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000
FXUS61 KGYX 270150
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
950 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

950 PM...THIS IS A MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
615 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270150
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
950 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

950 PM...THIS IS A MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
615 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES


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000
FXUS61 KCAR 270116
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
916 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
.915 PM UPDATE. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGIN ACROSS NRN
MAINE. UPDATE TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY
TEMPS AND SKY CON...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK OF THIS LOW, DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARITIMES TONIGHT TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPINNING WESTWARD THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TO
THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY MOVG W TO E INTO OUR AREA ARND
AN QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL STILL KEEP
MCLDY...UNSETTLED AND FAIRLY RAW CONDITIONS OVR THE FA...WITH
A SIG AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HTG...
MEANING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE MON EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN
AND EVE. A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT ON WED...WITH THE OPERATIVE
WORD BEING LITTLE...WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE
WED AFTN OVR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. QPF WITH SHWRS WILL
BE FAIRLY LCLZD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
CUMULATIVE THRU WED FOR MOST LCTNS. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY HELD
BELOW AVG DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO CLD CVR AND ANY SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE FA WED NGT AND THU AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC A NARROW UPPER RIDGE/COL ZONE
OF VERY WEAK FLOW ALF MOVES OVR THE FA.

AFTWRDS...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT FOR
FRI AND SAT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN
PHASING WITH SRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVG ENE FROM THE LOWER MS
RVR VLY. THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH S/WV ENERGY
DIGGING SSEWRD FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW AND MUCH STRONGER...FURTHER N SFC LOW INTO THE
SRN GULF OF ME. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW BEING
WEAKER...MOVG MORE EWRD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE SUPERBLEND DOES
INTRODUCE LOW CHC RN POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT TO SRN PTNS OF THE
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN FACT...CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THIS TO
BE THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR OUR FA...AND WPC MED RANGE
GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE BEGIN TO GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG WRMG ERLY NEXT WEEK AFT
THE UNCERTAINTY PD WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS
WEEK/ERLY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE.
PREVAILING IFR IS LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KHUL BY 06Z, WITH
CEILINGS WAVERING RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET AT THE OTHER SITES.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
PREVAILING MVFR EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR...XCPT MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS WITH ANY SHWRS...
SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TUE THRU TUE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WIND AND MARGINAL SEAS ARE LIKELY LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN NO HDLNS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU THU NGT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3...XCPT FOR FRI-SAT TM FRAME...WHERE WE LOWERED WV HTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FACTORING A WEAKER AND
FURTHER S ECMWF STM SOLUTION IN THIS TM FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270116
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
916 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
.915 PM UPDATE. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGIN ACROSS NRN
MAINE. UPDATE TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY
TEMPS AND SKY CON...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK OF THIS LOW, DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARITIMES TONIGHT TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPINNING WESTWARD THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TO
THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY MOVG W TO E INTO OUR AREA ARND
AN QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL STILL KEEP
MCLDY...UNSETTLED AND FAIRLY RAW CONDITIONS OVR THE FA...WITH
A SIG AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HTG...
MEANING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE MON EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN
AND EVE. A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT ON WED...WITH THE OPERATIVE
WORD BEING LITTLE...WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE
WED AFTN OVR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. QPF WITH SHWRS WILL
BE FAIRLY LCLZD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
CUMULATIVE THRU WED FOR MOST LCTNS. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY HELD
BELOW AVG DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO CLD CVR AND ANY SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE FA WED NGT AND THU AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC A NARROW UPPER RIDGE/COL ZONE
OF VERY WEAK FLOW ALF MOVES OVR THE FA.

AFTWRDS...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT FOR
FRI AND SAT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN
PHASING WITH SRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVG ENE FROM THE LOWER MS
RVR VLY. THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH S/WV ENERGY
DIGGING SSEWRD FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW AND MUCH STRONGER...FURTHER N SFC LOW INTO THE
SRN GULF OF ME. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW BEING
WEAKER...MOVG MORE EWRD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE SUPERBLEND DOES
INTRODUCE LOW CHC RN POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT TO SRN PTNS OF THE
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN FACT...CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THIS TO
BE THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR OUR FA...AND WPC MED RANGE
GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE BEGIN TO GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG WRMG ERLY NEXT WEEK AFT
THE UNCERTAINTY PD WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS
WEEK/ERLY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE.
PREVAILING IFR IS LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KHUL BY 06Z, WITH
CEILINGS WAVERING RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET AT THE OTHER SITES.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
PREVAILING MVFR EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR...XCPT MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS WITH ANY SHWRS...
SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TUE THRU TUE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WIND AND MARGINAL SEAS ARE LIKELY LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN NO HDLNS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU THU NGT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3...XCPT FOR FRI-SAT TM FRAME...WHERE WE LOWERED WV HTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FACTORING A WEAKER AND
FURTHER S ECMWF STM SOLUTION IN THIS TM FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270116
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
916 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
.915 PM UPDATE. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGIN ACROSS NRN
MAINE. UPDATE TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY
TEMPS AND SKY CON...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK OF THIS LOW, DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARITIMES TONIGHT TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPINNING WESTWARD THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TO
THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY MOVG W TO E INTO OUR AREA ARND
AN QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL STILL KEEP
MCLDY...UNSETTLED AND FAIRLY RAW CONDITIONS OVR THE FA...WITH
A SIG AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HTG...
MEANING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE MON EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN
AND EVE. A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT ON WED...WITH THE OPERATIVE
WORD BEING LITTLE...WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE
WED AFTN OVR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. QPF WITH SHWRS WILL
BE FAIRLY LCLZD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
CUMULATIVE THRU WED FOR MOST LCTNS. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY HELD
BELOW AVG DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO CLD CVR AND ANY SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE FA WED NGT AND THU AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC A NARROW UPPER RIDGE/COL ZONE
OF VERY WEAK FLOW ALF MOVES OVR THE FA.

AFTWRDS...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT FOR
FRI AND SAT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN
PHASING WITH SRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVG ENE FROM THE LOWER MS
RVR VLY. THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH S/WV ENERGY
DIGGING SSEWRD FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW AND MUCH STRONGER...FURTHER N SFC LOW INTO THE
SRN GULF OF ME. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW BEING
WEAKER...MOVG MORE EWRD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE SUPERBLEND DOES
INTRODUCE LOW CHC RN POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT TO SRN PTNS OF THE
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN FACT...CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THIS TO
BE THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR OUR FA...AND WPC MED RANGE
GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE BEGIN TO GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG WRMG ERLY NEXT WEEK AFT
THE UNCERTAINTY PD WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS
WEEK/ERLY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE.
PREVAILING IFR IS LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KHUL BY 06Z, WITH
CEILINGS WAVERING RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET AT THE OTHER SITES.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
PREVAILING MVFR EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR...XCPT MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS WITH ANY SHWRS...
SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TUE THRU TUE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WIND AND MARGINAL SEAS ARE LIKELY LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN NO HDLNS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU THU NGT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3...XCPT FOR FRI-SAT TM FRAME...WHERE WE LOWERED WV HTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FACTORING A WEAKER AND
FURTHER S ECMWF STM SOLUTION IN THIS TM FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270116
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
916 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
.915 PM UPDATE. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGIN ACROSS NRN
MAINE. UPDATE TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY
TEMPS AND SKY CON...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK OF THIS LOW, DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARITIMES TONIGHT TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPINNING WESTWARD THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TO
THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY MOVG W TO E INTO OUR AREA ARND
AN QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL STILL KEEP
MCLDY...UNSETTLED AND FAIRLY RAW CONDITIONS OVR THE FA...WITH
A SIG AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HTG...
MEANING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE MON EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN
AND EVE. A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT ON WED...WITH THE OPERATIVE
WORD BEING LITTLE...WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE
WED AFTN OVR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. QPF WITH SHWRS WILL
BE FAIRLY LCLZD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
CUMULATIVE THRU WED FOR MOST LCTNS. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY HELD
BELOW AVG DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO CLD CVR AND ANY SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE FA WED NGT AND THU AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC A NARROW UPPER RIDGE/COL ZONE
OF VERY WEAK FLOW ALF MOVES OVR THE FA.

AFTWRDS...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT FOR
FRI AND SAT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN
PHASING WITH SRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVG ENE FROM THE LOWER MS
RVR VLY. THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH S/WV ENERGY
DIGGING SSEWRD FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW AND MUCH STRONGER...FURTHER N SFC LOW INTO THE
SRN GULF OF ME. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW BEING
WEAKER...MOVG MORE EWRD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE SUPERBLEND DOES
INTRODUCE LOW CHC RN POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT TO SRN PTNS OF THE
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN FACT...CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THIS TO
BE THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR OUR FA...AND WPC MED RANGE
GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE BEGIN TO GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG WRMG ERLY NEXT WEEK AFT
THE UNCERTAINTY PD WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS
WEEK/ERLY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE.
PREVAILING IFR IS LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KHUL BY 06Z, WITH
CEILINGS WAVERING RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET AT THE OTHER SITES.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
PREVAILING MVFR EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR...XCPT MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS WITH ANY SHWRS...
SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TUE THRU TUE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WIND AND MARGINAL SEAS ARE LIKELY LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN NO HDLNS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU THU NGT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3...XCPT FOR FRI-SAT TM FRAME...WHERE WE LOWERED WV HTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FACTORING A WEAKER AND
FURTHER S ECMWF STM SOLUTION IN THIS TM FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 262302
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
702 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
.645 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKY
CON...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK OF THIS LOW, DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARITIMES TONIGHT TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPINNING WESTWARD THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TO
THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY MOVG W TO E INTO OUR AREA ARND
AN QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL STILL KEEP
MCLDY...UNSETTLED AND FAIRLY RAW CONDITIONS OVR THE FA...WITH
A SIG AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HTG...
MEANING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE MON EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN
AND EVE. A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT ON WED...WITH THE OPERATIVE
WORD BEING LITTLE...WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE
WED AFTN OVR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. QPF WITH SHWRS WILL
BE FAIRLY LCLZD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
CUMULATIVE THRU WED FOR MOST LCTNS. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY HELD
BELOW AVG DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO CLD CVR AND ANY SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE FA WED NGT AND THU AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC A NARROW UPPER RIDGE/COL ZONE
OF VERY WEAK FLOW ALF MOVES OVR THE FA.

AFTWRDS...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT FOR
FRI AND SAT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN
PHASING WITH SRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVG ENE FROM THE LOWER MS
RVR VLY. THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH S/WV ENERGY
DIGGING SSEWRD FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW AND MUCH STRONGER...FURTHER N SFC LOW INTO THE
SRN GULF OF ME. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW BEING
WEAKER...MOVG MORE EWRD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE SUPERBLEND DOES
INTRODUCE LOW CHC RN POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT TO SRN PTNS OF THE
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN FACT...CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THIS TO
BE THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR OUR FA...AND WPC MED RANGE
GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE BEGIN TO GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG WRMG ERLY NEXT WEEK AFT
THE UNCERTAINTY PD WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS
WEEK/ERLY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE.
PREVAILING IFR IS LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KHUL BY 06Z, WITH
CEILINGS WAVERING RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET AT THE OTHER SITES.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
PREVAILING MVFR EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR...XCPT MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS WITH ANY SHWRS...
SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TUE THRU TUE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WIND AND MARGINAL SEAS ARE LIKELY LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN NO HDLNS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU THU NGT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3...XCPT FOR FRI-SAT TM FRAME...WHERE WE LOWERED WV HTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FACTORING A WEAKER AND
FURTHER S ECMWF STM SOLUTION IN THIS TM FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262221
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
621 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

615 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262221
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
621 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

615 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK OF THIS LOW, DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARITIMES TONIGHT TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPINNING WESTWARD THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TO
THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY MOVG W TO E INTO OUR AREA ARND
AN QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL STILL KEEP
MCLDY...UNSETTLED AND FAIRLY RAW CONDITIONS OVR THE FA...WITH
A SIG AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HTG...
MEANING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE MON EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN
AND EVE. A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT ON WED...WITH THE OPERATIVE
WORD BEING LITTLE...WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE
WED AFTN OVR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. QPF WITH SHWRS WILL
BE FAIRLY LCLZD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
CUMULATIVE THRU WED FOR MOST LCTNS. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY HELD
BELOW AVG DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO CLD CVR AND ANY SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE FA WED NGT AND THU AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC A NARROW UPPER RIDGE/COL ZONE
OF VERY WEAK FLOW ALF MOVES OVR THE FA.

AFTWRDS...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT FOR
FRI AND SAT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN
PHASING WITH SRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVG ENE FROM THE LOWER MS
RVR VLY. THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH S/WV ENERGY
DIGGING SSEWRD FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW AND MUCH STRONGER...FURTHER N SFC LOW INTO THE
SRN GULF OF ME. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW BEING
WEAKER...MOVG MORE EWRD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE SUPERBLEND DOES
INTRODUCE LOW CHC RN POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT TO SRN PTNS OF THE
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN FACT...CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THIS TO
BE THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR OUR FA...AND WPC MED RANGE
GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE BEGIN TO GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG WRMG ERLY NEXT WEEK AFT
THE UNCERTAINTY PD WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS
WEEK/ERLY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE.
PREVAILING IFR IS LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KHUL BY 06Z, WITH
CEILINGS WAVERING RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET AT THE OTHER SITES.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
PREVAILING MVFR EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR...XCPT MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS WITH ANY SHWRS...
SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TUE THRU TUE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WIND AND MARGINAL SEAS ARE LIKELY LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN NO HDLNS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU THU NGT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3...XCPT FOR FRI-SAT TM FRAME...WHERE WE LOWERED WV HTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FACTORING A WEAKER AND
FURTHER S ECMWF STM SOLUTION IN THIS TM FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK OF THIS LOW, DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARITIMES TONIGHT TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPINNING WESTWARD THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TO
THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY MOVG W TO E INTO OUR AREA ARND
AN QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL STILL KEEP
MCLDY...UNSETTLED AND FAIRLY RAW CONDITIONS OVR THE FA...WITH
A SIG AMOUNT OF SHWR ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HTG...
MEANING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WILL BE MON EVE AND AGAIN TUE AFTN
AND EVE. A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT ON WED...WITH THE OPERATIVE
WORD BEING LITTLE...WITH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE
WED AFTN OVR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. QPF WITH SHWRS WILL
BE FAIRLY LCLZD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
CUMULATIVE THRU WED FOR MOST LCTNS. TEMPS WILL BE MSLY HELD
BELOW AVG DURG DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO CLD CVR AND ANY SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE FA WED NGT AND THU AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC A NARROW UPPER RIDGE/COL ZONE
OF VERY WEAK FLOW ALF MOVES OVR THE FA.

AFTWRDS...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT FOR
FRI AND SAT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN
PHASING WITH SRN JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVG ENE FROM THE LOWER MS
RVR VLY. THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH S/WV ENERGY
DIGGING SSEWRD FROM CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN A STRONGER...MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW AND MUCH STRONGER...FURTHER N SFC LOW INTO THE
SRN GULF OF ME. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN...RESULTING IN BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW BEING
WEAKER...MOVG MORE EWRD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE SUPERBLEND DOES
INTRODUCE LOW CHC RN POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT TO SRN PTNS OF THE
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN FACT...CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THIS TO
BE THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR OUR FA...AND WPC MED RANGE
GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE BEGIN TO GO WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THIS LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG WRMG ERLY NEXT WEEK AFT
THE UNCERTAINTY PD WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS
WEEK/ERLY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE.
PREVAILING IFR IS LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KHUL BY 06Z, WITH
CEILINGS WAVERING RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET AT THE OTHER SITES.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
PREVAILING MVFR EVERYWHERE BY 14Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR...XCPT MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS WITH ANY SHWRS...
SPCLY NRN TAF SITES TUE THRU TUE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BOTH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WIND AND MARGINAL SEAS ARE LIKELY LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN NO HDLNS XPCTD TUE NGT THRU THU NGT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3...XCPT FOR FRI-SAT TM FRAME...WHERE WE LOWERED WV HTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FACTORING A WEAKER AND
FURTHER S ECMWF STM SOLUTION IN THIS TM FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261927
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261927
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261927
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THEY HAVEN`T COME UP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES. OTHERWISE,
JUST MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO POPS AND SKY TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE
MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY
CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261642
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THEY HAVEN`T COME UP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST PLACES. OTHERWISE,
JUST MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO POPS AND SKY TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE
MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY
CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261348
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS
TO AT LEAST 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES WE`LL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME
HEATING, MUCH LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE
MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY
CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261348
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS
TO AT LEAST 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES WE`LL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME
HEATING, MUCH LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE
MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY
CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261348
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS
TO AT LEAST 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES WE`LL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME
HEATING, MUCH LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE
MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY
CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261348
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS
TO AT LEAST 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES WE`LL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME
HEATING, MUCH LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE
MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY
CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261117
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261117
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT AND WIND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260802
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260802
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260802
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260802
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE MOVING AROUND
THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COLD ALOFT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL THEREFORE USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WIND GRIDS WILL BE FROM THE
MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN W/US THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FORECAST TO DROP
SSE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY W/MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CROWN AND WESTERN MAINE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S THINKING W/STARTING OFF THE DAY W/60-80% POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING
SWINGS S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS
THE BEST SUPPORT SWINGS S OF THE CWA. STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL W/AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY HITTING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST W/LOW 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR GETS
PULLED S FROM THE NE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
W/ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING W/OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF
SNOW AS FAR S AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS POINTING TO THIS COLDER AIR
WRAPPING BACK AROUND. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS NOW SUPPORT A COLDER
SOLUTION AS WELL W/THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLING BELOW 0C DOWN TO
900MBS W/THE BLYR AT ABOUT 3C(37F). THIS IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
AS IT BRINGS 925MB TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO A RANGE -1 TO
-2 C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEPT ANY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BACK ACROSS
THE W. DECIDED TO GO W/MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CWA INCLUDING THE
COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT MINS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND DAMP
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE LOW TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL W/SOME MARITIME BEING WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THAT PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGING MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HRS AS THE UPPER
LOW HANGS ON.

ALL THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW,
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES LOOK
LIKE IT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT HITS THE RIDGE IN PLACE W/PRECIP
ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEW REGION FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR AND KHUL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS W/RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PREVAILING MVFR W/A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON(AFTER 18Z). ALL TERMINAL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/A RETURN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WITH WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT INPLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SURFACE WINDS. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST TO BE
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WNA SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW WITH BOTH THE PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/WINDS HITTING 20-25 KTS AS LOW PRES DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLYSUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT AS THE WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260759
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
359 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260759
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
359 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260406
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1206 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0005 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260406
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1206 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0005 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260406
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1206 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0005 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260406
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1206 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0005 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260406
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1206 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0005 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260406
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1206 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0005 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
953 PM UPDATE...THE DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINING IN NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THE WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
AND PARTS OF THE ALLAGASH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS. SNOW WILL
BE FAVORED OVER RAIN...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN
INCH...LOCALLY EVEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM THE EARLIER UPDATED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
953 PM UPDATE...THE DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINING IN NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THE WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
AND PARTS OF THE ALLAGASH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS. SNOW WILL
BE FAVORED OVER RAIN...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN
INCH...LOCALLY EVEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM THE EARLIER UPDATED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
953 PM UPDATE...THE DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINING IN NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THE WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
AND PARTS OF THE ALLAGASH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS. SNOW WILL
BE FAVORED OVER RAIN...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN
INCH...LOCALLY EVEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM THE EARLIER UPDATED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
953 PM UPDATE...THE DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINING IN NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THE WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
AND PARTS OF THE ALLAGASH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS. SNOW WILL
BE FAVORED OVER RAIN...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN
INCH...LOCALLY EVEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM THE EARLIER UPDATED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN AT BGR AND BHB. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252228
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER MAINE
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY....AND THE COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630PM UPDATE... JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT
SHRA/SHSN IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO
PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM MAKING IT ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT COULD SEE A SPKL/FLRY...MAINLY IN THE KENNEBEC AND
PENOBSCOT VLYS THRU ABOUT SUNSET. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOME
CLEARING THIS EVE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN
THE MTNS. MINS DROP BACK INTO 30S TONIGHT...AROUND 40 ON THE COAST
AND IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES SWD AROUND THAT CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
PULLS THE LOW BACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST...SO EXPECT MORE
PASSING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL
WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. ALSO TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING SO ANY SHSN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAXES IN THE MTNS...AS GUIDANCE
WAS TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW.

A STRONGER WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT SW AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVES IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS DIMINISHES
BY MID WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING
JUST TO OUR EAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FOR WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD AND PROVIDE A DRY WARM DAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY...THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHSN AT KHIE INTO THIS
EVE.  COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE IN LATER SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE AND FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER SRN NH AND SW ME...RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252228
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER MAINE
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY....AND THE COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630PM UPDATE... JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT
SHRA/SHSN IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO
PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM MAKING IT ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT COULD SEE A SPKL/FLRY...MAINLY IN THE KENNEBEC AND
PENOBSCOT VLYS THRU ABOUT SUNSET. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOME
CLEARING THIS EVE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN
THE MTNS. MINS DROP BACK INTO 30S TONIGHT...AROUND 40 ON THE COAST
AND IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES SWD AROUND THAT CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
PULLS THE LOW BACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST...SO EXPECT MORE
PASSING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL
WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. ALSO TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING SO ANY SHSN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAXES IN THE MTNS...AS GUIDANCE
WAS TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW.

A STRONGER WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT SW AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVES IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS DIMINISHES
BY MID WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING
JUST TO OUR EAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FOR WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD AND PROVIDE A DRY WARM DAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY...THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHSN AT KHIE INTO THIS
EVE.  COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE IN LATER SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE AND FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER SRN NH AND SW ME...RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THE NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL BRING SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO FAR NORTHERN
MAINE ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM AROUND 06-10Z AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL BE
FAVORED OVER RAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN
INCH...LOCALLY EVEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE ST
JOHN VALLEY AND IN THE ALLAGASH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR AND BHB.
MVFR CIGS/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
THOUGH LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE NW NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 252215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THE NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL BRING SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO FAR NORTHERN
MAINE ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM AROUND 06-10Z AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL BE
FAVORED OVER RAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN
INCH...LOCALLY EVEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE ST
JOHN VALLEY AND IN THE ALLAGASH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR AND BHB.
MVFR CIGS/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
THOUGH LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE NW NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252215
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THE NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL BRING SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO FAR NORTHERN
MAINE ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM AROUND 06-10Z AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL BE
FAVORED OVER RAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN
INCH...LOCALLY EVEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE ST
JOHN VALLEY AND IN THE ALLAGASH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR AND BHB.
MVFR CIGS/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
THOUGH LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE NW NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251925
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER MAINE
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY....AND THE COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT
SHRA/SHSN IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO
PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM MAKING IT ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT COULD SEE A SPKL/FLRY...MAINLY IN THE KENNEBEC AND
PENOBSCOT VLYS THRU ABOUT SUNSET. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOME
CLEARING THIS EVE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN
THE MTNS. MINS DROP BACK INTO 30S TONIGHT...AROUND 40 ON THE COAST
AND IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES SWD AROUND THAT CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
PULLS THE LOW BACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST...SO EXPECT MORE
PASSING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL
WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. ALSO TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING SO ANY SHSN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAXES IN THE MTNS...AS GUIDANCE
WAS TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW.

A STRONGER WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT SW AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVES IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS DIMINISHES
BY MID WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING
JUST TO OUR EAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FOR WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD AND PROVIDE A DRY WARM DAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY...THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHSN AT KHIE INTO THIS
EVE.  COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE IN LATER SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE AND FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER SRN NH AND SW ME...RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251925
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER MAINE
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY....AND THE COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT
SHRA/SHSN IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO
PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM MAKING IT ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT COULD SEE A SPKL/FLRY...MAINLY IN THE KENNEBEC AND
PENOBSCOT VLYS THRU ABOUT SUNSET. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOME
CLEARING THIS EVE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN
THE MTNS. MINS DROP BACK INTO 30S TONIGHT...AROUND 40 ON THE COAST
AND IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES SWD AROUND THAT CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
PULLS THE LOW BACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST...SO EXPECT MORE
PASSING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL
WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. ALSO TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING SO ANY SHSN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAXES IN THE MTNS...AS GUIDANCE
WAS TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW.

A STRONGER WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT SW AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVES IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS DIMINISHES
BY MID WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING
JUST TO OUR EAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FOR WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD AND PROVIDE A DRY WARM DAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY...THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHSN AT KHIE INTO THIS
EVE.  COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE IN LATER SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE AND FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER SRN NH AND SW ME...RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
312 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR AND BHB.
MVFR CIGS/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
THOUGH LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE NW NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251912
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
312 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
LATE TONIGHT BUT SUBTLE LOBES OF S/WV ENERGY EXPECTED TO RMN THRU
END OF NR TERM AND BYND. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DIE
OFF AFT SUNSET TONIGHT OVR MOST OF CWA WITH MOST OF THE UPR LVL
ENERGY CONCENTRATED ON EXTRM NW ZONES.

EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SHOWERS AFT 00Z THEN BCM ALL
SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. BEST ACCUMS ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AROOSTOOK
AND NRN SOMERSET MAY AMNT TO ONE-HALF INCH THRU MRNG THO FORCING
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENUF TO SEE THE AMNTS THAT WERE SEEN
THIS MRNG.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS DRG THE DAY TOMORROW LEADING TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS.
THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION STICKS AROUND. LOBES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT WON`T LINGER LONG PAST DAYBREAK. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY WILL ONLY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY BEGINS TO
GIVE WAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
WEST. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER
REDEVELOPS UNDER ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
BY LATE SATURDAY. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPERBLEND...MAINLY
REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR AND BHB.
MVFR CIGS/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
THOUGH LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE NW NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PREVAILING MVFR,
WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, WITH ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z. SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR RETURNS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MARITIMES. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251736
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
136 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL SHOWERS HV POPPED UP AS EXPECTED WITH JUST LGT QPF AMNTS
THUS FAR. UPR LOW CONTS TO SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW BRINGING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO CWA.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

945 AM UPDATE...
QUICK MASSAGE OF HRLY T/TD VALUES. DROPPED POPS ACRS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MRNG AS THINGS HV WOUND DOWN UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DVLP DRG THE AFTN HRS. AS IT
STANDS NOW FIRST S/WV HAS MVD TWD THE COAST WITH NEXT WV RMNG UP
IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.

THIS HAS PUT CWA SQUARE IN NVA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING UNTIL WV
CAN DROP CLOSER TO THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS MAY HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST IN COMBO WITH DIURNAL HTG. FOR
NOW, WL WORD PTYPE AS SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THRU 16Z BFR THICKNESSES
RISE ENUF FOR ALL LIQUID. QPF AMNTS WL BE LIGHT THRU TDA.

UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD
PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT FVE, CAR, PQI
AND HUL. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE RISING TO MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR
AND BHB. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF VALID
TIME.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251736
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
136 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL SHOWERS HV POPPED UP AS EXPECTED WITH JUST LGT QPF AMNTS
THUS FAR. UPR LOW CONTS TO SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW BRINGING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO CWA.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

945 AM UPDATE...
QUICK MASSAGE OF HRLY T/TD VALUES. DROPPED POPS ACRS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MRNG AS THINGS HV WOUND DOWN UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DVLP DRG THE AFTN HRS. AS IT
STANDS NOW FIRST S/WV HAS MVD TWD THE COAST WITH NEXT WV RMNG UP
IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.

THIS HAS PUT CWA SQUARE IN NVA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING UNTIL WV
CAN DROP CLOSER TO THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS MAY HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST IN COMBO WITH DIURNAL HTG. FOR
NOW, WL WORD PTYPE AS SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THRU 16Z BFR THICKNESSES
RISE ENUF FOR ALL LIQUID. QPF AMNTS WL BE LIGHT THRU TDA.

UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD
PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT FVE, CAR, PQI
AND HUL. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE RISING TO MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR
AND BHB. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF VALID
TIME.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251736
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
136 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL SHOWERS HV POPPED UP AS EXPECTED WITH JUST LGT QPF AMNTS
THUS FAR. UPR LOW CONTS TO SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW BRINGING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO CWA.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

945 AM UPDATE...
QUICK MASSAGE OF HRLY T/TD VALUES. DROPPED POPS ACRS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MRNG AS THINGS HV WOUND DOWN UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DVLP DRG THE AFTN HRS. AS IT
STANDS NOW FIRST S/WV HAS MVD TWD THE COAST WITH NEXT WV RMNG UP
IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.

THIS HAS PUT CWA SQUARE IN NVA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING UNTIL WV
CAN DROP CLOSER TO THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS MAY HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST IN COMBO WITH DIURNAL HTG. FOR
NOW, WL WORD PTYPE AS SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THRU 16Z BFR THICKNESSES
RISE ENUF FOR ALL LIQUID. QPF AMNTS WL BE LIGHT THRU TDA.

UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD
PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT FVE, CAR, PQI
AND HUL. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE RISING TO MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR
AND BHB. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF VALID
TIME.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251736
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
136 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL SHOWERS HV POPPED UP AS EXPECTED WITH JUST LGT QPF AMNTS
THUS FAR. UPR LOW CONTS TO SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW BRINGING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO CWA.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

945 AM UPDATE...
QUICK MASSAGE OF HRLY T/TD VALUES. DROPPED POPS ACRS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MRNG AS THINGS HV WOUND DOWN UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DVLP DRG THE AFTN HRS. AS IT
STANDS NOW FIRST S/WV HAS MVD TWD THE COAST WITH NEXT WV RMNG UP
IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.

THIS HAS PUT CWA SQUARE IN NVA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING UNTIL WV
CAN DROP CLOSER TO THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS MAY HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST IN COMBO WITH DIURNAL HTG. FOR
NOW, WL WORD PTYPE AS SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THRU 16Z BFR THICKNESSES
RISE ENUF FOR ALL LIQUID. QPF AMNTS WL BE LIGHT THRU TDA.

UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD
PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT FVE, CAR, PQI
AND HUL. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE RISING TO MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT BGR
AND BHB. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF VALID
TIME.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM...QUICK UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WHICH FEATURES SOME
ADJUSTING OF POPS...MAINLY TO CHANGE WORDING TO SPKLS OR
FLURRIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE
KENNEBEC/PENOBSCOT VLY REGIONS. SW ME AND SRN HALF OF NH LOOK
MAINLY DRY.

950 AM...STACKED CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER DOWNEAST ME THIS
MORNING...AND A LITTLE PULSE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING SWD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF IT...WHICH IS HELPING TO SET OFF A SHSN/RA AND
SPKLS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD SHIFT SWD AND OFFSHORE
BY MIDDAY...WITH A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA /WITH JUST SN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/
MOVING AROUND 19-21Z...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WHICH GET UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT...AND THE ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
POPS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
RAP/HRRR/NCAR 3KM. TEMPS/SKY WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...WITH MORE SUN IN SRN NH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES THERE.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MAINE IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST
PART OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM...QUICK UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WHICH FEATURES SOME
ADJUSTING OF POPS...MAINLY TO CHANGE WORDING TO SPKLS OR
FLURRIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE
KENNEBEC/PENOBSCOT VLY REGIONS. SW ME AND SRN HALF OF NH LOOK
MAINLY DRY.

950 AM...STACKED CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER DOWNEAST ME THIS
MORNING...AND A LITTLE PULSE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING SWD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF IT...WHICH IS HELPING TO SET OFF A SHSN/RA AND
SPKLS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD SHIFT SWD AND OFFSHORE
BY MIDDAY...WITH A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA /WITH JUST SN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/
MOVING AROUND 19-21Z...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WHICH GET UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT...AND THE ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
POPS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
RAP/HRRR/NCAR 3KM. TEMPS/SKY WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...WITH MORE SUN IN SRN NH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES THERE.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MAINE IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST
PART OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251359
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...STACKED CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER DOWNEAST ME THIS
MORNING...AND A LITTLE PULSE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING SWD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF IT...WHICH IS HELPING TO SET OFF A SHSN/RA AND
SPKLS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD SHIFT SWD AND OFFSHORE
BY MIDDAY...WITH A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA /WITH JUST SN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/
MOVING AROUND 19-21Z...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WHICH GET UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT...AND THE ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
POPS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
RAP/HRRR/NCAR 3KM. TEMPS/SKY WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...WITH MORE SUN IN SRN NH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES THERE.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MAINE IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST
PART OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251359
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...STACKED CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER DOWNEAST ME THIS
MORNING...AND A LITTLE PULSE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING SWD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF IT...WHICH IS HELPING TO SET OFF A SHSN/RA AND
SPKLS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD SHIFT SWD AND OFFSHORE
BY MIDDAY...WITH A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA /WITH JUST SN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/
MOVING AROUND 19-21Z...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WHICH GET UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT...AND THE ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
POPS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
RAP/HRRR/NCAR 3KM. TEMPS/SKY WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...WITH MORE SUN IN SRN NH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES THERE.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MAINE IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST
PART OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251356
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
956 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...
QUICK MASSAGE OF HRLY T/TD VALUES. DROPPED POPS ACRS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MRNG AS THINGS HV WOUND DOWN UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DVLP DRG THE AFTN HRS. AS IT
STANDS NOW FIRST S/WV HAS MVD TWD THE COAST WITH NEXT WV RMNG UP
IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.

THIS HAS PUT CWA SQUARE IN NVA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING UNTIL WV
CAN DROP CLOSER TO THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS MAY HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST IN COMBO WITH DIURNAL HTG. FOR
NOW, WL WORD PTYPE AS SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THRU 16Z BFR THICKNESSES
RISE ENUF FOR ALL LIQUID. QPF AMNTS WL BE LIGHT THRU TDA.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD
PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251356
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
956 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...
QUICK MASSAGE OF HRLY T/TD VALUES. DROPPED POPS ACRS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MRNG AS THINGS HV WOUND DOWN UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DVLP DRG THE AFTN HRS. AS IT
STANDS NOW FIRST S/WV HAS MVD TWD THE COAST WITH NEXT WV RMNG UP
IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.

THIS HAS PUT CWA SQUARE IN NVA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING UNTIL WV
CAN DROP CLOSER TO THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS MAY HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST IN COMBO WITH DIURNAL HTG. FOR
NOW, WL WORD PTYPE AS SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS THRU 16Z BFR THICKNESSES
RISE ENUF FOR ALL LIQUID. QPF AMNTS WL BE LIGHT THRU TDA.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD
PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD
PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD
PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0620 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO WORD
PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250854
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
454 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250854
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
454 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF MAINE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXISTING GRIDS. HAVE GENERATED THE
WIND GRIDS FROM MOSG25. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TERM AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.

STUBBORN LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PLAGUE THE CWA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK W/PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT W/TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(<1"). THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS/NAM SHOWED WARMER AIR
GETTING PULLED BACK TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER
KEEPING 925MB TEMPS AOB 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THIS SETUP AS THE
ECMWF COULD BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWINGS TEMPS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THIS MARITIMES AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE W DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD BE SEEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP W/THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY AND THEN PRECIP DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT
W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPS
WARMING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO GO RAIN SHOWERS. AT NIGHT, AS TEMPS COOL DOWN, PRECIP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS ONE IN
PLACE TAKE TIME TO PULL ESPECIALLY BEING VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTED INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COME MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE E. AS STATED ABOVE, HISTORICALLY, A PATTERN
SUCH AS THE ONE IN PLACE TAKES LONGER TO PULL OUT AND THAT THE
GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO FAST W/SHOWING IMPROVEMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z/4/24 AND 00Z/4/25 ECMWF. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS
TO SLOW UP THE CLEARING FOR 24 HRS AND DELAY THE LOW PULLING OUT
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MEAN UNSETTLED TO CONTINUE INTO AS
LEAST 1/2 OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK REGION. SO, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN A MILDER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY W/READINGS EDGING CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND LESS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THURSDAY W/SOME
SUN AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THEN, CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LOW MIGRATES E FOR FRIDAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.


SHORT TERM: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH THE LOWER CIGS COMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST PART W/MVFR EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY INCOMING SWELL 2
FEET/8 SECONDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE. AS WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO PREDOMINATE. WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES DROPS SSE AND THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP SOME. DECIDED ON 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS W/SEAS HITTING 6+ FT. CONDITIONS ARE SET
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGING
MOVES E. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE
IMPROVEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE IS
ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOME OF THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KIMBLE/KISTNER
MARINE...KIMBLE/KISTNER
FIRE WEATHER...KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE IS
ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOME OF THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KIMBLE/KISTNER
MARINE...KIMBLE/KISTNER
FIRE WEATHER...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE IS
ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOME OF THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KIMBLE/KISTNER
MARINE...KIMBLE/KISTNER
FIRE WEATHER...KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE IS
ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOME OF THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KIMBLE/KISTNER
MARINE...KIMBLE/KISTNER
FIRE WEATHER...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250434
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1234 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0030 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT PERIODS
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION
AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
START OF THE SHORT TERM PD WL BE THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE WITH
UPR LOW PLAGUING THE CWA WITH ROUND AFTER ROUND OF WVS MVG THRU. CHC
POPS WL CONTINUE OVR NW PORTIONS OF CWA SAT NGT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED
TO DROP TO NR AND/OR JUST BLO FRZG ACRS THE NORTH WOODS GIVEN
EXPECTED TEMP RISE INTO THE M40S ON SATURDAY AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR.

COLD POOL ROTATES BACK ACRS PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO
OFF AND ON SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS. FIRST WV LOOKS TO MV THRU IN
THE MRNG WITH A BRIEF BREAK BFR THE NEXT WV SCOOTS IN FM THE EAST
LATE AFTN. MAY EVEN SEE A CHC TO SEE THE SUN DRG THE DAY UNTIL IT
SELF-DESTRUCTS.

LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THRU THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES MIX IN TWD
MON MRNG BUT NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A DUSTING, AS BLYR
LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR STRAIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LOW BEGINS TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY THO LATEST 12Z
CMC MODEL KEEPS H5 TROF FM PARENT LOW PLAGUING CWA THRU THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HWVR, BOTH THE GFS AND EC BUILD IN BRIEF UPR LVL
RIDGING ON WED AND HV GONE WITH THE SUPERBLEND WITH VRY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF POPS AND ABV CLIMO VALUES FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. ANY
HEAVIER -SHSN EXPERIENCED MAY DROP TERMINALS DOWN TO BRIEF IFR.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT BHB AND BGR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEGINNING MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MATM1 WILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RISES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AREA WATERWAYS ARE RUNNING AT 150-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS STILL ICE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER AROUND
VAN BUREN...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250434
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1234 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0030 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT PERIODS
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION
AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
START OF THE SHORT TERM PD WL BE THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE WITH
UPR LOW PLAGUING THE CWA WITH ROUND AFTER ROUND OF WVS MVG THRU. CHC
POPS WL CONTINUE OVR NW PORTIONS OF CWA SAT NGT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED
TO DROP TO NR AND/OR JUST BLO FRZG ACRS THE NORTH WOODS GIVEN
EXPECTED TEMP RISE INTO THE M40S ON SATURDAY AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR.

COLD POOL ROTATES BACK ACRS PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO
OFF AND ON SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS. FIRST WV LOOKS TO MV THRU IN
THE MRNG WITH A BRIEF BREAK BFR THE NEXT WV SCOOTS IN FM THE EAST
LATE AFTN. MAY EVEN SEE A CHC TO SEE THE SUN DRG THE DAY UNTIL IT
SELF-DESTRUCTS.

LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THRU THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES MIX IN TWD
MON MRNG BUT NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A DUSTING, AS BLYR
LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR STRAIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LOW BEGINS TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY THO LATEST 12Z
CMC MODEL KEEPS H5 TROF FM PARENT LOW PLAGUING CWA THRU THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HWVR, BOTH THE GFS AND EC BUILD IN BRIEF UPR LVL
RIDGING ON WED AND HV GONE WITH THE SUPERBLEND WITH VRY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF POPS AND ABV CLIMO VALUES FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. ANY
HEAVIER -SHSN EXPERIENCED MAY DROP TERMINALS DOWN TO BRIEF IFR.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT BHB AND BGR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEGINNING MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MATM1 WILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RISES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AREA WATERWAYS ARE RUNNING AT 150-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS STILL ICE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER AROUND
VAN BUREN...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250204
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1004 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. COOL AND BRISK
NIGHT OUT THERE WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS IS STILL A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

638 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE MAINE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING AS
LIGHT SNOW /SOME LIGHT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS/ CONTINUES TO FALL
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION. LATER ON TONIGHT ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PART UPPER LOW AND PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ADJACENT
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE AREAS MAY PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS AND MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...AND WILL GO THROUGH SEVERAL
FUJIWARA WOBBLES AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US IN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE. ON
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING FROM NE-SW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUN
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH
CLOSED OFF OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND DRAGS IT SWD
OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO ERN ME MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/EURO/CMC STILL VARYING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. BY WED...GFS/EURO START TO BUILD SOME RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO MAY SEE MORE SUN AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS BY THEN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA AGAIN BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THRU QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE PREDOMINANT MVFR...WITH OCCNL IFR MON INTO MON NIGHT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA. SOME MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET ON THE WATERS. COULD SE WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AND MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250204
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1004 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. COOL AND BRISK
NIGHT OUT THERE WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS IS STILL A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

638 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE MAINE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING AS
LIGHT SNOW /SOME LIGHT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS/ CONTINUES TO FALL
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION. LATER ON TONIGHT ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PART UPPER LOW AND PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ADJACENT
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE AREAS MAY PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS AND MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...AND WILL GO THROUGH SEVERAL
FUJIWARA WOBBLES AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US IN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE. ON
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING FROM NE-SW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUN
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH
CLOSED OFF OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND DRAGS IT SWD
OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO ERN ME MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/EURO/CMC STILL VARYING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. BY WED...GFS/EURO START TO BUILD SOME RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO MAY SEE MORE SUN AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS BY THEN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA AGAIN BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THRU QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE PREDOMINANT MVFR...WITH OCCNL IFR MON INTO MON NIGHT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA. SOME MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET ON THE WATERS. COULD SE WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AND MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250204
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1004 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. COOL AND BRISK
NIGHT OUT THERE WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS IS STILL A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

638 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE MAINE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING AS
LIGHT SNOW /SOME LIGHT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS/ CONTINUES TO FALL
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION. LATER ON TONIGHT ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PART UPPER LOW AND PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ADJACENT
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE AREAS MAY PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS AND MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...AND WILL GO THROUGH SEVERAL
FUJIWARA WOBBLES AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US IN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE. ON
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING FROM NE-SW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUN
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH
CLOSED OFF OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND DRAGS IT SWD
OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO ERN ME MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/EURO/CMC STILL VARYING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. BY WED...GFS/EURO START TO BUILD SOME RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO MAY SEE MORE SUN AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS BY THEN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA AGAIN BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THRU QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE PREDOMINANT MVFR...WITH OCCNL IFR MON INTO MON NIGHT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA. SOME MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET ON THE WATERS. COULD SE WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AND MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250204
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1004 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. COOL AND BRISK
NIGHT OUT THERE WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS IS STILL A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

638 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE MAINE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING AS
LIGHT SNOW /SOME LIGHT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS/ CONTINUES TO FALL
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION. LATER ON TONIGHT ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PART UPPER LOW AND PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ADJACENT
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE AREAS MAY PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS AND MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...AND WILL GO THROUGH SEVERAL
FUJIWARA WOBBLES AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US IN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE. ON
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING FROM NE-SW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUN
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH
CLOSED OFF OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND DRAGS IT SWD
OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO ERN ME MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/EURO/CMC STILL VARYING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. BY WED...GFS/EURO START TO BUILD SOME RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO MAY SEE MORE SUN AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS BY THEN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA AGAIN BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THRU QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE PREDOMINANT MVFR...WITH OCCNL IFR MON INTO MON NIGHT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA. SOME MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET ON THE WATERS. COULD SE WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AND MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER




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