGIER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING GENERALLY UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER,
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN AS DISTURBANCES RIDE EAST ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST PLACES WILL GET A WETTING RAIN AT SOME
POINT FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT JUST WHERE AND WHEN
THAT HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT APPEARS THE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTH EARLY ON (LATE SATURDAY TO
EARLY SUNDAY), WITH THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH
THE FRONT TO DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS AN UNSETTLED AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.


SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH VFR EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WIND HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH
NAM12. WILL LOWER SPEED BY 10 PERCENT BASED ON EXPECTED STRENGTH
OF INVERSION LAYER. FOR WAVES: EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE IN LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING
AND BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET/14-15 SECONDS BY MID DAY THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBALWILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL FINALLY DROP TO
BELOW 5 FEET AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
GOING BACK UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET LATE SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO
     2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...MIGNONE/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 271952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR
THE FRONT PASSAGE HAS BEEN DRY BUT EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
ACTIVE AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. LIKE CONSISTENCY OF GFS AND
ECMWF LAST FEW DAYS SO HAVE USED THESE TWO MODELS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION NUMBERS WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS ALL FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE BIAS CONSENSUS RAW WAS USED
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALSO BASED ON VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND
WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. NORTHWEST MAINE HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF COOL TEMPS AS THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN THERE FIRST. WINDS
IN MOST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE WITH TEMPS
NOT GETTING AS COOL AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD BE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST MAINE TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
CRISP, CLEAR DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND VERY DRY AIR/LOW DEW
POINTS.

THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER, MUGGIER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING GENERALLY UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER,
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN AS DISTURBANCES RIDE EAST ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST PLACES WILL GET A WETTING RAIN AT SOME
POINT FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT JUST WHERE AND WHEN
THAT HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT APPEARS THE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTH EARLY ON (LATE SATURDAY TO
EARLY SUNDAY), WITH THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH
THE FRONT TO DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS AN UNSETTLED AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.


SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH VFR EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WIND HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH
NAM12. WILL LOWER SPEED BY 10 PERCENT BASED ON EXPECTED STRENGTH
OF INVERSION LAYER. FOR WAVES: EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE IN LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING
AND BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET/14-15 SECONDS BY MID DAY THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBALWILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL FINALLY DROP TO
BELOW 5 FEET AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
GOING BACK UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET LATE SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO
     2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...MIGNONE/FOISY








000
FXUS61 KCAR 271952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR
THE FRONT PASSAGE HAS BEEN DRY BUT EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
ACTIVE AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. LIKE CONSISTENCY OF GFS AND
ECMWF LAST FEW DAYS SO HAVE USED THESE TWO MODELS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION NUMBERS WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS ALL FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE BIAS CONSENSUS RAW WAS USED
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALSO BASED ON VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND
WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. NORTHWEST MAINE HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF COOL TEMPS AS THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN THERE FIRST. WINDS
IN MOST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE WITH TEMPS
NOT GETTING AS COOL AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD BE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST MAINE TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
CRISP, CLEAR DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND VERY DRY AIR/LOW DEW
POINTS.

THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER, MUGGIER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING GENERALLY UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER,
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN AS DISTURBANCES RIDE EAST ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST PLACES WILL GET A WETTING RAIN AT SOME
POINT FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT JUST WHERE AND WHEN
THAT HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT APPEARS THE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTH EARLY ON (LATE SATURDAY TO
EARLY SUNDAY), WITH THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH
THE FRONT TO DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS AN UNSETTLED AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.


SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH VFR EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WIND HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH
NAM12. WILL LOWER SPEED BY 10 PERCENT BASED ON EXPECTED STRENGTH
OF INVERSION LAYER. FOR WAVES: EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE IN LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING
AND BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET/14-15 SECONDS BY MID DAY THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBALWILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL FINALLY DROP TO
BELOW 5 FEET AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
GOING BACK UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET LATE SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO
     2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...MIGNONE/FOISY







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 271909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A RATHER SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONE FRONT NOW HAS NOW REACHED THE COAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE W. NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CIOLD FRONT AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LATE THIS AFTN OR
EARLY EVENING WITH SCNDY FRONT. A COOLER AND DRIER AMS WILL BE
MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS SLOWLY E.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS THE BULK
OF THE COOL AMS DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AMS TAKES HOLD AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
THE CENTER OF THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THU NIGHT ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WERE ALL WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF ONE
ANOTHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND BRING THE RETURN OF A WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE STILL LOW
EVEN THERE. ON SUNDAY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AND BRING
A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS
THREAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A FRONT
SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HANG AROUND FOR A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT IFR ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE
TNGT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALLOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...MAINLY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT
BAY FOR TNGT THRU THU...WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FT EXPECTED. THE SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST BY THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A RATHER SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONE FRONT NOW HAS NOW REACHED THE COAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE W. NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CIOLD FRONT AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LATE THIS AFTN OR
EARLY EVENING WITH SCNDY FRONT. A COOLER AND DRIER AMS WILL BE
MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS SLOWLY E.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS THE BULK
OF THE COOL AMS DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AMS TAKES HOLD AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
THE CENTER OF THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THU NIGHT ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WERE ALL WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF ONE
ANOTHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND BRING THE RETURN OF A WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE STILL LOW
EVEN THERE. ON SUNDAY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AND BRING
A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS
THREAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A FRONT
SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HANG AROUND FOR A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT IFR ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE
TNGT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALLOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...MAINLY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT
BAY FOR TNGT THRU THU...WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FT EXPECTED. THE SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST BY THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271726
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
126 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE POPS AND WEATHER... ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 271726
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
126 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE POPS AND WEATHER... ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 271726
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
126 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE POPS AND WEATHER... ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 271726
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
126 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE POPS AND WEATHER... ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 271314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE. NO OTHER CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 271314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE. NO OTHER CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 271035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630AM UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORECAST TOWARDS ST JOHN VALLEY FOR
ENTIRE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO
THE SAME NARROW CORRIDOR FROM BANGOR EASTWARD INTO WASHINGTON
COUNTY FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 271035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630AM UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORECAST TOWARDS ST JOHN VALLEY FOR
ENTIRE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO
THE SAME NARROW CORRIDOR FROM BANGOR EASTWARD INTO WASHINGTON
COUNTY FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHEN SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KGYX 271008
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
608 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
605 AM...FORECAST UPDATE TO COVER SHRA MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN
ZONES BEING FORCED BY WEAK 500MB WAVE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING. A
FEW SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE
TWEAKED T/TD/SKY FOR THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS...BUT
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING UNCHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUSLY FOR TODAY...WILL LKLY SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY AFTER
SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
BEGINS TO DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE A SHRA OR TSRA CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANYWHERE WITH THE FROPA...GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...THE
LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS AND A REAL TRIGGER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST...PROBABLY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND THIS WHERE THE
30ISH CHC POPS ARE...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z. THERE ARE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTABILITY GETS IN THE
1000-1500 J-KG RANGE...SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT AN
ORGANIZED CELL CAN GET A LITTLE ROTATION...ASSUMING A SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT CAN GET GOING.

MAX TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 AGAIN...GIVEN INCREASED WSW FLOW...WHICH
WILL DOWNSLOPE AND HELP OUT THE HEATING. COASTAL AREAS THAT DO
WELL WITH DOWNSLOPE...KPWM...COULD GET CLOSE TO 90...DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD WIND DOWN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY
01-02Z. GIVEN THAT MID-UPPR LVL FLOW WILL NOT SHIFT THAT MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THRU THE NIGHT...AND NOT ONLY WILL KEEP MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT COULD SEE SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN SPOTS ON THE COAST. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LOOK
FOR MINS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.

COOLER DRIER WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE THU MORNING...AND SHOULD
SEE GOOD CLEARING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THE COAST...AND
ENOUGH OF A NW WIND FOR DOWNSLOPING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. IN THE MTNS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMT OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY ND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
WITH THE RETURN FLOW USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...GIVEN AN INCREASING SW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY
LYR...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THIS AM...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT KLEB/KCON/KHIE DROPPING TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HRS AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH A CHC OF A TSRA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME FOG
AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE
WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT BAY...WHERE INCREASING SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 5 FT TODAY AND WITH SW WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS...COULD BE
QUITE CHOPPY. SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6
FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST
LATER.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271008
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
608 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
605 AM...FORECAST UPDATE TO COVER SHRA MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN
ZONES BEING FORCED BY WEAK 500MB WAVE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING. A
FEW SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE
TWEAKED T/TD/SKY FOR THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS...BUT
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING UNCHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUSLY FOR TODAY...WILL LKLY SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY AFTER
SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
BEGINS TO DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE A SHRA OR TSRA CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANYWHERE WITH THE FROPA...GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...THE
LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS AND A REAL TRIGGER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST...PROBABLY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND THIS WHERE THE
30ISH CHC POPS ARE...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z. THERE ARE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTABILITY GETS IN THE
1000-1500 J-KG RANGE...SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT AN
ORGANIZED CELL CAN GET A LITTLE ROTATION...ASSUMING A SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT CAN GET GOING.

MAX TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 AGAIN...GIVEN INCREASED WSW FLOW...WHICH
WILL DOWNSLOPE AND HELP OUT THE HEATING. COASTAL AREAS THAT DO
WELL WITH DOWNSLOPE...KPWM...COULD GET CLOSE TO 90...DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD WIND DOWN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY
01-02Z. GIVEN THAT MID-UPPR LVL FLOW WILL NOT SHIFT THAT MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THRU THE NIGHT...AND NOT ONLY WILL KEEP MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT COULD SEE SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN SPOTS ON THE COAST. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LOOK
FOR MINS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.

COOLER DRIER WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE THU MORNING...AND SHOULD
SEE GOOD CLEARING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THE COAST...AND
ENOUGH OF A NW WIND FOR DOWNSLOPING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. IN THE MTNS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMT OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY ND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
WITH THE RETURN FLOW USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...GIVEN AN INCREASING SW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY
LYR...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THIS AM...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT KLEB/KCON/KHIE DROPPING TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HRS AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH A CHC OF A TSRA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME FOG
AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE
WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT BAY...WHERE INCREASING SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 5 FT TODAY AND WITH SW WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS...COULD BE
QUITE CHOPPY. SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6
FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST
LATER.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271008
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
608 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
605 AM...FORECAST UPDATE TO COVER SHRA MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN
ZONES BEING FORCED BY WEAK 500MB WAVE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING. A
FEW SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE
TWEAKED T/TD/SKY FOR THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS...BUT
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING UNCHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUSLY FOR TODAY...WILL LKLY SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY AFTER
SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
BEGINS TO DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE A SHRA OR TSRA CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANYWHERE WITH THE FROPA...GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...THE
LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS AND A REAL TRIGGER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST...PROBABLY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND THIS WHERE THE
30ISH CHC POPS ARE...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z. THERE ARE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTABILITY GETS IN THE
1000-1500 J-KG RANGE...SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT AN
ORGANIZED CELL CAN GET A LITTLE ROTATION...ASSUMING A SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT CAN GET GOING.

MAX TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 AGAIN...GIVEN INCREASED WSW FLOW...WHICH
WILL DOWNSLOPE AND HELP OUT THE HEATING. COASTAL AREAS THAT DO
WELL WITH DOWNSLOPE...KPWM...COULD GET CLOSE TO 90...DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD WIND DOWN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY
01-02Z. GIVEN THAT MID-UPPR LVL FLOW WILL NOT SHIFT THAT MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THRU THE NIGHT...AND NOT ONLY WILL KEEP MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT COULD SEE SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN SPOTS ON THE COAST. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LOOK
FOR MINS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.

COOLER DRIER WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE THU MORNING...AND SHOULD
SEE GOOD CLEARING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THE COAST...AND
ENOUGH OF A NW WIND FOR DOWNSLOPING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. IN THE MTNS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMT OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY ND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
WITH THE RETURN FLOW USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...GIVEN AN INCREASING SW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY
LYR...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THIS AM...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT KLEB/KCON/KHIE DROPPING TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HRS AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH A CHC OF A TSRA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME FOG
AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE
WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT BAY...WHERE INCREASING SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 5 FT TODAY AND WITH SW WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS...COULD BE
QUITE CHOPPY. SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6
FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST
LATER.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271008
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
608 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
605 AM...FORECAST UPDATE TO COVER SHRA MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN
ZONES BEING FORCED BY WEAK 500MB WAVE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING. A
FEW SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE
TWEAKED T/TD/SKY FOR THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS...BUT
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING UNCHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUSLY FOR TODAY...WILL LKLY SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY AFTER
SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
BEGINS TO DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE A SHRA OR TSRA CANNOT BE
RULE OUT ANYWHERE WITH THE FROPA...GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...THE
LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS AND A REAL TRIGGER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST...PROBABLY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND THIS WHERE THE
30ISH CHC POPS ARE...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z. THERE ARE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTABILITY GETS IN THE
1000-1500 J-KG RANGE...SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT AN
ORGANIZED CELL CAN GET A LITTLE ROTATION...ASSUMING A SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT CAN GET GOING.

MAX TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 AGAIN...GIVEN INCREASED WSW FLOW...WHICH
WILL DOWNSLOPE AND HELP OUT THE HEATING. COASTAL AREAS THAT DO
WELL WITH DOWNSLOPE...KPWM...COULD GET CLOSE TO 90...DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD WIND DOWN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY
01-02Z. GIVEN THAT MID-UPPR LVL FLOW WILL NOT SHIFT THAT MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THRU THE NIGHT...AND NOT ONLY WILL KEEP MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT COULD SEE SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN SPOTS ON THE COAST. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LOOK
FOR MINS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.

COOLER DRIER WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE THU MORNING...AND SHOULD
SEE GOOD CLEARING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THE COAST...AND
ENOUGH OF A NW WIND FOR DOWNSLOPING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. IN THE MTNS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMT OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY ND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
WITH THE RETURN FLOW USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...GIVEN AN INCREASING SW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY
LYR...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THIS AM...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT KLEB/KCON/KHIE DROPPING TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HRS AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH A CHC OF A TSRA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME FOG
AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE
WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT BAY...WHERE INCREASING SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 5 FT TODAY AND WITH SW WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS...COULD BE
QUITE CHOPPY. SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6
FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST
LATER.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEEING A FEW SHRA MOVING ALONG THE INTL BORDER OUT OF QUEBEC AND
INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. THESE COULD HOLD TOGETHER TO A FEW SPOTS N
OF RANGELEY A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND ARE BEING HANDLED
WELL BY THE HRRR. THESE SHRA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE OF A
MOISTURE BOUNDARY WITH TDS BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACTUALLY RISING
IN THE N ZONES.

AS FOR TODAY...WILL LKLY SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY AFTER SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE A SHRA OR TSRA CANNOT BE RULE OUT
ANYWHERE WITH THE FROPA...GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF
ANY DYNAMICS AND A REAL TRIGGER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST...PROBABLY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND THIS WHERE THE
30ISH CHC POPS ARE...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z. THERE ARE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTABILITY GETS IN THE
1000-1500 J-KG RANGE...SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT AN
ORGANIZED CELL CAN GET A LITTLE ROTATION...ASSUMING A SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT CAN GET GOING.

MAX TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 AGAIN...GIVEN INCREASED WSW FLOW...WHICH
WILL DOWNSLOPE AND HELP OUT THE HEATING. COASTAL AREAS THAT DO
WELL WITH DOWNSLOPE...KPWM...COULD GET CLOSE TO 90...DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD WIND DOWN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY
01-02Z. GIVEN THAT MID-UPPR LVL FLOW WILL NOT SHIFT THAT MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THRU THE NIGHT...AND NOT ONLY WILL KEEP MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT COULD SEE SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN SPOTS ON THE COAST. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LOOK
FOR MINS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.

COOLER DRIER WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE THU MORNING...AND SHOULD
SEE GOOD CLEARING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THE COAST...AND
ENOUGH OF A NW WIND FOR DOWNSLOPING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. IN THE MTNS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMT OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY ND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
WITH THE RETURN FLOW USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...GIVEN AN INCREASING SW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY
LYR...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THIS AM...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT KLEB/KCON/KHIE DROPPING TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HRS AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH A CHC OF A TSRA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME FOG
AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE
WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT BAY...WHERE INCREASING SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 5 FT TODAY AND WITH SW WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS...COULD BE
QUITE CHOPPY. SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6
FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST
LATER.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEEING A FEW SHRA MOVING ALONG THE INTL BORDER OUT OF QUEBEC AND
INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. THESE COULD HOLD TOGETHER TO A FEW SPOTS N
OF RANGELEY A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND ARE BEING HANDLED
WELL BY THE HRRR. THESE SHRA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE OF A
MOISTURE BOUNDARY WITH TDS BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACTUALLY RISING
IN THE N ZONES.

AS FOR TODAY...WILL LKLY SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY AFTER SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE A SHRA OR TSRA CANNOT BE RULE OUT
ANYWHERE WITH THE FROPA...GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF
ANY DYNAMICS AND A REAL TRIGGER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST...PROBABLY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND THIS WHERE THE
30ISH CHC POPS ARE...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z. THERE ARE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTABILITY GETS IN THE
1000-1500 J-KG RANGE...SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT AN
ORGANIZED CELL CAN GET A LITTLE ROTATION...ASSUMING A SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT CAN GET GOING.

MAX TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 AGAIN...GIVEN INCREASED WSW FLOW...WHICH
WILL DOWNSLOPE AND HELP OUT THE HEATING. COASTAL AREAS THAT DO
WELL WITH DOWNSLOPE...KPWM...COULD GET CLOSE TO 90...DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD WIND DOWN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY
01-02Z. GIVEN THAT MID-UPPR LVL FLOW WILL NOT SHIFT THAT MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THRU THE NIGHT...AND NOT ONLY WILL KEEP MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT COULD SEE SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN SPOTS ON THE COAST. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LOOK
FOR MINS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.

COOLER DRIER WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE THU MORNING...AND SHOULD
SEE GOOD CLEARING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THE COAST...AND
ENOUGH OF A NW WIND FOR DOWNSLOPING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. IN THE MTNS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMT OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY ND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
WITH THE RETURN FLOW USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...GIVEN AN INCREASING SW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY
LYR...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THIS AM...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT KLEB/KCON/KHIE DROPPING TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HRS AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH A CHC OF A TSRA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME FOG
AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE
WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT BAY...WHERE INCREASING SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 5 FT TODAY AND WITH SW WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS...COULD BE
QUITE CHOPPY. SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6
FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST
LATER.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEEING A FEW SHRA MOVING ALONG THE INTL BORDER OUT OF QUEBEC AND
INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. THESE COULD HOLD TOGETHER TO A FEW SPOTS N
OF RANGELEY A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND ARE BEING HANDLED
WELL BY THE HRRR. THESE SHRA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE OF A
MOISTURE BOUNDARY WITH TDS BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACTUALLY RISING
IN THE N ZONES.

AS FOR TODAY...WILL LKLY SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY AFTER SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE A SHRA OR TSRA CANNOT BE RULE OUT
ANYWHERE WITH THE FROPA...GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF
ANY DYNAMICS AND A REAL TRIGGER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST...PROBABLY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND THIS WHERE THE
30ISH CHC POPS ARE...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z. THERE ARE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTABILITY GETS IN THE
1000-1500 J-KG RANGE...SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT AN
ORGANIZED CELL CAN GET A LITTLE ROTATION...ASSUMING A SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT CAN GET GOING.

MAX TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 AGAIN...GIVEN INCREASED WSW FLOW...WHICH
WILL DOWNSLOPE AND HELP OUT THE HEATING. COASTAL AREAS THAT DO
WELL WITH DOWNSLOPE...KPWM...COULD GET CLOSE TO 90...DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD WIND DOWN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY
01-02Z. GIVEN THAT MID-UPPR LVL FLOW WILL NOT SHIFT THAT MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THRU THE NIGHT...AND NOT ONLY WILL KEEP MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT COULD SEE SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN SPOTS ON THE COAST. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LOOK
FOR MINS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.

COOLER DRIER WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE THU MORNING...AND SHOULD
SEE GOOD CLEARING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THE COAST...AND
ENOUGH OF A NW WIND FOR DOWNSLOPING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. IN THE MTNS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMT OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY ND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
WITH THE RETURN FLOW USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...GIVEN AN INCREASING SW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY
LYR...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THIS AM...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT KLEB/KCON/KHIE DROPPING TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HRS AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH A CHC OF A TSRA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME FOG
AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE
WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT BAY...WHERE INCREASING SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 5 FT TODAY AND WITH SW WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS...COULD BE
QUITE CHOPPY. SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6
FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST
LATER.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND COULD
SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEEING A FEW SHRA MOVING ALONG THE INTL BORDER OUT OF QUEBEC AND
INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. THESE COULD HOLD TOGETHER TO A FEW SPOTS N
OF RANGELEY A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND ARE BEING HANDLED
WELL BY THE HRRR. THESE SHRA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE OF A
MOISTURE BOUNDARY WITH TDS BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACTUALLY RISING
IN THE N ZONES.

AS FOR TODAY...WILL LKLY SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY AFTER SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE A SHRA OR TSRA CANNOT BE RULE OUT
ANYWHERE WITH THE FROPA...GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF
ANY DYNAMICS AND A REAL TRIGGER DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST...PROBABLY ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND THIS WHERE THE
30ISH CHC POPS ARE...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z. THERE ARE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INSTABILITY GETS IN THE
1000-1500 J-KG RANGE...SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT AN
ORGANIZED CELL CAN GET A LITTLE ROTATION...ASSUMING A SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT CAN GET GOING.

MAX TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 AGAIN...GIVEN INCREASED WSW FLOW...WHICH
WILL DOWNSLOPE AND HELP OUT THE HEATING. COASTAL AREAS THAT DO
WELL WITH DOWNSLOPE...KPWM...COULD GET CLOSE TO 90...DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD WIND DOWN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY
01-02Z. GIVEN THAT MID-UPPR LVL FLOW WILL NOT SHIFT THAT MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THRU THE NIGHT...AND NOT ONLY WILL KEEP MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT COULD SEE SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN SPOTS ON THE COAST. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LOOK
FOR MINS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.

COOLER DRIER WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE THU MORNING...AND SHOULD
SEE GOOD CLEARING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THE COAST...AND
ENOUGH OF A NW WIND FOR DOWNSLOPING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. IN THE MTNS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMT OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY ND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
WITH THE RETURN FLOW USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...GIVEN AN INCREASING SW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY
LYR...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THIS AM...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT KLEB/KCON/KHIE DROPPING TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HRS AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH A CHC OF A TSRA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME FOG
AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE
WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT BAY...WHERE INCREASING SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 5 FT TODAY AND WITH SW WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS...COULD BE
QUITE CHOPPY. SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 6
FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...AND MAY NEED TO PUSH SCA FURTHER WEST
LATER.

.LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270732
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
332 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.
&&

.CLIMATE...TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
  THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 270732
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
332 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT
LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING.
THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE-
ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE
SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA
THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD
COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF
THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO
P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL
SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF
THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SAT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI
NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY
MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A
DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS
HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD.
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM.
THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING
THE SCA TO START AT 6Z.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO
8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY FRI.
&&

.CLIMATE...TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT
CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN
THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN
1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN
THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
  THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 270416
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1216 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
SOMERSET DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE WITH THUNDERSTORMS RACING EASTWARD
OUT OF QUEBEC. REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM ALL AREAS AS STEADY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION
IN THE COMING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDER WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS METHOD FOR POPS...SKY
AND QPF WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG
AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE
NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALLBLEND
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: COULD HAVE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD
BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG
PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 270416
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1216 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
SOMERSET DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE WITH THUNDERSTORMS RACING EASTWARD
OUT OF QUEBEC. REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM ALL AREAS AS STEADY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION
IN THE COMING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDER WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS METHOD FOR POPS...SKY
AND QPF WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG
AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE
NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALLBLEND
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: COULD HAVE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD
BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG
PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 270416
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1216 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
SOMERSET DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE WITH THUNDERSTORMS RACING EASTWARD
OUT OF QUEBEC. REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM ALL AREAS AS STEADY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION
IN THE COMING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDER WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS METHOD FOR POPS...SKY
AND QPF WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG
AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE
NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALLBLEND
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: COULD HAVE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD
BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG
PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 270416
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1216 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
SOMERSET DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE WITH THUNDERSTORMS RACING EASTWARD
OUT OF QUEBEC. REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM ALL AREAS AS STEADY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION
IN THE COMING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDER WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS METHOD FOR POPS...SKY
AND QPF WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG
AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE
NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALLBLEND
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: COULD HAVE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD
BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG
PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KCAR 270235
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDER WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS METHOD FOR POPS...SKY
AND QPF WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG
AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE
NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALLBLEND
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: COULD HAVE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD
BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG
PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI






000
FXUS61 KCAR 270235
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDER WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS METHOD FOR POPS...SKY
AND QPF WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG
AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE
NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALLBLEND
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: COULD HAVE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD
BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG
PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI







000
FXUS61 KGYX 270201
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
10PM UPDATE...
MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. MAY
SEE A SHOWER IMPACT FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY MORNING AS CONVECTION
FROM QUEBEC DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

6PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TREND. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRID TO REFLECT
ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BY MORNING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT FOR THE USUAL SUSPECT LOCATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
10PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POP VALUES FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST
MODELS GENERATE QPF IN THIS AREA AFTER 18Z AND BEFORE 00Z...
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POP IN THIS TIME PERIOD AND DECREASED IT
AFTERWARD AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE. ALSO WANTED TO
MAKE SURE THAT THE PUBLIC FORECAST INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE IT TAKES AT LEAST 30 PERCENT TO TRIGGER
WORDING IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW... PROVIDED THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RELATIVELY UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTLINE EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT TO SEA.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS
NWLY DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS OCCUR. THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALLOWING A SWLY
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

OVERALL USED THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WITH SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR IN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE WEEKEND MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS MIXED IN WITH WIND WAVES WILL
MAKE FOR CHOPPY SURF CONDITIONS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CASCO BAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150>152- 154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270004
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATER
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60
TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDER WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS METHOD FOR POPS...SKY
AND QPF WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG
AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE
NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALLBLEND
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: COULD HAVE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD WAVE
FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI









000
FXUS61 KCAR 270004
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATER
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60
TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDER WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS METHOD FOR POPS...SKY
AND QPF WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG
AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE
NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALLBLEND
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: COULD HAVE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD WAVE
FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI








000
FXUS61 KGYX 262154
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
554 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TREND. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRID TO REFLECT
ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BY MORNING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT FOR THE USUAL SUSPECT LOCATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RELATIVELY UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTLINE EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT TO SEA.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS
NWLY DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS OCCUR. THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALLOWING A SWLY
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

OVERALL USED THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WITH SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR IN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE WEEKEND MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS MIXED IN WITH WIND WAVES WILL
MAKE FOR CHOPPY SURF CONDITIONS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CASCO BAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262154
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
554 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TREND. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRID TO REFLECT
ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BY MORNING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT FOR THE USUAL SUSPECT LOCATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RELATIVELY UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTLINE EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT TO SEA.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS
NWLY DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS OCCUR. THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALLOWING A SWLY
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

OVERALL USED THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WITH SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR IN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE WEEKEND MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS MIXED IN WITH WIND WAVES WILL
MAKE FOR CHOPPY SURF CONDITIONS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CASCO BAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
256 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EAST/WEST ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER... HOWEVER
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
METHOD FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE
ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON
LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALL BLEND FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITION EXPECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS KFVE WHERE IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE WIND GRIDS WITH NAM12. WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE MID 50S WILL LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 30 PERCENT.
FOR WAVES: CURRENT PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/8-11 SECONDS STILL
FROM EASTERLY WAVE SYSTEM. LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: HE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/OKULSKI










000
FXUS61 KCAR 261856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
256 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EAST/WEST ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER... HOWEVER
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
METHOD FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE
ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON
LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALL BLEND FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITION EXPECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS KFVE WHERE IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE WIND GRIDS WITH NAM12. WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE MID 50S WILL LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 30 PERCENT.
FOR WAVES: CURRENT PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/8-11 SECONDS STILL
FROM EASTERLY WAVE SYSTEM. LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: HE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/OKULSKI










000
FXUS61 KCAR 261856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
256 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EAST/WEST ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER... HOWEVER
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
METHOD FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE
ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON
LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALL BLEND FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITION EXPECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS KFVE WHERE IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE WIND GRIDS WITH NAM12. WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE MID 50S WILL LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 30 PERCENT.
FOR WAVES: CURRENT PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/8-11 SECONDS STILL
FROM EASTERLY WAVE SYSTEM. LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: HE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/OKULSKI










000
FXUS61 KCAR 261856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
256 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EAST/WEST ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER... HOWEVER
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
METHOD FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. MODEL BLEND WILL INCLUDE
ECMWF/SREF/GFS40/CMCREG AND NAM12 FOR POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
SKY AND QPF WILL INCLUDE NAM12/CMCREG/GFS40 AND ECMWF. BASED ON
LATEST BOI-VERIFY WILL USE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND ALL BLEND FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  IT WILL
DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPS EXPERIENCED
SINCE JUNE.  FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...A
TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF VA/NC
BORDER. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE COMBINE
TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THUR
MRNG...THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES EAST TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE INTO NERN ME...WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE
TROPICAL LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO A
POSITION EAST OF NJ...SE OF CAPE COD. BY THUR EVNG...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SE TO THE SE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...THE TROPICAL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BY FRI
MRNG AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA..IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AS A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY SAT EVNG...THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE
FRONT EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS ME. UPPER LVL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW
TO LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH MON EVNG. MON EVNG A HIGH RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITION EXPECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
IS KFVE WHERE IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE WIND GRIDS WITH NAM12. WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE MID 50S WILL LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 30 PERCENT.
FOR WAVES: CURRENT PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/8-11 SECONDS STILL
FROM EASTERLY WAVE SYSTEM. LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM CRISTOBAL
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.


SHORT TERM: HE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST
WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/OKULSKI










000
FXUS61 KGYX 261843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT FOR THE USUAL SUSPECT LOCATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS AND TIMING OF THE
FROPA ON WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RELATIVELY UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTLINE EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIP HEADS OUT TO SEA. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE MTNS
ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXITING UPPER TROF ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS NWLY DOWNSLOPING SFC
WINDS OCCUR. THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES EWD ON SAT
AND SUNDAY ALLOWING A SWLY WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP. THE AMS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO MAINLY DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

OVERALL USED THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WITH SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLD MVFR IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SCT SHWRS OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LWR CONDS TO MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS MIXED IN WITH WIND WAVES WILL
MAKE FOR CHOPPY SURF CONDITIONS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CASCO BAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT FOR THE USUAL SUSPECT LOCATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS AND TIMING OF THE
FROPA ON WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RELATIVELY UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTLINE EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIP HEADS OUT TO SEA. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE MTNS
ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXITING UPPER TROF ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS NWLY DOWNSLOPING SFC
WINDS OCCUR. THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES EWD ON SAT
AND SUNDAY ALLOWING A SWLY WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP. THE AMS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO MAINLY DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

OVERALL USED THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WITH SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLD MVFR IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SCT SHWRS OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LWR CONDS TO MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS MIXED IN WITH WIND WAVES WILL
MAKE FOR CHOPPY SURF CONDITIONS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CASCO BAY.

.LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261747
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
147 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS...OR WILL SO
OVER THE NEXT HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-4 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
COASTLINE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISC...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PUMP HEAT INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF MET/MAV POPS WHICH ONLY
PRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING...IT LOOKS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SFC PUSH BEHIND
IT...AND IT LIKELY TO STAY MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW
LVL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO MIX THE DRIER AIR DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE THU.

500 MB TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL INTERACT WITH CRISTOBAL ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NE...AND COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHRA SPILL DOWN INTO THE MTS THU AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 N...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE S.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SAT...AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A FAIR AMT
OF SUN. BY SAT NIGHT...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WE START TO SEE A CHC OF SHRA OR STORMS...AS INITIALLY
WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 500 MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH MID LVL BAROLCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY
OF CWA...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE THERE SUN THRU TUE.
IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST
TO OUR S...LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND COOL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. AT COASTAL
TERMINALS WED EVE...AND SOME CHC OF FOG NEAR THE COAST LATER WED
NIGHT...BTU GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...WITH VLY FOG THU
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKE SEE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NW ON THU...BUT SHOULD  STAY BLO SCA LVLS. SHOULD GET SOME SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL...AND THIS COULD APPROACH 5-6 FT ON THU. FOR FRI
AND SAT SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261747
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
147 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS...OR WILL SO
OVER THE NEXT HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-4 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
COASTLINE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISC...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PUMP HEAT INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF MET/MAV POPS WHICH ONLY
PRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING...IT LOOKS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SFC PUSH BEHIND
IT...AND IT LIKELY TO STAY MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW
LVL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO MIX THE DRIER AIR DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE THU.

500 MB TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL INTERACT WITH CRISTOBAL ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NE...AND COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHRA SPILL DOWN INTO THE MTS THU AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 N...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE S.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SAT...AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A FAIR AMT
OF SUN. BY SAT NIGHT...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WE START TO SEE A CHC OF SHRA OR STORMS...AS INITIALLY
WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 500 MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH MID LVL BAROLCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY
OF CWA...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE THERE SUN THRU TUE.
IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST
TO OUR S...LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND COOL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. AT COASTAL
TERMINALS WED EVE...AND SOME CHC OF FOG NEAR THE COAST LATER WED
NIGHT...BTU GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...WITH VLY FOG THU
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKE SEE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NW ON THU...BUT SHOULD  STAY BLO SCA LVLS. SHOULD GET SOME SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL...AND THIS COULD APPROACH 5-6 FT ON THU. FOR FRI
AND SAT SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1325 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SKY BASED ON SATELLITE... NO OTHER CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
AREA WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE
TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL DISSOLVE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE...H850 HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER
50S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS QUEBEC
WED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z FRI.

SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY
WED AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THU.

SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THESE AREAS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY. INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DEGREES DOWNEAST WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI AND IS
FOLLOWED BY SOME FLAT RIDGING.  A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
FRI AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES OFF TO THE NW OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT PM MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
LABOR DAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.  THE
WEATHER IS MORE IN QUESTION DOWNEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.  TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY WILL BY SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF AUGUST
AND START OF SEPTEMBER.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.  THE ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO INCLUDE
BHB UNTIL MID MORNING. BGR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: VFR WED WITH TIMES OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  MOSTLY MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL TO KFVE THU WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS.  VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SAT.  MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING NEARLY 20 KTS. PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD TOWARDS 4 FT.

SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THU
FOR SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.  THE SWELL SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING TO BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BACK TO BACK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT CARIBOU.
MONDAY WAS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
CARIBOU.  ON SUNDAY (AUG 24TH) THE HIGH OF 88 DEGREES BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1980.  ON MONDAY (AUGUST 25TH) THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 88 DEGREES.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86
SET IN 1999.  THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT CARIBOU IS 89 DEGREES SET
JUST 2 YEARS AGO IN 2012.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH.  THE RECORD AT BANGOR TODAY IS 98 DEGREES
SET IN 1948...AND THAT RECORD IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SO FAR THIS SUMMER THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 30 DAYS WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER.  THIS COMPARES TO 26 LAST
SUMMER.  THE AVERAGE (1981-2010) NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS AT CARIBOU
DURING THE SUMMER IS 26.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 261326
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
926 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0925 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
AREA WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE
TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL DISSOLVE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE...H850 HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER
50S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS QUEBEC
WED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z FRI.

SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY
WED AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THU.

SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THESE AREAS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY. INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DEGREES DOWNEAST WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI AND IS
FOLLOWED BY SOME FLAT RIDGING.  A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
FRI AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES OFF TO THE NW OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT PM MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
LABOR DAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.  THE
WEATHER IS MORE IN QUESTION DOWNEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.  TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY WILL BY SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF AUGUST
AND START OF SEPTEMBER.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.  THE ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO INCLUDE
BHB UNTIL MID MORNING. BGR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: VFR WED WITH TIMES OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  MOSTLY MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL TO KFVE THU WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS.  VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SAT.  MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING NEARLY 20 KTS. PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD TOWARDS 4 FT.

SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THU
FOR SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.  THE SWELL SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING TO BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BACK TO BACK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT CARIBOU.
MONDAY WAS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
CARIBOU.  ON SUNDAY (AUG 24TH) THE HIGH OF 88 DEGREES BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1980.  ON MONDAY (AUGUST 25TH) THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 88 DEGREES.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86
SET IN 1999.  THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT CARIBOU IS 89 DEGREES SET
JUST 2 YEARS AGO IN 2012.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH.  THE RECORD AT BANGOR TODAY IS 98 DEGREES
SET IN 1948...AND THAT RECORD IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SO FAR THIS SUMMER THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 30 DAYS WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER.  THIS COMPARES TO 26 LAST
SUMMER.  THE AVERAGE (1981-2010) NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS AT CARIBOU
DURING THE SUMMER IS 26.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 261326
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
926 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0925 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
AREA WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE
TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL DISSOLVE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE...H850 HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER
50S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS QUEBEC
WED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z FRI.

SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY
WED AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THU.

SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THESE AREAS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY. INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DEGREES DOWNEAST WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI AND IS
FOLLOWED BY SOME FLAT RIDGING.  A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
FRI AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES OFF TO THE NW OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT PM MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
LABOR DAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.  THE
WEATHER IS MORE IN QUESTION DOWNEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.  TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY WILL BY SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF AUGUST
AND START OF SEPTEMBER.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.  THE ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO INCLUDE
BHB UNTIL MID MORNING. BGR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: VFR WED WITH TIMES OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  MOSTLY MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL TO KFVE THU WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS.  VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SAT.  MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING NEARLY 20 KTS. PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD TOWARDS 4 FT.

SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THU
FOR SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.  THE SWELL SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING TO BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BACK TO BACK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT CARIBOU.
MONDAY WAS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
CARIBOU.  ON SUNDAY (AUG 24TH) THE HIGH OF 88 DEGREES BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1980.  ON MONDAY (AUGUST 25TH) THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 88 DEGREES.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86
SET IN 1999.  THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT CARIBOU IS 89 DEGREES SET
JUST 2 YEARS AGO IN 2012.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH.  THE RECORD AT BANGOR TODAY IS 98 DEGREES
SET IN 1948...AND THAT RECORD IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SO FAR THIS SUMMER THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 30 DAYS WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER.  THIS COMPARES TO 26 LAST
SUMMER.  THE AVERAGE (1981-2010) NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS AT CARIBOU
DURING THE SUMMER IS 26.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KGYX 261304
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
904 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS...OR WILL SO
OVER THE NEXT HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-4 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
COASTLINE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISC...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PUMP HEAT INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF MET/MAV POPS WHICH ONLY
PRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING...IT LOOKS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SFC PUSH BEHIND
IT...AND IT LIKELY TO STAY MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW
LVL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO MIX THE DRIER AIR DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE THU.

500 MB TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL INTERACT WITH CRISTOBAL ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NE...AND COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHRA SPILL DOWN INTO THE MTS THU AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 N...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE S.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SAT...AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A FAIR AMT
OF SUN. BY SAT NIGHT...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WE START TO SEE A CHC OF SHRA OR STORMS...AS INITIALLY
WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 500 MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH MID LVL BAROLCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY
OF CWA...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE THERE SUN THRU TUE.
IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST
TO OUR S...LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND COOL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. AT COASTAL
TERMINALS WED EVE...AND SOME CHC OF FOG NEAR THE COAST LATER WED
NIGHT...BTU GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...WITH VLY FOG THU
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKE SEE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NW ON THU...BUT SHOULD  STAY BLO SCA LVLS. SHOULD GET SOME SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL...AND THIS COULD APPROACH 5-6 FT ON THU. FOR FRI
AND SAT SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261304
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
904 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS...OR WILL SO
OVER THE NEXT HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-4 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
COASTLINE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISC...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PUMP HEAT INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF MET/MAV POPS WHICH ONLY
PRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING...IT LOOKS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SFC PUSH BEHIND
IT...AND IT LIKELY TO STAY MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW
LVL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO MIX THE DRIER AIR DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE THU.

500 MB TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL INTERACT WITH CRISTOBAL ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NE...AND COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHRA SPILL DOWN INTO THE MTS THU AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 N...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE S.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SAT...AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A FAIR AMT
OF SUN. BY SAT NIGHT...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WE START TO SEE A CHC OF SHRA OR STORMS...AS INITIALLY
WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 500 MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH MID LVL BAROLCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY
OF CWA...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE THERE SUN THRU TUE.
IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST
TO OUR S...LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND COOL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. AT COASTAL
TERMINALS WED EVE...AND SOME CHC OF FOG NEAR THE COAST LATER WED
NIGHT...BTU GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...WITH VLY FOG THU
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKE SEE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NW ON THU...BUT SHOULD  STAY BLO SCA LVLS. SHOULD GET SOME SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL...AND THIS COULD APPROACH 5-6 FT ON THU. FOR FRI
AND SAT SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261304
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
904 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS...OR WILL SO
OVER THE NEXT HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-4 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
COASTLINE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISC...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PUMP HEAT INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF MET/MAV POPS WHICH ONLY
PRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING...IT LOOKS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SFC PUSH BEHIND
IT...AND IT LIKELY TO STAY MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW
LVL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO MIX THE DRIER AIR DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE THU.

500 MB TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL INTERACT WITH CRISTOBAL ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NE...AND COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHRA SPILL DOWN INTO THE MTS THU AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 N...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE S.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SAT...AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A FAIR AMT
OF SUN. BY SAT NIGHT...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WE START TO SEE A CHC OF SHRA OR STORMS...AS INITIALLY
WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 500 MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH MID LVL BAROLCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY
OF CWA...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE THERE SUN THRU TUE.
IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST
TO OUR S...LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND COOL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. AT COASTAL
TERMINALS WED EVE...AND SOME CHC OF FOG NEAR THE COAST LATER WED
NIGHT...BTU GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...WITH VLY FOG THU
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKE SEE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NW ON THU...BUT SHOULD  STAY BLO SCA LVLS. SHOULD GET SOME SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL...AND THIS COULD APPROACH 5-6 FT ON THU. FOR FRI
AND SAT SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261304
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
904 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS...OR WILL SO
OVER THE NEXT HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-4 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
COASTLINE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISC...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PUMP HEAT INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF MET/MAV POPS WHICH ONLY
PRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING...IT LOOKS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SFC PUSH BEHIND
IT...AND IT LIKELY TO STAY MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW
LVL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO MIX THE DRIER AIR DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE THU.

500 MB TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL INTERACT WITH CRISTOBAL ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NE...AND COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHRA SPILL DOWN INTO THE MTS THU AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 N...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE S.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SAT...AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A FAIR AMT
OF SUN. BY SAT NIGHT...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WE START TO SEE A CHC OF SHRA OR STORMS...AS INITIALLY
WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 500 MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH MID LVL BAROLCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY
OF CWA...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE THERE SUN THRU TUE.
IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST
TO OUR S...LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND COOL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. AT COASTAL
TERMINALS WED EVE...AND SOME CHC OF FOG NEAR THE COAST LATER WED
NIGHT...BTU GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...WITH VLY FOG THU
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKE SEE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NW ON THU...BUT SHOULD  STAY BLO SCA LVLS. SHOULD GET SOME SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL...AND THIS COULD APPROACH 5-6 FT ON THU. FOR FRI
AND SAT SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615AM UPDATE...
REFINED FOG AND CLOUD FORECASTS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION. TIMING LOOKS THE SAME...BUT MADE SMALL SCALE
ADJUSTMENTS TO EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
AREA WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE
TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL DISSOLVE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE...H850 HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER
50S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS QUEBEC
WED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z FRI.

SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY
WED AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THU.

SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THESE AREAS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY. INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DEGREES DOWNEAST WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI AND IS
FOLLOWED BY SOME FLAT RIDGING.  A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
FRI AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES OFF TO THE NW OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT PM MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
LABOR DAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.  THE
WEATHER IS MORE IN QUESTION DOWNEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.  TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY WILL BY SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF AUGUST
AND START OF SEPTEMBER.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.  THE ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO INCLUDE
BHB UNTIL MID MORNING. BGR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: VFR WED WITH TIMES OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  MOSTLY MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL TO KFVE THU WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS.  VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SAT.  MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING NEARLY 20 KTS. PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD TOWARDS 4 FT.

SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THU
FOR SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.  THE SWELL SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING TO BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BACK TO BACK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT CARIBOU.
MONDAY WAS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
CARIBOU.  ON SUNDAY (AUG 24TH) THE HIGH OF 88 DEGREES BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1980.  ON MONDAY (AUGUST 25TH) THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 88 DEGREES.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86
SET IN 1999.  THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT CARIBOU IS 89 DEGREES SET
JUST 2 YEARS AGO IN 2012.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH.  THE RECORD AT BANGOR TODAY IS 98 DEGREES
SET IN 1948...AND THAT RECORD IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SO FAR THIS SUMMER THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 30 DAYS WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER.  THIS COMPARES TO 26 LAST
SUMMER.  THE AVERAGE (1981-2010) NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS AT CARIBOU
DURING THE SUMMER IS 26.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KCAR 261020
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615AM UPDATE...
REFINED FOG AND CLOUD FORECASTS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE DOWN
EAST REGION. TIMING LOOKS THE SAME...BUT MADE SMALL SCALE
ADJUSTMENTS TO EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF FOG AND STRATUS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
AREA WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE
TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL DISSOLVE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE...H850 HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER
50S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS QUEBEC
WED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z FRI.

SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY
WED AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THU.

SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THESE AREAS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY. INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DEGREES DOWNEAST WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI AND IS
FOLLOWED BY SOME FLAT RIDGING.  A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
FRI AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES OFF TO THE NW OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT PM MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
LABOR DAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.  THE
WEATHER IS MORE IN QUESTION DOWNEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.  TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY WILL BY SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF AUGUST
AND START OF SEPTEMBER.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.  THE ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO INCLUDE
BHB UNTIL MID MORNING. BGR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: VFR WED WITH TIMES OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  MOSTLY MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL TO KFVE THU WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS.  VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SAT.  MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING NEARLY 20 KTS. PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD TOWARDS 4 FT.

SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THU
FOR SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.  THE SWELL SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING TO BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
BACK TO BACK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT CARIBOU.
MONDAY WAS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
CARIBOU.  ON SUNDAY (AUG 24TH) THE HIGH OF 88 DEGREES BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1980.  ON MONDAY (AUGUST 25TH) THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 88 DEGREES.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86
SET IN 1999.  THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT CARIBOU IS 89 DEGREES SET
JUST 2 YEARS AGO IN 2012.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH.  THE RECORD AT BANGOR TODAY IS 98 DEGREES
SET IN 1948...AND THAT RECORD IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SO FAR THIS SUMMER THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 30 DAYS WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER.  THIS COMPARES TO 26 LAST
SUMMER.  THE AVERAGE (1981-2010) NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS AT CARIBOU
DURING THE SUMMER IS 26.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 260716
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
316 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
AREA WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE
TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL DISSOLVE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE...H850 HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER
50S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS QUEBEC
WED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z FRI.

SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY
WED AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THU.

SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THESE AREAS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY. INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DEGREES DOWNEAST WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI AND IS
FOLLOWED BY SOME FLAT RIDGING.  A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
FRI AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES OFF TO THE NW OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT PM MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
LABOR DAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.  THE
WEATHER IS MORE IN QUESTION DOWNEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.  TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY WILL BY SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF AUGUST
AND START OF SEPTEMBER.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.  THE ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO INCLUDE
BHB UNTIL MID MORNING. BGR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: VFR WED WITH TIMES OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  MOSTLY MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL TO KFVE THU WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS.  VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SAT.  MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING NEARLY 20 KTS. PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD TOWARDS 4 FT.

SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THU
FOR SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.  THE SWELL SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING TO BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&

.CLIMATE...BACK TO BACK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT CARIBOU.
MONDAY WAS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
CARIBOU.  ON SUNDAY (AUG 24TH) THE HIGH OF 88 DEGREES BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1980.  ON MONDAY (AUGUST 25TH) THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 88 DEGREES.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86
SET IN 1999.  THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT CARIBOU IS 89 DEGREES SET
JUST 2 YEARS AGO IN 2012.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH.  THE RECORD AT BANGOR TODAY IS 98 DEGREES
SET IN 1948...AND THAT RECORD IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SO FAR THIS SUMMER THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 30 DAYS WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER.  THIS COMPARES TO 26 LAST
SUMMER.  THE AVERAGE (1981-2010) NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS AT CARIBOU
DURING THE SUMMER IS 26.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 260716
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
316 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
AREA WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE
TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL DISSOLVE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE...H850 HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER
50S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALOFT...A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS QUEBEC
WED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z FRI.

SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY
WED AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THU.

SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THESE AREAS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY. INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DEGREES DOWNEAST WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI AND IS
FOLLOWED BY SOME FLAT RIDGING.  A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
FRI AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES OFF TO THE NW OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT PM MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
LABOR DAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.  THE
WEATHER IS MORE IN QUESTION DOWNEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
STALL OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.  TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY WILL BY SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF AUGUST
AND START OF SEPTEMBER.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.  THE ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO INCLUDE
BHB UNTIL MID MORNING. BGR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST.

SHORT TERM: VFR WED WITH TIMES OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  MOSTLY MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL TO KFVE THU WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS.  VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SAT.  MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING NEARLY 20 KTS. PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD TOWARDS 4 FT.

SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THU
FOR SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.  THE SWELL SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING TO BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&

.CLIMATE...BACK TO BACK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT CARIBOU.
MONDAY WAS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
CARIBOU.  ON SUNDAY (AUG 24TH) THE HIGH OF 88 DEGREES BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1980.  ON MONDAY (AUGUST 25TH) THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 88 DEGREES.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86
SET IN 1999.  THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT CARIBOU IS 89 DEGREES SET
JUST 2 YEARS AGO IN 2012.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH.  THE RECORD AT BANGOR TODAY IS 98 DEGREES
SET IN 1948...AND THAT RECORD IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SO FAR THIS SUMMER THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 30 DAYS WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER.  THIS COMPARES TO 26 LAST
SUMMER.  THE AVERAGE (1981-2010) NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS AT CARIBOU
DURING THE SUMMER IS 26.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB









000
FXUS61 KGYX 260657
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PUMP HEAT INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF MET/MAV POPS WHICH ONLY
PRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING...IT LOOKS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SFC PUSH BEHIND
IT...AND IT LIKELY TO STAY MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW
LVL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO MIX THE DRIER AIR DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE THU.

500 MB TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL INTERACT WITH CRISTOBAL ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NE...AND COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHRA SPILL DOWN INTO THE MTS THU AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 N...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE S.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SAT...AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A FAIR AMT
OF SUN. BY SAT NIGHT...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WE START TO SEE A CHC OF SHRA OR STORMS...AS INITIALLY
WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 500 MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH MID LVL BAROLCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY
OF CWA...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE THERE SUN THRU TUE.
IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST
TO OUR S...LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND COOL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. AT COASTAL
TERMINALS WED EVE...AND SOME CHC OF FOG NEAR THE COAST LATER WED
NIGHT...BTU GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...WITH VLY FOG THU
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKE SEE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NW ON THU...BUT SHOULD  STAY BLO SCA LVLS. SHOULD GET SOME SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL...AND THIS COULD APPROACH 5-6 FT ON THU. FOR FRI
AND SAT SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260657
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY
SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PUMP HEAT INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF MET/MAV POPS WHICH ONLY
PRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING...IT LOOKS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SFC PUSH BEHIND
IT...AND IT LIKELY TO STAY MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW
LVL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO MIX THE DRIER AIR DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE THU.

500 MB TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL INTERACT WITH CRISTOBAL ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NE...AND COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHRA SPILL DOWN INTO THE MTS THU AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 N...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE S.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SAT...AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A FAIR AMT
OF SUN. BY SAT NIGHT...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WE START TO SEE A CHC OF SHRA OR STORMS...AS INITIALLY
WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 500 MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH MID LVL BAROLCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY
OF CWA...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE THERE SUN THRU TUE.
IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST
TO OUR S...LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND COOL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. AT COASTAL
TERMINALS WED EVE...AND SOME CHC OF FOG NEAR THE COAST LATER WED
NIGHT...BTU GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...WITH VLY FOG THU
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKE SEE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NW ON THU...BUT SHOULD  STAY BLO SCA LVLS. SHOULD GET SOME SWELL
FROM CRISTOBAL...AND THIS COULD APPROACH 5-6 FT ON THU. FOR FRI
AND SAT SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
REFINED FOG FORECAST FOR COASTAL AREAS AND DOWN EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING. EXCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG NORTH OF DOWN EAST
AREA. INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR TUESDAY AS SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE
SYSTEMS FROM CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 260415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
REFINED FOG FORECAST FOR COASTAL AREAS AND DOWN EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING. EXCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG NORTH OF DOWN EAST
AREA. INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR TUESDAY AS SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE
SYSTEMS FROM CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 260415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
REFINED FOG FORECAST FOR COASTAL AREAS AND DOWN EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING. EXCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG NORTH OF DOWN EAST
AREA. INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR TUESDAY AS SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE
SYSTEMS FROM CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 260415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
REFINED FOG FORECAST FOR COASTAL AREAS AND DOWN EAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING. EXCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG NORTH OF DOWN EAST
AREA. INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR TUESDAY AS SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE
SYSTEMS FROM CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MIGNONE/MCW/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 260239
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1039 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND COASTAL WATERS. THE FOG COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DOWNEAST. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE
SYSTEMS FROM CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...RB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 260239
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1039 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND COASTAL WATERS. THE FOG COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DOWNEAST. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE
SYSTEMS FROM CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...RB







000
FXUS61 KGYX 260123
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
923 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AGAIN WITH NO REAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...MOSTLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
READINGS WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN UNDER
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL REACH +16C BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND A SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT INCREASING WITH TIME.

THIS GRADIENT...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND FOG TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST BECOMES FLATTENED AS A S/WV AND ACCOMPANIED COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
EXPECTED WED...TEMPS WILL BECOME VERY MILD AND MAY APPROACH 90
DEGS IN SOME AREAS. A FEW WDLY SCT SHWRS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
FOR THU AND FRI... A NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REDEVELOP LATER AS AN
UPPER LOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ANCHORED IN THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL
MEAN A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THU
AND FRI. BY THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND A SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF SOME CONVECTION EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELING FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NOT...
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN LATE NOT AND EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG TNGT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY NOT. LEB AND
HIE AFFECTED THE MOST FOLLOWED BY CON AND RKD. THE OTHER TAF
SITES MAY SEE SOME LGT FOG WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON WIG/VSBY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDO.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED WITH NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. WAVES WILL RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS TNGT...IN PART DUE TO HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS OF
8 SECOND OR HIGHER. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
TUESDAY NOT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER PARTS
OF THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NOT.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260123
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
923 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AGAIN WITH NO REAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...MOSTLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
READINGS WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN UNDER
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL REACH +16C BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND A SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT INCREASING WITH TIME.

THIS GRADIENT...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND FOG TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST BECOMES FLATTENED AS A S/WV AND ACCOMPANIED COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
EXPECTED WED...TEMPS WILL BECOME VERY MILD AND MAY APPROACH 90
DEGS IN SOME AREAS. A FEW WDLY SCT SHWRS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
FOR THU AND FRI... A NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REDEVELOP LATER AS AN
UPPER LOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ANCHORED IN THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL
MEAN A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THU
AND FRI. BY THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND A SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF SOME CONVECTION EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELING FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NOT...
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN LATE NOT AND EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG TNGT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY NOT. LEB AND
HIE AFFECTED THE MOST FOLLOWED BY CON AND RKD. THE OTHER TAF
SITES MAY SEE SOME LGT FOG WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON WIG/VSBY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDO.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED WITH NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. WAVES WILL RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS TNGT...IN PART DUE TO HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS OF
8 SECOND OR HIGHER. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
TUESDAY NOT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER PARTS
OF THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NOT.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260123
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
923 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AGAIN WITH NO REAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...MOSTLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
READINGS WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN UNDER
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL REACH +16C BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND A SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT INCREASING WITH TIME.

THIS GRADIENT...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND FOG TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST BECOMES FLATTENED AS A S/WV AND ACCOMPANIED COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
EXPECTED WED...TEMPS WILL BECOME VERY MILD AND MAY APPROACH 90
DEGS IN SOME AREAS. A FEW WDLY SCT SHWRS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
FOR THU AND FRI... A NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REDEVELOP LATER AS AN
UPPER LOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ANCHORED IN THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL
MEAN A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THU
AND FRI. BY THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND A SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF SOME CONVECTION EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELING FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NOT...
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN LATE NOT AND EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG TNGT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY NOT. LEB AND
HIE AFFECTED THE MOST FOLLOWED BY CON AND RKD. THE OTHER TAF
SITES MAY SEE SOME LGT FOG WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON WIG/VSBY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDO.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED WITH NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. WAVES WILL RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS TNGT...IN PART DUE TO HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS OF
8 SECOND OR HIGHER. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
TUESDAY NOT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER PARTS
OF THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NOT.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260123
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
923 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AGAIN WITH NO REAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...MOSTLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
READINGS WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN UNDER
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL REACH +16C BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND A SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT INCREASING WITH TIME.

THIS GRADIENT...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND FOG TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST BECOMES FLATTENED AS A S/WV AND ACCOMPANIED COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
EXPECTED WED...TEMPS WILL BECOME VERY MILD AND MAY APPROACH 90
DEGS IN SOME AREAS. A FEW WDLY SCT SHWRS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
FOR THU AND FRI... A NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REDEVELOP LATER AS AN
UPPER LOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ANCHORED IN THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL
MEAN A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THU
AND FRI. BY THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND A SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF SOME CONVECTION EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELING FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NOT...
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN LATE NOT AND EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG TNGT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY NOT. LEB AND
HIE AFFECTED THE MOST FOLLOWED BY CON AND RKD. THE OTHER TAF
SITES MAY SEE SOME LGT FOG WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON WIG/VSBY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDO.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED WITH NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. WAVES WILL RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS TNGT...IN PART DUE TO HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS OF
8 SECOND OR HIGHER. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU
TUESDAY NOT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER PARTS
OF THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NOT.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252342
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
742 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE SYSTEMS FROM
CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...RB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 252342
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
742 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE SYSTEMS FROM
CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...RB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 252342
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
742 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE SYSTEMS FROM
CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...RB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 252342
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
742 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25 TUESDAY.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALLBLEND WAS
USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW TUESDAY VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE SYSTEMS FROM
CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE
COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89
DEGREES SET IN 2012.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE/OKULSKI
CLIMATE...RB








000
FXUS61 KGYX 252238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STALL OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED WITH NO REAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...MOSTLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
READINGS WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN UNDER
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL REACH +16C BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND A SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT INCREASING WITH TIME.

THIS GRADIENT...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND FOG TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST BECOMES FLATTENED AS A S/WV AND ACCOMPANIED COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
EXPECTED WED...TEMPS WILL BECOME VERY MILD AND MAY APPROACH 90
DEGS IN SOME AREAS. A FEW WDLY SCT SHWRS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
FOR THU AND FRI... A NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REDEVELOP LATER AS AN
UPPER LOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ANCHORED IN THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL
MEAN A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THU
AND FRI. BY THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND A SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF SOME CONVECTION EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELING FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NOT...
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN LATE NOT AND EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG TNGT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY NOT. LEB AND
HIE AFFECTED THE MOST FOLLOWED BY CON. THE OTHER TAF SITES MAY
SEE SOME LGT FOG WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON WIG/VSBY.

.LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDO.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO TWEAK
WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT PER LATEST BUOY REPORTS. WAVES WILL RUN
IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS TNGT...IN PART DUE
TO HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS OF 8 SECOND OR HIGHER. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU TUESDAY NOT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REACH
MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NOT.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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