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000
FXUS61 KGYX 290144
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290144
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290144
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 290144
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH JUST PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 290117
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
917 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM UPDATE. THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SKY CON CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTH AND
CNTRL MAINE. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLYT TEMPS.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS BY
12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND LOWER
OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA
VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT N
TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD OCCUR IF
WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290117
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
917 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM UPDATE. THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SKY CON CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTH AND
CNTRL MAINE. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLYT TEMPS.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS BY
12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND LOWER
OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA
VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT N
TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD OCCUR IF
WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 290117
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
917 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM UPDATE. THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SKY CON CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTH AND
CNTRL MAINE. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLYT TEMPS.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS BY
12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND LOWER
OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA
VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT N
TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD OCCUR IF
WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
659 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

NOT MUCH INDICATION OF ANY SNFL ATTM REACHING THE GROUND OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MID AFTN. CANNOT RULE A BRIEF PD OF A LITTLE
LGT SNFL RIGHT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUM UP TO ERLY EVE...THEN LLVL COLD AND DRY ADVCN WILL CHASE
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SNFL SE OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...WITH CLRG WORKING N TO S OVR THE FA.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS
BY 12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT N TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD
OCCUR IF WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 282259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
659 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

NOT MUCH INDICATION OF ANY SNFL ATTM REACHING THE GROUND OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MID AFTN. CANNOT RULE A BRIEF PD OF A LITTLE
LGT SNFL RIGHT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUM UP TO ERLY EVE...THEN LLVL COLD AND DRY ADVCN WILL CHASE
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SNFL SE OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...WITH CLRG WORKING N TO S OVR THE FA.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS
BY 12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT N TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD
OCCUR IF WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
659 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

NOT MUCH INDICATION OF ANY SNFL ATTM REACHING THE GROUND OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MID AFTN. CANNOT RULE A BRIEF PD OF A LITTLE
LGT SNFL RIGHT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUM UP TO ERLY EVE...THEN LLVL COLD AND DRY ADVCN WILL CHASE
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SNFL SE OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...WITH CLRG WORKING N TO S OVR THE FA.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS
BY 12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT N TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD
OCCUR IF WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
659 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

NOT MUCH INDICATION OF ANY SNFL ATTM REACHING THE GROUND OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MID AFTN. CANNOT RULE A BRIEF PD OF A LITTLE
LGT SNFL RIGHT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUM UP TO ERLY EVE...THEN LLVL COLD AND DRY ADVCN WILL CHASE
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SNFL SE OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...WITH CLRG WORKING N TO S OVR THE FA.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS
BY 12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT N TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD
OCCUR IF WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
659 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

NOT MUCH INDICATION OF ANY SNFL ATTM REACHING THE GROUND OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MID AFTN. CANNOT RULE A BRIEF PD OF A LITTLE
LGT SNFL RIGHT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUM UP TO ERLY EVE...THEN LLVL COLD AND DRY ADVCN WILL CHASE
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SNFL SE OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...WITH CLRG WORKING N TO S OVR THE FA.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS
BY 12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT N TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD
OCCUR IF WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 282259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
659 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

NOT MUCH INDICATION OF ANY SNFL ATTM REACHING THE GROUND OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MID AFTN. CANNOT RULE A BRIEF PD OF A LITTLE
LGT SNFL RIGHT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUM UP TO ERLY EVE...THEN LLVL COLD AND DRY ADVCN WILL CHASE
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SNFL SE OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...WITH CLRG WORKING N TO S OVR THE FA.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS
BY 12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT N TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD
OCCUR IF WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282247
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER AND JUST A FEW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEAR 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282247
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER AND JUST A FEW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEAR 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282247
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER AND JUST A FEW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEAR 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282247
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER AND JUST A FEW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEAR 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282247
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER AND JUST A FEW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEAR 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 282247
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING
THE ECHOES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER AND JUST A FEW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGED
FROM ZERO EASTERN AREAS TO NEAR 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINT AND CLOUD GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH INDICATION OF ANY SNFL ATTM REACHING THE GROUND OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MID AFTN. CANNOT RULE A BRIEF PD OF A LITTLE
LGT SNFL RIGHT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUM UP TO ERLY EVE...THEN LLVL COLD AND DRY ADVCN WILL CHASE
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SNFL SE OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...WITH CLRG WORKING N TO S OVR THE FA.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS
BY 12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT N TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD
OCCUR IF WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH INDICATION OF ANY SNFL ATTM REACHING THE GROUND OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MID AFTN. CANNOT RULE A BRIEF PD OF A LITTLE
LGT SNFL RIGHT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUM UP TO ERLY EVE...THEN LLVL COLD AND DRY ADVCN WILL CHASE
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SNFL SE OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...WITH CLRG WORKING N TO S OVR THE FA.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS
BY 12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT N TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD
OCCUR IF WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH INDICATION OF ANY SNFL ATTM REACHING THE GROUND OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MID AFTN. CANNOT RULE A BRIEF PD OF A LITTLE
LGT SNFL RIGHT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUM UP TO ERLY EVE...THEN LLVL COLD AND DRY ADVCN WILL CHASE
WHATS LEFT OF ANY SNFL SE OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVRNGT...WITH CLRG WORKING N TO S OVR THE FA.

THE PSN OF THE WSW TO ENE SFC HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVR NRN/WRN PTNS
BY 12Z SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS AND
LOWER OVRNGT LOWS OVR BROAD RVR VLYS OF NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA VERY LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF FA WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT N TO NW BREEZE...KEEPING TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT THEN WHAT COULD
OCCUR IF WINDS WERE NEAR CALM ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

AFT A CHILLY START...SUN SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DEG F WARMER THAN TDY. A SW BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLDNSS LATE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVCG E FROM CNTRL CAN SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT TEMPS/LOW TEMPS SIG MILDER SUN NGT THEN TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID
40S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES THRU THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM...
WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KBHB TIL ABOUT 6 PM THIS
EVE.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA WITH THE END TM AT 2 PM SUN
UNCHGD FROM THE LAST UPDATE. WV HTS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE FROM
LATE THIS MORN...SO WE WERE ABLE TO GO CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR TNGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. A PD OF LGT FZSPY CAN BE XPCTD
LATE TNGT AND ERLY SUN MORN OVR MZS050 AND MZ052.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281904
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF LONG ISLAND. SO FAR THIS HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE
STALLED TODAY BUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL ENE TO
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE KICKER
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2-3" OR SO NEAR TEMPLE AND
NEW BOSTON... AS WELL AS OTHER POINTS IN SOUTHERN NH/FAR SW
MAINE... WHERE PETTERSSON 2-D FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM/TROWAL
STRUCTURE SET UP TODAY. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN DO
NOT SEE A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH WILL FALL
OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES THROUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLDER AIR DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL... WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS WEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM BEING NON ZERO AND WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM
HAVING THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS INITIALLY NW AND
THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS TO OUR SE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN SOUTHERN CANADA
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OCCUR FAIRLY
EARLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER QUIET WEEK AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
OVER-SPREAD THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME WARMER
ENOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ANY CASE EXPECT QPF TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG TOUGH IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW CEILINGS/MOISTURE SOURCE MOVES AWAY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNTIL THEN MIXED CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
N/NNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AOB 10 KTS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY...BECOMING
VFR MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DID TRIM THE ENDING TIME BACK A FEW HOURS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281628
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE: WE TOOK MENTION OF ANY RN OUT OF SN OVR DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS AFTN WITH ENOUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR
ALF TO SUSTAIN ALL SN OVR THIS PTN OF THE AREA (BASED ON OBS FROM
SW ME). LATEST SFC OBS FROM COASTAL DOWNEAST ME STILL NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SN REACHING THE GROUND
ATTM...DESPITE FAIRLY DECENT REF RETURNS OVR THIS AREA. MAY JUST
BE A MATTER OF TM... WITH A LOT OF DRY SUB-CLD AIR TO OVR COME.
LITTLE OR NO CHGS TO FCST HRLY/HI TEMPS THIS UPDATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1100 AM UPDATE...BUOY OBSVD WV HTS WERE SIG HIER THAN
OUR LAST FCST...SO WE INCREASED THEM BY 2 TO 3 FT OVR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN SLOWLY MERGE THEM BACK TO
WW3 WV GUIDANCE OVRNGT THRU SUN MORN.

ORGNL DISC...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281628
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE: WE TOOK MENTION OF ANY RN OUT OF SN OVR DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS AFTN WITH ENOUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR
ALF TO SUSTAIN ALL SN OVR THIS PTN OF THE AREA (BASED ON OBS FROM
SW ME). LATEST SFC OBS FROM COASTAL DOWNEAST ME STILL NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SN REACHING THE GROUND
ATTM...DESPITE FAIRLY DECENT REF RETURNS OVR THIS AREA. MAY JUST
BE A MATTER OF TM... WITH A LOT OF DRY SUB-CLD AIR TO OVR COME.
LITTLE OR NO CHGS TO FCST HRLY/HI TEMPS THIS UPDATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1100 AM UPDATE...BUOY OBSVD WV HTS WERE SIG HIER THAN
OUR LAST FCST...SO WE INCREASED THEM BY 2 TO 3 FT OVR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN SLOWLY MERGE THEM BACK TO
WW3 WV GUIDANCE OVRNGT THRU SUN MORN.

ORGNL DISC...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1111 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1008 AM UPDATE: WE ADJUSTED CLD CVR DOWNWARD ACROSS THE N AND
INCREASED IT DOWN S BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY. ALSO...WE RAISED
HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N A FEW DEG F BASED ON MORE XPCTD SUNSHINE
THERE...WITH FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY CHGD
ACCORDINGLY BETWEEN 9 AM AND 8 PM.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1100 AM UPDATE...BUOY OBSVD WV HTS WERE SIG HIER THAN
OUR LAST FCST...SO WE INCREASED THEM BY 2 TO 3 FT OVR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN SLOWLY MERGE THEM BACK TO
WW3 WV GUIDANCE OVRNGT THRU SUN MORN.

ORGNL DISC...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1111 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1008 AM UPDATE: WE ADJUSTED CLD CVR DOWNWARD ACROSS THE N AND
INCREASED IT DOWN S BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY. ALSO...WE RAISED
HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N A FEW DEG F BASED ON MORE XPCTD SUNSHINE
THERE...WITH FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY CHGD
ACCORDINGLY BETWEEN 9 AM AND 8 PM.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1100 AM UPDATE...BUOY OBSVD WV HTS WERE SIG HIER THAN
OUR LAST FCST...SO WE INCREASED THEM BY 2 TO 3 FT OVR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN SLOWLY MERGE THEM BACK TO
WW3 WV GUIDANCE OVRNGT THRU SUN MORN.

ORGNL DISC...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1111 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1008 AM UPDATE: WE ADJUSTED CLD CVR DOWNWARD ACROSS THE N AND
INCREASED IT DOWN S BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY. ALSO...WE RAISED
HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N A FEW DEG F BASED ON MORE XPCTD SUNSHINE
THERE...WITH FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY CHGD
ACCORDINGLY BETWEEN 9 AM AND 8 PM.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1100 AM UPDATE...BUOY OBSVD WV HTS WERE SIG HIER THAN
OUR LAST FCST...SO WE INCREASED THEM BY 2 TO 3 FT OVR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN SLOWLY MERGE THEM BACK TO
WW3 WV GUIDANCE OVRNGT THRU SUN MORN.

ORGNL DISC...AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1029 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1008 AM UPDATE: WE ADJUSTED CLD CVR DOWNWARD ACROSS THE N AND
INCREASED IT DOWN S BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY. ALSO...WE RAISED
HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N A FEW DEG F BASED ON MORE XPCTD SUNSHINE
THERE...WITH FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY CHGD
ACCORDINGLY BETWEEN 9 AM AND 8 PM.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1029 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1008 AM UPDATE: WE ADJUSTED CLD CVR DOWNWARD ACROSS THE N AND
INCREASED IT DOWN S BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY. ALSO...WE RAISED
HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N A FEW DEG F BASED ON MORE XPCTD SUNSHINE
THERE...WITH FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY CHGD
ACCORDINGLY BETWEEN 9 AM AND 8 PM.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281353 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAKING VERY
LITTLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AS IT DEVELOPS/DEEPENS ABOUT 285 EAST OF
LONG ISLAND. THIS HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION ECHOES STALLED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING AS TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS. AS WELL AS THE
MESOSCALE LIFT... DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST AND WILL BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL EAST OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONADNOCK REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281353 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAKING VERY
LITTLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AS IT DEVELOPS/DEEPENS ABOUT 285 EAST OF
LONG ISLAND. THIS HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION ECHOES STALLED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING AS TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS. AS WELL AS THE
MESOSCALE LIFT... DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST AND WILL BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL EAST OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONADNOCK REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281353 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAKING VERY
LITTLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AS IT DEVELOPS/DEEPENS ABOUT 285 EAST OF
LONG ISLAND. THIS HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION ECHOES STALLED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING AS TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS. AS WELL AS THE
MESOSCALE LIFT... DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST AND WILL BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL EAST OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONADNOCK REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONOTONIC REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONOTONIC REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONOTONIC REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONOTONIC REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONOTONIC REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONOTONIC REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONOTONIC REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND NY TODAY AND MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WILL AID IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONOTONIC REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...THE SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
SOME STRATUS IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXES APPROACHES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
NEARS, POSSIBLY BRINGING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS
BUT DISSIPATING IN TIME TO ALLOW NORTHEASTERN AREAS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. MODIFIED SKY COVER A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...THE SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
SOME STRATUS IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXES APPROACHES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
NEARS, POSSIBLY BRINGING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS
BUT DISSIPATING IN TIME TO ALLOW NORTHEASTERN AREAS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. MODIFIED SKY COVER A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...THE SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
SOME STRATUS IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXES APPROACHES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
NEARS, POSSIBLY BRINGING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS
BUT DISSIPATING IN TIME TO ALLOW NORTHEASTERN AREAS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. MODIFIED SKY COVER A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...THE SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
SOME STRATUS IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXES APPROACHES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
NEARS, POSSIBLY BRINGING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS
BUT DISSIPATING IN TIME TO ALLOW NORTHEASTERN AREAS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. MODIFIED SKY COVER A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...THE SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
SOME STRATUS IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXES APPROACHES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
NEARS, POSSIBLY BRINGING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS
BUT DISSIPATING IN TIME TO ALLOW NORTHEASTERN AREAS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. MODIFIED SKY COVER A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A BIT OF PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW TO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY AND NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY SUNNY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DOWNEAST. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER FRIDAY
REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST TODAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY AND SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NY TODAY AND
MOVE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS EVENING. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL AID IN A
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO BE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERNMOST MAINE MAY SEE IT SNOW JUST HARD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MONOTONIC REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO
ELEVATION AND PROXIMITY TO BEST CONVERGENT ZONE. THE SUN ANGLE IS
QUITE HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO IT WILL TAKE A DECENT INTENSITY TO
ALLOW THE SNOW TO STICK EFFECTIVELY AND ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF ANY
NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

SINCE THIS IS A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN EVENT...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
NOWCASTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CHANGED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...THE UPSHOT IS THAT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING MAY FALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TODAY...COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING...IF NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME GETS GOING ON SUNDAY SO WE ARE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THRU THE
EXTENDED. BROAD TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...MEANING
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE SILVER
LINING FOR THOSE EAGER FOR SPRING IS THAT THE PATTERN DOESN/T SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED COLD BUT RATHER TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLDER
AIR.

THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES MON FROM THE W. PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF RA OR SN SHWRS WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE DAY. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE MTNS INTO
TUE...BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS AN END TO ANY PRECIP. IT IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MORE FOCUSED ON KEEPING THAT S OF OUR AREA. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AS THESE FAST MOVING...COMPACT S/WV TROFS ARE
DIFFICULT FOR NWP TO HANDLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE TIMING AN
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS BEING VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. OR
CONVERSELY THE STRONGER WAVE COULD DELAY LIKE THE ECMWF AND ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST SOME SN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT
TIMES...BUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. RA AND SN SHWRS WILL CROSS THE
AREA MON...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN FOR KHIE THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WLY FLOW AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUE AND WED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ACROSS SRN
NH AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY INITIALLY FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN PROBABLY JUST SEAS AOA 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROF HANGING AROUND THE ERN CONUS...THE WATERS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONTINUED SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280333
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1133 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD THE BEST ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST OFF
THE COAST W/THE BEST RAINFALL WELL S AND E OF THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS PER THE RADAR MOVING UP INTO SW MAINE W/SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE POPS AGAIN KEEPING THE N
AND W DRY. CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE (30-40%) FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION, PRIMARILY THE COAST W/THE WX ELEMENT BEING LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT
THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY
ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280333
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1133 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD THE BEST ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST OFF
THE COAST W/THE BEST RAINFALL WELL S AND E OF THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS PER THE RADAR MOVING UP INTO SW MAINE W/SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE POPS AGAIN KEEPING THE N
AND W DRY. CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE (30-40%) FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION, PRIMARILY THE COAST W/THE WX ELEMENT BEING LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT
THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY
ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280333
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1133 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD THE BEST ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST OFF
THE COAST W/THE BEST RAINFALL WELL S AND E OF THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS PER THE RADAR MOVING UP INTO SW MAINE W/SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE POPS AGAIN KEEPING THE N
AND W DRY. CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE (30-40%) FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION, PRIMARILY THE COAST W/THE WX ELEMENT BEING LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT
THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY
ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280333
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1133 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD THE BEST ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST OFF
THE COAST W/THE BEST RAINFALL WELL S AND E OF THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS PER THE RADAR MOVING UP INTO SW MAINE W/SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE POPS AGAIN KEEPING THE N
AND W DRY. CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE (30-40%) FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION, PRIMARILY THE COAST W/THE WX ELEMENT BEING LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT
THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY
ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280333
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1133 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD THE BEST ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST OFF
THE COAST W/THE BEST RAINFALL WELL S AND E OF THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS PER THE RADAR MOVING UP INTO SW MAINE W/SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE POPS AGAIN KEEPING THE N
AND W DRY. CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE (30-40%) FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION, PRIMARILY THE COAST W/THE WX ELEMENT BEING LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT
THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY
ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280333
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1133 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD THE BEST ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST OFF
THE COAST W/THE BEST RAINFALL WELL S AND E OF THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS PER THE RADAR MOVING UP INTO SW MAINE W/SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE POPS AGAIN KEEPING THE N
AND W DRY. CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE (30-40%) FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION, PRIMARILY THE COAST W/THE WX ELEMENT BEING LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT
THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY
ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280241
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1041 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1015 PM UPDATE: 00Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES PASSING WELL S AND
E OF THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS E. TEMPS HAVE BEEN DROPPING
OFF STEADILY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
READINGS ACROSS THE N AND W NOW DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
FURTHER S ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE
TEMPS UP SOME W/READINGS STILL IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE ATTM W/MID-UPPER TEENS N & W AND LOW TO
MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD THE BEST ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST OFF
THE COAST W/THE BEST RAINFALL WELL S AND E OF THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS PER THE RADAR MOVING UP INTO SW MAINE W/SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE POPS AGAIN KEEPING THE N
AND W DRY. CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE (30-40%) FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION, PRIMARILY THE COAST W/THE WX ELEMENT BEING LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT
THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY
ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280241
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1041 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1015 PM UPDATE: 00Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES PASSING WELL S AND
E OF THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS E. TEMPS HAVE BEEN DROPPING
OFF STEADILY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
READINGS ACROSS THE N AND W NOW DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
FURTHER S ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE
TEMPS UP SOME W/READINGS STILL IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE ATTM W/MID-UPPER TEENS N & W AND LOW TO
MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD THE BEST ENHANCED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST OFF
THE COAST W/THE BEST RAINFALL WELL S AND E OF THE REGION. SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS PER THE RADAR MOVING UP INTO SW MAINE W/SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE POPS AGAIN KEEPING THE N
AND W DRY. CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE (30-40%) FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION, PRIMARILY THE COAST W/THE WX ELEMENT BEING LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE TNGT
THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH LCLY
ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280131
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEW SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS.

VERY INTERESTING CASE TONIGHT AS A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY SET UP LATE AT NIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN MAINE AS H850 WINDS SWITCH
TO THE EAST AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM FROM TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO ANY POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL BE
MONITORING ANY PERSISTENT BANDS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR ANY POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
MOST PART...SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE A COATING TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE...BUT THE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THE LOCATION AND THE AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW.

PREV DISC...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...
MODELS HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND
OF MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280131
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEW SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS.

VERY INTERESTING CASE TONIGHT AS A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY SET UP LATE AT NIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN MAINE AS H850 WINDS SWITCH
TO THE EAST AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM FROM TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO ANY POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL BE
MONITORING ANY PERSISTENT BANDS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR ANY POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
MOST PART...SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE A COATING TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE...BUT THE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THE LOCATION AND THE AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW.

PREV DISC...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...
MODELS HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND
OF MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272140
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
540 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEW SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SET UP LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF WESTERN MAINE. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FROM TODAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL BE MONITORING ANY PERSISTENT
BANDS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR ANY
POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE A DUSTING TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...
MODELS HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND
OF MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272140
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
540 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEW SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SET UP LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF WESTERN MAINE. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FROM TODAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL BE MONITORING ANY PERSISTENT
BANDS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR ANY
POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE A DUSTING TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...
MODELS HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND
OF MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272140
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
540 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEW SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SET UP LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF WESTERN MAINE. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FROM TODAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL BE MONITORING ANY PERSISTENT
BANDS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR ANY
POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE A DUSTING TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...
MODELS HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND
OF MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272140
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
540 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEW SET OF
MESOSCALE MODELS. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SET UP LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF WESTERN MAINE. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FROM TODAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL BE MONITORING ANY PERSISTENT
BANDS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR ANY
POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE A DUSTING TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...
MODELS HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND
OF MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272134
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
534 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
520 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES TO MATCH THE LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE MT. KATAHDIN
REGION.THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED SOME
LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA(0.01") W/SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND 0-3KM LAPSE RATES OF 6.0C/KM. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO MATCH UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOWING WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...A MDTLY STRONG UPPER TROF OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND
OH/TN RVR VLYS WILL BE MOVG SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE NEAR TERM. SOME
OF THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FROM THIS UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN WEAK
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST LATE TNGT INTO SAT.
ONE OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SN SHWRS
LATER TNGT MSLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...PARTICULARLY OVR THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE
TNGT THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH
LCLY ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272134
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
534 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
520 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES TO MATCH THE LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE MT. KATAHDIN
REGION.THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED SOME
LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA(0.01") W/SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND 0-3KM LAPSE RATES OF 6.0C/KM. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO MATCH UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOWING WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...A MDTLY STRONG UPPER TROF OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND
OH/TN RVR VLYS WILL BE MOVG SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE NEAR TERM. SOME
OF THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FROM THIS UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN WEAK
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST LATE TNGT INTO SAT.
ONE OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SN SHWRS
LATER TNGT MSLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...PARTICULARLY OVR THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE
TNGT THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH
LCLY ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272134
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
534 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
520 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES TO MATCH THE LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE MT. KATAHDIN
REGION.THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED SOME
LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA(0.01") W/SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND 0-3KM LAPSE RATES OF 6.0C/KM. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO MATCH UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOWING WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...A MDTLY STRONG UPPER TROF OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND
OH/TN RVR VLYS WILL BE MOVG SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE NEAR TERM. SOME
OF THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FROM THIS UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN WEAK
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST LATE TNGT INTO SAT.
ONE OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SN SHWRS
LATER TNGT MSLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...PARTICULARLY OVR THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE
TNGT THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH
LCLY ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272134
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
534 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
520 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES TO MATCH THE LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE MT. KATAHDIN
REGION.THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED SOME
LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA(0.01") W/SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND 0-3KM LAPSE RATES OF 6.0C/KM. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO MATCH UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOWING WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...A MDTLY STRONG UPPER TROF OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND
OH/TN RVR VLYS WILL BE MOVG SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE NEAR TERM. SOME
OF THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FROM THIS UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN WEAK
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST LATE TNGT INTO SAT.
ONE OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SN SHWRS
LATER TNGT MSLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...PARTICULARLY OVR THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE
TNGT THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH
LCLY ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272009
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
409 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLD CVR BREAKING OVR THE N THIRD OF THE
FA AS OF MID AFTN...ELSEWHERE CLD CVR HAS REMAINED BKN-OVC. CLD
CVR WILL BE MOST UNCERTAIN OVR THE NE THIRD OF THE FA OVRNGT...WHICH
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY DYNAMICS FROM A UPPER TROF W OF THE
REGION.

OTHERWISE...A MDTLY STRONG UPPER TROF OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND
OH/TN RVR VLYS WILL BE MOVG SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE NEAR TERM. SOME
OF THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FROM THIS UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN WEAK
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST LATE TNGT INTO
SAT. ONE OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SN
SHWRS LATER TNGT MSLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...PARTICULARLY OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE
TNGT THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH
LCLY ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272009
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
409 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLD CVR BREAKING OVR THE N THIRD OF THE
FA AS OF MID AFTN...ELSEWHERE CLD CVR HAS REMAINED BKN-OVC. CLD
CVR WILL BE MOST UNCERTAIN OVR THE NE THIRD OF THE FA OVRNGT...WHICH
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY DYNAMICS FROM A UPPER TROF W OF THE
REGION.

OTHERWISE...A MDTLY STRONG UPPER TROF OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND
OH/TN RVR VLYS WILL BE MOVG SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE NEAR TERM. SOME
OF THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FROM THIS UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN WEAK
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST LATE TNGT INTO
SAT. ONE OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SN
SHWRS LATER TNGT MSLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...PARTICULARLY OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS.

AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE
TNGT THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH
LCLY ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.

WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271849
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE... MODELS
HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO COASTAL
MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY
HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271849
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE... MODELS
HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO COASTAL
MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY
HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271849
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE... MODELS
HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO COASTAL
MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY
HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271849
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY SLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE... MODELS
HINTING AT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO COASTAL
MAINE FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY
HELP ENHANCE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT QPF OFF MODELS SUGGESTS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW ALONG
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS OFF MODELS ARE
MINIMAL AND ACCEPTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS DAMMING THE COOLER AIR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO WARM THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILLS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT SEEMS TO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN GETTING VERY LITTLE
QPF. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STEERING FLOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A EASTERLY TRACK. MODELS
VARY FROM JUST SKIRTING OUR AREA TO BRINGING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NH AND
SW MAINE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
POSE A TRAVEL THREAT FOR EASTER WEEKEND. HOWEVER CURRENTLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE
POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES... WAVES OF MESOSCALE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
WARMING KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR PORTLAND AND CONCORD. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ALSO
SEEM TO BE NEAR THE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY... WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR KHIE AND KLEB TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE... BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. KPSM MAY SEE RAIN INSTEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SWAN WAVE MODELS
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.

LONG TERM...WAVES DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT AND LAST JUST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
     8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FLURRIES HAVE MOVED E OUT OF NE ME AS
OF THE TM OF THIS DISC...WITH SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
REGION ALSO MOVG E INTO NB PROV. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP FREE...WITH PERHAPS THE THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS SEEING NEW SHWR
ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTN AS WHATS LEFT OF ARCTIC FRONT
AND UPPER LVL TROF BEGINS TO APCH. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND HI TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN BASED ON BIAS TRENDS SEEN FROM NOON OBS FROM HE PRIOR HRLY
FCST AT NOON.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FLURRIES HAVE MOVED E OUT OF NE ME AS
OF THE TM OF THIS DISC...WITH SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
REGION ALSO MOVG E INTO NB PROV. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP FREE...WITH PERHAPS THE THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS SEEING NEW SHWR
ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTN AS WHATS LEFT OF ARCTIC FRONT
AND UPPER LVL TROF BEGINS TO APCH. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND HI TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN BASED ON BIAS TRENDS SEEN FROM NOON OBS FROM HE PRIOR HRLY
FCST AT NOON.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FLURRIES HAVE MOVED E OUT OF NE ME AS
OF THE TM OF THIS DISC...WITH SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
REGION ALSO MOVG E INTO NB PROV. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP FREE...WITH PERHAPS THE THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS SEEING NEW SHWR
ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTN AS WHATS LEFT OF ARCTIC FRONT
AND UPPER LVL TROF BEGINS TO APCH. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND HI TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN BASED ON BIAS TRENDS SEEN FROM NOON OBS FROM HE PRIOR HRLY
FCST AT NOON.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FLURRIES HAVE MOVED E OUT OF NE ME AS
OF THE TM OF THIS DISC...WITH SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
REGION ALSO MOVG E INTO NB PROV. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP FREE...WITH PERHAPS THE THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS SEEING NEW SHWR
ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTN AS WHATS LEFT OF ARCTIC FRONT
AND UPPER LVL TROF BEGINS TO APCH. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND HI TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN BASED ON BIAS TRENDS SEEN FROM NOON OBS FROM HE PRIOR HRLY
FCST AT NOON.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271403
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ADDED ISOLD SN SHWRS/SCT FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY OVR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON OBSVD
LOWS...9 AM OBS AND FCST HI TEMPS WHICH NEEDED TO BE RAISED A
COUPLE OF DEG F BASED ON POSITIVE BIASES OF THE OBSVD LOWS AND 9
AM OBS FROM PRIOR FCSTS ATTM OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271403
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ADDED ISOLD SN SHWRS/SCT FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY OVR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON OBSVD
LOWS...9 AM OBS AND FCST HI TEMPS WHICH NEEDED TO BE RAISED A
COUPLE OF DEG F BASED ON POSITIVE BIASES OF THE OBSVD LOWS AND 9
AM OBS FROM PRIOR FCSTS ATTM OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271403
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ADDED ISOLD SN SHWRS/SCT FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY OVR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON OBSVD
LOWS...9 AM OBS AND FCST HI TEMPS WHICH NEEDED TO BE RAISED A
COUPLE OF DEG F BASED ON POSITIVE BIASES OF THE OBSVD LOWS AND 9
AM OBS FROM PRIOR FCSTS ATTM OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271403
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ADDED ISOLD SN SHWRS/SCT FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY OVR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON OBSVD
LOWS...9 AM OBS AND FCST HI TEMPS WHICH NEEDED TO BE RAISED A
COUPLE OF DEG F BASED ON POSITIVE BIASES OF THE OBSVD LOWS AND 9
AM OBS FROM PRIOR FCSTS ATTM OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271001
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
601 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271001
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
601 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
601 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0600 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
TO BETTER FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
601 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0600 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
TO BETTER FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270413
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0010 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING BACK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE 32F AS
FAR NORTH AS FRENCHVILLE. SOME DRIER ADN COLDER AIR WAS WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST W/THE UPPER TROF. THINKING HERE IS THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS UPWARD. LOWERED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL W/THE LOWERING THE PRECIP CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP NOT MUCH
FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS. COLDER
SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB BEGINNING
VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270413
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0010 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING BACK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE 32F AS
FAR NORTH AS FRENCHVILLE. SOME DRIER ADN COLDER AIR WAS WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST W/THE UPPER TROF. THINKING HERE IS THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS UPWARD. LOWERED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL W/THE LOWERING THE PRECIP CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP NOT MUCH
FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS. COLDER
SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB BEGINNING
VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




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