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000
FXUS61 KGYX 292335
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER-SPREADING THE REGION FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE FARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON TEMPS BUT
SHOULD SEE READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS. BY MIDNIGHT
NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S AND UPPER
30S TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/TD`S.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH
ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION.

NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS
FAR W AS MHT.

LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S
TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS
REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KCAR 292224
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
610 PM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO CURRENT FCST IN THE NEAR TERM.
LATEST OBSVD TEMPS WERE USED TO ADJUST FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT TO
UNCHGD FCST LOW TEMPS POSTED AT 5-6AM SAT.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS SAVE A BATCH OF
CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BENEATH A BUBBLE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...SHORTWAVE SEEN IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER AROUND CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AREA
OF CU/STRATOCU TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST MAY RE-CONGEAL AND MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS BGR/BHB. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND WILL WORD THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
NORTH...TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN`T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...VJN/VJN
MARINE...VJN/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT THE DRIER WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS SAVE A BATCH OF
CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BENEATH A BUBBLE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...SHORTWAVE SEEN IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER AROUND CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AREA
OF CU/STRATOCU TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST MAY RE-CONGEAL AND MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS BGR/BHB. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND WILL WORD THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
NORTH...TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANTBLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN/T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH
ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION.

NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS
FAR W AS MHT.

LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S
TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS
REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH
ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION.

NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS
FAR W AS MHT.

LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S
TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS
REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291750 AAD
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
150 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--1238PM UPDATE--
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF EARLIER UPDATES TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS /THE LATTER OF THESE CHANGES IS PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS/. WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A TAD BASED ON
THESE TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

--1037AM UPDATE--
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS HOUR IS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS BASED ON MID MORNING TRENDS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT...BUT THE PERIOD OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291750 AAD
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
150 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--1238PM UPDATE--
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF EARLIER UPDATES TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS /THE LATTER OF THESE CHANGES IS PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS/. WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A TAD BASED ON
THESE TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

--1037AM UPDATE--
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS HOUR IS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS BASED ON MID MORNING TRENDS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT...BUT THE PERIOD OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291639 AAC
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--1238PM UPDATE--
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF EARLIER UPDATES TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS /THE LATTER OF THESE CHANGES IS PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS/. WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A TAD BASED ON
THESE TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

--1037AM UPDATE--
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS HOUR IS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS BASED ON MID MORNING TRENDS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT...BUT THE PERIOD OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291440 AAB
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1040 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--1037AM UPDATE--
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS HOUR IS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS BASED ON MID MORNING TRENDS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT...BUT THE PERIOD OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT LONGER. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291333 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. ONSHORE FLOW
AND MODEST MOISTURE ACROSS SRN ZONES IS ALLOWING MARINE STRATUS TO
FORM. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS COASTAL SWRN ME AND
SEACOAST NH...WHERE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY ENHANCING
LIFT ENOUGH TO EXPAND CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY...SO WILL INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR
COASTAL ZONES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH
TO WET THE GROUND.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291333 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. ONSHORE FLOW
AND MODEST MOISTURE ACROSS SRN ZONES IS ALLOWING MARINE STRATUS TO
FORM. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS COASTAL SWRN ME AND
SEACOAST NH...WHERE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY ENHANCING
LIFT ENOUGH TO EXPAND CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY...SO WILL INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR
COASTAL ZONES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH
TO WET THE GROUND.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291318 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291318 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291008
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
608 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT GOES SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERMS GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290958
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290958
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290850
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
450 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290850
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
450 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED HIGH AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BRIGHTEST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
RACES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS...AND ALONG THE COAST AS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
TRIED TO FORM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED...AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO SHOW BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SHALLOW BUT POTENT 500MB WAVE TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE CT VLY ON SUNDAY AS DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MID-LVL WAA MOVES INTO WEAK
RIDGING AT 500 MB. DEVELOPING ONSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TRACKS JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
GFS. WHILE BOTH MODELS PRODUCE A SIMILAR TRACK...GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AND HAS MORE QPF...BUT
NEITHER MODELS PRODUCES A SOAKER...GENERALLY HALF TO AS MUCH A
0.75 INCHES IN THE GFS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO AND ITS
OVERALL BETTER PERFORMANCE. SINCE THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND BEING GENERATED BY PRECIP PROCESS...HAVE TO TALK
ABOUT SNOW...BIT THIS SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
FORM TUESDAY...AND 850 TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE -2C /COMPARED TO
-4 OR -5 LAST TUESDAY/...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NRN ZONES.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON MONDAY...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING AND TUE-WED
LOOK MAINLY DRY IN THE EURO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH. BY THURSDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 50...AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MAYBE 50.
OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID-LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LCL MVFR PSBL THIS AM IN
CEILINGS...OTW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS /PROBABLE IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/ IN
RA AND DZ AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MON NIGHT AND VFR
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...MAY NEED SCA FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS MONDAY AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MAINE
COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1242 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1238 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO
INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND
PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE
BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN.

THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO
THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND
CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO
AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU
AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE
STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH
THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE
COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO
CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY
ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO
RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS
MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE
THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE
TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290355
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1155 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND
SKYCON...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORTON/VJN
MARINE...NORTON/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290124
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
924 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORTON/VJN
MARINE...NORTON/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282339
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
739 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND WINDS. WINDS
AND GUSTS ACROSS NRN ME STILL HOLDING. EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL
DROP SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORTON/VJN
MARINE...NORTON/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282339
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
739 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND WINDS. WINDS
AND GUSTS ACROSS NRN ME STILL HOLDING. EXPECT THAT THE WINDS WILL
DROP SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORTON/VJN
MARINE...NORTON/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282332
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
LOOKING FOR VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT....MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS/TD`S/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND
PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE
BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN.

THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO
THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND
CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO
AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU
AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE
STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH
THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE
COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO
CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY
ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO
RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS
MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE
THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE
TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO SET THE STAGE
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN
MARINE...DUDA/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO SET THE STAGE
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN
MARINE...DUDA/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281938
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND
PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE
BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN.

THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO
THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND
CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO
AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU
AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE
STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH
THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE
COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO
CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY
ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO
RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS
MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE
THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE
TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281938
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND
PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE
BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN.

THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO
THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND
CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO
AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU
AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE
STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH
THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE
COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO
CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY
ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO
RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS
MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE
THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE
TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281600
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1150 AM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MENTIONED SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. INCORPORATED
MOST CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

PREV DISCUSSION
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
CANADA TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHILLY AND VERY DRY DAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY.
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SUNNY. A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT AND DEEP
MIXING UP TO 7000 FEET WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY BREEZE AGAIN TODAY.
TONIGHT WILL THEN BE CLEARING AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER LOW COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A GUSTY BREEZE AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PER THE STATE OF MAINE FOREST SERVICE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281515
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1115 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST
SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. ELSEWHERE...VERY DRY AND
MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED HOWEVER AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

MODIFIED CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS WELL AS THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS WITH THE LASTEST UPDATE. A SEA BREEZE
HAS ALREADY FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE
SEACOAST OF NEW HAMSPHIRE.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1037 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF HUDSON BAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOL DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AN IMPULSE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THEN TODAY GIVEN
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

THE COLD CLOSED 500MB LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE SHIFT NWD
AND FILL OVER THE WEEKEND. AS UP AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WEAKEN A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NEAR ZONAL THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WE GET INTO MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN NOAM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGES BUILD TO OUR EAST AND WEST...AND THIS WILL BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD AS
THE ONE WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW...AND TEMPS OVER ALL WILL RUN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AS SFC RIDGE TRAVERSES NRN NEW
ENGLAND FROM W TO E WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL INLAND...AND A BIT
COOLER AS FLOW SHIFTS S-SE ON THE COAST. SUNDAY WE SEE A WAVE MOVE
TRY TO MOVE THRU WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB...AND MAY SEE
SOME WAA PRECIP MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND AND TAKES OVER. WILL SEE A LOT
CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO
DRY LOW LVL AIR MASS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. ANOTHER 600 MB
WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WEAK LOW THAT WILL PASS JUST S OF THE
CWA...AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO PRODUCE RAIN MON-MON NIGHT. COULD BE
SOME COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND MAY MAKE FOR A CHILLY
DAY...BUT TEMPS ALOFT GENERALLY AROUND OR ABOVE ZERO...AND IF
THERE IT IS ANY SNOW IT WOULD BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUE. FOR THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS HARD TO FIND A LOT OF
AGREEMENT ON MUCH OF ANYTHING. THERE MAY BE A 500MB CLOSED LOW PASSING
SOMEWHERE TO OUR N...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SUN AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING....ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS...IN LOW CIGS AND SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...QUIET UNDER SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION INTO SUNDAY
EVE. MAY SEE WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS AND WE WON`T HIT
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL SEE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30
TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281349
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
949 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR/WEB CAMS/SPOTTER REPORTS SHOW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND SOUTH EAST
AROOSTOOK. HAVE UPDATED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THIS AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY AND VERY DRY DAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE SUNNY. A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 7000
FEET WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY BREEZE AGAIN TODAY. TONIGHT WILL THEN
BE CLEARING AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER LOW COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A GUSTY BREEZE AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN ACROSS OUR REGION AND FINE FUELS HAVE BECOME VERY DRY.
OUR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THE FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281243
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST
SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. ELSEWHERE...VERY DRY AND
MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED HOWEVER AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

MODIFIED CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS WELL AS THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS WITH THE LASTEST UPDATE.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1037 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF HUDSON BAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOL DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AN IMPULSE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THEN TODAY GIVEN
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

THE COLD CLOSED 500MB LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE SHIFT NWD
AND FILL OVER THE WEEKEND. AS UP AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WEAKEN A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NEAR ZONAL THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WE GET INTO MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN NOAM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGES BUILD TO OUR EAST AND WEST...AND THIS WILL BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD AS
THE ONE WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW...AND TEMPS OVER ALL WILL RUN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AS SFC RIDGE TRAVERSES NRN NEW
ENGLAND FROM W TO E WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL INLAND...AND A BIT
COOLER AS FLOW SHIFTS S-SE ON THE COAST. SUNDAY WE SEE A WAVE MOVE
TRY TO MOVE THRU WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB...AND MAY SEE
SOME WAA PRECIP MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND AND TAKES OVER. WILL SEE A LOT
CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO
DRY LOW LVL AIR MASS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. ANOTHER 600 MB
WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WEAK LOW THAT WILL PASS JUST S OF THE
CWA...AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO PRODUCE RAIN MON-MON NIGHT. COULD BE
SOME COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND MAY MAKE FOR A CHILLY
DAY...BUT TEMPS ALOFT GENERALLY AROUND OR ABOVE ZERO...AND IF
THERE IT IS ANY SNOW IT WOULD BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUE. FOR THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS HARD TO FIND A LOT OF
AGREEMENT ON MUCH OF ANYTHING. THERE MAY BE A 500MB CLOSED LOW PASSING
SOMEWHERE TO OUR N...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SUN AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING....ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS...IN LOW CIGS AND SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...QUIET UNDER SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION INTO SUNDAY
EVE. MAY SEE WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS AND WE WON`T HIT
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL SEE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30
TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281023
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:20 AM UPDATE...MODIFIED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN WESTERN AREAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST AND
DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING,
THEN THIN OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNEAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY AND VERY DRY DAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE SUNNY. A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 7000
FEET WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY BREEZE AGAIN TODAY. TONIGHT WILL THEN
BE CLEARING AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER LOW COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A GUSTY BREEZE AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN ACROSS OUR REGION AND FINE FUELS HAVE BECOME VERY DRY.
OUR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THE FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281002
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
602 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1037 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF HUDSON BAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOL DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AN IMPULSE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THEN TODAY GIVEN
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

THE COLD CLOSED 500MB LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE SHIFT NWD
AND FILL OVER THE WEEKEND. AS UP AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WEAKEN A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NEAR ZONAL THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WE GET INTO MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN NOAM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGES BUILD TO OUR EAST AND WEST...AND THIS WILL BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD AS
THE ONE WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW...AND TEMPS OVER ALL WILL RUN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AS SFC RIDGE TRAVERSES NRN NEW
ENGLAND FROM W TO E WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL INLAND...AND A BIT
COOLER AS FLOW SHIFTS S-SE ON THE COAST. SUNDAY WE SEE A WAVE MOVE
TRY TO MOVE THRU WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB...AND MAY SEE
SOME WAA PRECIP MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND AND TAKES OVER. WILL SEE A LOT
CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO
DRY LOW LVL AIR MASS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. ANOTHER 600 MB
WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WEAK LOW THAT WILL PASS JUST S OF THE
CWA...AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO PRODUCE RAIN MON-MON NIGHT. COULD BE
SOME COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND MAY MAKE FOR A CHILLY
DAY...BUT TEMPS ALOFT GENERALLY AROUND OR ABOVE ZERO...AND IF
THERE IT IS ANY SNOW IT WOULD BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUE. FOR THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS HARD TO FIND A LOT OF
AGREEMENT ON MUCH OF ANYTHING. THERE MAY BE A 500MB CLOSED LOW PASSING
SOMEWHERE TO OUR N...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SUN AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING....ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS...IN LOW CIGS AND SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...QUIET UNDER SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION INTO SUNDAY
EVE. MAY SEE WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS AND WE WON`T HIT
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL SEE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30
TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
441 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY AND VERY DRY DAY. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY. DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL BE SUNNY. A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 7000
FEET WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY BREEZE AGAIN TODAY. TONIGHT WILL THEN
BE CLEARING AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER LOW COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A GUSTY BREEZE AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN ACROSS OUR REGION AND FINE FUELS HAVE BECOME VERY DRY.
OUR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THE FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280719
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1037 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF HUDSON BAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOL DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AN IMPULSE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THEN TODAY GIVEN
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

THE COLD CLOSED 500MB LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE SHIFT NWD
AND FILL OVER THE WEEKEND. AS UP AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WEAKEN A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NEAR ZONAL THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WE GET INTO MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN NOAM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGES BUILD TO OUR EAST AND WEST...AND THIS WILL BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD AS
THE ONE WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW...AND TEMPS OVER ALL WILL RUN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AS SFC RIDGE TRAVERSES NRN NEW
ENGLAND FROM W TO E WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL INLAND...AND A BIT
COOLER AS FLOW SHIFTS S-SE ON THE COAST. SUNDAY WE SEE A WAVE MOVE
TRY TO MOVE THRU WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB...AND MAY SEE
SOME WAA PRECIP MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND AND TAKES OVER. WILL SEE A LOT
CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO
DRY LOW LVL AIR MASS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. ANOTHER 600 MB
WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WEAK LOW THAT WILL PASS JUST S OF THE
CWA...AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO PRODUCE RAIN MON-MON NIGHT. COULD BE
SOME COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND MAY MAKE FOR A CHILLY
DAY...BUT TEMPS ALOFT GENERALLY AROUND OR ABOVE ZERO...AND IF
THERE IT IS ANY SNOW IT WOULD BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUE. FOR THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS HARD TO FIND A LOT OF
AGREEMENT ON MUCH OF ANYTHING. THERE MAY BE A 500MB CLOSED LOW PASSING
SOMEWHERE TO OUR N...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SUN AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING....ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS...IN LOW CIGS AND SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...QUIET UNDER SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION INTO SUNDAY
EVE. MAY SEE WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS AND WE WON`T HIT
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL SEE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30
TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280719
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1037 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF HUDSON BAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOL DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AN IMPULSE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THEN TODAY GIVEN
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE.

THE COLD CLOSED 500MB LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE SHIFT NWD
AND FILL OVER THE WEEKEND. AS UP AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WEAKEN A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NEAR ZONAL THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WE GET INTO MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN NOAM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGES BUILD TO OUR EAST AND WEST...AND THIS WILL BE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD AS
THE ONE WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW...AND TEMPS OVER ALL WILL RUN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AS SFC RIDGE TRAVERSES NRN NEW
ENGLAND FROM W TO E WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL INLAND...AND A BIT
COOLER AS FLOW SHIFTS S-SE ON THE COAST. SUNDAY WE SEE A WAVE MOVE
TRY TO MOVE THRU WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB...AND MAY SEE
SOME WAA PRECIP MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND AND TAKES OVER. WILL SEE A LOT
CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO
DRY LOW LVL AIR MASS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. ANOTHER 600 MB
WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WEAK LOW THAT WILL PASS JUST S OF THE
CWA...AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO PRODUCE RAIN MON-MON NIGHT. COULD BE
SOME COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND MAY MAKE FOR A CHILLY
DAY...BUT TEMPS ALOFT GENERALLY AROUND OR ABOVE ZERO...AND IF
THERE IT IS ANY SNOW IT WOULD BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUE. FOR THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS HARD TO FIND A LOT OF
AGREEMENT ON MUCH OF ANYTHING. THERE MAY BE A 500MB CLOSED LOW PASSING
SOMEWHERE TO OUR N...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SUN AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING....ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS...IN LOW CIGS AND SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...QUIET UNDER SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION INTO SUNDAY
EVE. MAY SEE WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS AND WE WON`T HIT
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL SEE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30
TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280429
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1229 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1226 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
940 PM UPDATE: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH A COOL LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. A BAND OF
CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BAND OF CLOUDS
QUICKLY EXITS OFFSHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

730PM UPDATE: THIS EVENING SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR SOME CLOUDS ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE COLD AND DRY CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED.
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.  QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST:

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH IN QUEBEC
WILL SEND A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF US, AND EVEN THERE, PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY MINOR.
WITH THE SYSTEM, JUST EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 20S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY WITH A MAINLY SUNNY DAY.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY RELENTS BY WEEK/S END WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.  THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN WEAKENING TROUGHING...HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A COLD RAIN...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE FOR A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES WITH SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT TAF SITES ON MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS LOW AS
WEDNESDAY, WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. WINDS WON`T BE TOO
BAD, THOUGH, WITH GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. REMAINING DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON RHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280429
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1229 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1226 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
940 PM UPDATE: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH A COOL LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. A BAND OF
CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BAND OF CLOUDS
QUICKLY EXITS OFFSHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

730PM UPDATE: THIS EVENING SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR SOME CLOUDS ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE COLD AND DRY CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED.
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.  QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST:

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH IN QUEBEC
WILL SEND A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF US, AND EVEN THERE, PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY MINOR.
WITH THE SYSTEM, JUST EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 20S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY WITH A MAINLY SUNNY DAY.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY RELENTS BY WEEK/S END WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.  THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN WEAKENING TROUGHING...HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A COLD RAIN...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE FOR A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES WITH SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT TAF SITES ON MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS LOW AS
WEDNESDAY, WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. WINDS WON`T BE TOO
BAD, THOUGH, WITH GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. REMAINING DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON RHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280254
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1054 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWED SOME RETURNS W/25 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
NE AROOSTOOK AND N WASHINGTON COUNTY. HAD A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
IN THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE AREA THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. DECIDED TO KEEP 30-40% ACROSS THESE AREAS UP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN THINGS WIND DOWN AS THE BEST CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS E AND SKIES START TO CLEAR. NW WINDS STAYING UP 10-15 MPH
BUT WILL DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT W/A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP.
ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS SOME LOCALES
BACK ACROSS NW MAINE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THESE AREAS
COULD EASILY 15-20 DEGREES BY MORNING. LOOKING FOR CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS SEEING MID 20S. BANGOR WILL BE FLIRTING W/A RECORD
LOW AS 23F IS THE RECORD LOW FOR APRIL 28TH.

FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WNW WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH W/GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. DESPITE THE COLD
TEMPS, RHS WILL BE VERY LOW(AOB 20%) LEADING TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND DRYING OUT THE FINE FUELS. COORDINATED W/THE MAINE
FOREST SERVICE THIS EVENING AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL
MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY. COULDN`T RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW
IN A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE REST OF
NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS AN UPR TROF MOVES AWAY TOWARD GREENLAND, SKIES WILL CLEAR AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT TERM AS THE SFC HIGH
AND A SHALLOW UPR RIDGE CONTROL THE WEATHER. THU NIGHT IS LIKELY
TO BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE BUILDING HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES, WITH
PARTS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS GETTING BELOW 15F. HIGHS BELOW NRML
ON FRI WILL MOVE CLOSE TO NRML ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT MESSY AND UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG
TERM. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPR TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SUN
NIGHT THRU TUE. HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES APPEARS QUITE UNCERTAIN, WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE
AMONG GUIDANCE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA TO A LOW PASSING RIGHT OVER THE CWA WITH
AMPLE RAIN, AND SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW AN INVERTED TROF FROM SRN NEW
ENG TO THE ST. LAWR VLY WHILE OTHERS DON`T. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD
IN GUIDANCE AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY, GENERALLY TOOK
SUPERBLEND POPS AND JUST TONED THEM DOWN A BIT AND MADE MINOR
OTHER TWEAKS. ALL POPS STAY AT 50 PCT OR LESS FOR NOW, UNTIL MORE
CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS. TEMPS FOR NOW ARE FCST TO BE RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMS, BUT THIS WILL LKLY CHANGE AS THE OTHER
ASPECTS OF THE FCST EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG ON CALM, CLEAR NIGHTS,
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM:
CURRENTLY FCST ENTIRE SHORT TERM TO HAVE CONDITIONS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA, BUT WILL MONITOR BORDERLINE N-NE WIND GUSTS THU NIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280145
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
945 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH A COOL LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. A BAND OF
CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BAND OF CLOUDS
QUICKLY EXITS OFFSHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

730PM UPDATE: THIS EVENING SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR SOME CLOUDS ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE COLD AND DRY CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED.
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.  QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST:

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH IN QUEBEC
WILL SEND A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF US, AND EVEN THERE, PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY MINOR.
WITH THE SYSTEM, JUST EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 20S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY WITH A MAINLY SUNNY DAY.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY RELENTS BY WEEK/S END WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.  THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN WEAKING TROUGHING...HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS VER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A COLD RAIN...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE FOR A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES WITH SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT TAF SITES ON MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS LOW AS
WEDNESDAY, WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. WINDS WON`T BE TOO
BAD, THOUGH, WITH GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. REMAINING DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON RHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





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