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000
FXUS61 KCAR 230204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

10:00 PM UPDATE...RAIN IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS
WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER DOWENAST AND WESTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN FILLING IN LATER TONIGHT. UPDATED FCST TO
CHANGE WORDING TO OCCASIONAL RAIN. OTHERWISE, KEPT POPS
CATEGORICAL. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 230204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1004 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

10:00 PM UPDATE...RAIN IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS
WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER DOWENAST AND WESTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN FILLING IN LATER TONIGHT. UPDATED FCST TO
CHANGE WORDING TO OCCASIONAL RAIN. OTHERWISE, KEPT POPS
CATEGORICAL. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS






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000
FXUS61 KGYX 230019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
810 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. THE
WRAPAROUND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISC:
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PIVOT ONSHORE AHEAD
OF THE SLOW-MOVING OCEAN STORM SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AT 18Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MOMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE RAINFALL WITH SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS APPROACHING BANKFULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION WILL PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF TO LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL STILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA A SECOND ONE
BARRELS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE REGION AND
SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS WITH MUCH
LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THAN THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE NEAR
HALLOWEEN AND GO FARTHER OUT IN TIME THE MODELS AND THEIR
INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LESS AND LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE IT IS NOT A
STRETCH TO SAY THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING TO0 MUCH BELOW 35 OR
TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 55...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND
FOG. VFR FOR ALL SITES MONDAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL MORNING VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS
BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST SO INCREASED
WINDS AND UPGRADED THE GALE WARNINGS TO STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHILE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF LATE THAT
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE. I`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 11 PM
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
810 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. THE
WRAPAROUND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISC:
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PIVOT ONSHORE AHEAD
OF THE SLOW-MOVING OCEAN STORM SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AT 18Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MOMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE RAINFALL WITH SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS APPROACHING BANKFULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION WILL PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF TO LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL STILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA A SECOND ONE
BARRELS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE REGION AND
SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS WITH MUCH
LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THAN THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE NEAR
HALLOWEEN AND GO FARTHER OUT IN TIME THE MODELS AND THEIR
INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LESS AND LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE IT IS NOT A
STRETCH TO SAY THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING TO0 MUCH BELOW 35 OR
TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 55...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND
FOG. VFR FOR ALL SITES MONDAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL MORNING VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS
BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST SO INCREASED
WINDS AND UPGRADED THE GALE WARNINGS TO STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHILE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF LATE THAT
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE. I`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 11 PM
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 222216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
ALSO, RAISED TEMPS AND LOWERED DEW POINTS A BIT OVER THE NORTH
EARLY TONIGHT WHERE THE AIR IS STILL DRY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES THIS HOUR.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 222216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
ALSO, RAISED TEMPS AND LOWERED DEW POINTS A BIT OVER THE NORTH
EARLY TONIGHT WHERE THE AIR IS STILL DRY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES THIS HOUR.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221943
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
343 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS












000
FXUS61 KCAR 221943
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
343 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS












000
FXUS61 KCAR 221938
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
338 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR,
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND.
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
BEFORE ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR
NEAR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A
MULTI-DAY ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL
FLOWS, AND ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE
WATERWAYS BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL
STREAMS COULD VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE
COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS










000
FXUS61 KGYX 221909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PIVOT ONSHORE AHEAD OF
THE SLOW-MOVING OCEAN STORM SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT
18Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MOMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE RAINFALL WITH SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS APPROACHING BANKFULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION WILL PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF TO LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL STILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA A SECOND ONE
BARRELS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE REGION AND
SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS WITH MUCH
LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THAN THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE NEAR
HALLOWEEN AND GO FARTHER OUT IN TIME THE MODELS AND THEIR
INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LESS AND LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE IT IS NOT A
STRETCH TO SAY THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING TO0 MUCH BELOW 35 OR
TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 55...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED IN RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND
FOG. VFR FOR ALL SITES MONDAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL MORNING VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF LATE THAT
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE. I`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 11 PM
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221641
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1241 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...THE BAND OF RAIN THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED, WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING BAND NOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS DOWNEAST. WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE FIRST
AREA OF RAIN, IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY MUCH OF
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE, WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE THINKING. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB)
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS
STATIONARY. BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH
ALL HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH
SUSTAINED WINDS.... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED
ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221641
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1241 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...THE BAND OF RAIN THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED, WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING BAND NOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS DOWNEAST. WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE FIRST
AREA OF RAIN, IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY MUCH OF
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE, WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE THINKING. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB)
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS
STATIONARY. BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH
ALL HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH
SUSTAINED WINDS.... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED
ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221613
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1210 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
910 AM...AT 13Z A 1006 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS NEXT
IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW SITUATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA
COAST ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BOTH THE KGYX 12Z RAOB AND
DOPPLER RADAR VAD WINDS SHOW NE AT 40 KT JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION NEAR 2000 FT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT MESONET AND RADAR TREND.

PREV DISC... 6AM UPDATE...SLIGHT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE SUN
RISES. ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD
OF THE LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE
ORIGINATING IN FLORIDA. A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS
MAINE AS ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221327
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM...AT 13Z A 1006 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS NEXT
IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW SITUATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA
COAST ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BOTH THE KGYX 12Z RAOB AND
DOPPLER RADAR VAD WINDS SHOW NE AT 40 KT JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION NEAR 2000 FT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT MESONET AND RADAR TREND.

PREV DISC... 6AM UPDATE...SLIGHT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE SUN
RISES. ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD
OF THE LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE
ORIGINATING IN FLORIDA. A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS
MAINE AS ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221252
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM UPDATE...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO OUR
REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE, A LARGE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR
NORTH. WHILE RAIN HAS MADE IT INTO DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA,
IT IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. AS SUCH, EXPECT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF POPS
ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS UPDATE. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTH
TO PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY, AS PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB)
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS
STATIONARY. BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH
ALL HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH
SUSTAINED WINDS.... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED
ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE ADJUSTED POP...
WEATHER... WIND... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB) IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY. BANDS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL
BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH ALL HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS....
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS
FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE
TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER
OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KGYX 221007
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
607 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...SLIGHT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE SUN RISES. ADJUSTED
TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD
OF THE LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OS MOISTURE
ORIGINATING IN FLORIDA. A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS
MAINE AS ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221007
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
607 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...SLIGHT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE SUN RISES. ADJUSTED
TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD
OF THE LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OS MOISTURE
ORIGINATING IN FLORIDA. A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS
MAINE AS ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220826
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
426 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB) IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY. BANDS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL
BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH ALL HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS....
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS
FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE
TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER
OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT











000
FXUS61 KGYX 220753
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD OF THE
LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OS MOISTURE ORIGINATING
IN FLORIDA.  A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MAINE AS
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220509
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
109 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO
THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT: INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN. ALSO INCREASED POPS A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...AS MOST BREAKS SEEM TO BE FILLING IN ACROSS COASTAL
MAINE.

855 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE SPREADING W DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ALL OF SRN AND WRN ME. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO THE HIGH POPS AND QPF NEED NO
CHANGES. QPF SO FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT IN MOST SPOTS. ACROSS MOST OF
SRN AND WRN NH CONDS STILL REMAIN DRY BUT EXPECT LATER TONIGHT FOR
THE RAIN TO REACH THOSE AREAS AS WELL. BRUSHED UP TEMPS/DEWPTS ETC
WITH LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO CUT ITSELF OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHILE PULLING IN A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE
STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ALREADY CAUSING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD CAPE COD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS AN INCH POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE A WEAK MESOLOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AIDED BY LIFT FROM
THE MESOLOW AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED BACK INTO MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE PROVIDING RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE
LOW PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL FINALLY START TO PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS WILL WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE EURO IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
FOR NOW A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOOKING LIKE A NICE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL. RIDGING OVER THE AREA
SHOULD HELP PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
WITH T850 OF 15C OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE WHERE 15 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT
MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. IT WOULD TAKE A SURGE OF 2 FEET OR MORE
TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS POINT... COASTAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A
SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220509
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
109 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO
THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT: INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN. ALSO INCREASED POPS A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...AS MOST BREAKS SEEM TO BE FILLING IN ACROSS COASTAL
MAINE.

855 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE SPREADING W DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ALL OF SRN AND WRN ME. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO THE HIGH POPS AND QPF NEED NO
CHANGES. QPF SO FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT IN MOST SPOTS. ACROSS MOST OF
SRN AND WRN NH CONDS STILL REMAIN DRY BUT EXPECT LATER TONIGHT FOR
THE RAIN TO REACH THOSE AREAS AS WELL. BRUSHED UP TEMPS/DEWPTS ETC
WITH LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO CUT ITSELF OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHILE PULLING IN A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE
STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ALREADY CAUSING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD CAPE COD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS AN INCH POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE A WEAK MESOLOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AIDED BY LIFT FROM
THE MESOLOW AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED BACK INTO MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE PROVIDING RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE
LOW PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL FINALLY START TO PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS WILL WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE EURO IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
FOR NOW A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOOKING LIKE A NICE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL. RIDGING OVER THE AREA
SHOULD HELP PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
WITH T850 OF 15C OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE WHERE 15 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT
MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. IT WOULD TAKE A SURGE OF 2 FEET OR MORE
TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS POINT... COASTAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A
SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220427
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1227 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0025 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS...WIND...TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.

LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 220427
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1227 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0025 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS...WIND...TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.

LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE








000
FXUS61 KCAR 220112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED RAIN COVERAGE JUST A BIT NORTH THROUGH
PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AND LOWERED RAIN COVERAGE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN







000
FXUS61 KGYX 220100
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO
THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
855 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE SPREADING W DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ALL OF SRN AND WRN ME. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO THE HIGH POPS AND QPF NEED NO
CHANGES. QPF SO FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT IN MOST SPOTS. ACROSS MOST OF
SRN AND WRN NH CONDS STILL REMAIN DRY BUT EXPECT LATER TONIGHT FOR
THE RAIN TO REACH THOSE AREAS AS WELL. BRUSHED UP TEMPS/DEWPTS ETC
WITH LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO CUT ITSELF OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHILE PULLING IN A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE
STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ALREADY CAUSING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD CAPE COD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS AN INCH POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE A WEAK MESOLOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AIDED BY LIFT FROM
THE MESOLOW AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED BACK INTO MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE PROVIDING RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE
LOW PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL FINALLY START TO PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS WILL WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE EURO IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
FOR NOW A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOOKING LIKE A NICE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL. RIDGING OVER THE AREA
SHOULD HELP PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
WITH T850 OF 15C OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE WHERE 15 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT
MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. IT WOULD TAKE A SURGE OF 2 FEET OR MORE
TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS POINT... COASTAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A
SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 212209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...HAD TO EXPAND RAIN COVERAGE INTO EASTERN DOWNEAST
LOCATIONS AND CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT
DOWNEAST WHERE RAIN HAS COOLED THE AIR.

LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 212209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...HAD TO EXPAND RAIN COVERAGE INTO EASTERN DOWNEAST
LOCATIONS AND CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT
DOWNEAST WHERE RAIN HAS COOLED THE AIR.

LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 212001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE OPTD TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE HEAVIER...DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND PTN OF THE EVENT SPANNING THU INTO FRI MORN OF OUR FCST. FCST
STORM TOTAL QPF...WHICH SUMMED THE 6 HRLY QPFS FROM 18Z WED THRU
00Z SAT INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF 3 INCH OR GREATER RNFL OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION...WHERE WE USED TO DELINEATE
THE N CUT-OFF THE WATCH ATTM. ALSO...ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY
SHARP CUT-OFF OF TOTAL RNFL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA (TO AS
LOW AS ARND 1 INCH IN THE ST JOHN VLY)...WHERE LITTLE OF THE
OVRRNG RNFL WED WILL REACH...AND THE HEAVIEST DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND WILL TAKE TO LONGEST TO ARRIVE AND RESIDES RELATIVELY THE
SHORTEST TM FRAME COMPARED TO LCTNS IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS SHARP
CUT-OFF OF RNFL OVR THE N WAS ALSO IMPLIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG TOOL
FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS MO...WHICH TAKES THE AVG OF 10 TO 15
SIMILAR ANAOLGS THAT OCCURRED WITHIN A MONTH OF THE DAT OF THIS
CURRENT EVENT OVR THE PAST 30 TO 40 YRS OR SO.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN













000
FXUS61 KCAR 212001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE OPTD TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE HEAVIER...DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND PTN OF THE EVENT SPANNING THU INTO FRI MORN OF OUR FCST. FCST
STORM TOTAL QPF...WHICH SUMMED THE 6 HRLY QPFS FROM 18Z WED THRU
00Z SAT INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF 3 INCH OR GREATER RNFL OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION...WHERE WE USED TO DELINEATE
THE N CUT-OFF THE WATCH ATTM. ALSO...ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY
SHARP CUT-OFF OF TOTAL RNFL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA (TO AS
LOW AS ARND 1 INCH IN THE ST JOHN VLY)...WHERE LITTLE OF THE
OVRRNG RNFL WED WILL REACH...AND THE HEAVIEST DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND WILL TAKE TO LONGEST TO ARRIVE AND RESIDES RELATIVELY THE
SHORTEST TM FRAME COMPARED TO LCTNS IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS SHARP
CUT-OFF OF RNFL OVR THE N WAS ALSO IMPLIED BY THE CIPS ANALOG TOOL
FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS MO...WHICH TAKES THE AVG OF 10 TO 15
SIMILAR ANAOLGS THAT OCCURRED WITHIN A MONTH OF THE DAT OF THIS
CURRENT EVENT OVR THE PAST 30 TO 40 YRS OR SO.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN













000
FXUS61 KCAR 211952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE OPTD TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE HEAVIER...DEFORMATION RNFL
BAND PTN OF THE EVENT SPANNING THU INTO FRI MORN OF OUR FCST. FCST
STORM TOTAL QPF...WHICH SUMMED THE 6 HRLY QPFS FROM 18Z WED THRU
00Z SAT INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF 3 INCH OR GREATER RNFL OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION...WHERE WE USED TO DELINEATE
THE N CUT-OFF THE WATCH ATTM. ALSO...ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY
SHARP CUT-OFF OF TOTAL RNFL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE
FA...WHERE LITTLE OF THE OVRRNG RNFL WED WILL REACH...AND THE
HEAVIEST DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL TAKE TO LONGEST TO ARRIVE AND
RESIDES RELATIVELY THE SHORTEST TM FRAME COMPARED TO LCTNS IN THE
WATCH AREA. THIS SHARP CUT-OFF OF RNFL OVR THE N WAS ALSO IMPLIED
BY THE CIPS ANALOG TOOL FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS MO...WHICH TAKES
THE AVG OF 10 TO 15 SIMILAR ANAOLGS THAT OCCURRED WITHIN A MONTH OF
THE DAT OF THIS CURRENT EVENT OVR THE PAST 30 TO 40 YRS OR SO.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN











000
FXUS61 KGYX 211921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO
THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO CUT ITSELF OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHILE PULLING IN A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE
STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ALREADY CAUSING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD CAPE COD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS AN INCH POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE A WEAK MESOLOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AIDED BY LIFT FROM
THE MESOLOW AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED BACK INTO MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE PROVIDING RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE
LOW PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL FINALLY START TO PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS WILL WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE EURO IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
FOR NOW A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOOKING LIKE A NICE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL. RIDGING OVER THE AREA
SHOULD HELP PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
WITH T850 OF 15C OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE WHERE 15 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT
MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. IT WOULD TAKE A SURGE OF 2 FEET OR MORE
TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS POINT... COASTAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A
SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211712
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. LOOK FOR
RAIN TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...BECOMING MVFR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DOWNEAST AS RAIN MOVES IN, AND PERHAPS IFR LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER
NORTH, RAIN MAY MAKE IT NORTH TO HOULTON, BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE
MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH TO NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KGYX 211627
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1230PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE POP FORECAST AGAIN AS RAIN IS ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO FILL
IN MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211627
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1230PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE POP FORECAST AGAIN AS RAIN IS ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO FILL
IN MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
833 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF RAIN FOR
EVERYWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON MODELS
AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...BECOMING MVFR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DOWNEAST AS RAIN MOVES IN, AND PERHAPS IFR LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER
NORTH, RAIN MAY MAKE IT NORTH TO HOULTON, BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE
MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH TO NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
833 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF RAIN FOR
EVERYWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BASED ON MODELS
AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...BECOMING MVFR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DOWNEAST AS RAIN MOVES IN, AND PERHAPS IFR LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER
NORTH, RAIN MAY MAKE IT NORTH TO HOULTON, BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE
MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH TO NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 211026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 211026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KGYX 211012
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE.. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

PREV DISC...LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY
SPREADING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT IN THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211012
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE.. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

PREV DISC...LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY
SPREADING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT IN THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210852
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
452 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 210852
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
452 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME
THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE
STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS,
ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE
OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE
SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER.
THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE
VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING
THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH.

THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS
ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES
BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER
AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM
ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM
925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35
MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL
OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL
BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE
GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION.
A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID MORNING THEN IFR
CONDITIONS KBHB AND KBGR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7
SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD
WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE
EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING
REMAINING THE SAME.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO
THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT
OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY.
THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE
OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KGYX 210748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...CURTIS/LEGRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...CURTIS/LEGRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE










000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE










000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE










000
FXUS61 KCAR 210417
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO
HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO
SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC
LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE
OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS
THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND
MILLINOCKET.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE
RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN
EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO
HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF
CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS
OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY
MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH,
IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND
BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN
RAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE










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